Five countries' fates resting on one kick.......

At the time of writing, Pool A in the 2019 RWC is finely poised. Japan lead the group on 14 points, Ireland in second place on 11 and Scotland have 5.

Scotland must play Russia in mid week; Ireland finish their pool games against Samoa on Saturday before Scotland and Japan bring the group to a close on Sunday. Here's an improbable but not altogether outlandish scenario.

Let's say Scotland beat Russia with a bonus point. That's hardly an outrageous proposition. In fact, I doubt too many bookies will be taking bets on that and if they do, they will only offer ridiculously odds-on prices.
Then say on Saturday, Ireland beat Samoa with a bonus point. You would probably get a price on that from a bookie and nothing can be taken for granted with this Irish team but again, hardly an outlandish suggestion.

So that would leave Scotland and Japan going into the last match with Ireland leading the group on 16 points, Japan next on 14 and Scotland on 10. Now the Scots will know that to progress they must win and at least match the Japanese on bonus points. So they will have to either win by more than 7 points OR score four tries OR both. Because if Japan score four tries, Scotland will HAVE to deny them a losing bonus, even if the Scots themselves manage four tries.

Let's say the Scots decide that the safest way to ensure qualification is to attempt to get their own bonus point and start throwing the ball around with gay abandon so that an open high-scoring game ensues. And let's say that as injury time approaches Scotland are leading by 14 points having secured a try bonus point and are keeping Japan, who have scored three tries at bay.

With the clock in the red, Japan score a try in the corner to secure a try bonus. But they will still be 9 points behind. To get a losing bonus they will need to make the kick. Think what that would mean.

Either the kick is successful or it isn't. If it's successful, Japan finish with 16 points (two BPs in last match) and top the group ahead of Ireland, also on 16, by virtue of winning the head to head. Japan therefore play South Africa in the quarter final; Ireland play New Zealand and Scotland go home.

If the kick fails Japan finish on 15 points, level with Scotland but lose out on the head to head. Ireland win the group and play South Africa in the quarters; Scotland play New Zealand, Japan go out. All on one kick.

This has happened before. Back in 1973. I know cause I was there.

In the Five Nations (as was) in those days there was no points difference used to separate teams level on match points. Titles where shared rather than decided on count back. That year all teams had won their home matches when France travelled to Dublin to take on Ireland on April 14th. The last match had taken place a full three weeks earlier!

In a dull game Ireland were leading 6-0 (two kicks) as the game entered its final minutes. Then a French winger (whose name was Philliponeau, if i recall) got over in the corner and then ran around underneath the posts to give his kicker an easier kick.

A conversion from under the posts to win the championship! If he got it, the game would be tied (four point tries in those days) France would end with five points, Ireland with three, England Scotland Wales on four each.

All five nations waiting on the kick. What could go wrong?

Maybe it was the capricious Landsowne Road weather. Maybe Jean Pierre Romeu had an off day but whatever it was......HE MISSED!!! And for the first time ever the Five Nations ended in a four-way tie.

Could something similar happen on Sunday?

Keep chewing those nails.