Cheltenham, Tuesday March 10th, Champion Hurdle Day

RivetingRoger

So folks, it is upon us


Months of waiting, scares about it going ahead, it is now upon us.
As with previous years, we can discuss each day individually on their threads, and general discussions on the main Cheltenham forum, if people want to of course.....


So, the Tuesday...


Have been strong on Abacadabras for a long time now. All the rain was a worry, but with conditions improving as we speak and talk of good to soft on day 1, he is back on my list again as a confident selection
Asterion Forlonge would be my alternative


Notebook for me in the Arkle. People doing, as they always do, look for reasons to crab the form the closer we get. Notebook keeps beating the Irish contenders and if Brewinupastorm is Britains challenger then I don't see much to be worried about there.


Am on Epatante since Christmas at 16/1 for the CH, and I am as confident as ever, have Couer Sublime ew at a similar price.


Can't decide between the 2 favs in the Mares. One minute i am thinking Beni is a sure thing, next I am looking at Honeysuckles 1111111 and thinking, at money against.....is it a gift??? Possible just put both into multiples on the day


Was on champagne classic for the NHC and was quite bullish. The horse not running leaves me with probably Lord De Mesnil ew at a decent price
Can't have a fav that short (7/2) in this race.....


In the handicaps, I like Discorama and Kildisart in the Ultima
Knight in Dubai and Paint the dream in the NT


Keep this thread to just Tuesday lads

Slattsy

Fúck off! Too early.

Croll

RivetingRoger wrote: »

So folks, it is upon us

Was on champagne classic for the NHC and was quite bullish. The horse not running leaves me with probably Lord De Mesnil ew at a decent price
Can't have a fav that short (7/2) in this race.....

CS is 15/8 not 7/2 :cool:

NaiveMelodies

Presenting Percy for the GC for sure.

Vautours Ghost

Keep this thread to just Tuesday lads[/QUOTE]


My Tuesday Efforts:



1.30pm- Shiskin (4/1), Capt Guinness (12/1)

2.10pm- Fakir D'Oudaires 5/1, Brewinupastorm 10/1

2.50pm- Actival 20/1, Discorama (14/1)

3.30pm- Couer Sublime (20/1), Fusil Raffles (16/1)

4.10pm - BDD ( 4/5)

4.50pm - Deryann De Carjac (14/1) Put The Kettle On (12/1)

5.30pm - Carefully Selected (3/1)


Fakir D'oudairies, Epatante (DOUBLE) - 21/1

maximo31

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Presenting Percy for the GC for sure.

:):)

The Mig

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Presenting Percy for the GC for sure.

Honeysuckle for the CH

The Mig

Sorry Naive couldn't help myself

Slattsy

Anyone got the latest decs after the confirmation stage for the Tuesday?

RivetingRoger

Slattsy wrote: »

Anyone got the latest decs after the confirmation stage for the Tuesday?

You.........you are barred!

NaiveMelodies

The Mig wrote: »

Honeysuckle for the CH

Love it!

akelly02

i wonder could percy run in the champion hurdle , he would have a great chance in both

BoldReason

Andrew is posting up the 6 day decs as usual if people are interested.

Take a look at andrew smith (@festivalracing): https://twitter.com/festivalracing?s=09

RivetingRoger

Honeysuckle still in the CH

MaxBet

SUPREME


4 of the past 7 winners had won a Grade 1 novice hurdle on their previous start (from just 7 qualifiers)

Horses with an official rating of 154 or higher are 4-7 in the last 6 years

Last-time-out winners have won 20 of the last 23 runnings

Willie Mullins has saddled 4 of the last
7 winners and 6 in total (all 4 recent winners were his shortest-priced runner)

7 of the past 18 winners had won a
Grade 1 novice hurdle earlier in the season

The past 8 winners had all won a Graded novice hurdle

7 of the past 18 winners had contested a Graded bumper at one of the previous season’s spring festivals

Respect horses with a BHA Rating of 150 or higher

The last 11 winners had run a minimum of 4 times over hurdles

3 of the past 7 winners contested the Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle

Only 3 of the past 11 winners had failed to win a Grade 1 or Grade 2 novice hurdle

Menorah is the only winner in the past 11 years to have no previous Graded form to his name

Genuine ex-Flat horses have struggled in recent seasons

Only 2 of the last 17 winners were unbeaten

Be wary of the Betfair Hurdle winner/form (0-7 in the past decade)

Nicky Henderson is 1-36 since 1993 (Altior his only winner during this period)

MaxBet

ARKLE


Willie Mullins has saddled 4 of the last 5 winners (all 4 were French-bred)

14 of the past 20 winners had won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 over fences earlier in the season

16 of the past 18 winners had won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 over fences or hurdles

5 of the past 7 winners had won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 over both fences and hurdles (5-11 during this 7-year period)

15 winners this century (including the last 10) won last time out

15 of the last 21 winners were unbeaten over fences when completing

12 of the last 16 winners run at the previous year’s Cheltenham Festival (4 won)

13 of the last 15 winners had run 3 or 4 times over fences

20 of the past 27 winners went chasing after just one season hurdling

Only 2 winners this century had fallen earlier in the season

5-y-os are 0-11 since the age allowance was removed (12 years ago)

Paul Nicholls has struggled since winning the race with Azertyuiop (12 of his last 13 runners have finished unplaced)

MaxBet

ULTIMA


Novices with previous Festival form are 4-19 in the past 11 years

Grade 1-winning hurdlers are 4-14 in the past 11 years

8 of the past 12 winners were rated between 142 and 148 (with 6 of them between 142 and 145)

Respect horses who have run well in the race previously (and festival form
in general)

Respect horses with form over 3m+

The last 5 winners ran at Cheltenham in January

8 winners in the last 10 years (and 6 of the last 7) ran at Cheltenham earlier in the season

4 winners in the last 10 years ran in the Cleeve Hurdle

Only 1 winner in the past 11 years had failed to run at the festival previously

Only 4 winners this century have gone off bigger than 11/1

Irish-trained horses are 0-24 since winning the race in 2006

Only 2 Irish-trained winners in the last 51 renewals (since 1967)

MaxBet

CHAMPION HURDLE


Unbeaten hurdlers (during this season) have won the last 5 renewals from just 12 runners

The previous season’s Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (front 3) has provided 4 of the last 21 winners from just 9 runners

JP McManus has owned 5 of the past 10 winners and 8 overall

12 of the past 21 winners had won at the festival previously

13 of the past 24 winners (and 7 of the past 9) were unbeaten during the current season

25 of the past 30 winners won last-time-out

Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins have won 8 of the past 11 renewals (4 each, with Henderson having won the race
7 times in all)

Respect previous Champion Hurdle form
5 of the past 11 winners contested the Christmas Hurdle

Despite the victory of Espoir d’Allen, the record of five-year-olds is 2-102 during the past 33 years

Only 2 of the last 21 winners hadn’t run the festival previously

10-y-os (or older) are 0-28 in the past 37 renewals

Hurricane Fly is the only horse to regain their crown since Comedy Of Errors
in 1975

MaxBet

MARES HURDLE


Willie Mullins has won 9 of the past 11 renewals

French-bred (FR) mares have won
9 renewals from just 20% representation
10 of the 12 winners had won or placed in a Graded race against the boys
(9 of which came in Grade 1 or Grade 2 company)

The 3 Irish-bred winners all ran in bumpers (2 won)

Respect mares with proven stamina
9 winners had already won at either Grade 1 or Grade 2 level

10 of the 12 winners were trained in Ireland

The last 11 winners had won over a minimum of 2m4f

British-bred mares are 0-78 (despite 40% representation)

Only 7 British-bred mares have hit the frame

No ex-Flat horse has won this race

Only 1 winner had failed to at least place in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 hurdle

MaxBet

NOVICE CHASE


3 of the past 4 winners contested a Graded novice chase last time out

11 of the past 12 winners had run 3 or 4 times over fences

14 of the 15 winners had won no more than twice over fences (11 of them winning no more than once)

12 of the 15 winners won or finished second last time out

3 of the past 7 winners contested the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase

6 of the 15 winners had contested a hurdle race at a previous festival

9 of the 15 winners were sent off at single-figures

8 of the past 13 winners ran in a bumper earlier in their career

Five-year-olds are 2-12 in the past 11 years

Only 2 of the 15 winners have started bigger than 12/1

No winner had failed to run after the turn of the year

Only 4 winners weren’t aged 6 or 7

Only 1 horse (Mister Whitaker) has finished in the first four from a rating below 141 since the ceiling increased

MaxBet

NH CHASE


5 of the past 10 winners were having their 10th start (or more) over fences

(3 of the past 5 winners had run 10 times over fences previously)

9 of the past 10 winners had contested a Graded novice chase

5 of the past 8 winners had contested a Grade 1 novice chase

Horses rated 150 or higher are 4-10 in the past 9 years

7 of the past 10 winners had run at the festival previously

Gordon Elliott has saddled 3 winners from just 7 runners

Respect Jonjo O’Neill and Willie Mullins

Focus on the leading amateur riders
Derek O’Connor, Patrick Mullins and Jamie Codd have won the race 6 times between them (2 each) in the past
9 years

4 of the past 9 winners had run in a novice chase at the course earlier in the season

Horses with less than 3 chase starts have a poor record

Only one horse officially rated in the 130s (139) has been successful in the past 8 years – the quality continues to rise

madmoose

For each trend could somebody pick out the ones in each race that meet them closest (too lazy myself to do them)

Dr. Bre

Ballyandy for the champion . And I’m sober !

MaxBet

I gave up backing directly from the trends but they can be a pointer or add a bit of weight to a decision.

HarshOstrich

Honeysuckle will run in champion hurdle, connections came out yesterday saying the mares was the race but i think they were just trying to send benie to the champion.
I can't see the 2 of them facing off as they can both win more prestigious races.

NaiveMelodies

HarshOstrich wrote: »

Honeysuckle will run in champion hurdle, connections came out yesterday saying the mares was the race but i think they were just trying to send benie to the champion.
I can't see the 2 of them facing off as they can both win more prestigious races.

Hahaha I wish you were right

tayto lover

HarshOstrich wrote: »

Honeysuckle will run in champion hurdle, connections came out yesterday saying the mares was the race but i think they were just trying to send benie to the champion.
I can't see the 2 of them facing off as they can both win more prestigious races.

I don’t believe that will happen.

NaiveMelodies

tayto lover wrote: »

I don’t believe that will happen.

It won't. HDB quoted sure.

Slattsy

HarshOstrich wrote: »

Honeysuckle will run in champion hurdle, connections came out yesterday saying the mares was the race but i think they were just trying to send benie to the champion.
I can't see the 2 of them facing off as they can both win more prestigious races.

Good angle, i like it.

HarshOstrich

Benie would beat honeysuckle in the mares in my eyes so honeysuckle should go champion, its a race she would have a better chance in.
De bromheads timing of his comments are very interesting and he could easily go back on his word by saying champion looks the easier race or the ground is still quite soft.

CORMACREYN

Put The Kettle On taken out of the Nov Hcap Chase on the Tuesday, still entered in the Arkle.

carq

Very tricky day, usually tuesday has some bankers but not this year in any race!?
Could be a tough one for punters to get off to a good start, but if you do manage to get some winners you should get decent prices.

Still undecided on my selection on supreme, champ hurdle, mares hurdle

Motivator

This is one of the trickiest festivals I’ve come across. Very few bankers in my eyes and I think over the course of the week the once a year crowd that usually make money, despite having zero knowledge, will get taken to the cleaners if they’re not careful.

For what it’s worth, I think Delta Work will win the Gold Cup, A Plus Tard will win the Ryanair, Canardier will win the Coral Cup and Defi Du Seuil will win an absolute classic in the Champion Chase.

longshotvalue

CORMACREYN wrote: »

Put The Kettle On taken out of the Nov Hcap Chase on the Tuesday, still entered in the Arkle.

Ffs. Madness.

Coneygree

1.30:
Asterion @5.50 the big one.
Fiddlerontheroof @9
Edwardstone @ 23

Might back Aba closer to the day if he continues to drift. Giving up the game if they reroute Envoi Allen. Shishkin the lay of the festival after Champ.

2.10:
Cash Back and Brewinupastorm, both @8.

2.50:
Discorama @13. EW play on Brave Eagle @26

3.30:
Pig of a race. Supasundae @13 my main bet. EW bets on Darver Star @17 and Call Me Lord @21

4.10:
No bet and will probably stay a no bet. Still have the shakes after last year...

4.50:
Beakstown @17 and Espoir De Guye @13

5.30:
Copperhead was my main bet here and that's now f*cked. Managed to grab Ravenhill @18.5 late last week before the price plummeted. Did the same with Ocean Cove @100. Also have Lord Du Mesnil @11.

Slattsy

Two or three horses per race. Makes economical sense. Why not back them all each way?

Motivator

Coneygree wrote: »

1.30:
Asterion @5.50 the big one.
Fiddlerontheroof @9
Edwardstone @ 23

Might back Aba closer to the day if he continues to drift. Giving up the game if they reroute Envoi Allen. Shishkin the lay of the festival after Champ.

2.10:
Cash Back and Brewinupastorm, both @8.

2.50:
Discorama @13. EW play on Brave Eagle @26

3.30:
Pig of a race. Supasundae @13 my main bet. EW bets on Darver Star @17 and Call Me Lord @21

4.10:
No bet and will probably stay a no bet. Still have the shakes after last year...

4.50:
Beakstown @17 and Espoir De Guye @13

5.30:
Copperhead was my main bet here and that's now f*cked. Managed to grab Ravenhill @18.5 late last week before the price plummeted. Did the same with Ocean Cove @100. Also have Lord Du Mesnil @11.

Christ above, I couldn’t see any fun in betting like that. I couldn’t enjoy a race shouting for two or three horses, not the same buzz at all. I remember seeing a guy back 5 horses in a 7 runner race at Punchestown a few years ago and he still didn’t back the winner.

RivetingRoger

Are people backing brewinupastorm on a leap of faith or do they really think he is good enough to beat the Irish horses?
I can't see it atall

FiftyP

I'll be completely honest and say my knowledge of racing extends to a few random weekdays spent in the pub, betting on whatever €6000 race is running on a Tuesday no-one cares about. I'm still looking forward to Cheltenham and have been holding back all week to build up to next Tuesday.

This are the bets I've placed so far, although come midday on the tenth I'm sure I'll be running to the bookie's going balloobas stupid with money I shouldn't be risking. All these are high risk, high reward (most likely no reward) but it'll give me something to cheer. I really don't have the knowledge to be looking for value in a market/horse, so I just go for what I can shout about.

13:30 - Supreme Novices Hurdle - Captain Guinness
14:10 - Arkle - Put The Kettle On
15:30 - Champion Hurdle - Fusil Raffles
16:10 - Mares Hurdle - Black Tears
17:30 - National Hunt Chase (Amateurs) - Lord du Mesnil

I still have no clue about the handicaps, especially seeing as there's still a huge amount of declarations for them.

RivetingRoger

FiftyP wrote: »

I'll be completely honest and say my knowledge of racing extends to a few random weekdays spent in the pub, betting on whatever €6000 race is running on a Tuesday no-one cares about. I'm still looking forward to Cheltenham and have been holding back all week to build up to next Tuesday.

This are the bets I've placed so far, although come midday on the tenth I'm sure I'll be running to the bookie's going balloobas stupid with money I shouldn't be risking. All these are high risk, high reward (most likely no reward) but it'll give me something to cheer. I really don't have the knowledge to be looking for value in a market/horse, so I just go for what I can shout about.

13:30 - Supreme Novices Hurdle - Captain Guinness
14:10 - Arkle - Put The Kettle On
15:30 - Champion Hurdle - Fusil Raffles
16:10 - Mares Hurdle - Black Tears
17:30 - National Hunt Chase (Amateurs) - Lord du Mesnil

I still have no clue about the handicaps, especially seeing as there's still a huge amount of declarations for them.

Hope u did those NRNB did you buddy?

FiftyP

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Hope u did those NRNB did you buddy?

I did. But I'm that dog in goggles doing science in all this.

Banner2theend

Best bets for day one.

2:10 Brewinupastorm win
2:50 Vinndication win
3:30 Couer Sublime win

Still haven't decided the final leg of my Cheltenham yankee for Tuesday. Best of luck folks!

HarshOstrich

Benie getting declared for the mares according to chapman after talking to mullins, honeysuckle will go champion in my opinion,best chance of winning surely.

MaxBet

Motivator wrote: »

Christ above, I couldn’t see any fun in betting like that. I couldn’t enjoy a race shouting for two or three horses, not the same buzz at all. I remember seeing a guy back 5 horses in a 7 runner race at Punchestown a few years ago and he still didn’t back the winner.

Couldn’t disagree more , I’d often have 2 in a race, sometimes more if the size of the field and the make up of the market allow for it

MaxBet

Anyone backing 5 in a 7 runner obviously needs locking up though

Andrew00

Done most of my Cheltenham money on Chelmsford this evening after a few pints. Could not help it.

Now have to go borrow money from the credit union on Monday morning. Absolutely sickened with myself after I vowed earlier in the week I'd stay away from it.

carq

Andrew00 wrote: »

Done most of my Cheltenham money on Chelmsford this evening after a few pints. Could not help it.

Now have to go borrow money from the credit union on Monday morning. Absolutely sickened with myself after I vowed earlier in the week I'd stay away from it.

Dont think borrowing money from a credit union to gamble is the wisest move

markc91

Am i missing elsewhere or is there a wednesday thread up?

Andrew00

carq wrote: »

Dont think borrowing money from a credit union to gamble is the wisest move

Well I'm going over with 2 mates and need money but as usual I go gambling on dogs*it racing like all weather racing and lose a few hundred. Feel like sh*t

IAMAMORON

Andrew00 wrote: »

Done most of my Cheltenham money on Chelmsford this evening after a few pints. Could not help it.

Now have to go borrow money from the credit union on Monday morning. Absolutely sickened with myself after I vowed earlier in the week I'd stay away from it.

Get it sorted and enjoy your racing. Losing money happens, pick yourself up and back some winners next week.

If you have a few on tuesday all will be forgotten.

RivetingRoger

Andrew00 wrote: »

Done most of my Cheltenham money on Chelmsford this evening after a few pints. Could not help it.

Now have to go borrow money from the credit union on Monday morning. Absolutely sickened with myself after I vowed earlier in the week I'd stay away from it.

Tell me you are joking Andy.....