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March 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 27-02-2020 10:17am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,201 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    The usual questions and a bonus ...

    1. IMT for five locations (Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon) ... the 1981-2010 normal value is 6.8 C.

    2. MAX for all 25 locations that report daily weather data on met.ie website.

    3. MIN for all 25 locations also.

    4. PRC for 11 locations (the five listed in (1) above plus Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork, Valentia) given as a percentage of normal.

    5. SUN for 6 locations (Casement, Dublin, Belmullet, Shannon, Cork, Valentia) given as a percentage of normal.

    6. BONUS _ On the 17th, what will be the highest temperature in Ireland, and where will it occur? (seven points for temperature, three for location with partial points for close but not exact). Superbonus available.

    Deadline as always 0300h 1st (Sunday) with one point deducted for any portion of four hours late up to 36h, thereafter one point per hour.


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,557 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen _____ 6.4 _ 16.3 _ -3.8 _ 80 _ 105 _ 12.8 Shannon Apt

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,714 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal _____ 6.5 _ 17.9 _ -3.0 _ 103 _ 99 _ 11.0 Oak Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels_____ 6.3_ 17.8_ -3.7_ 81_ 101_ 12.7 Shannon

    Completely forgot about February.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,996 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac _____ 6.6 _ 19.3 _ -2.8 _ 104 _ 97 _ 15.8 oak park


  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 _____ 6.8 _ 17.5 _ -2.5 _ 110 _ 105 _ 16.5 mullingar


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  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3 _____ 7.2 _ 18.5 _ -2.4 _ 90 _ 115 _ 17 Oak Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,860 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002 _____ 7.0 _ 16.3 _ -2.6 _ 95 _ 102 _ 13.2 Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn _____ 7.5 _ 18.3 _ -2.1 _ 80 _ 130 _ 13.2 Shannon


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,564 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ___ 7.0 ___ 18.0 ___ -3.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 16.0 johnstown castle


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public _____ 6.2 _ 19.3 _ -5.8 _ 120 _ 110 _ 12.9 Belmullet


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry_____ 6.8_ 18.2 _ -3.1 _ 100_ 100_ 14.5c Pheonix Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir_____ 7.0 _ 17.2 _ -2.2 _ 121_ 100 _ 13.9 Moore Park


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,111 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH _____ 6.6 _ 14.8 _ -3.3 _ 98 _ 106 _ 12.7 Casement


  • Registered Users Posts: 351 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways _____ 6.9 _ 18.2 _ -1.8 _ 117_ 098_ 18.9 Mount Dillon


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,773 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa_____ 6.7_ 17.7_ -2.9_ 126_ 101_ 14.2c Oak Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 6.6 ___ 17.5 ___ -2.9 ___ 80 ___ 110 ___ 14.0 Oak Park.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts_____ 6.0 _ 15.3 _ -2.8 _ 90 _ 105 _ 10.8 Oak Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Mrskinner_____6.2_____16°_____-3.9°_____110_____90_____12.5° Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 748 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    Adam240610__ 7.1__17.0__-2.9__113__90 __14 .2-Moorepark


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,201 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    MTC _____ 7.9 __ 22.5 __ -4.0 __ 084 __ 125 ___ 16.6 Finner

    NormaL will be set in the table of entries


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  • Registered Users Posts: 351 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways wrote: »
    waterways _____ 6.9 _ 18.2 _ -1.8 _ 117_ 098_ 18.9 Mount Dillon


    Oops, there is a typo, should have been 15.9


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7_____ 5.8 __ 16.8 __ -6.3 __ 120 __ 115 ___ 6.7c Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,564 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    waterways wrote: »
    Oops, there is a typo, should have been 15.9

    I was wondering how your monthly max was 18.2 but paddy's day was going to top it


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,201 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for March 2020


    FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 17th loc'n


    M.T. Cranium ___________ 7.9 _ 22.5 _ -4.0 _ 084 _ 125 ____ 16.6 Finner

    Jpmarn ________________ 7.5 _ 18.3 _ -2.1 _ 080 _ 130 ____ 13.2 Shannon

    Sunflower3 _____________ 7.2 _ 18.5 _ -2.4 _ 090 _ 115 ____ 17.0 Oak Park

    Adam240610 ____________7.1 _ 17.0 _ -2.9 _ 113 _ 090 ____ 14.2 Moorepark

    Rikand _________________7.0 _ 18.0 _ -3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 16.0 Johnstown castle

    Tae laidir _______________7.0 _ 17.2 _ -2.2 _ 121_ 100 ____ 13.9 Moorepark

    Artane2002 _____________7.0 _ 16.3 _ -2.6 _ 095 _ 102 ____ 13.2 Valentia

    waterways _____________ 6.9 _ 18.2 _ -1.8 _ 117 _ 098 ____ 15.9 Mount Dillon

    Pauldry ________________6.8 _ 18.2 _ -3.1 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 14.5 Phoenix Park

    Dasa29 ________________6.8 _ 17.5 _ -2.5 _ 110 _ 105 ____ 16.5 Mullingar

    ___ NormaL ____________ 6.8 _ 17.0 _ -5.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 13.9 (loc'n by climatology)

    Dacogawa ______________6.7 _ 17.7_ -2.9 _ 126 _ 101 ____ 14.2 Oak Park

    ___ Con Sensus _________6.7 _ 17.7 _ -2.9 _ 103 _ 105 ____ 14.0 (see list)

    john mac ______________ 6.6 _ 19.3 _ -2.8 _ 104 _ 097 ____ 15.8 Oak Park

    Kindred Spirit ___________6.6 _ 17.5 _ -2.9 _ 080 _ 110 ____ 14.0 Oak Park

    DOCARCH _____________ 6.6 _ 14.8 _ -3.3 _ 098 _ 106 ____ 12.7 Casement

    Bsal __________________ 6.5 _ 17.9 _ -3.0 _ 103 _ 099 ____ 11.0 Oak Park

    sryanbruen ____________ 6.4 _ 16.3 _ -3.8 _ 080 _ 105 ____ 12.8 Shannon

    200motels _____________ 6.3 _ 17.8 _ -3.7 _ 081 _ 101 ____ 12.7 Shannon

    Joe Public ______________6.2 _ 19.3 _ -5.8 _ 120 _ 110 ____ 12.9 Belmullet

    Mrskinner ______________6.2 _ 16.0 _ -3.9 _ 110 _ 090 ____ 12.5 Valentia

    mickger844posts ________6.0 _ 15.3 _ -2.8 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 10.8 Oak Park

    BLIZZARD7 ___ (-3) _____5.8 _ 16.8 _ -6.3 _ 120 _ 115 _____ 6.7 Valentia

    ___________________________________________________________________

    NormaL will score by climatology for location of max on 17th.

    Con Sensus will score based on numbers of forecasts ...

    _ 3 pts if Oak Park (6 picks),

    _ 2 pts if Shannon (3 picks), Valentia (3 picks) or Moorepark (2 picks)

    _ 1 pt if Finner, Belmullet, Casement, Johnstown Castle, Mountdillon, Phoenix Park, Mullingar (1 pick each)

    _ 0 pts if any other location wins (incl Dublin, Dunsany, Newport, Claremorris, Athenry, Markree, Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Mace Head, Gurteen, Cork, Sherkin Is, Roche's Point, Knock)

    Wonder if Knock has ever been the warmest place in Ireland?

    Your location scoring will be 3/3 if you're right, 2/3 if the correct pick is closer to your location than any other location, and 1/3 if the correct pick is in the same province as your pick.

    ______________________________________________

    The consensus of our 21 forecasts is very close to average for March. We seem to have about an equal split between those who suspect a turn to milder and drier (and therefore sunnier in most cases), or those who feel it could turn a bit cooler than average for a change, and these tend to favour wet and cloudy too.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,996 ✭✭✭ John mac


    Wonder if Knock has ever been the warmest place in Ireland?
    1995 ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Moore Park - 2.9 yesterday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,714 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    -3.9 Dublin airport this morning.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,201 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Also saw -4 at Dunsany at 06h when preparing the forecast.

    Check both tomorrow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    MIN -4.2°C recorded at Dusany on the 5th.

    I noticed a forecast of 22.5°C as a MAX in this months contest. If he is correct it would break the Max temperature record for March.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,557 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Jpmarn wrote: »
    MIN -4.2°C recorded at Dusany on the 5th.

    I noticed a forecast of 22.5°C as a MAX in this months contest. If he is correct it would break the Max temperature record for March.

    It wouldn't, the record is 23.6C from March 1965 at Trinity College.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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