Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

BonnieSituation

Seth Brundle wrote: »

It will be sold in Britain as they can easily change the labelling rules (obviously not in the EU).
Expect the Tories to tell the riff raff that they should consider themselves lucky to be able to consume such fine food at such a reasonable cost

Yeah. And off they pop. They can shovel any old crap into themselves. Not our concern.

BonnieSituation

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't see this being a problem for them.

I used to work for a firm doing calibrations on medical devices. We'd import them from Poland, QC them and slack stickers with "Made in the UK" on them replete with the Union Flag.

They'd be daft if they were happy to sell it in supermarkets with US flags on it or labelled as being from the US in fine print.

Daft yes. But once they start the messing their food becomes garbage and it'll stay on the island.

BonnieSituation

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Rumours of a possible Tesla gigafactory to be built in the UK, great for RHD countries.

So us, Cyprus, South Africa, Malta, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand etc...

So, I'd imagine they'll be tariffed to high heaven so that rules out us, Japan, Cyprus and Malta.

How are the EV markets in the rest?
---

Tooling LHD and RHD EVs is a lot easier than ICE cars given their mechanics. Britain having a Tesla factory isn't exactly the great news you think it is...

Sam Russell

Deleted User wrote: »

Rumours of a possible Tesla gigafactory to be built in the UK, great for RHD countries.

Tesla make batteries as well as cars. It is a major growth platform for them producing megawatt batteries for grid storage.

black forest

The Scottish Parliament is collecting data and submissions of specialists as well of politicians on their website.

https://twitter.com/sp_european/status/1268166055593160706?s=21


Direct link to all submissions, talks and documents.

There are nine new submissions from 20.05.20 and a report from a meeting with David McAllister MEP, UK Coordination Group in the European Parliament, from 26.05.20. For some reason (wrong format) i can not access the paper from the meeting with Philip Rycroft, Former Permanent Secretary, Department for Exiting the European Union.

But the paper with McAllister alone is quite sobering. Just a few quotes:

I will kick off with a five-minute introduction on where we stand with regard to the on-going negotiations. As the convener mentioned, I chair the UK co-ordination group in the European Parliament. That has replaced the Brexit steering group, which, as you might remember, was led by Guy Verhofstadt, who is a Belgian Liberal MEP...There will be no more cherry picking. We experienced that over many years and, in the end, that was not satisfactory for both sides. I say that as somebody who feels very close at heart to the UK but who sees that, unfortunately, our ambition has not been matched by that of the UK Government—at least until now....As the UK Government is still determined not to extend the transition period, we have three things to do in parallel by 31 December. First, we need to implement the withdrawal agreement, which is utterly important for the negotiations of the future partnership. The EU will be vigilant regarding the implementation of the withdrawal agreement, and the European Parliament, in particular, will closely scrutinise that aspect of the negotiations. In the context of the withdrawal agreement, the protocol on Northern Ireland of course remains the biggest challenge, considering its technical complexity and political sensitivity.

Secondly, we have to prepare our businesses and citizens on both sides for the changes that will take place on 1 January 2021 whether or not we have an agreement.

The third thing that we have to do is negotiate the future agreement. We still believe that it is wise to negotiate a comprehensive economic and security partnership with an overall governance framework, as agreed by the EU and the UK in the political declaration of 17 October 2019. As you well know, there are four fields on which we are still at odds, which are the level playing field, fisheries, co-operation on justice and police issues and governance overall....

We are way behind on the talks—and the timeframe was already ambitious. At this point, we should have been preparing for the fifth round of talks, but instead we are on the third round. I cannot tell the committee what will happen in June. Both sides now know that it is very serious. However, let me be clear that the current schedule and the pressing timescale are a result of the UK’s choice....We cannot compare the UK with Canada or South Korea. There is a big difference, because the UK is in our immediate neighbourhood and the world’s largest single market is the most important trading partner for the UK. Our objective is to ensure open and fair competition to benefit businesses and companies on both sides. We are offering the UK something that is unprecedented for a third country that is not a member of the single market—access, no quotas and no tariffs. That, of course, comes at a price, which is that we do not start a race to the bottom when it comes to standards on the environment, consumer protection, state subsidies and other matters.

Lots to read but now i am off to the live press conference of Barnier right now here:


https://audiovisual.ec.europa.eu/en/ebs/live/1

ancapailldorcha

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Daft yes. But once they start the messing their food becomes garbage and it'll stay on the island.

That's their problem and it's a perfect example of the value of the customs union and single market to the remaining 27 EU member states.

CelticRambler

black forest wrote: »

Lots to read but now i am off to the live press conference of Barnier right now here:
https://audiovisual.ec.europa.eu/en/ebs/live/1

Lovely bit of trolling there by Barnier regarding the joint political declaration: "this document is available in all languages, including English, and is not difficult to read" ... and name-checking Johnson several times.

CrabRevolution

Headshot wrote: »

It's quite ironic that the majority of British farmers voted for brexit, what goes around comes around

They reap what they sow. If nothing else they deserve it for not stepping back and realising that brexit was being sold to everyone as a catch all cure for everything.

I'd ask a rhetorical "Did they really think that their interests would be the highest priority in any post brexit deal" but I reckon they honestly did think that. I know it's a bigger more nuanced topic, but farmers to me are among the more myopic sectors. Their attitude is "I've little intention of changing what I do, or of ever considering the overall economics of what I'm doing. I need to earn a living, but it's up to the state to find that money and give it to me". They're the most protected industry out there (not necessarily a bad thing) through tariffs, food standards, CAP payments, grants, schemes etc. but seem to constantly be demanding more.

A great example I saw was early in the Covid pandemic, the Farming independent had on one page an article saying "Collapse in demand for agri-produce, severe financial crisis imminent", yet on the next page there was a headline of "This pandemic will make the public appreciate just how much they depend on us". At no stage did any editor seem to see the contradiction in those 2 stories?

I know they're just trying to continue their livelihoods, but my point is more that agriculture gets so much more leeway and privileges than other sectors that it's probably inevitable that they thought they were a special case in the UK.

CelticRambler

Did I miss the discussion on this forum, or did ye all miss it over there on ground-zero?

Stormont backs calling for extension to Brexit transition period

The Northern Ireland assembly has unexpectedly voted in favour of calling for an extension to the Brexit transition period, arguing that the UK government cannot impose complex border checks down the Irish Sea while Britain is occupied with the coronavirus crisis.

followed closely by:

Business leaders demand delay to Irish Sea border checks

Northern Ireland business groups are calling for a six month delay to Brexit checks in the Irish Sea saying that Boris Johnson’s late admission that he is legally obliged to implement them has left them no time to prepare for the December cliff edge.

They have also hit out at Downing Street secrecy, saying they are refusing to discuss the plans with the very people that needed to implement them.

ancapailldorcha

CelticRambler wrote: »

Did I miss the discussion on this forum, or did ye all miss it over there on ground-zero?

Stormont backs calling for extension to Brexit transition period


followed closely by:

Business leaders demand delay to Irish Sea border checks

No, I remember seeing that. It's just another example of the folly the current government is insisting that we embark on. The common sense approach, ironically is to get the extension.

It's going to be a bad look for the British if they renege on this agreement simply because they were that desperate to crash out.

Sam Russell

Sam Russell wrote: »

Tesla make batteries as well as cars. It is a major growth platform for them producing megawatt batteries for grid storage.

The second part of the article refers to that as well, so the possibility is for grid storage systems or powerwall as well as vehicles.

johnnyskeleton

Headshot wrote: »

It's quite ironic that the majority of British farmers voted for brexit, what goes around comes around

I saw it explained quite well on the Graham Hughes Pubcast where he was chatting to a Welsh farmer. The example used was that of ear tags for sheep, which cost a pound each, require time and effort to get done and basically replace the old school spraying the wool to identify the sheep. But it makes it easier to trace the sheep.

When such regulations are brought in, the farmers grumbled but, rather than say have a grant system to pay for the tags or to explain the benefits to the farmers, the local politicians (tory, labour, PC, all of them basically) would blame the EU. "It's not us making you do it, it's the nasty EU". This was repeated dozens of times over dozens of measures, and eventually farmers were left with the view that the local MPs were all on their side, but the evil EU was forcing them to bring in unnecessary regulations for stupid Eurocratic reasons etc.

This of course applies to everyone in Britain in some ways; it's not the Tory party policies that have caused you to lose your job, it's free movement of cheap Polish workers. We would like to give more money to the NHS, but we have to pay all this money to the EU. The EU was a punching bag that never responded, and it became too easy to use this excuse to dismiss people's concerns.

I think these farmers will have to experience full brexit to realise that most of these regulations are probably going to be kept anyway now that they are out (though the UK is insisting that they be entitled to change them if they wish), and that the benefits that they took for granted, such as subsidies are going to be axed by the Tories!

CelticRambler

CelticRambler wrote: »

Did I miss the discussion on this forum, or did ye all miss it over there on ground-zero?

Stormont backs calling for extension to Brexit transition period


followed closely by:

Business leaders demand delay to Irish Sea border checks

It's really unfortunate for Northern Ireland that it's stuck in a union that won't give a toss about its wishes.

Igotadose

Deleted User wrote: »

It's really unfortunate for Northern Ireland that it's stuck in a union that won't give a toss about its wishes.

They can fix that though.

Igotadose

Igotadose wrote: »

They can fix that though.

If Westminster allows them a vote?

There is an exceptional irony to Brexit that I will never not appreciate.

Sam Russell

Deleted User wrote: »

If Westminster allows them a vote?

There is an exceptional irony to Brexit that I will never not appreciate.

If the NI Assembly vote for a border poll, I do not think the NI Secretary of State could deny them one.

Enzokk

The latest round of negotiations didn't seem to result in much progress,

UK backtracking on key Brexit commitments, says Michel Barnier

EU CHIEF NEGOTIATOR Michel Barnier said there has been no real progress made in post-Brexit trade talks and accused the UK of backtracking on a key commitment.

Barnier said at the end of the fourth round of negotiations that the UK team had continually sought “to distance themselves” from the political declaration agreed by Boris Johnson.

David Frost, Barnier’s British counterpart, acknowledged there had been only “limited” progress in the talks, which were the final ones before a potentially make-or-break high-level summit later this month.

And Frost conceded that they are “close to reaching the limits” of anything achievable by the remote formal rounds of talks, which are taking place virtually because of the coronavirus pandemic.

I saw a tweet somewhere and cannot find it now, both sides are convinced that the other side will compromise at the last moment. The Bank Of England has told High Street Banks to prepare for a no-deal Brexit as well,

Brace yourselves for no-deal Brexit, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey tells big high street banks

Leading high street banks have been warned by the Bank of England to bolster their planning for a no-deal Brexit as worries grow that Britain will fail to strike a trade deal with the European Union.

It is understood that Andrew Bailey, the Bank’s governor, told bank bosses in a conference call on Tuesday to push ahead with their Brexit contingency preparations.

There is scepticism about the ability of London and Brussels to strike a free trade deal before the UK’s transition period expires at the end of the year and there are fears that a disorderly exit could send shockwaves through the country’s financial system. Talks to address the future relationship between Britain and the European bloc have made little progress, raising the prospect that a deal may not be reached.

With polling numbers falling for Johnson and Starmer gaining ground along with Labour against the Tories, I actually think it will entrench their position for a no-deal. The confluence of events will make the UK leaving without a deal the most likely outcome and them siding with the US for a trade deal and to save them.

BonnieSituation

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

That's their problem and it's a perfect example of the value of the customs union and single market to the remaining 27 EU member states.

Absolutely.

reslfj

Enzokk wrote: »

... both sides are convinced that the other side will compromise at the last moment....

I'm far for sure all of the 27 countries are ready to compromise much. The ever shifting UK government and the less than truthful statements from the UK seem to have worn down the willingness to accept any major concessions.

We have other and much bigger problems in the EU27 (and EEA) corona and post-corona.
Brexit is just one problem too many to be take seriously.

If the UK doesn't move its positions much and doesn't ask for a longer transition period, I think the game is effectively over by September.

"No FTA" it will be.

Not much else will then be agreed, except maybe security, Air Safety and an agreements on direct flights UK <-> EU

It may not even be in EU's best interest to restart London/Heathrow anytime soon as international HUB, when FRA, MUC, CDG, AMS, MAD has much spare capacity in 2021 and beyond.

Lars

CelticRambler

Enzokk wrote: »

With polling numbers falling for Johnson and Starmer gaining ground along with Labour against the Tories, I actually think it will entrench their position for a no-deal. The confluence of events will make the UK leaving without a deal the most likely outcome and them siding with the US for a trade deal and to save them.

Unless ... unless rising support for Starmer and falling support for Johnson prompts the soft-Brexit/closet-Remainer Tories to reconsider his position! It wouldn't surprise me if that what was Barnier's intention in hammering home the fact - the cold, hard, ink-on-paper fact - that Johnson approved the Political Declaration as written, that he signed his name at the bottom on behalf of the United Kingdom.

There are many Tories living in constituencies in Southeastern England who had and undoubtedly still have a positive relationship with Europe, as individuals and as business owners, and they have non-Etonian MPs representing them in Westminster.

When you stack up NI and Scotland, alongside increasingly concerned Welsh MP, it won't take a great number of soft-Brexit Tories to start demanding of Johnson the "oven-ready Brexit" that got them elected. And if (when) he can't, it wouldn't surprise me to see the HoC #takebackcontrol in the same way they did under May's premiership. A well-founded Starmer argument (put forward at just the right time) could be sufficient to crystalise the simmering unease already evident within the Tory party.

Sam Russell

CelticRambler wrote: »

Unless ... unless rising support for Starmer and falling support for Johnson prompts the soft-Brexit/closet-Remainer Tories to reconsider his position! It wouldn't surprise me if that what was Barnier's intention in hammering home the fact - the cold, hard, ink-on-paper fact - that Johnson approved the Political Declaration as written, that he signed his name at the bottom on behalf of the United Kingdom.

There are many Tories living in constituencies in Southeastern England who had and undoubtedly still have a positive relationship with Europe, as individuals and as business owners, and they have non-Etonian MPs representing them in Westminster.

When you stack up NI and Scotland, alongside increasingly concerned Welsh MP, it won't take a great number of soft-Brexit Tories to start demanding of Johnson the "oven-ready Brexit" that got them elected. And if (when) he can't, it wouldn't surprise me to see the HoC #takebackcontrol in the same way they did under May's premiership. A well-founded Starmer argument (put forward at just the right time) could be sufficient to crystalise the simmering unease already evident within the Tory party.

For that to happen, there would have to be major public support throughout the country, plus Scotland and NI getting very vociferous from all sections of their assemblies.

I do not see it.

CelticRambler

Sam Russell wrote: »

For that to happen, there would have to be major public support throughout the country, plus Scotland and NI getting very vociferous from all sections of their assemblies.

Scotland and NI are already asking for an extension; and thanks to the vagaries of FPTP, it only needs a significant number of individual MPs in England to decide that England's interest is not served by rushing into a no-deal Brexit while the country is fighting a second coronavirus wave. The opinion of their constituents is irrelevant!

Bit cynical

CelticRambler wrote: »

Scotland and NI are already asking for an extension; and thanks to the vagaries of FPTP, it only needs a significant number of individual MPs in England to decide that England's interest is not served by rushing into a no-deal Brexit while the country is fighting a second coronavirus wave. The opinion of their constituents is irrelevant!

Politically it would help Johnson for this to happen like when he was forced by MPs to ask for the extension last year and then many of those same MPs were booted out by the electorate.

Enzokk

Bit cynical wrote: »

Politically it would help Johnson for this to happen like when he was forced by MPs to ask for the extension last year and then many of those same MPs were booted out by the electorate.

I don't see how he cedes to NI, Scotland and Wales on this but rammed Brexit through without consultation. Like you say the only way he asks for an extension is if he is forced, but he won the majority by telling people he will never ask for an extension. Talk about a rock and a hard place.

The last time his MP's defied him he tossed them out of the party as well, not just new MP's but people who had been in parliament for decades. He would have to do the same if he wants to keep them on point for the ridiculous things Cummings has planned. Look at Steve Baker pointing out the stupidity of the Rees-Mogg queue, yet he voted for it.

Johnson will be hoisted by his own petard with this.

CelticRambler

Enzokk wrote: »

I don't see how he cedes to NI, Scotland and Wales on this but rammed Brexit through without consultation. Like you say the only way he asks for an extension is if he is forced, but he won the majority by telling people he will never ask for an extension. Talk about a rock and a hard place.

And between the rock and the hard place are, I believe, a lot of half-decent Tories who will come to the realisation that Johnson is the problem, not the solution. His (mis)handling of everything to do with the coronavirus outbreak coupled with a surgical dissection of his meaningless rhetoric by Starmer and a consequent shift in opinion poll data could (should) be enough for the true party faithful to decide that it's time for him to leave No.10

We've already seen how easily he can be manipulated - by the ERG, by Varadkar, by Macron - so it's no great leap to think that a posse of soft Brexiter Tories could manoeuvre him into another do or die situation.

Dyr

CelticRambler wrote: »

And between the rock and the hard place are, I believe, a lot of half-decent Tories who will come to the realisation that Johnson is the problem, not the solution. His (mis)handling of everything to do with the coronavirus outbreak coupled with a surgical dissection of his meaningless rhetoric by Starmer and a consequent shift in opinion poll data could (should) be enough for the true party faithful to decide that it's time for him to leave No.10

We've already seen how easily he can be manipulated - by the ERG, by Varadkar, by Macron - so it's no great leap to think that a posse of soft Brexiter Tories could manoeuvre him into another do or die situation.

He has an unassailable majority for the next four years, he's made a complete and utter balls of the coronovirus emergency, he's been calmly manhandled by Starmer in Leaders Questions (albeit recovering from a bad dose and without his sizeable squad of cheerleaders behind him) and he's still ahead in the polls both as a party and as a leader. I wouldnt get too excited.

The Reality is that Johnson is not the problem for Britain, he's is the result of the problem.

First Up

Bambi wrote:

The Reality is that Johnson is not the problem for Britain, he's is the result of the problem.

Same with Trump. Countries deserve the leaders they choose.

Professor Moriarty

CelticRambler wrote: »

And between the rock and the hard place are, I believe, a lot of half-decent Tories who will come to the realisation that Johnson is the problem, not the solution. His (mis)handling of everything to do with the coronavirus outbreak coupled with a surgical dissection of his meaningless rhetoric by Starmer and a consequent shift in opinion poll data could (should) be enough for the true party faithful to decide that it's time for him to leave No.10

We've already seen how easily he can be manipulated - by the ERG, by Varadkar, by Macron - so it's no great leap to think that a posse of soft Brexiter Tories could manoeuvre him into another do or die situation.

Who are these soft Brexiter Tories? Can't see very many in the cabinet or on the backbenches.

Sam Russell

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Who are these soft Brexiter Tories? Can't see very many in the cabinet or on the backbenches.

Margaret Thatcher did not resign willingly, she was ejected by a palace revolt. Johnson will go when it is obvious he has lost the Tories significant support in the country. The GE gave them a large insurmountable majority in the HoC, but there are many other elections that will tell. Local election losses will lose them councils and this will mean growing cries from those councils for funding and this will increase to a crescendo that will be hard to resist.

The Covid19 mishandling has cost many lives, and comparisons with the rest of Europe will be made. The Tory Gov will be judged harshly. The 'heroes' of the NHS will be vociferous in condemnation of the shortcomings that caused those deaths. All this will cause street protests resulting in a 'winter of discontent' that did for James Callaghan and just as the Poll Tax riots did for Thatcher. The fallout from a No Deal Brexit will do for Johnson.

A new leader means a new beginning.

Joe_ Public

Bambi wrote: »

He has an unassailable majority for the next four years, he's made a complete and utter balls of the coronovirus emergency, he's been calmly manhandled by Starmer in Leaders Questions (albeit recovering from a bad dose and without his sizeable squad of cheerleaders behind him) and he's still ahead in the polls both as a party and as a leader. I wouldnt get too excited.

The Reality is that Johnson is not the problem for Britain, he's is the result of the problem.

But would brexit have ever been delivered without Johnson's critical support? I very much doubt it. They have much wider problems but he's definitely a quite big part of it in my book, the way - with the aid of his personal steve bannon - he was able to forge a powerful alliance between the soft and hard elements of his party and populace in general. He looks unassailable at present but i wouldnt be shocked to see that change. The tories love their leaders when they are winning but can turn very quickly as soon as the veneer starts to slip. They did with thatcher and they can do it with Johnson too.