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February 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 30-01-2020 10:15am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,194 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Sorry this is a bit late by the usual schedule, I just realized it is the 30th already.

    So the contest will be as always ...

    1. Predict the IMT (don't have 1981-2010 average at hand, think it's around 5.4)

    2. Predict the MAX

    3. Predict the MIN

    4. Predict the PRC (% of normal).

    5. Predict the SUN (% of normal).

    6. BONUS -- Predict the hours of sunshine lighting up your love life in Cork on the 14th (answer between 0.0 and 10.0 hours).

    Any other details about your love life please keep to yourself, I will respect that also.

    If anyone new to our contest stumbles in here, further details about the contest questions can be obtained by looking for the Jan 2020 contest opening post or any other month. Some of the definitions are available in those other threads.

    Deadline will be 0300h Saturday 1st of Feb, with penalties of one point for each four hours late after that (increasing to one point per hour after 1500h 2nd).

    Good luck !!

    MTC _____ 6.0 _ 15.5 _ -4.7 _ 128 _ 090 _ 2.4 hrs

    NormaL ___ 5.4 _ 15.7 _ -6.6 _ 100 _ 100 _ 2.5 hrs


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,849 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry _____ 7.0 _ 15.8_ -5 _ 98 _ 104 _ 5.5 hrs

    Least I forget


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,713 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal ___ 5.0 _ 13.8 _ -5.2 _ 95 _ 95 _ 3.5 hrs


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen _____ 6.2 _ 15.9 _ -2.6 _ 105 _ 70 _ 0.6 hrs

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,995 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac_____ 5.5 _ 16.2_ -4.7 _ 101 _ 96_ 1.5 hrs

    not late this month for a change :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3___ 5.8_ 16.0_ -2.4 _ 90 _ 90 _ 0.5 hrs


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  • Registered Users Posts: 350 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways ___ 5.4 _ 16.3 _ -4.2 _ 158 _ 95 _ 1.7 hrs


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,105 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ___ 5.9 _ 15.2 _ -4.3 _ 126 _ 92 _ 3.8 hrs


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,858 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002 ___ 5.9 _ 16.1 _ -3.2 _ 107 _ 88 _ 2.7 hrs


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public _____ 5.5 _ 13.7 _ -6.7 _ 96 _ 110 _ 2 hrs


  • Registered Users Posts: 359 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner______6.3_____15.5_____-4.9______111_____95_____1.9


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  • Registered Users Posts: 622 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ___ 6.6 _ 16.3 _ -3.4 _ 88 _ 100 _ 2.8 hrs


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,772 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa _____ 6.1 _ 15.1_ -3.9 _ 134 _ 86 _ 0.5 hrs


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,558 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ___6.5 ___ 16.0 ___ -4.0 ___ 90 ____ 120 ___ 9.0


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,408 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn___ 5.2_ 15.1_ -5.6 _ 120 _ 90 _ 1.5 hrs

    Late because of Brexit happening and undergoing a career change.


  • Registered Users Posts: 747 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    Adam240610 __6.4__16.0__-5.3__90__100__3


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts _____ 5.8 _ 15.1 _ -3.7 _ 108 _ 086 _ 3.4 hrs


  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 5.6 ___ 15.5 ___ -3.5 ___ 100 ___ 100 ___ 2.0


  • Registered Users Posts: 457 ✭✭ dasa29


    dasa29 ___ 5.5 ___ 14.5 ___ -3.0 ___ 100 ___ 105 ___ 6.0


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,194 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of entries for February 2020


    FORECASTER ______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ hrs sun Cork 14th

    Pauldry ____________7.0 _ 15.8 _ -5.0 _ 098 _ 104 __ 5.5

    Tae laidir __________ 6.6 _ 16.3 _ -3.4 _ 088 _ 100 __ 2.8

    Rikand ___ (-2) _____6.5 _ 16.0 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 120 __ 9.0

    Adam240610__ (-2) _ 6.4 _ 16.0 _ -5.3 _ 090 _ 100 __ 3.0

    MrSkinner __________6.3 _ 15.5 _ -4.9 _ 111 _ 095 __ 1.9

    sryanbruen _________6.2 _ 15.9 _ -2.6 _ 105 _ 070 __ 0.6

    Dacogawa _________ 6.1 _ 15.1 _ -3.9 _ 134 _ 086 __ 0.5

    M.T. Cranium _______ 6.0 _ 15.5 _ -4.7 _ 128 _ 090 __ 2.4

    Artane2002 ________ 5.9 _ 16.1 _ -3.2 _ 107 _ 088 __ 2.7

    DOCARCH __________5.9 _ 15.2 _ -4.3 _ 126 _ 092 __ 3.8


    ___ Con Sensus _____5.9 _ 15.5 _ -4.2 _ 101 _ 095 __ 2.6

    Sunflower3 _________5.8 _ 16.0 _ -2.4 _ 090 _ 090 __ 0.5

    BLIZZARD7 __ (-10) _ 5.8 _ 16.0 _ -8.0 _ 134 _ 090 __ 7.4

    mickger844posts (-4)_5.8 _ 15.1 _ -3.7 _ 108 _ 086 __ 3.4

    Kindred Spirit _ (-4) _ 5.6 _ 15.5 _ -3.5 _ 100 _ 100 __ 2.0

    john mac __________ 5.5 _ 16.2 _ -4.7 _ 101 _ 096 __ 1.5

    dasa29 ______ (-4) _ 5.5 _ 14.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 105 __ 6.0

    Joe Public __________5.5 _ 13.7 _ -6.7 _ 096 _ 110 __ 2.0

    waterways _________ 5.4 _ 16.3 _ -4.2 _ 158 _ 095 __ 1.7


    ___ NormaL ________5.3 _ 15.7 _ -6.6 _ 100 _ 100 __ 2.5


    Jpmarn ___ (-2) ____ 5.2 _ 15.1 _ -5.6 _ 120 _ 090 __ 1.5

    Bsal ______________ 5.0 _ 13.8 _ -5.2 _ 095 _ 095 __ 3.5

    =======================================

    Con Sensus is now set for median value of 20 entries.

    I checked the Feb normal IMT and it was 5.34 so changed to 5.3 from 5.4.

    Our group forecast appears to be mild, near normal for rainfall, dull (and windy I would expect).




    _


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    Very late, Apologies!

    BLIZZARD7 _____ 5.8 _ 16.0 _ -8.0 _ 134 _ 090 _ 7.4 hrs


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  • Registered Users Posts: 622 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    I haven't being monitoring, but Mt Dillon was - 2.5 yesterday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,194 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After the first week ...

    IMT was 6.1, which was 0.8 above normal.

    MAX and MIN will likely occur later, something like 12 and -2.5 so far.

    PRC was 62% of normal.

    SUN was a generous 127% of normal. (761/600)


  • Registered Users Posts: 622 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Sun shone for 2.3 hours in Cork yesterday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,194 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After two weeks ...

    IMT on 5.7, second week average was 5.3, normal for the period.

    MAX and MIN remain to be determined, at least by me.

    PRC is now 209% of normal, as the week was very wet (356% of normal).

    SUN is 115% after the second week came in near average at 104% (626/600).

    Bonus as reported above 2.3 hours.

    Scoring as follows:

    10 pts __ MTC (2.4), Joe Public and KindredSpirit (2.0), also NormaL, Con Sensus

    9 pts __ Artane2002 (2.7), MrSkinner (1.9)

    8 pts __ Tae laidir (2.8)

    7 pts __ waterways (1.7), Adam240610 (3.0)

    6 pts __ JPmarn (1.5), john mac (1.5), mickger844posts (3.4)

    5 pts __ Bsal (3.5), DOCARCH (3.8)

    4 pts __ sryanbruen (0.6), sunflower3 (0.5), dacogawa (0.5)

    3 pts __ Pauldry (5.5), dasa29 (6.0)

    2 pts __ BLIZZARD7 (7.4) and Rikand (9.0)

    (decided not to award 0 or 1 pts as result was near average)


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,194 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After three weeks ...

    IMT on 5.9 C, the third week averaged 6.3, which was 0.8 above normal. Looks like the finish may be a bit lower around 5.5 possibly.

    MAX and MIN may have to come from the MS this time, I have not been aware of any real extremes yet (yesterday reached 12.0).

    PRC is now 247% of normal, the third week averaged 324% of normal. This will definitely come in a long way above our highest forecasts in the 130s.

    SUN now down to 105% of normal with this past week 84% (503/600). This appears to be headed down to at least 100% and possibly a bit below that.

    As it's a leap year we'll have a report after four weeks before the final bell.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,194 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    A brief incursion of mild air overnight allowed Moorepark to reach 14 C at 0400h. This may turn out to be our MAX once verified.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    A brief incursion of mild air overnight allowed Moorepark to reach 14 C at 0400h. This may turn out to be our MAX once verified.

    They put it down as 13.9C


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,408 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    I presume the Max may have been broken today as Cork Airport reported 16°C at 1400 but it only reported 11°c at 1300 and 1500.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,558 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Minimum progression in place for the rainfall, I presume ? :)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 622 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Jpmarn wrote: »
    I presume the Max may have been broken today as Cork Airport reported 16°C at 1400 but it only reported 11°c at 1300 and 1500.

    Met Eireann sensor in Cork must have gotten COVID19 for an hour. Max reported as 11.8.
    Oak Park reported 14.0. A new monthly max?


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