What will the numbers be after next election

Bass Reeves

For a bit of crack and to see how good our pundits are I have started this thread so that lads can hazzard an opinion on party numbers after next election so here goes. This is my guess at the moment but will update it after I see final exit poll.

FF45-48.....46 seats
FG 30-37....35 seats
SF 35-40.....36 seats
Greens 10-14....12 seats but steam going out of there campaign
Lab 5 seats but improving
Social democrats 3 seats
Solidarity 5 seats but may benefit hugely from SF lack of candidates
Aontu 3 seats against benefit from SF lack of candidates
Independent's 15 seats may not reach this with a numbers of high profile independent's gone such as Claire Daly and Mick Wallace to Europe, and other that were in government with FG not standing or tainted by there presence

_Brian

Bass Reeves wrote: »

For a bit of crack and to see how good our pundits are I have started this thread so that lads can hazzard an opinion on party numbers after next election so here goes. This is my guess at the moment but will update it after I see final exit poll.

FF45-48.....46 seats
FG 30-37....35 seats
SF 35-40.....36 seats
Greens 10-14....12 seats but steam going out of there campaign
Lab 5 seats but improving
Social democrats 3 seats
Solidarity 5 seats but may benefit hugely from SF lack of candidates
Aontu 3 seats against benefit from SF lack of candidates
Independent's 15 seats may not reach this with a numbers of high profile independent's gone such as Claire Daly and Mick Wallace to Europe, and other that were in government with FG not standing or tainted by there presence

I think your bang on the e money for the greens.
I’d expect 5-6 less for SF and FF/FG closer.

alps

FF 55
FG 36
SF 25
LAB 7
GRN 11

FF/SF comfy with few Inds in tow

Mac Taylor

With 158 seats and 80 to make a majority, it’s hard to see anything but a hung dail with maybe a reverse of the current FG/FF deal, as bad as the 2 traditionalist big parties are.....what will it be like with Sinn Fein and the greens. I have to laugh when pushed on who or what is going to pay for everything......‘the big lad’ is the standard response. But who is the proverbial big lad, add in a wealth tax on property including land. I’ve no issue in fairness and if I thought increasing tax would improve things then fair enough but I do have an issue with free this and free that, if it’s free it has no value....rant over.

amacca

Mac Taylor wrote: »

but I do have an issue with free this and free that, if it’s free it has no value....rant over.

Agreed...but that goes for all sectors/levels of society

no free money in the form overly generous tax breaks for the big boys just as much as no free money for lads sitting on their hole dealing drugs as a nixer etc

TL17

Think FF will be close to 60 and FG will drop to low 30s.FF lab Greens to govern wit few Ind

FF 58
FG 33
SF 28
LAB 9
GRN 7
PBP 5
SOC DEMS 4
Aontu 2
IND 12

Bullocks

I'm no expert but I wonder when we all get into the box will we still keep FG pretty high up the ballot papers so they might still beat FF on seats if not by much.

Panch18

Bass Reeves wrote: »

For a bit of crack and to see how good our pundits are I have started this thread so that lads can hazzard an opinion on party numbers after next election so here goes. This is my guess at the moment but will update it after I see final exit poll.

FF45-48.....46 seats
FG 30-37....35 seats
SF 35-40.....36 seats
Greens 10-14....12 seats but steam going out of there campaign
Lab 5 seats but improving
Social democrats 3 seats
Solidarity 5 seats but may benefit hugely from SF lack of candidates
Aontu 3 seats against benefit from SF lack of candidates
Independent's 15 seats may not reach this with a numbers of high profile independent's gone such as Claire Daly and Mick Wallace to Europe, and other that were in government with FG not standing or tainted by there presence

Hoping and praying that SF won't get 36 seats from 42 candidates. 26 is more than i could stomach from that shower

visatorro

Cant see aontu getting 3 seats. Peader Toibin will do well to hold onto his seat imv.

Timmaay

Was it the 92 election that Labour had 33 seats? Could you image telling someone back then, well come 2020 we'll be looking at Labour all but wiped off the map, the Shinners possibly ahead of FG, and greens with a dozen ha.

Bass Reeves

Bullocks wrote: »

I'm no expert but I wonder when we all get into the box will we still keep FG pretty high up the ballot papers so they might still beat FF on seats if not by much.

While you and I might ten of thousands out there will not. I will not be giving my seconf preference to the second FG candidate. People forget was it 2002 where FG nearly got wiped out

Panch18 wrote: »

Hoping and praying that SF won't get 36 seats from 42 candidates. 26 is more than i could stomach from that shower

The PR system really rewards you when you hit 18-20% this is a virtual quota in a 3 seater. SF are at 25% this will elect candidates that you never heard of before if it is translated into votes the day of the election. SF started poorly but have momentum now. There biggest problem is they have not got enough candidates in the field

visatorro wrote: »

Cant see aontu getting 3 seats. Peader Toibin will do well to hold onto his seat imv.

Normally I would say no, but with SF at 25% I expect that Solidarity and Aontu to pick up seats because of that. SF will transfer strongly to Solidarity and I expect to Aontu too

Timmaay wrote: »

Was it the 92 election that Labour had 33 seats? Could you image telling someone back then, well come 2020 we'll be looking at Labour all but wiped off the map, the Shinners possibly ahead of FG, and greens with a dozen ha.

FG and SF will have the opposite problems SF will have too few candidates in 42 just like Labour in 1992 and 2011 and FG might like 2002 have too many. What may save FG is that FF are not up in the mid 30's in the polls. If the independent and smaller parties were not there FG would be looking at the mid 20's seats wise.

bogman_bass

visatorro wrote: »

Cant see aontu getting 3 seats. Peader Toibin will do well to hold onto his seat imv.

Ah he will. If you win Navan you win Meath West and he is still popular there.
His sister hasn’t a hope.
A possibility of a second seat in Cavan but I doubt it.

blue5000

You'll have to revise those seat numbers downwards by 5 seats as Tipp election is postponed for a month. Looks like we might have 2 SF candidates, 2 independents and 1 FF here.

It could end up like Spain, no one able to put a gov together and back to vote again in June.

patsy_mccabe

I'm amazed at the number of people in their early 40's or so who support Sinn Fein. Early 50's and up and the support is virtually zero.
I worry what they will do if they get into power and I am a strong republican at heart. :mad:

Anto_Meath

Pasty I would agree with you, but I don't know if they really want to get into power. There is no way they could do what they are saying, Sinn Fein are good a sound bits and influencing social media (say something they dislike and a swarm of them jump on you) put in reality their policies don't add up. I admire SF for some of what they had to do in the North but I admire the SDLP more. I cant see anything only a hung Dail and all back to the polls in 6 months.

Rossie11

Odds of a 2nd election in 2020 is 9/1
That is tempting based on the numbers this election is going to throw up.
SF would be happy with it as well as they could run more candidates in hope of been the largest party in terms of seats next time out

J.O. Farmer

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

I'm amazed at the number of people in their early 40's or so who support Sinn Fein. Early 50's and up and the support is virtually zero.
I worry what they will do if they get into power and I am a strong republican at heart. :mad:

People in their early 40s now got most screwed in 2008. They were late 20s early 30s buying their homes, starting families.

They look at FF/FG and see the only difference is civil war politics. Most of the Labour party were probably there before they were old enough to vote and also were part of the 2011 FG government. This leaves Sinn Fein as the only half viable alternative.

Early 50s bought their houses and started families before the boom and got the benefits. They're not so disaffected with the established parties.

Bass Reeves

Rossie11 wrote: »

Odds of a 2nd election in 2020 is 9/1
That is tempting based on the numbers this election is going to throw up.
SF would be happy with it as well as they could run more candidates in hope of been the largest party in terms of seats next time out

I think SF would prefer a government to last 1-3 years and then fall apart. This would give it time to redesign there policies towards being much more pragmatic. As well by the looks of it it will have the numbers to claim that it is the main opposition.

patsy_mccabe

J.O. Farmer wrote: »

People in their early 40s now got most screwed in 2008. They were late 20s early 30s buying their homes, starting families.

They look at FF/FG and see the only difference is civil war politics. Most of the Labour party were probably there before they were old enough to vote and also were part of the 2011 FG government. This leaves Sinn Fein as the only half viable alternative.

Early 50s bought their houses and started families before the boom and got the benefits. They're not so disaffected with the established parties.

Ya, good point. I always thought it had more to do with not being old enough to remember The Troubles.

alps

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I think SF would prefer a government to last 1-3 years and then fall apart. This would give it time to redesign there policies towards being much more pragmatic. As well by the looks of it it will have the numbers to claim that it is the main opposition.

The best outcome for SF would be for FG to prop a FF government. This would give a few more years to really polarise politics into FFG against the rest, leading in some way to a similarity in the UK of Tory V Labour.

This polarizing would see the end of FG I would suggest. There is no gain and everything to loose for FG to prop FF. It was different in the last government as FF were still not in a fit state to face the country and benefited from lying low.

However if SF go into power, they will have some amount of disgruntled followers as promises and expectations don't materialise. They'll be back to square 1 again.

Too soon for SF, but I suspect EGO is pretty high and they'll not resist..

Say my name

Another point is SF as a party their sole aim is reunification of the country.
There's major uncertainty about Brexit and no doubt it'll take years for things to settle in the north.
If they ever had a chance to capitalise on the distruption and potential harm to the northern economy (and ours) in calling for a border poll and perhaps getting it through....it would be now.
They'll have greater leverage of achieving that in government than not in the next few years.

visatorro

bogman_bass wrote:

Ah he will. If you win Navan you win Meath West and he is still popular there. His sister hasn’t a hope. A possibility of a second seat in Cavan but I doubt it.

Would him not going with the party on the 8th not go against him. He's not advertising it but that is why he left sf.

bogman_bass

visatorro wrote: »

Would him not going with the party on the 8th not go against him. He's not advertising it but that is why he left sf.

Yes and no. I know twitter makes it out to still be issue for people but I don't think its an absolute deal breaker that some make it out to be.
I know people (my own mother included) that will vote for him now because he's left Sinn Fein where they couldn't bring themselves to do it before.


I wouldn't vote for him myself but i still think he'll sneak that 3rd seat.
If he does and SF are in contention to make a "Coalition of the Left" with SF as top dogs then things get very interesting very fast.
Do they try and pull him back into the fold?

Bass Reeves

Bass Reeves wrote: »

For a bit of crack and to see how good our pundits are I have started this thread so that lads can hazzard an opinion on party numbers after next election so here goes. This is my guess at the moment but will update it after I see final exit poll.

FF45-48.....46 seats
FG 30-37....35 seats
SF 35-40.....36 seats
Greens 10-14....12 seats but steam going out of there campaign
Lab 5 seats but improving
Social democrats 3 seats
Solidarity 5 seats but may benefit hugely from SF lack of candidates
Aontu 3 seats against benefit from SF lack of candidates
Independent's 15 seats may not reach this with a numbers of high profile independent's gone such as Claire Daly and Mick Wallace to Europe, and other that were in government with FG not standing or tainted by there presence

As I said I would update after exit poll and here is the exit poll

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/2020/0208/1114069-exit-poll-main/

Ivan yates predictions on News talk are completely wrong he gave the seats as follows
FF 60
FG 32
SF 25
Gr 10
Lab 7
Soc Dem 2
Solid/PBP 5
Aontu 1
Ind 18

First a few reasons for my numbers. While FF and Fg have too many candidates SF has too few. It is worth noting for the first time ever the left vote will be equal to the center and right vote with independents holding the balance. I am assuming the left will transfer fairly strongly within the left. I saw figures as well for a Dublin exit poll and that showed FF at 14%, FG and SF at the same as there national figures. This means that even in Dublin four and five seat constituencies FF will not have a quota. This is not to mean that they will not win seats there but they will not take a seat in every constituency. If that is replicated across other large urban centers it will mean that FF will struggle there too. On the other hand that should mean in rural Ireland FF should be at over 30%. However FF has a history of having poll toppers and this would mean that they could struggle to convert this into seats. However they tend to out preform exit polls. As well they should receive more preferences than FG from the left. FG however are better at vote management and there candidates work better together. Younger voters are more likely to engage with pollster and older voters less likely that may indicate that SF may be higher than expect in the exit poll and FF lower.

I looked at the exit poll and I split it into three sections FFFG vote, the left vote and independents. I gave FF/FG 80-90 seats but settle on 84, I gave independents 12-16 and settled on 12 and the left 55-65 and settle on 64 seats so I split as follows.

FF 41
FG 43
SF 32
GR 14
Lab 6
Soc Dem 4
Aontu 2
Sol/PBP 6
Independent 12


FF will have one advantage going into Government formation talks it will have more independents of its gene poll to look for support and the Greens, Lab and Soc Democrats would find it easier to support then. It would require Confidence and supply from FG. If FF dump Micheal Martin they could do a volte face and with SF and the Greens or maybe Lab and Soc Democrats have a majority.

Panch18

The day Ireland becomes a communist country

Bass Reeves

Panch18 wrote: »

The day Ireland becomes a communist country

I think like a lot of extremely well off people you are over exaggerating the result. The ultra hard left has only 5-10%of the vote. Labour and the Greens are only soft left parties. Believe it or not the answer to SF vote is power. That is always the answer to popular vote. The hard realities of power softens there cough.

All that has happens is that we are seeing a Europeanisation of our bit into left and right blocks at present. It interesting to look at one SF policy of full convergene and the first 30HA front loaded at 400/HA. Not sure if they have the sun's done on it but it would change the stupid rental prices

Panch18

Panch18 wrote: »

The day Ireland becomes a communist country

Ever so slightly dramatic there.

Panch18

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I think like a lot of extremely well off people you are over exaggerating the result. The ultra hard left has only 5-10%of the vote. Labour and the Greens are only soft left parties. Believe it or not the answer to SF vote is power. That is always the answer to popular vote. The hard realities of power softens there cough.

All that has happens is that we are seeing a Europeanisation of our bit into left and right blocks at present. It interesting to look at one SF policy of full convergene and the first 30HA front loaded at 400/HA. Not sure if they have the sun's done on it but it would change the stupid rental prices

As an extremely well off person yourself I think you are underestimating the result

The problem is that people seem to think that SF is only soft left. The reality of SF is going to come back and bite a lot of people in the ass.

Weren’t the soviet communist party and Castro the biggest idols of the Last SF leader

Zetor19

Larry Goodman and Glanbia etc are way bigger scumbags than SF.

Panch18

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Ever so slightly dramatic there.

In what way now?

Gerry Adams being a regular attendee at the soviet communist party conventions in the 1980’s. Extremely close ties to Castro in Cuba. SF associates training FARC in Columbia. Didn’t SF support the communist government that has turned The basket case that is Venezuela as well

If people think that SF have seen the light of their past and are somehow transformed then they are sadly mistaken

Panch18

Zetor19 wrote: »

Larry Goodman and Glanbia etc are way bigger scumbags than SF.

Did glanbia ever take a 21 year old fella out to a secluded farmyard and literally beat him to death and break every bone in his body?

Panch18

Panch18 wrote: »

In what way now?

Gerry Adams being a regular attendee at the soviet communist party conventions in the 1980’s. Extremely close ties to Castro in Cuba. SF associates training FARC in Columbia. Didn’t SF support the communist government that has turned The basket case that is Venezuela as well

If people think that SF have seen the light of their past and are somehow transformed then they are sadly mistaken

In that they may win between 30-35 seats in a system that requires 80 to form a government.
In that, going on the exit poll of last night, 78% of the electorate did not vote SF.
In that the rest of left parties and all independents together won't form a government, or on the incredible off chance they did, it wouldn't last a wet week.

I believe BR has nailed the reasoning behind the over reaction. I also agree the solution to these dastardly reds under the bed is actually a spell in power. However, I am open minded to being pleasantly surprised. SF do seem to have a number of seemingly able people like Doherty, O Broinn, Cullinane, Kenny, O Reilly.

That's not to say I approve of their history, or agree with all of their policies, the reality is SF have increased their vote and will improve on their seat numbers from the last Dail.

That's still a long shout from Government, never mind totalitarianism.

I await references to 1933.

Zetor19

I’d say Glanbia shortened a few lads lives no doubt about that. As for Goodman you be doing well to find a a bigger scumbag.

Bass Reeves

Panch18 wrote: »

As an extremely well off person yourself I think you are underestimating the result

The problem is that people seem to think that SF is only soft left. The reality of SF is going to come back and bite a lot of people in the ass.

Weren’t the soviet communist party and Castro the biggest idols of the Last SF leader

Panch18 wrote: »

In what way now?

Gerry Adams being a regular attendee at the soviet communist party conventions in the 1980’s. Extremely close ties to Castro in Cuba. SF associates training FARC in Columbia. Didn’t SF support the communist government that has turned The basket case that is Venezuela as well

If people think that SF have seen the light of their past and are somehow transformed then they are sadly mistaken

In 1980's SF were more about sourcing guns than about getting votes. The realities of power are totally different to being in opposition. FF and FG along with there gene pool TD's will still have the bones of 90-100 TD's IMO. Ideally FF or FG would love the other party to form a government with SF. It would leave the other party as the bastion of the center right, FF are the more likely to grasp the nettle of power. It would make interesting bedfellows in late 2021 as the Treaty centeary celebrations and state foundations come into play.

But the problem for the left is it fracture when in power. The hard left is unwilling that the vast majority off the population believe that work and endeavor must be rewarded to some extent. Slight left governments like Blairs in England can stay in power but Corbyn left agenda is unpalatable. It the same in Ireland the left views of Boyd Barret and Paul Murphy sre the biggest danger to left politics.

kk.man

Three reasons why both FF + FG will loose out in this election ;
Murphy
Harris
Creed

FF are culpable by supporting the Government. They simply didn't listen. Most Government parties of the 80s got rid of Ministers who underperformed. Since the 00s that has changed and the government parties paid the price.

memorystick

Panch18 wrote: »

Did glanbia ever take a 21 year old fella out to a secluded farmyard and literally beat him to death and break every bone in his body?

Name the politician that did that?

_Brian

Watching Michael Martin there on RTE.

Can see he’s absolutely changed from his position of not going into government with FG or SF

No surprise

Panch18

Bass Reeves wrote: »

In 1980's SF were more about sourcing guns than about getting votes. The realities of power are totally different to being in opposition. FF and FG along with there gene pool TD's will still have the bones of 90-100 TD's IMO. Ideally FF or FG would love the other party to form a government with SF. It would leave the other party as the bastion of the center right, FF are the more likely to grasp the nettle of power. It would make interesting bedfellows in late 2021 as the Treaty centeary celebrations and state foundations come into play.

But the problem for the left is it fracture when in power. The hard left is unwilling that the vast majority off the population believe that work and endeavor must be rewarded to some extent. Slight left governments like Blairs in England can stay in power but Corbyn left agenda is unpalatable. It the same in Ireland the left views of Boyd Barret and Paul Murphy sre the biggest danger to left politics.

Well SF are far more Corbin than Blair that’s for sure, worse I would say given their association with criminals etc

Panch18

memorystick wrote: »

Name the politician that did that?

Ask your local SF td and I’m sure he’d be able to tell you who carried out that horrific murder.

ABlur

_Brian wrote: »

Watching Michael Martin there on RTE.

Can see he’s absolutely changed from his position of not going into government with FG or SF

No surprise

Expect 'the National Interest' to feature over the next few days as they change positions.

Panch18

[Deleted User] wrote: »

In that they may win between 30-35 seats in a system that requires 80 to form a government.
In that, going on the exit poll of last night, 78% of the electorate did not vote SF.
In that the rest of left parties and all independents together won't form a government, or on the incredible off chance they did, it wouldn't last a wet week.

I believe BR has nailed the reasoning behind the over reaction. I also agree the solution to these dastardly reds under the bed is actually a spell in power. However, I am open minded to being pleasantly surprised. SF do seem to have a number of seemingly able people like Doherty, O Broinn, Cullinane, Kenny, O Reilly.

That's not to say I approve of their history, or agree with all of their policies, the reality is SF have increased their vote and will improve on their seat numbers from the last Dail.

That's still a long shout from Government, never mind totalitarianism.

I await references to 1933.

They will only have 35 seats approx because they didn’t run enough candidates.

To be poll toppers in so many constituencies, places where in the past they wouldn’t have got a few hundred votes is mind boggling

And my comment on the country going communist is because in this election more people will have voted against FF and FG then for them. This is a massive swing to the left, and a hard left. Not a tony Blair left

awaywithyou

Panch18 wrote: »

They will only have 35 seats approx because they didn’t run enough candidates.

To be poll toppers in so many constituencies, places where in the past they wouldn’t have got a few hundred votes is mind boggling

And my comment on the country going communist is because in this election more people will have voted against FF and FG then for them. This is a massive swing to the left, and a hard left. Not a tony Blair left

In 5 yrs time SinnFein will b decimated.... when they won’t deliver anywhere near what people expect them to deliver

Panch18

awaywithyou wrote: »

In 5 yrs time SinnFein will b decimated.... when they won’t deliver anywhere near what people expect them to deliver

And the damage along the way??

patsy_mccabe

8 seats filled so far and 7 are to Sinn Fein.

White Clover

Just heard Willie O Dea on the television. Fianna Fail will be in bed with the IRA within a week. Sick.

whelan2

White Clover wrote: »

Just heard Willie O Dea on the television. Fianna Fail will be in bed with the IRA within a week. Sick.

Did they not say before the election that they wouldnt go in with sinn fein?

RandomViewer

Panch18 wrote: »

Well SF are far more Corbin than Blair that’s for sure, worse I would say given their association with criminals etc

FG would be very cosy with certain well known Dublin faces, Regency hotel springs to mind

endainoz

The freak outs from the anti Sinn Fein brigade has been absolutely hilarious. It's been a compelling day of TV that's for sure.

RandomViewer

White Clover wrote: »

Just heard Willie O Dea on the television. Fianna Fail will be in bed with the IRA within a week. Sick.

FF armed the IRA , they've always been connected, FG quite happy to play with DUP

Bullocks

whelan2 wrote: »

Did they not say before the election that they wouldnt go in with sinn fein?

Yeah, but that was before the election!

White Clover

whelan2 wrote: »

Did they not say before the election that they wouldnt go in with sinn fein?

They did, but they'd do anything for power, even going into coalition with the IRA political wing.