The Strike is over. What happens now?

Jjameson

MIKEKC wrote: »

The only result I saw was 100,000 cattle held up most going overage, costing farmers a lot of money

Where has this glut gone? There’s no waiting now and the national sure as hell didn’t rise at all. And had this glut been there why do you suppose Larry didn’t drive the knife in and fall the price 20 or 30 cent when there was such supposed desperation to sell. Eamonn moulds procurement manager Slaney meats was chest out predicticting 3.00 a kg and a possibility of less by Christmas pre strike. The best recruitment officer in the county.

MIKEKC

Jjameson wrote: »

Where has this glut gone? There’s no waiting now and the national sure as hell didn’t rise at all. And had this glut been there why do you suppose Larry didn’t drive the knife in and fall the price 20 or 30 cent when there was such supposed desperation to sell. Eamonn moulds procurement manager Slaney meats was chest out predicticting 3.00 a kg and a possibility of less by Christmas pre strike. The best recruitment officer in the county.

The glut wasn't cleared until a few weeks before xmas. Anyone reading boards would know how hard it was to get cattle killed. Here we were getting a few away every few weeks. Had 50 gone overage. Don't proqurment officers always talk down the price?.The strike and the thuggery that went on only strengthened the resolve of the factories.

Water John

A largely, mythical glut, became a self reinforcing stampede.

Jjameson

MIKEKC wrote: »

The glut wasn't cleared until a few weeks before xmas. Anyone reading boards would know how hard it was to get cattle killed. Here we were getting a few away every few weeks. Had 50 gone overage. Don't proqurment officers always talk down the price?.The strike and the thuggery that went on only strengthened the resolve of the factories.

100000 cattle you claim. Where have they gone? The resolve of the industry was fear of setting a precedent that would have strikes every week and erode 8 families from the top 100 rich list.

Panch18

Water John wrote: »

A largely, mythical glut, became a self reinforcing stampede.

Nothing mythical about it

There were loads of farmers around here who were waiting weeks on end to get cattle killed, with loads of cattle going overage, and the costs associated with keeping big cattle for longer and not able to buy back the replacements.

A catastrophe if ever there was one, and to try to brush it under the carpet as “mythical” is a shocking and disgraceful statement to make

Panch18

Jjameson wrote: »

100000 cattle you claim. Where have they gone?

Where do you think they’ve gone?? Seriously, have a word with yourself

Jjameson

Panch18 wrote: »

Where do you think they’ve gone?? Seriously, have a word with yourself

They were never there. The kill never rose. There was no export. Just idiots throwing cattle at the factories and racing to the mart to spend the few bob.

Water John

The system being used, esp with the 30 month rule means farmers are finishing to a specific deadline and get penalised if they over shoot. That's what created the mythical glut. Farmers couldn't hold back cattle because of the 30 month rule. They lost a trump card in negotiating.

Panch18

How you guys can still post this **** is beyond me, pure beyond me

I don’t know what planet ye are living on

MIKEKC

Jjameson wrote: »

100000 cattle you claim. Where have they gone? The resolve of the industry was fear of setting a precedent that would have strikes every week and erode 8 families from the top 100 rich list.

They have
gone through the system slowly. Are you in the real world? Who do you think would suffer most if there was a strike every week? Farmers would have a build up of stock and no income Who do you think could hold out the longest, the farmer with no income and extra expense of feeding the cattle or the people from the top 100 rich list. I am beginning to think that you are just stirring sh1t. You can't be serious after all that was written about strike

Jjameson

show me the numbers.

MIKEKC

Water John wrote: »

The system being used, esp with the 30 month rule means farmers are finishing to a specific deadline and get penalised if they over shoot. That's what created the mythical glut. Farmers couldn't hold back cattle because of the 30 month rule. They lost a trump card in negotiating.

You mean farmers couldnt GET RID of cattle, that's why they went overage

Jjameson

Panch18 wrote: »

Nothing mythical about it

There were loads of farmers around here who were waiting weeks on end to get cattle killed, with loads of cattle going overage, and the costs associated with keeping big cattle for longer and not able to buy back the replacements.

A catastrophe if ever there was one, and to try to brush it under the carpet as “mythical” is a shocking and disgraceful statement to make

The numbers don’t lie. The glut has gone under a mat. 100000 thousand cattle. Where are they or where did they go?

MIKEKC

Jjameson wrote: »

show me the numbers.

How do you think I could show you the numbers? It was reported in the press on several occasions. Can you prove to me that there wasn't a glut. As I said previously several posters said they had difficulty getting cattle killed.

Jjameson

MIKEKC wrote: »

How do you think I could show you the numbers? It was reported in the press on several occasions. Can you prove to me that there wasn't a glut. As I said previously several posters said they had difficulty getting cattle killed.

There was undoubtedly trouble getting cattle killed. But the measurement of the amount of cattle was way wide of the mark, and the farming press extenuated the problem. 100000 is your figure.

Where did they go?

Bass Reeves

MIKEKC wrote: »

The glut wasn't cleared until a few weeks before xmas. Anyone reading boards would know how hard it was to get cattle killed. Here we were getting a few away every few weeks. Had 50 gone overage. Don't proqurment officers always talk down the price?.The strike and the thuggery that went on only strengthened the resolve of the factories.

Panch18 wrote: »

Nothing mythical about it

There were loads of farmers around here who were waiting weeks on end to get cattle killed, with loads of cattle going overage, and the costs associated with keeping big cattle for longer and not able to buy back the replacements.

A catastrophe if ever there was one, and to try to brush it under the carpet as “mythical” is a shocking and disgraceful statement to make

Yes there was a small glut. However it was exasperated by the very bad weather from September. Most lads that had an issue killing cattle had cattle gone over 30 months and generally had a high percentage of these. Other lads that had issues had no regular factory.

In general I deal with two factories. Both within a reasonable distance. The percentage of overage cattle I had when the strike ended was 15% of the total remaining. I had about 50% of this years kill to complete. I had a nitrates issue to watch as well.

As most of the cattle I had were May/June agent would not take any for first few week. I housed about 40% of them in Mid September when I realized the issues and another 20% 2-3 weeks later. When I started getting cattle away I made sure an overage animal went in every box load. If not for nitrates and lack of silage I have hung tough longer.

Some finishers got greedy they started picking up cheap very forward stores in the Marts in September/October. Some got caught with these from late November on as factories were not slaughtering from restricted herds.

I have much preferred to have gone through what I went through than to have being taking 3-3.3/kg base(and only 12c QA) all autumn long.

Larger short term finishers do not give a F@@K as long as they buy and sell in the 70-100 day period. These were the guys hardest hit. They were also the lads getting the extra 20c/kg before the strike. What goes around come's around. They got a taste of the medicine we were getting for the last 12 months and they did not like it.

If they had stood with the strike fron the start it would have lasted no longer than 3-4 weeks but they wanted to break it so they took pain as well at the end

Jjameson

The first of the strike was useless Bass. when the plants were short of live cattle they contracted killing to the independent plants and brought them in in fridges hanging up. Then stopping and clearing gates for protracted talks was the second mistake. The impact wasn’t felt at retail. Had it been a ifa supported blockade. The first in 20 years with numbers behind it, Larry would have had to talk. The impact of the full blockade in slaney was immediate, they were in disbelief actually! Just too late in the year. I was against it at that point to be honest as the opportunity had been missed.
But lessons have been learned.

Bass Reeves

Jjameson wrote: »

The first of the strike was useless Bass. when the plants were short of live cattle they contracted killing to the independent plants and brought them in in fridges hanging up. Then stopping and clearing gates for protracted talks was the second mistake. The impact wasn’t felt at retail. Had it been a ifa supported blockade. The first in 20 years with numbers behind it, Larry would have had to talk. The impact of the full blockade in slaney was immediate, they were in disbelief actually! Just too late in the year. I was against it at that point to be honest as the opportunity had been missed.
But lessons have been learned.

I have said since the end of the strike the reason it was so prolonged was the issue. but that was not the strikers problem. The status quo was against it. When the first strike ended the processor missread the mood and taught they could go back to normal. Both time it took 10-14 days to get the blockade in full swing.As well lifting the blockades after the first strike was a mistake and I kenw that at the time. I knew we would be at the gates again.

There was a lot of black propaganda and as the Donald says fake news by well trained PR people. It is still flying around. But next time factories will be closed faster and lads will not stop picketing untill after all negotiations have been settled

bogman_bass

Jjameson wrote: »

100000 cattle you claim. Where have they gone? The resolve of the industry was fear of setting a precedent that would have strikes every week and erode 8 families from the top 100 rich list.

The kill has been up near 40,000 per week since the blockade ended. That’s where they have gone

Jjameson

bogman_bass wrote: »

The kill has been up near 40,000 per week since the blockade ended. That’s where they have gone

The weekly kill is roughly in line with same period 12 months ago. Nothing extraordinary. The kill was the same level behind 2018 last week as it was at the end of the strike. That 100000 figure was plucked from Adam Woods nether region for an ifa influenced newspaper to cause maximum rift between farmers. They will be pulled up on it yet.

Bass Reeves

bogman_bass wrote: »

The kill has been up near 40,000 per week since the blockade ended. That’s where they have gone

The 2019 kill was 60K behind the 2020. The reason the kill has dropped is nothing to do with the surplus being gone. Rather it is because of the way lads that finished young bulls got it up there nether regions last year they have exited from winter finishing this year.

This trend will continue. From July/August last year it was obvious there was no demand for 18-20 month old store Fr bulls. As well lads with better quality bulls have squeezed them It is not possible to winter finish cattle with present costs with at a base price of less than 4.2/kg unless there is a store or suckler man taking a massive hit.

In a way the processor knew there would be this issue so they stretched out supplies as long as they could. They would have done that anyway.

Just as an add on 4-5 years ago I in general exited winter finishing and said I would never winter finish cattle unless processors were giving gauranteed prices in general i have held to that. Throwing ration into cattle for processors benefit is brain dead

Jjameson

https://fbwat.ch/1p2YTiahWKq8SPuh

wrangler

Jjameson wrote: »

The weekly kill is roughly in line with same period 12 months ago. Nothing extraordinary. The kill was the same level behind 2018 last week as it was at the end of the strike. That 100000 figure was plucked from Adam Woods nether region for an ifa influenced newspaper to cause maximum rift between farmers. They will be pulled up on it yet.

Another sad post, it was MII and Kepak that claimed that 100000 backog was there.
Whether it was there or not, they had the opportunity to use it against the farmers because of the protests.
Processors in the mean time carried on same as usual

https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/beef/beef-prices/kepak-says-100000hd-backlog-of-cattle-in-market-will-take-months-to-clear-38512012.html

Jjameson

wrangler wrote: »

Another sad post, it was MII and Kepak that claimed that 100000 backog was there.
Whether it was there or not, they had the opportunity to use it against the farmers because of the protests.
Processors in the mean time carried on same as usual

Abusive post. It would be up to ifa and the ifa to use the data available from bord bia and the CMms before reporting and spurious claim by mii or a processor.
Sad is a retired sheep farmer ranting and raving about a glut of cattle but yet claiming indifference.

wrangler

Jjameson wrote: »

Abusive post. It would be up to ifa and the ifa to use the data available from bord bia and the CMms before reporting and spurious claim by mii or a processor.
Sad is a retired sheep farmer ranting and raving about a glut of cattle but yet claiming indifference.

The whole thing was such a mess that IFA were right to stay out of it
There was 100000 less cattle killed during the protest than the same few weeks in 2018. IFJ did report that.
That was enough ammunition for the factories to mess with supply and blame the farmers

Jjameson

wrangler wrote: »

The whole thing was such a mess that IFA were right to stay out of it
There was 100000 less cattle killed during the protest than the same few weeks in 2018. IFJ did report that.
That was enough ammunition for the factories to mess with supply and blame the farmers

They were falling them 5 cent a week pre strike using Brexit as an excuse. I firmly believe they would have achieved their aim and have got them sub 3.00 a kg base thereby dragging uk farmers into the gutter with us. Ifa inaction caused the rise of the crazy splinter groups. But the actions to try a justify their inaction and the bluster about the non existent glut was cowardly and again shows how they are happy enough to watch farmers go down the slipway as long as bluebells accounts are in the black. A retired sheep farmer who posted more about the glut than any other poster in defence of ifa. Sad.

MIKEKC

Jjameson wrote: »

They were falling them 5 cent a week pre strike using Brexit as an excuse. I firmly believe they would have achieved their aim and have got them sub 3.00 a kg base thereby dragging uk farmers into the gutter with us. Ifa inaction caused the rise of the crazy splinter groups. But the actions to try a justify their inaction and the bluster about the non existent glut was cowardly and again shows how they are happy enough to watch farmers go down the slipway as long as bluebells accounts are in the black. A retired sheep farmer who posted more about the glut than any other poster in defence of ifa. Sad.

Despite all the evidence that there was a glut why do you continue to talk about the " non existent glut" ? You have so far failed to convince anyone here with your points

Jjameson

MIKEKC wrote: »

Despite all the evidence that there was a glut why do you continue to talk about the " non existent glut" ? You have so far failed to convince anyone here with your points

It was non existent because cattle are now booked in and killed without delay. At the end of the strike the strike was reported as 60000 cattle by the ifa. The ifa and posters such as paunch, wrangler and yourself. That figure is still the same today based o year on year kill. No exports or extraordinary weekly kills. The figures don’t lie. Just ifa stalwarts. A 33 month Charolais r grade steer 810 kg made 1840 today. Lucky all farmers aren’t sheep who believe everything the read and throw cattle at factories and be galas their gone because of the “backlog”.

wrangler

Jjameson wrote: »

They were falling them 5 cent a week pre strike using Brexit as an excuse. I firmly believe they would have achieved their aim and have got them sub 3.00 a kg base thereby dragging uk farmers into the gutter with us. Ifa inaction caused the rise of the crazy splinter groups. But the actions to try a justify their inaction and the bluster about the non existent glut was cowardly and again shows how they are happy enough to watch farmers go down the slipway as long as bluebells accounts are in the black. A retired sheep farmer who posted more about the glut than any other poster in defence of ifa. Sad.

Can you not see that there's nothing to be achieved by protest, I said at the start they'd get nothing, you can say that price was heading for €3, I can say that beef would be dearer now....... look at the lamb trade, up a euro since cattle were supposed to be heading for €3.
Processors have to discourage farmers from selling all their lambs/cattle in the autumn at the handy time of the year, how else are they going to do it only floor the price

ganmo

Jjameson wrote: »

It was non existent because cattle are now booked in and killed without delay. At the end of the strike the strike was reported as 60000 cattle by the ifa. The ifa and posters such as paunch, wrangler and yourself. That figure is still the same today based o year on year kill. No exports or extraordinary weekly kills. The figures don’t lie. Just ifa stalwarts. A 33 month Charolais r grade steer 810 kg made 1840 today. Lucky all farmers aren’t sheep who believe everything the read and throw cattle at factories and be galas their gone because of the “backlog”.

What happened I reckon is that people decided to either not buy animals to feed or delay starting to finish them. Meaning the backlog is no longer at the factory but in farmers sheds.

Have a look at the figures, the calf births from 2 and 3 years ago. Then look at last years kill vs this years