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Corona and land prices

  • 26-03-2020 12:11am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,826 ✭✭✭✭


    What do people think about the effect on land prices due to corona? Both direct and secondary effects?

    Anyone in the market for land or have been keeping an eye on prices? Have you noticed any changes? Maybe had an auctioneer/seller come back to you at a previously refused offer price?

    I'd imagine that interest will slow up a bit, but that a lot of places will be held back for at least a few months.

    I read a fair bit on another forum of people pulling out of sale-agreed houses over the last couple of weeks.


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,685 ✭✭✭Cavanjack


    Have my eye on a bit of middling land near by. Was hoping to get it for 5k an acre but I’m now hoping it’ll be closer to 4K. It’s not bad land, a bit wet but it can grow grass well in the summer.
    No dairy farmers around, a few part timers that were working in a factory which is now shut. These might have been interested but the longer this goes on the less interest they’ll have in it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,442 ✭✭✭Waffletraktor


    The arse is falling out of the world economy, i’d expect sone effect for a few years as headed for a reccesion.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 3,357 Mod ✭✭✭✭K.G.


    Its too early for effects to show but there is alot of unknowns.
    Farm gate prices hard to call
    Interest rates and money availability
    Will anybody in a position to hold off selling stall for a couple of years
    Lack of money and appetite in the general economy dampen interest in land purchases
    If it does get hold in the general population with a high mortality in the older generation will it result in a flood of farms coming on the market.
    Whatever your position has been up to this id be very surprised if this dosent put a hole in it-wages, lost rent right off,business disruption and asset right downs


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,266 ✭✭✭Dozer1


    land is over valued for the last while in my area at least.
    either Brexit, new CAP or Corona are going to bring a correction.

    I've a sale almost complete and I was planning on paying down other loans with the proceeds but might just hold tough for a few months and see what appears.

    I can make current repayments and might be an opportunity to expand at the right price.

    that said I would not like to benefit from anyone's misfortune, hearing some sad cases starting to emerge and I would only consider those places if I was approached by the seller as an act of good faith as who knows what's ahead of us all.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,826 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    I was trying to buy a small bit about a year ago. I made the highest offer at that time and it wasn't accepted.

    I think it's still for sale. Although there was a rumour going around that someone else was trying to buy it just before people became aware of the corona. I thought that the asking price was a bit overvalued before corona.......would be interesting to see if the rumour is true and if the deal is closed..


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,826 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Dozer1 wrote: »
    land is over valued for the last while in my area at least.
    either Brexit, new CAP or Corona are going to bring a correction.

    I've a sale almost complete and I was planning on paying down other loans with the proceeds but might just hold tough for a few months and see what appears.

    I can make current repayments and might be an opportunity to expand at the right price.

    that said I would not like to benefit from anyone's misfortune, hearing some sad cases starting to emerge and I would only consider those places if I was approached by the seller as an act of good faith as who knows what's ahead of us all.


    Do you think that your sale will complete?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,386 ✭✭✭Gawddawggonnit


    K.G. wrote: »
    Its too early for effects to show but there is alot of unknowns.
    Farm gate prices hard to call
    Interest rates and money availability
    Will anybody in a position to hold off selling stall for a couple of years
    Lack of money and appetite in the general economy dampen interest in land purchases
    If it does get hold in the general population with a high mortality in the older generation will it result in a flood of farms coming on the market.
    Whatever your position has been up to this id be very surprised if this dosent put a hole in it-wages, lost rent right off,business disruption and asset right downs

    Once again, cash will be king.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 230 ✭✭Waternotsoda


    After 2008 crash some people who had bought horses during the boom were left holding them. They were taking up alot of acres in my village.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,266 ✭✭✭Dozer1


    contract issued so hopefully...will keep the pressure on


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 604 ✭✭✭TooOldBoots


    I wouldn't expect land prices to fall. Forestry is putting a base line on the price of all land. Government Schemes like agricultural inheritance tax relief will also artificially keep prices high. Then theirs the Bull McCabes and all those Silver haired dollars waiting and waiting for the neighbours field to come up..


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 307 ✭✭oxjkqg


    You are always going to have certain ground making certain money. The decent ground bounding a dairy man will stay up around the same money. Agricultural land that hasn't development potential will always be around the 6/7/8k an acre.
    Development land may fall in value though.
    Ive a deal done, continuing to push ahead with it.
    There is some great value to be got on interest rates at the minute.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,826 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    I wouldn't expect land prices to fall. Forestry is putting a base line on the price of all land. Government Schemes like agricultural inheritance tax relief will also artificially keep prices high. Then theirs the Bull McCabes and all those Silver haired dollars waiting and waiting for the neighbours field to come up..


    There is also business inheritance tax relief that gives the same relief as agricultural relief but without some of the restrictions

    Forestry putting a floor on prices is all well and good, but if that floor is around 3k/acre, it's not going to be much use if you buy at 15k an acre.

    I reckon that the long term leasing relief might be more relevant at stopping places being brought to market and helping to keep supply restricted. If you are buying as an investment to lease it out, you're going to be waiting a fair few years to even get your stamp duty back


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,826 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    oxjkqg wrote: »
    You are always going to have certain ground making certain money. The decent ground bounding a dairy man will stay up around the same money. Agricultural land that hasn't development potential will always be around the 6/7/8k an acre.
    Development land may fall in value though.
    Ive a deal done, continuing to push ahead with it.
    There is some great value to be got on interest rates at the minute.


    Do you mind us asking what kind of money land is making down in your area?

    You are correct in saying that interest rates are low, but the income from the land won't cover the interest if you are borrowing a significant chunk of it. (plus as I said above, you'd need to factor in stamp duty also). That's ok if you are in it for the long term. But if you are buying it with the thought of maybe selling it on again in 10 years, you're depending on capital appreciation. And people become more aware that that is not guaranteed in times like this. So those people might be less likely to pull the trigger.

    The down side of low interest rates is that the reason we often have them is due to stagnating economies. With them being so low at the minute, there is not much scope for central banks to act further. You can get into a period of very low-to-negative inflation and they don't have the same tools available that they would have in a "normal" interest rate environment. So your debt isn't going to be inflated away either. Land as an asset would be a reasonable hedge in the long term for inflation. That's no use though if you don't have any inflation


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 3,357 Mod ✭✭✭✭K.G.


    Not quite on thread but.the.gov spending away at the minute but at some point we ll have.to pay.my question is.what are they going to go after for the extra tax.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,685 ✭✭✭Cavanjack


    K.G. wrote: »
    Not quite on thread but.the.gov spending away at the minute but at some point we ll have.to pay.my question is.what are they going to go after for the extra tax.

    The working man as usual.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 307 ✭✭oxjkqg


    Do you mind us asking what kind of money land is making down in your area?

    You are correct in saying that interest rates are low, but the income from the land won't cover the interest if you are borrowing a significant chunk of it. (plus as I said above, you'd need to factor in stamp duty also). That's ok if you are in it for the long term. But if you are buying it with the thought of maybe selling it on again in 10 years, you're depending on capital appreciation. And people become more aware that that is not guaranteed in times like this. So those people might be less likely to pull the trigger.

    The down side of low interest rates is that the reason we often have them is due to stagnating economies. With them being so low at the minute, there is not much scope for central banks to act further. You can get into a period of very low-to-negative inflation and they don't have the same tools available that they would have in a "normal" interest rate environment. So your debt isn't going to be inflated away either. Land as an asset would be a reasonable hedge in the long term for inflation. That's no use though if you don't have any inflation


    Ahh you would be talking 6k an acre for middling land. Im paying 6.5k an acre. The 1 thing about good agricultural land is, unlike housing, there not making anymore good agricultural land!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,611 ✭✭✭Mooooo


    K.G. wrote: »
    Not quite on thread but.the.gov spending away at the minute but at some point we ll have.to pay.my question is.what are they going to go after for the extra tax.

    Leo and a few more countries have made a proposal that the EU finance the extra money required and then essentially write it off. Ze Germans and the Dutch don't want that tho. Prob be harder for them to refuse this time round tho


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,718 ✭✭✭✭_Brian


    K.G. wrote: »
    Not quite on thread but.the.gov spending away at the minute but at some point we ll have.to pay.my question is.what are they going to go after for the extra tax.

    Corona levi on wages, a temporary event that becomes permanent would be my guess.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,826 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    oxjkqg wrote: »
    Ahh you would be talking 6k an acre for middling land. Im paying 6.5k an acre. The 1 thing about good agricultural land is, unlike housing, there not making anymore good agricultural land!


    Yeah. I got a call from an auctioneer in relation to a block that went up a few months ago. (I had sent one of those inquiry messages on a website). I wasn't interested in it seriously, was just interested to see what level the market was at.

    Anyway, he rang me and told me they were asking in the region of 15k an acre. No yards/house or development potential and actually probably less than 50m road frontage. A decent sized block too - I reckon it would be a significant portion of the average farm size. Forestry isn't going to keep a floor on that figure.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,503 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    oxjkqg wrote: »
    Ahh you would be talking 6k an acre for middling land. Im paying 6.5k an acre. The 1 thing about good agricultural land is, unlike housing, there not making anymore good agricultural land!

    there is an abundance of farm land in the country

    there is a severe shortage of housing


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,545 ✭✭✭✭Reggie.


    Yeah. I got a call from an auctioneer in relation to a block that went up a few months ago. (I had sent one of those inquiry messages on a website). I wasn't interested in it seriously, was just interested to see what level the market was at.

    Anyway, he rang me and told me they were asking in the region of 15k an acre. No yards/house or development potential and actually probably less than 50m road frontage. A decent sized block too - I reckon it would be a significant portion of the average farm size. Forestry isn't going to keep a floor on that figure.

    Looked at an ad this morning and they were looking for something similar.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,545 ✭✭✭✭Reggie.


    Yeah. I got a call from an auctioneer in relation to a block that went up a few months ago. (I had sent one of those inquiry messages on a website). I wasn't interested in it seriously, was just interested to see what level the market was at.

    Anyway, he rang me and told me they were asking in the region of 15k an acre. No yards/house or development potential and actually probably less than 50m road frontage. A decent sized block too - I reckon it would be a significant portion of the average farm size. Forestry isn't going to keep a floor on that figure.

    Looked at an ad this morning and they were looking for something similar.

    Mad money


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,048 ✭✭✭older by the day


    I have a few thousand with aib and got a statement yesterday that the new rate is 0.010, I didn't think there was such a small rate. Makes 15000 an acre a good investment. At least you could walk around and watch the grass growing


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,826 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    I have a few thousand with aib and got a statement yesterday that the new rate is 0.010, I didn't think there was such a small rate. Makes 15000 an acre a good investment. At least you could walk around and watch the grass growing


    Sure by that logic 150k an acre would be a good investment.......



    (0.010 might be a small number, but negative returns are smaller..........plus don't forget the 7.5% stamp duty to Paschal before you open the gate)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,471 ✭✭✭Panch18


    Mad_maxx wrote: »
    there is an abundance of farm land in the country

    there is a severe shortage of housing

    I would disagree strongly with your statement

    There may be plenty of land in the county but there is very little of it sold, which is the main driver of the high prices

    Also the “severe shortage of housing” is 1 of the greatest lies ever told by the Irish media, an absolute sham. They should be locked up for their near incessant ranting about a none existing housing crisis. But the people fell for it


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,545 ✭✭✭✭Reggie.


    I have a few thousand with aib and got a statement yesterday that the new rate is 0.010, I didn't think there was such a small rate. Makes 15000 an acre a good investment. At least you could walk around and watch the grass growing

    Jaysus that is low. Is that just for the minute or over the loan period


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,545 ✭✭✭✭Reggie.


    Panch18 wrote: »
    I would disagree strongly with your statement

    There may be plenty of land in the county but there is very little of it sold, which is the main driver of the high prices

    Also the “severe shortage of housing” is 1 of the greatest lies ever told by the Irish media, an absolute sham. They should be locked up for their near incessant ranting about a none existing housing crisis. But the people fell for it

    My neighbour is a builder for Andrew's and he told me the other day they have 100s of houses between mullingar and ashbourne that aren't selling


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,545 ✭✭✭✭Reggie.


    Sure by that logic 150k an acre would be a good investment.......



    (0.010 might be a small number, but negative returns are smaller..........plus don't forget the 7.5% stamp duty to Paschal before you open the gate)

    Plus your solicitor fees also so another 5k ish


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,826 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Reggie. wrote: »
    Jaysus that is low. Is that just for the minute or over the loan period


    I think he means what he's getting for having his money sitting on deposit......... It's a different story when you go asking them for theirs


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,545 ✭✭✭✭Reggie.


    I think he means what he's getting for having his money sitting on deposit......... It's a different story when you go asking them for theirs

    Was thinking that. Jaysus


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,826 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Reggie. wrote: »
    Plus your solicitor fees also so another 5k ish


    Then the auctioneers fees if you want to convert back to cash at the end of the "investment"


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,344 ✭✭✭Grueller


    With all of the negativity about buying land on here it is a wonder that land is not given away for free.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,123 ✭✭✭✭patsy_mccabe


    The world economy has more or less stopped. When the corona virus is sorted, when ever that is, the economy will start up again. It doesn't necessary mean a world recession.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 853 ✭✭✭duffysfarm


    Good point - but unless the germans and france are badly hit by the virus i can see them giving the 2 fingers to all other countries like they did last time
    Mooooo wrote: »
    Leo and a few more countries have made a proposal that the EU finance the extra money required and then essentially write it off. Ze Germans and the Dutch don't want that tho. Prob be harder for them to refuse this time round tho


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,545 ✭✭✭✭Reggie.


    duffysfarm wrote: »
    Good point - but unless the germans and france are badly hit by the virus i can see them giving the 2 fingers to all other countries like they did last time

    Will the other countries roll over for them a second time tho


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,826 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Grueller wrote: »
    With all of the negativity about buying land on here it is a wonder that land is not given away for free.

    People are interested in buying it. There has to be some good in it though for the buyer.

    The bit that I was interested to buy about a year ago was offered for rent last year at 1.25% of the price I offered for it. (The land would be good, but the place would need a lot of tidying up. The first thing you'd need to is tidy up the "hedges", clean out the ditches/drains and reseed the whole lot, but it would be decent land )

    Fair enough you might get your 1.25% into your pocket if you buy it and rent it under the long-term leasing but if that was your plan, there is no guarantee that that scheme would continue.

    Just because someone might think that 15k an acre is too much, doesn't mean that they think it should be given away for free. There are no fundamentals keeping a price at say 15k. It might as well be 30k or 50k because that price is predicated on the expectation that someone else would buy it from you later at an equally inflated (relative to earning/production capacity) price. The bit that I made an offer on was not near 15k but the other bit I inquired about recently was quoted as that.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 556 ✭✭✭1373


    I’ve yet to see anything on this planet to lower land prices in the last 30 years and I doubt this virus will . There’s plenty of people with money waiting to spend, plenty of farmers with Ltd companies that have good cash on hand happy to spend


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,826 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    1373 wrote: »
    I’ve yet to see anything on this planet to lower land prices in the last 30 years and I doubt this virus will . There’s plenty of people with money waiting to spend, plenty of farmers with Ltd companies that have good cash on hand happy to spend


    Plenty of land near me, no development potential, although often bid up by those who had sold land for development, went for north of 40k - 50k an acre in the mid-late 2000's.

    Not much shifted after the crash and the lowest I saw it go over the last 10 years was about 8.5k an acre - but that was a local man and it was being sold on him (he didn't want to sell it) and nobody local would bid on it. Based on the shallow market at the time, the average price would have been in or around 10k an acre. The last few years was hovering between say 11-12.5k an acre depending on the bit of land. But still far below the mad money of 12+ years ago.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 853 ✭✭✭duffysfarm


    They may not have a choice. The other countries can huff and puff all they want but its still up to germany and france.
    Look at lagarde at the ecb and her comments on italy at the beginning of the outbreak - disgraceful. She basically said italys problem was their own problem and nothing to dk with the ecb. She is just a puppet and how she as a solicitor got her current role is crazy. David mc Williams talks a lot of ****e most times but has some good observations on her on his podcasts
    Reggie. wrote: »
    Will the other countries roll over for them a second time tho


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,826 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    To add to the point above, although this is development or strong development potential land, here is an ad for a place near Ashbourne in Co. Meath.

    241 acres for around 9m https://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/large-farmland-guided-at-9m-offers-potential-for-residential-development-39037302.html

    I don't know if it's the same place (it is very very likely it is - especially considering the description) , but 228 acres in the same townland went on the market in 2007 with a price tag of 60m
    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/ashbourne-landbank-of-228-acres-for-over-60-million-1.1202354


    Anyone who thinks that prices can never come down, or then even if they do it will only be temporary, could end up with an awful shock.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,826 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    duffysfarm wrote: »
    They may not have a choice. The other countries can huff and puff all they want but its still up to germany and france.
    Look at lagarde at the ecb and her comments on italy at the beginning of the outbreak - disgraceful. She basically said italys problem was their own problem and nothing to dk with the ecb. She is just a puppet and how she as a solicitor got her current role is crazy. David mc Williams talks a lot of ****e most times but has some good observations on her on his podcasts


    The ECB is for monetary policy. It should not be influenced directly by political decisions.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 853 ✭✭✭duffysfarm


    True but europe aka germany & co rode us black and blue the time of the bail out and will look after their best interests and no one elses this time round again.

    quote="Donald Trump;112994439"]The ECB is for monetary policy. It should not be influenced directly by political decisions.[/quote]


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 556 ✭✭✭1373


    Plenty of land near me, no development potential, although often bid up by those who had sold land for development, went for north of 40k - 50k an acre in the mid-late 2000's.

    Not much shifted after the crash and the lowest I saw it go over the last 10 years was about 8.5k an acre - but that was a local man and it was being sold on him (he didn't want to sell it) and nobody local would bid on it. Based on the shallow market at the time, the average price would have been in or around 10k an acre. The last few years was hovering between say 11-12.5k an acre depending on the bit of land. But still far below the mad money of 12+ years ago.
    If I understand your post correctly, you’re saying that there was plenty of agricultural farm land sold in your area for 40 to 50,000 euro per acre


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,826 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    1373 wrote: »
    If I understand your post correctly, you’re saying that there was plenty of agricultural farm land sold in your area for 40 to 50,000 euro per acre


    Yes. As unbelievable as it may sound these days, yes there was.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 556 ✭✭✭1373


    Yes. As unbelievable as it may sound these days, yes there was.

    Coolmore wouldn’t have stood a chance in your area , probably why they had to settle for the heart of the golden vale


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,826 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    1373 wrote: »
    Coolmore wouldn’t have stood a chance in your area , probably why they had to settle for the heart of the golden vale


    No need to be smart about it. If ya don't believe me I'll try to search a few of the auction results and PM them to you if you agree not to disclose publicly the location. Because this in an anonymous message board. So I'm not putting my location out publicly.

    I just googled one of them now. 45 acres total in a High Amenity zoned area (i.e. no future development potential ever). That's not in the description but I can send you a google maps link of the location and you can cross reference that with the council development plan. Sold in a few lots because it was actually fragmented a bit. Came to just under 2m total.

    And just googled another one from the same year which was a bit of a bargain. 60 acres for just under 3 million.........but it did come with a 3 bed house. Zoned Rural. Not right on the edge of a village/town or anything like that.

    But if you do want me to PM those auction reports, I'll just ask that you come back on here and verify that they are real, without disclosing the links/locations.

    There are other ones I know about too. But I can't find auction reports for those just now. I can send you those two if ya wanna be proven wrong.


    I think that people forget just how mental things went back then! It is when we forget things that we allow the same mistakes to happen again.


    And see my link above about the farm at the edge of Asbourne in Co. Meath. Now guiding 9m. Was guiding for 60m 12 years ago. Not sure if if sold then. I am not familiar with the area. I just saw it for sale recently and googled the name and saw the old report. It's not in my area.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,998 ✭✭✭farawaygrass


    A sizeable farm went 60k an acre not far from me. Sold again a couple of years ago for 10k an acre. Fine block of land


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,826 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    A sizeable farm went 60k an acre not far from me. Sold again a couple of years ago for 10k an acre. Fine block of land


    When I was googling unsuccessfully for an auction report for another place that I know made mad money just before the crash, I instead found an article from the late 90's about a neighbouring block that had been sold for the equivalent of 16.3k Euro per acre (I had to convert from punts @1.27).

    The accompanying article actually stated explicitly that it was described by experts as having zero development potential. It was just a bit under 40 acres.
    There was also a bit of a bubble around that time that subsequently burst for a few years and then re-inflated in the early-mid 2000's

    How do people forget these things?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,503 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    1373 wrote: »
    I’ve yet to see anything on this planet to lower land prices in the last 30 years and I doubt this virus will . There’s plenty of people with money waiting to spend, plenty of farmers with Ltd companies that have good cash on hand happy to spend

    major CAP reform will drag down land prices


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,428 ✭✭✭epfff


    Mad_maxx wrote: »
    major CAP reform will drag down land prices

    Major cap reform has to come the money just aint there.
    The question is who will take the hit?
    The small guy?
    The big acres guy?
    The big payment guy?
    The off farm income guy?
    All of the above maybe.
    no one will be happy me think


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