GE2020

Brussels Sprout

5 seats, all of the sitting deputies are running again.

• Deputy Simon Harris (Fine Gael),
• Deputy Andrew Doyle (Fine Gael),
• Billy Timmins (Fine Gael),
• Deputy Pat Casey (Fianna Fáil),
• Deputy Stephen Donnelly (Fianna Fáil),
• Deputy John Brady (Sinn Féin),
• Cllr. Paul O’Brien (Labour Party),
• Cllr. Jennifer Whitmore (Social Democrats),
• Sharon Briggs (People Before Profit),
• Cllr. Steven Matthews (Green Party),
• Seamus Connor (Aontu),
• Eileen Gunning (National Party),
• Cllr. Joe Behan (Independent),
• Cllr John Snell (Independent),
• Charlie Keddy (Independent),
• Daragh Fitzgerald (Independent),
• John Larkin (Independent)

Who's most likely to lose their seat, if any, and who's in with a shot of replacing them?

Will negative headlines around his management of the health portfolio damage Simon Harris's vote getting ability?

Peckham

Expected Donnelly to struggle, but if FF doing as well as today's poll suggests then they should hold both seats.

If either FF seat is lost you'd presume Matthews will take it. Limited profile outside Bray may hurt him, but should clean up on transfers.

Harris and Doyle both as safe as houses.

Brady to top the poll?

Annasopra

Peckham wrote: »

Expected Donnelly to struggle, but if FF doing as well as today's poll suggests then they should hold both seats.

If either FF seat is lost you'd presume Matthews will take it. Limited profile outside Bray may hurt him, but should clean up on transfers.

Harris and Doyle both as safe as houses.

Brady to top the poll?

I REALLY doubt Brady will top the poll.

SF in 2014 won 6 local election seats. SF in 2019 won 2. A lot of their former members and supporters will be supporting Cllr John Snell and still pissed off at how they treated Cllr Gerry O'Neill and Former Cllrs Rossa Murray and Oliver O'Brien.

He could be in potential trouble and at risk of losing his seat if there is a national swing away from them.

Annasopra

I think

Harris safe
Casey safe

Timmins to edge ahead of Doyle

Group of death 2 seats between Brady, Doyle, Donnelly, Matthews, Whitmore. O'Brien and Behan have an outside but doubtful shot in this group 2.

sumo12

Donnelly, Harris, Doyle safe as houses. Scrap for the rest after that....

loyatemu

Last time out: https://electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2016&cons=235

Brady looks safe enough, he nearly had a full quota in 2016 and SF in general look like they'll be around the same level as then.

FF: Donnelly + Casey had 1.8 quotas between them. Donnelly may lose some personal support due to his defection but if the swing to FF is as strong as yesterday's poll suggests it should get them both over the line.

The 3 FG candidates had 1.95 quotas, with not much between Doyle and Timmins (who was with Renua in 2016 but has a strong personal base in the wild west). A bad day could see them down to 1 TD, which of them gets it is anyone's guess, though Harris's high profile might favour him.

The Greens were a long way from a seat in 2016, whilst the SDs seat was heavily built on Donnelly's personal support from 2011, I don't know how much of that will transfer to Whitmore. They'll both be hoping that Donnelly's support is an "anyone but FF/FG" seat that could transfer to one of them (there was previously a solid Labour seat in Wicklow, though Brady has poached a chunk of that vote).

Annasopra

sumo12 wrote: »

Donnelly, Harris, Doyle safe as houses. Scrap for the rest after that....

Cant agree with Donnelly or Doyle

Donnelly has lot many many votes because of moving from independent to sds to independent to ff.

Doyle only scraped in last time and will be squeezed put by Timmins in the West and Casey and O'Brien in the East.

sumo12

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

Cant agree with Donnelly or Doyle

Donnelly has lot many many votes because of moving from independent to sds to independent to ff.

Doyle only scraped in last time and will be squeezed put by Timmins in the West and Casey and O'Brien in the East.

Fair comments. I'll change my "safe as houses" to "I would expect"

Forgot about Timmins temporary Renua stupidity last time out.... yes he has good support.

Depends how big the "protest" vote is but there are so many options for the protest vote that it will dilute the opportunity for (m)any of them to get quota.

Working class heroes

I’m hearing the recent polls has increased the possibility of a third FF. candidate.
Pat Kennedy......
Polled extremely well in the locals. He is rural but if pushed himself as an Arklow candidate he would out poll his wife’s Uncle, Pat Casey.

Annasopra

Working class heroes wrote: »

I’m hearing the recent polls has increased the possibility of a third FF. candidate.
Pat Kennedy......
Polled extremely well in the locals. He is rural but if pushed himself as an Arklow candidate he would out poll his wife’s Uncle, Pat Casey.

I dont think he would outpoll Pat Casey. They'd be mad to run 3. That poll is not reliable.

Arthur Daley

Wonder where Donnelly will turn up next election. Jeez he's some spoofer.

Expect FG and SF vote to be down on 2016. So 2 FG seats and the 1 SF not guaranteed.

Annasopra

And Valerie Cox enters the race

zoobizoo

Vote Keddy No. 1

loyatemu

zoobizoo wrote: »

Vote Keddy No. 1

this could be his year!

murpho999

I wonder about Donnelly, voted for him last time but lost respect for him for joining FF and will not be voting for him.

I think a lot of his voters may feel the same but some will stay with him and hardcore FF will vote for him.

Working class heroes

murpho999 wrote: »

I wonder about Donnelly, voted for him last time but lost respect for him for joining FF and will not be voting for him.

I think a lot of his voters may feel the same but some will stay with him and hardcore FF will vote for him.

Yep. I’d imagine he did his homework before he went into the tent. I think one will balance out the other.

I think FG running three horses is a mistake. Two candidates would almost certainly result in two seats. Harris is safe regardless and Doyle is a proven campaigner. With Timmons running I predict a similar result to what happened to SF in Donegal last time out.

I’ll make my overall prediction when the deadline passes tomorrow.

Peckham

Now at 20 declared candidates.

Not quite at the 2011 level (24 candidates), but still more candidates than any other constituency.

Peckham

Wouldn't fancy being listed at the end of that ballot paper as it trails off the little counter in the polling booth.

Helps the incumbents as their names are all very early in the alphabet!

loyatemu

Working class heroes wrote: »

I think FG running three horses is a mistake. Two candidates would almost certainly result in two seats. Harris is safe regardless and Doyle is a proven campaigner. With Timmons running I predict a similar result to what happened to SF in Donegal last time out.

they're obviously going to run the 2 incumbents, I guess they feel having Timmins on the ticket boosts their votes in West Wicklow, even if he's a splitter (I must have missed him rejoining FG).

Working class heroes

loyatemu wrote: »

they're obviously going to run the 2 incumbents, I guess they feel having Timmins on the ticket boosts their votes in West Wicklow, even if he's a splitter (I must have missed him rejoining FG).

Very low key alright.

On another note Valerie Cox is running, apparently.

Annasopra

Full list of 20 candidates

-Joe Behan (Independent/Non-Party)
-John Brady (Sinn Fein)
-Sharon Briggs (Solidarity-People Before Profit)
-Pat Casey (Fianna Fail)
-Seamus Connor (Aontu)
-Valerie Cox (Independent/Non-Party)
-Stephen Donnelly (Fianna Fail)
-Andrew Doyle (Fine Gael)
-Tom Dunne (Independent/Non-Party)
- Anthony Fitzgerald (Independent/Non-Party)
-Eileen Gunning (The National Party)
-Simon Harris (Fine Gael)
-Charlie Keddy (Independent/Non-Party)
-William King (Independent/Non-Party)
-John Larkin (Independent/Non-Party)
-Steven Matthews (Green Party-Comhaontas Glas)
-Paul O'Brien (The Labour Party)
-John Snell (Independent/Non-Party)
-Billy Timmins (Fine Gael)
-Jennifer Whitmore (Social Democrats)

recyclops

this may be of interest of a few here, i will be popping down myself for sure

https://www.eventbrite.ie/e/ge2020-wicklow-speaks-tickets-91135547877

Mortelaro

Here's my prediction for the top of the 1st count
Jennifer Whitmore to take Andrew Doyle's seat
As is for the other four

1 casey FF
2.Harris FG
3 Brady SF
4 Donnelly FF
5 Whitmore SD
6 Timmins FG
7 valerie Cox IND
8 Doyle FG

loyatemu

Mortelaro wrote: »

Here's my prediction for the top of the 1st count
Jennifer Whitmore to take Andrew Doyle's seat
As is for the other four

1 casey FF
2.Harris FG
3 Brady SF
4 Donnelly FF
5 Whitmore SD
6 Timmins FG
7 valerie Cox IND
8 Doyle FG

you really think Casey will top the poll? There's certainly a guaranteed FF seat, and probably 2 if the backlash against Donnelly isn't too strong, but I think they'll be evenly split.

Brady to top the poll; also I'd be surprised if all 3 FG candidates outpoll the Greens.

Annasopra

I think now that Brady will top the poll.

I think Brady and Harris are safe and after that the 3 seats are probably Casey, Whitmore and Timmins though Doyle, Donnelly are in that mix and Behan, Snell, Cox, O'Brien, Matthews in that mix with a more outside chance.

Peckham

Ivan Yates podcast, Calling It, is predicting...

Casey, Brady and Harris safe as houses.

Cox for the 4th seat

Donnelly to beat Doyle for final seat

murpho999

I think Steven Matthews for the Greens might be fighting for the final seat.

2011

Here is my prediction:

1 Brady SF
2 casey FF
3 Donnely FF
4 Timmons FG
5 Harris FG
6 Whitmore SD
7 Doyle FG
8 Cox IND

Maybe the 2 FG will be reversed.

I don’t vote SF myself but I see them gaining more and more support.

hometruths

Peckham wrote: »

Ivan Yates podcast, Calling It, is predicting...

Casey, Brady and Harris safe as houses.

Cox for the 4th seat

Donnelly to beat Doyle for final seat

I'm going to agree with 1, 2 and 3, say Whitmore for 4th seat, and Cox for 5th.

Mortelaro

Valerie is somewhat of a dark horse alright
I do think Jennifer Whitmore is in with a strong chance
Timmins will probably take Doyle's seat

Peckham

Can't see how Whitmore makes the cut. Huge support in Greystones (but competing with Harris and Donnelly for the local vote), but limited profile outside of there.

I've heard nothing from Cox, but guess I'm not her target voter!

hometruths

Peckham wrote: »

Can't see how Whitmore makes the cut. Huge support in Greystones (but competing with Harris and Donnelly for the local vote), but limited profile outside of there.

I've heard nothing from Cox, but guess I'm not her target voter!

Fair point on her profile beyond Greystones, but I think she will wipe the floor with Donnelly in terms of local Greystones votes!

Mortelaro

Peckham wrote: »

Can't see how Whitmore makes the cut. Huge support in Greystones (but competing with Harris and Donnelly for the local vote), but limited profile outside of there.

I've heard nothing from Cox, but guess I'm not her target voter!

Whitmore was canvassing in Arklow with a high profile independent down there
That will help

Annasopra

Whitmore has built up a profile in Bray and Arklow and West Wicklow a bit too. She is definitely a strong contender.

Working class heroes

For what it’s worth here are my picks.
The first 3 in will be Brady, Donnelly, and Harris in that order.

The last two are tough to call.
A lot of commentary doing the rounds that Casey will post higher than Donnelly.
This is just silly buggers. But he should get in regardless. So fourth seat to Casey.
For the last seat we will have a 5/6 way dog fight.
Whitmore, Doyle, Timmons, Cox, Mathews. However, I’m going to give the last seat to Snell. He is very popular around the Wicklow/Rathnew/Ashford area. He is going to pick up a lot of traditional Labour voters as they haven’t a strong candidate, as a former Shinner he can still ride that wave and I believe he is doing well on the Arklow doorsteps.

Brady
Donnelly
Harris
Casey
Snell

Annasopra

Working class heroes wrote: »

For what it’s worth here are my picks.
The first 3 in will be Brady, Donnelly, and Harris in that order.

The last two are tough to call.
A lot of commentary doing the rounds that Casey will post higher than Donnelly.
This is just silly buggers. But he should get in regardless. So fourth seat to Casey.
For the last seat we will have a 5/6 way dog fight.
Whitmore, Doyle, Timmons, Cox, Mathews. However, I’m going to give the last seat to Snell. He is very popular around the Wicklow/Rathnew/Ashford area. He is going to pick up a lot of traditional Labour voters as they haven’t a strong candidate, as a former Shinner he can still ride that wave and I believe he is doing well on the Arklow doorsteps.

Brady
Donnelly
Harris
Casey
Snell

Not a chance Donnelly will outpoll Casey and I cant see Snell taking a seat either. The Wicklow/Rathnew/Ashford will be split between Labour and Snell.

Working class heroes

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

Not a chance Donnelly will outpoll Casey and I cant see Snell taking a seat either. The Wicklow/Rathnew/Ashford will be split between Labour and Snell.

Of course this is all just my opinion but I think he will. I’ve been involved in a few campaigns in the area and I’m getting the sense he has reached his limit, vote wise.

Also the fact that you didn’t name check the Labour candidate (O’Brien) says a lot about his profile. Snell is a lot more popular in that area.

Again all this is just my opinion, I could be as far out as Kish Lighthouse.

Doodah7

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

Not a chance Donnelly will outpoll Casey and I cant see Snell taking a seat either. The Wicklow/Rathnew/Ashford will be split between Labour and Snell.

This. Brady is a cert for a SF seat, Casey for a FF one and Harris for FG and in that order too. The other two seats will be an absolute dogfight with Cox, Donnelly, Doyle, Timmins and Whitmore duking it out. As always, it will ultimately depend on transfers with Cox likely to pick some up due to profile (TV/Radio), female, independent and campaigning on age issues (pension etc.). However first preferences might hurt her.

For Donnelly it will depend on how much over the quota Casey will be to help along with whichever non-left candidate is eliminated first as well as how far in the tide comes for FF.

Timmins may have age against him and leaving and returning to FG but has geography/name recognition on his side.

Doyle will need Timmins to be eliminated first if he is to have a chance and hoover up his transfers which don't necessarily always cross the Wicklow mountains.

Whitmore will get c. 4000 first preferences but I'm not sure how transfer friendly she is and is in a very crowded field geographically.

As for Snell, I don't think has the profile this time out and may need to work in the background for another 4/5 years.

In summary: Brady, Casey, Higgins, Cox and Doyle (or Donnelly!).

Working class heroes

Can I ask why people think Casey will our poll Donnelly?

loyatemu

Donnelly received over twice the votes of Casey in 2016. A lot depends on how the FF vote holds up overall but Casey is something of a non-entity outside his core area, whereas Donnelly (for better and worse) is on TV all the time. Donnelly will certainly lose votes for his defection, but I don't see any reason why Casey will suddenly shoot up the polls.

Working class heroes

Yates about to discuss Wicklow now.

Peckham

Both Donnelly-backed candidates failed to get elected in Bray in the locals, with one of the two "independent FF" candidates getting elected and the other missing out by 1 vote!

The FF candidate in Greystones who I think is most closely aligned with him Greystones didn't get elected.

That's a big indicator of his support in north Wicklow.

hometruths

Peckham wrote: »

Both Donnelly-backed candidates failed to get elected in Bray in the locals, with one of the two "independent FF" candidates getting elected and the other missing out by 1 vote!

The FF candidate in Greystones who I think is most closely aligned with him Greystones didn't get elected.

That's a big indicator of his support in north Wicklow.

I agree. He got elected in to the dail in the first place largely thanks to big local support in Greystones, I think that support is non existent now and I can’t imagine he’s picked up support in Arklow or Baltinglass to compensate.

Annasopra

Working class heroes wrote: »

Can I ask why people think Casey will our poll Donnelly?

Because Donnelly lost a massive amount of support switching from SDs to Indo to FF. His previous voters are very angry with him. It has happened where people top the poll and subsequently lose. He supported 4 candidates in the local elections and all performed badly. The Bray FF party is in disarray.

dogmatix

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

Because Donnelly lost a massive amount of support switching from SDs to Indo to FF. His previous voters are very angry with him. It has happened where people top the poll and subsequently lose. He supported 4 candidates in the local elections and all performed badly. The Bray FF party is in disarray.

This. I voted Donnelly #1 in 2016 and was very much more then a little annoyed that he used my vote to gift FF a second seat in Wicklow. I'd sooner vote John Brady then give Donnelly another chance and since I think John Brady is a dubious creep, that is saying something.

Also, his election posters are doing him no favours. It features a strange red fuzz on his chin does not go well with his pointed bald pate. Makes him look like a second rate bond villain or an extra from "the hills have eyes" (1977 version).

Sheep breeder

loyatemu wrote: »

Donnelly received over twice the votes of Casey in 2016. A lot depends on how the FF vote holds up overall but Casey is something of a non-entity outside his core area, whereas Donnelly (for better and worse) is on TV all the time. Donnelly will certainly lose votes for his defection, but I don't see any reason why Casey will suddenly shoot up the polls.

Casey has done a lot of local work in the south of the county and has an office in Arklow, in an area that hasn’t had no TD in a long time and has the support of the local councillors and the brother in law on the Arklow council and is active in west Wicklow. Casey is active in all sports circles in the county. Donnelly has not done anything outside Greystones and is not seen around the county.
Don’t rule John Snell out, he has support in west Wicklow with other ex sinner councillors and is involved with sports in the county.
Doyle and Timmons are old and have not performed enough, Doyle has done nothing for the biggest problem for farmers in Wicklow the TB problem and farmers will vote away from Doyle.

zoobizoo

dogmatix wrote: »

I think John Brady is a dubious creep ).

How come?

dogmatix

zoobizoo wrote: »

How come?

Well there was the issue about the 3 councillors expelled back in 2017. That would be more of a main party issue failure but I felt Brady was placing party loyalties over the "common good". But that's pretty much the standard behaviour with SinnFein. But as for the real reason I don’t like Brady – cannot say but if anyone is here from lott lane in Kilcoole you might understand.

2011

dogmatix wrote: »

But as for the real reason I don’t like Brady – cannot say but if anyone is here from lott lane in Kilcoole you might understand.

What do you mean??

Mortelaro

Peckham wrote: »

Both Donnelly-backed candidates failed to get elected in Bray in the locals, with one of the two "independent FF" candidates getting elected and the other missing out by 1 vote!

The FF candidate in Greystones who I think is most closely aligned with him Greystones didn't get elected.

That's a big indicator of his support in north Wicklow.

Regarding Donnelly, I've heard a lot of local FF in the north of the county refused to canvass for him,they were pushing Casey instead
Allied to that his Facebook is littered with negative feedback and as facebook is real people not a troll factory like twitter or the journal,that would be concerning

Valerie Cox will be interesting, she's campaigning strong and her cohort will vote

Working class heroes

Mortelaro wrote: »

Regarding Donnelly, I've heard a lot of local FF in the north of the county refused to canvass for him,they were pushing Casey instead
Allied to that his Facebook is littered with negative feedback and as facebook is real people not a troll factory like twitter or the journal,that would be concerning

Valerie Cox will be interesting, she's campaigning strong and her cohort will vote

Facebook is littered with people who don’t bother voting.