House prices.

from_atozinc

Hi

This maybe a hard one to call as nobody really knows how things will go. What do ye reckon with Brexit? Will house prices go up or down.

I know it’s a very high level question. Just wondering what ye think.

Allinall

from_atozinc wrote: »

Hi

This maybe a hard one to call as nobody really knows how things will go. What do ye reckon with Brexit? Will house prices go up or down.

I know it’s a very high level question. Just wondering what ye think.

My personal opinion is that there won't be a brexit for a long time yet, if at all.

If an extension is granted, or Article 50 revoked, then markets in general will settle down and return to somewhat normal trading.

For the Irish housing market, I think this would mean more activity that now, which in turn will bring very modest price increases.

I have been known to be wrong many times.

from_atozinc

Allinall wrote: »

My personal opinion is that there won't be a brexit for a long time yet, if at all.

If an extension is granted, or Article 50 revoked, then markets in general will settle down and return to somewhat normal trading.

For the Irish housing market, I think this would mean more activity that now, which in turn will bring very modest price increases.

I have been known to be wrong many times.

Thanks. Yeah tricky one to call. So slightly UP is your thought.

Interested Observer

Nobody knows. If you're buying a house to live in then do not make a decision based on what might or might not happen with Brexit.

SozBbz

Brexit may indeed be a disaster but it won't change the fact that people will need a roof over their heads. Rents are extremely expensive and as people move through the phases of live, they're going to want to live in family homes where they feel they can properly put down roots and make it their own. Thats not really possible in the Irish rental market. So I think people will always want to buy houses.

I think we've seen the end of prices racing ahead for now, but I dont see a prices falling back massively either, especially in good areas.

drunkmonkey

All depends on where the in the country your taking about. Looking at Dublin I'd say definitely down over the medium term (5/10yrs). Just flicking through the times property pages and your looking at maybe 550k for 3 bed semi in Dublin. It's way too much, I'd guess a lot of people are walking a very fine line trying to keep on top of everything any wobble in the global economy could cause a glut of defaults. I think even 350k for a 3 bed semi is high. There's a serious correction due if supply meets demand.

Outside Dublin especially on train lines I'd expect things to stay stable enough maybe increase a bit. At the moment if your prepared to take the train to Dublin in the morning a similar 3 bed semi your probably looking at saving 350/400k on the purchase price.

SozBbz

drunkmonkey wrote: »

All depends on where the in the country your taking about. Looking at Dublin I'd say definitely down over the medium term (5/10yrs). Just flicking through the times property pages and your looking at maybe 550k for 3 bed semi in Dublin. It's way too much, I'd guess a lot of people are walking a very fine line trying to keep on top of everything any wobble in the global economy could cause a glut of defaults. I think even 350k for a 3 bed semi is high. There's a serious correction due if supply meets demand.

This is a false logic IMO. Just because you or another individual percieve a certain price for a certain house in Dublin is too much, doesnt make it so. Dublin is a capital city and prices here are not wildly out of step with similar cities.

From talking to friends and colleagues who have bought in the last few years, I don't know anyone who is under massive pressure due to their mortgage. Because of the Central Bank Rules, people have been to a large degree protected from themselves and are well placed too withstand shocks if they happen. I wouldnt be hanging on waiting for a correction - we won't see 2008 all over again because people have saved real deposits and have had their borrowing limited in line with the reality of what they earn.

the only people I know who feel precarious are those in rented accommodation. I know thats all anecdotal, but the shaky foundations that the last boom was build on have thankfully not been repeated. Personal debt is way down and savings are up.

drunkmonkey

Ok I'll play along, how can a nurse and Garda with 2 kids afford to buy a 550k 3 bed in Dublin? Shouldn't they be entitled to a reasonable priced home. Shouldn't that house be around the 250k mark.
I'm in the same boat as you friends wise nobody under much pressure with handy mortgages, it's the people buying now I fear for as we're in a bubble your right it's not caused by reckless lending this time but it's still a bubble caused by a shortage of houses. We either keep the housing crisis going and prices keep going up or we make supply meet demand which will have a serious effect on overpriced houses at the smaller end of the market.

JohnnyChimpo

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Ok I'll play along, how can a nurse and Garda with 2 kids afford to buy a 550k 3 bed in Dublin? Shouldn't they be entitled to a reasonable priced home. Shouldn't that house be around the 250k mark.
I'm in the same boat as you friends wise nobody under much pressure with handy mortgages, it's the people buying now I fear for as we're in a bubble your right it's not caused by reckless lending this time but it's still a bubble caused by a shortage of houses. We either keep the housing crisis going and prices keep going up or we make supply meet demand which will have a serious effect on overpriced houses at the smaller end of the market.

They should, but the State has abdicated its responsibility to build social housing for several generations now. And even prior to that, a lot of social housing projects were historically the result of self-interest from people like the Guinness family.

So, unless there is a major reorientation on that front in the next few years, supply won't catch up to demand and you won't get a decent 3bed semi in Dublin city for anything close to 250k, sad to say.

drunkmonkey

Who's going to staff the hospitals protect the streets. They can't keep rising in Dublin. There's already talk of decentralization again. There is no need for any state jobs to be in Dublin especially at the moment unless their role specifically requires them to be in Dublin.

Xterminator

to be fair have you ever seen the comments in this forum about buying house next to social housing; about how getting social housing is like winning the lottery etc, about how the majority of social housing tenants are trouble etc.

Government policy is IMO only mirroring the opinion of a large swathe of society!

Their group opinion is along the lines of i had to pay for my house, so no way should someone get a house in my estate who has not paid for it. Never mind the housing lists, homelessness, and rent crises. Never mind that so neone on the national average wage cannot afford a house in dublin.

In their own mind they have the two issues separated and cannot see that society benefits from having social housing available, and if the housing authorities have decent stocks of houses to rent out, it discourages the private rental market from overheating, it keeps new house build prices in check, and provides a valuable safety net to the vulnerable in society, eg the homeless with issues like mental health/ addiction etc.

it prevents the spectre of homeless children without adequate eating facilities, without somewhere to study.

It prevents the travesty of HAP where taxpayers money is poured into the pockets of private landlords, now mainly institutional, and with no return on investment for the state.

so by all means criticize the government's short sighted policy that has led us where we are now in the housing market, but dont for one minute forget to first cast out the beam out of thine own eye; and then shalt thou see clearly to cast out the mote out of thy brother's eye

JohnnyChimpo

Xterminator wrote: »

to be fair have you ever seen the comments in this forum about buying house next to social housing; about how getting social housing is like winning the lottery etc, about how the majority of social housing tenants are trouble etc.

Government policy is IMO only mirroring the opinion of a large swathe of society!

Their group opinion is along the lines of i had to pay for my house, so no way should someone get a house in my estate who has not paid for it. Never mind the housing lists, homelessness, and rent crises. Never mind that so neone on the national average wage cannot afford a house in dublin.

In their own mind they have the two issues separated and cannot see that society benefits from having social housing available, and if the housing authorities have decent stocks of houses to rent out, it discourages the private rental market from overheating, it keeps new house build prices in check, and provides a valuable safety net to the vulnerable in society, eg the homeless with issues like mental health/ addiction etc.

it prevents the spectre of homeless children without adequate eating facilities, without somewhere to study.

It prevents the travesty of HAP where taxpayers money is poured into the pockets of private landlords, now mainly institutional, and with no return on investment for the state.

so by all means criticize the government's short sighted policy that has led us where we are now in the housing market, but dont for one minute forget to first cast out the beam out of thine own eye; and then shalt thou see clearly to cast out the mote out of thy brother's eye

While I don't disagree with any of this really, it's the job of elected leaders to lead, and they have not done so for generations, primarily I believe because their class interests do not align with that of the majority of the public.

Bluefoam

JohnnyChimpo wrote: »

While I don't disagree with any of this really, it's the job of elected leaders to lead, and they have not done so for generations, primarily I believe because their class interests do not align with that of the majority of the public.

Is that some sort of silly pun because most TD's are ex teachers? Who would you like to work as TD's? a couple of scrotes off the dole?

Why do you think politicians are classist? Genuine question, is it reflective of your lack of progress?

Xterminator

i think their aims align with that they perceive as the interests of the majority of thier voters!

i dont think FG policies entice Sinn Fein voters, but then vice versa is also true.

rgmmg

Getting this thread back on topic...

In the next couple of years, in Dublin, downwards in my opinion.

Brexit uncertainty (which will likely drag on for a few years yet) and multinationals tax being the main factors.

JohnnyChimpo

Bluefoam wrote: »

Is that some sort of silly pun because most TD's are ex teachers? Who would you like to work as TD's? a couple of scrotes off the dole?

Why do you think politicians are classist? Genuine question, is it reflective of your lack of progress?

If you see the phrase "class interest" and immediately generate some asinine stream of consciousness about teachers, that says more about you I'm afraid.

The concept of classism is also not especially instructive, it obfuscates the simple reality that class as a concept is a relationship between social groups contingent on their material conditions and interests, rather than some absolute arbitrary hierarchy.

When I say "their class interests do not align with that of the majority of the public", the issue I'm referring to is the number of TDs who are landlords or stand to materially gain directly or indirectly from rentier activity, vs the number of TDs who are themselves tenants or otherwise aligned with the conditions and needs of tenants.

As to your last point, I don't really understand what assertion you're making. If you're trying to insinuate that I'm bitter that TDs have a larger wage packet than me (which is the best good-faith effort I can make at parsing your comment) then all I can do is assure you that I make good money, probably a little under TD salary but not by a huge margin (TD perks and expenses notwithstanding). And personally, I would be perfectly happy for TD wages to be higher than they currently are.

from_atozinc

rgmmg wrote: »

Getting this thread back on topic...

In the next couple of years, in Dublin, downwards in my opinion.

Brexit uncertainty (which will likely drag on for a few years yet) and multinationals tax being the main factors.

Thanks. Good to get back on topic.

Downwards much or just a little?

Bluefoam

JohnnyChimpo wrote: »

If you see the phrase "class interest" and immediately generate some asinine stream of consciousness about teachers, that says more about you I'm afraid.

The concept of classism is also not especially instructive, it obfuscates the simple reality that class as a concept is a relationship between social groups contingent on their material conditions and interests, rather than some absolute arbitrary hierarchy.

When I say "their class interests do not align with that of the majority of the public", the issue I'm referring to is the number of TDs who are landlords or stand to materially gain directly or indirectly from rentier activity, vs the number of TDs who are themselves tenants or otherwise aligned with the conditions and needs of tenants.

As to your last point, I don't really understand what assertion you're making. If you're trying to insinuate that I'm bitter that TDs have a larger wage packet than me (which is the best good-faith effort I can make at parsing your comment) then all I can do is assure you that I make good money, probably a little under TD salary but not by a huge margin (TD perks and expenses notwithstanding). And personally, I would be perfectly happy for TD wages to be higher than they currently are.

I see, it appears you are slightly confused. Modern day property ownership has little to do with the class system & is more to do with the haves & have nots. Your mistake, I'll let it go.

SozBbz

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Ok I'll play along, how can a nurse and Garda with 2 kids afford to buy a 550k 3 bed in Dublin? Shouldn't they be entitled to a reasonable priced home. Shouldn't that house be around the 250k mark.
I'm in the same boat as you friends wise nobody under much pressure with handy mortgages, it's the people buying now I fear for as we're in a bubble your right it's not caused by reckless lending this time but it's still a bubble caused by a shortage of houses. We either keep the housing crisis going and prices keep going up or we make supply meet demand which will have a serious effect on overpriced houses at the smaller end of the market.

OK you've come up with this arbitrary number of €550k. I think more realistic number would be €400k. So i put that into MyHome.ie and searched for semi-d's in Dublin 9. 46 results, many closer to €300k.

Whats wrong with that for a hypothetical teacher and Guard?

No one should expect to be able to buy easily in the most affluent post codes in the country, but I think the D9 area is sensible as its mature, and inside the M50.

Anyway, their jobs are both bomb proof and they'll get increments, so maybe they can trade up in time.

People need to know at this stage that you need to have savings etc if you want to buy a house. Thats been the case for years now and in my experience people knuckle down for a year or two to get the deposit together, because they know thats how it is.

House prices are not suddenly going to drop to €250k just because you think thats a good number. Markets don't work like that. If a builder can only get €250k for a new house, then they simply won't bother.

This is a few years old now but it estimates the average cost of building a new Semi D in Dublin is €330k. Builders aren't going to work for nothing, and they're not going to take risks if the margin isn't there. So therefore, supply will never meet demand at that price.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/surveyors-break-down-the-cost-of-building-a-threebed-semi-d-in-dublin-34726020.html

Bez Bing

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Ok I'll play along, how can a nurse and Garda with 2 kids afford to buy a 550k 3 bed in Dublin? Shouldn't they be entitled to a reasonable priced home. Shouldn't that house be around the 250k mark.
I'm in the same boat as you friends wise nobody under much pressure with handy mortgages, it's the people buying now I fear for as we're in a bubble your right it's not caused by reckless lending this time but it's still a bubble caused by a shortage of houses. We either keep the housing crisis going and prices keep going up or we make supply meet demand which will have a serious effect on overpriced houses at the smaller end of the market.

It's simple economics, demand and supply will determine market prices.
The hard truth is there are many couples living in Dublin working in finance, IT, engineering, medicine, law etc. that can afford 550K+ even with the central bank rules.
If a guard and nurse want to continue to live in Dublin then they will have to look to less expensive areas e.g. Lucan, Walkingstown, Tallaght etc. or move outside the city to Kildare, Meath etc.
I don't see house prices in the very desirable areas of Dublin falling much if at all.



This is the same the world over. How many nurses, police officers, teachers who work in Manhattan live there? Very few, they will mostly live in New Jersey, Upstate NY, Queens or the Bronx and commute in. The same is true across the water in London.

JohnnyChimpo

Bluefoam wrote: »

I see, it appears you are slightly confused. Modern day property ownership has little to do with the class system & is more to do with the haves & have nots. Your mistake, I'll let it go.

yes, point proven, you don't understand basic concepts. thank you for your understanding I guess. maybe consider actually making a contribution to the thread topic at hand

reg114

Boris will seek an extension beyond the Brexit deadline of Oct 31st who swore on his life he would stick to. Indeed he has already submitted documents to the Scottish parliament to that effect. I would expect a general election in the UK to happen before another deadline date is reached. This means more uncertainty for the Irish economy and the housing market. From personal experience the housing market here has ground to a halt, this started in the spring of this year.

If a no deal Hard brexit happens the UK will go into recession of that there is no doubt. Ireland will quickly follow suit. Irelands economy is already overheating, meanwhile Germany is virtually in recession and US industrial output has been weaken in recent months by US / Chinese trade wars. Globally we have experienced sustained economic from for 7/8 years so are due a downturn. If I was looking to buy a property I would hold my nerve until the downturn bites.

Ireland in recession will haemorrhage 1000s of of foreign workers just like it did the last time. Rental stocks will become freed up and rental prices will fall 30 -40% just like they did during the last crash. The residential market will invariably be affected just like it was last time and with fewer people in the position to buy property as unemployment rates once more rise, the prices of property across the country will fall. If you can hold your nerve because as sure as night follows day, a downturn is on the horizon

riddles

Bez Bing wrote: »

The hard truth is there are many couples living in Dublin working in finance, IT, engineering, medicine, law etc. that can afford 550K+ even with the central bank rules.


That maybe the case in the short term but there is a lot of volatility that could make that story change pretty quickly. A mortgage is not just for Christmas..........

SozBbz

reg114 wrote: »

Ireland in recession will haemorrhage 1000s of of foreign workers just like it did the last time. Rental stocks will become freed up and rental prices will fall 30 -40% just like they did during the last crash. The residential market will invariably be affected just like it was last time and with fewer people in the position to buy property as unemployment rates once more rise, the prices of property across the country will fall. If you can hold your nerve because as sure as night follows day, a downturn is on the horizon

I know we all have opinions but IMO this is absolutely baseless speculation.

Anyone waiting for things to be "just like the last time" will be in for a long wait.

I think a downturn is possible/likely in the next 3-5 years, but the last recession was a spectacular perfect storm. The conditions now are not the same.

Its perfectly normal for prices to go up and down, and we should all see slow rises and slow falls as normal and nothing to fear/wish for.

Anyway - cards on the table, I get my keys next week for a house I plan to be carried out of in a box, and even with all the termoil, i know I can afford the mortgage and the house is a complete one off and I'm happy to have it and never move again. If in a year its down €20k or €50k, I wont care because I won't be moving. If its up the same amount, equally irrelevant for the same reason.

Brussels Sprout

from_atozinc wrote: »

Thanks. Good to get back on topic.

Downwards much or just a little?

OP, every month or two there is a thread like this and it just devolves into an argument within a few posts.

By its very nature the people on this sub-forum are likely to be people who have a personal interest in seeing the price of property rise or fall depending on their own personal circumstances.

Trying to determine whether prices are likely to rise or fall in the future by asking about it in here is likely to be as effective as starting a thread in the Soccer forum asking if Man United or Liverpool are the greatest english football team of all time.

oleard1987

SozBbz wrote: »

I know we all have opinions but IMO this is absolutely baseless speculation.

Anyone waiting for things to be "just like the last time" will be in for a long wait.

I think a downturn is possible/likely in the next 3-5 years, but the last recession was a spectacular perfect storm. The conditions now are not the same.

Its perfectly normal for prices to go up and down, and we should all see slow rises and slow falls as normal and nothing to fear/wish for.

Anyway - cards on the table, I get my keys next week for a house I plan to be carried out of in a box, and even with all the turmoil, i know I can afford the mortgage and the house is a complete one off and I'm happy to have it and never move again. If in a year its down €20k or €50k, I wont care because I won't be moving. If its up the same amount, equally irrelevant for the same reason.

I agree with this ,House is 6/7 weeks from completion and i plan to live there till i get carried out .Value can drop to 20k and i will still be there

Don't think we are anywhere near the crash that happened the last time ,Going by Paschal's comments on Matt Cooper we have nearly 50% less employed in construction as compared to 2006





L

riclad

I do,nt think there,s much chance of house price,s rising after brexit, brexit impose,s extra cost,s on irish company,s who export to britain sterling may fall, the cost of irish goo,d s in the uk will proably rise. prices may stay the same or decline by a few per cent. Irish banks have been well regulated since 2008, they can lend 3- 3.5 times salary for property mortgage,s . There is no big bubble to burst, as there was in 2007.

BDI

Banks stop lending leading to a stop in buyers leading to a price drop, vulture funds buy them all up then they start rising again probably.


Or

All the foreigners try set up offices here and supply can’t keep up with demand and the prices sky rocket then fall again slowly.

I wouldn’t risk the life savings speculating unless I knew somebody who knew and knew what he was doing, problem is not many people seem to really know.

If you are going to live in the house you can worry about interest rates, property taxes, price of lawnmowers it won’t matter, unless you are in on the scam you are just gambling.

JJJackal

The median price of a home nationally is €255,000

The average nurse salary is €40,720, Lets say an average garda is €35,000

40,720 plus 35,000 = 75720 * 3.5 = €265,020

This indicates that a garda and nurse couple can afford the median priced house nationally. They can afford houses all over the country but only in some parts of Dublin. Civil servant jobs do not attract a Dublin premium whereas private sector do.

What does that tell us about house prices!??

JJJackal

JJJackal wrote: »

The median price of a home nationally is €255,000

The average nurse salary is €40,720, Lets say an average garda is €35,000

40,720 plus 35,000 = 75720 * 3.5 = €265,020

This indicates that a garda and nurse couple can afford the median priced house nationally. They can afford houses all over the country but only in some parts of Dublin. Civil servant jobs do not attract a Dublin premium whereas private sector do.

What does that tell us about house prices!??

I would suggest that the salary figures I picked are at the lower end of the nurse and garda salary scales

lleti

I feel like people see house prices as sensible currently compared to the insane rents which are in part due to the CB rules.

Our rents are built on the back of foreigners, living here working or studying for a few years.