410k jobs gone in Germany because of move to electric cars

unkel

And that's just jobs lost before 2030. Likely well over a million jobs in the EU. And of course even bigger job losses will occur after 2030 as internal combustion cars will no longer be sold in most countries, and there will be far less need for mechanics (as there is very little maintenance on electric cars) or people working in the car parts industry

Linky


A good time for anyone working in the industry to reflect on their role and how they can move with the times. I spoke to a few mechanics in recent times, some even in back street garages, and they all know the writing is on the wall.

Idbatterim

Id say a lot of people who bought or buy tesla, would have previously bought "premium" german cars. That would account for some of it..

mechanics etc would be technically minded and physical enough in general. You would think that they could move to construction related roles for a start... or that with less people training to be mechanics, that they might opt for trades, like plumbers, electricians, plasterers etc. Which there is a shortage of

unkel

There will of course be a significant need for re-trained mechanics. In future working on the EV (high voltage) end of the cars. Not just for pure EVs but for some time to come for hybrids, plug in hybrid electric cars and pure EVs. Diagnostics of the EV system, replacing inverters, converters, rectifiers, refurbishing batteries, replacing motors, etc. My own favourite garage has already been converting towards specialising in cars with batteries for at least the last 5 years.

Toyotafanboi

An interesting topic!

unkel wrote: »

A good time for anyone working in the industry to reflect on their role and how they can move with the times.

I'd certainly agree with that.

I think with the progression of electric cars it will effect non franchise operations a lot sooner that it will franchise dealers, with the likes of component protection and long battery and electric drive warrants on most models.

I think there will be a steady need for mechanics mechelectricians well into the future. Obviously a great deal of bread and butter service work will be lost but there is an opportunity to revise and focus on other elements of service work that wont change, tyres, wipers, suspension, brakes to an extent, air con work, battery cooling systems etc.

An interesting consideration aswell is that an awful lot of the work (haven't done any stats, but would love to) that main dealers or possibly all workshops do outside of engine services are items that would and could fail in an EV anyway. The vast majority of issue we would see are faults with control systems, wiring faults, control units, accessories and features failing etc, internal engine work is actually scarce enough already and I'd imagine suspension work will stay similar too.

The writing is probably on the wall at factory level, but I dont know is that to be expected anyway, like the guy who sticks the badge on the bonnet and buffs it with the white glove, a robot can do that :pac: so long as VW keep the currywurst plant going we'll be ok.

Edit: I suppose for what little EV's are on the road, we already see a reasonable amount of component failure too, drive motors, inverters and so on.

unkel

Toyotafanboi wrote: »

I think with the progression of electric cars it will effect non franchise operations a lot sooner that it will franchise dealers

That's presuming all the main car makers will survive. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the worlds top 10 from today will no longer exist by 2030.

I feel that non-franchise dealers could have the flexibility and independence to move on a lot quicker

Wibbs

unkel wrote: »

That's presuming all the main car makers will survive. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the worlds top 10 from today will no longer exist by 2030.

Why though? They're all making leccy cars or have them in the pipeline. They have manufacturing capacity and distribution networks that an "independent" like Tesla could only dream off

Toyotafanboi

unkel wrote: »

That's presuming all the main car makers will survive. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the worlds top 10 from today will no longer exist by 2030.

I often think that myself, or something along those lines, it's hard to explain. I think a lot of the current big players will probably have the ability to reinvent their brands towards EV given the money, tooling and experience they already have available to them but a lot of the smaller brands who are struggling for market at the moment, will be on their knees pretty soon.

You'd have to be surprised if the likes of Ford, Toyota, Hyundai/ Kia, VAG group or PSA couldn't ride this out by playing their cards even half right. I do think 2030 is ambitious locally though.

It'll be somewhat like phones, 10-15 years ago there was so many different brands available, now it's basically Samsung, Huawei or Apple in the mainstream, a lot of smaller brands gone completely and one or two others clinging on like Sony.

unkel

Wibbs wrote: »

Why though? They're all making leccy cars or have them in the pipeline. They have manufacturing capacity and distribution networks that an "independent" like Tesla could only dream off

Why did Nokia and Kodak happen? They made smart phones and digital cameras towards the end. Too little too late though. Inertia of the big company that's on top of their game (or so it thought). Things can turn fairly quickly during a major disruption of an industry

Look at BMW. Back in 2013/2014 they were right at the top, one of the most advanced in EV development of the big players. Yet their newly appointed CEO wasn't convinced things would go EV, so he scrapped the program and concentrated on diesels. Their highly skilled EV team scattered and now, just 6/7 years later, BMW is a laggard. My favourite make of all time, and if they don't get their act together very quickly, they'll be gone. Thankfully they seem to have realised this and they sacked above CEO a few months ago.

Dravokivich

They sell cars all over the world. I'd be very surprised if the majority of production will shift to EV within 10 years.

wcooba

Do you really think EU or Germany will allow that to happen? Automotive industry accounts for ~6% of EU employment - this is just manufacturing, excluding dealership networks, independent garages, spare parts market etc...

Also thinking that majority of cars in 2030 will be electric is simply naive. Most of the countries would struggle with electricity production if any massive adoption happens. And Germany is just about to close all their nuclear plants...

d15ude

"410k jobs gone in Germany because of move to electric cars"

The jobs are not gone, the article says that they COULD be gone.
Bit of a difference imho.

If there really will be a massive shift to elctric, than a lot of new infractructre is needed. So old jobs might go, new jobs will come.

kaahooters

the jobs loss isnt an issue, most of it will be people retiring.

Interslice

kaahooters wrote: »

the jobs loss isnt an issue, most of it will be people retiring.

Exactly this. New mechanics will be trained in the tech and fill those jobs mostly in main dealers. I reckon people will hold onto their old cars alot longer if this 2030 thing hits. New car sales will plumit creating jobs for traditional mechanics. Maybe after 2050 you'd be worried.. bringing your car to the drivein at google to get it repaired by robots at that stage!

peasant

d15ude wrote: »

If there really will be a massive shift to elctric, than a lot of new infractructre is needed. So old jobs might go, new jobs will come.

Not quite as simple...the above might be applicable to jobs that deal with the finished product ...car makers and mechanics and the like. The real problem lies in the supply chain.
There is a huge amount of companies and jobs in highly specialised suppliers. These can't just fix a plug to their parts and call them "electric". Things like engine parts, injection systems, seals, all the oily bits basically.
Here parts, skills and in the end jobs simply will be no longer needed and lost with little chance of diversifying.

kyote00

Ahem..... Nokia is still alive and well ....

It's the third biggest telco equipment provider in world behind Ericsson and Huawei

That said, the cosolidation of the telco market over the last 20 years might be a very good indicator for the car industry .....

Today, Nokia is actually an amalgem of Alcatel(French), Lucent(US) and Nokia (Finland) - doesnt make handsets (it sold the business and Nokia name to HMD about 6 years ago)

Telco has seen massive consolidation of equipment providers and telco service providers -> this was driven by the 'commoditization' effect -> there was little or no profit margin in telco hardware and so death or consolidation is the only option....

Tesla have done a great job developing the EV market but that does not mean that will dominate in the future....

So when will EV manufactoring reach 'commodity' threshold ?

unkel wrote: »

Why did Nokia and Kodak happen? They made smart phones and digital cameras towards the end. Too little too late though. Inertia of the big company that's on top of their game (or so it thought). Things can turn fairly quickly during a major disruption of an industry

Look at BMW. Back in 2013/2014 they were right at the top, one of the most advanced in EV development of the big players. Yet their newly appointed CEO wasn't convinced things would go EV, so he scrapped the program and concentrated on diesels. Their highly skilled EV team scattered and now, just 6/7 years later, BMW is a laggard. My favourite make of all time, and if they don't get their act together very quickly, they'll be gone. Thankfully they seem to have realised this and they sacked above CEO a few months ago.

Markcheese

It's change ... And that happens ,for the car manufacturers it's actually pretty good, there's still a huge demand for cars.... It's all going to depend on wether the money's in cars or in batteries and motors?
For the engine component and gearbox guys maybe not so great ...

fricatus

wcooba wrote: »

Also thinking that majority of cars in 2030 will be electric is simply naive. Most of the countries would struggle with electricity production if any massive adoption happens. And Germany is just about to close all their nuclear plants...

Remember that refining petrol uses a load of electricity, enough to move an EV the same distance as a given quantity of petrol does.

wcooba

fricatus wrote: »

Remember that refining petrol uses a load of electricity, enough to move an EV the same distance as a given quantity of petrol does.

you are missing few things here:

1. most of the oil is refined outside of EU - how is it going to help with the energy balance here?
2. even if all cars are replaced by EVs - oil will still need to be refined to keep ships & planes going. We will still need plastics, asphalt or detergents?
3. battery production does require large amount of energy too - although this most likely won't be a local problem

kirving

wcooba wrote: »

Do you really think EU or Germany will allow that to happen? Automotive industry accounts for ~6% of EU employment - this is just manufacturing, excluding dealership networks, independent garages, spare parts market etc...

Agreed, electrification is not going to cause job losses to the scale as the industrial revolution did to weaving or farming.

I work in automotive manufacturing and while there have been step changes in product design and efficiencies of equipment, for the most part this has lead to greater manufacturing output while more or less maintaining employment figures. These efficiencies have been happening for a long time anyway with very little noise or drastic job losses.

Every part in a modern car is already being engineered to drive out at much cost as possible, and it's not really affecting economies terribly much. Take wiring for example, 10 years ago you might have 8 cores and two connectors going to a part, now it can be down to a single core handling power and data.

For the most part, the production lines for ICE and batteries/motors are already heavily automated anyway, so I can't see labour rates being all that different to now when the line is up and running.

I've been in German factories where hundreds of engineers, technicians and every trade you can think of have been building new production lines that are dedicated to electrification. I guess it can be hard to see the wood for the trees sometimes, but from my point of view, the move to electrification will do nothing but good for the industry in the medium term.

A few hiccups along the way are to be expected while people take time to retrain, but the Germans are more than able to handle that.

The best part about their whole economy, is that you can join a big OEM as a machine operator, and be trained to Engineering level as a matter of course, and be paid as such.

I can't find the article now, but the jist of it was that Ireland has a massive wage disparity between those who are college educated and those who have done a trade. In Germany, that gap is basically zero. Their entire workforce is exceptionally well educated, adaptable, and paid as such. They won't be too long in making a success of the electric car industry.

Isambard

traditional mechanical skills will still be needed for brakes, suspension and all manner of things. I can't but see there is a bit of scaremongering going on. Of course mechanics will need new skills but that should be no problem.

unkel

Isambard wrote: »

traditional mechanical skills will still be needed for brakes, suspension and all manner of things. I can't but see there is a bit of scaremongering going on. Of course mechanics will need new skills but that should be no problem.

Of course. Suspension will be the same, if not more work as EVs are heavier.

Brakes, not quite. I saw an NCT test of the very heavy Tesla Model S. It had 400k km on the clock. The original brake disks were half worn and the car was only on its second set of pads.

EVs will last a lot longer than ICE cars though, so probably a bit of catching up to do in maintenance in their later years. Inverters and the like don't last forever

Isambard

wcooba wrote: »

you are missing few things here:

1. most of the oil is refined outside of EU - how is it going to help with the energy balance here?
2. even if all cars are replaced by EVs - oil will still need to be refined to keep ships & planes going. We will still need plastics, asphalt or detergents?
3. battery production does require large amount of energy too - although this most likely won't be a local problem

i think most of our oil products are refined within the EU aren't they?

ELM327

Also interesting to note that PHEV will still be sold after 2030, it's a ban on cars without a plug. Still a need for mechanics for the ICE side of things

We won't be predominantly BEV for years after 2030. Until then, BEV will be one option alongside Petrol, Diesel, LPG, CNG etc as fuels.

wcooba

Isambard wrote: »

i think most of our oil products are refined within the EU aren't they?

I think it's true for petrol but not for diesel (or kerosene).

Del2005

The German's, American's, Japanese and all the other traditional car manufacturers have a bigger risk of the Chinese doing to them what the Japanese did to the European motorcycle manufacturers in the 70s than worry about what makes the vehicle move. They laughed when they first came into the market but destroyed the local manufacturers and its only in the last few years that the Japanese aren't dominant.

Isambard

wcooba wrote: »

I think it's true for petrol but not for diesel (or kerosene).

i'm no expert but I though all oil product were a result of the same refining process, I think it's called a crude oil cracker or somesuch.

galwaytt

sorry, but no.

I'd file this in the same category as "PC's will drive the the paperless office". World copier paper consumption is up 30% from 2007-2017.....

Or, "Robots will take all our jobs". Meh. The amount of jobs in this economy that are displaceable by robots is far less than you think....

unkel

galwaytt wrote: »

The amount of jobs in this economy that are displaceable by robots is far less than you think....

Do you think? How many taxi drivers, truck drivers, bus drivers and delivery drivers are there in the western world and how many will there be in 20-30 years time?

kaahooters

unkel wrote: »

Do you think? How many taxi drivers, truck drivers, bus drivers and delivery drivers are there in the western world and how many will there be in 20-30 years time?

solicitors, judges, accountants, banking jobs, any job that isnt public facing and has a set ruleset will be gone in the next 10 - 15 years with automation.

but, the aging population will hide a good chunk of this, "naturally" taking out , i think its 25%, of the workforce in the same time period.

unkel

kaahooters wrote: »

solicitors, judges, accountants, banking jobs, any job that isnt public facing and has a set ruleset will be gone in the next 10 - 15 years with automation.

And don't forget GPs. Possibly the first large group to go. I don't think being public facing makes much of a difference. Remember what ATMs did from 30-40 years ago?

wcooba

unkel wrote: »

And don't forget GPs. Possibly the first large group to go. I don't think being public facing makes much of a difference. Remember what ATMs did from 30-40 years ago?

While a lot of mentioned professions could be replaced by AI (now or in not so distant future) - they probably won't. The reason is simple: liability. It's unlikely software companies will undertake that risk - especially with existing claim culture...

Wibbs

If it can be shown that AI GPs for example are more accurate in their diagnosis than human GPs(and IIRC this has been shown in a couple of studies), but that there will always be some errors and you have to sign off on an agreement to that effect(like any software) then AI might actually drop the liability risk. The risk would be spread more widely too, a few software packages, versus millions of GP's worldwide. It's also likely national medical organisations would shoulder much of the risk involved.

Interslice

unkel wrote: »

Do you think? How many taxi drivers, truck drivers, bus drivers and delivery drivers are there in the western world and how many will there be in 20-30 years time?

Question for you unkel. Hypothetically would you time travel 20 years forward with your family and get into an automonous leaf(no driver safety controls) and do a 2 hour lap of dublin city and m50 made of entirely of automonous vehicles, trucks buses the whole lot, with no safety drivers at rush hour? Would you put your life in the hands of the tech advancing sufficiently to survive?

the.red.baron

you boys should go back and watch a bit of tomorrows world before you start making predictions about 30s time


we will all be living in twig huts


that's my prediction


my fridge still isn't connected to the world wide web for feck sake


sort that out first


energy crisis is where its at for me

the.red.baron

Wibbs wrote: »

If it can be shown that AI GPs for example are more accurate in their diagnosis than human GPs(and IIRC this has been shown in a couple of studies), but that there will always be some errors and you have to sign off on an agreement to that effect(like any software) then AI might actually drop the liability risk. The risk would be spread more widely too, a few software packages, versus millions of GP's worldwide. It's also likely national medical organisations would shoulder much of the risk involved.

the diagnosis is always cancer or superaids though


so they are bound to be right some of the time


the health industry cant even manage to do a few smear tests correctly, in labs with scientists and procedures


throw a bit of code produced by the lowest bidder into the mix


sounds great

Markcheese

Interslice wrote: »

Question for you unkel. Hypothetically would you time travel 20 years forward with your family and get into an automonous leaf(no driver safety controls) and do a 2 hour lap of dublin city and m50 made of entirely of automonous vehicles, trucks buses the whole lot, with no safety drivers at rush hour? Would you put your life in the hands of the tech advancing sufficiently to survive?

It'd be hard to do without understanding how it all works ,even when you know it's safer than the equivalent human ..
But even today how many cars are using adaptive cruise control with bind spot warnings ect ...
Motorways are probably the safest easiest places to start automation , and you know that if the speed limit is dropped to 80 kph because of traffic conditions ,or there's a squad car on the hard shoulder ,all the cars will continue as they should ..
It'll be tricky when your off the motorway ..

Markcheese

the.red.baron wrote: »

you boys should go back and watch a bit of tomorrows world before you start making predictions about 30s time


we will all be living in twig huts


that's my prediction


my fridge still isn't connected to the world wide web for feck sake


sort that out first


energy crisis is where its at for me

What is it/ was it with smart fridges ( but not smart owners .) It's kind of like predictions of flying cars ,

ELM327

Interslice wrote: »

Question for you unkel. Hypothetically would you time travel 20 years forward with your family and get into an automonous leaf(no driver safety controls) and do a 2 hour lap of dublin city and m50 made of entirely of automonous vehicles, trucks buses the whole lot, with no safety drivers at rush hour? Would you put your life in the hands of the tech advancing sufficiently to survive?

I know I wouldnt.
I don't think we will reach that point in our lifetime.

thenightman

Brother works as mechanic for Hyundai & all his training courses over the last few years have been EV related, so at least his trade is being future proofed to an extent. He has a young family, and is worried nevertheless.

galwaytt

unkel wrote: »

EVs will last a lot longer than ICE cars though, so probably a bit of catching up to do in maintenance in their later years. Inverters and the like don't last forever

I don't know about that: it's not mechanical that'll retire them, it's systems - they are, essentially, PC's on wheels. Who's going to be writing code for 20yr old systems ? Just look at PC's. Hell, even at work we have 3 perfectly good, working, but retired servers: they just can't cope with current workloads. OS for cars will be the same.

galwaytt

thenightman wrote: »

Brother works as mechanic for Hyundai & all his training courses over the last few years have been EV related, so at least his trade is being future proofed to an extent. He has a young family, and is worried nevertheless.

I trained in the 80's and they were telling us then that we'd be obsolete by 2000. Yet here we are.

Tell him not to worry: he'll just adapt as we've always done.

kirving

Interslice wrote: »

Question for you unkel. Hypothetically would you time travel 20 years forward with your family and get into an automonous leaf(no driver safety controls) and do a 2 hour lap of dublin city and m50 made of entirely of automonous vehicles, trucks buses the whole lot, with no safety drivers at rush hour? Would you put your life in the hands of the tech advancing sufficiently to survive?

Forget 20 years time, perfectly safe autonomous vehicles exist today. As for the M50, give me a road full of autonomous cars every single day.

Well over 1000 people are employed in this country developing this technology, and we're a small island off an island. Tens of thousands are employed across the UK and Europe. Far more jobs will be created out of this technology than may be lost.

padjocollins

Kevin Irving wrote: »

Forget 20 years time, perfectly safe autonomous vehicles exist today. As for the M50, give me a road full of autonomous cars every single day.

Well over 1000 people are employed in this country developing this technology, and we're a small island off an island. Tens of thousands are employed across the UK and Europe. Far more jobs will be created out of this technology than may be lost.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N594EF44CZD2aGkSh/machine-learning-can-t-understand-long-term-time-series-data

http://www.startribune.com/3-crashes-3-deaths-raise-questions-about-tesla-s-autopilot/566680301/?refresh=true

Wibbs

Kevin Irving wrote: »

Forget 20 years time, perfectly safe autonomous vehicles exist today.

Not outside wishful thinking and hype they don't. We're at level 2 and 3, with some bugs still in the system and are a good way from level 5, ie fully autonomous cars.

unkel

Wibbs wrote: »

Not outside wishful thinking and hype they don't. We're at level 2 and 3, with some bugs still in the system and are a good way from level 5, ie fully autonomous cars.

Cruise (GM) applied for permission to remove the steering wheel and all other human controls / overrides from their autonomous cars last year (and is expected to get it this year), making them full level 5 autonomous vehicles. Driving around on the public road in the USA.

Level 2 autonomous driving has been around for quite some time, even in budget cars. I.e. it was a standard feature on all versions of the 2016 €25k Hyundai Ioniq. Since 2019 a car can not get a Euro NCAP 5 star rating, if it is not level 2 autonomous driving (EAB, LKAS, ACC)

swarlb

galwaytt wrote: »

sorry, but no.

I'd file this in the same category as "PC's will drive the the paperless office". World copier paper consumption is up 30% from 2007-2017.....

Or, "Robots will take all our jobs". Meh. The amount of jobs in this economy that are displaceable by robots is far less than you think....

Don't forget that in the 1950's it was said that by 1999 we'd be living on the moon, travelling in 'spacecars', all the while wearing silver suits and eating protein pills....

kyote00

NTSB don't agree

https://www.ntsb.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/NR20191119c.aspx

Also the latest peer reviewed literature indicates just how far off we are...
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-12157-0_16

Kevin Irving wrote: »

Forget 20 years time, perfectly safe autonomous vehicles exist today. As for the M50, give me a road full of autonomous cars every single day.

Well over 1000 people are employed in this country developing this technology, and we're a small island off an island. Tens of thousands are employed across the UK and Europe. Far more jobs will be created out of this technology than may be lost.

Wibbs

unkel wrote: »

Cruise (GM) applied for permission to remove the steering wheel and all other human controls / overrides from their autonomous cars last year (and is expected to get it this year), making them full level 5 autonomous vehicles. Driving around on the public road in the USA.

I'm sorry, no way are they level five, not outside as I said earlier wishful thinking and hype. They might be removing the human controls in a small scale trial, but level five, which is AI quite a bit ahead of current tech is quite a while away. Tesla's autopilot setup which is pretty fly, is considered a level 2.

unkel

Wibbs wrote: »

I'm sorry, no way are they level five, not outside as I said earlier wishful thinking and hype. They might be removing the human controls in a small scale trial, but level five, which is AI quite a bit ahead of current tech is quite a while away.

The cruise cars, after this modification, will have no way for a human inside to control the vehicle. The vehicle is fully autonomous. That is, by definition, level 5

This request is generally expected to be granted this year

Currently, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is in talks with GM to determine the legality of the situation.

Linky

Wibbs

unkel wrote: »

The cruise cars, after this modification, will have no way for a human inside to control the vehicle. The vehicle is fully autonomous. That is, by definition, level 5

No it is not. Yes it has no way for humans to intercede, but that does not make it an actual level 5 AI fully autonomous car. One could remove the controls from the latest Tesla and it would do OK much of the time, that would not make it truly fully autonomous. That's quite a bit away.

unkel

Wibbs wrote: »

No it is not. Yes it has no way for humans to intercede, but that does not make it an actual level 5 AI fully autonomous car. One could remove the controls from the latest Tesla and it would do OK much of the time, that would not make it truly fully autonomous. That's quite a bit away.

It's the definition of level 5 autonomous cars.

Or, in Wibbs world, does a car only match that definition when it has done 5 billion km without crashing?

Already the far from perfect (as you say) Tesla cars with rudimentary level 2 autonomous driving, are far safer than human drivers. Imagine how few road deaths there will be in 20-30 years time when all new cars are level 5 autonomous?