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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Spring 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

  • 03-04-2020 7:50pm
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Mod Note

    This thread is for posting / discussing /analyzing charts up to T120 ( in the more reliable time frame).

    If your post does not specifically relate to the charts then it doesn't belong here off topic posts will be moved- please use the Seasonal Discussion thread for general chat.

    Thanks.




    The following week up to Easter is looking quite mild and unsettled. Temperatures could get to the high teens at times if we get lucky with some sunshine. Some nice warm southerly winds.

    GFSOPEU12_48_1.png

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    high pressure close to us during mid week, but unsettled conditions spreading from the west:

    GFSOPEU12_120_1.png

    GFSOPEU12_135_2.png

    A few places could see 17 or 18C next week.

    There will be rain or showers at times, but nothing too wet. Temperatures really lifting up from this weekend onwards.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64969&var=201&run=12&date=2020-04-03&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1


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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Great to see the temperatures picking up . Tomorrow looks decent in places getting up to 15 or 16C especially in the midlands, will be watching for a fohn effect with possibly higher temperatures locally helped along by the blustery S / SE wind

    Charts still showing next Weds and Thurs getting the best temperatures of 16 to 18C especially Thurs, Fri not bad also.

    Tomorrow wettest in Southern counties but looking like not much after that.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Will we get up to 19 or 20 C on Thurs ? Looks like it could become wet later. Humid.

    Weds looking good for 18C in parts.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    if luck is on our side and if the bands of rain stay out to the west a bit more at the end of the week, it's possible that 20C could be achieved in the Phoenix Park or Oak Park on Thursday if we can get some decent spells of sunshine and light winds.

    Looks to be a cracking week to come across much of England with low 20's at times there. It's going to be tough to keep the lockdown going with this sort of weather over the next 4 or 5 days.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    after a few really warm and sunny days it has felt more like mid July than early April. It turns cooler from Saturday, but Saturday itself still mild for the time of year.

    GFSOPUK18_45_5.png

    Sunday is going to be a shock to the system for many with temperature plunging back into single digits, up to 10C cooler than tomorrows values, with many areas struggling to get much past 8C.

    GFSOPUK18_69_5.png

    Temperatures stage a slight recovery to normal values on Easter Monday:
    GFSOPUK18_93_5.png

    A frost for many on Monday night:
    GFSOPUK18_108_5.png


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  • Registered Users Posts: 475 ✭✭ bazlers


    Is Sunday looking like a wash out for the midlands?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    bazlers wrote: »
    Is Sunday looking like a wash out for the midlands?

    Sunday is looking like a write-off across the country including the midlands, cold and wet like a wet December's day.

    GFSOPUK06_54_5.png

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    66-777UK.GIF?10-6

    57-574UK.GIF?10-6


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Hp never far away over the coming week, quite weather coming week, little rainfall. Temps recovering slowly from Monday after the drop on Sunday which looks best in the SW and each day after getting up to the mid teens in places and possibly higher around Thurs. Cool calm nights under clear skies with a touch of frost possible in places where there is enough clear skies.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Lp waiting in the wings to bring some slow moving rain bands tomorrow under a cooler air mass, S and SE counties look to get the heaviest rain as the LP pirouettes as it moves slowly S

    Will be a big let down after today but Hp building in again as the LP clears on Monday, temps not bad Monday in the SW but low enough elsewhere.

    NASA Sat Pic earlier today.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Decent temperatures away from Eastern coasts for much of the week coming, onshore wind keeping temperatures lower in the East, getting warmer towards Thurs to the high teens. Rainfall amounts very little to none.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Losing the fine weather into next week,becoming cooler and LP looks to arrive around Tues in from the W probably sending in frontal bands and introducing a more unstable atmosphere, potential for thunderstorms Tues or more so Weds perhaps. Windier than of late along the coasts but nothing out of the ordinary showing up at this stage.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    The models have eased off on rainfall totals up to Weds. Looks like the LP approaching Tuesday keeping well offshore and it's associated fronts making their approach later Tues early Weds. Winds not as prominent on the latest runs also, probably breezy at best Weds along the coasts at this stage. Possibly a chance of thunderstorms Weds and Thurs.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Gradients tightening as one of the low centers deepens as it moves up off the SW and W coasts bringing some strong winds running along the coasts for a time giving a small craft warning for all coasts of force 6 or higher. Later Weds night / Thurs morning another area of Lp bringing strong winds near the SE coast.

    Will feel windier than normal as it has been so calm of late.



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    Would be very hard to predict anywhere near exact rainfalls but as there are a few different centers of Lp within the system pirouetting around near and in over Ireland there is potential for some big totals in places be it from frontal rain or convection with the possibility of some localized flooding I reckon given how dry and hard the soil is atm.

    Charts showing some areas getting 30 or 40 mm up to Thurs night.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    A cold plunge will arrive from Sunday afternoon with an impressive 10C drop in upper air temperatures over a very short period of time.

    Day time temperatures will struggle in the high single digits/low teens for Sunday evening and into Monday and Tuesday.

    Frost is possible on Sunday night:
    GFSOPUK06_93_5.png


    Night time temperatures will be very chilly on Monday night, sub-zero across most of the country and a hard frost in many places. Very unusual to get a hard frost in the middle of May.

    GFSOPUK06_117_5.png

    another frost on Tuesday night, temperatures close of freezing across the country.

    GFSOPUK06_141_5.png

    still a cold night on Wednesday, but temperatures starting to recover after this.
    GFSOPUK06_165_5.png

    Sunday night to Tuesday night will certainly be ones to watch for gardeners, growers and farmers, very unusual to get several nights of frost this late in the year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,030 ✭✭✭ Oneiric 3


    Forecast temperature anomaly for Saturday noon:

    GUHFzih.png


    And then for 24hrs later:

    tMBJclL.png

    A notable change, though out of the breeze and within the sun, should still feel pretty OK out during this cooler snap. Risk of ground frost is real though so gardeners beware.

    New Moon



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    after a dry start this weekend turns wet across the west and north. All areas at risk of some rain by Sunday evening.

    Showers in the northern half of the country tomorrow Saturday, nothing too heavy.

    33-574UK.GIF?15-6

    light showers throughout Sunday but a more organised band of rain or showers by Sunday evening, the north-west will have the hightest rainfall totals up to 15mm in places.

    60-574UK.GIF?15-6

    63-574UK.GIF?15-6

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    Monday to Wednesday looks fairly dry and warm. Next Thursday is looking like a washout for many, hopefully this will downgraded alot over the coming few days.


  • Registered Users Posts: 928 ✭✭✭ compsys


    Gonzo wrote: »
    after a dry start this weekend turns wet across the west and north. All areas at risk of some rain by Sunday evening.

    Showers in the northern half of the country tomorrow Saturday, nothing too heavy.

    33-574UK.GIF?15-6

    light showers throughout Sunday but a more organised band of rain or showers by Sunday evening, the north-west will have the hightest rainfall totals up to 15mm in places.

    60-574UK.GIF?15-6

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    Monday to Wednesday looks fairly dry and warm. Next Thursday is looking like a washout for many, hopefully this will downgraded alot over the coming few days.

    A bit of rain may be no bad thing at this stage Gonzo. Like how long do we really want to go without rainfall? I don't think I could cope with quarantine AND water rationing!

    Also, the dry spell has to end eventually. It's Ireland after all. So I'd prefer the good weather to end now and maybe come back again for a week or two in both June and July when the East coast might get some actual warmth. Anything in August would be a bonus.

    I kinda feel like the longer this dry and settled period goes on the longer the bad weather will be when it eventually returns. Don't think I could cope with a bad June, July and August.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    after a very chilly week just gone, things are set to warm up alot over the next 3 to 4 days. We will notice it slightly milder tomorrow but it's really Monday where we start to see Summer temperatures.

    A nice day on Monday with decent sunny spells, especially in eastern and southern areas. Temperatures widely up to the high teens and may touch 20C in a few locations. Limerick/Shannon areas may see the highest temperatures.

    57-580UK.GIF?16-6

    Tuesday could be the best day of the week with high teens, possibly low 20's across many areas. Dublin to Shannon look like being the warmest spots, a few places could reach 21 or 22C.

    81-580UK.GIF?16-6

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    We have one more fine and warm day on Wednesday, maybe a few degree's down on Tuesday, high teens touching 20C or 21C in most places.
    102-580UK.GIF?16-6

    Much cooler from Thursday and unsettled, but we'll cross that bridge closer to the time.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Jet firing up and the ECM showing a vigorous Lp moving close to us late Thurs /Early Fri bringing strong wind and rain, not as strong from the GFS but it did lean more towards the ECM on the latest run.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Fairly good agreement of some type of unsettled weather Thurs evening into Fri, in general showing very windy atm up along Atlantic coasts and more so in the W and NW but early days yet, could be a good shot of rainfall in the W/ NW.

    ECM 12Z out soon


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Thursday is now looking a much better day with the low taking longer to get here. Friday looks nasty if the ECM is to be believed, particulary for Mayo, Sligo and Donegal with some very strong winds, almost stormy looking conditions.

    ECMOPEU12_120_1.png

    GFS keeps the low and very strong winds to the north-west of Scotland so it doesn't look quite as bad.

    GFSOPEU12_120_1.png

    However it does look like next weekend is going to be a cool and unsettled one.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Thursday is now looking a much better day with the low taking longer to get here. Friday looks nasty if the ECM is to be believed, particulary for Mayo, Sligo and Donegal with some very strong winds, almost stormy looking conditions.

    Yeah looks very windy if not a bit stormy on the latest ECM 12Z, showing very strong winds for the time of the year but long way off and will take until around Tues or Weds to have a more accurate picture. Quite wet looking but that will be a relief for the growth .

    Deeper on this run. Left exit from the Jet.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    The forecast on RTE1 after the news mentioned next Friday's possibly very windy conditions and it could also be accompanied by alot of rain.

    The ECM is currently going for the windiest scenario with winds up to 120km/h in western and north-western areas. I doubt winds will be this severe in reality.

    ECU4-120.GIF?17-0

    GFS has the strongest of the winds well out to our west and north but still a windy picture on both Friday and Saturday.

    108-289UK.GIF?17-12

    150-289UK.GIF?17-12

    Icon going for a fairly windy Friday as well, close to 100km/h in places.
    iconeu_uk1-11-117-0.png?17-17

    Next Friday and the weekend will certainly take some getting used to, could be a shock to the system with some fairly wild and wet conditions. Plenty of rain as well over the country throughout the weekend going by current models.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Models in fairly good agreement at this stage of a deepening LP moving up off the W coast early Fri am/ afternoon. ECM deepening to 970 hPa and GFS to 968 hPa. Looks very windy at this stage for the time of year but still a bit out before we know for sure.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM 12Z showing widespread gusting 80 to 90 km/h across the country during Friday ( less so in the SE ) and showing gusting up to 100 km/h in parts of the Northern half of the country during the afternoon.

    Gusting 100 to 110 up along coastal counties in the W and NW. Bit to go yet for adjustments.

    Of the most reliable ECM looking about the strongest at the moment.

    Heavy frontal rain going through Thurs night into Fri morning, winds initially from the SSE and later veering to the SW, showers and some longer spells of rain to follow on Fri, some possibly thundery I reckon.

    Very strong Jet.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,962 ✭✭✭ Chris_5339762


    First weekend of everyone back at work after seven weeks of generally nice weather and theres a storm. Cursed!!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,477 ✭✭✭ Comhrá


    Water butts on the ready!


  • Registered Users Posts: 691 ✭✭✭ SnowyMuckish


    First weekend of everyone back at work after seven weeks of generally nice weather and theres a storm. Cursed!!!

    The luck of the Irish!


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,391 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    Status Yellow - Wind warning for Galway and Mayo

    Through Thursday night and Friday, south to southeast winds, veering southwesterly will reach mean speeds of 45 to 65 km/hr with gusts of 85 to 110 Km/hr, mainly in coastal areas and on exposed hills and mountains.

    Valid: 21:00 Thursday 21/05/2020 to 18:00 Friday 22/05/2020

    Issued: 11:00 Wednesday 20/05/2020


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,455 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Latest model runs showing the frontal rain arriving earlier tomorrow evening around 18.00 -19.00, some heavy rain for a time in Kerry , Cork and Waterford perhaps. Blustery during the frontal passage. Windy overnight along Atlantic coasts and later wind strengthening across Ireland. Models suggest more counties might come under the Yellow wind warning, more so in the Northern half of the country, possibly Clare also. Going to feel much windier with the trees in full bloom, possibly have small debris flying about the place in the afternoon. Some heavy squally showers. Much cooler for most on Fri, the E hanging on to the highest temperatures it would seem of around 16 or 17C, low teens for much of the country. Some thunderstorm interest in the SW Fri afternoon / evening perhaps. Will see what the ECM 12Z brings out.


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