Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Enzokk

ArthurDayne wrote: »

If I’m being honest, I don’t think Johnson ever genuinely didn’t see the merit in it. He is not a dyed-in-the-wool Brexiteer — simply someone who has oscillated from pro-EU sentiments to anti-EU sentiments over the years; the direction of oscillation often seeming to depend on who his audience was or which view appeared better for his own career advancement at a given time.

As it so happened, anti-EU rhetoric and — with it — anti free movement rhetoric was what got him into power. Sadly therefore, I don’t see him changing tack unless a moment comes where his stance threatens his position as leader. In other words, he will stick with whatever keeps him popular . . . but if public opinion were to change, Johnson would probably follow.

I agree with most of your post, but I see him closer to being a Brexiteer than a moderate. He is a known liar so it is hard to see know what he believes, but I think we should look at where he started all of this. He started by writing lies about the EU and in the main this antagonism towards the EU has continued throughout his career, to the point where his government refused to join the procurement scheme when it would have saved lives. He put ideology ahead of lives, that screams ultra Brexiteer to me.

As for his future stance, I don't know if he can rid himself of Cummings and Gove and Rees-Mogg and the others he has surrounded himself with who people would think is more ideological towards Brexit than he is. Basically he would need to fire everyone close to him that got him elected and the cabinet and get the moderate elements of the party in to change tack. The problem then is Gove with Cummings would try to lead a coup against him, so he stuck the knife in and there is only one way forward for him and that is to twist.

CrabRevolution

Tell me how wrote: »

It'll be defining in the sense that the Conservatives will probably use this to grant some sort of dispensation to members of various medical fields which they will sing about from the roof tops thus absolving themselves for inaction in early March and to whitewash the fact that they have instigated austerity measures over the last 10 years.

The media will be entirely complicit in this and will publish any stories about now supporting the NHS like they have just appointed a private nurse to care for every household in Britain.

I expect it to be spun along the lines of "The contribution of these foreign medical staff to the NHS is a vindication of our wonderful now points based immigration system"

Enzokk

Rishi Sunak was asked if the projections are as terrible as they are, why still risk a no-deal FTA? He swerved the question by saying the conversations are ongoing and he is sure a deal can be reached. That wasn't answering why risk it, but I guess his boss would have been happy with the answer.

Enzokk

On the question of an extension, seems the policy is to continue on regardless of the consequences of leaving on the 31st December with the threat of no FTA agreed,

https://twitter.com/SebDance/status/1250391303428476929?s=20

This would be foolish in the extreme, all countries will face a recession due to coronavirus and even if it will only be a temporary hit, adding to it by leaving without a properly negotiated FTA is madness. I have predicted the fall of politicians many times on here but if Johnson survives the fallout from his government handling of the pandemic and he steers them off the cliff without a FTA or even just a basic one, surely he cannot survive that?

Leroy42

Enzokk wrote: »

On the question of an extension, seems the policy is to continue on regardless of the consequences of leaving on the 31st December with the threat of no FTA agreed,

https://twitter.com/SebDance/status/1250391303428476929?s=20

This would be foolish in the extreme, all countries will face a recession due to coronavirus and even if it will only be a temporary hit, adding to it by leaving without a properly negotiated FTA is madness. I have predicted the fall of politicians many times on here but if Johnson survives the fallout from his government handling of the pandemic and he steers them off the cliff without a FTA or even just a basic one, surely he cannot survive that?

If a No Deal scenario is as predicted then this is actually the perfect time to go through with it. Use the cover of the worldwide recession and the fallout from Covid so that Brexit cannot be held to blame.

If they wait another year or two, and then fall out then they run the real risk of being answerable. In addition, they will be hoping that the EU are too consumed with their own issues of trying to get back after the Covid issue to care too much about NI border and the rest.

BonnieSituation

Leroy42 wrote: »

If a No Deal scenario is as predicted then this is actually the perfect time to go through with it. Use the cover of the worldwide recession and the fallout from Covid so that Brexit cannot be held to blame.

If they wait another year or two, and then fall out then they run the real risk of being answerable. In addition, they will be hoping that the EU are too consumed with their own issues of trying to get back after the Covid issue to care too much about NI border and the rest.

And I say that they know that too.

First Up

They can blame Chinese bats all they like but the UK public will still expect the government to look after their interests.

As well as leaving the Single Market, the UK has excluded itself from the EU's protection and recovery programmes. They will be judged on how they manage without them.

The Chinese bats won't be running for office.

BonnieSituation

The UK public have consistently voted against their own interests since 2010.

No reason to believe that they won't keep that record going.

First Up

BonnieSituation wrote:

The UK public have consistently voted against their own interests since 2010.

No reason to believe that they won't keep that record going.

Then they deserve what they get.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-52300349
A farming group has chartered a plane to fly in staff from Romania so the European workers can help train its seasonal UK workforce.

Grower G's has recruited 180 skilled workers who will land on Thursday.

In the past three weeks the company has recruited nearly 500 UK-based pickers to work from the end of April.

I'm not sure which is the maddest part of this story, the fact that they have to import people to train "pickers" or the fact that they are flying them in in defiance of travel restrictions!

Enzokk

More noise coming out of No.10 that they will not consider a extension,

https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1250756247244148738?s=20

But Lewis Goodall is of the view that its not much to listen to now as the important noises will only be heard closer to the end of June.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1250760040937598978?s=20

The tweet that made me perk up in his thread was this one,

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1250764648443502593?s=20

None of this is to say that extension is guaranteed. economic effects of Covid might be less than anticipated or unwind quickly (though that seems unlikely by the summer). A school of thought in Downing St that this is the perfect time to pressure EU for a deal might win out...

So don't listen to Downing street until Johnson is back and we are closer to the cliff edge again, but Downing street thinks this is the time to pressure the EU into a deal when all countries are looking to avoid a crises. Now it may be true that this is the time to hide the UK recession from Brexit within the coronavirus pandemic fallout, but at the same time it is the right time for the EU to deal with the fallout of a UK exit without a FTA when they are already giving out cash to deal with the pandemic. It may be the best time to deal with supply chains and building them back up with the UK removed if you are busy rebuilding due to the coronavirus effort. The UK should be careful what they wish for here.

BonnieSituation

Enzokk wrote: »

More noise coming out of No.10 that they will not consider a extension,

https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1250756247244148738?s=20

But Lewis Goodall is of the view that its not much to listen to now as the important noises will only be heard closer to the end of June.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1250760040937598978?s=20

The tweet that made me perk up in his thread was this one,

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1250764648443502593?s=20



So don't listen to Downing street until Johnson is back and we are closer to the cliff edge again, but Downing street thinks this is the time to pressure the EU into a deal when all countries are looking to avoid a crises. Now it may be true that this is the time to hide the UK recession from Brexit within the coronavirus pandemic fallout, but at the same time it is the right time for the EU to deal with the fallout of a UK exit without a FTA when they are already giving out cash to deal with the pandemic. It may be the best time to deal with supply chains and building them back up with the UK removed if you are busy rebuilding due to the coronavirus effort. The UK should be careful what they wish for here.

That would be my hope.

If we cash in on the crisis and completely remove a weakened and poisonous UK from the equation then it'll be quite a boon.

Leroy42

The UK are betting that the EU will fold, and the EU are hoping that the UK will come to its senses.

But, as has been the case throughout, the clock is very much against the UK. They have until June 1 (or maybe end of June not sure exactly) to decide on what they want to do whilst of course the EU is free to give an extension at any time they want.

I really doubt that there are any actual preparations for a No deal going ahead at the moment given the current crisis. The entire government infrastructure should be focused on dealing with the crisis. You look at available resources (finite) and which ones can be refocused. It would be a crime if some of the top government people are spending time on Brexit rather than Covid management.

I would agree with Lewis Goodall, we have seen this approach throughout. The UK continue to state that they won't have no intention, "dead in a ditch" up until the time to actually make a decision arrives

McGiver

Enzokk wrote: »

More noise coming out of No.10 that they will not consider a extension,

https://twitter.com/singharj/status/1250756247244148738?s=20

But Lewis Goodall is of the view that its not much to listen to now as the important noises will only be heard closer to the end of June.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1250760040937598978?s=20

The tweet that made me perk up in his thread was this one,

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1250764648443502593?s=20



So don't listen to Downing street until Johnson is back and we are closer to the cliff edge again, but Downing street thinks this is the time to pressure the EU into a deal when all countries are looking to avoid a crises. Now it may be true that this is the time to hide the UK recession from Brexit within the coronavirus pandemic fallout, but at the same time it is the right time for the EU to deal with the fallout of a UK exit without a FTA when they are already giving out cash to deal with the pandemic. It may be the best time to deal with supply chains and building them back up with the UK removed if you are busy rebuilding due to the coronavirus effort. The UK should be careful what they wish for here.

They'll crash out. It's inevitable at this stage.
The school of thought that Boris has "no position" and is "bluffing" is incorrect. It's all about disaster capitalist money in the background, Boris serves those interests while probably not being ideological, but even if we wanted, he can't back off now.

Sam Russell

McGiver wrote: »

They'll crash out. It's inevitable at this stage.
The school of thought that Boris has "no position" and is "bluffing" is incorrect. It's all about disaster capitalist money in the background, Boris serves those interests while probably not being ideological, but even if we wanted, he can't back off now.

I think the forecast of 36% drop in GDP as a result of the virus would be disastrous, without adding the projected drop from a crash out no-deal.

Even blaming it all on one (the virus) or the other (the EU), will not work as it is a massive recession.

Leroy42

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think the forecast of 36% drop in GDP as a result of the virus would be disastrous, without adding the projected drop from a crash out no-deal.

Even blaming it all on one (the virus) or the other (the EU), will not work as it is a massive recession.

The other way to look at it is that due to the massive drop caused by Covid, the actual impact of Brexit No Deal is much less. It certainly won't help, but if the economy suffers like that then another few % points is not really going to make much difference.

IMO, that is the thinking behind where they are.

ArmaniJeanss

McGiver wrote: »

They'll crash out. It's inevitable at this stage.
The school of thought that Boris has "no position" and is "bluffing" is incorrect. It's all about disaster capitalist money in the background, Boris serves those interests while probably not being ideological, but even if we wanted, he can't back off now.

If we accept this is true, then hasn't the pandemic provided the opportunity anyway? It's a 'unique opportunity for super normal returns' as JRMs investment company said. Presumably they can buy a lot of shares, retail, nursing homes, residential assets now at a 25% markdown to 3 months ago.
Is Brexit even needed now, with it's piddly drops of <5% GDP?

edit :Hah, Leroy.

Sam Russell

Leroy42 wrote: »

The other way to look at it is that due to the massive drop caused by Covid, the actual impact of Brexit No Deal is much less. It certainly won't help, but if the economy suffers like that then another few % points is not really going to make much difference.

IMO, that is the thinking behind where they are.

Well, the Covid drop might be 35% or so, with the Brexit No-Deal one at say 10%, but the Covid one might be easier to bounce back - say 25%, but the Brexit drop might grow to 20% because it is much more lasting.

Once the Covid workers are back at their desks/lathes/dealing screens, the GDP will bounce back, but the Nissan/Honda/Toyota/Vauxhall workers will still have not much work to do, and the Brexit crash out will only grow in its depth of negative effects.

Will the City of London dealers not get increasingly side lined as trading moves to Euro centres?

Leroy42

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well, the Covid drop might be 35% or so, with the Brexit No-Deal one at say 10%, but the Covid one might be easier to bounce back - say 25%, but the Brexit drop might grow to 20% because it is much more lasting.

Once the Covid workers are back at their desks/lathes/dealing screens, the GDP will bounce back, but the Nissan/Honda/Toyota/Vauxhall workers will still have not much work to do, and the Brexit crash out will only grow in its depth of negative effects.

Will the City of London dealers not get increasingly side lined as trading moves to Euro centres?

Yes, but try explaining that, in 280 characters or less!

Most people won't be able to see it. The government now have two things to blame. Covid and the EU. But the can bury the worst of Brexit under Covid.

Remember, it is not that they wish it didn't happen, they are more than happy, indeed they want it to, the only thing they need to consider is how to get it done without getting any blowback from it.

briany

This is a betrayal of the Conservative's promises at the end of last year. When Boris was talking about an oven-ready deal, he never much talked about the sting in the tail that there could still well be a no-deal at the end of the transition period. Lying by omission. Skillfully done.

And doesn't a no-deal also mean that promises made re: the Irish border don't have to be honoured?

Sam Russell

briany wrote: »

This is a betrayal of the Conservative's promises at the end of last year. When Boris was talking about an oven-ready deal, he never much talked about the sting in the tail that there could still well be a no-deal at the end of the transition period. Lying by omission. Skillfully done.

And doesn't a no-deal also mean that promises made re: the Irish border don't have to be honoured?

Well, they still have to be honoured.

If they are not, is our soft power in the EU still intact enough to bring down fire and brimstone on the UK Gov if they do not comply?

Are the French and Dutch prepared to basically blockade the UK by closing the ports in Calais and Rotterdam to UK exports?

Professor Moriarty

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well, they still have to be honoured.

If they are not, is our soft power in the EU still intact enough to bring down fire and brimstone on the UK Gov if they do not comply?

Are the French and Dutch prepared to basically blockade the UK by closing the ports in Calais and Rotterdam to UK exports?

Our soft power in the US is equally important.

Charles Babbage

briany wrote: »

This is a betrayal of the Conservative's promises at the end of last year. When Boris was talking about an oven-ready deal, he never much talked about the sting in the tail that there could still well be a no-deal at the end of the transition period. Lying by omission. Skillfully done.

And doesn't a no-deal also mean that promises made re: the Irish border don't have to be honoured?

No. the withdrawal agreement is already signed and it remains in force. Of course Britain can renege on it but reneging on an international agreement is a bad precedent. Above it it isn't really worth it for them, they want England out of the EU, dragging NI along just makes that harder.

54and56

briany wrote: »

This is a betrayal of the Conservative's promises at the end of last year. When Boris was talking about an oven-ready deal, he never much talked about the sting in the tail that there could still well be a no-deal at the end of the transition period. Lying by omission. Skillfully done.

And doesn't a no-deal also mean that promises made re: the Irish border don't have to be honoured?

No such promises have been made.

A legally binding enforceable treaty has been entered into.

Big difference.

reslfj

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Sam Russell wrote: »

....
Are the French and Dutch prepared to basically blockade the UK by closing the ports in Calais and Rotterdam to UK exports?

Our soft power in the US is equally important.

1. The EU need not introduce any blockade. The EU just need collect the WTO required full MFN tariffs and maybe some 'WA non compliance' extra tariffs on arriving UK goods.
This is something the EU Commission knows all about and surely has the support for in both the Council and the EP. )note 1

2. The Irish soft power in the US comes - at least until November - mostly from Congress and is likely focused on breach of the GFA. Much slower process.

Lars

note 1: As the WA is an A50 treaty, I believe, the Council will use QMV to agree on non compliance actions ? Not sure the EP needs to be involved at all ?

Sam Russell

reslfj wrote: »

1. The EU need not introduce any blockade. The EU just need collect the WTO required full MFN tariffs and maybe some 'WA non compliance' extra tariffs on arriving UK goods.
This is something the EU Commission knows all about and surely has the support for in both the Council and the EP. )note 1

2. The Irish soft power in the US comes - at least until November - mostly from Congress and is likely focused on breach of the GFA. Much slower process.

Lars

note 1: As the WA is an A50 treaty, I believe, the Council will use QMV to agree on non compliance actions ? Not sure the EP needs to be involved at all ?

Obviously, when I said a blockade, I meant an officious application of the rules like checking origin of goods, application of compliance to EU standards, application of duties, phytosanitary stuff, etc.

It would obviously be done with extreme politeness, and great civility. The M2 and M20 would be at a standstill. Maybe even the M25 might be as well.

Leroy42

briany wrote: »

This is a betrayal of the Conservative's promises at the end of last year. When Boris was talking about an oven-ready deal, he never much talked about the sting in the tail that there could still well be a no-deal at the end of the transition period. Lying by omission. Skillfully done.

And doesn't a no-deal also mean that promises made re: the Irish border don't have to be honoured?

If they do go out with No Deal, why did they bother to sign the WA at all? It makes absolutely no sense. They could have got No deal last year, they will have paid a very high price for what was effectively 11 months of, due to Covid, nothing.

What will actually happen if they fail to abide by the WA? Practically I doubt very much, it really isn't something the EU are going to go to 'war' over. But, just like during the WA negotiations, the EU will stick to the position that any future trade deal needs to first put in place the WA already agreed.

I don't think any consequences will happen overnight. It will be a slow death. They won't continue to recognise FS passporting. They won't allow UK freight drivers licence to EU (or make it very difficult).

Look to the example of the US. They is no 'war' going on, it is (or was until Trump) all very pleasant and conciliatory, but they won't give in on standards.

black forest

reslfj wrote: »

1. The EU need not introduce any blockade. The EU just need collect the WTO required full MFN tariffs and maybe some 'WA non compliance' extra tariffs on arriving UK goods.
This is something the EU Commission knows all about and surely has the support for in both the Council and the EP. )note 1

2. The Irish soft power in the US comes - at least until November - mostly from Congress and is likely focused on breach of the GFA. Much slower process.

note 1: As the WA is an A50 treaty, I believe, the Council will use QMV to agree on non compliance actions ? Not sure the EP needs to be involved at all ?

And if the UK thinks it will be easier on the WTO side this from end of March...


https://twitter.com/philhoganeu/status/1243493283860529152?s=21


Today’s result...


https://twitter.com/eucouncilpress/status/1250404636256862208?s=21


..and the EU press release. The full text as pdf.

Guess who is waiting there already. Phil Hogan and especially Sabine Weyand. This is no coincidence as Sabine Weyand is very well into the matter already. By the way she is still working with Barniers team as well.

In future it can be expected that more and more blocks and/or countries will join this alternative panel. Nobody at the WTO wants their arbitration panel be at the whim of Trump. Who is still blocking the original. The US will just get sidelined.

The tale of the hare and the hedgehog comes to mind.:rolleyes:

Roanmore

This doesn't bode well for the UK negotiating deals in the future.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/world/middleeast/coronavirus-antibody-test-uk.html

This is probably why they were so bullish about meeting their test targets in the early days.

reslfj

Leroy42 wrote: »

If they do go out with No Deal, why did they bother to sign the WA at all? It makes absolutely no sense. They could have got No deal last year,....

The UK needed and needs the WA at least as much as NI and Ireland.

• Without an agreed WA, an identical deal would have to be agreed before any trade deal could even be negotiated.
• Without an agreed WA, the GFA would have been broken and all US goodwill gone.
• Without an agreed WA, UK citizens living in EU27 would have been legally in 'uncharted waters'
• Without a WA the money owed by the UK, might have to be paid in an 'uncontrolled' way.
• and
• Until the WA it was the 2017 Parliament and 'No Deal' was outlawed.

Leroy42 wrote: »

What will actually happen if they fail to abide by the WA? Practically I doubt very much, it really isn't something the EU are going to go to 'war' over.
....

The EU27 does not go to war. We do not punish. But the EU doesn't give out any sweets to developed 3. countries.
In case of 'No Trade deal' the EU27 will just follow the rules, check country of origin, limits financial passports (to those needed by the EU27) and collect the WTO required full MFN tariffs in continental EU harbours and airports. It may upward adjust some MFN tariffs too (e.g. on some fish spices).

Leroy42 wrote: »

I don't think any consequences will happen overnight. It will be a slow death. They won't continue to recognise FS passporting. They won't allow UK freight drivers licence to EU (or make it very difficult).

Fast or slowly? - Not immediately, but likely not for very long.
Car factories will likely stay open until replacements are operational or possible as long as current assembly line tooling can produce marketed models.
The current corona economical slow down will however likely generate spare capacity on most continental assembly lines.

UK has pre-EEC international 'freight drivers licences' but not very many (5% max 10% of current traffic). EU will surely respect these licenses.

The EU will allow some FS passporting or equivalencing that support not yet fully EU27 transferred FS. However only for a limited time (e.g. as announced by EU in 2019H2, iirc)

Lars