General British politics discussion thread

Peregrinus

It's pretty much an indication that the Tories have abandoned hope of winning the election, or even of holding a chunk of the centre ground. The policy has been widely derided and, desirability aside, it's completely impractical. But it polls well with the cohort of voters who might choose between the Tory and Reform parties, so it looks like they've decided that their strategic aim in this election will be to hold those voters against Reform. They're trying to shore up the right, rather than appeal to the centre.

VinLieger

Im shocked we haven't seen Iain Duncan Smith stepping down considering he only one in 2019 by 1200 votes he surely is under serious threat of losing quite badly.

ArmaniJeanss

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122189020#Comment_122189020

There's a long time (comparatively speaking) until they have to make their decision to stand or not - June 7th. Though presumably the local associations will want the decision a bit sooner than that.

With this being a bank holiday weekend in the UK, I'd expect there'll be a few more names cropping up tomorrow. "I spent the weekend discussing with my family and have taken the difficult decision, been a privilege, time for new chapter etc".

By some accounts in the newspapers, Labour have 15 constituencies where they have yet to announce their candidate whilst the Conservatives have 160.

Brussels Sprout

Just looking at some notable names (i.e. people I've actually heard of as someone from a different country with a passing interest in UK politics) from the current list of MPs (in order of when they were first elected) who have announced they will not be standing for re-election:

• Harriet Harmon (LAB)
• Bill Cash (CON)
• John Redwood (CON)
• Graham Brady (CON)
• Teresa May (CON)
• Jeffrey Donaldson (IND)
• Chris Grayling (CON)
• Charles Walker (CON)
• Ben Wallace (CON)
• Michael Gove (CON
• Sajid Javid (CON)
• Matt Hancock (CON)
• George Eustice (CON)
• Dominic Raab (CON)
• Caroline Lucas (GRN)
• Alok Sharma (CON)
• Kwasi Kwarteng (CON)
• Brandon Lewis (CON)
• Nadhim Zahawi (CON)
• Chris Heaton-Harris (CON)
• Andrea Leadsom (CON)
• William Wragg (IND)
• Ian Blackford (SNP)
• Mhairi Black (SNP)
• Douglas Ross (CON)
• Natalie Elphicke (LAB)

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122189120#Comment_122189120

Lots of families gonna be used as scapegoats over the next few days.

Christy42

It would be hilarious to see them try and enforce national service in the North. Overall it seems like a waste of time really and the army would need massive adjustments to deal with basic training for thousands of 18 year olds that don't want to be there and won't be of any actual use while they are there. Presumably they would also need funding for it as well to feed and house them all. Overall I don't see it as a massive deal outside of the wasted time. Not like they would be doing any real work or fighting. However it is just thrown out there as a random vote getter for a cohort when they know that they will get slaughtered and won't have to implement it.

breezy1985

The real reason for It is gives us and the media something to talk about that isn't how fuked the country is.

Leroy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122189214#Comment_122189214

And moves the conversation away from the disastrous start to the campaign. The Sunday shows should have been dominated by the complete lack of preparation from the Tory side. The continued resignations, the failure of Sunak to consult the cabinet, the dropping of the Rwanda flights pledge, the dropping of the smoking ban legislation.

That was all dropped off the top talking points to discuss this silly and unworkable idea.

So the plan worked as expected

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122189371#Comment_122189371

Except all the talk is how daft the idea is; how unworkable it is; how unpopular it will be for those forced to go through it; how it is even more stupid the the Rwanda scheme that has cost millions for absolutely nothing.

Tom Mann Centuria

https://twitter.com/vicderbyshire/status/1795344065434620299?t=K5ZdXA20O0u4Ez3fluE74Q&s=19

Labour probably need to make a decision now, one way or the other. Not doing them or Abbott any favours. I'm personally not convinced now that she'd stand as an independent if she isn't allowed to stand for Labour.

blackwhite

She’s been a liability for over 20 years at this stage and personally I think the Labour Party would be better off without such a hypocrite in the ranks.

That said - a decision one way or the other should have been made months ago. Stupid to let it drag out

ArmaniJeanss

No new Tories on the 'spend more time with the hedge-fund, I mean family' bandwagon over the last 24 hours, but interestingly a string of Labour MPs generally from safe seats. Seems a curious time to stop after 14 years in opposition with the promised land on the horizon. Would it be cynical of me to suggest that a few spots in the HoL are coming their way?

Will they be replaced by parachutists carefully selected by Labour HQ, or will the local party get to select from those activists who have spent 2 decades working for the party. I think @Tom Mann Centuria knows the answer.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/28/keir-starmer-allies-replace-retiring-labour-mps-safe-seats-general-election

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122192654#Comment_122192654

Going when you know its pretty much assured your replacement will get in is sometimes a good thing, some US Supreme Court judges could have paid more attention to it!

VinLieger

Tories still missing candidates for 183 seats, its gonna be fascinating to see all the skeletons that get found in the closets of all the rushed decisions they will be forced to make within the next week.

Timberrrrrrrr

GMP drop investigation into Angela Rayner, right wing gobshìtes on twitter losing their minds 🤣

ancapailldorcha

I was just going to post about that.

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1795469862422138933

The Tories are led by a man with a non-domiciled wife and they increased their wealth by £120 million in the past year.

ArmaniJeanss

Couple of poll things. Doesn't appear anything the Conservatives have tried has broken through as of yet.

Survation.

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1795478013594735043

Redfield and Wilton. A huge poll as these things go, 12,000 people.

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1795485183073775620

Brussels Sprout

Anyone have any theories about what Reform/Tice/Farage's end goal is?

• They know they are unlikely to win many/any seats
• They know they're a major thorn in the side of the Tories

Come July Labour are likely to be in power with a massive majority. The Tories will probably end up nominating some head banger like Braverman as their next leader.

What then for Reform?

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122194851#Comment_122194851

They want to destroy the Conservatives, either by taking over after the inevitable defeat or by replacing them. It's worth noting that Reform UK is not a real party. It's Farage's personal device, funded by Tice. There's no way to vote for the leader or any set of rules as far as I can see.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122194851#Comment_122194851

They exist to force the Tories to the right in the same way UKIP convinced them a Brexit referendum was a vote winner.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122194877#Comment_122194877

Taking over might be their best bet if the aim is to become a 'force' in British politics.

Brussels Sprout

Diane Abbott booted

Podge_irl

While I have no time for her as a politician, I would hope they have a strong rationale for it to avoid unnecessary backlash.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122195094#Comment_122195094

Not sure what the (public) excuse will be, but pretty sure the reason is her being too much of a loose cannon.

A Dub in Glasgo

Starmer really is a nasty piece of work

Tom Mann Centuria

If the independent in Islington North has a decent chance (polls tight there) I'd say Abbott would be a shoo-in if she decided to stand as an independent in her constituency. As I said earlier though, dunno if she'll bother.

Water John

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122195397#Comment_122195397

Hardly in the same league as Boris, if you think he is to be described similarly.

Peter Flynt

Starmer is as bad a campaigner as he is a leader. An election which he couldn't possibly lose is going to change rapidly. Tories have hit the ground running (after an initial bad start) whilst Starmer is concentrating on banning Diane Abbott from standing despite having being cleared of wrongdoing. Sunak should get someone to call Starmer a racist and set the cat amongst the pigeons.

Tories are also driving home successfully that Starmer is vacuous and stands for nothing. He has an awful shadow chancellor (Reeves) who is consistently asked, like Starmer, where she will cut services and she cannot answer.

This could be the 2017 UK election in reverse and end up as a hung parliament.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122196140#Comment_122196140

A lot of that sounds like wishful thinking.

Labour's lead will of course narrow but the thing most likely to cause a hung parliament would be Labour failing to make significant gains from the SNP. Without Scotland Labour would then need a mid-teens swing which I doubt they'll get.

Tony EH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122196140#Comment_122196140

Starmer has learned from the previous leader not to give away his stances on political subjects, because he knows from experience that he'll be torn apart with lies. There's no limit to the depths that the Tories and their allies will sink to to smear their opposition, so he's playing his cards very, very, close to his chest. So close, in fact, that even the people voting for his party have no idea what they are.

So, in essence, there is nothing for the Tories to cling to and throw mud at where Starmer is concerned. Is he a vacuous cypher of a leader? Yes, absolutely. But he's also ruthless in his pursuit of power and willing to do anything to achieve it. And if that means being a slippery fish with zero principles, he'll gladly be it.

Labour's lead may decrease a notch or two in the coming weeks, but there's no way it's going to "change rapidly" that it will mean a "hung parliament". This is, frankly, a fanciful assessment. There's certainly a chance that the Tories will start, in a more serious way, to look for dirt on him or Labour Party members from here until July and perhaps they'll land a few blows too. But the fact of the matter is that the British people have finally woken up to the reality of the Tufton Steet, ERG, reality that is the current Conservative Party and they are rejecting it.

It only took them over a decade to cop on.