Another recession?

Away With The Fairies

Are we due another recession? The last one and I don't think we fully recovered. Big cities are ok but certainly in small towns and villages and they haven't recovered.

The last one, there were so much job losses. There was something every day. 500 jobs yesterday and 320 job losses reported in the news. Is this the start of another recession?

weldoninhio

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Are we due another recession? The last one and I don't think we fully recovered. Big cities are ok but certainly in small towns and villages and they haven't recovered.

The last one, there were so much job losses. There was something every day. 500 jobs yesterday and 320 job losses reported in the news. Is this the start of another recession?

The next one will be a lot worse that the first one. Hopefully coming soon and will reset Treasure Ireland. We are being fleeced.

Sky King

weldoninhio wrote: »

The next one will be a lot worse that the first one.

What are you basing this on?

uck51js9zml2yt

800 jobs gone this morning in Shannon and cork. !

I'm inclined to agree on recession. We've seen nothing yet.

MrAbyss

The EU in now in a very serious 3rd quarter downturn in a row. Being basically hidden from the news here.

The USA is booming with record economic and job creation growth off the scale.

But let's make make fun of 'Dumpft' and sing eternal sonnets of unconditional devotion in the direction of the EU Commission.

RedParrot

Do you know all that vaping stuff that's going on in America. Like, ban the ecigs, ban the flavours, think of the children, dangerous drugs, etc....... there's some states in America that's not able to manage without the revenue from cigarettes. Remember the 08 recession? Some states have a 10 year bond to pay back and they are struggling. This is where the vaping comes in. The sale of cigarettes have dropped in recent years and kept dropping. There's something definitely brewing over there in America.

Then we have brexit on the other side of us.

MrAbyss

MrAbyss wrote: »

But let's make make fun of 'Dumpft' and sing eternal sonnets of unconditional devotion in the direction of the EU Commission.

What?

nkl12xtw5goz70

We now live in an artificial economy propped up by central banks.

Ireland benefits more than most European countries from its close economic ties to the US — but even their own artificially engineered economy is showing signs of cracks.

Nobody likes to see a recession, but we do need a return to normal. Things like interest rates, sane stock and bond markets, etc.

begsbyOnaTrain

Sky King wrote: »

What are you basing this on?

Tea leaf readings.

Edgware

Don't worry. Greta and the gang will save us all with their organic cow****s recipes

MrAbyss

I do not have a crystal ball, but something tells me we will be watching morons who went out and bought big houses they didn't need with a 2 car/3 hour commute all being shown a mirror reflection of their own stupidity.

Every 20 years it is the same.

MrAbyss

Haven Massive Iron wrote: »

Nobody likes to see a recession, but we do need a return to normal. Things like interest rates, sane stock and bond markets, etc.

We joined the EU and went for slavery instead.

OneEightSeven

We never got to enjoy any recovery because of the flood of cheap immigrants labour pushing up house prices and depressing wages. As soon as our economy recovered, we went straight into a housing crisis. I don't remember that happening in the late-90s.

riffmongous

Was wondering this myself when I read about all the job losses the last days

riffmongous

MrAbyss wrote: »

The EU in now in a very serious 3rd quarter downturn in a row. Being basically hidden from the news here.

The USA is booming with record economic and job creation growth off the scale.

But let's make make fun of 'Dumpft' and sing eternal sonnets of unconditional devotion in the direction of the EU Commission.

Edgware wrote: »

Don't worry. Greta and the gang will save us all with their organic cow****s recipes

MrAbyss wrote: »

We joined the EU and went for slavery instead.

OneEightSeven wrote: »

We never got to enjoy any recovery because of the flood of cheap immigrants labour pushing up house prices and depressing wages. As soon as our economy recovered, we went straight into a housing crisis. I don't remember that happening in the late-90s.

Got to get those agendas in there eh lads

cherryghost

weldoninhio wrote: »

The next one will be a lot worse that the first one. Hopefully coming soon and will reset Treasure Ireland. We are being fleeced.

I don't hope for mass wave of unemployment on anyone

J Mysterio

weldoninhio wrote: »

The next one will be a lot worse that the first one. Hopefully coming soon and will reset Treasure Ireland. We are being fleeced.

Bizarre sentiment.

Mad_maxx

MrAbyss wrote: »

The EU in now in a very serious 3rd quarter downturn in a row. Being basically hidden from the news here.

The USA is booming with record economic and job creation growth off the scale.

But let's make make fun of 'Dumpft' and sing eternal sonnets of unconditional devotion in the direction of the EU Commission.

The eurozone economy has been between awful and mediocre for two decades, the reality is our economy doesn't track the eurozone economy

PHG

OneEightSeven wrote: »

We never got to enjoy any recovery because of the flood of cheap immigrants labour pushing up house prices and depressing wages. As soon as our economy recovered, we went straight into a housing crisis. I don't remember that happening in the late-90s.

A few points here you should probably take into account before giving off again:

- Irish people are well known for emigrating in good times and bad. There is something like 80mln people claiming to be Irish around the world, how did that happen???

- Cheap immigrants pushing up house prices and depressing wages. So wages go down and they earn pittance, yet they can afford more expensive houses causing the house prices to go up?

- Maybe look back to early 90's and before that, sure the economy was great with high levels of unemployment, few motorways, not much skilled labour. etc. God, how I wish we could go back to that era!!

- Irish people would rarely accept the low income jobs during the boom, so somebody had to fill the jobs, particularly in the services sector.

Sure isn't it always someone else's fault!! Is it hard to come down off the high horse there?

MrAbyss

riffmongous wrote: »

Got to get those agendas in there eh lads

Have no comeback eh Cabasti Ni Funnuchan?

MrAbyss

cherryghost wrote: »

I don't hope for mass wave of unemployment on anyone

Affordable rents, less traffic and lunch for under 80 euro - what's the problem?

riffmongous

MrAbyss wrote: »

Have no comeback eh Cabasti Ni Funnuchan?

That we're slaves to the EU hardly warrants a comeback

nkl12xtw5goz70

OneEightSeven wrote: »

We never got to enjoy any recovery because of the flood of cheap immigrants labour pushing up house prices and depressing wages. As soon as our economy recovered, we went straight into a housing crisis. I don't remember that happening in the late-90s.

The housing crisis wasn't caused by immigrants.

Central banks like the ECB and the Federal Reserve have created a low-interest-rate world that makes investing in bonds unattractive. So institutional investors who used to invest heavily in the bond market (e.g., pension funds) have been looking for other kinds of investments that produce better returns than bonds but more stable returns than stocks. They've been pumping more and more money into real estate investment trusts (REITs), which have been snapping up property to meet demand.

So now Joe and Mary, when buying a house, have to compete not only with other homebuyers but with some of the world's biggest institutional investors, who have billions to pump into the market.

Immigrants are not the cause of this. Central bankers are. If they raised interest rates, institutional investors would go back to bonds and the housing market wouldn't be so overheated.

PhilOssophy

And then David McWilliams says we should borrow another 200bn.....

nigeldaniel

I used to follow the business world a good bit in years gone by, these days I am not up to speed with things. I do think however the way big countries are spending and borrowing is going to get sticky somewhere along the line.

Doctors room ghost

Keep an eye on the price of horses.
When they are making big money the country is thriving.breakfast and chicken fillet rolls for every paddy Irishman in sight.bulgaria property back on the map.
When the price of horses drops its time to baton down the hatches and make your own breakfast and lunch.back to aldi.
When the recession kicks in proper they can’t give away horses.
That’s how I do judge economics

riffmongous

weldoninhio wrote: »

The next one will be a lot worse that the first one. Hopefully coming soon and will reset Treasure Ireland. We are being fleeced.

But only for a few years until things get out of control again, Ireland's just doesn't seem to be able or willing to manage itself responsibly. Not that we're alone in that either though

riffmongous

riffmongous wrote: »

But only for a few years until things get out of control again, Ireland's just doesn't seem to be able or willing to manage itself responsibly. Not that we're alone in that either though

Just maybe Ireland is in a unique situation because of various factors which means we are not in fully in control of our own economic policy, brexit being one example.

NIMAN

there's always going to be another recession.......its just a matter of when.

NIMAN

Haven Massive Iron wrote: »

The housing crisis wasn't caused by immigrants.

Central banks like the ECB and the Federal Reserve have created a low-interest-rate world that makes investing in bonds unattractive. So institutional investors who used to invest heavily in the bond market (e.g., pension funds) have been looking for other kinds of investments that produce better returns than bonds but more stable returns than stocks. They've been pumping more and more money into real estate investment trusts (REITs), which have been snapping up property to meet demand.

So now Joe and Mary, when buying a house, have to compete not only with other homebuyers but with some of the world's biggest institutional investors, who have billions to pump into the market.

Immigrants are not the cause of this. Central bankers are. If they raised interest rates, institutional investors would go back to bonds and the housing market wouldn't be so overheated.

2 other factors in the housing crisis are:

(1) The government stopped building social housing in any great numbers for a decade.

(2) People playing the system, turning off decent offers of accommodation.

NIMAN

riffmongous wrote: »

But only for a few years until things get out of control again, Ireland's just doesn't seem to be able or willing to manage itself responsibly. Not that we're alone in that either though

Ireland isn't the only country that loses the run of itself.

gifted

Last recession gave me a big lesson......don't buy my lunch anymore, now I make my own......amount of construction workers that I see spending their money on overpriced crap rolls is scary......some of these workers are not even young, did they not learn anything?

sparrowcar

When not if.

Brexit may have a bearing and bring it forward but you would think we are due some sort of realignment in the short to medium term.

Stevieluvsye

gifted wrote: »

Last recession gave me a big lesson......don't buy my lunch anymore, now I make my own......amount of construction workers that I see spending their money on overpriced crap rolls is scary......some of these workers are not even young, did they not learn anything?

Good shout. Me too and is also nicer than the ****e you get in your average Spar.

I used to spend €30 a week on shop bought lunches, now spend €10. Some good lessons were learned after the last recession

Also including lights off when not required. I was terrible for that

RedParrot

weldoninhio wrote: »

The next one will be a lot worse that the first one. Hopefully coming soon and will reset Treasure Ireland. We are being fleeced.

The last recession began in 2008 and it followed a building boom where many people took out 100% mortgages for over priced apartments and houses. The last recession knocked all of that down.

I really don't think Ireland recovered very well from the last recession. A lot of young people left school or college to be faced with internships and a career ladder to climb. Many people wouldn't have the funds to take on a mortgage, so another recession maybe won't be as severe as the last recession. Another recession will definitely add to the housing crisis we do have in Ireland. Less people being able to afford a mortgage, more people relying on renting, less rental accommodation available, poor job prospects, reduced incomes.

enricoh

I think it was the irish head of intel that said 20 years ago he could go to the states n have a list the length of his arm why intel should invest its new plant in ireland over other countries.
He said now there is only one positive reason - corporation tax.
If that get hit by the eu it could get hairy quickly!

Mad_maxx

Haven Massive Iron wrote: »

The housing crisis wasn't caused by immigrants.

Central banks like the ECB and the Federal Reserve have created a low-interest-rate world that makes investing in bonds unattractive. So institutional investors who used to invest heavily in the bond market (e.g., pension funds) have been looking for other kinds of investments that produce better returns than bonds but more stable returns than stocks. They've been pumping more and more money into real estate investment trusts (REITs), which have been snapping up property to meet demand.

So now Joe and Mary, when buying a house, have to compete not only with other homebuyers but with some of the world's biggest institutional investors, who have billions to pump into the market.

Immigrants are not the cause of this. Central bankers are. If they raised interest rates, institutional investors would go back to bonds and the housing market wouldn't be so overheated.

Who competes in cities for accommodation?

nkl12xtw5goz70

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Who competes in cities for accommodation?

People who want to live in that city? I'm not being a smartarse, but I don't understand the point of the question.

smelly sock

Im sure we will be ok. The banks and financial sector obviously learned their lessons as they do so we should be covered.

Fr_Dougal

enricoh wrote: »

I think it was the irish head of intel that said 20 years ago he could go to the states n have a list the length of his arm why intel should invest its new plant in ireland over other countries.
He said now there is only one positive reason - corporation tax.
If that get hit by the eu it could get hairy quickly!

Link?

smelly sock

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

Good shout. Me too and is also nicer than the ****e you get in your average Spar.

I used to spend €30 a week on shop bought lunches, now spend €10. Some good lessons were learned after the last recession

Also including lights off when not required. I was terrible for that

I dont know. You have to live a little too. In Aldi you can buy a lunch for 2.50. Thats fruit a yoghurt and a wrap.

In any case im not sure how a fella buying a roll everyday contributed to a 64 billion euro banking catastrophe.

To be fair the ordinary paye worker had very little direct involvement in what caused the last collapse but boy did we suffer for it.

Stevieluvsye

smelly sock wrote: »

I dont know. You have to live a little too. In Aldi you can buy a lunch for 2.50. Thats fruit a yoghurt and a wrap.

In any case im not sure how a fella buying a roll everyday contributed to a 64 billion euro banking catastrophe.

To be fair the ordinary paye worker had very little direct involvement in what caused the last collapse but boy did we suffer for it.

It was more the tax increases and new taxes that were introduced. At the time i also lost out on single parent tax credit so all in all i was down €450 net a month so i had to factor in uneccesary cost but i get your point about about living a little.

There was always a few quid tucked away for weekend pints

Thelonious Monk

Do people think economies and consumption can just keep growing and growing? It's a ridiculous way to run the world, but that's how we do.

riffmongous

NIMAN wrote: »

Ireland isn't the only country that loses the run of itself.

I know, I said as much in the post. But it's one of those things when we really shouldn't be comparing ourselves to the other poorly managed countries, but rather only to the better ones. It's really of no use to anyone when the next recession comes to say, well loads of others are suffering to.

nkl12xtw5goz70

smelly sock wrote: »

To be fair the ordinary paye worker had very little direct involvement in what caused the last collapse

Who were the banks lending money to?

Ush1

MrAbyss wrote: »

Affordable rents, less traffic and lunch for under 80 euro - what's the problem?

The rent is infinitely less affordable with no income.

smelly sock

Might be able to get a modest 25sq meters extension for less than 80k. I'll be holding off for a few years yet.

5 countries currently looking to 'ditch' the dollar, or phase out their use of the dollar from their exports.

China, India, Turkey, Iran, Russia

A weakened Dollar would not be in Ireland's favour as we depend so much on US multinationals. The US economy directly impacts Ireland's economy.

topper75

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

Keep an eye on the price of horses.
When they are making big money the country is thriving.breakfast and chicken fillet rolls for every paddy Irishman in sight.bulgaria property back on the map.
When the price of horses drops its time to baton down the hatches and make your own breakfast and lunch.back to aldi.
When the recession kicks in proper they can’t give away horses.
That’s how I do judge economics

Yeah I wouldn't know that market myself but sometimes simple barometers like this can cut through the distortions of 'official' data.

Watching how many people are actually carrying a bag(s) in a shopping centre mall/ downtown or central shopping district area can be revelatory. People mope about town or a shopping centre to have coffee in a downturn but tend not to carry shop bags. I know internet shopping has diminished this effect somewhat but it is still real and useful.

Wanderer78

Haven Massive Iron wrote:

Who were the banks lending money to?

'Behind a bad borrower, is a bad lender'!

NSAman

There is no doubt another recession is coming.

It is all cyclical. When the Dow hits these heights you can be damned sure that it will all fall apart so the original investors take out the money and ordinary investors are left to get crumbs or more importantly loose their shirts.

During the last recession I remember getting on flights (for work) and they were empty, these same flights are now full each time I have to take them. (Same as pre-“boom” times).

Some people have learned their lessons, I know I am very very wary of doing anything silly and have saved and only bought when I can fully purchase something. No debt here!

Looking at the economy here (in the States) it is interesting. Finding workers is almost impossible. Everyone is hiring. Going into my local town, every business has “for hire” signs. However, retail is being decimated by online shopping. Larger corporations are starting to lay-off people, some of the largest and well know corporations are closing plants and that is a REAL sign that cracks are showing in this economy.

I honestly think this recession will be 1920s style.