And so it begins - flexible electricity prices

unkel

In the UK people have the so called "Economy 7" tariff, comparable to our night rate, but only valid for 7 hours per day. Ours is 9 hours

The average Economy 7 rate is about 8.7p/kWh

Now, a utility provider over there called Octopus is offering a rate as low as 4.5p/kWh which can only be used for 3 hours a day. Enough for many people to charge their EV if they plug in every night

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDhuAZ4vK3s

Hopefully soon we will have smart meters that can provide even cheaper electricity during times of renewable overproduction. And utility companies that pay you a premium for taking electricity out of your plugged in EV at peak times

Interesting times!

n97 mini

Does that guy have one brown eye and one blue eye?

unkel

He's David Bowie's son, didn't you know?

n97 mini

Interesting that the 3 hour time slot can start as early as 8:30pm!

discostu1

The current CRU proposal is for a Day rate probably 8am to 23.00
A night Rate probably 23.00 to 8.00am
and a PEAK rate 17.00 to 19.00 these will be part of the offerings from Supplier sometime in 2021

gozunda

unkel wrote: »

In the UK people have the so called "Economy 7" tariff, comparable to our night rate, but only valid for 7 hours per day. Ours is 9 hours

The average Economy 7 rate is about 8.7p/kWh

Now, a utility provider over there called Octopus is offering a rate as low as 4.5p/kWh which can only be used for 3 hours a day. Enough for many people to charge their EV if they plug in every night

Hopefully soon we will have smart meters that can provide even cheaper electricity during times of renewable overproduction. And utility companies that pay you a premium for taking electricity out of your plugged in EV at peak times

Interesting times!

What do you mean re "times of renewable overproduction"?

Gumbo

gozunda wrote: »

What do you mean re "times of renewable overproduction"?

We create surplus electricity at times, especially late at night when the wind farms are still in full swing.

ted1

kceire wrote: »

We create surplus electricity at times, especially late at night when the wind farms are still in full swing.

* we can create surplus.

Once we reach the max SNSP we curtail our wind by shutting it off.

Heroditas

discostu1 wrote: »

The current CRU proposal is for a Day rate probably 8am to 23.00
A night Rate probably 23.00 to 8.00am
and a PEAK rate 17.00 to 19.00 these will be part of the offerings from Supplier sometime in 2021

Suppliers will also be able to create their own tariffs if they want to as well as offering the standard CRU proposal.
Smart metering go-live is the end of next year so we should expect tariffs early 2021.

gozunda

kceire wrote: »

We create surplus electricity at times, especially late at night when the wind farms are still in full swing.

Wind farms are in operation 24/7 depending on operating conditions. But 'late at night' - they may not in fact be in full swing. During periods of high winds or turbulence - units may have to be powered down to prevent damage. This is a fairly common issue with wind turbines. The times of maximum energy production are also highly variable and may occur during daylight hours or night depending on conditions. .

unkel

gozunda wrote: »

Wind farms are in operation 24/7 depending on operating conditions. So 'late at night' - they may not in fact be in full swing. During periods of high winds or turbulence - units may have to be powered down to prevent damage.

The Irish grid can only handle 75% renewable (wind). Sometimes we produce more and we have to give it away for cheap or sometimes even for free to the interconnector. Wind is quite predictable. My idea in the first post is that smart meters would know when electricity is going to be really cheap (I can see it go retail price including VAT to 2c/kWh at times) and charge up cars, charge up home attached batteries, run appliances like dishwashers, washing machines etc. all on 100% renewable electricity and also very cheaply. On the other hand I can also see peak rate electricity go to €1/kWh

ted1

unkel wrote: »

The Irish grid can only handle 75% renewable (wind). Sometimes we produce more and we have to give it away for cheap or sometimes even for free to the interconnector. Wind is quite predictable. My idea in the first post is that smart meters would know when electricity is going to be really cheap (I can see it go retail price including VAT to 2c/kWh at times) and charge up cars, charge up home attached batteries, run appliances like dishwashers, washing machines etc. all on 100% renewable electricity and also very cheaply. On the other hand I can also see peak rate electricity go to €1/kWh

Energy is traded a day in advance in half hour blocks. So it’s relatively easy to predetermine pricing

Are we up to 75% SNSP I thought we ware still at 65%, once it’s reached that’s it. We can’t give it away as it’ll be on the grid. So we curtail it

gozunda

unkel wrote: »

The Irish grid can only handle 75% renewable (wind). Sometimes we produce more and we have to give it away for cheap or sometimes even for free to the interconnector. Wind is quite predictable. My idea in the first post is that smart meters would know when electricity is going to be really cheap (I can see it go retail price including VAT to 2c/kWh at times) and charge up cars, charge up home attached batteries, run appliances like dishwashers, washing machines etc. all on 100% renewable electricity and also very cheaply. On the other hand I can also see peak rate electricity go to €1/kWh

I see what you are getting at but unfortunately wind as a function of climate is highly variable with wind power generation being affected by periods of very high winds (requiring wind turbines to be turned off) and low winds power (when generation is minimal).

Unfortunately these issues mean that it is very difficult to predict when wind powered electricity will be cheapest with any reliability .

discostu1

Heroditas wrote: »

Suppliers will also be able to create their own tariffs if they want to as well as offering the standard CRU proposal.
Smart metering go-live is the end of next year so we should expect tariffs early 2021.

Short term circa 2021 no Supplier will want to do anything other than the CRU proposals, time of use billing for any large business would require significant IT input. Remember 2021 is also the year that by Law FIT comes into being. So IF suppliers were to pay for that as well the IT would be extremely expensive. DUKE energy in the U.S are an interesting example of what Unkel is talking about but I think we are probably 6 to 8 years away. PLUS at some stage some politician will howl about cooking the dinner/tea at 17.00 to 19.00 to fierce dear (I'm hearing a Kerry Accent though they do say they have their dinner in the middle of the day down that way )

unkel

discostu1 wrote: »

at some stage some politician will howl about cooking the dinner/tea at 17.00 to 19.00 to fierce dear (I'm hearing a Kerry Accent though they do say they have their dinner in the middle of the day down that way )

Those retards will have to learn to live with it

Average electricity price in the US is about $0.10/kWh but already peak rates in the likes of Texas have shot up to $1/kWh

Basically, if you want to use electricity while it is being made from fossil fuels, you will have to pay a huge premium. If you want to use fossil fuels for anything, you will have to pay big money. That's the new reality, we are facing extreme effects of climate change. Get over it.

air

The price of lithium batteries is dropping so quickly that I think it's going to put a real dampener on peak energy prices - which is a good thing.

Lifetime storage cycle costs for complete modules are quickly approaching 5c/kWh.
The VW CEO recently quoted a figure of €100 per kWh for the VW ID I believe.

Add that to cheap renewable energy for charging them up off peak and hopefully it will be a big help in moving towards an economical and sustainable future.
Deploying them in a decentralised fashion across the power network should ease strain on the transmission and distribution networks once our grid operators come around to that way of thinking.

During periods of prolonged low wind output we're still exposed though until we diversify our low CO2 electricity production with more solar and inter connector capacity.

ELM327

We plan to move house in 3-4 years. At that point in time I expect lithium storage to have dropped to the point that I can fit 20kWh of storage which is charged by solar, or by night rate grid electricity as a worst case. Grid management (ie smoothing out the demand curve) is easier that you think, even the thickos that think EVs can't drive through puddles may understand it!!

ted1

unkel wrote: »

Those retards will have to learn to live with it

Average electricity price in the US is about $0.10/kWh .

Wholesale , residential or industrial/commercial?

The residential rate is much higher. And varies greatly by state.

ELM327

ted1 wrote: »

Wholesale , residential or industrial/commercial?

The residential rate is much higher. And varies greatly by state.

Residential goes to 6c or below , particularly in the south.


As you say, it varies state by state, California is ridiculous for all energy prices from gas to electric to water

Lumen

ELM327 wrote: »

...even the thickos that think EVs can't drive through puddles may understand it!!

Eh, it's fine for you up on your Model S high horse, bu the Model 3 has a fairly well reported problem with driving through puddles.

ted1

ELM327 wrote: »

Residential goes to 6c or below , particularly in the south.


As you say, it varies state by state, California is ridiculous for all energy prices from gas to electric to water

Which state?
13.65 c/kWh is the average.
https://www.electricchoice.com/electricity-prices-by-state/

The New England states, Alaska and several others are higher than California.

I’d also hazard a guess and say they are pre tax prices.

ELM327

ted1 wrote: »

Which state?
13.65 c/kWh is the average.
https://www.electricchoice.com/electricity-prices-by-state/

The New England states, Alaska and several others are higher than California.

I’d also hazard a guess and say they are pre tax prices.

Atlanta for instance (which is one I remember for sure, based on the LikeTesla youtube channel!!)


http://www.psc.state.ga.us/calc/electric/GPcalc.asp

basill

If everyone increases consumption at what is considered today to be off peak will that not be a new peak and therefore prices get jacked up? Also are we not comparing apples and oranges at this point in time.....There are very few EVs in this country. Once fossil fuelled vehicles are taxed out then surely demand will increase for electricity with a corresponding increase in price. If you have an EV then enjoy the price differentials, VRT exemptions etc as they won't last for long once the masses come along and the government exploits this for its tax gain.

Munurty

Large commercial energy users have had smart meters for a long time.

Where I work our electricity price changes at least every 30 minutes, it might change even more frequently than that now. We have >3MW connection.

Years ago UK wholesale gas prices were the price driver but now it is Irish wind.
Nowadays on a windy day we can get free electricity.
They work our plant every night to make the most of cheaper electricity.
They look at tomorrows predicted price to decide if we will work during the day and we rarely operate during the evening peak due to price.

The plant is part of a "smart grid" system also. In less than a seconds notice the grid can shut down the plant automatically to stabilise the load or frequency of the grid.



https://www.semopx.com/
http://smartgriddashboard.eirgrid.com/

Lumen

basill wrote: »

If everyone increases consumption at what is considered today to be off peak will that not be a new peak and therefore prices get jacked up? Also are we not comparing apples and oranges at this point in time.....There are very few EVs in this country. Once fossil fuelled vehicles are taxed out then surely demand will increase for electricity with a corresponding increase in price. If you have an EV then enjoy the price differentials, VRT exemptions etc as they won't last for long once the masses come along and the government exploits this for its tax gain.

The end game is dynamic pricing, where you leave the car plugged in to a smart charger which varies the current depending on price, potentially sells back to the grid.

So, say you have 80% charge but aren't planning any long trips the next day, you would set your car/charger to "anything over 50%" and the car could sell back the 30% when the price spiked to say 20c, and then charge up again when the price drops.

And then if you have a workplace charger you do the same, selling back electricity during the day at a higher price than you paid for it, helping to load balance the grid and reducing the need for fossil powered stations.

I don't think this is a pipedream, all the tech is available from what I can tell.

ted1

Munurty wrote: »

Large commercial energy users have had smart meters for a long time.

Where I work our electricity price changes at least every 30 minutes, it might change even more frequently than that now. We have >3MW connection.

Years ago UK wholesale gas prices were the price driver but now it is Irish wind.
Nowadays on a windy day we can get free electricity.
They work our plant every night to make the most of cheaper electricity.
They look at tomorrows predicted price to decide if we will work during the day and we rarely operate during the evening peak due to price.

The plant is part of a "smart grid" system also. In less than a seconds notice the grid can shut down the plant automatically to stabilise the load or frequency of the grid.



https://www.semopx.com/
http://smartgriddashboard.eirgrid.com/

I’m sure I’ve probably worked in your plant

unkel

Lumen wrote: »

I don't think this is a pipedream, all the tech is available from what I can tell.

Plenty of pilot schemes around the world where exactly this is already being tested

The only technical issue here is the protocols to bi-directional charge. This is available in CHAdeMO DC charging but not yet in CCS DC charging or in any AC charging

SlowBlowin

I am often bemused by the frequent stories of charging from the grid, storing and selling back to the grid as its totally illogical with current technology and does not work.

Grid connected batteries are great for peaking, but it you want to sell electricity you need to sell at the time of production if money is what you are after.

Edit: To clarify it does work technically but not financially, factor in the losses though charging, storing, then inverting it makes no sense you need a good 30% price difference, you need to factor in the heavy cycle on the battery. Once the cost of the equipment wear and tear, its a heavy discharge process, the maths rules it out on a purely financial footing. By the way I am talking about at consumer level, you and me.

unkel

SlowBlowin wrote: »

To clarify it does work technically but not financially.

I understand where you are coming from, with your extensive experience in home attached (lead acid) storage going back years. But you are wrong.

If you own an EV, you essentially have a free large lithium battery at your disposal that has an 8 year warranty (but will last much longer even with many extra cycles because of vehicle to grid charging)

A article published yesterday shows that a Tesla Model S battery loses about 1% capacity per year. Which is astonishingly low

Linky

SlowBlowin

unkel wrote: »

I understand where you are coming from, with your extensive experience in home attached (lead acid) storage going back years. But you are wrong.

If you own an EV, you essentially have a free large lithium battery at your disposal that has an 8 year warranty (but will last much longer even with many extra cycles because of vehicle to grid charging)

A article published yesterday shows that a Tesla Model S battery loses about 1% capacity per year. Which is astonishingly low

Linky

What part is wrong ? Its just maths, its not cost effective if the off peak is 10% cheaper and you lose 10% of it it the process where the profit ?

SlowBlowin

To clarify if the whole process of taking electricity from the grid, converting it to DC at the right level, charging the battery, then discharging the battery, and inverting was 100% efficient then it makes sense.

But its not.

Lithium batteries are very efficient and can achieve up to 99%, but with a very careful charging regime. At the levels batteries are charged at for vehicles, its not 99%. Neither is the inverter process, or the conversion from AC to DC in the first place.

All I am saying is that when you factor in the losses in the whole process it does not make sense till there is a very large differential. If people charged their cars at 10c per KWh and sold at 12c they would lose money, without factoring in the harm on the battery or up front costs.

SlowBlowin

Here you go, a really nice analysis of how efficient changing a Tesla is, how much you put in to how much you get out:

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/charging-efficiency.122072/

So thats 15% loss one way.

Edit: I followed the link, yes I am a Tesla fan, love their batteries and know how good the degradation is. Thats not the losses I am talking about, I am talking the efficiency of the process. The thread had discussed buying low, storing, selling high.

ELM327

SlowBlowin wrote: »

Here you go, a really nice analysis of how efficient changing a Tesla is, how much you put in to how much you get out:

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/charging-efficiency.122072/

So thats 15% loss one way.

I really don't think Tesla should be your go to case for efficiency.
With the exception of the M3, the rest of the range are very high wh/km

unkel

SlowBlowin wrote: »

What part is wrong ? Its just maths, its not cost effective if the off peak is 10% cheaper and you lose 10% of it it the process where the profit ?

Who says peak is 10% cheaper? Already night rate is about 55% cheaper than day rate in Ireland and I wouldn't be surprised if within 10 years the cheapest rate would be about €0.02 and the most expensive rate about €1. That's 98% cheaper...

unkel

Peak electricity price in Texas hit $9/kWh at some point this year

That's not a typo. Nine dollars per kilowatthour. Not nine cents.

Linky

SlowBlowin

OK, lets not talk about what might come in the future.

At the moment, if you have an electric car and you want to make a profit selling back to the grid, at todays tarrifs, in Ireland, it does not make financial sense.

Of course if the electricity market goes they way you predict and as battery chemistry improves things might change, but at the moment I am not wrong, thats the way the maths is.

SlowBlowin

You also need to factor the the electricity you are selling is not renewable, so the price you get selling back to the grid is not the same level that you get for say solar you sell back, its a lower rate.

pdpmur

unkel wrote: »

If you own an EV, you essentially have a free large lithium battery at your disposal that has an 8 year warranty (but will last much longer even with many extra cycles because of vehicle to grid charging)

Er, I think the car manufacturers might have a thing or two to say about this.
Current battery warranties are based on the presumption that batteries are discharged during driving. If the traction battery is discharged and charged whilst the car is parked up then this eats into the battery lifespan. I don't see the manufacturers honouring the warranty of current cars for Vehicle-to-grid use, and the warranty of future cars would likely be predicated on a maximum no. of charge/discharge cycles. There might even be a helpful egg timer type icon built in to the car infotainment system to show the slow ebbing away of the battery warranty - (pour encourager, donchaknow...)

ted1

unkel wrote: »

Peak electricity price in Texas hit $9/kWh at some point this year

That's not a typo. Nine dollars per kilowatthour. Not nine cents.

Linky

That’s wholesale. , our wholesale price often exceeds the residential price. But is capped at €1,000 MWh

ted1

pdpmur wrote: »

Er, I think the car manufacturers might have a thing or two to say about this.

They support it: https://www.nissan-global.com/EN/TECHNOLOGY/OVERVIEW/vehicle_to_home.html

d8491prj5boyvg

ted1 wrote: »

* we can create surplus.

Once we reach the max SNSP we curtail our wind by shutting it off.

Irrelevant to that poster's argument, to be fair. Night time demand - ( necessary thermal power + wind [within snsp] ) can still lead to excess supply.

d8491prj5boyvg

basill wrote: »

If everyone increases consumption at what is considered today to be off peak will that not be a new peak and therefore prices get jacked up? Also are we not comparing apples and oranges at this point in time.....There are very few EVs in this country. Once fossil fuelled vehicles are taxed out then surely demand will increase for electricity with a corresponding increase in price. If you have an EV then enjoy the price differentials, VRT exemptions etc as they won't last for long once the masses come along and the government exploits this for its tax gain.

If we all shift to the same period, yes. Ideally we would face dynamic pricing that reflects expected supply and demand. You might have to book your time slot ahead to get a good rate. But if you're late and it's looking busy and we need a peaking unit to serve your load as well you'll either pay handsomely for the privilege or just shift to a cheaper slot.

It's like Ryanair seat pricing. A very fair system in this context IMO. If you're a commuter, or someone who relies on it, you'll book the cheap slots in advance. At the moment we are all putting the system under huge strain for frivolous things when both the householder and the system could be made better off.

unkel

SlowBlowin wrote: »

OK, lets not talk about what might come in the future.

This whole thread is about what might come in the future!

SlowBlowin

unkel wrote: »

This whole thread is about what might come in the future!

Oh OK. In the future it might make sense at the moment it doesn't, hows that ?

Heroditas

discostu1 wrote: »

Short term circa 2021 no Supplier will want to do anything other than the CRU proposals, time of use billing for any large business would require significant IT input. Remember 2021 is also the year that by Law FIT comes into being. So IF suppliers were to pay for that as well the IT would be extremely expensive. DUKE energy in the U.S are an interesting example of what Unkel is talking about but I think we are probably 6 to 8 years away. PLUS at some stage some politician will howl about cooking the dinner/tea at 17.00 to 19.00 to fierce dear (I'm hearing a Kerry Accent though they do say they have their dinner in the middle of the day down that way )

The smart metering project is costing suppliers millions as it is. Some will be offering additional products ASAP.

unkel

SlowBlowin wrote: »

Oh OK. In the future it might make sense at the moment it doesn't, hows that ?

Depends. It doesn't make sense to buy a battery to use for home attached storage. Not even if you get one with the €1,000 SEAI subsidy. How's that?

If on the other hand you got your battery for free it's a different story. I already have an EV, so I'm not buying any battery. And I also have 20kWh of lead acid batteries that I got for free, waiting to be installed as home attached storage

I agree of course with your other arguments about it not being efficient. But if the battery is free to use, even the current saving of €0.10 per kWh night rate over day rate would make it well worth your while to store up at night and use during the day. Average household uses about 3,000kWh during the day, so that's a saving of €300 per year. And of course a multiple of that when the wedge between the higher rate and the lower rate will get bigger. This will happen, it's a certainty

cruizer101

unkel wrote: »

Who says peak is 10% cheaper? Already night rate is about 55% cheaper than day rate in Ireland and I wouldn't be surprised if within 10 years the cheapest rate would be about €0.02 and the most expensive rate about €1. That's 98% cheaper...

I can't imagine you would ever get that much of a difference. As soon as there is a significant difference consumers will modify their usage to avail of the cheapest tariff meaning the low demand time will have greater demand so the prices won't get that low.
The demand curve will naturally level out to a certain extent so extreme price differences will not exist.

unkel

cruizer101 wrote: »

I can't imagine you would ever get that much of a difference. As soon as there is a significant difference consumers will modify their usage to avail of the cheapest tariff

There are pratical limits to that, you don't want to work 2AM - 7AM office hours 7 days a week, do you? :pac:

The difference between high and low rate is already significantly bigger in other countries than it is here, as I have pointed out. As we will bring to the grid vastly bigger resources of renewable electricity (wind and sun mainly), this electricity will become very cheap. You can quote me on it, but the discount of the cheapest rate as a fraction of the most expensive rate is going to be far bigger than the current 55% discount.

SlowBlowin

unkel wrote: »

Depends. It doesn't make sense to buy a battery to use for home attached storage. Not even if you get one with the €1,000 SEAI subsidy. How's that?

If on the other hand you got your battery for free it's a different story. I already have an EV, so I'm not buying any battery. And I also have 20kWh of lead acid batteries that I got for free, waiting to be installed as home attached storage

I agree of course with your other arguments about it not being efficient. But if the battery is free to use, even the current saving of €0.10 per kWh night rate over day rate would make it well worth your while to store up at night and use during the day. Average household uses about 3,000kWh during the day, so that's a saving of €300 per year. And of course a multiple of that when the wedge between the higher rate and the lower rate will get bigger. This will happen, it's a certainty

You are now talking about something totally different, YES it makes sense to use it yourself. Thats one of things I do in the winter.

My post said I was bemused by the suggestion (yes I know loads of sources quote it, and I used to believe it till I did the maths) that buying, storing and selling at a consumer level works, it does not.

If I have something thats "free", like your battery, I certainly don't use that as a reason to abuse it. If it were on lease, thats another matter, abuse away. Remember one full deep cycle on a grid attached car feeding back into the grid flat out, is probably 3 days normal use in terms of battery degradation.

If I were you I would stick with your plans for a separate house system, and charge that with solar, use your own power and sell any excess to the grid or use it for hot water, makes far more sense.

And on another point, more relevant to the thread title, my view on electricity prices it that they will go the other way, and prices will rapidly head towards zero. Along side this, your connection fee to the grid will rise to compensate. As more and more electricity is being produced in a decentralised manner (solar homes, windmills etc), it will be the grid transport that provides the majority of the value/income.

cruizer101

I don't, but thats not to stop companies bringing it in if the difference becomes significant, call centres here for Australian customer service and vice versa

My point is when electric cars become more common and when your average joe is able to charge up his car/battery storage cheaply and sell it back to the grid for a profit then extreme price differences won't exist because someone will see an opportunity to make money and take it. They will buy the cheap electricity thus increasing demand at that time and sell it when prices are high thus increasing supply at that time so the curve will naturally balance out. As long as someone can make money out of reselling the electricity it will happen.

Think of firewood, very little demand for it in the summer but prices don't drop that much because if they did people would buy it and re-sell in winter.

Electric cars and cheap battery storage alongside smart meter and being able to sell back to grid basically means anyone can store electricity the same as any other good. The cheaper battery storage becomes the less variation there will be in the price of electricity.
Battery storage has a non-insignificant cost to it currently so there would be variation, but more electric vehicles on roads will change that.

SlowBlowin

Unkel, what lead acid did you get ? That was quite a score.

I was offered a huge amount of LiPo the other day, my friend bought a container load, he deals in tech excess stock. Trouble is that I would have to make a 72v system, new hardware, with them as they are 36v medical units about the size of a car battery, I am still trying to make my mind up as to whether I should go for them.