February 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Sorry this is a bit late by the usual schedule, I just realized it is the 30th already.

So the contest will be as always ...

1. Predict the IMT (don't have 1981-2010 average at hand, think it's around 5.4)

2. Predict the MAX

3. Predict the MIN

4. Predict the PRC (% of normal).

5. Predict the SUN (% of normal).

6. BONUS -- Predict the hours of sunshine lighting up your love life in Cork on the 14th (answer between 0.0 and 10.0 hours).

Any other details about your love life please keep to yourself, I will respect that also.

If anyone new to our contest stumbles in here, further details about the contest questions can be obtained by looking for the Jan 2020 contest opening post or any other month. Some of the definitions are available in those other threads.

Deadline will be 0300h Saturday 1st of Feb, with penalties of one point for each four hours late after that (increasing to one point per hour after 1500h 2nd).

Good luck !!

MTC _____ 6.0 _ 15.5 _ -4.7 _ 128 _ 090 _ 2.4 hrs

NormaL ___ 5.4 _ 15.7 _ -6.6 _ 100 _ 100 _ 2.5 hrs

pauldry

Pauldry _____ 7.0 _ 15.8_ -5 _ 98 _ 104 _ 5.5 hrs

Least I forget

Bsal

Bsal ___ 5.0 _ 13.8 _ -5.2 _ 95 _ 95 _ 3.5 hrs

sryanbruen

sryanbruen _____ 6.2 _ 15.9 _ -2.6 _ 105 _ 70 _ 0.6 hrs

John mac

john mac_____ 5.5 _ 16.2_ -4.7 _ 101 _ 96_ 1.5 hrs

not late this month for a change

sunflower3

Sunflower3___ 5.8_ 16.0_ -2.4 _ 90 _ 90 _ 0.5 hrs

waterways

waterways ___ 5.4 _ 16.3 _ -4.2 _ 158 _ 95 _ 1.7 hrs

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ___ 5.9 _ 15.2 _ -4.3 _ 126 _ 92 _ 3.8 hrs

Artane2002

Artane2002 ___ 5.9 _ 16.1 _ -3.2 _ 107 _ 88 _ 2.7 hrs

Joe Public

Joe Public _____ 5.5 _ 13.7 _ -6.7 _ 96 _ 110 _ 2 hrs

mrskinner

Skinner______6.3_____15.5_____-4.9______111_____95_____1.9

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ___ 6.6 _ 16.3 _ -3.4 _ 88 _ 100 _ 2.8 hrs

dacogawa

Dacogawa _____ 6.1 _ 15.1_ -3.9 _ 134 _ 86 _ 0.5 hrs

Rikand

Rikand ___6.5 ___ 16.0 ___ -4.0 ___ 90 ____ 120 ___ 9.0

Jpmarn

Jpmarn___ 5.2_ 15.1_ -5.6 _ 120 _ 90 _ 1.5 hrs

Late because of Brexit happening and undergoing a career change.

adam240610

Adam240610 __6.4__16.0__-5.3__90__100__3

mickger844posts

mickger844posts _____ 5.8 _ 15.1 _ -3.7 _ 108 _ 086 _ 3.4 hrs

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 5.6 ___ 15.5 ___ -3.5 ___ 100 ___ 100 ___ 2.0

dasa29

dasa29 ___ 5.5 ___ 14.5 ___ -3.0 ___ 100 ___ 105 ___ 6.0

M.T. Cranium

Table of entries for February 2020


FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ hrs sun Cork 14th

Pauldry ____________7.0 _ 15.8 _ -5.0 _ 098 _ 104 __ 5.5

Tae laidir __________ 6.6 _ 16.3 _ -3.4 _ 088 _ 100 __ 2.8

Rikand ___ (-2) _____6.5 _ 16.0 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 120 __ 9.0

Adam240610__ (-2) _ 6.4 _ 16.0 _ -5.3 _ 090 _ 100 __ 3.0

MrSkinner __________6.3 _ 15.5 _ -4.9 _ 111 _ 095 __ 1.9

sryanbruen _________6.2 _ 15.9 _ -2.6 _ 105 _ 070 __ 0.6

Dacogawa _________ 6.1 _ 15.1 _ -3.9 _ 134 _ 086 __ 0.5

M.T. Cranium _______ 6.0 _ 15.5 _ -4.7 _ 128 _ 090 __ 2.4

Artane2002 ________ 5.9 _ 16.1 _ -3.2 _ 107 _ 088 __ 2.7

DOCARCH __________5.9 _ 15.2 _ -4.3 _ 126 _ 092 __ 3.8


___ Con Sensus _____5.9 _ 15.5 _ -4.2 _ 101 _ 095 __ 2.6

Sunflower3 _________5.8 _ 16.0 _ -2.4 _ 090 _ 090 __ 0.5

BLIZZARD7 __ (-10) _ 5.8 _ 16.0 _ -8.0 _ 134 _ 090 __ 7.4

mickger844posts (-4)_5.8 _ 15.1 _ -3.7 _ 108 _ 086 __ 3.4

Kindred Spirit _ (-4) _ 5.6 _ 15.5 _ -3.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 2.0

john mac __________ 5.5 _ 16.2 _ -4.7 _ 101 _ 096 __ 1.5

dasa29 ______ (-4) _ 5.5 _ 14.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 105 __ 6.0

Joe Public __________5.5 _ 13.7 _ -6.7 _ 096 _ 110 __ 2.0

waterways _________ 5.4 _ 16.3 _ -4.2 _ 158 _ 095 __ 1.7


___ NormaL ________5.3 _ 15.7 _ -6.6 _ 100 _ 100 __ 2.5


Jpmarn ___ (-2) ____ 5.2 _ 15.1 _ -5.6 _ 120 _ 090 __ 1.5

Bsal ______________ 5.0 _ 13.8 _ -5.2 _ 095 _ 095 __ 3.5

=======================================

Con Sensus is now set for median value of 20 entries.

I checked the Feb normal IMT and it was 5.34 so changed to 5.3 from 5.4.

Our group forecast appears to be mild, near normal for rainfall, dull (and windy I would expect).




_

BLIZZARD7

Very late, Apologies!

BLIZZARD7 _____ 5.8 _ 16.0 _ -8.0 _ 134 _ 090 _ 7.4 hrs

Tae laidir

I haven't being monitoring, but Mt Dillon was - 2.5 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT was 6.1, which was 0.8 above normal.

MAX and MIN will likely occur later, something like 12 and -2.5 so far.

PRC was 62% of normal.

SUN was a generous 127% of normal. (761/600)

Tae laidir

Sun shone for 2.3 hours in Cork yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT on 5.7, second week average was 5.3, normal for the period.

MAX and MIN remain to be determined, at least by me.

PRC is now 209% of normal, as the week was very wet (356% of normal).

SUN is 115% after the second week came in near average at 104% (626/600).

Bonus as reported above 2.3 hours.

Scoring as follows:

10 pts __ MTC (2.4), Joe Public and KindredSpirit (2.0), also NormaL, Con Sensus

9 pts __ Artane2002 (2.7), MrSkinner (1.9)

8 pts __ Tae laidir (2.8)

7 pts __ waterways (1.7), Adam240610 (3.0)

6 pts __ JPmarn (1.5), john mac (1.5), mickger844posts (3.4)

5 pts __ Bsal (3.5), DOCARCH (3.8)

4 pts __ sryanbruen (0.6), sunflower3 (0.5), dacogawa (0.5)

3 pts __ Pauldry (5.5), dasa29 (6.0)

2 pts __ BLIZZARD7 (7.4) and Rikand (9.0)

(decided not to award 0 or 1 pts as result was near average)

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT on 5.9 C, the third week averaged 6.3, which was 0.8 above normal. Looks like the finish may be a bit lower around 5.5 possibly.

MAX and MIN may have to come from the MS this time, I have not been aware of any real extremes yet (yesterday reached 12.0).

PRC is now 247% of normal, the third week averaged 324% of normal. This will definitely come in a long way above our highest forecasts in the 130s.

SUN now down to 105% of normal with this past week 84% (503/600). This appears to be headed down to at least 100% and possibly a bit below that.

As it's a leap year we'll have a report after four weeks before the final bell.

M.T. Cranium

A brief incursion of mild air overnight allowed Moorepark to reach 14 C at 0400h. This may turn out to be our MAX once verified.

Joe Public

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

A brief incursion of mild air overnight allowed Moorepark to reach 14 C at 0400h. This may turn out to be our MAX once verified.

They put it down as 13.9C

Jpmarn

I presume the Max may have been broken today as Cork Airport reported 16°C at 1400 but it only reported 11°c at 1300 and 1500.

Rikand

Minimum progression in place for the rainfall, I presume ?

Tae laidir

Jpmarn wrote: »

I presume the Max may have been broken today as Cork Airport reported 16°C at 1400 but it only reported 11°c at 1300 and 1500.

Met Eireann sensor in Cork must have gotten COVID19 for an hour. Max reported as 11.8.
Oak Park reported 14.0. A new monthly max?

M.T. Cranium

So rather late getting to this, after four weeks

IMT 5.8 after fourth week 5.7 (0.3 below normal).

MAX 14

MIN -2.5

PRC has increased again to 260% (fourth week 292%).

SUN has edged back up to 107% with the fourth week at 113% (676/600).

Some preliminary end of month numbers later, will probably hold to these values generally speaking.

M.T. Cranium

Final values or estimates ...

IMT 5.8 C

MAX 14.0

MIN -2.5 (to be checked, this value would set up minimum progression scoring with reduced boost as two forecasts have raw scores of 19/20) -- looks like it would work out to be normal scoring plus one basically. But not entirely sure we didn't miss a lower value than -2.5, may check a few stations and see if I can find a lower value before 3rd.

PRC 268% (minimum progression and maximum group shaming)

SUN 105-110 (to be nailed down from MS)

The bonus was already discussed and scored back in the thread.

I may post some provisional scoring as I expect the MS will be out on the third of March.

M.T. Cranium

Confirmed scoring for February 2020

Checked the MS and aside from a slight change to sunshine, everything else checked out.

FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Bonus ______ TOTAL

Confirmed values ____5.8_ 14.0_ -2.5_ 268_ 108__2.3


dasa29 ______ (-4) _ 22 _ 17*_ 17*_ 06*_ 09 __ 03 _ 74-4= 70

Joe Public __________22 _ 19*_ 00 _ 04*_ 10 __ 10 ______ 65

Dacogawa _________ 22 _ 13*_ 08*_ 11*_ 06 __ 04 ______ 64

Artane2002 ________ 24 _ 01*_ 15*_ 08*_ 06 __ 09 ______ 63

Kindred Spirit _ (-4) _ 23 _ 08*_ 13*_ 05*_ 08 __ 10 _ 67-4=63

mickger844posts (-4)_ 25 _ 12*_ 10*_ 08*_ 06 __ 06 _ 67-4=63


___ Con Sensus _____24 _ 08*_ 06*_ 07*_ 07 __ 10 ______ 62


DOCARCH _________ 24 _ 10*_ 05*_ 10*_ 07 __ 05 ______ 61

Sunflower3 ________ 25 _ 02*_ 20*_ 03*_ 06 __ 04 ______ 60

M.T. Cranium _______23 _ 08*_ 02*_ 10*_ 06 __ 10 ______ 59

sryanbruen ________ 21 _ 04*_ 20*_ 07*_ 02 __ 04 ______ 58

waterways ________ 21 _ 00 __ 06*_ 13*_ 07 __ 07 ______ 54

Bsal ______________17 _ 20*_ 01*_ 04*_ 07 __ 05 ______ 54

MrSkinner _________20 _ 08*_ 01*_ 09*_ 07 __ 09 ______ 54

Jpmarn ___ (-2) ____19 _ 12*_ 01*_ 09*_ 06 __ 06 _ 53-2=51


___ NormaL _______ 20 _ 06*_ 00 __06*_ 08 __ 10 ______ 50


Tae laidir __________ 17 _ 00 _ 14*_ 02*_ 08 __ 08 ______ 49

john mac __________ 22 _ 01*_ 02*_ 07*_ 08 __ 06 ______ 46

Adam240610__ (-2) _ 19 _ 02*_ 01*_ 03*_ 08 __ 07 _ 40-2=38

Rikand ___ (-2) _____18 _ 02*_ 07*_ 03*_ 08 __ 02 _ 40-2=38

Pauldry ___________ 13 _ 05*_ 01*_ 05*_ 09 __ 03 ______ 36

BLIZZARD7 __ (-10) _25 _ 02*_ 00 _ 11*_ 06 __ 02 _46-10=36
_____________________________________________

* minimum progression applied to MAX was a "reduced boost" (half the increase in points available) as top raw score was 18/20.
-- the net effect was to raise most scores by 2-3 points and eliminate a lot of zero scores that became 1,2.
For MIN the same general outcome applies. Most people gained 2-3 points from the procedure.

For PRC the raw scores were all zero, so I decided that the minimum progression would run from 13 down to zero (out of 15) since nobody ventured that close to the reality. Then as one forecast was a little closer than the pack, the sequence went 13, 11, 11, 10, 10, 9, 9, 8, 8 etc. This worked its way down to a low score of 2 which I thought was fair since the group effort was so wide of the mark.

At least for IMT and SUN we were all in scoring territory anyway.

Congrats to Dasa29 who has emerged a little ahead of a big clump of others in the low 60s.

Will get to the annual totals and four seasons later today.

=================================================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ hrs sun Cork 14th

Pauldry ____________7.0 _ 15.8 _ -5.0 _ 098 _ 104 __ 5.5

Tae laidir __________ 6.6 _ 16.3 _ -3.4 _ 088 _ 100 __ 2.8

Rikand ___ (-2) _____6.5 _ 16.0 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 120 __ 9.0

Adam240610__ (-2) _ 6.4 _ 16.0 _ -5.3 _ 090 _ 100 __ 3.0

MrSkinner __________6.3 _ 15.5 _ -4.9 _ 111 _ 095 __ 1.9

sryanbruen _________6.2 _ 15.9 _ -2.6 _ 105 _ 070 __ 0.6

Dacogawa _________ 6.1 _ 15.1 _ -3.9 _ 134 _ 086 __ 0.5

M.T. Cranium _______6.0 _ 15.5 _ -4.7 _ 128 _ 090 __ 2.4

Artane2002 ________ 5.9 _ 16.1 _ -3.2 _ 107 _ 088 __ 2.7

DOCARCH __________5.9 _ 15.2 _ -4.3 _ 126 _ 092 __ 3.8


___ Con Sensus _____5.9 _ 15.5 _ -4.2 _ 101 _ 095 __ 2.6

Sunflower3 _________5.8 _ 16.0 _ -2.4 _ 090 _ 090 __ 0.5

BLIZZARD7 __ (-10) _ 5.8 _ 16.0 _ -8.0 _ 134 _ 090 __ 7.4

mickger844posts (-4)_5.8 _ 15.1 _ -3.7 _ 108 _ 086 __ 3.4

Kindred Spirit _ (-4) _ 5.6 _ 15.5 _ -3.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 2.0

john mac __________ 5.5 _ 16.2 _ -4.7 _ 101 _ 096 __ 1.5

dasa29 ______ (-4) _ 5.5 _ 14.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 105 __ 6.0

Joe Public __________5.5 _ 13.7 _ -6.7 _ 096 _ 110 __ 2.0

waterways _________ 5.4 _ 16.3 _ -4.2 _ 158 _ 095 __ 1.7


___ NormaL ________5.3 _ 15.7 _ -6.6 _ 100 _ 100 __ 2.5


Jpmarn ___ (-2) ____ 5.2 _ 15.1 _ -5.6 _ 120 _ 090 __ 1.5

Bsal ______________ 5.0 _ 13.8 _ -5.2 _ 095 _ 095 __ 3.5

M.T. Cranium

Updated annual scoring for Jan-Feb 2020


FORECASTER ________ Jan _ Feb ___ TOTAL


Mrskinner ___________ 86 _ 54 _____ 140

Jpmarn _____________ 86 _ 51 _____ 137

Dacogawa ___________73 _ 64 _____ 137

Joe Public ___________ 70 _ 65 _____ 135


___ Con Sensus ______ 70 _ 62 _____ 132


M.T. Cranium ________ 69 _ 59 _____ 128

Sunflower3 __________ 68 _ 60 _____ 128

Kindred Spirit ________ 61 _ 63 _____ 124


___ NormaL _________ 70 _ 50 _____ 120


DOCARCH ___________58 _ 61 _____ 119

Artane2002 __________56 _ 63 _____ 119

Dasa29 _____________ 48 _ 70 _____ 118

mickger844posts ______55 _ 63 _____ 118

Tae laidir ____________67 _ 49 _____ 116

Bsal ________________62 _ 54 _____ 116

john mac ____________64 _ 46 _____ 110

Rikand ______________68 _ 38 _____ 106

sryanbruen __________ 47 _ 58 _____ 105

BLIZZARD7 __________66 _ 36 _____ 102

Adam240610 ________ 62 _ 38 _____ 100

Pauldry _____________63 _ 36 ______ 99


JCXBXC ____________ 58 _ --- ______ 58

WesternStorm _______ 54 _ --- ______ 54

waterways __________ --- _ 54 ______ 54

esposito ____________ 49 _ --- ______ 54

200motels __________ 47 _ --- ______ 54

==============================================

note _ this table contains only scoring for those who entered all three months

Four Seasons contest winter 2019-20 scoring

FORECASTER ____________ Total score ____ points


MrSkinner __________________230 ________ 10

JPmarn ____________________215 __________7


____ Con Sensus ____________ 213 _________ 6


mickger844posts ____________ 206 __________6

Artane2002 _________________202 _________ 5

sunflower3 _________________ 199 _________ 4

Joe Public __________________ 197 _________ 3

dacogawa __________________ 190 _________ 2

Bsal _______________________189 _________ 1


___ NormaL ________________ 188 __________1


Tae laidir ___________________186 __________1

John mac __________________ 180 __________ 1

Kindred Spirit _______________ 179

M. T. Cranium _______________179

DOCARCH __________________ 178

dasa29 ____________________ 175

pauldry ____________________ 174

sryanbruen _________________ 172

Adam240610 _______________ 170

Rikand _____________________166

BLIZZARD7 _________________ 133

---

Well done MrSkinner for leading both contests at this early stage.