What lessons can we learn from the COVID19 pandemic?

SeaBreezes

I was listening to Dr. Mike Ryan being interviewed, and the last minute struck a chord with me.. He was asked going forward, what’s next and he questions where we spend our money for protection and where we want it spent in the future...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NFXE8Q-rQM

It ties in with a few other thoughts.. I came across this paper linking plagues/virus mutations with solar max/min. Pure speculation as correlation does not mean causation, but as we are at the start of a Dalton like minimum, the timing of this pandemic does seem to lend it weight..

https://urbancoldspots.blogspot.com/2020/03/pandemia-globale.html
The connection seems to be that when the levels of space radiation reach high values, like that of 2009, the virus mutation rate increases allowing them to adapt to new species, as in the case of 2019-nCoV and H1N1, and at the end of January 2020, the rate of spread of the virus between humans has increased.
Most likely, the epidemic will continue to spread in the coming months of 2020, according to data on the current state of the solar cycle 24, the levels of space radiation will rise further in 2020 is that in 2021 in line with the prolonged solar minimum will end in the course of 2022.

But that leads me to a bigger question. If we are in the firing line for possible pandemics during solar min, then we need to learn from this.
We need agile economies that can handle 2 month work from home/sporadic shutdowns.

We need economies and systems that serve people, not risking lives to keep the economy going.

What if the next pandemic is a bigger killer?
What if it kills children? Young people?

How do we change our economies/lives so we are ready?

biko

1 Close borders earlier
2 Test and quarantine everyone flying in
3 Keep supplies for the next pandemic

cryptocurrency

biko wrote: »

1 Close borders earlier
2 Test and quarantine everyone flying in
3 Keep supplies for the next pandemic

and that we need to be prepared.

The thing that has struck me the most is when it comes to the crunch the western world is a disaster in a crisis.

millb

cryptocurrency wrote: »

and that we need to be prepared.

The thing that has struck me the most is when it comes to the crunch the western world is a disaster in a crisis.

Yes the time factor is a critical issue...
Firstly in the business as usual situation ....... just-in-time (eg from China) and non-sustainable supply chains need to be examined and critical or strategic items need to be ranked for continuity and diversity of supply.

Obviously non-global / self-contained operations & infrastructure can work well. Strategic infrastructure can be made for "headspace" "conversion" "worst-case functionality" eg. National Broadband / Power utility etc has coped here in Ireland so far. Is our water supply as resilient? Do we future-proof things? For example Brexit planning was a blessing as regards retail goods and having full warehouses.. Hotels here are now step-down hospitals..

Logistics need to be resilient and diverse.. Planners of all sorts need to have technical and high-level insight..

Certain "self serving professions" bean-counters / vultures / egotistical influence rs / seller / agents / legal operators need to respect the originators, primary producers and givers such as farmers, processors, teaching and health-care professions and recognize longer-term inputs into society. The agents of the state need to be exercised /resourced for different situations and open to learning, use of technology, physiology, change etc. as well as doing the day to day activity.. Buffers are part of good planning. Ditto simulations and being part of the EU / UN / NGO as a global citizen.

Then in the political and policy level when stuff happens ,, the Crisis Managers need to maximise the team inputs and outputs. This is done on a national scale and in fairness we have seen a good amount of Leadership / Balance / Communication / Evolving and adapting measures (legislation / social welfare / HSE, Gardai) in a balanced and effective manner especially here in Ireland.

Well done to all who have and are making a difference ..;)

Red Alert

We need to consider if some expanded level of Civil Defence could help. For example, could we have a stand-by of people who are trained in keeping essential services running at a basic level? It would need a budget, and year-on-year training to be done, but it could form a really valuable civic endeavour.

Government need to identify a number of lockdown "levels", so that people known in advance what to expect. A bit like nuclear attack warnings in the UK/US during the cold war.

Sono Topolino

- People need to exercise better hygiene all around.
- Wearing masks outside should be normal behaviour like in Asia.
- Hospitals badly need surge capacity.

biko

Sono Topolino wrote: »

like in Asia

East Asia, as west Asia don't do this.

SeaBreezes

Definitely more preparation and faster response times.
Incentivise working from home? Be better for carbon emissions too.
Online learning for third level education, secondary too?
Mandatory masks per household.
Emergency funds to be triggered in response to disaster.
Mandate banks/utilities freeze in event of disaster. Jail for banks/companies who try to profit from the vulnerable (gouging, crazy high repayments.)

While I do applaud the Irish go response. The actions are not tying with the words exactly.
No PPE gear is huge.
Banks making money on future payments for those who need to freeze now is horrendous, especially as banks were bailed by the taxpayer.
Insurance companies not paying out, should be penalised.
Producing micro electricity per house (windmill etc) should be encouraged

A lot of this would help the environment too..

Wibbs

Tear down the WHO and rebuild so it's fit for purpose and throw proper resources at it.

Venom

Not depending on one single country for the worlds medical supplies would be nice.

Wibbs

Wibbs wrote: »

Tear down the WHO and rebuild so it's fit for purpose and throw proper resources at it.

Agreed although I'd like to see two? other organisations being formed to work alongside it. A single organisation becomes corrupt or too tied to politics. Competition for resources is always a healthy motivator for organisations to stay at the top of their game.

The US has their CDC. We need someone similar just for the EU, with a properly funded and staffed response force. Not a few people, but a serious commitment, because Covid will not be an isolated case. We're going to be seeing more such viruses, if not worse in the future.

Sleeper12

Don't eat bat's

Damien360

biko wrote: »

1 Close borders earlier
2 Test and quarantine everyone flying in
3 Keep supplies for the next pandemic

1. Yes
2. Not practical as we don’t have a test that can measure in minutes. Also you obliterate your economy.
3. Trump mentioned a better one. Why are we (meaning US) reliant on a foreign nation for all our supplies. First and foremost it should be made in the EU and purchased for the EU.

The PPE mess is case and point. Reliant on Chinese supply entirely. What if they said no. I would extend that to all food (sugar from Africa etc shouldn’t happen). Drugs might be harder to implement. Manufacturing plants must be EU for the EU market even if their owners are US. That could damage Ireland’s economy.

Point 3 closes the global economy somewhat but essentials should be local (meaning EU) sources.

Damien360

Damien360 wrote: »

2. Not practical as we don’t have a test that can measure in minutes. Also you obliterate your economy.

Quarantining people for two weeks before allowing them to mingle... wouldn't obliterate any economy. If anything it's an extra money maker. Given time with research, I'm sure they'll come up with a better scanning system... People don't need to be tested and passed in minutes. They can be held for some time, because we're going to be seeing a reduction in air traffic anyway.

Guy:Incognito

biko wrote: »

East Asia, as west Asia don't do this.

and they do it because of very high levels of pollution do they not?

storker

Wibbs wrote: »

Tear down the WHO and rebuild so it's fit for purpose and throw proper resources at it.

The WHO shoudln't be a diplomatic organisation. Pathogens don't care about diplomacy. The WHO should be guided by medical science, always.

KathleenGrant

As said already better preparation, just in case.
Take schools for example. Many of them were not set up for distance teaching and learning. Many of them will have a plan from now on. Ok maybe not needed for pandemics but snow days, hurricanes, flooding in some towns etc.

storker

Other non-pandemic lessons:

1. Reducing emissions isn't quite as difficult as you might think.
   
2. Remote working works. Employers should get over themselves and stop getting hung up over bums on seats, except of course where a job can't be done without a particular bum on a particular seat.
   
3. Wash your bloody hands! Anyone leaving the bathroom without washing their hands should be outed and shamed. And put in the pillory.
   
4. Likewise for people who bring their illnesses into work, and employers with HR policies that encourage/force them to do so.
   
5. If you need critical supplies of something, don't leave yourself reliant on a supplier on the other side of the world. Make more stuff in Europe.

lawrencesummers

We need proper legislation around the declaration of an emergency that allows us to do a number of things, for a temporary period without the usual levels of bureaucracy.

To have control over our boarders from restrictions right up to closures during the time an emergency is in effect, no matter what the EU or the US is doing.

This same legislation should be able to grant temporary rights where the government can take control without seeking permission or cooperation of any and all venues such as stadiums, racecourses, halls, college campuses, private hospitals, all airports, sporting clubs, funeral homes, crematoriums and pretty much any other venue that is deemed necessary during an emergency.

The powers of the Gardaí should be extended and conviction of Prosecutable offenses such as theft, looting, and assaulting emergency service employees Etc during an emergency should carry Automatic custodial sentences.

We have been caught out with the Seanad not being elected because legislation cannot be passed, there should be a temporary way to pass legislation during an emergency in an efficient manner, currently the Gardaí have no legal power to stop people going anywhere past the 2km

storker

KathleenGrant wrote: »

As said already better preparation, just in case.
Take schools for example. Many of them were not set up for distance teaching and learning. Many of them will have a plan from now on. Ok maybe not needed for pandemics but snow days, hurricanes, flooding in some towns etc.

Or even a few days a month to reduce emissions. Also, teachers seem to rarely live in the town in which they work. A few days break from the commute would do them and the kids good.

(Let's see if that generates the usual Pavlovian response... )

LoughNeagh2017

We learn that the governments only care about high paid people, I was expected to attend work in the food factory and it even made the TV news for not playing with the rules. I left my wage slave position even though they offered me £25 per week bonus, it was nonsensical to continue working there whenever the Romanians weren't even acknowledging the social distance measures. My uncle kept his kitchen manufacturing company open even though every other company in the area is shut, he saw some people insult him on Facebook and he sacked them the next day.

LoughNeagh2017

LoughNeagh2017 wrote: »

We learn that the governments only care about high paid people, I was expected to attend work in the food factory and it even made the TV news for not playing with the rules. I left my wage slave position even though they offered me £25 per week bonus, it was nonsensical to continue working there whenever the Romanians weren't even acknowledging the social distance measures. My uncle kept his kitchen manufacturing company open even though every other company in the area is shut, he saw some people insult him on Facebook and he sacked them the next day.

One thing is certain is that you appear to be a lazy git and your uncle is most likely going to face an employment tribunal.

Manach

Having borders that are under control and with checks on incoming people would be key. This has only been known about since about 400 B.C. so there might be chance this could be implement next time.

SeaBreezes

storker wrote: »

The WHO shoudln't be a diplomatic organisation. Pathogens don't care about diplomacy. The WHO should be guided by medical science, always.

Agreed. But people being people the world over, no matter how idealistic an organisation is in the beginning, politics will always take over.

SeaBreezes

lawrencesummers wrote: »

We need proper legislation around the declaration of an emergency that allows us to do a number of things, for a temporary period without the usual levels of bureaucracy.

To have control over our boarders from restrictions right up to closures during the time an emergency is in effect, no matter what the EU or the US is doing.

This same legislation should be able to grant temporary rights where the government can take control without seeking permission or cooperation of any and all venues such as stadiums, racecourses, halls, college campuses, private hospitals, all airports, sporting clubs, funeral homes, crematoriums and pretty much any other venue that is deemed necessary during an emergency.

The powers of the Gardaí should be extended and conviction of Prosecutable offenses such as theft, looting, and assaulting emergency service employees Etc during an emergency should carry Automatic custodial sentences.

We have been caught out with the Seanad not being elected because legislation cannot be passed, there should be a temporary way to pass legislation during an emergency in an efficient manner, currently the Gardaí have no legal power to stop people going anywhere past the 2km

I dunno. Checks and balances on all forms of power that can be granted is a good thing. Imagine what a power hungry wannabe dictator could do with those checks removed...

Pete_Cavan

Manach wrote: »

Having borders that are under control and with checks on incoming people would be key. This has only been known about since about 400 B.C. so there might be chance this could be implement next time.

There is no chance that all 300 crossings on our border with NI can be controlled, particularly at short notice. We really need an all island response for things like this but of course Arlene and the lads will never allow that.

KathleenGrant

My son in law works for a multi-national organisation. As do 2 nephews and a niece. All of a sudden they can work from home and their office space is no longer necessary.

Salary Negotiator

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Imagine what a power hungry wannabe dictator could do with those checks removed...

Like in Hungary!

lawrencesummers

SeaBreezes wrote: »

I dunno. Checks and balances on all forms of power that can be granted is a good thing. Imagine what a power hungry wannabe dictator could do with those checks removed...

If we lived in a dictatorship then fine.
But the declaration of a state of emergency is a temporary thing, and limited in time to the emergency only. It’s a time when normal administration is unable to happen and decisions have to be taken quickly.

States of emergency would end and the politicians that administered during that time would be subject to accountability and re election like normal.

Not having the power to stop airline travel because of our position in the EU has been a problem.

paw patrol

on a personal level , don't believe the government or HSE blindly and don't parrot their advice.

masks don't help :rolleyes:
Use your own brain.


on a political level , it's been said above.
stop relying on 3rd world slave labour for your stuff , we can't eat the produce of the IFSC, nor can we wear it

SeaBreezes

lawrencesummers wrote: »

If we lived in a dictatorship then fine.
But the declaration of a state of emergency is a temporary thing, and limited in time to the emergency only. It’s a time when normal administration is unable to happen and decisions have to be taken quickly.

States of emergency would end and the politicians that administered during that time would be subject to accountability and re election like normal.

Not having the power to stop airline travel because of our position in the EU has been a problem.

But we do have the power?

Thestones

As soon as an new outbreak is detected all borders to that region must be closed immediately, all over the world too slow to react, flights still going all over the place from infected hotspots. Too afraid to upset other countries by banning flights, look where we are now. From Ireland’s perspective letting flights from Italy was a major mistake when it was the worst hit country. On another note when did flights stop leaving Wuhan? I find it amazing that China somehow stopped it spreading outside that province to the rest of China but it was let to spread to rest of world?

lawrencesummers

paw patrol wrote: »

on a personal level , don't believe the government or HSE blindly and don't parrot their advice.

masks don't help :rolleyes:
Use your own brain.


on a political level , it's been said above.
stop relying on 3rd world slave labour for your stuff , we can't eat the produce of the IFSC, nor can we wear it

If you were working with sick patients you wouldn’t wear a mask so?

plodder

lawrencesummers wrote: »

We need proper legislation around the declaration of an emergency that allows us to do a number of things, for a temporary period without the usual levels of bureaucracy.

To have control over our boarders from restrictions right up to closures during the time an emergency is in effect, no matter what the EU or the US is doing.

This same legislation should be able to grant temporary rights where the government can take control without seeking permission or cooperation of any and all venues such as stadiums, racecourses, halls, college campuses, private hospitals, all airports, sporting clubs, funeral homes, crematoriums and pretty much any other venue that is deemed necessary during an emergency.

The powers of the Gardaí should be extended and conviction of Prosecutable offenses such as theft, looting, and assaulting emergency service employees Etc during an emergency should carry Automatic custodial sentences.

We have been caught out with the Seanad not being elected because legislation cannot be passed, there should be a temporary way to pass legislation during an emergency in an efficient manner, currently the Gardaí have no legal power to stop people going anywhere past the 2km

I think that is due to the fact that regulations under the new emergency health act have not been passed by the Minister for Health, which is strange because some regulations have recently been passed. But, definitely the whole legal framework we need to have in place for a crisis like this does not seem to be adequate right now.

Beyond that, it's very early to be looking for broader lessons. As a society I think we have coped fairly well so far. The big question is the level of economic damage and cost that results.

KiKi III

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Agreed although I'd like to see two? other organisations being formed to work alongside it. A single organisation becomes corrupt or too tied to politics. Competition for resources is always a healthy motivator for organisations to stay at the top of their game.

The US has their CDC. We need someone similar just for the EU, with a properly funded and staffed response force. Not a few people, but a serious commitment, because Covid will not be an isolated case. We're going to be seeing more such viruses, if not worse in the future.

Ummm, this already exists. It’s even called the European CDC.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en

paw patrol

lawrencesummers wrote: »

If you were working with sick patients you wouldn’t wear a mask so?

indeed, that's why their advise was plain lies

Idbatterim

they really need to start putting aside even more for "rainy days" jesus , I thought it would be economic mismanagment that sank us again, you dont expect it to be a deadly virus!

Thelonious Monk

I hope we learn that we don't need to consume tonnes of rubbish just for the sake of it. Government policy just seems to be economic growth at all costs, but every time a Penney's or H&M or car dealership makes a sale we're doing damage to the planet.
Most of us can manage as long as we have food and shelter (and off licences!), but we still seem hell bent on converting the planet into a human rubbish tip.
Maybe we'll all be able to live with less after this and give the planet a break, I hope that's the lesson we learn anyway.
Reality is we'll go back to as bad as we were and worse if this ever blows over until the next global crisis.

ednwireland

biko wrote: »

3 Keep supplies for the next pandemic

the HSE are order ing more supplies in than they would use for a normal several years, this stuff goes out of date so you would spend 100's of millions buying stuff to throw away when it goes out of date.

honestly this is the problem, with pandemics you cant prepare do you store 6 months of food in your house ?

slowing the spread is proabaly the best option, the saturday before the start of the restrictions my boss flew back through belfast international and there were holiday flights full heading to spain.

the people coming form anywhere should have been quarantined somehow, although how you square this with civil liberties i dont know

cryptocurrency

Deleted User wrote: »

Agreed although I'd like to see two? other organisations being formed to work alongside it. A single organisation becomes corrupt or too tied to politics. Competition for resources is always a healthy motivator for organisations to stay at the top of their game.

The US has their CDC. We need someone similar just for the EU, with a properly funded and staffed response force. Not a few people, but a serious commitment, because Covid will not be an isolated case. We're going to be seeing more such viruses, if not worse in the future.

But can we blame all the two week new virus on a two week window the previous 3 months and do nothing inbetween? If we can't then whats the point

cryptocurrency

cryptocurrency wrote: »

But can we blame all the two week new virus on a two week window the previous 3 months and do nothing inbetween? If we can't then whats the point

I'm not particularly interested in blaming anyone. The virus happened. The virus spread. And we (the world) don't have an effective counter to such viruses by having decent organisations designed and funded to counter such threats.

This is not about blame. There's plenty of that to pass around if people are being honest with themselves. Rather, this is about what we do next, how we settle the existing virus, and prepare ourselves for the next. This could have been so much worse. How would we have reacted to a different strain of Ebola that managed to spread? Not well.

So. I'd like to see a more balanced approach which means, for me, to have a number of organisations aimed at such threats, properly funded by all nations, and reviewed regularly to prevent connections being created with any particular donor or political/national agenda.