March 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

The usual questions and a bonus ...

1. IMT for five locations (Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon) ... the 1981-2010 normal value is 6.8 C.

2. MAX for all 25 locations that report daily weather data on met.ie website.

3. MIN for all 25 locations also.

4. PRC for 11 locations (the five listed in (1) above plus Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork, Valentia) given as a percentage of normal.

5. SUN for 6 locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Shannon, Cork, Valentia) given as a percentage of normal.

6. BONUS _ On the 17th, what will be the highest temperature in Ireland, and where will it occur? (seven points for temperature, three for location with partial points for close but not exact). Superbonus available.

Deadline as always 0300h 1st (Sunday) with one point deducted for any portion of four hours late up to 36h, thereafter one point per hour.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen _____ 6.4 _ 16.3 _ -3.8 _ 80 _ 105 _ 12.8 Shannon Apt

Bsal

Bsal _____ 6.5 _ 17.9 _ -3.0 _ 103 _ 99 _ 11.0 Oak Park

200motels

200motels_____ 6.3_ 17.8_ -3.7_ 81_ 101_ 12.7 Shannon

Completely forgot about February.

John mac

john mac _____ 6.6 _ 19.3 _ -2.8 _ 104 _ 97 _ 15.8 oak park

dasa29

Dasa29 _____ 6.8 _ 17.5 _ -2.5 _ 110 _ 105 _ 16.5 mullingar

sunflower3

Sunflower3 _____ 7.2 _ 18.5 _ -2.4 _ 90 _ 115 _ 17 Oak Park

Artane2002

Artane2002 _____ 7.0 _ 16.3 _ -2.6 _ 95 _ 102 _ 13.2 Valentia

Jpmarn

Jpmarn _____ 7.5 _ 18.3 _ -2.1 _ 80 _ 130 _ 13.2 Shannon

Rikand

Rikand ___ 7.0 ___ 18.0 ___ -3.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 16.0 johnstown castle

Joe Public

Joe Public _____ 6.2 _ 19.3 _ -5.8 _ 120 _ 110 _ 12.9 Belmullet

pauldry

Pauldry_____ 6.8_ 18.2 _ -3.1 _ 100_ 100_ 14.5c Pheonix Park

Tae laidir

Tae laidir_____ 7.0 _ 17.2 _ -2.2 _ 121_ 100 _ 13.9 Moore Park

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _____ 6.6 _ 14.8 _ -3.3 _ 98 _ 106 _ 12.7 Casement

waterways

waterways _____ 6.9 _ 18.2 _ -1.8 _ 117_ 098_ 18.9 Mount Dillon

dacogawa

Dacogawa_____ 6.7_ 17.7_ -2.9_ 126_ 101_ 14.2c Oak Park

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 6.6 ___ 17.5 ___ -2.9 ___ 80 ___ 110 ___ 14.0 Oak Park.

mickger844posts

mickger844posts_____ 6.0 _ 15.3 _ -2.8 _ 90 _ 105 _ 10.8 Oak Park

mrskinner

Mrskinner_____6.2_____16°_____-3.9°_____110_____90_____12.5° Valentia

adam240610

Adam240610__ 7.1__17.0__-2.9__113__90 __14 .2-Moorepark

M.T. Cranium

MTC _____ 7.9 __ 22.5 __ -4.0 __ 084 __ 125 ___ 16.6 Finner

NormaL will be set in the table of entries

waterways

waterways wrote: »

waterways _____ 6.9 _ 18.2 _ -1.8 _ 117_ 098_ 18.9 Mount Dillon

Oops, there is a typo, should have been 15.9

BLIZZARD7

BLIZZARD7_____ 5.8 __ 16.8 __ -6.3 __ 120 __ 115 ___ 6.7c Valentia

Rikand

waterways wrote: »

Oops, there is a typo, should have been 15.9

I was wondering how your monthly max was 18.2 but paddy's day was going to top it

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for March 2020


FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 17th loc'n


M.T. Cranium ___________ 7.9 _ 22.5 _ -4.0 _ 084 _ 125 ____ 16.6 Finner

Jpmarn ________________ 7.5 _ 18.3 _ -2.1 _ 080 _ 130 ____ 13.2 Shannon

Sunflower3 _____________ 7.2 _ 18.5 _ -2.4 _ 090 _ 115 ____ 17.0 Oak Park

Adam240610 ____________7.1 _ 17.0 _ -2.9 _ 113 _ 090 ____ 14.2 Moorepark

Rikand _________________7.0 _ 18.0 _ -3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 16.0 Johnstown castle

Tae laidir _______________7.0 _ 17.2 _ -2.2 _ 121_ 100 ____ 13.9 Moorepark

Artane2002 _____________7.0 _ 16.3 _ -2.6 _ 095 _ 102 ____ 13.2 Valentia

waterways _____________ 6.9 _ 18.2 _ -1.8 _ 117 _ 098 ____ 15.9 Mount Dillon

Pauldry ________________6.8 _ 18.2 _ -3.1 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 14.5 Phoenix Park

Dasa29 ________________6.8 _ 17.5 _ -2.5 _ 110 _ 105 ____ 16.5 Mullingar

___ NormaL ____________ 6.8 _ 17.0 _ -5.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 13.9 (loc'n by climatology)

Dacogawa ______________6.7 _ 17.7_ -2.9 _ 126 _ 101 ____ 14.2 Oak Park

___ Con Sensus _________6.7 _ 17.7 _ -2.9 _ 103 _ 105 ____ 14.0 (see list)

john mac ______________ 6.6 _ 19.3 _ -2.8 _ 104 _ 097 ____ 15.8 Oak Park

Kindred Spirit ___________6.6 _ 17.5 _ -2.9 _ 080 _ 110 ____ 14.0 Oak Park

DOCARCH _____________ 6.6 _ 14.8 _ -3.3 _ 098 _ 106 ____ 12.7 Casement

Bsal __________________ 6.5 _ 17.9 _ -3.0 _ 103 _ 099 ____ 11.0 Oak Park

sryanbruen ____________ 6.4 _ 16.3 _ -3.8 _ 080 _ 105 ____ 12.8 Shannon

200motels _____________ 6.3 _ 17.8 _ -3.7 _ 081 _ 101 ____ 12.7 Shannon

Joe Public ______________6.2 _ 19.3 _ -5.8 _ 120 _ 110 ____ 12.9 Belmullet

Mrskinner ______________6.2 _ 16.0 _ -3.9 _ 110 _ 090 ____ 12.5 Valentia

mickger844posts ________6.0 _ 15.3 _ -2.8 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 10.8 Oak Park

BLIZZARD7 ___ (-3) _____5.8 _ 16.8 _ -6.3 _ 120 _ 115 _____ 6.7 Valentia

___________________________________________________________________

NormaL will score by climatology for location of max on 17th.

Con Sensus will score based on numbers of forecasts ...

_ 3 pts if Oak Park (6 picks),

_ 2 pts if Shannon (3 picks), Valentia (3 picks) or Moorepark (2 picks)

_ 1 pt if Finner, Belmullet, Casement, Johnstown Castle, Mountdillon, Phoenix Park, Mullingar (1 pick each)

_ 0 pts if any other location wins (incl Dublin, Dunsany, Newport, Claremorris, Athenry, Markree, Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Mace Head, Gurteen, Cork, Sherkin Is, Roche's Point, Knock)

Wonder if Knock has ever been the warmest place in Ireland?

Your location scoring will be 3/3 if you're right, 2/3 if the correct pick is closer to your location than any other location, and 1/3 if the correct pick is in the same province as your pick.

______________________________________________

The consensus of our 21 forecasts is very close to average for March. We seem to have about an equal split between those who suspect a turn to milder and drier (and therefore sunnier in most cases), or those who feel it could turn a bit cooler than average for a change, and these tend to favour wet and cloudy too.

John mac

Wonder if Knock has ever been the warmest place in Ireland?

1995 ?

Tae laidir

Moore Park - 2.9 yesterday.

Bsal

-3.9 Dublin airport this morning.

M.T. Cranium

Also saw -4 at Dunsany at 06h when preparing the forecast.

Check both tomorrow.

Jpmarn

MIN -4.2°C recorded at Dusany on the 5th.

I noticed a forecast of 22.5°C as a MAX in this months contest. If he is correct it would break the Max temperature record for March.

sryanbruen

Jpmarn wrote: »

MIN -4.2°C recorded at Dusany on the 5th.

I noticed a forecast of 22.5°C as a MAX in this months contest. If he is correct it would break the Max temperature record for March.

It wouldn't, the record is 23.6C from March 1965 at Trinity College.

M.T. Cranium

Here's where things stood after the first week ...

IMT was 5.1 which was 1.3 below normal.

MAX 13.8 and MIN -4.2

PRC was 82% of normal.

SUN was 171% of normal. (1025/600)

Latest guidance looks like 13-14 on the 17th at places like Oak Park or Moorepark (westerly flow).

M.T. Cranium

Oops, I forgot to update through the second week, will do that tomorrow to combine with a report on the max around the country today.

Joe Public

15.8C at Phoenix Park yesterday 17th, I see John mac had 15.8C

M.T. Cranium

Okay so here's the update on the contest ...

IMT now stands at 6.3 C.

MAX 15.8

MIN --4.2

PRC is about 150% of normal, or 80% of the final normal amount has already fallen (in 55% of the month). There has generally been a bit more than monthly normal amounts already in parts of the north, to about half in the south. With a fairly dry outlook, this may be trending towards a near normal finish.

SUN -- estimate this has been close to normal for the past ten days so blended with the high amount for days 1-7, the value is around 130% of normal.

=======================

For the bonus, max temp in Ireland on the 17th as reported above, 15.8 at Phoenix Park.

The scoring looks like this (superbonus was not awarded as all qualifying locations for 2 or 3 points scored 5 or less for temperature):

Scores show temp plus location. Location points are 3 for actual (PP), 2 for any other Dublin area station, 1 for Oak Park, Dunsany, Gurteen, Moorepark or Shannon which were all among the warmest. Mountdillon was missing and may or may not qualify also. Based on climatology NormaL scores 3 for location and based on choices, Con Sensus scores 1.

Scores arranged by temperature points, location points if any added within each group. I expanded some of the groups to place similar forecasts in the same scoring bracket.

7 pts __ John mac 15.8 (+1 loc = 8), waterways 15.9 (+tbd for loc = 7 or 8), Rikand 16.0 (0 pts for loc = 7).

6 pts __ Dasa29 16.5 (0 pts loc = 6), MTC 16.6 (0 pts loc = 6), Sunflower3 17.0 (+1 loc = 7).

5 pts __ Pauldry 14.5 (+3 loc = 8), Adam240610 and Dacogawa 14.2 (both +1 for loc = 6 total).

4 pts __ Kindred Spirit 14.0 (+1 loc = 5), Tae laidir 13.9 (+1 loc = 5), Also Con Sensus (+1 = 5) and NormaL (+3 = 7). JPmarn 13.2 (+1 loc = 5) and Artane2002 13.2 (0 pts loc = 4).

3 pts __ Joe Public 12.9 (0 pts loc = 3), sryanbruen 12.8 (+1 loc = 4), DOCARCH 12.7 (+2 loc = 5), 200motels 12.7 (+1 loc = 4), MrSkinner 12.5 (+1 loc = 4).

2 pts __ Bsal (+1 loc = 3), Mickger844posts 10.8 (+1 loc = 3)

1 pt __ BLIZZARD7 6.7 (0 pts loc = 1)

M.T. Cranium

Update with one week to go ...

IMT was on 6.2, after 24 days, probably now at 6.4 after a rather warm day. This may slip back a little as mean temperatures average about 4 C later this month.

MAX could have edged up (15.8 earlier), see any later reports. (added 0430h _ already noting 16.5 at Casement, Phoenix Park could have been warmer).

MIN has been challenged but as far as I know, not altered from --4.2 C.

PRC is guaranteed to finish no lower than 88% (the current value relative to end of month rather than pro-rated, where it sits about 110%). With the dry outlook it will likely hit 90% as a final value. In the past week the average was only 32% of normal (the southeast almost bone dry).

SUN ... if my earlier estimate was correct (130% to 17th) then it would now be around 120% since this past week had 97% of normal from the ag report.

M.T. Cranium

So it appears that the 16.5 at Casement was the highest reading, will be checking Moorepark for today in the data tomorrow. This was the sort of setup I had in mind with my optimistic forecast of IMT and MAX but it wasn't quite as deep a flow as I needed to see, nor will it persist long enough to pay off. Happy with the partial success of the evolution and should have known better than to go that extreme but we do get two free lunches in this contest. I've had one of mine already.

Hope you are all well, my own health is fine to this point, no particular worries about underlying conditions but as you may know I am past my seventieth birthday which is a bit of a concern -- living in this rather isolated community is good too except that it was a busy ski resort up until last week so we all suspect the virus might be lurking although no reported cases around here yet. The situation seems to be fairly stable in Canada more by luck than design I would have to say, as our government was rather slow to react (in the political system we have, actually it's our provincial government making most of the key decisions but the federal government was very slow to shut down air travel especially from China to whom we seem to be almost a colony in the minds of some of the powers that be at least). Just like yourselves, perversely the weather has turned very pleasant for the past week or two but there's very little to do outside here as for example the gardening season is still weeks away here. Golf courses that were going to open up (in warmer areas than here) are closed for the foreseeable future. I was saying the other day that more people will probably die of boredom than anything else if this goes on a long time. But in my case I have that research to occupy my time, could do endless amounts of work on that (evidently from the forecasts).

Tae laidir

Thanks for sharing MT.
One man's prison is another man's palace.
Keep safe and looking for to hear of the rewards of your research.

M.T. Cranium

Moorepark made 15.6 so not quite up to the new MAX which seems safe now.

The research is a good thing for me in one way, for sure, never run out of things to do as there's endless possible investigations of the large data sets that I have on file here. As you might know if you've read any of the threads about my research, most of what I do uncover is along the lines of faint signals that seem of some statistical significance but aren't large enough signals to make a huge difference in our understanding or ability to forecast beyond the time frame of the computer model guidance (which I would argue will never exceed ten days unless we gain understandings of where energy originates to drive the atmosphere, because of the life cycle of energy-driven systems, approximately 10-14 days at a maximum and sometimes considerably less than that).

Even the best computer with every possible bit of data input cannot be expected to "know" when this energy might materialize and what it might do. This is why the models degrade slowly day by day until they become almost random within two or three weeks. I think answers are out there and I may be on the right track to find them, or at least hand over my research to younger people with the time required to make further advances as this all takes a lot of time. There won't be that one "eureka" moment in our science, I feel, just some process of slow but steady progress -- it will be hard to define the moment where the breakthrough takes place, if we are just adding 1 or 2 per cent of accuracy to long range forecasts every decade for the next two centuries (which is how I expect this might play out) -- plus, we seem to be tinkering with the atmospheric engine by changing its chemistry slightly, so even what we discover might not always be applicable years afterwards.

M.T. Cranium

IMT has finished on 6.4 (6.36 to be more precise).

PRC came in on 90% of normal (quite a fall from where it sat mid-month).

SUN in the last week was quite healthy, with 142% of normal which brings the month out at an estimated 125%.

I will wait for the MS to do any scoring. Not that confident about the SUN being within 10 per cent of this value but we'll see what they have to say about that and the MAX/MIN confirmation (think we're at 16.5, -4.2).

M.T. Cranium

Table of scoring for March 2020


A bit late getting to this, my mind has been partly to mostly cloudy this week ...

Checked into SUN and found my estimate was in fact fairly good but the reality was even higher at 127% of normal. Everything else was as expected in the MS. Final values can be seen in the scoring table.

Scored sunshine a bit leniently as a sort of minimum progression (the scoring interval became 6% rather than 5). Also gave some small scores to the zero Max and Min which were less shameful than the worst cases. In any given case, one or two points, and extended that up to all other scores in the table, since 18/20 was top raw score in each case. The boosted scores have an asterisk. All of these were borderline in terms of qualifying for a boost but I wanted the month to stand some chance of counting in final scores for the best ten of twelve.


FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___Max 17th loc'n _____ TOTALS


Confirmed values ________6.4_16.5_-4.2_080_127 ___ 15.8 _ Phoenix Park



sryanbruen ____________ 25 _ 20*_ 18*_ 15 _ 06 ___ 3 + 1 _______ 88

200motels _____________24 _ 09*_ 17*_ 15 _ 06 ___ 3 + 1 _______ 75


___ NormaL ___________ 21 _ 17*_ 14*_ 08 _ 06 ___ 4 + 3 _______ 73


Mrskinner _____________ 23 _ 17*_ 19*_ 05 _ 04 ___ 3 + 1 _______ 72

Kindred Spirit __________ 23 _ 12*_ 09*_ 15 _ 07 ___ 4 + 1 _______ 71

Artane2002 ____________19 _ 20*_ 06*_ 10 _ 06 ___ 4 + 0 _______ 65

Rikand ________________19 _ 07*_ 10*_ 12 _ 09 ___ 7 + 0 _______ 64

DOCARCH _____________ 23 _ 05*_ 13*_ 09 _ 07 ___ 3 + 2 _______ 62

mickger844posts ________21 _ 10*_ 08*_ 12 _ 06 ___ 2 + 1 _______ 60

M.T. Cranium __________ 10 _ 00 __20*_ 14 _ 10 ___ 6 + 0 _______ 60


___ Con Sensus ________ 22 _ 10*_ 09*_ 07 _ 06 ___ 4 + 1 _______ 59


Adam240610 ___________18 _ 17*_ 09*_ 04 _ 04 ___ 5 + 1 _______ 58

Pauldry _______________ 21 _ 05*_ 11*_ 08 _ 06 ___ 5 + 3 _______ 58

Bsal __________________24 _ 08*_ 10*_ 07 _ 05 ___ 2 + 1 _______ 57

Dasa29 _______________ 21 _ 12*_ 05*_ 05 _ 06 ___ 6 + 0 _______ 55

Dacogawa _____________ 22 _ 10*_ 09*_ 00 _ 06 ___ 5 + 1 _______ 53

john mac ______________23 _ 01*_ 08*_ 07 _ 05 ___ 7 + 1 _______ 52

Jpmarn _______________ 14 _ 04*_ 02*_ 15 _ 10 ___ 4 + 1 _______ 50

Sunflower3 ____________ 17 _ 02*_ 04*_ 12 _ 08 ___ 6 + 1 _______ 50

Tae laidir ______________19 _ 15*_ 02*_ 01 _ 06 ___ 4 + 1 _______ 48

BLIZZARD7 ___ (-3) _____19 _ 19*_ 01*_ 02 _ 08 ___ 1 + 0 __50-3= 47

waterways _____________20 _ 05*_ 01*_ 03 _ 05 ___ 7 + 1 _______ 42

Joe Public _____________ 23 _ 01*_ 06*_ 02 _ 07 ___ 3 + 0 _______ 42

---

(actual forecasts)

M.T. Cranium ___________ 7.9 _ 22.5 _ -4.0 _ 084 _ 125 ____ 16.6 Finner

Jpmarn ________________ 7.5 _ 18.3 _ -2.1 _ 080 _ 130 ____ 13.2 Shannon

Sunflower3 _____________ 7.2 _ 18.5 _ -2.4 _ 090 _ 115 ____ 17.0 Oak Park

Adam240610 ____________7.1 _ 17.0 _ -2.9 _ 113 _ 090 ____ 14.2 Moorepark

Rikand _________________7.0 _ 18.0 _ -3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 16.0 Johnstown castle

Tae laidir _______________7.0 _ 17.2 _ -2.2 _ 121_ 100 ____ 13.9 Moorepark

Artane2002 _____________7.0 _ 16.3 _ -2.6 _ 095 _ 102 ____ 13.2 Valentia

waterways _____________ 6.9 _ 18.2 _ -1.8 _ 117 _ 098 ____ 15.9 Mount Dillon

Pauldry ________________6.8 _ 18.2 _ -3.1 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 14.5 Phoenix Park

Dasa29 ________________6.8 _ 17.5 _ -2.5 _ 110 _ 105 ____ 16.5 Mullingar

___ NormaL ____________ 6.8 _ 17.0 _ -5.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 13.9 (loc'n by climatology)

Dacogawa ______________6.7 _ 17.7_ -2.9 _ 126 _ 101 ____ 14.2 Oak Park

___ Con Sensus _________6.7 _ 17.7 _ -2.9 _ 103 _ 105 ____ 14.0 (see list)

john mac ______________ 6.6 _ 19.3 _ -2.8 _ 104 _ 097 ____ 15.8 Oak Park

Kindred Spirit ___________6.6 _ 17.5 _ -2.9 _ 080 _ 110 ____ 14.0 Oak Park

DOCARCH _____________ 6.6 _ 14.8 _ -3.3 _ 098 _ 106 ____ 12.7 Casement

Bsal __________________ 6.5 _ 17.9 _ -3.0 _ 103 _ 099 ____ 11.0 Oak Park

sryanbruen ____________ 6.4 _ 16.3 _ -3.8 _ 080 _ 105 ____ 12.8 Shannon

200motels _____________ 6.3 _ 17.8 _ -3.7 _ 081 _ 101 ____ 12.7 Shannon

Joe Public ______________6.2 _ 19.3 _ -5.8 _ 120 _ 110 ____ 12.9 Belmullet

Mrskinner ______________6.2 _ 16.0 _ -3.9 _ 110 _ 090 ____ 12.5 Valentia

mickger844posts ________6.0 _ 15.3 _ -2.8 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 10.8 Oak Park

BLIZZARD7 ___ (-3) _____5.8 _ 16.8 _ -6.3 _ 120 _ 115 _____ 6.7 Valentia

___________________________________________________________________


Congrats to sryanbruen for nailing this month, also good efforts from 200motels, Mrskinner and Kindred Spirit.

Annual scoring update to follow.

M.T. Cranium

Updated annual scoring Jan to Mar 2020


FORECASTER ________ Jan _Feb _Mar ___ TOTAL


Mrskinner ___________ 86 _ 54 _ 72 ____ 212

Kindred Spirit ________ 61 _ 63 _ 71 ____ 195

sryanbruen __________ 47 _ 58 _ 88 ____ 193


___ NormaL _________ 70 _ 50 _ 73 ____ 193

___ Con Sensus ______ 70 _ 62 _ 59 ____ 191


Dacogawa ___________73 _ 64 _ 53 ____ 190

M.T. Cranium ________ 69 _ 59 _ 60 ____ 188

Jpmarn _____________ 86 _ 51 _ 50 ____ 187

Artane2002 __________56 _ 63 _ 65 ____ 184

DOCARCH ___________58 _ 61 _ 62 ____ 181

Sunflower3 __________ 68 _ 60 _ 50 ____ 178

mickger844posts ______55 _ 63 _ 60 ____ 178

Joe Public ___________ 70 _ 65 _ 42 ____ 177

Dasa29 _____________ 48 _ 70 _ 55 ____ 173

Bsal ________________62 _ 54 _ 57 ____ 173

Rikand ______________68 _ 38 _ 64 ____ 170

Tae laidir ____________67 _ 49 _ 48 ____ 164

john mac ____________64 _ 46 _ 52 ____ 162

Adam240610 ________ 62 _ 38 _ 58 ____ 158

Pauldry _____________63 _ 36 _ 58 _____157

BLIZZARD7 __________66 _ 36 _ 47 ____ 149

200motels __________ 47 _ --- _ 75 _____122

waterways __________ --- _ 54 _ 42 _____ 96


JCXBXC ____________ 58 _ --- _ --- _____ 58

WesternStorm _______ 54 _ --- _ --- _____ 54

esposito ____________49 _ --- _ --- _____ 49

=================================================

Mrskinner continues to lead and sryanbruen made a big move up the table. Will start to post best of type of scoring in May, right now your chances are pretty good in all cases since you could easily be replacing at least one of these scores.