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September 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 28-08-2019 1:57am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for September, 2019. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 13.1 deg C.

    2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during September.

    3. Predict the MIN temperature during September (see 2 above for overview).

    4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during September.

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during September.

    6. BONUS -- Predict the maximum wind gust (in knots) at any of the 25 locations that report daily as per reports on yesterday's weather on the met.ie website. No date or location (my brain needs recovery time after those summer bonus questions, thanks again to JPmarn for helping out).

    The deadline for on-time entries will be 0300h Sunday 1st of September. The late penalties will be 1 point per four hour (or portion) late entry for the first 36 hours (to 1500h 2nd) then 1 point per two hours (or portion) to 0300h 3rd and one point per hour after that.

    Good luck, or bonne chance if you prefer.


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen ______ 12.9 _ 23.1 _ 0.6 _ 90 _ 105 ____58 kts

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    Blizzard7______ 12.7 _ 22.0 _ -1.6c _ 130 _ 100____63kts


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,715 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal ______ 12.5 _ 21.1 _ -0.8 _ 115 _ 95 ____52 kts


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002 ______ 13.2 _ 22.8 _ 1.1 _ 100 _ 95 ____54 kts


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry______ 13.0_ 24.0_ 1.0_ 90 _ 110____60kts

    Round numbers all round


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn______ 13.0_ 23.8_ 1.2_ 115 _ 110____55kts


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels______ 12.9__24__1__89___90___53


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,114 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ______ 13.3 _ 24.3 _ -0.4 _ 94 _ 112 ____48 kts


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,746 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    joe public ______ 13.2 _ 24.5 _ 1.1 _ 88 _ 120 ____68 kts


  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 ______ 13.5 _ 23.5 _ -1.0 _ 115 _ 105 ____45 kts


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  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ______ 13.4 _ 21.8 _ -1.5 _ 85 _ 108 ____44 kts


  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3 ______ 13.2 _ 22. 5_ -1.2_ 95 _ 95 ____48 kts


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,764 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire ______ 13.5 _ 21.0 _ -0.9 _ 112 _ 92 ____62 kts


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    MTC __________ 14.0 _ 25.7 _ -1.0 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 63 kn

    NormaL _______ 13.1 _ 25.5 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 57 kn


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,565 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ____ 13.0 ___ 24.0 __ 0.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 70 kts


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner _______12.6_____23.6°_____0.6°_____116_____86_____56


  • Registered Users Posts: 318 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 13.3 ___ 22.6 ___ 0.0 ___ 80 ___ 110 ___ 53


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts______ 13.5 _ 22.9 _ 0.2 _ 91 _ 105 ____46 kts


  • Registered Users Posts: 351 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways _______ 13.5 _ 25.9 _ -2.0 _ 98 _ 99 ___ 59 kn


  • Registered Users Posts: 748 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    Adam240610 __13__22.1__-1.1__80_110_48kts

    Completely forgot about this whoops


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,997 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac______ 13.3 _ 24.1 _ 1.6 _ 102 _ 99 ____51 kts


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    JCXBXC ______ 13.9 _ 24.9 _ 0.6 _ 105 _ 95 ____48 kts


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    I am starting a wind gust watch this month for a bonus question. There will not be a post every day only when there is a significant high gust been reported as from the yesterday's weather page on met.ie. There seem to be some deep depressions in guidance for our direction in the next 16 days or so including a risk on some runs on the remnants of the now Cat 5 Hurricane Dorian coming our way. And if even the centre of the storm should head towards Iceland it would generate some high gusts especially in the north.

    So just for a start.
    35kt/65kmh at Finner Camp on the 1st.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for September 2019


    FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max gust (knots)

    M.T. Cranium ____________ 14.0 _ 25.7 _ -1.0 _ 080 _ 110 ____ 63

    JCX BXC ____ (-2) ________13.9 _ 24.9 _ +0.6 _ 105 _ 095 ____ 48

    waterways __ (-1) ________ 13.5 _ 25.9 _ -2.0 _ 098 _ 099 ____ 59

    Dasa29 _________________13.5 _ 23.5 _ -1.0 _ 115 _ 105 ____ 45

    mickger844posts _________ 13.5 _ 22.9 _ +0.2 _ 091 _ 105 ____ 46

    Rameire ________________ 13.5 _ 21.0 _ -0.9 _ 112 _ 092 ____ 62

    Tae laidir _______________ 13.4 _ 21.8 _ -1.5 _ 085 _ 108 ____ 44

    DOCARCH _______________13.3 _ 24.3 _ -0.4 _ 094 _ 112 ____ 48

    john mac ___ (-2) ________ 13.3 _ 24.1 _ +1.6 _ 102 _ 099 ____ 51

    Kindred Spirit ____________13.3 _ 22.6 __ 0.0 _ 080 _ 110 ____ 53


    ____ Con Sensus _________13.3 _ 23.3 _ -0.1 _ 095 _ 100 ____ 54


    Joe public _______________13.2 _ 24.5 _ +1.1 _ 088 _ 120 ____ 68

    Artane2002 _____________ 13.2 _ 22.8 _ +1.1 _ 100 _ 095 ____ 54

    Sunflower3 ______________13.2 _ 22.5 _ -1.2 _ 095 _ 095 ____ 48

    ____ NormaL ____________13.1 _ 25.5 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 57

    Pauldry ________________ 13.0 _ 24.0 _ +1.0 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 60

    Rikand _________________13.0 _ 24.0 __ 0.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 70

    Jpmarn ________________ 13.0 _ 23.8 _ +1.2 _ 115 _ 110 ____ 55

    Adam240610 __ (-2) _____ 13.0 _ 22.1 _ -1.1 _ 080 _ 110 ____ 48

    200motels ______________12.9 _ 24.0 _ +1.0 _ 089 _ 090 ____ 53

    sryanbruen _____________ 12.9 _ 23.1 _ +0.6 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 58

    Blizzard7 _______________ 12.7 _ 22.0 _ -1.6 _ 130 _ 100 ____ 63

    MrSkinner ______________ 12.6 _ 23.6 _ +0.6 _ 116 _ 086 ____ 56

    Bsal ___________________ 12.5 _ 21.1 _ -0.8 _ 115 _ 095 ____ 52


    ======================


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Max Gust now 41kts 76 kmh recorded at Malin Head on the 2nd.

    There were no other gusts quoted on yesterday's weather page on met.ie for that day as quoted gusts must be gale force or higher 34kt 62 kmh.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Max gust is now 50kts 93kmh recorded at Malin Head on the 4th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    After one week, IMT was 13.5 which is 0.6 deg below normal.

    MAX and MIN probably yet to come.

    PRC was 54% of normal, quite dry in the southeast to near normal in the north.

    SUN averaged 92% of normal (552/600).

    Max gust to date (thanks JPmarn) is 50 kts with contenders appearing mid-week.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Min recorded on the 8th is 4.4°C recorded in Moorepark Co. Cork. There is potential for Max to be recorded next weekend or into next week. Potential for the warmest weather ever for the ploughing in Co. Carlow next week.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Whats the highest ever Sept temperature? Think it was 26c in Pheonix Park a few years ago but is that the record?

    Certainly 20 plus on the cards....even in Sligo...eventually prob after the rest of country has it 3 days.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    pauldry wrote: »
    Whats the highest ever Sept temperature? Think it was 26c in Pheonix Park a few years ago but is that the record?

    Certainly 20 plus on the cards....even in Sligo...eventually prob after the rest of country has it 3 days.

    29.1c in Kildare on 1 Sep 1906.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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