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October 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 28-09-2019 1:55am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. . Predict the "IMT" (Irish Mean Temperature), an average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon, for October. The average for 1981-2010 was 10.1 C.

    2. Predict the MAX, highest temperature at any of 25 reporting stations as listed on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" during the month of October.

    3. Predict the MIN, lowest temperature at any of 25 reporting stations as listed on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" during the month of October.

    4. Predict the PRC, average precip for eleven locations including the five listed above in addition to Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia, as a percentage of normal (which would be 100%).

    5. Predict the SUN, average sunshine for six locations (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia) as a percentage of normal.

    6. BONUS: What will be the lowest observed temperature at midnight at the end of October (Halloween night) as reported on the met.ie website for that hour (00h 1st Nov)? Location not required.

    The deadline for on time entries is 0300h of Tuesday 1st October, with the usual late penalties (one point deducted for every four hours or portion, larger penalties after 36h of one point per hour).

    Good luck. Here are the forecasts from "NormaL" ...

    10.1 _ 21.0 _ -2.8 _ 100 _ 100 __ 3.0

    Note, I received forecast from waterways by a p.m. as they anticipated being off-line during the usual forecast time period. Will post that forecast (I was able to get a bonus guess too) with mine later.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,717 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal__ 10.5 _ 20.3 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 96 __ 6.0


  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3 ____ 10.8 _ 21. 6_ -2.5 _ 115 _ 90 __4.0


  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 ____ 10.4 _ 20.0_ -2.0 _ 110 _ 100 __3.0


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,121 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ____ 10.5 _ 21.8_ -2.1 _ 109 _ 88 __2.3


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,572 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ___ 10.5 ___ 21.0 ___ -3.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 0.0


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen ____ 11.2 _ 20.0_ -2.1 _ 110 _ 90 __ 2.1

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels———- _ 11.3_ 21- -2.1 _ 110 _ 90 __ 2.1


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,407 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts __ 10.6 _ 20.5 _ -1.6 _ 110 _ 96 __ 5.0


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn _________ 11.1 _ 19.5_ -1.8 _ 120 _ 90 __ 5.5


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry_________ 11.8_ 21.0_ -3_ 148 _ 94__ 9.8


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    (received on 26th by p.m.)

    Waterways _________________ 10.4 _ 20.7 _ -3.2 _ 112 _ 97 _4.2

    and then mine

    M.T. Cranium ________________ 9.7 _ 21.0 _ -3.8 _ 150 _ 100 _ -1.5


  • Registered Users Posts: 318 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 10.4 ___ 20.0 ____ -2.0 ___ 105 ___ 85 ___ 4.0


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir __________ 11.0 _ 20.2 _ -1.7 _ 133 _ 95 _ 5.8


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    MrsKinner:______10.6___20___-1.7___116___100___-0.7


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,773 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa ___ 10.7 ___ 20.9 ___ -2.3 ___ 165 ___ 82 ___ 1.1


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7___9.6 ___ 19.9 ___-4.0 ___ 150 ___ 100 ____ -2.8


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,997 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac_________ 10.3_ 21.0_ -3.5_ 107 _ 93__ 3.1


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,770 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire ____ 10.6 _ 20. 4_ -1.5 _ 125 _ 80 __3.6


  • Registered Users Posts: 748 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    Adam240610__10.9__19.9__-2.9__130__66__0.3


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,746 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public_____10.2 _ 19.8 _ -3.2 _ 130 _ 95 __ 1.5


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Sorry for the delay!

    Artane2002 ____ 11.0 _ 20.2_ -1.2 _ 115 _ 90 __ 3.2


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of Forecasts for October 2019


    FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Min temp 31st 2359h


    pauldry _________________11.8 _ 21.0 _ -3.0 _ 148 _ 094 ____ 9.8

    200motels ______________ 11.3 _ 21.0 _ -2.1 _ 110 _ 090 ____ 2.1

    sryanbruen ______________11.2 _ 20.0 _ -2.1 _ 110 _ 090 ____ 2.1

    Jpmarn _________________11.1 _ 19.5 _ -1.8 _ 120 _ 090 ____ 5.5

    Artane2002 ____ (-4) _____ 11.0 _ 20.2 _ -1.2 _ 115 _ 090 ____ 3.2

    Tae laidir ________________11.0 _ 20.2 _ -1.7 _ 133 _ 095 ____ 5.8

    Adam240610 ___ (-2) _____ 10.9 _ 19.9 _ -2.9 _ 130 _ 066 ____ 0.3

    Sunflower3 ______________ 10.8 _ 21.6 _ -2.5 _ 115 _ 090 ____ 4.0

    Dacogawa _______________10.7 _ 20.9 _ -2.3 _ 165 _ 082 ____ 1.1

    mickger844posts _________ 10.6 _ 20.5 _ -1.6 _ 110 _ 096 ____ 5.0

    Rameire _______ (-2) _____10.6 _ 20.4 _ -1.5 _ 125 _ 080 ____ 3.6

    MrsKinner _______________10.6 _ 20.0 _ -1.7 _ 116 _ 100 ____-0.7


    ___ Con Sensus __________10.6 _ 20.4 _ -2.1 _ 115 _ 095 ____ 3.1


    DOCARCH _______________10.5 _ 21.8 _ -2.1 _ 109 _ 088 ____ 2.3

    Rikand _________________ 10.5 _ 21.0 _ -3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 0.0

    Bsal ___________________ 10.5 _ 20.3 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 096 ____ 6.0

    Waterways ______________ 10.4 _ 20.7 _ -3.2 _ 112 _ 097 ____ 4.2

    Dasa29 _________________ 10.4 _ 20.0 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 100 ____ 3.0

    Kindred Spirit ____________ 10.4 _ 20.0 _ -2.0 _ 105 _ 085 ____ 4.0

    john mac ______ (-1) _____ 10.3 _ 21.0 _ -3.5 _ 107 _ 093 ____ 3.1

    Joe Public _____ (-2) ______10.2 _ 19.8 _ -3.2 _ 130 _ 095 ____ 1.5


    ___ NormaL _____________ 10.1 _ 21.0 _ -2.8 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 3.0


    M.T. Cranium _____________ 9.7 _ 21.0 _ -3.8 _ 150 _ 100 ____-1.5

    BLIZZARD7 _______________9.6 _ 19.9 _ -4.0 _ 150 _ 100 ____ -2.8

    ====================================

    In general, the forecasters are expecting a rather mild month without unusual temperature extremes, rather wet and a bit on the cloudy side. There is an undercurrent of cool and very wet among us.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After one week ...

    IMT on 11.3, 0.1 below normal for the period.

    MAX and MIN have not done much yet, approximately 18 and 1 so far, both of which would set off minimum progression scoring.

    PRC is 146% of normal, most stations not far from that average.

    SUN is 81% of normal (485/600), the southwest a little above average with the rest closer to 70%.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After the second week of October ...

    IMT on 11.0, the week averaged 10.7 which is 0.1 below normal for the period.

    MAX and MIN have not changed since last report and I think they are 17.6 and 1.2 but could have missed something a bit more extreme, in any case not really in play other than to trigger minimum progression scoring.

    PRC now 142% of normal, the week was 138% despite a deluge in Cork and Shannon on 14th, without that the week would likely have finished around normal.

    SUN has edged past normal to 101.5% with this past week 122% of normal (733/600).

    Seems like a sleepy thread now that the bonus question is not trackable, we will get back to something more interactive next month, perhaps.


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Zzzzzzzz.....


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Tae laidir wrote: »
    Zzzzzzzz.....

    That means no work for me but no excitement until the very time UK leaves the EU. MT. promises a bit of work for us but a bit more excitement next month with the bonus question. In the meantime go back to sleep.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    New Min tonight WAKEY WAKEY


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Low temperature of -1.9°C recorded at Mt Dillon on the 21st.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After three weeks ...

    IMT on 10.3, the past week averaged 9.0 deg which is 1.2 below normal. I think the net change from now to 31st will be slightly negative although up and down almost cancelling out. So perhaps 10.1 or so at the final whistle?

    MAX remains sub-18 (I think), difficult to see this being topped now, and a new MIN of -1.9 probably won't be the last word on that subject.

    PRC has fallen to 103% of normal with a relatively dry week that averaged 62% of normal. This will get some further boosts but at a normal pace? Looks a bit under that, PRC could end up in the 95% range. Monday appears to be the key to the answer there.

    SUN is now up to 115% as the past week was quite bright at 141% of normal sunshine (847/600). Would expect this to back off a bit now and end up perhaps 105% by end of the month.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    We're going to have a new MIN as Mountdillon and Markree both had -3 on several hourly obs last night.


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