Boom bust economy?

Franz Von Peppercorn II

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

I’d ignore the advice and mutterings of most economists to be honest. The most dismal of sciences.

It’s not really a science like all of the social sciences.

ILoveYourVibes

We need to work on protecting our economy from the world economy a bit. Also the uk.

Brexit is going to destroy our economy.

Franz Von Peppercorn II

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

One thread on here

'' I applied for 50 jobs and can't get one''

Next thread on here

'' 1000's of jobs and we can't even fill the roles'''

That first guy is in Donegal though. The recession hasn’t really left parts of Ireland - the non urban non tourist parts have been hit badly and won’t recover.

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

We need to work on protecting our economy from the world economy a bit. Also the uk.

Brexit is going to destroy our economy.

No it won’t. We really have decoupled from the U.K. quite effectively over the last 30/40 years.

lola85

Franz Von Peppercorn II wrote: »

I find little fault in McWilliams. He was right about the reasons for the last bust and correct in his understanding of the problem with housing now, also correct that this boom is less of a bubble and we can survive Brexit.

He’s another social justice warrior earning 200k a year in his leafy suburb.

Franz Von Peppercorn II

lola85 wrote: »

He’s another social justice warrior earning 200k a year in his leafy suburb.

He’s an economist not an sjw. Is that just a term for someone you don’t like.

lola85

Franz Von Peppercorn II wrote: »

He’s an economist not an sjw. Is that just a term for someone you don’t like.

If you listen to his ramblings you would realise he talks ****e.

Another posh boy reared in private education lecturing us plebs.

The real world wound eat him alive.

Link to him warning us about the recession?

Franz Von Peppercorn II

Franz Von Peppercorn II wrote: »

I find little fault in McWilliams. He was right about the reasons for the last bust and correct in his understanding of the problem with housing now, also correct that this boom is less of a bubble and we can survive Brexit.

From the top of my head, he suggested (after having pumped billions into the Irish Banks) that we sell them to the Chinese for 1 cent.

I really don't want to get into another debate on that shower. Very many of the publicity seeking ones are charlatans. There are exceptions, Karl Whelan being one.

I'm really not even certain that McWilliams or Lucey are entitled to call themselves economists at all. Even the notion that Morgan Kelly - who is a real economist - prophesized the last bust is entirely invented. He predicted a soft landing, just like the Central Bank.

ILoveYourVibes

lola85 wrote: »

If you listen to his ramblings you would realise he talks ****e.

Another posh boy reared in private education lecturing us plebs.

The real world wound eat him alive.

Link to him warning us about the recession?

I warned my teachers in school about the recession. My Dad warned every one.

My teachers told me to shut up and stop being a lippy kid.

No one listened to my Dad.

Recession is the norm he said ..growth is unusual.

The idea is you try and get different parts of your economy growing at different times. Like growing crops. Something is ready to fruit when something else is in decline.

lola85

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

I warned my teachers in school about the recession. My Dad warned every one.

My teachers told me to shut up and stop being a lippy kid.

No one listened to my Dad.

Recession is the norm he said ..growth is unusual.

The idea is you try and get different parts of your economy growing at different times. Like growing crops. Something is ready to fruit when something else is in decline.

Seems you need to get better people to listen to you.

Franz Von Peppercorn II

lola85 wrote: »

If you listen to his ramblings you would realise he talks ****e.

Another posh boy reared in private education lecturing us plebs.

The real world wound eat him alive.

Link to him warning us about the recession?

1) he writes columns, that’s not lecturing plebs. You don’t have to read them.
2) the real world is paying him €200k a year, not eating him alive.
3) he is primarily famous for his comments on the recession.

Still not clear what the social justice angle is.

Franz Von Peppercorn II

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

From the top of my head, he suggested (after having pumped billions into the Irish Banks) that we sell them to the Chinese for 1 cent.

You are really going to have to source that. I can’t find it.

I really don't want to get into another debate on that shower. Very many of the publicity seeking ones are charlatans. There are exceptions, Karl Whelan being one.

Maybe but on the specific case with McWilliams I’m not finding much problems with what he has written although I haven’t read it all.

I'm really not even certain that McWilliams or Lucey are entitled to call themselves economists at all. Even the notion that Morgan Kelly - who is a real economist - prophesized the last bust is entirely invented. He predicted a soft landing, just like the Central Bank.

Kelly certainly predicted disaster for the economy after it happened, i was at that lecture. I’m pretty sure that McWilliams doesn’t call himself, or have to call himself, an economist to write about economics or the economy as a journalist.

Nevertheless he was correct about the bust. Here’s an article from 2008, the date of the collapse of Lehman but before the bust proper when McWilliams predicts that financial institutions in Ireland will collapse. I’m sure official Ireland was in soft landing mode at time, official economists as well.

http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/crisis-hit-banks-are-acting-out-a-shameful-piece-of-theatre/

ILoveYourVibes

lola85 wrote: »

Seems you need to get better people to listen to you.

Those people would not have lived in this country in the early 2000s.

It was obvious the money on the books was not actually in the country just as it as obvious now the money in the country is not on the books.

Franz Von Peppercorn II

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

Those people would not have lived in this country in the early 2000s.

It was obvious the money on the books was not actually in the country just as it as obvious now the money in the country is not on the books.

I disagree about the economy now. In fact unlike the last boom, which was driven primarily by easy credit and property at the end, growth now is more broadly based.

Your father was exactly right about the garden analogy.

antimatterx

wally1990 wrote: »

Just an FYI, if your somewhat interested in economics or these related convos,

David mcwilliams has a great podcast and talks about economics in layman's terms

Its a great listen, give it a go

His podcast is Brilliant. I really look forward to it every Tuesday.

lola85

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

Those people would not have lived in this country in the early 2000s.

It was obvious the money on the books was not actually in the country just as it as obvious now the money in the country is not on the books.

Captain obvious.

Do you want a medal?

Boom_Bap

I do like a fine bust, but not paying for it.

riclad

This boom is driven by investment by multinational,s ,tourism,
a booming economy in europe and low interest rates .
It,s real in that its not based on easy credit, or crazy lending by bank,s ,
or rising house price,s ,or people borrowing money to buy property .
There were a few people who predicted a bust in 2007,
but they were ignored ,
until suddenly house,s price,s fell, some people were unable to pay their loan,,s and house,s were worth less than the mortgages that were used to buy them.

grindle

lola85 wrote: »

Link to him warning us about the recession?

Whatever about whether or not he speaks shíte, he was going on about the likelihood we were in the midst of a Japanese-style property bubble on his midday TV3 show back when I was doing my leaving, that was around 1999-2001?

It was crazy price growth for an asset everybody has to make use of. Pullbacks happen. He's not a genius for spotting it but what fuelled his rise was a constant stream of people arguing against him saying it would never stop going up, like they were entitled to 5-20% increases in house price every year while wages flagged far behind and credit was abused.

Despite prices rising by 23 per cent and no sign of any imminent slowdown, 1998 was filled with dire predictions of bubbles bursting and property crashes, with the ESRI calling for a slowdown in house prices.

Nobody knew exactly when it would top out, only that it had to at some point - he could've been a talking head for two decades and saying "Ah lads, this is a bit wreckless now" and eventually he'd be right. Doesn't take away from the common sense that made him right in the first place. If massive growth seems unsustainable and a country has to rely on the thing causing the massive growth, it probably is unsustainable and the country should expect a pinch for being cheeky.

Greentopia

Pinch Flat wrote: »

We’re a small open economy that’s totally exposed to external shocks, brexit will be the next big one. Things go pear shaped here fast but recover reasonably quickly. I work in construction so have seen a few booms and busts at this stage.

I always hear the "it's a small open economy" reason as if that should explain why we can't keep things in a more steady state economically.

Denmark is a small economy with a similar population size and even smaller land mass.
Iceland (apart from the crash years) and with a population of only around 360,000 has managed to bounce back and remain on an even keel since then with very low unemployment. They both have very diverse economies, some of the lowest rates of income inequality in the world and consistency ranked in the top 5 happiest nations on earth and highest on the UN Human Development Index.

Norway also similar population and rankings. Yes they have oil, but it still only accounts for less than 4% of GDP and even if they never discovered it the country would still, according to economists and economic historians there still be "on par with Sweden and Denmark." https://sciencenorway.no/economy-forskningno-norway/what-would-norway-be-like-without-oil-money/1442935

We should be asking ourselves why they can manage to largely avoid boom and bust and we can't and what can we learn from them.

I think the problem in this country is we seem happy to put all our resources into foreign investment instead of developing enough indigenous industries leaving ourselves more open to outside shocks, don't invest in our people enough -affordable access to the best education for everyone, not just those who can afford it, have too much income inequality driven by the wrong government policies, allow neoliberal "market forces" to dictate everything causing lack of affordability and choice in the housing sector in particular, and have a tax system that is too narrow and inadequate to cater for the investment needed in radically improving public services.

We also have politicians who have little imagination and just follow the Anglo-Saxon economic model in the UK particularly instead of drawing from and copying aspects of the best examples from other similar size economies in Europe that manage to do some things better than us.

El_Duderino 09

Franz Von Peppercorn II wrote: »

He’s an economist not an sjw. Is that just a term for someone you don’t like.

Plus what’s wrong with earning 200k a year and still acknowledging that public money could be well spend investing in affordable housing for people who aren’t on 200k a year?

Sunny Disposition

Greentopia wrote: »

I always hear the "it's a small open economy" reason as if that should explain why we can't keep things in a more steady state economically.

Denmark is a small economy with a similar population size and even smaller land mass.
Iceland (apart from the crash years) and with a population of only around 360,000 has managed to bounce back and remain on an even keel since then with very low unemployment. They both have very diverse economies, some of the lowest rates of income inequality in the world and consistency ranked in the top 5 happiest nations on earth and highest on the UN Human Development Index.

Norway also similar population and rankings. Yes they have oil, but it still only accounts for less than 4% of GDP and even if they never discovered it the country would still, according to economists and economic historians there still be "on par with Sweden and Denmark." https://sciencenorway.no/economy-forskningno-norway/what-would-norway-be-like-without-oil-money/1442935

We should be asking ourselves why they can manage to largely avoid boom and bust and we can't and what can we learn from them.

I think the problem in this country is we seem happy to put all our resources into foreign investment instead of developing enough indigenous industries leaving ourselves more open to outside shocks, don't invest in our people enough -affordable access to the best education for everyone, not just those who can afford it, have too much income inequality driven by the wrong government policies, allow neoliberal "market forces" to dictate everything causing lack of affordability and choice in the housing sector in particular, and have a tax system that is too narrow and inadequate to cater for the investment needed in radically improving public services.

We also have politicians who have little imagination and just follow the Anglo-Saxon economic model in the UK particularly instead of drawing from and copying aspects of the best examples from other similar size economies in Europe that manage to do some things better than us.

Interesting post, politicians certainly are a big part of the problem. But would we listen to anyone who wasn’t offering more of the same? Who genuinely was prepared to change course?

anewme

I've been through a couple of boom to bust cycles now.

I'd like to cash out before the next one, but I'm not sure I'll be able to.

The trick is to keep ploughing ahead and not get pulled down by either cycle. Dont lose the run of yourself. Anyone who kept working even in an ok job through the last recession has to be in a financially good place now.

Many people I know are now saddled with rubbish apartments in Sunny Beach from the last recession and interest only mortgages on their homes. So you exhaggersted your earnings to get your mortgage and somehow it's the Banks fault?

Technology and automation are big game changers coming for us. I hope to cash out before that impact.

Mad_maxx

Greentopia wrote: »

Pinch Flat wrote: »

We’re a small open economy that’s totally exposed to external shocks, brexit will be the next big one. Things go pear shaped here fast but recover reasonably quickly. I work in construction so have seen a few booms and busts at this stage.

I always hear the "it's a small open economy" reason as if that should explain why we can't keep things in a more steady state economically.

Denmark is a small economy with a similar population size and even smaller land mass.
Iceland (apart from the crash years) and with a population of only around 360,000 has managed to bounce back and remain on an even keel since then with very low unemployment. They both have very diverse economies, some of the lowest rates of income inequality in the world and consistency ranked in the top 5 happiest nations on earth and highest on the UN Human Development Index.

Norway also similar population and rankings. Yes they have oil, but it still only accounts for less than 4% of GDP and even if they never discovered it the country would still, according to economists and economic historians there still be "on par with Sweden and Denmark." https://sciencenorway.no/economy-forskningno-norway/what-would-norway-be-like-without-oil-money/1442935

We should be asking ourselves why they can manage to largely avoid boom and bust and we can't and what can we learn from them.

I think the problem in this country is we seem happy to put all our resources into foreign investment instead of developing enough indigenous industries leaving ourselves more open to outside shocks, don't invest in our people enough -affordable access to the best education for everyone, not just those who can afford it, have too much income inequality driven by the wrong government policies, allow neoliberal "market forces" to dictate everything causing lack of affordability and choice in the housing sector in particular, and have a tax system that is too narrow and inadequate to cater for the investment needed in radically improving public services.

We also have politicians who have little imagination and just follow the Anglo-Saxon economic model in the UK particularly instead of drawing from and copying aspects of the best examples from other similar size economies in Europe that manage to do some things better than us.

Ireland is not especially unequal

Mad_maxx

riclad wrote: »

This boom is driven by investment by multinational,s ,tourism,
a booming economy in europe and low interest rates .
It,s real in that its not based on easy credit, or crazy lending by bank,s ,
or rising house price,s ,or people borrowing money to buy property .
There were a few people who predicted a bust in 2007,
but they were ignored ,
until suddenly house,s price,s fell, some people were unable to pay their loan,,s and house,s were worth less than the mortgages that were used to buy them.

"booming economy in Europe"

Europe is doing terrible economically, our economy tracks the health of the S+P in the USA

s8n

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwcmAe12QKY

Mad_maxx

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

We need to work on protecting our economy from the world economy a bit. Also the uk.

Brexit is going to destroy our economy.

It ( brexit) will savage the beef industry but its far too reliant on the UK anyway

El_Duderino 09

Mad_maxx wrote: »

"booming economy in Europe"

Europe is doing terrible economically, our economy tracks the health of the S+P in the USA

Yeah Europe isn’t doing great as a whole. Germany is on the brink of recession technically but it’s not doing well in any case. Some parts of Europe are doing ok. But the eurozone is not booming as a whole.

El_Duderino 09

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Yeah Europe isn’t doing great as a whole. Germany is on the brink of recession technically but it’s not doing well in any case. Some parts of Europe are doing ok. But the eurozone is not booming as a whole.

Yeah but we also have very low inflation and unemployment rates that are lower than they have been in over a decade.

It's not just the Eurozone -- the global aconomy is decelerating, from Dehli to Detroit. Most developed and emerging economies are growing at a slower pace than was forecast this time last year. The UK is facing a real risk of recession.

Europe has systemic problems in addressing economic growth (weak monetary policy and ideologically-driven economic policy -- an almost pathological obsession with running surpluses), but lets not lose the run of ourselves. In a global context, Europe is generally in-line with a trend towards a global slow-down.

I see sheep

PhilOssophy wrote: »

Paddy loves boom and bust, politicians would rather give the pensioners and dole wasters a fiver a week than pay down some of our national debt or save money for times when our economy needs a cash boost.
But Paddy wouldn't have it any other way.

Paddy bailed out the banks who destroyed the economy.
But yes it's the pensioners and people out of work who are to blame of course.

EmmetSpiceland

I see sheep wrote: »

Paddy bailed out the banks who destroyed the economy.
But yes it's the pensioners and people out of work who are to blame of course.

Don’t forget the bond holders, they got “protected” too. Which, I believe, was on the advice of Peter Sutherland, who had “vested” interests in that.