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What will the numbers be after next election

  • 03-02-2020 12:04pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 17,920 ✭✭✭✭


    For a bit of crack and to see how good our pundits are I have started this thread so that lads can hazzard an opinion on party numbers after next election so here goes. This is my guess at the moment but will update it after I see final exit poll.

    FF45-48.....46 seats
    FG 30-37....35 seats
    SF 35-40.....36 seats
    Greens 10-14....12 seats but steam going out of there campaign
    Lab 5 seats but improving
    Social democrats 3 seats
    Solidarity 5 seats but may benefit hugely from SF lack of candidates
    Aontu 3 seats against benefit from SF lack of candidates
    Independent's 15 seats may not reach this with a numbers of high profile independent's gone such as Claire Daly and Mick Wallace to Europe, and other that were in government with FG not standing or tainted by there presence

    Slava Ukrainii



«13456710

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 18,417 ✭✭✭✭_Brian


    For a bit of crack and to see how good our pundits are I have started this thread so that lads can hazzard an opinion on party numbers after next election so here goes. This is my guess at the moment but will update it after I see final exit poll.

    FF45-48.....46 seats
    FG 30-37....35 seats
    SF 35-40.....36 seats
    Greens 10-14....12 seats but steam going out of there campaign
    Lab 5 seats but improving
    Social democrats 3 seats
    Solidarity 5 seats but may benefit hugely from SF lack of candidates
    Aontu 3 seats against benefit from SF lack of candidates
    Independent's 15 seats may not reach this with a numbers of high profile independent's gone such as Claire Daly and Mick Wallace to Europe, and other that were in government with FG not standing or tainted by there presence

    I think your bang on the e money for the greens.
    I’d expect 5-6 less for SF and FF/FG closer.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,864 ✭✭✭alps


    FF 55
    FG 36
    SF 25
    LAB 7
    GRN 11

    FF/SF comfy with few Inds in tow


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,747 ✭✭✭Mac Taylor


    With 158 seats and 80 to make a majority, it’s hard to see anything but a hung dail with maybe a reverse of the current FG/FF deal, as bad as the 2 traditionalist big parties are.....what will it be like with Sinn Fein and the greens. I have to laugh when pushed on who or what is going to pay for everything......‘the big lad’ is the standard response. But who is the proverbial big lad, add in a wealth tax on property including land. I’ve no issue in fairness and if I thought increasing tax would improve things then fair enough but I do have an issue with free this and free that, if it’s free it has no value....rant over.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,630 ✭✭✭amacca


    Mac Taylor wrote: »
    but I do have an issue with free this and free that, if it’s free it has no value....rant over.

    Agreed...but that goes for all sectors/levels of society

    no free money in the form overly generous tax breaks for the big boys just as much as no free money for lads sitting on their hole dealing drugs as a nixer etc


  • Registered Users Posts: 111 ✭✭TL17


    Think FF will be close to 60 and FG will drop to low 30s.FF lab Greens to govern wit few Ind

    FF 58
    FG 33
    SF 28
    LAB 9
    GRN 7
    PBP 5
    SOC DEMS 4
    Aontu 2
    IND 12


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,890 ✭✭✭Bullocks


    I'm no expert but I wonder when we all get into the box will we still keep FG pretty high up the ballot papers so they might still beat FF on seats if not by much.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,471 ✭✭✭Panch18


    For a bit of crack and to see how good our pundits are I have started this thread so that lads can hazzard an opinion on party numbers after next election so here goes. This is my guess at the moment but will update it after I see final exit poll.

    FF45-48.....46 seats
    FG 30-37....35 seats
    SF 35-40.....36 seats
    Greens 10-14....12 seats but steam going out of there campaign
    Lab 5 seats but improving
    Social democrats 3 seats
    Solidarity 5 seats but may benefit hugely from SF lack of candidates
    Aontu 3 seats against benefit from SF lack of candidates
    Independent's 15 seats may not reach this with a numbers of high profile independent's gone such as Claire Daly and Mick Wallace to Europe, and other that were in government with FG not standing or tainted by there presence

    Hoping and praying that SF won't get 36 seats from 42 candidates. 26 is more than i could stomach from that shower


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,049 ✭✭✭visatorro


    Cant see aontu getting 3 seats. Peader Toibin will do well to hold onto his seat imv.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,391 ✭✭✭✭Timmaay


    Was it the 92 election that Labour had 33 seats? Could you image telling someone back then, well come 2020 we'll be looking at Labour all but wiped off the map, the Shinners possibly ahead of FG, and greens with a dozen ha.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,920 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Bullocks wrote: »
    I'm no expert but I wonder when we all get into the box will we still keep FG pretty high up the ballot papers so they might still beat FF on seats if not by much.

    While you and I might ten of thousands out there will not. I will not be giving my seconf preference to the second FG candidate. People forget was it 2002 where FG nearly got wiped out

    Panch18 wrote: »
    Hoping and praying that SF won't get 36 seats from 42 candidates. 26 is more than i could stomach from that shower

    The PR system really rewards you when you hit 18-20% this is a virtual quota in a 3 seater. SF are at 25% this will elect candidates that you never heard of before if it is translated into votes the day of the election. SF started poorly but have momentum now. There biggest problem is they have not got enough candidates in the field
    visatorro wrote: »
    Cant see aontu getting 3 seats. Peader Toibin will do well to hold onto his seat imv.

    Normally I would say no, but with SF at 25% I expect that Solidarity and Aontu to pick up seats because of that. SF will transfer strongly to Solidarity and I expect to Aontu too
    Timmaay wrote: »
    Was it the 92 election that Labour had 33 seats? Could you image telling someone back then, well come 2020 we'll be looking at Labour all but wiped off the map, the Shinners possibly ahead of FG, and greens with a dozen ha.

    FG and SF will have the opposite problems SF will have too few candidates in 42 just like Labour in 1992 and 2011 and FG might like 2002 have too many. What may save FG is that FF are not up in the mid 30's in the polls. If the independent and smaller parties were not there FG would be looking at the mid 20's seats wise.

    Slava Ukrainii



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,049 ✭✭✭bogman_bass


    visatorro wrote: »
    Cant see aontu getting 3 seats. Peader Toibin will do well to hold onto his seat imv.

    Ah he will. If you win Navan you win Meath West and he is still popular there.
    His sister hasn’t a hope.
    A possibility of a second seat in Cavan but I doubt it.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,559 Mod ✭✭✭✭blue5000


    You'll have to revise those seat numbers downwards by 5 seats as Tipp election is postponed for a month. Looks like we might have 2 SF candidates, 2 independents and 1 FF here.

    It could end up like Spain, no one able to put a gov together and back to vote again in June.

    If the seat's wet, sit on yer hat, a cool head is better than a wet ar5e.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,567 ✭✭✭✭patsy_mccabe


    I'm amazed at the number of people in their early 40's or so who support Sinn Fein. Early 50's and up and the support is virtually zero.
    I worry what they will do if they get into power and I am a strong republican at heart. :mad:

    'The Bishops blessed the Blueshirts in Galway, As they sailed beneath the Swastika to Spain'



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,275 ✭✭✭Anto_Meath


    Pasty I would agree with you, but I don't know if they really want to get into power. There is no way they could do what they are saying, Sinn Fein are good a sound bits and influencing social media (say something they dislike and a swarm of them jump on you) put in reality their policies don't add up. I admire SF for some of what they had to do in the North but I admire the SDLP more. I cant see anything only a hung Dail and all back to the polls in 6 months.


  • Registered Users Posts: 85 ✭✭Rossie11


    Odds of a 2nd election in 2020 is 9/1
    That is tempting based on the numbers this election is going to throw up.
    SF would be happy with it as well as they could run more candidates in hope of been the largest party in terms of seats next time out


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,409 ✭✭✭J.O. Farmer


    I'm amazed at the number of people in their early 40's or so who support Sinn Fein. Early 50's and up and the support is virtually zero.
    I worry what they will do if they get into power and I am a strong republican at heart. :mad:

    People in their early 40s now got most screwed in 2008. They were late 20s early 30s buying their homes, starting families.

    They look at FF/FG and see the only difference is civil war politics. Most of the Labour party were probably there before they were old enough to vote and also were part of the 2011 FG government. This leaves Sinn Fein as the only half viable alternative.

    Early 50s bought their houses and started families before the boom and got the benefits. They're not so disaffected with the established parties.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,920 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Rossie11 wrote: »
    Odds of a 2nd election in 2020 is 9/1
    That is tempting based on the numbers this election is going to throw up.
    SF would be happy with it as well as they could run more candidates in hope of been the largest party in terms of seats next time out

    I think SF would prefer a government to last 1-3 years and then fall apart. This would give it time to redesign there policies towards being much more pragmatic. As well by the looks of it it will have the numbers to claim that it is the main opposition.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,567 ✭✭✭✭patsy_mccabe


    People in their early 40s now got most screwed in 2008. They were late 20s early 30s buying their homes, starting families.

    They look at FF/FG and see the only difference is civil war politics. Most of the Labour party were probably there before they were old enough to vote and also were part of the 2011 FG government. This leaves Sinn Fein as the only half viable alternative.

    Early 50s bought their houses and started families before the boom and got the benefits. They're not so disaffected with the established parties.

    Ya, good point. I always thought it had more to do with not being old enough to remember The Troubles.

    'The Bishops blessed the Blueshirts in Galway, As they sailed beneath the Swastika to Spain'



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,864 ✭✭✭alps


    I think SF would prefer a government to last 1-3 years and then fall apart. This would give it time to redesign there policies towards being much more pragmatic. As well by the looks of it it will have the numbers to claim that it is the main opposition.

    The best outcome for SF would be for FG to prop a FF government. This would give a few more years to really polarise politics into FFG against the rest, leading in some way to a similarity in the UK of Tory V Labour.

    This polarizing would see the end of FG I would suggest. There is no gain and everything to loose for FG to prop FF. It was different in the last government as FF were still not in a fit state to face the country and benefited from lying low.

    However if SF go into power, they will have some amount of disgruntled followers as promises and expectations don't materialise. They'll be back to square 1 again.

    Too soon for SF, but I suspect EGO is pretty high and they'll not resist..


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,832 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    Another point is SF as a party their sole aim is reunification of the country.
    There's major uncertainty about Brexit and no doubt it'll take years for things to settle in the north.
    If they ever had a chance to capitalise on the distruption and potential harm to the northern economy (and ours) in calling for a border poll and perhaps getting it through....it would be now.
    They'll have greater leverage of achieving that in government than not in the next few years.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,049 ✭✭✭visatorro


    Ah he will. If you win Navan you win Meath West and he is still popular there. His sister hasn’t a hope. A possibility of a second seat in Cavan but I doubt it.


    Would him not going with the party on the 8th not go against him. He's not advertising it but that is why he left sf.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,049 ✭✭✭bogman_bass


    visatorro wrote: »
    Would him not going with the party on the 8th not go against him. He's not advertising it but that is why he left sf.
    Yes and no. I know twitter makes it out to still be issue for people but I don't think its an absolute deal breaker that some make it out to be.
    I know people (my own mother included) that will vote for him now because he's left Sinn Fein where they couldn't bring themselves to do it before.


    I wouldn't vote for him myself but i still think he'll sneak that 3rd seat.
    If he does and SF are in contention to make a "Coalition of the Left" with SF as top dogs then things get very interesting very fast.
    Do they try and pull him back into the fold?


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,920 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    For a bit of crack and to see how good our pundits are I have started this thread so that lads can hazzard an opinion on party numbers after next election so here goes. This is my guess at the moment but will update it after I see final exit poll.

    FF45-48.....46 seats
    FG 30-37....35 seats
    SF 35-40.....36 seats
    Greens 10-14....12 seats but steam going out of there campaign
    Lab 5 seats but improving
    Social democrats 3 seats
    Solidarity 5 seats but may benefit hugely from SF lack of candidates
    Aontu 3 seats against benefit from SF lack of candidates
    Independent's 15 seats may not reach this with a numbers of high profile independent's gone such as Claire Daly and Mick Wallace to Europe, and other that were in government with FG not standing or tainted by there presence

    As I said I would update after exit poll and here is the exit poll

    https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/2020/0208/1114069-exit-poll-main/

    Ivan yates predictions on News talk are completely wrong he gave the seats as follows
    FF 60
    FG 32
    SF 25
    Gr 10
    Lab 7
    Soc Dem 2
    Solid/PBP 5
    Aontu 1
    Ind 18

    First a few reasons for my numbers. While FF and Fg have too many candidates SF has too few. It is worth noting for the first time ever the left vote will be equal to the center and right vote with independents holding the balance. I am assuming the left will transfer fairly strongly within the left. I saw figures as well for a Dublin exit poll and that showed FF at 14%, FG and SF at the same as there national figures. This means that even in Dublin four and five seat constituencies FF will not have a quota. This is not to mean that they will not win seats there but they will not take a seat in every constituency. If that is replicated across other large urban centers it will mean that FF will struggle there too. On the other hand that should mean in rural Ireland FF should be at over 30%. However FF has a history of having poll toppers and this would mean that they could struggle to convert this into seats. However they tend to out preform exit polls. As well they should receive more preferences than FG from the left. FG however are better at vote management and there candidates work better together. Younger voters are more likely to engage with pollster and older voters less likely that may indicate that SF may be higher than expect in the exit poll and FF lower.

    I looked at the exit poll and I split it into three sections FFFG vote, the left vote and independents. I gave FF/FG 80-90 seats but settle on 84, I gave independents 12-16 and settled on 12 and the left 55-65 and settle on 64 seats so I split as follows.

    FF 41
    FG 43
    SF 32
    GR 14
    Lab 6
    Soc Dem 4
    Aontu 2
    Sol/PBP 6
    Independent 12


    FF will have one advantage going into Government formation talks it will have more independents of its gene poll to look for support and the Greens, Lab and Soc Democrats would find it easier to support then. It would require Confidence and supply from FG. If FF dump Micheal Martin they could do a volte face and with SF and the Greens or maybe Lab and Soc Democrats have a majority.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,471 ✭✭✭Panch18


    The day Ireland becomes a communist country


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,920 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Panch18 wrote: »
    The day Ireland becomes a communist country

    I think like a lot of extremely well off people you are over exaggerating the result. The ultra hard left has only 5-10%of the vote. Labour and the Greens are only soft left parties. Believe it or not the answer to SF vote is power. That is always the answer to popular vote. The hard realities of power softens there cough.

    All that has happens is that we are seeing a Europeanisation of our bit into left and right blocks at present. It interesting to look at one SF policy of full convergene and the first 30HA front loaded at 400/HA. Not sure if they have the sun's done on it but it would change the stupid rental prices

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Panch18 wrote: »
    The day Ireland becomes a communist country

    Ever so slightly dramatic there.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,471 ✭✭✭Panch18


    I think like a lot of extremely well off people you are over exaggerating the result. The ultra hard left has only 5-10%of the vote. Labour and the Greens are only soft left parties. Believe it or not the answer to SF vote is power. That is always the answer to popular vote. The hard realities of power softens there cough.

    All that has happens is that we are seeing a Europeanisation of our bit into left and right blocks at present. It interesting to look at one SF policy of full convergene and the first 30HA front loaded at 400/HA. Not sure if they have the sun's done on it but it would change the stupid rental prices

    As an extremely well off person yourself I think you are underestimating the result

    The problem is that people seem to think that SF is only soft left. The reality of SF is going to come back and bite a lot of people in the ass.

    Weren’t the soviet communist party and Castro the biggest idols of the Last SF leader


  • Registered Users Posts: 155 ✭✭Zetor19


    Larry Goodman and Glanbia etc are way bigger scumbags than SF.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,471 ✭✭✭Panch18


    Ever so slightly dramatic there.

    In what way now?

    Gerry Adams being a regular attendee at the soviet communist party conventions in the 1980’s. Extremely close ties to Castro in Cuba. SF associates training FARC in Columbia. Didn’t SF support the communist government that has turned The basket case that is Venezuela as well

    If people think that SF have seen the light of their past and are somehow transformed then they are sadly mistaken


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,471 ✭✭✭Panch18


    Zetor19 wrote: »
    Larry Goodman and Glanbia etc are way bigger scumbags than SF.

    Did glanbia ever take a 21 year old fella out to a secluded farmyard and literally beat him to death and break every bone in his body?


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