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CC3 -- Why I believe that a third option is needed for climate change

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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    Nabber wrote: »
    So we get the summer we have always cried for in Ireland
    source - https://greennews.ie/ireland-dramatic-climate-change-by-2050/

    If you want droughts go to California


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    the whole planet is in a similar boat, and i wouldnt be worrying too much about money as such, we ve figured out how to effectively create infinite amounts of the stuff, without collapsing the planet, we ve just decided its best not to redistribute it very well

    Not yet but it’ll soon change irreparably


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,808 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Not yet but it’ll soon change irreparably

    dont think that ll happen at all, theres too much at stake, we ll figure it out, even though we may have to implement radical ideas such as debts jubilees etc, i dont think we ll allow ourselves to fall into a deep depression, we showed that from events in 08


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Nabber wrote: »
    So we get the summer we have always cried for in Ireland
    source - https://greennews.ie/ireland-dramatic-climate-change-by-2050/

    From that article:

    "Ireland’s climate is set to look drastically different by mid-century, according to a new super-computer generated projection".

    :confused:

    "More heatwaves, according to the report, will have a “direct impact” on public health and mortality, but may be offset by the projected decrease in colder days".

    :confused:

    I sometimes wonder if these people are really just taking the piss at this stage. There was talk on here about mass paranoia etc and how silly people are for following it, and that is a fair point. Yet, it is actual scientists who are pushing this mass hysteria. From 'end of the world atomic count downs' to climate change apocalypse to this, that and the friggin other.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,636 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    From that article:

    "Ireland’s climate is set to look drastically different by mid-century, according to a new super-computer generated projection".

    :confused:

    "More heatwaves, according to the report, will have a “direct impact” on public health and mortality, but may be offset by the projected decrease in colder days".

    :confused:

    I sometimes wonder if these people are really just taking the piss at this stage. There was talk on here about mass paranoia etc and how silly people are for following it, and that is a fair point. Yet, it is actual scientists who are pushing this mass hysteria. From 'end of the world atomic count downs' to climate change apocalypse to this, that and the friggin other.

    They have been coming out with that kind of hysterical nonsense for nearly 30 years now. I remember similar "predictions" back in 2000 which said that by 2020 Ireland would have a "Med" climate with snow to be a thing of the past:rolleyes:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    dont think that ll happen at all, theres too much at stake, we ll figure it out, even though we may have to implement radical ideas such as debts jubilees etc, i dont think we ll allow ourselves to fall into a deep depression, we showed that from events in 08

    This tread is about the environment


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,808 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    This tread is about the environment

    Our economic and environmentally matters are intertwined, they can't and shouldn't be separated, it's our attempt to do so has lead us to our current environmental outcomes, if we don't accept this, we 're toast


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Birdnuts wrote: »
    They have been coming out with that kind of hysterical nonsense for nearly 30 years now. I remember similar "predictions" back in 2000 which said that by 2020 Ireland would have a "Med" climate with snow to be a thing of the past:rolleyes:

    I do wonder what is powering that "new super-computer generated projection" that speaks to us its worldly wisdoms. Somehow, I doubt it is of a 'green' source. My bets is that it uses more fossil powered energy in a week than a whole family would use in an entire year.

    But anyway, who am I and who are we to speak such things?

    HgHX2bU.png

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2020/07/30/you-must-not-do-your-own-research-when-it-comes-to-science/?sh=69dec571535e

    'Intuition
    is
    awakening
    suspicion..."

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,337 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    That explains the black SUVs circling the block here.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »

    Imagine, anyone who went against Al Gores ice free artic was ridiculed.
    Yet year after year we see outlandish predictions
    Oil will run out by 2020
    2020, "millions will die" from climate change

    We have been bombarded with this for 30years. Failed prediction? No problem it's not about being right or responsible. It's about optics, are you supporting the right cause?

    The planet would be in a better place if the trillions invested into Solar/Wind/Hyrdo was put into nuclear energy.
    The reason nuclear is opposed is not because of the risk, but rather the fact that it doesn't play into the social narrative built over the past 30 years. Eco warriors and their populist sheep don't want a solution to the carbon issue they champion.
    Imagine a carbon scrubber that consumed lesson carbon than it removed? You think the fanboys in here would want that?
    Live how you want as we can scrub your carbon..... It would force the keyboard warriors to look at actual issues, like aggressive farming practices, habitat destruction, chemical pollutants ect. You know the real issues with actual measurable impacts and not whimsical vague links to things like 'snowflakes are 2% smaller than 1880'

    On top of all of this, we have wasted seats in the Dail used up by a hypocritical green party.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Nabber wrote: »

    No problem it's not about being right or responsible. It's about optics

    And the Benjamins.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,869 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    I do wonder what is powering that "new super-computer generated projection" that speaks to us its worldly wisdoms. Somehow, I doubt it is of a 'green' source. My bets is that it uses more fossil powered energy in a week than a whole family would use in an entire year.

    But anyway, who am I and who are we to speak such things?

    HgHX2bU.png

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2020/07/30/you-must-not-do-your-own-research-when-it-comes-to-science/?sh=69dec571535e

    'Intuition
    is
    awakening
    suspicion..."
    From the genius who brought us the shocking news that David Attenborough and the other naturalists only film endangered animals because they take sexual pleasure in seeing them suffer we now have new revelations that scientists who use electricity in their research are the ones destroying the planet... :rolleyes:

    Wonder what new heights the Boards.ie Mensa chapter will reach in 2021?


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,337 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Hey mock our intelligence at your pleasure, I believe the prime movers all live at least 30 kms inland from the rising ocean, in my case I added 1,050 metres in the upward direction just to be safe.

    If I didn't mention this already, my research (excel) files are more or less complete now and I will make them available shortly after NYD so that all 2020 data can be incorporated. Then interested parties can either add their own data from source or get updates from me at desired future intervals. There will be three files available, for CET, Toronto and NYC.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Thargor wrote: »
    From the genius who brought us the shocking news that David Attenborough and the other naturalists only film endangered animals because they take sexual pleasure in seeing them suffer we now have new revelations that scientists who use electricity in their research are the ones destroying the planet... :rolleyes:

    Wonder what new heights the Boards.ie Mensa chapter will reach in 2021?

    Attack the post, not the poster. I thought that was the mantra, no?

    Do you have any comment on the actual article itself, which, btw, wasn't written by Oneiric?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Interesting that one of the key concepts of AGW Global warming is that temperatures globally vary very little in relatively short periods usually changing over increments of 10,000yrs Any change is over gradual predictable increments. The famous hockey stick chart as an example.
    There are examples of temperatures fluctuating in scales that dwarf AWG suggested changes.
    Younger Dryas (wiki)
    Measurements of oxygen isotopes from the GISP2 ice core suggest the ending of the Younger Dryas took place over just 40 to 50 years in three discrete steps, each lasting five years. Other proxy data, such as dust concentration and snow accumulation, suggest an even more rapid transition, which would require about 7 °C (13 °F) of warming in just a few years

    7C over a geographically large area is phenomenal energy input or energy distribution, of which we are unsure how such a 'rewarming' could happen so rapidly. There are multiple scenarios on what caused the cooling, glacial melt water lake in Alaska, impact crater in Greenland or a Volcanoe in Germany. The most likely in my opinion is a disruption to the AMOC. As the cuase is unknown it's also not clear what caused such a rapid growth.

    The Akkadian collapse is another similar example of steady climate displaying rapid changes.

    All temperature changes today are assigned to CO2 emissions with very little if none at all assigned to natural variability. Localised events where temperatures show an upward change are noted as AWG evidence. Any downward trends are localised weather variabilities. The two examples above have no influence from human activity.

    Although these don't prove or disprove AGW warming, they do showcase that our climate is not as steady and unchanging as the current populist narrative advocators would have one believe.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Thargor wrote: »
    From the genius who brought us the shocking news that David Attenborough and the other naturalists only film endangered animals because they take sexual pleasure in seeing them suffer we now have new revelations that scientists who use electricity in their research are the ones destroying the planet... :rolleyes:

    Wonder what new heights the Boards.ie Mensa chapter will reach in 2021?

    tenor.gif

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    Nabber wrote: »
    Interesting that one of the key concepts of AGW Global warming is that temperatures globally vary very little in relatively short periods usually changing over increments of 10,000yrs Any change is over gradual predictable increments. The famous hockey stick chart as an example.
    There are examples of temperatures fluctuating in scales that dwarf AWG suggested changes.



    7C over a geographically large area is phenomenal energy input or energy distribution, of which we are unsure how such a 'rewarming' could happen so rapidly. There are multiple scenarios on what caused the cooling, glacial melt water lake in Alaska, impact crater in Greenland or a Volcanoe in Germany. The most likely in my opinion is a disruption to the AMOC. As the cuase is unknown it's also not clear what caused such a rapid growth.

    The Akkadian collapse is another similar example of steady climate displaying rapid changes.

    All temperature changes today are assigned to CO2 emissions with very little if none at all assigned to natural variability. Localised events where temperatures show an upward change are noted as AWG evidence. Any downward trends are localised weather variabilities. The two examples above have no influence from human activity.

    Although these don't prove or disprove AGW warming, they do showcase that our climate is not as steady and unchanging as the current populist narrative advocators would have one believe.


    So you don’t believe human activity is a substantial cause of climate change. If your going to use acronyms in a statement you should let the reader know what they stand for, at least once.

    AGW = anthropogenic global warming or in everyday English global warming associated with human activity.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    So you don’t believe human activity is a substantial cause of climate change. If your going to use acronyms in a statement you should let the reader know what they stand for, at least once.

    AGW = anthropogenic global warming or in everyday English global warming associated with human activity.

    The term AGW is well-known and frequently used in this and other threads without any problem. If someone has to explain an acronym evert time it's used then the idea of an acronym becomes redundant. Maybe the FI thread should have it spelt out every time, or likewise LOL or IMHO.


  • Registered Users Posts: 22,236 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Attack the post, not the poster. I thought that was the mantra, no?

    Do you have any comment on the actual article itself, which, btw, wasn't written by Oneiric?

    The scientific debate happens in the scientific literature. Nobody should be making claims of a scientific nature unless they can back up those claims with reference to scientific papers in reputable journals

    The 'do your own research' referred to in that article, is clearly a reference to people who are looking for confirmation of a pre-existing belief or world view, so rather than see what the science actually says, they go looking for sources that they can use to back up their existing belief.

    This criticism applies to everyone btw, on both sides of every debate.

    When new evidence emerges, a genuine skeptic will adjust their position accordingly.

    Someone might, for example, think climate sensitivity is 1c, but when global average temperature increases already pass 1c without reaching the necessary doubling of atmospheric CO2, then a genuine skeptic would change their mind and revise their opinion on the likely climate sensitivity upwards in line with the evidence (most recent studies show sensitivity is very likely to be at least 2c with a likely range of between 2.3c- 4.5c
    https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019RG000678


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    The term AGW is well-known and frequently used in this and other threads without any problem. If someone has to explain an acronym evert time it's used then the idea of an acronym becomes redundant. Maybe the FI thread should have it spelt out every time, or likewise LOL or IMHO.

    Use as many acronyms as you like but it would be far simpler to just say “ I don’t believe human activity has any bearing on the climate change”.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    So you don’t believe human activity is a substantial cause of climate change. If your going to use acronyms in a statement you should let the reader know what they stand for, at least once.

    AGW = anthropogenic global warming or in everyday English global warming associated with human activity.

    You'd have to define substantial, % terms would help. I'd agree with you statement on the reader if this was the first post, but AGW has been used several times in this Tread over the past ~6months. The onus is on the reader to read all of the material and not expect each post to have an acronyms typed out. This is common English written standard.

    You should also read the contents of the post. It was a challenge to the idea that the climate is not as predictable nor gradual in their changes as the AGW narrative suggests.

    I stated that:
    Although these don't prove or disprove AGW warming,

    To answer you question as vague as it is.
    I do think humans impact the climate in a negative way. Probably just not the way you think it does.

    My issue(s) as with most people if have discussed with who would be labelled 'deniers' is with the narrative that has been created around climate change. It's turned into good vs evil issue and lets not forget the abundant misinformation that is preached from Hollywood, Politicians, Media ect..
    The fact that very little investigative work is done on 'green' initiatives which are typically neither carbon neutral nor good for the environment.

    The moral high ground taken by household activists who never bother to confirm how green their trend du jour is but will climb onto their pedestal (Twitter, Facebook, Reddit) all of which are unnecessary pollutants to tell us all how the world is doomed. But that wasteful carbon they have generated to preach is all offset because their orange peels from South Africa & the avocado skin from Mexico are wrapped up in compostable bag from the UK, dropped into a wheelie bin from China picked up by a truck made in Korea run on Oil from Kuwait and sent somewhere they don't know, nor do they really care!!!

    So regardless if you are a firm believer in AGW or not, if you live in a developed country you are the cause not the solution.
    The only folks who are carbon neutral are the unfortunates in 3rd world countries struggling each day to survive.

    But hey lets sacrifice the kids in the Congo for our 10% greener batteries. Go team Green ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    Nabber wrote: »
    You'd have to define substantial, % terms would help. I'd agree with you statement on the reader if this was the first post, but AGW has been used several times in this Tread over the past ~6months. The onus is on the reader to read all of the material and not expect each post to have an acronyms typed out. This is common English written standard.

    You should also read the contents of the post. It was a challenge to the idea that the climate is not as predictable nor gradual in their changes as the AGW narrative suggests.

    I stated that:



    To answer you question as vague as it is.
    I do think humans impact the climate in a negative way. Probably just not the way you think it does.

    My issue(s) as with most people if have discussed with who would be labelled 'deniers' is with the narrative that has been created around climate change. It's turned into good vs evil issue and lets not forget the abundant misinformation that is preached from Hollywood, Politicians, Media ect..
    The fact that very little investigative work is done on 'green' initiatives which are typically neither carbon neutral nor good for the environment.

    The moral high ground taken by household activists who never bother to confirm how green their trend du jour is but will climb onto their pedestal (Twitter, Facebook, Reddit) all of which are unnecessary pollutants to tell us all how the world is doomed. But that wasteful carbon they have generated to preach is all offset because their orange peels from South Africa & the avocado skin from Mexico are wrapped up in compostable bag from the UK, dropped into a wheelie bin from China picked up by a truck made in Korea run on Oil from Kuwait and sent somewhere they don't know, nor do they really care!!!

    So regardless if you are a firm believer in AGW or not, if you live in a developed country you are the cause not the solution.
    The only folks who are carbon neutral are the unfortunates in 3rd world countries struggling each day to survive.

    But hey lets sacrifice the kids in the Congo for our 10% greener batteries. Go team Green ;)

    Firstly I didn't ask a question I made a statement.

    My qualifications on the topic for what they're worth come from Harvard. That said I didn't do a masters the on the subject. I did not choose to be born in the west and Im well aware that for centuries the African continent has been rapped for it resources so don't spout your "Go team Green" nonsense at me your are reading this on smart phone or PC after all.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Firstly I didn't ask a question I made a statement.

    My qualifications on the topic for what they're worth come from Harvard. That said I didn't do a masters the on the subject. I did not choose to be born in the west and Im well aware that for centuries the African continent has been rapped for it resources so don't spout your "Go team Green" nonsense at me your are reading this on smart phone or PC after all.

    Couldn't care less where you have been educated. When you are wrong you are wrong. Trying to call an anonymous user out on written English etiquette using the most well know climate acronym on a weather forum, on a thread with +170 pages... Well played.

    Lets head over to the financial forum and make sure PRSI and PAYE are clearly defined in each post..... Harvard indeed :pac::pac::pac:


    Not sure what you are talking about or that you are taking the time to read my posts. You seem to be taking offense to segments of my posts when they are clearly not directed at you. If they do describe you, by all means take offense.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    Nabber wrote: »
    Couldn't care less where you have been educated. When you are wrong you are wrong. Trying to call an anonymous user out on written English etiquette using the most well know climate acronym on a weather forum, on a thread with +170 pages... Well played.

    Lets head over to the financial forum and make sure PRSI and PAYE are clearly defined in each post..... Harvard indeed :pac::pac::pac:


    Not sure what you are talking about or that you are taking the time to read my posts. You seem to be taking offense to segments of my posts when they are clearly not directed at you. If they do describe you, by all means take offense.

    I’m not wrong on anything. It’s a sign of weakness when one attacks the player. Head on over to the to financial forum why don’t ya, be sure to shut the door on your way out.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Use as many acronyms as you like but it would be far simpler to just say “ I don’t believe human activity has any bearing on the climate change”.

    No it wouldn't. Being of Harvard I would have thought that you would be itching to throw in as many buzz terms as you like.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,337 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Just posted the 1991-2020 CET values in a thread over on NW, basically most days (and therefore months) are now running 0.2 C warmer than the 1981-2010 period, June being the exception (no real changes there).

    We'll see if the next decade continues this trend or begins to flat-line. That may help to answer the question of what proportions the AGW signal and natural variability actually have.

    But we should keep in mind that we are also facing a much different climate challenge on a different time scale, that posed by the next glacial maximum. All indications are that this is not going to develop quickly, but rather in a slow decline over thousands of years accelerating about 20k years from now. To get to that conclusion, one must place one's faith in the Milankovich theories, which have been widely accepted (despite a few nagging concerns about second-order correlation issues). However, what if other unforeseen causations come along and plunge us more rapidly into a glacial climate? (for example, major volcanic activity, global war, sustained solar quiet). Then this debate will look fairly insignificant.

    Huge variations in temperatures near the end of the last glacial were probably closely related to ice cover within relatively short distances, and fresh water entering the Atlantic when various ice dams in North America broke down, releasing massive and frigid bodies of water like Lake Agassiz. We have no reason to expect naturally occurring swings on that scale in the modern climate. Even after the Maunder, the mean temperature in the CET series only warmed by 1.0 to 1.5 C deg. The 20th century in North America has run about 1.5 C warmer than the 19th century. We don't see any examples of much larger variations than those.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    No it wouldn't. Being of Harvard I would have thought that you would be itching to throw in as many buzz terms as you like.

    You thought wrong.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3



    My qualifications on the topic for what they're worth come from Harvard.

    And...?

    What is it about sciency types gives them the urge to shout from the rooftops their qualifications and place of study at every given opportunity, and more often than not, when they aren't even asked for? Something very insecure about that.

    Yes, climate is no doubt impacted in a very small way by human activity, but human activity has also been impacted, by a far greater degree, by climate and historical climate change. Humans and society thrive in warmth far more than they do in cold, as history has long told.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Just posted the 1991-2020 CET values in a thread over on NW, basically most days (and therefore months) are now running 0.2 C warmer than the 1981-2010 period, June being the exception (no real changes there).

    We'll see if the next decade continues this trend or begins to flat-line. That may help to answer the question of what proportions the AGW signal and natural variability actually have.

    But we should keep in mind that we are also facing a much different climate challenge on a different time scale, that posed by the next glacial maximum. All indications are that this is not going to develop quickly, but rather in a slow decline over thousands of years accelerating about 20k years from now. To get to that conclusion, one must place one's faith in the Milankovich theories, which have been widely accepted (despite a few nagging concerns about second-order correlation issues). However, what if other unforeseen causations come along and plunge us more rapidly into a glacial climate? (for example, major volcanic activity, global war, sustained solar quiet). Then this debate will look fairly insignificant.

    Huge variations in temperatures near the end of the last glacial were probably closely related to ice cover within relatively short distances, and fresh water entering the Atlantic when various ice dams in North America broke down, releasing massive and frigid bodies of water like Lake Agassiz. We have no reason to expect naturally occurring swings on that scale in the modern climate. Even after the Maunder, the mean temperature in the CET series only warmed by 1.0 to 1.5 C deg. The 20th century in North America has run about 1.5 C warmer than the 19th century. We don't see any examples of much larger variations than those.

    A chart that may interest you a little MT and one that may reflect, somewhat, what may be occurring in CET zone also:

    N2jjJDQ.png

    Chart shows the 365 day running average number of days with daily temp averages below -1.5c (from the 1981-00 mean) here in Ireland. We can observe that all was hunky dory until 1986 (late October 1986 if we are to be pedantic) when 70s/80s cold seem to peak, but then sharply and inexplicably fell thereafter to more 'modern' values. If anything, we are seeing a slight uptick again in the number of significantly colder than average days over the last decade or so, but not really enough in a way to say that things are looking 'up' again at this stage and may be nothing more than statistical noise.

    Edit: just to add, the yellow line is the running decadal trend.

    Data from Met Eireann.

    Edit: I've pointed this out before, but something happened in 1986 that changed the temp profile sharply over these lands and as I have also said before, 1986 was the year of Chernobyl. Maybe this has nothing to do with anything, but I think it is too much of a coincidence to ignore. Did nuclear radiation fallout from Chernobyl have some detrimental long-term effect on the polar ice caps? I don't know, but perhaps someone else does.

    New Moon



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  • Registered Users Posts: 22,236 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    And...?

    What is it about sciency types gives them the urge to shout from the rooftops their qualifications and place of study at every given opportunity, and more often than not, when they aren't even asked for? Something very insecure about that.

    Yes, climate is no doubt impacted in a very small way by human activity, but human activity has also been impacted, by a far greater degree, by climate and historical climate change. Humans and society thrive in warmth far more than they do in cold, as history has long told.

    You did not cite your source for your claim that the climate is only impacted in a very small way by human activity. This is a claim that goes against a very strong scientific consensus

    My last post included a link that shows climate sensitivity is likely to be between 2.3 and 4.5c

    That is an enormous impact on that will have very dramatic effects on climate


This discussion has been closed.
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