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Five countries' fates resting on one kick.......

  • 07-10-2019 3:51pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 5,273 ✭✭✭ Snickers Man


    At the time of writing, Pool A in the 2019 RWC is finely poised. Japan lead the group on 14 points, Ireland in second place on 11 and Scotland have 5.

    Scotland must play Russia in mid week; Ireland finish their pool games against Samoa on Saturday before Scotland and Japan bring the group to a close on Sunday. Here's an improbable but not altogether outlandish scenario.

    Let's say Scotland beat Russia with a bonus point. That's hardly an outrageous proposition. In fact, I doubt too many bookies will be taking bets on that and if they do, they will only offer ridiculously odds-on prices.
    Then say on Saturday, Ireland beat Samoa with a bonus point. You would probably get a price on that from a bookie and nothing can be taken for granted with this Irish team but again, hardly an outlandish suggestion.

    So that would leave Scotland and Japan going into the last match with Ireland leading the group on 16 points, Japan next on 14 and Scotland on 10. Now the Scots will know that to progress they must win and at least match the Japanese on bonus points. So they will have to either win by more than 7 points OR score four tries OR both. Because if Japan score four tries, Scotland will HAVE to deny them a losing bonus, even if the Scots themselves manage four tries.

    Let's say the Scots decide that the safest way to ensure qualification is to attempt to get their own bonus point and start throwing the ball around with gay abandon so that an open high-scoring game ensues. And let's say that as injury time approaches Scotland are leading by 14 points having secured a try bonus point and are keeping Japan, who have scored three tries at bay.

    With the clock in the red, Japan score a try in the corner to secure a try bonus. But they will still be 9 points behind. To get a losing bonus they will need to make the kick. Think what that would mean.

    Either the kick is successful or it isn't. If it's successful, Japan finish with 16 points (two BPs in last match) and top the group ahead of Ireland, also on 16, by virtue of winning the head to head. Japan therefore play South Africa in the quarter final; Ireland play New Zealand and Scotland go home.

    If the kick fails Japan finish on 15 points, level with Scotland but lose out on the head to head. Ireland win the group and play South Africa in the quarters; Scotland play New Zealand, Japan go out. All on one kick.

    This has happened before. Back in 1973. I know cause I was there. :)

    In the Five Nations (as was) in those days there was no points difference used to separate teams level on match points. Titles where shared rather than decided on count back. That year all teams had won their home matches when France travelled to Dublin to take on Ireland on April 14th. The last match had taken place a full three weeks earlier!

    In a dull game Ireland were leading 6-0 (two kicks) as the game entered its final minutes. Then a French winger (whose name was Philliponeau, if i recall) got over in the corner and then ran around underneath the posts to give his kicker an easier kick.

    A conversion from under the posts to win the championship! If he got it, the game would be tied (four point tries in those days) France would end with five points, Ireland with three, England Scotland Wales on four each.

    All five nations waiting on the kick. What could go wrong?

    Maybe it was the capricious Landsowne Road weather. Maybe Jean Pierre Romeu had an off day but whatever it was......HE MISSED!!! And for the first time ever the Five Nations ended in a four-way tie.

    Could something similar happen on Sunday?

    Keep chewing those nails.


Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,355 ✭✭✭ easypazz


    Highly improbable scenario.


  • Registered Users Posts: 565 ✭✭✭ frosty123


    Too much time on your hands OP?


  • Site Banned Posts: 127 ✭✭ whatcanidonow


    Fates are 3 weaving goddesses.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,143 ✭✭✭ locum-motion


    ... And for the first time ever the Five Nations ended in a four-way tie...

    Great story & well told, but surely you meant five-way tie!


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,273 ✭✭✭ Snickers Man


    Great story & well told, but surely you meant five-way tie!

    Of course. Well spotted.

    And if you want to see the try and kick, here it is. :)



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  • Registered Users Posts: 20,345 ✭✭✭✭ Podge_irl


    good lord, how did he miss that. Very weird straight on kicking technique.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,386 ✭✭✭✭ Trojan


    Interesting story. That was the year of the famous quote from the English captain "Well we might not be any good but at least we turned up" :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,035 ✭✭✭✭ Squidgy Black


    Podge_irl wrote: »
    good lord, how did he miss that. Very weird straight on kicking technique.

    Looked like he was trying to bog-toe it

    Edit: looking back at some old footage on YouTube it seems like that was how everyone kicked at the time


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 30,746 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Insect Overlord


    The camera angle makes it look easier than it was. Shocking kicking technique though. :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,386 ✭✭✭✭ Trojan


    Yep, looking at old matches they all look like total amateurs.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,273 ✭✭✭ Snickers Man


    Looked like he was trying to bog-toe it

    Edit: looking back at some old footage on YouTube it seems like that was how everyone kicked at the time

    They certainly did. And he was one of the better ones!!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,070 ✭✭✭✭ fryup


    Trojan wrote: »
    Yep, looking at old matches they all look like total amateurs.

    which they were ;)


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 271 ✭✭ lleti


    OP is weird. A different result means different placing in the group, hardly outrageous thinking.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,189 ✭✭✭ Hoboo


    Looked like he was trying to bog-toe it

    Edit: looking back at some old footage on YouTube it seems like that was how everyone kicked at the time

    Kicking flat off the ground and not using a tee, you can angle the ball now, it's sitting up, and the chances of it falling over are next to zero.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,273 ✭✭✭ Snickers Man


    Hoboo wrote: »
    Kicking flat off the ground and not using a tee, you can angle the ball now, it's sitting up, and the chances of it falling over are next to zero.

    Also the ball was very different then. Made of leather, soaked up moisture very readily and was easily bent out of shape. Consequently, giving it a good belt with the toe of your bog boot (and rugby boots back then were very much bog boots) was actually a sensible tactic.

    Much of the reason for the bigger score lines seen in recent years compared with earlier times is the greater success rate of kickers, not any massive increase in try numbers.

    Another interesting fact: When Ireland won the Grand Slam in 1948 they did it without scoring a single penalty goal in any of their matches. Imagine that happening today!!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,273 ✭✭✭ Snickers Man


    lleti wrote: »
    OP is weird..

    Very weird, actually. Thank you. :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,937 ✭✭✭ $hifty


    This super typhoon could see the Scotland/Japan decider cancelled, giving each team 2pts and seeing Ireland top the group.

    Edit: I'm an idiot


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,823 ✭✭✭✭ Riskymove


    $hifty wrote: »
    This super typhoon could see the Scotland/Japan decider cancelled, giving each team 2pts and seeing Ireland top the group.

    It wont be


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,035 ✭✭✭✭ Squidgy Black


    $hifty wrote: »
    This super typhoon could see the Scotland/Japan decider cancelled, giving each team 2pts and seeing Ireland top the group.

    Ireland wouldn't top the group in that scenario, Japan would due to head to head.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,273 ✭✭✭ Snickers Man


    Ireland wouldn't top the group in that scenario, Japan would due to head to head.


    In one scenario given in the OP, Ireland and Japan would have finished on 16 points each and Japan would have topped the group one head to head.
    In the other, Japan would only have 15 points and therefore Ireland would have topped the group by virtue of being one point ahead.

    Snickers Man is NEVER WRONG, you innumerate peasant!!!

    How dare you question the omniscient!!!!

    :)


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