Fine Gael 'in crisis' after falling 12% in the polls

Muahahaha

And the Sunday Times are putting it down to them wanting to grab the Black and Tans and shake them by the hand. Leo and Charlie Flanagan seem to have made a serious political miscalculation with their planned celebrations of the Royal Ulster Constabulary

Fine Gael has plummeted to its lowest ever rating in The Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes polling series, falling seven points in a month to 20%, while Fianna Fail is up five to 32% at the outset of the election.

The dramatic poll result, probably influenced by the row earlier this month over the planned commemoration of the Royal Irish Constabulary (RIC), suggests there was a 12-point gap between the two biggest parties just as the taoiseach asked President Michael D Higgins to dissolve the Dail early last week.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/fine-gael-in-crisis-as-fianna-fail-jumps-to-12-point-lead-in-polls-hcbw5r26j

Its like Fine Gael have managed to win the ball but then theyve gone and stuck it into the top corner of their own net. A 12% fall in a tracking poll is unprecedented in Irish electoral politics, even allowing for the 3% margin of error Leo and pals have lost all momentum just days after he fired the starting gun.

Michael Martin now looking a dead cert to be the next Taoiseach, he is unbackable on Paddy Power at 1/4 on in a two horse race. I wouldnt mind but he hasnt even done anything, Fine Gael have literally given it to him on a plate.

Must say Id hate to be one of those many FG shills on here who have spent countless hours over the last three years defending FG and Leo and then he goes and blows his load early and serves the election up to Fianna Fail anyway. Talk about wasting your time for nothing anyway.

CageWager

Muahahaha wrote: »

And the Sunday Times are putting it down to them wanting to grab the Black and Tans and shake them by the hand. Leo and Charlie Flanagan seem to have made a serious political miscalculation with their planned celebrations of the Royal Ulster Constabulary


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/fine-gael-in-crisis-as-fianna-fail-jumps-to-12-point-lead-in-polls-hcbw5r26j

Its like Fine Gael have managed to win the ball but then theyve gone and stuck it into the top corner of their own net. A 12% fall in a tracking poll is unprecedented in Irish electoral politics, even allowing for the 3% margin of error Leo and pals have lost all momentum just days after he fired the starting gun.

Michael Martin now looking a dead cert to be the next Taoiseach, he is unbackable on Paddy Power at 1/4 on in a two horse race. I wouldnt mind but he hasnt even done anything, Fine Gael have literally given it to him on a plate.

Must say Id hate to be one of those many FG shills on here who have spent countless hours over the last three years defending FG and Leo and then he goes and blows his load early and serves the election up to Fianna Fail anyway. Talk about wasting your time for nothing anyway.

If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

Yurt2

It's not merely Tanfest that's hurting them. This was a sneery government generally. When problems were highlighted in the media such as housing the usual response was something like 'your problems aren't actually problems, you're just thinking about it wrong'

- then expecting to go out and turn on the charm at election time. Wasn't gonna happen.

iebamm2580

**** ff, people have short memories. FG, flanagan in particular is a clown but at least they are planning on some tax cuts.

McMurphy

iebamm2580 wrote: »

**** ff, people have short memories. FG, flanagan in particular is a clown but at least they are planning on some tax cuts.

Or very good memories depending how you look at it.

The black and tans controversy is being suggested as what has damaged them so badly, and if true, is a sign the Irish people don't like trying to have their history whitewashed regardless how far back they go

As for taxes.

How's that usc abolition they promised in 2016 going?

The Royal Scam

iebamm2580 wrote: »

**** ff, people have short memories. FG, flanagan in particular is a clown but at least they are planning on some tax cuts.

Making that promise is something they are good at.


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fg-still-plans-to-scrap-usc-despite-imf-warning-kenny-says-1.2504358

iebamm2580

Im not pro fine gael at all, im thinking of myself here and they are more than likely going to put more in my pocket then anybody else, the ric commemoration was unbelievable but that clown flanagan is a nonsense virtue signaler.

iebamm2580

USC is here because of ff dont forget.

JeffKenna

iebamm2580 wrote: »

Im not pro fine gael at all, im thinking of myself here and they are more than likely going to put more in my pocket then anybody else, the ric commemoration was unbelievable but that clown flanagan is a nonsense virtue signaler.

Are they really? I can't see anything in the last few years that would back that up.

whisky_galore

People should be more worried about housing, the dire health system, criminality and how much they have in their pockets, you know issues that affect living people, not emotional issues about long dead people.

is_that_so

Need to see other polls and establish a trend. I reckon it's a whole lot closer than that and SF supposedly at 19% is laughable.

TheValeyard

FF at 32%! It's like everyone has forgotten this shower truly fcuked over the entire country. I'm no fan of FG either, but come on, how can anyone vote FF after the previous time they were in power!!

Nevin Parsnipp

FG keep scoring own goals ..thats the problem...the RIC commemoration was the final straw....what were they thinking ?

Love the way folks blame the Govt for the current law and order issue....sure they have some responsibility....but the abject failure of the Keystones and the completely broken legal system(a complete gravy train for the law library) are major contributors.

J Mysterio

The RIC commemoration was undoubtedly the straw that broke the camels back. Add to that the homeless issue, hospital cues persisting and worsening (also childrens hospital mess) and a lack of house building. Maria Bailey. And now 'the law and order party' message as people are being killed and chopped up. Their recent messaging and timing has been absolutely horrendous.

FG were on a wave with how well they handled Brexit but they just pissed away much of that goodwill with the RIC commemoration (and then doubling down on it and insulting peoples intelligence and morals).

They picked the absolute worst time for the election and I feel they will be given a right kicking. Martin didn't need to do a damn thing but sit pretty.

mycro2013

TheValeyard wrote: »

FF at 32%! It's like everyone has forgotten this shower truly fcuked over the entire country. I'm no fan of FG either, but come on, how can anyone vote FF after the previous time they were in power!!

The main issue is fine Gael seem to have forgotten that they were put in power to serve the people who voted them in. This simple concept seems to have been diluted down following years in power. With each politician seemingly taking on vanity projects to increase their ego.

This poll will open their eyes as to how far they are off the pulse of the voting public. Aleast in the last election ff knew they were in for a bloodbath prior to the election.

mycro2013

J Mysterio wrote: »

The RIC commemoration was undoubtedly the straw that broke the camels back. Add to that the homeless issue, hospital cues persisting and worsening (also childrens hospital mess) and a lack of house building. Maria Bailey. And now 'the law and order party' message as people are being killed and chopped up. Their recent messaging and timing has been absolutely horrendous.

FG were on a wave with how well they handled Brexit but they just pissed away much of that goodwill with the RIC commemoration (and then doubling down on it and insulting peoples intelligence and morals).

They picked the absolute worst time for the election and I feel they will be given a right kicking. Martin didn't need to do a damn thing but sit pretty.

Add to that direct provision, that is a mess waiting to happen as it's busting at the seams.

Bishop of hope

TheValeyard wrote: »

FF at 32%! It's like everyone has forgotten this shower truly fcuked over the entire country. I'm no fan of FG either, but come on, how can anyone vote FF after the previous time they were in power!!

They made a remarkable recovery in 2016 even, going on that and the previous election.
I don't know if any or many of you on the politics thread are on Facebook or twitter, but there's a massive anti FG thing going on on both, if social media is anything to go by then I can easily see how there is a strong resentment being built up against them.
Young people can't afford houses or rent, the homeless crisis, the health service is absolutely chronic, the trying to commerate the Black and Tans, drugs and horrendous murders commonplace, I could go on and on.
They are in Govt and things seem to be out of hand all over the place.
So if you want an alternative it's either FF or the left.
FG have a massive massive job on their hands and a weak leader

Underground

You love to see it. Looks like Madigan might actually her seat in my constituency if this is accurate.

is_that_so

Bishop of hope wrote: »

They made a remarkable recovery in 2016 even, going on that and the previous election.
I don't know if any or many of you on the politics thread are on Facebook or twitter, but there's a massive anti FG thing going on on both, if social media is anything to go by then I can easily see how there is a strong resentment being built up against them.
Young people can't afford houses or rent, the homeless crisis, the health service is absolutely chronic, the trying to commerate the Black and Tans, drugs and horrendous murders commonplace, I could go on and on.
They are in Govt and things seem to be out of hand all over the place.
So if you want an alternative it's either FF or the left.
FG have a massive massive job on their hands and a weak leader

Hiding behind technology or a username is easy enough and full of heightened bravado. Being forced to choose in real life is what adults do. They should take action and vote them out so but how many will bother?

Darc19

FG have definitely dropped and ff have moved up.
But certainly not at the levels in this poll

And SF at 19%???


Not a chance.

The Sunday times polls tend to be quite different from other polls.

Fr_Dougal

FF are keeping their mouths shut, no policies, zilch. Hurlers on the ditch again.

People are stupid.

lawred2

iebamm2580 wrote: »

**** ff, people have short memories. FG, flanagan in particular is a clown but at least they are planning on some tax cuts.

They have repeatedly promised tax cuts and delivered next to nothing for all those promises.

That 50k promise this time round was nothing short of insulting.

is_that_so

Underground wrote: »

You love to see it. Looks like Madigan might actually her seat in my constituency if this is accurate.

It's not, likely to be out by a bit. B&A not the best of polls and prone to exaggerating some party shares. I'd say both in the 25%-28% at present is a better prediction, with FF probably ahead.

CPTM

Bishop of hope wrote: »

They made a remarkable recovery in 2016 even, going on that and the previous election.
I don't know if any or many of you on the politics thread are on Facebook or twitter, but there's a massive anti FG thing going on on both, if social media is anything to go by then I can easily see how there is a strong resentment being built up against them.
Young people can't afford houses or rent, the homeless crisis, the health service is absolutely chronic, the trying to commerate the Black and Tans, drugs and horrendous murders commonplace, I could go on and on.
They are in Govt and things seem to be out of hand all over the place.
So if you want an alternative it's either FF or the left.
FG have a massive massive job on their hands and a weak leader

But FG has a massive debt to Europe because of FF's antics. Do you think FF would have gotten the abortion/marriage equality referendums over the line? I think they would have been too nervous about approaching the topics. At least Fine Gael aren't afraid to do things like that. I'm not even Fine Gael, I'll probably vote Green. But I am anti FF after what they did to us the last time.

McMurphy

FFs odds have now been slashed dramatically.

Most seats odds now at 1 - 4 on. For people not that familiar with odds that means if you bet on FF to return the most seats in this election you would get €1 back for every €4 you bet. If that bets successful.

Meanwhile FG are at 5 - 2 and as above, if you place a bet on FG returning more seats and it comes to fruition, then you would get €2.50 for every €1 you bet.

Each leader being made Taoiseach are as follows.

M.M 1 - 5 on.

Leo Varadkar, 3 - 1.

LostArt

Darc19 wrote: »

FG have definitely dropped and ff have moved up.
But certainly not at the levels in this poll

And SF at 19%???


Not a chance.

The Sunday times polls tend to be quite different from other polls.

samples of less than 1000 are generally pretty useless, but the size of this swing is striking. FF/Green government again is seriously depressing.

ChikiChiki

I remember absolutely despising FF for the mess they had us in by 2011. I was glad when FG took over.

But FG have showed themselves to be downright incompetent and contemptuous towards the people who voted them in. Uncaring and inccmpassionate to the people who need them most. They are a party of self servers.

I never though anyone could outdo FF in the dislikeability stakes. Well done FG.

McMurphy

ChikiChiki wrote: »

I remember absolutely despising FF for the mess they had us in by 2011. I was glad when FG took over.

But FG have showed themselves to be downright incompetent and contemptuous towards the people who voted them in. Uncaring and inccmpassionate to the people who need them most. They are a party of self servers.

I never though anyone could outdo FF in the dislikeability stakes. Well done FG.

Pretty much this.

golfball37

FG have made FF electable. What a waste of 9 years. Utterly depressing

namloc1980

TheValeyard wrote: »

FF at 32%! It's like everyone has forgotten this shower truly fcuked over the entire country. I'm no fan of FG either, but come on, how can anyone vote FF after the previous time they were in power!!

They got nearly 400k first preference votes in 2011 when the country was in the grip of the crisis, Troika and bailouts. Huge portions of this country would vote for FF no matter what. Some of them lent their vote to other parties the last few elections, but they were now back to vote FF like nothing ever happened.

SafeSurfer

Fine Gael have a history of embarrassing themselves and imploding. From the cringeworthy Twink sketch at the Fine Gael Ard Feish to the current deleted Benny Hill video, they have proved adept at shooting themselves in the foot.

Varadkar, Murphy, Harris. They simply come across as people completely devoid of empathy and personal warmth.

Bishop of hope

Darc19 wrote: »

FG have definitely dropped and ff have moved up.
But certainly not at the levels in this poll

And SF at 19%???


Not a chance.

The Sunday times polls tend to be quite different from other polls.

It's the first poll we've seen so far, but it doesent surprise me one bit.
If FG are reading it then it must surely wake something up in them or they could be like you and dismiss it, I wonder which will it be?

BENDYBINN

Taking the bulldozer to the homeless people was the last straw for most people......

Irish politics in a nutshell, all about what happened 100 years ago and nothing to do with modern day society.

On the bright side, at least this time around I'll know to sell at the peak.

McMurphy

Think things will get worse when Leo has to take part in live debates.

I am looking forward to him trying to defend housing/health on the national airwaves, and also hope someone asks him for his theory as to how Denis O'Briens always winning state contracts when his party is in govt, and how awarding him these contracts ends up with extremely costly enquiries.

Mobile phone.- enquiry and results still gathering dust.
Siteserv.- enquiry due to be concluded soon.
Broadband - who wants to bet there'll be an enquiry here too?

giveitholly

And Leo more interested in Harry and Meghan doesn't do Fine Gael any favours either,he is totally living in a bubble and that smirk he has constantly wouldn't endear him to many people

ddarcy

LostArt wrote: »

samples of less than 1000 are generally pretty useless, but the size of this swing is striking. FF/Green government again is seriously depressing.

That is totally incorrect. How the sample is created, is it stratified correctly, how are unknowns handled etc is what will tell of a poll is more accurate or not.

If looking at past polls by this company, they tend to have a positive bias to SF (so over estimate them, which aside from RedC is true of all polls here), a slight negative bias to FG (so underestimate them slightly) and probably what will worry you is it tends to have a negative bias to FF (so underestimated them at a higher rate than FG).

So if true FF could be on 34, FG 23, SF 16. The other caveat is timing, this really wasn’t done over the election start. I think it has the first Election Day campaigning only in it.

almostover

giveitholly wrote: »

And Leo more interested in Harry and Meghan doesn't do Fine Gael any favours either,he is totally living in a bubble and that smirk he has constantly wouldn't endear him to many people

FG picked the wrong leader after Enda Kenny!

almostover

What is most interesting about this opinion poll result is that FF have sat on the sidelines enabling FG policies for the duration of the last government and people believe FF to be a conduit for change in the next government.

FG and FF are very similar parties drawing votes from a very similar electoral base. Many people will flip their votes between these two parties based on who has cocked up less of late. Given it's almost 100 years since the civil war, FG and FF should bury the hatchet and amalgamate as a centrist party. At least then nobody is under the illusion that they are voting for change by voting FF after a FG government and vice versa.

As for the Greens.....don't get me started. It was them who pushed us towards diesel cars which are now making sh1t of the air quality in our cities. I can't stand the Greens and wouldn't dream of giving them even a transfer.

MarinersBlues

McMurphy wrote: »

FFs odds have now been slashed dramatically.

Most seats odds now at 1 - 4 on. For people not that familiar with odds that means if you bet on FF to return the most seats in this election you would get €1 back for every €4 you bet. If that bets successful.

Meanwhile FG are at 5 - 2 and as above, if you place a bet on FG returning more seats and it comes to fruition, then you would get €2.50 for every €1 you bet.

Each leader being made Taoiseach are as follows.

M.M 1 - 5 on.

Leo Varadkar, 3 - 1.

An easier way of looking at it might be, if you account for the in built profit margin:

1/4 ~ 77% chance
5/2 ~ 22% chance

1/5 ~ 78%
3/1 ~ 20%

What is even more interesting here is that the odds imply there is a chance MM will be Taoiseach without getting the most seats and conversely there is a chance Leo won't be Taoiseach even if FG get the most seats.

Looks like FF have done better work on securing potential coalition partners.

Bishop of hope

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Irish politics in a nutshell, all about what happened 100 years ago and nothing to do with modern day society.

On the bright side, at least this time around I'll know to sell at the peak.

Or the lack of current alternatives could be it too.
The Left has had our worst ever 10 years since the foundation of the state to convince people to change and give them a chance, but it hasn't happened, because most people just don't believe them.

RobAMerc

how a Michael Martin led party are at anything above 3% and a admittedly misguided RIC commemoration can make a party fall 12% shows me how immature the Irish voting public are. We deserve what we get. ( And it wont be good )

Arthur Daley

almostover wrote: »

FG and FF are very similar parties drawing votes from a very similar electoral base. Many people will flip their votes between these two parties based on who has cocked up less of late. Given it's almost 100 years since the civil war, FG and FF should bury the hatchet and amalgamate as a centrist party. At least then nobody is under the illusion that they are voting for change by voting FF after a FG government and vice versa.

As for the Greens.....don't get me started. It was them who pushed us towards diesel cars which are now making sh1t of the air quality in our cities. I can't stand the Greens and wouldn't dream of giving them even a transfer.

Yes the green party are responsible for all those diesels spewing filthy air into our environment. Including the diesel buses running up the m50 'out of service'. In particular Eamonn Ryan. Spoofers.

almostover

RobAMerc wrote: »

how a Michael Martin led party are at anything above 3% and a admittedly misguided RIC commemoration can make a party fall 12% shows me how immature the Irish voting public are. We deserve what we get. ( And it wont be good )

The thought of Micheal Martin being taoiseach is the ultimate insult. A man who sat idly by whilst the last FF government destroyed the economy through greed and mismanagement and who has the personality and charisma of a wet dish cloth. Jesus wept! Having said that Leo V has been abysmal as taoiseach. Completely aloof and out of touch.

markodaly

Bishop of hope wrote: »

I don't know if any or many of you on the politics thread are on Facebook or twitter, but there's a massive anti FG thing going on on both, if social media is anything to go by then I can easily see how there is a strong resentment being built up against them.

Social media is a cesspit of angry yobbos and idiots.
I wouldn't pay too much head into what is said there.

Sleeper12

iebamm2580 wrote:

**** ff, people have short memories. FG, flanagan in particular is a clown but at least they are planning on some tax cuts.

It depends on how long memory you want to have. Go back far enough and you will see FF created the booming economy in the first place before the collapse.

As for the poll, I think it was a snapshot of the mood of the nation at the time of the Black and Tans saga. It did show how out of touch FG are with the common man on the street but I can't see it having a major impact on the election result. If FG get a hammering I'd like to think that it will be for homelessness/housing crisis that they have ignored or the billions of our money that they have been so reckless with like Irish Water, children's hospital, rural broadband etc.

Breakerz

Not really surprising. The arrogance of Flanagan, Leo, Murphy etc will cost them dearly. Every time Flanagan opens his mouth FG will lose voters. The RIC commemoration shows how out of touch the man is.

Bishop of hope

markodaly wrote: »

Social media is a cesspit of angry yobbos and idiots.
I wouldn't pay too much head into what is said there.

You're great.
What are you posting on?

Edit, not calling you any of what you posted, but is boards.ie not social media?

is_that_so

MarinersBlues wrote: »

An easier way of looking at it might be, if you account for the in built profit margin:

1/4 ~ 77% chance
5/2 ~ 22% chance

1/5 ~ 78%
3/1 ~ 20%

What is even more interesting here is that the odds imply there is a chance MM will be Taoiseach without getting the most seats and conversely there is a chance Leo won't be Taoiseach even if FG get the most seats.

Looks like FF have done better work on securing potential coalition partners.

Nobody can say whether they have or not nor for FG. That horsetrading comes after the election. No party with any hope of getting seats will use that C word until then. The FF track record is to swallow juniors partners and spit them out.
Potential partners will be aware of that and may or should drive a harder bargain.

is_that_so

Bishop of hope wrote: »

You're great.
What are you posting on?

Edit, not calling you any of what you posted, but is boards.ie not social media?

It is but we are restricted in what we can do or say. Social media tends to be shorthand for Twitter and FB, which is exactly as described.

ChikiChiki

golfball37 wrote: »

FG have made FF electable. What a waste of 9 years. Utterly depressing

Exactly and they only have themselves to blame.