GE20 - Galway East

Sligo eye

I put out a correct prediction last time around for Galway East so no harm in doing it again...

Last time out the Greenway campaigners were backing Labour Senator Lorraine Higgins for Galway East. Today the former senator has left politics and gone back to her career at the Bar, while Sean Canney, who many remember topped the poll last time, despite an intense campaign of vilification by the Greenway campaigners.

So this time around, the Greenway campaigners are backing Ciaran Cannon of FG. (And of course running that campaign of vilification of Canney again!)

My predictions are that Cannon will lose his seat, and that Canney will top the poll again.

I think we are possibly looking at 1 Ind, 1 FF and 1 SF.

What are your predictions?

Snow Garden

1. Canney (Ind)
2. Rabbitte (FF)
3. Cannon (FG)

Boring enough but fairly predictable.

ClanofLams

Snow Garden wrote: »

1. Canney (Ind)
2. Rabbitte (FF)
3. Cannon (FG)

Boring enough but fairly predictable.

Yeah hard to see past this. I’m surprised Killilea is as short a price as he is (2-1) given he only got in the race, officially at least, last week.

I'm not too sure about Canney. I don't think his stint in office has done him many favours. Plus I think Killilea will eat into his voter base.

Mr Velo

I too think Canney could be in trouble here. Don't write off Pete Roche's chances either.

GerardKeating

The full list for the constituency is

• Martin Ward Aontú.
• Anne Rabbitte Fianna Fáil ***
• Donagh Killilea Fianna Fáil
• Ciarán Cannon Fine Gael ***
• Pete Roche Fine Gael
• Eoin Madden Green Party
• Seán Canney Independent ***
• David O’Reilly Independent
• Deaglán Mac Canna Renua
• Louis O’Hara Sinn Féin
• Peter Reid Social Democrats
• Marian Spelman Labour Party

*** Sitting TD

aw

GerardKeating wrote: »

The full list for the constituency is

• Martin Ward Aontú.
• Anne Rabbitte Fianna Fáil ***
• Donagh Killilea Fianna Fáil
• Ciarán Cannon Fine Gael ***
• Pete Roche Fine Gael
• Eoin Madden Green Party
• Seán Canney Independent ***
• David O’Reilly Independent
• Deaglán Mac Canna Renua
• Louis O’Hara Sinn Féin
• Peter Reid Social Democrats
• Marian Spelman Labour Party

*** Sitting TD

Anyone else feel it is quite an uninspiring list?

I'd agree that the most likely return is the three sitting TD's.
However there are some interesting permutations.

Anne Rabbitte did well in North Galway last time due to Family connections, but has to contend with both DK and PR this time who will take from her pool.
Sean Canney's popularity has waned, I don't think he'll top the poll this time out.
Ciaran Cannon should get in fairly handily this time around

Pete Roche and Donagh Killilea will be in with a realistic shout, and it will be fascinating to watch the vote management and the count unfold.

Hard to see a Green bounce in this rural heartland for the newcomer. Likewise, Sinn Fein won't figure here. Labout might pick up some votes and it wouldn't surprise me to see Spellman come ahead of Madden and O'Hara.

The rest are also-rans.

Robert2014

It is quite an uninspiring list. I think the lack of support for the Greenway will eat into Canney's vote share. There was a strong march in favour of it last year and you would expect it to be an issue.

There is definitely at least one Fianna Fail seat in the constituency. Even after the crash Fianna Fail won a seat here. Also it's hard to see Fine Gael go from having 2 seats up to 2016 to none now.

Agreed, not likely to see the Greens or SF feature.

Most likely scenario is that all 3 retain their seats IMO.

grbear

It's the first time since I was old enough to vote that I'm considering not bothering. I probably still will but that's a grim list of candidates.

It's baffling to see smaller parties continually put such a big effort into fighting over scraps in Galway West while practically ignoring Galway East and leaving it to the least inspiring set of TDs I can remember. You'd think that the results of gay marraige and abortion referendums would give some hint that Galway East, and other rural constituencies, aren't the hillbilly infested backwaters some commentators like to pretend they are.

Fann Linn

grbear wrote: »

It's the first time since I was old enough to vote that I'm considering not bothering. I probably still will but that's a grim list of candidates.

It's baffling to see smaller parties continually put such a big effort into fighting over scraps in Galway West while practically ignoring Galway East and leaving it to the least inspiring set of TDs I can remember. You'd think that the results of gay marraige and abortion referendums would give some hint that Galway East, and other rural constituencies, aren't the hillbilly infested backwaters some commentators like to pretend they are.

Same here in old Galway East, now Galway/ Roscommon not a lot to choose from:

Eugene Murphy FF.
Denis Naughten FG/Ind.
Mick Fitz Ind.


I think I'll give my first preference to the Shinners and Murphy my no. 2 just to piss of the M. Martin brigade who have parachuted in Terry Leyden's daughter, Orla, on the ticket.

flazio

Seems like Sinn Fein aren't sure which constituency Laurencetown is in. Passed through the village recently and saw posters for both their East Galway and Roscommon candidates.

Galwayguy35

Sligo eye wrote: »

I put out a correct prediction last time around for Galway East so no harm in doing it again...

Last time out the Greenway campaigners were backing Labour Senator Lorraine Higgins for Galway East. Today the former senator has left politics and gone back to her career at the Bar, while Sean Canney, who many remember topped the poll last time, despite an intense campaign of vilification by the Greenway campaigners.

So this time around, the Greenway campaigners are backing Ciaran Cannon of FG. (And of course running that campaign of vilification of Canney again!)

My predictions are that Cannon will lose his seat, and that Canney will top the poll again.

I think we are possibly looking at 1 Ind, 1 FF and 1 SF.

What are your predictions?

The SF guy hasn't a hope of getting in, Cannon won't lose his seat either I think Canney might lose his though.

I'm going to say Cannon and Rabbitte and maybe Canney.

I'm thinking Cannon, Rabbitte and Roche or Canney

ratracer

It’ll be interesting to see how many first preference votes that Roche takes from Cannon and Killelea takes from Rabitte.
I think (hope) Canney is goosed, a lot of competition for the Tuam vote, and he has done damn all for the rest of his constituency, even when he was a minister. Done little for flood relief in South Galway at a time when the whole country was watching.

I’d go for Cannon, Rabbitte and one of Roche or Killalea. I just don’t see the other candidates getting over the line.

GerardKeating

ratracer wrote: »

I’d go for Cannon, Rabbitte and one of Roche or Killalea. I just don’t see the other candidates getting over the line.

Things will never change if people keep voting for the "Old Guard", perhaps if you want change, perhaps give your first preferance to one smaller parties (Green SocDem etc) and give your later preferences to the "old guard". This might give the existing representatives a scare and maybe encourge them to up their game.

grbear

I noticed Rabbitte has posters up around Barnadearg and Abbeyknockmoy. Fine Gael are leaving that area clear for Pete Roche with no sign of Cannon anywhere which seems smart on their part.
I doubt Killileas camp are happy with that carry on from their supposed partner.

Mr Velo

grbear wrote: »

I noticed Rabbitte has posters up around Barnadearg and Abbeyknockmoy. Fine Gael are leaving that area clear for Pete Roche with no sign of Cannon anywhere which seems smart on their part.
I doubt Killileas camp are happy with that carry on from their supposed partner.

She has posters up in Tuam town also - asking for Number 1.

ratracer

GerardKeating wrote: »

Things will never change if people keep voting for the "Old Guard", perhaps if you want change, perhaps give your first preferance to one smaller parties (Green SocDem etc) and give your later preferences to the "old guard". This might give the existing representatives a scare and maybe encourge them to up their game.

I think Ciarán Cannon has done a good job for his constituents and in his ministerial role in this Dáil, and I will vote No1 for him again because of this. I don’t think Canney has been very good, although I’d be a greenway fan and he’s an ardent ‘delayer’ of the Quietman Greenway. Anne Rabbitte was kinda caught in a bind, she was a frontbencher spokesperson for a party that wasn’t in cahoots with the govt so didn’t really get a chance to shout too loudly.

So after No 1, the rest of my voting card is open to all........

Vegetarian2017

I am still indecisive

Dank Janniels

Started a thread for the Roscommon Galway area if anyone is anyways interested

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058051251

Galwayguy35

Cannon was quiet good at getting things done in our area as well so will give him first preference, Rabbitte isnn't too far aways either but you would only hear from her when it's election time.

Rabbitte threw her lot in with the Beef Plan folks but when she attended meetings they ended up in a farce.

She may pull some of the farming vote from Canney as a result but maybe not enough to stop him getting in

One thing is for sure, Canneys vote is going to take a hammering, we'll just have to wait and see how much though

grbear

Rabbittes an odd one. I'm assuming she is safe in her seat and the bookies odds, for what they are worth in this sort of thing, certainly reflect that.

The strange thing is that I haven't met anyone since the election was called who has anything good to say about her. Even the FF diehards I know are all firmly Killilea 1, Rabbitte 2. Maybe I just need to get out more.

Wombatman

Anyone voting for this wizard?

galwaybabe

A useful guide for voters in Galway East

ratracer

galwaybabe wrote: »

A useful guide for voters in Galway East

Your table is kinda skewed, intentionally or not!

Why did you not fill in the actual answers to questions for some of the candidates, just a single line answer?

FWIW, of the three sitting TD’s, IIRC:

Cannon was against it personally, but voted in favour of the referendum.
Rabbitte and I’m almost certain Canney, were against it personally, but voted against even having a referendum.

galwaybabe

All candidates were sent a set of questions. Some of them chose not to reply so the only info available on their opinions was that info which is on public record

flazio

It's only their opinion on one particular topic though. A topic that the Irish people have already had their own say on.

galwaybabe

flazio wrote: »

It's only their opinion on one particular topic though. A topic that the Irish people have already had their own say on.

It is several variants on a topic and it is very important to a lot of people where the candidates stand on this

ratracer

It’s interesting the O’Reilly agrees with free contraception but doesn’t agree with sex education.... is education not how you learn about contraception in the first place?

Or perhaps I’m being a little harsh on him, could you put up a full list of the questions asked, rather than a vague heading?

galwaybabe

ratracer wrote: »

It’s interesting the O’Reilly agrees with free contraception but doesn’t agree with sex education.... is education not how you learn about contraception in the first place?

Or perhaps I’m being a little harsh on him, could you put up a full list of the questions asked, rather than a vague heading?

O'Reilly is a complete fascist nutbag follower of Gemma O'Doherty who genuinely doesn't know his arse from his elbow.

I wasn't the person who put the questionnaire together - it was AACWest. I have sent them a message to ask them.

flazio

In the Roscommon side of East Galway now but if I was in this constituency, Rabbite would have dropped down my ballot for using a garish light sign on the Loughrea bypass. I'm of the opinion there should be legislation brought in that they are only to be used for traffic information and not advertising or campaigning.

Milly33

thanks Galway babe as an outsider but voting in Galway tis hard to know. I have been listening to GBFM and taking notes, but just wondering i cannot think of his name. Who is the candidate running who is the homeless chap.. Cant stand any of them to be honest but doing my research tonight to try and make a good choice

Galwayguy35

grbear wrote: »

I noticed Rabbitte has posters up around Barnadearg and Abbeyknockmoy. Fine Gael are leaving that area clear for Pete Roche with no sign of Cannon anywhere which seems smart on their part.
I doubt Killileas camp are happy with that carry on from their supposed partner.

I'd say Rabbitte wasn't too happy today Killileas lads were up this end knocking on dooers.

Galwayguy35

galwaybabe wrote: »

It is several variants on a topic and it is very important to a lot of people where the candidates stand on this

I'd say most people couldn't care less where they stand on it, voters on a rural constituency have more pressing issues rather than something that has already been voted on and passed a few years ago.

SD and Greens are toxic in this area anyway they will get nowhere.

galwaybabe

Milly33 wrote: »

thanks Galway babe as an outsider but voting in Galway tis hard to know. I have been listening to GBFM and taking notes, but just wondering i cannot think of his name. Who is the candidate running who is the homeless chap.. Cant stand any of them to be honest but doing my research tonight to try and make a good choice

That guy is running for a far-right party and has a lot of fascist views. He takes part regularly in anti-immigration protests and is a dedicated follower of Gemma O'Doherty. Stay well away!

galwaybabe

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

I'd say most people couldn't care less where they stand on it, voters on a rural constituency have more pressing issues rather than something that has already been voted on and passed a few years ago.

SD and Greens are toxic in this area anyway they will get nowhere.

I've been out canvassing for the last few weeks and I can assure you that it has come up a lot on the door

Milly33

But what is his name

aw

Milly33 wrote: »

But what is his name

A homeless candidate?

Or a candidate that works with the homeless?

I'm not sure we have any that fall in either category.

Milly33

the homeless candiate? There is one as he has been on the radio several times

Milly33

thinking it was DEAGLAN MAC CANNA but can find much about him

Galwayguy35

Just back there now from the polling station, high turnout they were saying despite the horrible weather this evening.

Mad_maxx

Snow Garden wrote: »

1. Canney (Ind)
2. Rabbitte (FF)
3. Cannon (FG)

Boring enough but fairly predictable.

easily the most boring and uninspiring constituency in the country , no big hitter TD

i predict no change here since 2016

as we were as they say

Galwayguy35

The only thing to watch out for really is to see how O Hara will do.

grbear

Looking like Canney is safe but Rabbitte and Cannon are less sure of their spot and might lose out to their running mate.


Be some fun if they have to go again next month.

Sligo eye

grbear wrote: »

Looking like Canney is safe but Rabbitte and Cannon are less sure of their spot and might lose out to their running mate.


Be some fun if they have to go again next month.

Cannon will regret aligning himself so close to Quinn and Mulligan the anti rail campaigners.

Galwayguy35

grbear wrote: »

Looking like Canney is safe but Rabbitte and Cannon are less sure of their spot and might lose out to their running mate.


Be some fun if they have to go again next month.

Surprised to hear that, I'd have thought those two were sure to get back in.

grbear

They probably still will but they'll be made to sweat for it. Cannon looks to be in a tighter spot right now.

GerardKeating

First Count is in

SEÁN CANNEY, IND 7,815
LOUIS O'HARA, SF 7,108
CIARAN CANNON, FG 6,298
PETE ROCHE, FG 6,034
ANNE RABBITTE, FF 5,762
DONAGH MARK KILLILEA, FF 4,932
EOIN MADDEN, GP 1,924
PETER REID, SD 848
MARIAN SPELMAN, LAB 845
MARTIN 'JONESY' WARD, AON 582
DAVID O'REILLY, IND 246
DEAGLÁN MACCANNA, RN 126

O'REILLY and MACCANNA eliminated.


My prediction for the result.

SF,FF,FG

is_that_so

Looks like as you were then.

Galwayguy35

O Hara did well, didn't see that happening.