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Scottish independence



  • Registered Users Posts: 45,558 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy

    It's a good piece, although the 60% figure is silly. If polls for example showed consistent support for Yes at 55%, does anyone think it would be remotely tenable for the UK to ignore that when the 2014 referendum allowed for the continuance of the UK at the same figure? Not to mention the fact that the UK has signed up to the GFA which allows for NI to leave the UK on a 50+1% vote, and the SoS is obliged to call one if he/she thinks the majority desire unity.

    Problem for the Scots is they don't seem to have the stomach to take a tougher line if the UK continues to say no to their democratic mandates. Violence should be avoided, yet things like civil disobedience, mass strikes etc., don't appear to be contemplated by the SNP. I listened to Ash Regan being interviewed about her de facto referendum idea. She had no answer when asked what she'd do if the UK said no to a mandate for independence.

  • Registered Users Posts: 17,123 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo

    It is clear over the last few years that the SNP are more interested in devolution than independence. It would appear that parliamentary mandate means little in the current climate in the UK

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,532 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell

    That sounds like an acceptance of the obvious democratic deficit that comes from FPTP and the lying toads that have managed to get to be PM and wreck the place.

  • Registered Users Posts: 15,116 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious

    It's moving away from ideas like mass strikes, civil disobedience etc that the SNP will be doing.

    As the article alludes to they will sit and wait until the current older generation that see themselves as British are eventually replaced by the current and a new generation that have a greater sense of Scottish identity.

    Sturgeon tried to use the differences between her party and the Tories as a vehicle to increase support for independence, trying to protray everything the Tories did as bad and everything the SNP did as good, but that backfired spectacularly.

  • Registered Users Posts: 45,558 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy

    I wouldn't say it backfired spectacularly for Sturgeon when she won every election convincingly, so much so that unionists were doing cartwheels when her departure was announced. 45% support in 2014 to circa 50% now isn't bad going imo. I do think making the gender bill a priority certainly backfired. I suspect in time people will wonder what the fuss was about but evidently she moved further than the public were ready for.

    Sturgeon got a lot of stick from impatient SNP supporters that she wasn't going far enough. It sounds like Yousaf if he takes over will annoy those people even more since he doesn't seem in a hurry to push anything.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 21,254 ✭✭✭✭Water John

    SNP would be silly to get offside, like the Catalans. Get a max devo of some sort from Starmer and work with that.

  • Registered Users Posts: 17,123 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo

    The devolutionists want to talk and talk and talk about independence. It is actually amazing how it has moved from 'there will be an independence referendum in 2017/18/19/20/21/22/23' to 'keep electing us and maybe we will move on independence in 30 years!'

  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,123 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp

    I also suspect the big problem was the Yes vote stalled at the mid 50s, when perhaps the expectation was it'd hit the low 60s just around the time Sturgeon was eyeing up another go at the referendum. Or maybe I'm projecting my own supposition: this idea that the Yes vote was only going in one direction and there wasn't some weird ceiling on support once it hit the 50-50 split. Though I always thought for independence to work it had to have a buy-in by at least 2/3s of its population.

    The Gender Bill probably fed enough Bad Faith merchants to truly put her in the ha'penny place, but I suspect the wheels were already wobbling a little on the Sturgeon train when she kept talking up Ref #2 - despite support for Independence failing to become louder. Forcing Westminister to play its hand wasn't a bad strategy by all accounts, not if the purpose was to rile up Scots over London interference - but she picked the wrong legislation to pin those hopes.

    The new leader may decide the best policy is to work on getting the Yes vote into the 2/3s before shouting for another referendum. Go back to basics, get the Scottish economy and society humming through its own graft, let Scots see the value of that, over London, before talking up another ref.

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,568 ✭✭✭rock22

    I think you sum it up very well, Pixelburp

    I too expected support to keep growing into the 60s and beyond. As a matter of fact, given the absolute chaos , dishonesty and incompetence in Westminster in the past few years, and the reality of being denied membership of the EU from Brexit, I am astonished that there ia anyone in Scotalnd that prefers Westminster to make their decision for them rather than make those decision themselves in Scotland.

    Given that support stalled I think the only realisitic way forward is to slowly build support again. WWe will have to wait to see if that can ever be done .

  • Registered Users Posts: 15,116 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious

    The SNP seem to be is a sort of bother.

    Arguments over what the membership numbers were.

    Membership down 32,000 in two years.

    The chief executive resigning, his replacement saying that the party is in a tremendous mess.

    Even though it's not at the same level of disarray as the Tories, it hardly bodes well for the SNP if they want to convince people that they are competent enough to run an independent country.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 45,558 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy

    It's been a messy couple of weeks for the SNP but is that going to translate into a swing for the Tories or Labour? I'd be surprised.

  • Registered Users Posts: 17,123 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo

    The SNP leadership have been guilty of gerrymandering and corruption for a while now

  • Registered Users Posts: 17,123 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo

    Kevin McKenna in the (Glasgow) Herald does not mince his words for the SNP leadership

  • Registered Users Posts: 21,254 ✭✭✭✭Water John

    Beth Rigby interview with Nicola Sturgeon on Sky 9pm tonight.

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,289 ✭✭✭✭

    3 duds running for the SNP leadership.

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,568 ✭✭✭rock22

    Just read this .

    If true, it is a fairly damning assessment of the Sturgeon / Murrell hold on the party. The reality would seem to be very much at odds with the public persona of Sturgeon as the capable leader.

    Either way it does seem the SNP 'brand' is damaged in the short to medium term. And with it the pathway to independence.

  • Registered Users Posts: 21,254 ✭✭✭✭Water John

    It is wrong that the CEO and the leader had a personal relationship. Murrell should have stepped down when Sturgeon became party leader.

    Slagging the 3 running for the leadership, without giving reasons. Well we know what that's called.

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,347 ✭✭✭tinytobe

    There is no wonder the SNP brand is damaged. Also the pathway to independence was a cull de sack from day one. Voters just didn't want to see that as the playbook was always the depressed minority within the UK and the evil of Westminster. ( Westminster, the ones who paid for everything the SNP promised.....)

    There are far to many domestic problems in Scotland, starting from the Scottish NHS, to education issues. Also Scotland is sadly leading the number of drug deaths in Europe. Sturgeon also had no real succession planning upon her departure, no leader in waiting nothing of that sort. She also failed twice on the referendum issue, lost the first referendum, and the second one was overruled by the supreme court. Also when Sturgeon announced that she was stepping down, there was some kind of police enquiry into SNP finances.

    Also the SNP is having a massive loss of party members recently. Sturgeon has been taking the Scottish votes for a ride for many many years, and I believe she left, before anybody is really smart enough to pin all these failures on her.

    Maybe some Irish take fun into the idea of Scottish independence, but from a reasoning point of view, it's way better it never ever happens.

  • Registered Users Posts: 45,558 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy

    Sturgeon won every election as leader convincingly and leaves office as the most popular leader in Scotland.

  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,123 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp

    Sturgeon's reputation seems to be broken, not the SNPs own; or at least, we can't see either for sure until the next set of polls come out, or indeed election. It survived the last big personality departure in leadership with Alex Salmond; I'd not write its obituary just yet with Sturgeon leaving.

    The first referendum might have been lost but it wasn't manifested by a reduction in pro independence representation in Holyrood; in fact taking the Greens into account there remains an overall majority support in of SMPs. And whether the public appetite exists or not, it seems happy to vote for SNP over the Scottish variants of the main 3 English parties. Alba didn't appear to cause much of a rift, with no sign of bleed elsewhere AFAIK.

    No independence movement comes ready baked, the country perfect and primed for going it alone. It has always been an issue driven by emotion, not pragmatism. Name me a country whose independent movement was driven by stats or charts; it's always about something deeper.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,568 ✭✭✭rock22

    Remaining as part of the UK is a vul de sac, if ever there was one.

    And the only way for Scotland to deal with those problems you list, and they exist, such as health and education, is to end Westminster interference and get fill control of the Scottish budget. Those problems are an argument for independence not against it.

  • Registered Users Posts: 15,116 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious

    So even though education and health have been devolved since 1999 the excuse for them being in poor shape under the SNP for the last so many yeay is that Westminster aren't giving Scotland enough money to run them correctly?

  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,123 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp

    The analogy doesn't quite track but should Ireland's autonomy by stripped for each successive, failed government, given over to Brussels because it failed some nebulous sense of competence? Or ditto US states whose budgets or institutions lag behind some arbitrary sense of federal autonomy, the blame sitting with the resting party?

    The case for independence will invariably be linked to the party most vocal for it, and the state of things while being run by that party - but again, independence won't be won or lost exclusively by the state of the economy, or some sense of needing to be This High for independence to be valid. it certainly wasn't our barometer.

  • Registered Users Posts: 68,024 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady

    Who is the smart money on here?

  • Registered Users Posts: 15,116 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious

    Yousaf it seems.

    Clear favorite with the bookies.

    Not surprising seening as Forbes is socially conservative in a party that has been very socially liberal over the last few years, and Yousaf is socially liberal.

  • Registered Users Posts: 21,254 ✭✭✭✭Water John

    A party built on the flag of independence will by its nature, be a broad church. You have both christian and social democrats in the one party. It is in effect a coalition. Hard to keep that as one over a longer period of time.

  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,279 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody

    Great, if Forbes loses I'm sure she will blame it because of discrimination of her beliefs etc. rather than her putting her foot in her mouth on multiple topics as a politican...

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,568 ✭✭✭rock22

    The Scottish government can only allocate expenditure from what resources it receives, mainly in the block grant. And that is set in Westminster .It cannot decide to tax the City financial institutions in order to spend more on health and education.

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,632 ✭✭✭✭Danzy

    You'd have to expect Yousaf to win, the continuity Sturgeon candidate.

    The SNP is becoming more of a niche party day by day.

    Hopefully he won't finish off the chance of Scottish independence.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,568 ✭✭✭rock22

    Yousaf won but not by an overwhelming number.

    Final tally was Yousaf 26,032 and Forbes 23,890 after distributing Regan's vote.

    So endorsement for continuity, but not by much