Cheltenham punting strategies

carq

Will try to be a bit smarter this year.
Have cut down a lot on ante post punting, or at least reduced it to NRNB only.

Previously i bet on nearly every race.
Looking at previous 3 years Tuesday was always in profit, wednesday up 1 year , down 2 years, thursday and friday fare the worst, especially friday.

Think this year i will bet heavier on the graded races, smaller stakes on the handicaps, reduce overall punting on friday (Bar the gold cup).

Looking at history i don't think any multiple (treble or higher worked out for me) so will knock them on the head also.

What are your strategies this year?

I'm backing anything Rachael Blackmore is riding.

carq

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm backing anything Rachael Blackmore is riding.

if you did that last year you would surely have huge profit with the 50/1 winner on the friday! might not be a bad play.
Any idea what her book of rides are looking like ?

Brock Turnpike

My strategy is to bet small and expect to lose. Same as every year.

IAMAMORON

I will have 3 or 4 dirty great big whopper bets on horses that I think are good value and obviously have a good chance of winning. If they win I am into nice "summer" changing money, it will definitely get me to Portugal for golf and extras for a week. I can afford to lose this money, I stash for the festivals.

I will stick to fivers and tenners for the handicaps, even if you have a tip for these races every horse is flat out and trying. In fact anyone that tells you a "tip" for a handicap at the festival is being a smartass.

Usually anywhere between a score and fifties for the graded races. Depends what I fancy. For example if I can't find a winner in one particular race I will lash a fiver on something and just enjoy it.

I will do a few sexy yankees and super yankees also.

I always end up spending the rest of my cash on other shight that no one needs but loves. I will spare you all the specifics. I end up wasting all the rest.

chancer007

where there is a short fav, always look in the w/o markets
I has sam spinner 20/w w/o Paisley park last year
ur also getting e/w 1st 3 in the w/o market

Croll

Taking advantage of the special offers such as sky money back in cash on first race up to €20 if your horse loses , also usually have one bigger stake double or treble to make some money , tiger paisley park and maybe throw in a plus tard too

IAMAMORON

Has anyone ever got lucky with a "free bet" token from the paper?

Any stories of turning a free bet fiver into a few grand?

Be careful... Fannywank might be on the prowl.

I'm gonna stick with my break-even strategy

piplip87

Backed of the ante post bets too. Sure it's great value when you get a winner but have been stung a few times in the last few years.

For the handicaps that I fancy I'll have a limit of 20 quid per race, sometimes it's 20 on one or 10 on one and 5er ew on something bigger.

I do love small stake lucky 15s though. 25c ew each day three second or third favourites and one outsider I fancy.

Most importantly it's four days off work, the woman knows it's my four days per year, pints and good company all week

Earendil

piplip87 wrote: »

Backed of the ante post bets too. Sure it's great value when you get a winner but have been stung a few times in the last few years.

For the handicaps that I fancy I'll have a limit of 20 quid per race, sometimes it's 20 on one or 10 on one and 5er ew on something bigger.

I do love small stake lucky 15s though. 25c ew each day three second or third favourites and one outsider I fancy.

Most importantly it's four days off work, the woman knows it's my four days per year, pints and good company all week

Your mam? :pac:

Pogue eile

It's like all betting strategies really, have a set stake plan and dont increase because you are up or worse still chasing losses, It's why I like to put all my bets on that morning rather that going from race to race which can lead to bad bank roll manamegment.

Spread your bets over a number of bookies, Tuesday especially there will be all sorts of offers available, take them all!

I think in Cheltenham more than anywhere else always give a second look to a horse with a big C beside it on the race card, even moreso if it was at the festival itself, Festival form stands up every year regardless of what has happened in the interim.

carq

carq wrote: »

if you did that last year you would surely have huge profit with the 50/1 winner on the friday! might not be a bad play.
Any idea what her book of rides are looking like ?

You'd imagine it'll be the usual certs;

Honeysuckle
Notebook
A Plus Tard
Monalee

Then possibly Petit Mouchoir, Aspire Tower, Chris's Dream (hopefully) but I have no idea what the story is with any of these and Cheltenham.

And they're just the obvious sorta names. Whatever happens, she'll be on plenty of good horses.

Slattsy

Just back ante post ****ing winners. Its quite simple! Lol

laguacamaya

These days I only back at the big festivals. Furthermore, I only bet if there's a "moneyback offer" or "extra place" etc...Saying that, I nearly always have 2 chunky antepost bets... Honeysuckle and Aspire Tower are the 2 chosen wans this genius picked pre Punchestown ;-)

piplip87

Earendil wrote: »

Your mam? :pac:

I wish was so much easier to hide a few Bob for Cheltenham when living at home

Andrew00

Why do u lads tell the wife at Cheltenham? Like how do you hide money from her

RivetingRoger

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I'm backing anything Rachael Blackmore is riding.

Brian Hayes

IAMAMORON

Andrew00 wrote: »

Why do u lads tell the wife at Cheltenham? Like how do you hide money from her

Never tell her what you win for starters. Ever.

If you win a few bob you will get a beating for not getting her something nice and if you lose she will give you a guilt trip over your kids or some other crap.

You don't have to be mean if you win a nice few bob. If you want to treat your other half just lie and say you got a bonus in work or something similar. A friend paid you back a loan, blah blah, you will get there. Never let them know how much you win.

There are loads of places around your gaff where she won't go snooting. I don't know your mrs but they usually don't pry around the shed, lash your stash under a load of rusty nails or something else disgusting that she will turn her nose up at. Your golf bag works also, most wives can't stand the sport or anything to do with it, stash deep in the bottom with all the old dirty crappy tees etc. Don't be lazy and throw it in a sock in your drawer, they don't always go snooting but when they do they have the tenacity of a dog sniffing out a bone. They will find your wad of fifties and more than likely start creaming it slowly. If they don't spend it they will either monitor it weekly or confront you. Either way your phucked. Trust me, put it somewhere she won't go. Tell her you saw foxes or rats out there and that it is worrying you.

Damage limitation is key. You know what they are capable of, you don't need me to tell you.

Andrew00

It's when you lose a few quid that's the problem. When you're down a few ton or more after the festival is over and she comes looking for money for the shopping or car insurance

NaiveMelodies

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Never tell her what you win for starters. Ever.

If you win a few bob you will get a beating for not getting her something nice and if you lose she will give you a guilt trip over your kids or some other crap.

You don't have to be mean if you win a nice few bob. If you want to treat your other half just lie and say you got a bonus in work or something similar. A friend paid you back a loan, blah blah, you will get there. Never let them know how much you win.

There are loads of places around your gaff where she won't go snooting. I don't know your mrs but they usually don't pry around the shed, lash your stash under a load of rusty nails or something else disgusting that she will turn her nose up at. Your golf bag works also, most wives can't stand the sport or anything to do with it, stash deep in the bottom with all the old dirty crappy tees etc. Don't be lazy and throw it in a sock in your drawer, they don't always go snooting but when they do they have the tenacity of a dog sniffing out a bone. They will find your wad of fifties and more than likely start creaming it slowly. If they don't spend it they will either monitor it weekly or confront you. Either way your phucked. Trust me, put it somewhere she won't go. Tell her you saw foxes or rats out there and that it is worrying you.

Damage limitation is key. You know what they are capable of, you don't need me to tell you.

Your ability to talk so much bollix so much of the time is simply astounding.

IAMAMORON

Andrew00 wrote: »

It's when you lose a few quid that's the problem. When you're down a few ton or more after the festival is over and she comes looking for money for the shopping or car insurance

Don't go there. You should only be blowing money she has no idea you have. It is far easier that way.

Some amateurs who are newly married or even in the first few years of marriage make the chronic mistake of convincing themselves that their wives don't monitor their wages and spending habits. This is a textbook error. They will snoot everywhere until they get to the bottom of it. She will find a payslip or check you bank etc. They all do, in fact she was at this long before she walked down any aisle, they want to know what they can expect ( ballpark) long before they tie the knot. Some fools loosen up and think that " sharing" financial information will strengthen their relationship... this is deluded madness and you are just setting yourself up for a hiding further down the road. Be stringent. They will know exactly how much money you are getting paid and they will also have a fair idea what you are blowing it on. Any other messing you get up to has to come out of your stash, believe.

Every husband on the planet needs a stash.

The Mig

Sounds like your missus is a bit of a weapon Moron. No offence!

Earendil

The Mig wrote: »

Sounds like your missus is a bit of a weapon Moron. No offence!

I was reading it mouth open thinking : once all the bills are paid, kids looked after, holidays booked etc....she couldn’t give a fcuk what I do with my money!

Slattsy

Earendil wrote: »

I was reading it mouth open thinking : once all the bills are paid, kids looked after, holidays booked etc....she couldn’t give a fcuk what I do with my money!

Same.

RivetingRoger

Mine took my savings box and hid the fu*king thing to teach me a lesson!!!
She will give it back once I have proven my credentials as a family man first and a gambler second!

Tis crammed with notes and bets........

IAMAMORON

Don't get me wrong, all wives are different, but deep down they carry the same fundamental traits.

Stash complacency can lead to serious wastage down the line. I have seen entire grand national winnings getting blown on a set of pink carnation with evergreen background long window curtains for the bedroom.... hundreds and thousands spent on rubbish like oak wood worktop kitchen conversions or a new fan cooker. I have seen entire yankees splashed on € 400 pair of manolo blahnik high heels which get worn once to a wedding and then remain sitting in the back of a wardrobe for years. When your wives get going they are capable of anything and they are well able to cut loose on buying shight with your winnings, they just see free money, phucking animals.

Don't make the mistake of thinking they are not all capable of it, I know what I am talking about. They are money eating machines, worse than any gambling habit you think you have.

The Mig

Earendil wrote: »

I was reading it mouth open thinking : once all the bills are paid, kids looked after, holidays booked etc....she couldn’t give a fcuk what I do with my money!

Slattsy wrote: »

Same.

110%. Must be a strong oul thumb the Moron is under bleeding money stasher

piplip87

Andrew00 wrote: »

Why do u lads tell the wife at Cheltenham? Like how do you hide money from her

That's why the ante post is so popular. It's not about value it's about getting small sums Hiden from the other half before the festival.

Ah I've a wee post office savings account. I throw a few quid into whenever I have a few winners. It builds up nicely for emergencies or Cheltenham.

Sure look 60 quid a day keeps me going in the bookies and another 60 quid for the pub two of the days (can't do the whole four days anymore.) Sure that's 10 pints and and a Kebab. Sure whatever you win can be invested when she joins us on the Friday, and picks more winners than we have had all week because the horse looks nice or the name reminds her of am ex or aomething

TheMilkyPirate

Andrew00 wrote: »

Why do u lads tell the wife at Cheltenham? Like how do you hide money from her

I don't tell her anything ffs she wouldn't care anyway. You lot either have terrible money management skills or your missus are completely bonkers.

RivetingRoger

Your best bet is have as many wagers done as you can before it ever starts
That way then it looks like you are very casual about it all when you are throwing a tenner here and a fiver there on the 20/1's in the Ultima and the Brown.....
Course secretly when you go to the loo for a tom tit you are inside in the cubicle thumping the air like a mad yoke cos you had nearly 200 quid on Abacadabras at 4/1 - 11/2 for months now and he has just won the Supreme by a lap!!!

RivetingRoger

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

I don't tell her anything ffs she wouldn't care anyway. You lot either have terrible money management skills or your missus are completely bonkers.

Listen to Paschal O'Donohue over here ffs

TheMilkyPirate

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Listen to Paschal O'Donohue over here ffs

Enjoy being whipped by your missus

RivetingRoger

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Enjoy being whipped by your missus

You only wish your missus would whip you, ya dirty eejit

tayto lover

Horses for courses.
I back the horses that ran well or won there before.
I also decrease my normal bet on races that have been won by complete outsiders the previous few years.

TheMilkyPirate

RivetingRoger wrote: »

You only wish your missus would whip you, ya dirty eejit

You're getting very tetchy over this Roger. Name calling and everything, she must have quite the hold over ye

BoldReason

The only strategy is not to change your overall strategy just because it is Cheltenham. Usually it is no different to a big Saturday card.
Will tend to do bigger bets in the handicaps as feel i can find a greater edge in these. Find the graded races are more priced very accurate come the day.
Mostly most of my punting is on the same week or morning of the race due to a combination of the ante post prices being shocking or not being able to have more than a score with most bookmakers more hassle than it is worth at this stage.

Pogue eile

BoldReason wrote: »

The only strategy is not to change your overall strategy just because it is Cheltenham. Usually it is no different to a big Saturday card.
Will tend to do bigger bets in the handicaps as feel i can find a greater edge in these. Find the graded races are more priced very accurate come the day.
Mostly most of my punting is on the same week or morning of the race due to a combination of the ante post prices being shocking or not being able to have more than a score with most bookmakers more hassle than it is worth at this stage.

Moron is going to do his nut!!

JohnnyFlash

Ignore the handicaps and lump in on the Irish ‘bankers’ on the Tuesday and Wednesday.

longshotvalue

BoldReason wrote: »

The only strategy is not to change your overall strategy just because it is Cheltenham. Usually it is no different to a big Saturday card.
Will tend to do bigger bets in the handicaps as feel i can find a greater edge in these. Find the graded races are more priced very accurate come the day.
Mostly most of my punting is on the same week or morning of the race due to a combination of the ante post prices being shocking or not being able to have more than a score with most bookmakers more hassle than it is worth at this stage.

Same for me. Love the handicaps.

lemush

BoldReason wrote: »

The only strategy is not to change your overall strategy just because it is Cheltenham.

100% this.

MaxBet

BoldReason wrote: »

The only strategy is not to change your overall strategy just because it is Cheltenham. Usually it is no different to a big Saturday card.
Will tend to do bigger bets in the handicaps as feel i can find a greater edge in these. Find the graded races are more priced very accurate come the day.
Mostly most of my punting is on the same week or morning of the race due to a combination of the ante post prices being shocking or not being able to have more than a score with most bookmakers more hassle than it is worth at this stage.

That’s me in a nutshell

IAMAMORON

Pogue eile wrote: »

Moron is going to do his nut!!

aidankkk wrote: »

Same for me. Love the handicaps.

Handicaps are fine and for sure you will get some lovely value if you can find the winner. Don't get me wrong I love nothing better than deciphering a 27 runner handicap chase, I love analysing horses and stats etc, it is half the game for me.

But blowing your big bet on a 30 runner clusterphuck is complete and utter madness, especially at the festival where they are all trying. It can be dangerous to your mental health.

For starters you won't know the runners in the Grand Annual until around midday on Wednesday. With any luck you will be nursing your first hangover of the week after landing a touch the day before. It will be less than 2 hours till the Ballymore is off. What do you be doing with yourself?

If you do take the initiative of having a look at Friday's card you will be left staring at a page riddled with jockey booking errors and misrepresented ground, the weights will have your head turning sideways. That is before you manage to start building a shortlist. By the time the race starts on Friday you will have seen dramatic price fluctuations from two days previous. You can be guaranteed that the leading trainer's horses will have halved in price, they mightn't even be on your shortlist.

After all that the race ends up being won by a graded horse that has spent the last 3 years getting the neck pulled off him in class 3 handicaps or worse. You will turn around after the race and question why you didn't see it, in fact more often then not the phucker was on your shortlist until you removed it last minute because you convinced yourself it simply wasn't good enough, even though it's price had been slowly collapsing all week.

Save yourself the hassle and find a name you like and have a few fivers ew.

longshotvalue

If you don't have your biggest bets on the part your best at there is something wrong. That said i don't bet big.



Handicaps at Cheltenham just have a better than average shot at getting a big priced winners, mainly because of factors that in the last few years a few too many have cottoned onto.


Despite what is said about Ante-Post betting , there is still a few bets to be had every year when decent bookies go nrnb, as the (if he goes there factor is not always applied enough)

Gringo180

Just listen to me and back Labaik :pac:

carq

Gringo180 wrote: »

Just listen to me and back Labaik :pac:

Any sly ones this year!?

Andrew00

Andrew00 wrote: »

Why do u lads tell the wife at Cheltenham? Like how do you hide money from her

Jaysis.
Do only men bet?
And why do you need to hide the fact that you bet?
Thunk you have more issues here......

Francie Barrett

Don't back anything antepost unless it's NRNB.

If you are going to back antepost NRNB, then back your horse as soon as the market does go NRNB, as I find prices generally only contract after that.

Keep an eye out for the enhanced specials that happen in the weeks before Cheltenham if you're happy enough to bet in 10's or 20's.

If your horse is a short priced favourite, then often it pays to back early morning the day it runs (some places will often make an 8/11 an even money price for small money for a short period).

It pays to have multiple accounts to take advantage of extra places.

It's never easy to make money on horses, but if you're on the ball and disciplined, Cheltenham offers the chance to at least even the tables a little with the bookie.

stretchaq

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Don't back anything antepost unless it's NRNB.

If you are going to back antepost NRNB, then back your horse as soon as the market does go NRNB, as I find prices generally only contract after that.

Keep an eye out for the enhanced specials that happen in the weeks before Cheltenham if you're happy enough to bet in 10's or 20's.

If your horse is a short priced favourite, then often it pays to back early morning the day it runs (some places will often make an 8/11 an even money price for small money for a short period).

It pays to have multiple accounts to take advantage of extra places.

It's never easy to make money on horses, but if you're on the ball and disciplined, Cheltenham offers the chance to at least even the tables a little with the bookie.

I really disagree with not betting ante post if a horse is the right price back it, I have appreciated it at 14s and itchy feet at 20s for this year they more than make up for some stupid ones I have that won’t happen, defi for Ryanair still raging on that but couldn’t turn down 7s

BumperD

Think if anyone is really being honest here, the AP markets died years ago unless you have inside information. You will get a host of the usual links to prior wins but the losers will never get posted. People get a little sensitive about this so the conversation will get murdered unfortunately.

NRNB still have value On occasion without lining the bookies pockets if you’re horse doesn’t run

realdanbreen

Apart from a few antepost and small multiples done in advance anyone betting decent sized money before the morning of the race without being certain of one of the most important factors- the going- is not really regarded as a serious betting man.