Cold hard reality of Irish health care capability - must watch

bo0li5eumx12kp

https://twitter.com/RTE_PrimeTime/status/1240767106955821059

Nice jolt into reality.

Forget the happy-go-lucky Irish pretense of being sociable and care free.

If Ireland experiences the same infection rates as Italy, death rates will be exponentially higher (which currently stand at 3000+ in Italy) as the resources are simply not there (as mentioned, less that 50% of Italian capability) to cope with requirements.

Supposedly communist measures of China are paying dividends (despite how brutal they have been - apartment building doors being welded shut etc), in terms of curbing infection rates.

Counterintuitive in one sense as when crisis hits, you tend to go into "action" mode.
The irony here being "action" mode is inactivity.
Reclusion, isolation, separation.

Agricola

Saw that interview last night on TV. Would put a chill down your spine.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

Everybody in the country needs to see this and hear this! (If they haven't already)

I know it makes for horrible viewing, but shock and awe tactics might be necessary if we're going to get the message through to the last few % of people who are not quite listening...

There are poor countries in Africa etc, that have even less capacity to deal with this than us... literally their only hope, is to do anything and everything to stop it spreading. But clearly that's our only hope too!

bo0li5eumx12kp

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

Everybody in the country needs to see this and hear this! (If they haven't already)

I know it makes for horrible viewing, but shock and awe tactics might be necessary if we're going to get the message through to the last few % of people who are not quite listening...

There are poor countries in Africa etc, that have even less capacity to deal with this than us... literally their only hope, is to do anything and everything to stop it spreading. But clearly that's our only hope too!

Refugee camps are also terribly vulnerable.

What surprises me slightly are the stats of the "Diamond Princess Cruise Ship" where every sumbitch was infected, but out of 700 passengers only 7 deaths.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

7 deaths too many but a 1% fatality rate, it's certainly more encouraging than 10% plus stats coming out of Italy.

Apparently Elon Musk has refigured his electric car and space vehicle manufacturing plants to produce masks and ventilators.
Whether it can be done with a time frame to make an impact....

"E95" masks seem to be the order of the day but with absolutely no stock availability.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Italian death rate (45% of closed cases) is high because of the hospitals are overwhelmed and the minor cases aren't being counted.

beolight

The Doctor was visibly shaking

She has seen the figures...... She knows the Irish hospitals don’t have the equipment or the staff to cope
She has probably fighting all her career with the the HSE/ Dept of Health ..... She has also probably been warned by HSE not to say anything to media

She had probably also seen the lackadaisical attitude of some of the population

Icepick

Morgan Muscular Wrestler wrote: »

7 deaths too many but a 1% fatality rate, it's certainly more encouraging than 10% plus stats coming out of Italy.

177 sick, 14 critical



Even 1% death rate with 100% tested is a brutal death rate.
Seasonal flu is about 0.1% and you need to adjust that for people whose health is so fragile, they wouldn't go on a cruise.

Blanco100

Icepick wrote: »

177 sick, 14 critical



Even 1% death rate with 100% tested is a brutal death rate.
Seasonal flu is about 0.1%.

Where did you get the figure of 14 critical?

bo0li5eumx12kp

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Italian death rate (45% of closed cases) is high because of the hospitals are overwhelmed and the minor cases aren't being counted.

Her experience thus far is 1 in 5 death rate.

If Italy's closed cases were near 50% death rate with overwhelmed hospitals - a quick crunch of the numbers via Ireland having less than half the ICU capacity of Italian hospitals, could translate as death rates of 75% + for infected cases.
Well - that's according to your outlay, insufficient capacity hypothesis; current active cases vs critical cases is certainly lower, about 7% - but fact remains that their recovery rates currently about = their death rates.

i.e. extrapolating slightly, if it takes off in Ireland (which its predicted to do, this is calm before the storm period), and isn't kept under control via the only means we know how currently (social distancing), survival chances are 1 in 4, and given age + condition history (smoking, inflammatory conditions etc), that person goes on a ventilator, they're probably not coming off.

I read on twitter there's still groups of teenagers loitering streets etc.

I guess it's hard to go against the flow of a culture and a mindset especially certain backgrounds living densely populated under one roof, got to get out and about etc but...... pffff - darwinism is about to hit these groups (and their relatives) hard and fast.

bo0li5eumx12kp

Blanco100 wrote: »

Where did you get the figure of 14 critical?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Blanco100

Morgan Muscular Wrestler wrote: »

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

says there are 6 critical

bo0li5eumx12kp

Blanco100 wrote: »

says there are 6 critical

The other post was referring to the Diamond Princess cruise ship where everyone was infected, subsequent 1% death rate; currently 14 critical.

bo0li5eumx12kp

https://twitter.com/i/status/1241044699193978880

A little more of this for those darwin destined groups loitering streets and estates in Ireland, clearly intent of defying authority.

Social distancing needs to start being taken more seriously.

JP Liz V1

We need to flatten the curve

Pseudonym121

Morgan Muscular Wrestler wrote: »

Her experience thus far is 1 in 5 death rate.

If Italy's closed cases were near 50% death rate with overwhelmed hospitals - a quick crunch of the numbers via Ireland having less than half the ICU capacity of Italian hospitals, could translate as death rates of 75% + for infected cases.
Well - that's according to your outlay, insufficient capacity hypothesis; current active cases vs critical cases is certainly lower, about 7% - but fact remains that their recovery rates currently about = their death rates.

i.e. extrapolating slightly, if it takes off in Ireland (which its predicted to do, this is calm before the storm period), and isn't kept under control via the only means we know how currently (social distancing), survival chances are 1 in 4, and given age + condition history (smoking, inflammatory conditions etc), that person goes on a ventilator, they're probably not coming off.

I read on twitter there's still groups of teenagers loitering streets etc.

I guess it's hard to go against the flow of a culture and a mindset especially certain backgrounds living densely populated under one roof, got to get out and about etc but...... pffff - darwinism is about to hit these groups (and their relatives) hard and fast.

You can’t use closed cases vs deaths to get accurate long-term mortality rates. That’s not how the maths of this works.

At worst, with almost no treatment or other measures Ireland would max out at a roughly 10% death rate, not 25%. Obviously 10% is horrendous but your assumptions are incorrect and render a flawed conclusion.

Atlantic Dawn

How can a meeting of an evening decide a €64billion bailout for the crookedly managed banks and we can't now have legislation in place to seize factories to make them produce ventilators which if we don't will result in thousands of deaths?

Turtwig

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

How can a meeting of an evening decide a €64billion bailout for the crookedly managed banks and we can't now have legislation in place to seize factories to make them produce ventilators which if we don't will result in thousands of deaths?

Because we're going to need stuff from other countries too. If we halt ventilator exports then the countries we screw over will not be as likely to assist us.

Atlantic Dawn

Turtwig wrote: »

Because we're going to need stuff from other countries too. If we halt ventilator exports then the countries we screw over will not be as likely to assist us.

I was more talking about making additionals rather than seizing.

jimmycrackcorm

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

I was more talking about making additionals rather than seizing.

I guess we could get shoe factories to make them, given the similarities.

beolight

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8138581/Coronavirus-frontline-NHS-doctor-reveals-patients-dying-agony-just-start.html?fbclid=IwAR0UG35AsQJZ25pGVrOziayRvQYKUuilE56xS1zMB85jviituMJSV58wzmA

Posted on the main thread

Happening now in UK this might explain the raw fear / trembling of the Irish Doctor

Kerry25x

beolight wrote: »

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8138581/Coronavirus-frontline-NHS-doctor-reveals-patients-dying-agony-just-start.html?fbclid=IwAR0UG35AsQJZ25pGVrOziayRvQYKUuilE56xS1zMB85jviituMJSV58wzmA

Posted on the main thread

Happening now in UK this might explain the raw fear / trembling of the Irish Doctor

Reads a bit like fiction to be honest, he was called to a respiratory arrest and attempts to resuscitate were unsuccessful. So the patient was already dead before he arrived and they were doing chest compressions.....yet he saw the patient gasping for breaths with terror in his eyes.

Same with the next paragraph, he was called to assess a patient with a high fever. When he arrived and saw the patient burning up it was immediately clear to him that the patient had Covid19 and they had all been exposed to it... It's not that easy to diagnose the virus, symptoms are too vague and varied, they didn't even mention any other symptoms. Patients in hospital spike temperatures all the time for loads of different reasons. Happens multiple times a day on most wards.

Not undermining the seriousness of the situation over there but that article is rediculous.

RiseAbove4

Morgan Muscular Wrestler wrote: »

Her experience thus far is 1 in 5 death rate.

Her experience is saying 20% of Irish people getting it will die?

RiseAbove4

Sorry, I just saw the video in full. She says 1 in 5 ICU patients will die

YFlyer

Turtwig wrote: »

Because we're going to need stuff from other countries too. If we halt ventilator exports then the countries we screw over will not be as likely to assist us.

Make the parts here in Ireland. We have the machine workshops and factories.

Kerry25x

YFlyer wrote: »

Make the parts here in Ireland. We have the machine workshops and factories.

We're already one of the biggest manufacturers of ventilators in the world. 50% of ventilators used in acute hospitals worldwide are made in Ireland. And we already have ramped up production, one plant in Galway are doubling their workforce to try and meet demand.

CrabRevolution

YFlyer wrote: »

Make the parts here in Ireland. We have the machine workshops and factories.

You clearly have no idea how this works. Every machine consists of thousands of components made in different sites. Coronavirus will be a distant memory by the time we reverse engineer every single part, and setup a large scale manufacturing facility for every single one.

bcklschaps

Kerry25x wrote: »

We're already one of the biggest manufacturers of ventilators in the world. 50% of ventilators used in acute hospitals worldwide are made in Ireland. And we already have ramped up production, one plant in Galway are doubling their workforce to try and meet demand.

You are getting carried away there auld stock, the figure is more like 5% of worldwide production. We don't even produce 50% of Medtronic's ventilators..... and there are numerous other ventilator manufactuers worldwide.

Wibbs

Kerry25x wrote: »

Not undermining the seriousness of the situation over there but that article is rediculous.

+1000 K. That was my take on reading it. The bit about morphine and midazolam not having any effect and people's deaths were "excruciating" is fear mongering in a big bloody way. And a load of bollocks. If you're intubated on that cocktail or similar you're out for the count. It's why it's used in end of life pallative care.

None of it sounds like the words of a doctor at all. A clickbait "journalism" course wanker hack creating fear porn for daily mail reading fcukwits yes, a doctor no.

Kerry25x

bcklschaps wrote: »

You are getting carried away there auld stock, the figure is more like 5% of worldwide production. We don't even produce 50% of Medtronic's ventilators..... and there are numerous other ventilator manufactuers worldwide.

Really? I could be wrong but I got the figure from IDA Ireland.

https://www.idaireland.com/doing-business-here/industry-sectors/medical-technology

bcklschaps

Kerry25x wrote: »

Really? I could be wrong but I got the figure from IDA Ireland.

https://www.idaireland.com/doing-business-here/industry-sectors/medical-technology

I think the IDA have taken some very specific sub category of ventilator, for example neo-natal and have then used this as a more general top line figure for their blurb. It would be very interesting to see where they have extrapolated that figure from. Its definitely misleading.


Or maybe its the old "double Irish" tax shenanigans. Sure if you want, you could say 50% of all the worlds software is made in Ireland then too :-)

When I worked in that area I think Siemens were the largest manufacturer of hospital ventilators (they don't even manufacture in Ireland).

* I worked for what is now Medtronic in Galway manufacturing ventilators.

YFlyer

CrabRevolution wrote: »

You clearly have no idea how this works. Every machine consists of thousands of components made in different sites. Coronavirus will be a distant memory by the time we reverse engineer every single part, and setup a large scale manufacturing facility for every single one.

I'll admit I am wrong. Read that companies that have licence to make medical components could make other medical components.