How bad will the global recession be?

Mantis Toboggan

Best week for the S&P since 1974! Markets extremely volatile and the rebound has been unprecedented.

feargale

daheff wrote: »

And in Jan Feb China were the only country in shutdown.

Absolute BS conspiracy theory. Next!

Would people please cut out this "next" cliché. You are not a shop assistant. Or are you?

BrokenArrows

I just don't understand the markets right now.

Day after day of stock market increases but the papers are filled with warnings of GDP hits of 30+% globally. The sort of stuff that only happened after world wars.

Is this all because governments are pumping money j to the economies on a massive scale? What's going to happen when they stop?

4068ac1elhodqr

BrokenArrows wrote: »

Day after day of stock market increases but the papers are filled with warnings of GDP hits of 30+% globally. The sort of stuff that only happened after world wars.

The (-)30% GDP is for Q2 only. There is an expectation of some normalisation during the summer, and maybe beyond (wave2 factor won't be known until around November).


Any WW is perma-damage, this event is simply a shutters down on the business world, but a press of a button will bring those shutters back up again ready for trading, as before.

BrokenArrows

Gerardo Quick Wiretap wrote: »

The (-)30% GDP is for Q2 only. There is an expectation of some normalisation during the summer, and maybe beyond (wave2 factor won't be known until around November).


Any WW is perma-damage, this event is simply a shutters down on the business world, but a press of a button will bring those shutters back up again ready for trading, as before.

But it's not just for q2. This problem is not going anywhere soon. The lockdowns will be extended multiple time and nothing is returning to normal until a vaccine

Jim2007

Gerardo Quick Wiretap wrote: »

Any WW is perma-damage, this event is simply a shutters down on the business world, but a press of a button will bring those shutters back up again ready for trading, as before.

That is just wishful thinking. First of all the lockdown doe not solve anything it is simply a means of buying some time and right now it looks we are going to need a lot more time probably about five years before we get it under control. So some things will remain in lock down over the long run, some restrictions will be relaxed only to be reintroduced and new outbreaks of the virus are likely and this will have impacts on manufacturing processes.

If we find the lockdowns because a regular feature then things automation, robotics and universal income all come into play. That combined with people’s experience of living under lockdown will impact people’s behavior, values and expectations.

And of course we can’t ignore the vast amounts of money being pumped into the economies that is not matched with a similar growth in production....

I expect the new normal will be different to the old one.

Mach 3

BrokenArrows wrote: »

I just don't understand the markets right now.

Day after day of stock market increases but the papers are filled with warnings of GDP hits of 30+% globally. The sort of stuff that only happened after world wars.

Is this all because governments are pumping money j to the economies on a massive scale? What's going to happen when they stop?

Have a of this:
https://www.blackrockblog.com/2020/04/13/uncertainty-and-investment-opportunities/

It never seems to work out straight away, with positioning and the usual market shake outs, but the big guys are going to follow the Fed and other Central banks. Implies old models are out the window.

JMMCapital

FYI.
Source: IMF

Jim2007

BrokenArrows wrote: »

I just don't understand the markets right now.

Day after day of stock market increases but the papers are filled with warnings of GDP hits of 30+% globally. The sort of stuff that only happened after world wars.

Is this all because governments are pumping money j to the economies on a massive scale? What's going to happen when they stop?

Did you ever? Or did you just think you did because some of equations, graphs or charts seemed to bring simple order for a short period to something that is essentially complex and chaotic?

If you want to try and understand what is going on right now, then go study the history of depressions and financial crisis and human behavior....

What is happening now is not that unusual, in any crisis most money is not lost at the point of impact, but in the days, weeks, months and even years immediately after the event. The smart money is already gone into defensive positions, the traders continue to gamble adding momentum and the dumb money is just starting to enter the market....

Zenify

Jim2007 wrote: »

Did you ever? Or did you just think you did because some of equations, graphs or charts seemed to bring simple order for a short period to something that is essentially complex and chaotic?

If you want to try and understand what is going on right now, then go study the history of depressions and financial crisis and human behavior....

What is happening now is not that unusual, in any crisis most money is not lost at the point of impact, but in the days, weeks, months and even years immediately after the event. The smart money is already gone into defensive positions, the traders continue to gamble adding momentum and the dumb money is just starting to enter the market....

I agree.

I was having a look on the investment forum and there was people saying buy this stock it's only x price right now. That's a bargain compared to what it was 3 months ago. Nothing about value or the future.

Never underestimate the stupidity of people.

Mad_maxx

No one knows if this is going to be a "depression", we won't know for a long time

Not even Jim and he knows more than your average bear

FernandoTorres

Mach 3 wrote: »

Have a of this:
https://www.blackrockblog.com/2020/04/13/uncertainty-and-investment-opportunities/

It never seems to work out straight away, with positioning and the usual market shake outs, but the big guys are going to follow the Fed and other Central banks. Implies old models are out the window.

This reads like a fantasy piece. If you want an impartial view, do not look to the blog of the worlds largest asset manager!

Mach 3

FernandoTorres wrote: »

This reads like a fantasy piece. If you want an impartial view, do not look to the blog of the worlds largest asset manager!

Your critique implies you would do the opposite.

Is this the case?

Mantis Toboggan

Will be Interesting to see how bad the quarterly reports are.

Jim2007

Mach 3 wrote: »

Your critique implies you would do the opposite.

Is this the case?

Pay attention to what you are being told... you're basically posting links to advertisements!

Stop listening to talking heads, these guys are not there for your benefit, they are basically trying to talk their clients out of moving their funds....

Mach 3

Jim2007 wrote: »

Pay attention to what you are being told... you're basically posting links to advertisements!

Stop listening to talking heads, these guys are not there for your benefit, they are basically trying to talk their clients out of moving their funds....

Yes Jim, and you will note there was a healthy dollop of skepticism in my assessment of the piece.

Nobody knows yet which companies are going to survive or be bailed out. look at JC Penny.
One depression in the last century does not pass as empirical evidence neither does the small amount of recessions. All I can do is measure what I am going to do and what central banks are doing and model from there.

BrokenArrows

a healthy dose of realism in the global markets today.

Mach 3

"Open America Again"....

dotsman

A lot of cynical views here! Yes, a lot of small business in the service industry are going to have a tough time, as well as the tourist industry in general.

The real question, that nobody can answer right now, is how things pan out over the next year. If we are able to get back to "relative normal" in a month or two. Then most businesses will be fine; a bad year, but they can get back on their feet no problem. However, if we are stuck in "relative lockdown" for the next year, then some will go to the wall.

But that is only those industries. Tech, Finance, Pharma, Legal etc will plough on. Some will take a temp dent to their 2020 profits, others will get a temp boost to profits.

As of today, my investment portfolio is up 8% this year.

Mach 3

Jim2007 wrote: »

That is just wishful thinking. First of all the lockdown doe not solve anything it is simply a means of buying some time and right now it looks we are going to need a lot more time probably about five years before we get it under control. So some things will remain in lock down over the long run, some restrictions will be relaxed only to be reintroduced and new outbreaks of the virus are likely and this will have impacts on manufacturing processes.

If we find the lockdowns because a regular feature then things automation, robotics and universal income all come into play. That combined with people’s experience of living under lockdown will impact people’s behavior, values and expectations.

And of course we can’t ignore the vast amounts of money being pumped into the economies that is not matched with a similar growth in production....

I expect the new normal will be different to the old one.

How do you see things playing out from here Jim?