When will the sale of petrol be banned?

moonage

From 2030 no new petrol/diesel cars will be sold.

When will the sale of petrol itself be banned? Presumably not until at least 10 to 15 years later. Is there a definite date?

Or will it not be banned at all? Maybe they'll just make it extremely expensive.

Toyotafanboi

I'd say it'll never be banned outright. It'll probably just get cheaper and harder to get as time goes by and less people want it.

PaulRyan97

Combustion engined cars won't be illegal on Irish roads (save for rare exceptions) until 2045 when they stop issuing NCT certs for them. Petrol won't be banned, will just become rare to find save for certain niches.

LRNM

Toyotafanboi wrote: »

I'd say it'll never be banned outright. It'll probably just get cheaper and harder to get as time goes by and less people want it.

Cheaper? Yes please!

Eric Cartman

PaulRyan97 wrote: »

Combustion engined cars won't be illegal on Irish roads (save for rare exceptions) until 2045 when they stop issuing NCT certs for them. Petrol won't be banned, will just become rare to find save for certain niches.

wonder is that a stop issue in 2045 or expired by 2045, would love to show up 30th december 2044 and get a years NCT on a filthy V12, drive it round after till the guards stop me and sieze the last great car off the roads.

btkm8unsl0w5r4

In 2045...2015 cars will be classics...imaging having a 458 and not being able to get petrol...the horror...

Jurgen Klopp

Just one thing, is the 2030 ban not referring to petrol and diesel only?

I thought hybrids would be allowed so wouldn't petrol and diesel still be needed?

endacl

I’d say they’re planning on hybrids being a ‘gateway drug’ to full electric.

Neilw

PaulRyan97 wrote: »

Combustion engined cars won't be illegal on Irish roads (save for rare exceptions) until 2045 when they stop issuing NCT certs for them. Petrol won't be banned, will just become rare to find save for certain niches.

Most will be NCT exempt by then so won’t be illegal....if they haven’t been scrapped for other reasons.

unkel

The sale of petrol / diesel will never be banned. No more new petrol or diesel cars will be sold after 2030 and no more petrol / diesel cars will pass an NCT after 2046. This means that there will be no more petrol / diesel cars on the road after 2046 unless they are already over 40 years old at that stage and no longer need an NCT

So a car from 2006 is the newest a car can become a classic. You all better start gathering up some nice pre 2006 cars, some of these will be worth a fortune in the future.

elperello

Rivers and lakes full of boats running on petrol and diesel and no plans to ban them any time soon so fuel will be available.

bazz26

It might not be banned but if the reliance on it and demand diminishes over the next few decades then you can be sure that it will become more scarce and quite expensive to buy for those who still need it's use. Be careful what you wish for.

recyclebin

Will not happen. Diesel will definitely still be needed for tractors, trucks, trains etc.

I've an NCT exempt bmw.
I better keep it

Atlantic Dawn

The ban can be revoked at any stage by another government. There was no political mandate by way of a referendum to bring it in.

mikeecho

It will never be banned, there just won't be demand for it .

tjhook

Yes, it won't be banned. There'll be no need.

When you're buying a new car in 2030 or 2035, the electric network will be extensive, the range on electric cars will be far better, scale will mean they won't be more expensive, the servicing will be cheaper. There'll be little reason for most people to want a petrol or diesel car. At that stage, a ban would be overkill.

galwaytt

tjhook wrote: »

Yes, it won't be banned. There'll be no need.

When you're buying a new car in 2030 or 2035, the electric network will be extensive, the range on electric cars will be far better, scale will mean they won't be more expensive, the servicing will be cheaper. There'll be little reason for most people to want a petrol or diesel car. At that stage, a ban would be overkill.

Lolz: reminds me of the Dallas scene where Patrick Ewing wasn't killed at all, and it was just 'a dream'.... :pac::pac:

This country has a shockingly poor record in recent decades on key infrastructure. Your assumption of the electric network being either more extensive - let alone reliable - is based on what, exactly ? The type of thing that sees the State build the worlds most expensive building ? The type of thing that sees the State 'roll out high speed broadband' for 15 years in a row now, ( ...and 6 more to go iirc) ? The type of thing that builds a functional, efficient and comprehensive Water system............

Didn't thinks so.

As for the cars themselves, they'll be as expensive as possible as long as possible, and will be dictated by manufacturers as a whole.

Finally, as to why you'd even then want a petrol ? Well.........I had my 996 through the NCT last night, and gurgling away with it's PSE on, well.....I can think of at least one flat-6 reason....

m5ex9oqjawdg2i

recyclebin wrote: »

Will not happen. Diesel will definitely still be needed for tractors, trucks, trains etc.

How are you so sure of this? Why can't a tractor, truck or train be electric?

marcos_94

galwaytt wrote: »

Lolz: reminds me of the Dallas scene where Patrick Ewing wasn't killed at all, and it was just 'a dream'.... :pac::pac:

This country has a shockingly poor record in recent decades on key infrastructure. Your assumption of the electric network being either more extensive - let alone reliable - is based on what, exactly ? The type of thing that sees the State build the worlds most expensive building ? The type of thing that sees the State 'roll out high speed broadband' for 15 years in a row now, ( ...and 6 more to go iirc) ? The type of thing that builds a functional, efficient and comprehensive Water system............

Completely agree that Ireland has a terrible record with infrastructure, but while EVs are dependent on fast chargers for longer drives in Ireland at the moment, that will not always be the case.

Battery tech trends and developments in energy density indicate that by 2030, most EVs on the market will have batteries large enough to have the range to suit the Irish market without perfect charging infrastructure. 99% of people dont drive more than 200 km per week so charging at home will cover them.

As for the cars themselves, they'll be as expensive as possible as long as possible, and will be dictated by manufacturers as a whole.

I dont agree with this at all when you have manufacturers like Dacia entering the market https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motor-shows-geneva-motor-show/new-dacia-suv-will-be-europes-most-affordable-ev

Finally, as to why you'd even then want a petrol ? Well.........I had my 996 through the NCT last night, and gurgling away with it's PSE on, well.....I can think of at least one flat-6 reason....

Lovely car, and I myself completely agree. Nothing will replace the sound of a petrol engine, but for the majority of people, they dont care about the car and sound really so whatever looks nice, has decent spec, and is within their price range will do

tjhook

galwaytt wrote: »

Your assumption of the electric network being either more extensive - let alone reliable - is based on what, exactly ? The type of thing that sees the State build the worlds most expensive building ? The type of thing that sees the State 'roll out high speed broadband' for 15 years in a row now, ( ...and 6 more to go iirc) ? The type of thing that builds a functional, efficient and comprehensive Water system............

Didn't thinks so.

You seem to feel strongly about this. I don't think it's anything to feel threatened about.

My assumption of a more extensive and reliable charging network is nothing more than a guess, seeing public adoption of other new technologies over previous decades. I don't have a dog in the fight, I'm not particularly wedded to either petrol or electric.

15 years ago, there were no smartphones, now you can't walk along a footpath without bumping into people using them. Along with the widespread 4G (too early to talk about 5G) networks to support them.

Commercial support will follow the money. I don't think the country is ready for widespread electric car adoption, but already some people are willing to commit to buying electric-only cars. I see that number increasing rather than decreasing. As adoption increases, the potential profit from charging points also increases. It becomes a self-fulfilling cycle.

In 15 years time, I'm fairly sure petrol/diesel cars will still outnumber electric cars. But I think sales of new electric cars will (give or take) match new petrol/diesel sales. I think enterprising sales people won't ignore a potential market for charging points, out of spite or entrenched support for petrol.

CiniO

1. Current government decisions to ban sale of combustion engine cars from 2030 and NCTing from 2045 is pure populism. They have no idea how quick will electric car evolution go ahead or if it will go ahead at all.

2. Last 10 years have shown that progress in electric cars is very slow, especially when it comes to battery capacity vs size/weight. If it won't improve quick (due to some still unknown technology) then there's absolutely no chance of banning combustion engine cars from 2030.

3. On the other hand if electric cars are not an answer, a new technology might appear which will be much more competitive with combustion engine cars than electric.

We'll just have to live and see...

Anyway wondering about it now, is about the same pointless and wondering about disappearance of petrol cars when diesels have shown their power around 2008 with cheapo tax and low CO2 emission which were meant to be so much ecological.

marcos_94

CiniO wrote: »

1. Current government decisions to ban sale of combustion engine cars from 2030 and NCTing from 2045 is pure populism. They have no idea how quick will electric car evolution go ahead or if it will go ahead at all.

There is a target in the National Energy and Climate Plan to have 936,000 electric vehicles on Irish roads by 2030, so yes, they do have a rough idea as to the uptake of electric cars.

2. Last 10 years have shown that progress in electric cars is very slow, especially when it comes to battery capacity vs size/weight. If it won't improve quick (due to some still unknown technology) then there's absolutely no chance of banning combustion engine cars from 2030.

Progress in electric cars over the last 10 years has been relatively slow, but progress in the last 3 years has been high. Just take a look at the massive decline in cost of lithium Ion batteries over the last 10 years - report on Levelised Cost of storage by Lazard. https://www.lazard.com/media/451087/lazards-levelized-cost-of-storage-version-50-vf.pdf

Chart from Bloomberg New Energy Finance:
[IMG][/img]https://data.bloomberglp.com/professional/sites/24/Capture32.jpg

3. On the other hand if electric cars are not an answer, a new technology might appear which will be much more competitive with combustion engine cars than electric.

We'll just have to live and see...

Anyway wondering about it now, is about the same pointless and wondering about disappearance of petrol cars when diesels have shown their power around 2008 with cheapo tax and low CO2 emission which were meant to be so much ecological.

Please elaborate on what you think may be better from a combustion perspective. Simple physics dictates that the efficiency of a combustion engine is limited by the Otto cycle for efficiency. Basically it means that the likes of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have a relatively low round trip efficiency compared to battery electric vehicles.

Check out this short video on hydrogen:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7MzFfuNOtY

swarlb

2 months ago nobody would have predicted that the world would grind to a virtual halt because of a life threatening virus...
Trying to predict what will happen in a months time, never mind 5 or 10 years in the future is a waste of energy.
Petrol will be here for a while yet, as will diesel... as will electric cars.
However if things continue to a point where the supply of fuel is limited, the humble bicycle, so hated by so many on here, might become the preferred mode of transport.

DaveyDave

The council decided only 60% of the new houses in my area get driveways, the rest get parking spaces. I can't have a cable across a public path to charge a car in a parking space. What am I supposed to do in that situation?

elperello

DaveyDave wrote: »

The council decided only 60% of the new houses in my area get driveways, the rest get parking spaces. I can't have a cable across a public path to charge a car in a parking space. What am I supposed to do in that situation?

This has come up on the EV section a few times. Pillar chargers can be installed as far as I know.

You could check out on this link.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/forumdisplay.php?f=1634&order=desc&page=2

I'd hazard a guess that they will have come up with a solution before petrol supplies become a problem.

galwaytt

Delilah Some Leprechaun wrote: »

How are you so sure of this? Why can't a tractor, truck or train be electric?

well for a start a small EV to move people around is what, 2 - 2.5 tonne? How much do you think an EV to move 44t around is going to be ?

Actually scratch that : it'll weigh 44t that's the road weight limit - but the EV unit will be so heavy payload will shrink enormously. So more vehicles & trips to deliver the same payload......

galwaytt

galwaytt wrote: »

well for a start a small EV to move people around is what, 2 - 2.5 tonne? How much do you think an EV to move 44t around is going to be ?

Actually scratch that : it'll weigh 44t that's the road weight limit - but the EV unit will be so heavy payload will shrink enormously. So more vehicles & trips to deliver the same payload......

A 500mile range battery pack for a truck was calculated as weighing 11,800kg in 2017 (11.6 tonnes).

It's 46 tonnes combined since 2013 (and for pre-2013 if the tractor unit has EBS and is plated for 46 tonnes)

We can always create a new weight limit for electric trucks.


I generally enjoy your posts but when it comes to EV stuff you do spout some amount of nonsense. Some waffle about the national broadband plan means we can't have a network of fast chargers in Ireland? Jesus Christ that's insane, even for the internet.

punisher5112

Be like mad Max and sand coming out of the tanks....

rdhma

Deleted User wrote: »

A 500mile range battery pack for a truck was calculated as weighing 11,800kg in 2017 (11.6 tonnes).

It's 46 tonnes combined since 2013 (and for pre-2013 if the tractor unit has EBS and is plated for 46 tonnes)

We can always create a new weight limit for electric trucks.

The weight limit for trucks relates to safety, the weight capacity of bridges and damage to roads.
Electric power isn't going to resolve any of those issues.

traco

2030 will become 2040 or more, add another 15 years to that and we are closing in on 2060.

If at that stage we are still depending on private vehicles for mass transport the place will be seriously screwed. The few enthusiastic ICE owners that will have cars of interest or the ability to maintain and run them will no so small as to be negligible.

Poulgorm

All electric by 2030. Some pipedream. Even if we do manage to build a charging network, we don't have the capacity to produce enough electricity for it.

Add to that, all the new houses which will be relying on heat pumps - which will put a fair bit of additional pressure on the grid too.

I think that the 2030 figure was just pulled out of the air - it's just to gave the impression that the government are serious about global warming.

We're good at that sort of thing.

Ubbquittious

I'd say it could be banned in the next few weeks at the rate we are going. The EV crowd won't be escaping either unless they want to drive around their back yard

marvin80

Ubbquittious wrote: »

I'd say it could be banned in the next few weeks at the rate we are going. The EV crowd won't be escaping either unless they want to drive around their back yard

Care to explain this statement?

Ubbquittious

marvin80 wrote: »

Care to explain this statement?

Corona virus

unkel

Poulgorm wrote: »

All electric by 2030. Some pipedream. Even if we do manage to build a charging network, we don't have the capacity to produce enough electricity for it.

Not that nonsense again. It's not like on 01/01/2030 all 2 million cars on our roads will be electric. It will be very gradual. And electric cars charge mainly at night, when we already produce more electricity than we can use a lot of the time

And to put things into perspective: an average house can produce more electricity per year than it consumes, just from a dozen solar panels on its roof

rdhma

rdhma wrote: »

The weight limit for trucks relates to safety, the weight capacity of bridges and damage to roads.
Electric power isn't going to resolve any of those issues.

Citation needed. Low loaders regularly transport loads far above 46ton across the country.

ironclaw

This debate comes up a lot when I come home from Canada and I always point to the absolute scale of Canada versus Ireland when people talk of these bans. For starters, there are areas in Canada that are 24+ hours away. Solid driving. No electric car can currently do this and if they could, these areas don't have the network to recharge them. So already, even with the best evolvement of battery tech, we're not going to replace 'last mile' transportation. And say we did produce super batteries, they are going to be far more expensive than the ones put in the average, affordable car. In Irish terms, that rules out everyone that doesn't live in the major cities.

Next, in terms of economics, there is no way, absolutely none, that in 10 years there will be cars cheap enough and effective enough for Joe Soap to afford, let alone drive as we currently do. I'm talking the people who want a car from A to B, no-frills. The best these people will be offered is what is on sale now, which are far from usable for the current mindset of getting in and go.

To give a concrete example, Ford sells an F150 every minute in Canada. You need to convince every single one of those owners to give up a V8 Hemi and the 'look' that truck brings.

And that's before you consider our infrastructure and social mindset is currently nowhere near the capacity to charge a country worth of cars each evening. There has to be a paradigm shift, not only in how we own a car but also how we use them.

The best outcome I can see by 2030 is that we'll see higher electric ownership in cities, more car sharing, better-charging infrastructure and perhaps autonomous only highways in major countries. But we're not going to see petrol go out of fashion or use in our lifetimes.

rdhma

Deleted User wrote: »

Citation needed. Low loaders regularly transport loads far above 46ton across the country.

I didn't say it was impossible for a specific journey.
Basic physics really, but here you go:

https://www.rsa.ie/en/Utility/News/2015/NEW-REGULATIONS-ON-VEHICLE-WEIGHT-LIMITS/
"a 46 tonne vehicle will have proportionately more momentum and kinetic energy than one operating at either 42/44 tonnes, and thus have greater propensity for casualty causation and damage in the event of a collision."

https://rsa.ie/Documents/Your%20Vehicle/Ag_vehicles/weights_dimensions_regs.pdf
"the weight transmitted to the surface of a road by a single axle of a mechanically propelled vehicle or trailer shall not exceed 10 tonnes."

Yes you can add more axles. That adds complexity and expense and you will then need an abnormal load permit, per journey for a truck longer than 16.5 metres.

rdhma

rdhma wrote: »

I didn't say it was impossible for a specific journey.
Basic physics really, but here you go:

https://www.rsa.ie/en/Utility/News/2015/NEW-REGULATIONS-ON-VEHICLE-WEIGHT-LIMITS/
"a 46 tonne vehicle will have proportionately more momentum and kinetic energy than one operating at either 42/44 tonnes, and thus have greater propensity for casualty causation and damage in the event of a collision."

https://rsa.ie/Documents/Your%20Vehicle/Ag_vehicles/weights_dimensions_regs.pdf
"the weight transmitted to the surface of a road by a single axle of a mechanically propelled vehicle or trailer shall not exceed 10 tonnes."

Yes you can add more axles. That adds complexity and expense and you will then need an abnormal load permit, per journey for a truck longer than 16.5 metres.

Basic physics doesn't explain why 46 tonnes is a hardcap on weight limit but 50 e.g. tonnes can't be.

We didn't use to have 46 tonne limits. We didn't use to have 44 tonne limits. Limits and standards have always evolved and will continue to do so, but apparently 'basic physics' magically means they can't.

Someone who understands basic physics should understand this, so I'm going to take a wild guess and suggest that you're overestimating your own intellect.


Thanks tho.

rdhma

Deleted User wrote: »

Basic physics doesn't explain why 46 tonnes is a hardcap on weight limit but 50 e.g. tonnes can't be.

We didn't use to have 46 tonne limits. We didn't use to have 44 tonne limits. Limits and standards have always evolved and will continue to do so, but apparently 'basic physics' magically means they can't.

Someone who understands basic physics should understand this, so I'm going to take a wild guess and suggest that you're overestimating your own intellect.


Thanks tho.

I simply stated that weight limits cannot be arbitrarily increased for general traffic without knock-on consequences. My 'basic physics' comment was in response to your request for a citation on this.

galwaytt

Ubbquittious wrote: »

Corona virus

Au contraire: having a car allows you go out for a spin and not infect anyone, whilst avoiding going stir-crazy at home.

bladespin

galwaytt wrote: »

Au contraire: having a car allows you go out for a spin and not infect anyone, whilst avoiding going stir-crazy at home.

A car is literally a controlled environment, we may even get to the stage where shops want to put goods directly into your boot after payment instead of interraction.

ELM327

unkel wrote: »

The sale of petrol / diesel will never be banned. No more new petrol or diesel cars will be sold after 2030 and no more petrol / diesel cars will pass an NCT after 2046. This means that there will be no more petrol / diesel cars on the road after 2046 unless they are already over 40 years old at that stage and no longer need an NCT

So a car from 2006 is the newest a car can become a classic. You all better start gathering up some nice pre 2006 cars, some of these will be worth a fortune in the future.

Not quite, a 2007 car becomes NCT exempt in 2047 etc.

ELM327

Ubbquittious wrote: »

I'd say it could be banned in the next few weeks at the rate we are going. The EV crowd won't be escaping either unless they want to drive around their back yard

I dont have enough back yard to use my 400km of EV range.

cycling is fun

I do not think they will be able to ban petrol completely, its used for other things not just cars, lawnmowers, strimmers, chainsaws, some old tractors also people may still have old vintage cars that they want to use so I do not think they can ban completely. Not in the short term anyways

foxy farmer

No mention of biodiesel or E85?

Third_Echelon

Poulgorm wrote: »

All electric by 2030. Some pipedream. Even if we do manage to build a charging network, we don't have the capacity to produce enough electricity for it.

Your statement is false. ESB have this all planned for: https://www.esbnetworks.ie/docs/default-source/default-document-library/esb-networks-ev-report.pdf?sfvrsn=adf805f0_0

20% EV penetration -> 350 million Euro investment required.
With the current penetration, the network handles everything just fine.

ironclaw wrote: »

To give a concrete example, Ford sells an F150 every minute in Canada. You need to convince every single one of those owners to give up a V8 Hemi and the 'look' that truck brings.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXFHgoon7lg

Tenzor07

You'll be waiting a while longer before a petrol combustion engined car will be banned.

With the current oil price war driving down fuel costs, EV's become less attractive. 4 litres of petrol in the U.S is currently about €1.88

Added to the fact that you pay almost a €10,000 premium on an EV. After this global crisis is over then budgets for new vehicles will take 2nd place to environmental concerns.

Also the supply chain in China for EV's has become severely affected.

VW and other major motor manufacturers shutting down all production shortly, and the development budgets to produce more advanced EV's will be used to keep companies afloat in times of zero sales, petrol combustion engined vehicles don't need a development budget.

bazz26

I'd say we will all be on horse and carts again with the way things are going.

elperello

bazz26 wrote: »

I'd say we will all be on horse and carts again with the way things are going.

Probably "poverty spec" at that.

Not "a nice place to be".