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Italy - almost 500 deaths reported 18th March

  • 18-03-2020 6:45pm
    #1
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,355 ✭✭✭ bo0li5eumx12kp


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/18/coronavirus-live-news-updates-outbreak-us-states-uk-australia-europe-eu-self-isolation-lockdown-latest-update

    Today alone.

    Almost 3000 deaths from 31000 infections.

    Roughly translating as a 1 in 10 death toll.

    Apparently China knew what they were doing via aggressive tactics; the UK on the other hand, and whatever other dick-brains are implementing the "herd immunity" strategy will be effectively implementing genocide.

    Some argue northern Italy has a higher elderly populace, thus explaining high numbers of mortalities, which I don't buy for a moment.

    Looking back on the major pandemics, certainly of the last couple centuries;

    - Spanish flu
    - HIV
    - Swine flu

    Given the earth's population has increased from about 2 billion in the early 1900's to about 8 billion in modern times;

    - Spanish flu killed about 100 million - 10% of the global population
    - HIV about 35 million - 0.03% of global population.
    - Swine flu 500,000 (high estimate), 0.7% of global population

    Pfffff.

    Swine flu was 2009.
    Is it peculiar I remember that one coming and going quite quickly?
    Without too much fuss?
    Obviously if it infected about 1.5 billion and caused about 500 million peoples souls to leave their bodies it wasn't exactly, "not too much fuss", but I just can't recall the same "pandemic" nature surrounding it.... :confused: (EDIT: misread stat - number was much lower, about equivalent to typical seasonal flu)

    Point being, say the 1 in 10 stat of coronavirus does become global (which without restrictions being implemented, it's clearly shown the potential to do), we're looking about an 800 million death toll.

    Doesn't seem as insidious as the Spanish flu but death numbers show the potential to be equivalent.


Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 153 ✭✭ ismat


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/18/coronavirus-live-news-updates-outbreak-us-states-uk-australia-europe-eu-self-isolation-lockdown-latest-update

    Today alone.

    Almost 3000 deaths from 31000 infections.

    Roughly translating as a 1 in 10 death toll.

    Apparently China knew what they were doing via aggressive tactics; the UK on the other hand, and whatever other dick-brains are implementing the "herd immunity" strategy will be effectively implementing genocide.

    Some argue northern Italy has a higher elderly populace, thus explaining high numbers of mortalities, which I don't buy for a moment.

    Looking back on the major pandemics, certainly of the last couple centuries;

    - Spanish flu
    - HIV
    - Swine flu

    Given the earth's population has increased from about 2 billion in the early 1900's to about 8 billion in modern times;

    - Spanish flu killed about 100 million - 10% of the global population
    - HIV about 35 million - 0.03% of global population.
    - Swine flu 500 million (high estimate), 7% of global population

    Pfffff.

    Swine flu was 2009.
    Is it peculiar I remember that one coming and going quite quickly?
    Without too much fuss?
    Obviously if it infected about 1.5 billion and caused about 500 million peoples souls to leave their bodies it wasn't exactly, "not too much fuss", but I just can't recall the same "pandemic" nature surrounding it.... :confused:

    Point being, say the 1 in 10 stat of coronavirus does become global (which without restrictions being implemented, it's clearly shown the potential to do), we're looking about an 800 million death toll.

    Doesn't seem as insidious as the Spanish flu but death numbers show the potential to be equivalent.
    It was 500,000 approx they died


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,355 ✭✭✭ bo0li5eumx12kp


    ismat wrote: »
    It was 500,000 approx they died

    Thanks, misread the stat.

    In that case, unchecked Corona could be the Spanish flu equivalent.

    It seems infection rates can and are being determined via behavioral patterns.

    Obviously Spanish flu was exacerbated as it was essentially globally mobilized via WW1.

    Thus, restrictions and social behavior seem to exhibit the potential to determine contraction and death rates.

    Which begs the question - Northern Italy is on lockdown, right?
    Where are they going so wrong if their infection and death stats are so damn high?


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,366 ✭✭✭ jacdaniel2014


    I don’t have time right now to fully analyse their figures but they had an increase today of about 13%. Id be interested to see how the growth rate is looking from day to day. They do seem to be slowing down a bit but obviously still large daily numbers.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,546 ✭✭✭ Blaaz_


    I don’t have time right now to fully analyse their figures but they had an increase today of about 13%. Id be interested to see how the growth rate is looking from day to day. They do seem to be slowing down a bit but obviously still large daily numbers.

    They are on day 10.....surely over next few days the rate of infections should tank??

    And by early to mid april deaths should be nearing normal.figures again (going by 18 day figure)??


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,355 ✭✭✭ bo0li5eumx12kp


    Is there anything to be said for saying another mass?

    Forget that bullshinanigans homie.

    There's only one prayer you need to say right now - "Social Distancing".


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  • Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,096 Mod ✭✭✭✭ cherryghost


    I don’t have time right now to fully analyse their figures but they had an increase today of about 13%. Id be interested to see how the growth rate is looking from day to day. They do seem to be slowing down a bit but obviously still large daily numbers.

    It has been 13% the past 3 days. The 30% daily rises have disappeared. I would imagine they are plateauing now. I would hope in a few weeks the situation may be similar to China .


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,370 ✭✭✭ Cina


    Lombardy, the initially hardest hit region and the one with the most stringent lockdown measures, has largely stabilised in terms of cases/deaths. I believe it's the other regions now that are causing them to continue to rise.

    Italy is essentially a sign of things to come for pretty much every other European country. It's a tragedy what has happened there and I hope other countries learn from the mistakes made and what they've done since to rectify them. Sadly, many don't seem to be.


  • Registered Users Posts: 736 ✭✭✭ Das Reich


    Some argue northern Italy has a higher elderly populace, thus explaining high numbers of mortalities, which I don't buy for a moment.

    Some argue? Have you been there? Its a nursing home. When my sister was at school in the late 90's there was only one native of Northern Italy out of 15 children. And it was in a medium sized town. They are paying the price for having only old people and it is not sustainable.


  • Registered Users Posts: 645 ✭✭✭ Fred Cryton


    The common flu kills around 650,000 per year annually across the globe.

    I wonder will COVID-19 actually kill fewer people, because people are acting and isolating against it, unlike the flu.


  • Registered Users Posts: 605 ✭✭✭ meath4sam


    The common flu kills around 650,000 per year annually across the globe.

    I wonder will COVID-19 actually kill fewer people, because people are acting and isolating against it, unlike the flu.

    Hopefully


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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 49,023 CMod ✭✭✭✭ awec


    I was reading something earlier on bloomberg or something that 99% of Italy's deaths had an underlying condition, with almost 50% of them having three underlying conditions, with the average age of those who died being ~80.

    Of everyone under 50 who died, they were all male and they all had serious underlying conditions. Only 3 people with no underlying conditions had died. I think the data was up to and including yesterday, so doesn't include today's numbers.

    If this is all true, I am not sure I would dismiss Italy's old population (second oldest on earth I think) as being a factor, as well as societal things (isn't it common there for multiple generations to live in the same house?). I guess the real question is how big of a factor it really is.

    Of course, you also have to account for the potential that the number of infected is actually a lot higher than the official figures, which would also distort the death rate upward?


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,514 ✭✭✭ paleoperson


    awec wrote: »
    I was reading something earlier on bloomberg or something that 99% of Italy's deaths had an underlying condition, with almost 50% of them having three underlying conditions, with the average age of those who died being ~80.

    Of everyone under 50 who died, they were all male and they all had serious underlying conditions. Only 3 people with no underlying conditions had died. I think the data was up to and including yesterday, so doesn't include today's numbers.

    If this is all true, I am not sure I would dismiss Italy's old population (second oldest on earth I think) as being a factor, as well as societal things (isn't it common there for multiple generations to live in the same house?). I guess the real question is how big of a factor it really is.

    Of course, you also have to account for the potential that the number of infected is actually a lot higher than the official figures, which would also distort the death rate upward?

    I'm not sure it is all true, seems like they're spinning facts. What person over 70 doesn't have an underlying condition? A few doctors in China and Italy have died without any underlying conditions, ranging from as young as their 30s up.

    Even if only people over 80 could get the condition, it's not like Italy has 10 times the amount of over 80s as other countries, it's just a fraction greater, while this virus is exponentially greater in Italy than other countries. Another thing is they letting old people die while treating younger people in many cases.

    If you think about that network, it could well be watching the stock market fall and trying to influence people.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,355 ✭✭✭ bo0li5eumx12kp


    awec wrote: »
    I was reading something earlier on bloomberg or something that 99% of Italy's deaths had an underlying condition, with almost 50% of them having three underlying conditions, with the average age of those who died being ~80.

    Of everyone under 50 who died, they were all male and they all had serious underlying conditions. Only 3 people with no underlying conditions had died. I think the data was up to and including yesterday, so doesn't include today's numbers.

    If this is all true, I am not sure I would dismiss Italy's old population (second oldest on earth I think) as being a factor, as well as societal things (isn't it common there for multiple generations to live in the same house?). I guess the real question is how big of a factor it really is.

    Of course, you also have to account for the potential that the number of infected is actually a lot higher than the official figures, which would also distort the death rate upward?

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

    You seem to allude to genuine stats, however I'd be hesitant to attribute mortality exclusively to those factors regardless.

    Those from all demographics are being seen in ICU including the use of invasive ventilators, but in contrast to stats in the Netherlands by example,

    https://www.ed.nl/brabant/15-nieuwe-patienten-overleden-aan-corona-in-totaal-759-gevallen-in-brabant~a298604c/?referrer=https://www.google.com/

    Yes it appears actual mortality is mostly confined to over 60's

    "In total, 58 people in the Netherlands have now died of the disease. The dead are between 63 and 95 years old. Since Tuesday, 346 'new' people have been tested positive nationally for COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus. This brings the total number of people tested positive to 2051. A total of 408 patients have been (or have been) hospitalized, the RIVM reports."


  • Registered Users Posts: 25,410 ✭✭✭✭ GreeBo


    It has been 13% the past 3 days. The 30% daily rises have disappeared. I would imagine they are plateauing now. I would hope in a few weeks the situation may be similar to China .

    Problem with that though is that as soon as you stop social distancing the numbers will rise again until the herd immunity takes over.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,171 ✭✭✭ Hoboo


    GreeBo wrote: »
    Problem with that though is that as soon as you stop social distancing the numbers will rise again until the herd immunity takes over.

    Or a vaccine is made. If it takes herd immunity to kill this off, the earth will be a mass grave.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-germany-millions/german-institute-two-years-for-pandemic-to-run-its-course-idUSKBN2141GT


  • Registered Users Posts: 25,410 ✭✭✭✭ GreeBo


    Hoboo wrote: »
    Or a vaccine is made. If it takes herd immunity to kill this off, the earth will be a mass grave.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-germany-millions/german-institute-two-years-for-pandemic-to-run-its-course-idUSKBN2141GT

    Unfortunately I think we have seen that vaccines and common sense are not on the best of terms. :(

    I'm fully expecting a second outbreak, I'm just hoping that its the same strain and not a mutation. A mutated version emerging next near would be terrifying.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,546 ✭✭✭ Blaaz_


    Daily increases down to 1 and 2% in worst areas....the virus is finally grounding to a halt


    Their not out of woods,but at last a chink of light at end of tunnel for them


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,400 ✭✭✭✭ thebaz


    Blaaz_ wrote: »
    Increases down to 1 and 2% in worst areas....the virus is finally grounding to a halt


    Their not out of woods,but at last a chink of light at end of tunnel for them

    The rate of increase has thankfully , hopefully peaked, and has been reducing past few days - What hit them hard was when North Italy started to recover, then South Italy started to surge - Wish the very best to a great nation.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,411 ✭✭✭ Yurt2


    thebaz wrote: »
    The rate of increase has thankfully , hopefully peaked, and has been reducing past few days - What hit them hard was when North Italy started to recover, then South Italy started to surge - Wish the very best to a great nation.

    Indeed. The Italians are a good humoured sort. I have very fond memories of visiting there enjoying their ancient cultural heritage, their excellent food and trying to talk to their beautiful women in my awful Italian.

    It will be a long road, but our Italian friends will be back with brighter days ahead of them.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,546 ✭✭✭ Blaaz_


    Its slowing down out there

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.rte.ie/amp/1128597/

    (Who ever would think 500 a day dying is a sign of good news)


    Less people dying,than in the uk,critical care numbers are dropping off,while recovered numbers are rising


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,600 ✭✭✭ BanditLuke


    Blaaz_ wrote: »
    Its slowing down out there

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.rte.ie/amp/1128597/

    (Who ever would think 500 a day dying is a sign of good news)


    Less people dying,than in the uk,critical care numbers are dropping off,while recovered numbers are rising

    Good news relatively speaking.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,546 ✭✭✭ Blaaz_


    1st day below 100 deaths since early march,over 32K deaths in total


  • Registered Users Posts: 645 ✭✭✭ eddie73


    Yesterday there were 56,000 active cases with 50 deaths that day.
    The last time there were 56,000 active cases was March 25th. 650 deaths that day.

    There is a 13 fold anomaly of a death rate here.

    Yet the weight of numbers on the hospitals were identical.

    Why is this?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,140 ✭✭✭ What Username Guidelines


    Lombardia reported 0 deaths, there is a query over whether this is correct or an issue with reporting. They did have a day 99 deaths last week I believe so their rate is reducing.

    While they have 56,000 active cases now, lots of these are mild and recovering at home. When the curve was on the way up, the 56,000 represented a much bigger % of hospitalised, as they were so overrun they werent doing as much community testing, or were only testing those with severe symptoms.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 11,991 Mod ✭✭✭✭ riffmongous


    You can't compare really, the 56k back then probably was a lot of cases that were known because the people were sick enough to present themselves as sick at a hospital, whereas now with much more testing and contact tracing you are including a much higher number of only mildly sick people in the active cases. Back at the end of March in Italy the true number of active cases was probably much higher.

    Then there was also the problem of too much load on the health system at the time compared to now when they've had time to adjust and cope.

    Also maybe weekend reporting plays a role, most countries report far less deaths on a Sunday (UK usually 3 times more on a Monday than Sunday)


  • Registered Users Posts: 645 ✭✭✭ eddie73


    Thank you guys, that is a bit clearer.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,140 ✭✭✭ What Username Guidelines


    Looks like it wasnt an error yesterday, zero deaths in Lombardia. 34 today, and only 148 new cases (yesterday 285, day before 441). Given it's a population of 11 million that was hit hard, those figures are impressively small.

    https://milano.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/20_maggio_25/coronavirus-lombardia-dati-contagi-regione-aggiornamenti-ricoveri-decessi-terapie-intensive-d5796f84-9e7d-11ea-aa6b-a30e3049a61e.shtml?&appunica=true


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,546 ✭✭✭ Blaaz_




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