Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

They have a large lead in the polls for weeks. If they maintain that lead, they will get a substantial majority. All they have to do now is keep their mouths shut and point at Corbyn and Labour.

The odds are 4/9 Con majority, 7/4 No overall majority......the bookies are quite wary at the moment

Zubeneschamali

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

All they have to do now is keep their mouths shut and point at Corbyn and Labour.

I don't that will work. Labour have a detailed manifesto for change. The Tories have a page with "Get Brexit Done" written in crayon.

Trying to stick to "La la la! No Policies! Look at the antisemites!" for two whole weeks is going to look very bad.

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

The odds are 4/9 Con majority, 7/4 No overall majority......the bookies are quite wary at the moment

Yeah. They're saying they currently have about a 70% chance of an overall majority. Personally, I think it's even more likely than that as things stand.

Professor Moriarty

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I don't that will work. Labour have a detailed manifesto for change. The Tories have a page with "Get Brexit Done" written in crayon.

Trying to stick to "La la la! No Policies! Look at the antisemites!" for two whole weeks is going to look very bad.

That will be down to the attention span of the electorate. Based on previous engagement by the electorate, I wouldn't hold out much hope that the Tories won't win with Johnson's waffle and Cummings' slogans. But I'd like to be wrong.

BonnieSituation

J Mysterio wrote: »

https://twitter.com/marcusleroux/status/1199237347839299585

And no doubt he listed them off...

black forest

First Up wrote: »

Did it?

If you had been paying attention you'd have known his book "9 Lessons of Brexit" was published last February and he spoke about it at an event in Dublin last March.

Oh, i do pay attention. AFAIK, as i am only human and fallible, there had been three different lectures of him before the last one:


Trinity College, Cambridge, “Brexit as a revolution “, 10.10.2018. Their link to the transcript does not work, sorry.

University of Liverpool, “The nine lessons of Brexit”, 13.12.2018. Full text, audio and video links.

University College London, “Where did Brexit com from..., 23.01.2019. Full text with video link.



Add to that the full mail of his resignation there is not that much in the form of lectures from him within the last nearly three years. If you know of more please post it here. Of course there are quite a few articles of or about him and lots of videos . I am always eager to read and see more of him.


Thanks for reminding me of his book by the way.

eire4

CrabRevolution wrote: »

I'm surprised the Brexit party even tried that line. Normally they operate on a mantra of "The more competence, expertise and experience you have on a topic, the less qualified you are to talk about it".

As funny as that little clip was your comment is even funnier as it is so true.

Water John

If I remember, Hilary Clinton had an 85% chance of winning.

listermint

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

They have a large lead in the polls for weeks. If they maintain that lead, they will get a substantial majority. All they have to do now is keep their mouths shut and point at Corbyn and Labour.

Don't see it personally. I think the polling is fundamentally flawed. Actually id even say it's methods are out of date.

Supposedly 2.7 million new voters registers at current county. That's over a million more than the amount of new voters last election.

I think the field is far more even and less majority tbh

prawnsambo

listermint wrote: »

Don't see it personally. I think the polling is fundamentally flawed. Actually id even say it's methods are out of date.

Supposedly 2.7 million new voters registers at current county. That's over a million more than the amount of new voters last election.

I think the field is far more even and less majority tbh

And that's just in the last month. There's been a fairly strong uptick in registrations in the last while. Vast majority of those registering in the last month were in the 18-34 bracket.

Professor Moriarty

listermint wrote: »

Don't see it personally. I think the polling is fundamentally flawed. Actually id even say it's methods are out of date.

Supposedly 2.7 million new voters registers at current county. That's over a million more than the amount of new voters last election.

I think the field is far more even and less majority tbh

Well, polls are indeed just a straw in the wind. As are bookies' odds. But I'd certainly rather be in Johnson's position today than in Corbyn's. And remember that most polls would have included these new voters in their research. However, there's weeks to go. How do you think Corbyn might gain ground? Or the Tories lose ground?

Mr.Nice Guy

Speaking of polls, may have been mentioned but Yougov are publishing their multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) poll tomorrow at 10pm, which correctly predicted a hung parliament in 2017. Should be a lot of commentary on that when it lands.

briany

Water John wrote: »

If I remember, Hilary Clinton had an 85% chance of winning.

I think those polls were skewed by there being a stigma on Trump supporters. I don't think that is true of the main parties in this current UK GE. The only way I see an upset happening is if Conservative supporters get complacent on the back of the large apparent lead and don't go vote en masse, whereas all the other parties' supporters are highly mobilised.

Christy42

briany wrote: »

I think those polls were skewed by there being a stigma on Trump supporters. I don't think that is true of the main parties in this current UK GE. The only way I see an upset happening is if Conservative supporters get complacent on the back of the large apparent lead and don't go vote en masse, whereas all the other parties' supporters are highly mobilised.

There is little evidence of that. Turns out ~1/6 events just happen (though I think I saw it as Hilary at 75%before the election).

People seem to see 60% sure as a guarantee when it is anything but.

Seth Brundle

https://twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1199640222490939392


This is what's being referrred to (...
Jeremy Corbyn reveals dossier 'proving NHS up for sale'

briany

Christy42 wrote: »

There is little evidence of that. Turns out ~1/6 events just happen (though I think I saw it as Hilary at 75%before the election).

Was there ever a U.S. presidential election in modern times where almost every poll gave one candidate a what would be taken to be a decisive advantage, and that candidate not only ended up losing, but losing quite badly? Fully accept that freak things happen, but almost every poll getting it that badly wrong seems unprecedented at that level of politics, at least in the modern era.

To tie this back into the discussion at hand, I don't see Labour pulling off anything like the above upset. The polling gives an even wider advantage. Well, that is to say that if the Conservatives maintain their current lead. If the lead narrows in the next couple of weeks, then that's a different story.

listermint

These are pretty Large figures if true. More newly registered voters have historically been pretty poor for Conservative or right wing parties.


https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1199621729783623683

briany

briany wrote: »

Was there ever a U.S. presidential election in modern times where almost every poll gave one candidate a what would be taken to be a decisive advantage, and that candidate not only ended up losing, but losing quite badly? Fully accept that freak things happen, but almost every poll getting it that badly wrong seems unprecedented at that level of politics, at least in the modern era.

To tie this back into the discussion at hand, I don't see Labour pulling off anything like the above upset. The polling gives an even wider advantage. Well, that is to say that if the Conservatives maintain their current lead. If the lead narrows in the next couple of weeks, then that's a different story.

The problem wasn't so much the polls but the interpretation and reporting. The Clinton campaign fell into the same trap.

Even watching the results come in in 2016 was mind-boggling. The East Coast states Clinton was expected to win went for her but no-one seemed to notice that she was a few percent down from where she should have been. Signs right from the first counts were bad for her. But people didn't pick up on it until states started going the other way.
Part of it is looking at the US as a whole and also looking at state results as binary. For example if Trump got 45% of the vote in New York next year it's still a state that voted Democrat but it would hint at doom for the Democrats in the swing states.

Zubeneschamali

briany wrote: »

Was there ever a U.S. presidential election in modern times where almost every poll gave one candidate a what would be taken to be a decisive advantage, and that candidate not only ended up losing, but losing quite badly? Fully accept that freak things happen, but almost every poll getting it that badly wrong seems unprecedented at that level of politics, at least in the modern era.

Hillary didn't lose quite badly - she won the national vote by 3%, right in line with the polls. Trump managed an Electoral College win by just a few tens of thousands of votes, not something a national poll is going to predict. He outperformed the polls in the key states by just a few points, within the margin of error.

It is true that many pundits were far more certain Trump was going to lose than they should have been given the polls, quoting it as a 100-1 shot and the like. But that is their interpretation of the data, not the polling itself.

prawnsambo

listermint wrote: »

These are pretty Large figures if true. More newly registered voters have historically been pretty poor for Conservative or right wing parties.

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1199621729783623683

They come from the voter registration website, so they would be accurate. Vast majority are in the 18-35 age bracket. The only thing that it doesn't say is how many are change of address or other such amendments,

Christy42

briany wrote: »

Was there ever a U.S. presidential election in modern times where almost every poll gave one candidate a what would be taken to be a decisive advantage, and that candidate not only ended up losing, but losing quite badly? Fully accept that freak things happen, but almost every poll getting it that badly wrong seems unprecedented at that level of politics, at least in the modern era.

To tie this back into the discussion at hand, I don't see Labour pulling off anything like the above upset. The polling gives an even wider advantage. Well, that is to say that if the Conservatives maintain their current lead. If the lead narrows in the next couple of weeks, then that's a different story.

No and it still hasn't happened.

Hillary was very close to being president. A few hundred thousand votes out many millions and won more votes as the polls expected.

Finally the number quoted here was 85%. 15% event occurrence is not close to freak. (As someone mentioned there were places quoting 1-100 odds but they badly missed out on the links between states and that polling errors in similar states are likely to be correlated).

Now plenty of things could change the polling in the UK as we have seen before. However if Labour don't close the gap before polling date then this election is lost and the 52% will get their Brexit - though they will not stop hearing about it as they are hoping.

10000maniacs

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Yeah. They're saying they currently have about a 70% chance of an overall majority. Personally, I think it's even more likely than that as things stand.

I would say a hung parliament like the last time.
However the Jewish leaders have stitched up Corbyn but good.
They don't like Jeremy criticizing Israeli foreign policy.

Imreoir2

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Speaking of polls, may have been mentioned but Yougov are publishing their multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) poll tomorrow at 10pm, which correctly predicted a hung parliament in 2017. Should be a lot of commentary on that when it lands.

Yougov predicting a Conservative Majority.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/27/yougov-mrp-conservatives-359-labour-211-snp-43-ld-

If correct, then it seems likely that Brexit will actually happen in January, NI will be detached from the UK economically as the price for GB leaving the SM and CU and the this summer becomes a new crisis point in the Brexit saga as the threat of the transition lapsing to a WTO trading arangement for GB becomes the new No-Deal cliffedge in the Brexit process.

Add to that growing pressure for an independance referendum in Scotland over the next year.

Any bets on how many iteritations of this thread we get through before this is all over?

Infini

10000maniacs wrote: »

I would say a hung parliament like the last time.
However the Jewish leaders have stitched up Corbyn but good.
They don't like Jeremy criticizing Israeli foreign policy.

I honestly think the whole Jewish thing is an utter non issue that's being distorted right now out of proportion. If they're going round calling Labour and Corbyn anti-semetic because he's critical of Israel they're behaving like utter idiots and the same as those who call others racist to shut down letigimate debate and criticism. It's an utterly self defeating strategm anyways as their own community in Britain suffers like everyone else if Boris gets away with what hes going.

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Yougov predicting a Conservative Majority.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/27/yougov-mrp-conservatives-359-labour-211-snp-43-ld-

If correct, then it seems likely that Brexit will actually happen in January, NI will be detached from the UK economically as the price for GB leaving the SM and CU and the this summer becomes a new crisis point in the Brexit saga as the threat of the transition lapsing to a WTO trading arangement for GB becomes the new No-Deal cliffedge in the Brexit process.

Add to that growing pressure for an independance referendum in Scotland over the next year.

Any bets on how many iteritations of this thread we get through before this is all over?

In all honesty if the Conservatives/Posh Kippers at this point get in the UK wont be around by the end of the next decade, the whole thing will come apart as the various forces on either side ultimately cause it to fall apart. (Scottish Independence/Irish Reunification). It's a daft situation atm but it ultimately cant be helped if too many people are voting for a party of deceiving liars and utterly corrupt charlatans and sadly all we can do here is look after our own interests, we cant stop them going full retard and suffering the consequences if none listens.

That being said it aint over till the actual election so it's up to the rest of the oppositon there to pull the thumb out of their ásses if they dont the UK to fall apart by letting a chancer like Boris get away with it.

Nody

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Any bets on how many iteritations of this thread we get through before this is all over?

Depends on your definition of over... I expect once they have left we're going into the trade deal negotiation, let's be generous and say we wrap that up around 2022 (highly unlikely but we're being positive here). Then we have the WTO trade issue that will follow directly on that as the rest of the world finally knows were UK will stand and the follow up trade deals (and the fall out coming from the discussions & actual deals) which will last a couple of years as well. Add in at least one if not multiple areas wanting special treatment ala NI (Scottland, fishermen etc.), some more juicy sell out/seize/eminent domain of NHS/post/rail or similar discussions and of course the "Rejoin EU in some form" campaigns by various parties at various times.

In short there's hard to see an "end" to the thread because no matter what happens it will remain relevant for a very very long time.

Kermit.de.frog

Consensus seems to be a 40 - 60 seat majority for the Conservatives that will see the UK officially exit the EU on January 31st with the WA vote before Christmas between Yougov and MPR.

Delighted that the vote looks like it finally be respected.

The UK will have to make it's own way but also let's hope the EU learns the lesson from the loss of it's second biggest net contributor. Looks like being the first vote against the EU that will actually be respected.

Literally the first - the rest were overturned.

A big win for democracy and accountability.

Leroy42

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Consensus seems to be a 40 - 60 seat majority for the Conservatives that will see the UK officially exit the EU on January 31st with the WA vote before Christmas between Yougov and MPR.

Delighted that the vote looks like it finally be respected.

The UK will have to make it's own way but also let's hope the EU learns the lesson from the loss of it's second biggest net contributor. Looks like being the first vote against the EU that will actually be respected.

Literally the first - the rest were overturned.

A big win for democracy and accountability.

What lessons do you think the EU should learn?

Literally the first? You are aware that there have been multiple European elections, we just had one recently.

moon2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Looks like being the first vote against the EU that will actually be respected.

Literally the first - the rest were overturned.

A big win for democracy and accountability.

I too wish for accountability and democracy to be restored to the UK. However the people accountable for the lies and misinformation in the Leave campaign are unlikely to be held to account any time in the foreseeable future. Nor are the current disseminators of lies and misinformation.

It's a sad day when the governing party misrepresents their own propaganda as an independent fact checking service and isn't brought to task.

Christy42

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Consensus seems to be a 40 - 60 seat majority for the Conservatives that will see the UK officially exit the EU on January 31st with the WA vote before Christmas between Yougov and MPR.

Delighted that the vote looks like it finally be respected.

The UK will have to make it's own way but also let's hope the EU learns the lesson from the loss of it's second biggest net contributor. Looks like being the first vote against the EU that will actually be respected.

Literally the first - the rest were overturned.

A big win for democracy and accountability.

If you can show where we implemented the first Lisbon vote...? Unless you are just stirring with a tired line that has been debunked 100 times.

The leavers were the people who decided not to "respect" the vote back in February.

listermint

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Consensus seems to be a 40 - 60 seat majority for the Conservatives that will see the UK officially exit the EU on January 31st with the WA vote before Christmas between Yougov and MPR.

Delighted that the vote looks like it finally be respected.

The UK will have to make it's own way but also let's hope the EU learns the lesson from the loss of it's second biggest net contributor. Looks like being the first vote against the EU that will actually be respected.

Literally the first - the rest were overturned.

A big win for democracy and accountability.

I'm of the opinion this type of post is quite literally just a wind up.

Takes all sorts I suppose though. Must get some kick out of it.