European sales of new Diesel cars down to just 36%

unkel

Across Europe. According to the Financial Times

Linky

In 2015 they were still at 60%. And the above figure of 36% is for 2018. What will 2019 be like, further down to maybe just one in four cars? One in 6 cars next year?

Ireland is a bit behind the average decline, but will no doubt catch up. We all knew the game was up a few years ago, but it's happening faster than I thought it would.

George Dalton

The game is far from up. Diesel is still the best option for a lot of people.

Unfortunately people are like sheep. So a decade ago lots of people chose diesel even though it wasn’t the right choice for them. And now the opposite is happening, people are abandoning diesel when in reality they should stick with it as the best choice for their individual driving pattern.

Diesel still has its place, mainly for people outside of the major urban centres.

Azatadine

Yep, I drive 80 miles per day. Diesel all the way for me for the foreseeable future.

bbbbb

Looking at TEA03 here

https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=TEA03&PLanguage=0
http:/
Looks like things are heading back to 2007/08 levels
(Before the emissions regime change)

Toyotafanboi

I only got my first diesel last year, fairly pleased with it. Mrs also picked up her brand new diesel last week. Theres still nothing like it for a long commute, really. She commutes 200kms a day and I around 150. I was never a diesel fan, but going those kind of distances, there is a clear difference vs. petrol.

I welcome hybrids and EV's and will be glad to see the back of un necessary diesels for the health benefits that go with them but they are still useful in the right circumstance. We mustn't cut off our nose to spite our face.

L-M

A number of people who should be driving diesel (Whom listened to all the BS pub talk) and switched back to petrol are now regretting it in their pockets.

Just because diesel sales were huge and now dropping doesn’t mean that diesel is dead, and far from dead it is.

It’s now more to the point of there are more options, ie electric (Which funnily enough unless you’re doing a lot of mileage there is no real cost saving) , hyrbid and the traditional petrol and diesels.

Cities being densely populated taking a huge percentage of markets, it’s easily see the diesel market decline.

Diesel is dead, for those who shouldn’t have bought it in the first place.

unkel

Toyotafanboi wrote: »

She commutes 200kms a day and I around 150.

With those kind of commutes you bought brand new diesels - did you not consider EVs? You would have saved yourself 5 grand a year on fuel alone

97k km in total for both cars based on that commute including 10k km each socially

60mpg diesels at €1.30 for the diesel costs you €6k in diesel. On electricity at 15kWh/100km at 8c night rate electricity, this would have cost you €1k in electricity

Plus huge savings on maintenance and repair

George Dalton

Great post overall but this sentence sums the whole situation up perfectly:

Limerick man wrote: »

Diesel is dead, for those who shouldn’t have bought it in the first place.

unkel

George Dalton wrote: »

Diesel still has its place

For sure. These are new car sales. Many people can't afford a new car. So they will buy a second hand car, which is most likely a diesel. Also if you need to do massive distances regularly, diesels are the only option that makes financial sense. Or if you have to tow or need a 4WD vehicle.

But there is a lot more going on here than people who shouldn't have bought a diesel now going back to petrol. From 60% to 36% it's already a minority now. the percentage diesel this year is probably lower than it has ever been in the last 30-40 years and I expect it to go down to maybe 1 in 10 cars by 2025. Huge emissions fines starting next year imposed on all car manufacturers who want to sell cars in Europe if their average is above 95g CO2/km (diesels are pretty much all higher than that). Soon car makers won't be able to afford to sell diesels.

colm_mcm

Manufacturers have upped their game with their petrol offerings while at the same time jacked up the price of diesel options.

Steve

How small we motorists are and how hard are we hit...

I got a spin out on a berthing job in Dublin port about a year ago (brought in the ship that supplies Lidl every week) .. it was the best craic ever. Not posting details about it but at the end of it all I asked how much fuel was used...

From the entrance to Dublin port to the dock, the ship used about 350 litres of diesel / crude mix. The tug that pushed it onto the dock used about 200 litres of normal diesel. The operation took about 40 minutes. 2 ships later, and the refuel quota was over 500l for 2 hours work.

That's 2 hours of a 12 hour shift, and there's 2 of them operating 24/7

I make that out as a years driving for me every 3 hours.

Something is really wrong when we are being made out to be the bad guys here.

P.S. Don't get me started on trains ....

Harry Palmr

Diesel is caught in a multiple pincer movement - dervs bad rep thanks to fiddling the numbers, petrol cars are pretty economical these days, EVs obviously growing in number albeit slowly from zero. More broadly a generation is growing up in cities unable to afford a car so expensive is accommodation and many of them don't see the need anyway and as Ireland becomes ever more urban based that'll grow. Only a crazy (well off) person runs a car if they don't actually need one.

bazz26

Oh it's been a few months since we have had one to these threads.

Here are the stats from the SIMI todate compared to last year:

Passenger Cars By Engine Type

Rank Engine Type 2019 Units 2018 Units % Change 2019 % Share 2018 % Share
1 Diesel 48,817 61,975 −21.23% 46.30% 54.32%
2 Petrol 43,469 44,175 −1.60% 41.23% 38.72%
3 Petrol Electric 9,380 6,445 45.54% 8.90% 5.65%
4 Electric 2,688 912 194.74% 2.55% 0.80%


I'm not sure where the figures in the title came from but they don't paint the same sensationist picture.

Also lets not forget that we imported 100,000 used cars from the UK last year, the majority of them were diesel. New cars sales are down across the board but that doesn't tell the hole picture around buying habits suddenly changing. It just means people may have found better value in nearly new cars in the UK over brand new ones here.

BorneTobyWilde

55% of new cars sales in Norway are fully EV cars for year 2019

BorneTobyWilde

There are many ZERO Nox diesels available now too.

bazz26

That's ironic and there is a sense of hypocrisy in it too since Norway's economy depends mainly on the export of oil and gas.

unkel

bazz26 wrote: »

I'm not sure where the figures in the title came from

From the link to the FT article I posted? European sales of new cars in 2018? Was my simple thread title and my 3 line post so unclear and the article so poorly written you didn't get that?

bazz26

Sorry using the phone app so only seeing the link now.

unkel

Steve wrote: »

From the entrance to Dublin port to the dock, the ship used about 350 litres of diesel / crude mix.

The fuel used in international waters is often far worse than that. Horrific stuff. The biggest 20-30 ships in the world used to pollute more SOx than all the cars in the world combined. It's being worked on, there are major improvements. A bit off topic for this forum in general and this thread in particular though

unkel

unkel wrote: »

Across Europe. According to the Financial Times

Linky

In 2015 they were still at 60%. And the above figure of 36% is for 2018. What will 2019 be like, further down to maybe just one in four cars? One in 6 cars next year?

Ireland is a bit behind the average decline, but will no doubt catch up. We all knew the game was up a few years ago, but it's happening faster than I thought it would.

Diesel is still cheaper by about 8-10 c at the pumps per litre- running costs of an old diesel are still a lot cheaper than an old petrol for an awful lot of cars.

If you want to kill diesel, you'll need to address the price @ the pumps- otherwise, it has a longer life than you think.

Mike9832

unkel wrote: »

With those kind of commutes you bought brand new diesels - did you not consider EVs? You would have saved yourself 5 grand a year on fuel alone

97k km in total for both cars based on that commute including 10k km each socially

60mpg diesels at €1.30 for the diesel costs you €6k in diesel. On electricity at 15kWh/100km at 8c night rate electricity, this would have cost you €1k in electricity

Plus huge savings on maintenance and repair

I don't what car he/she got brand new, but do know a friend of mine got a diesel 192 Kona for 21,000 few weeks ago, with free 5 year servicing and low interest rate

He went in looking at Kona EV too , but not a cent off list price of €38,000, no free servicing and no low interest rate, it was a horrible deal

Diesel Kona was well over €20,000 cheaper when everything was included, he went with that.

Also

A 200km a day requires a €40,000 EV

Steve

unkel wrote: »

The fuel used in international waters is often far worse than that. Horrific stuff. The biggest 20-30 ships in the world used to pollute more SOx than all the cars in the world combined. It's being worked on, there are major improvements. A bit off topic for this forum in general and this thread in particular though

NP, I'm not trying to go off topic, however I think it's a valid point that the reason for the decline in diesel cars is not due to their efficiency, improved emissions standards, and all round better value, but rather a political points scoring game - and a future plan by government to tax them into oblivion. Point I was making was that to tax the fuel itself would shoot the economy in the foot as there are too many non private motorists that rely on it.

Personally, I think I'll hang on to my TDi for as long as I can.

unkel

Steve wrote: »

the decline in diesel cars is not due to their efficiency, improved emissions standards, and all round better value, but rather a political points scoring game - and a future plan by government to tax them into oblivion..

Diesel is more expensive to produce than petrol yet, because it is subsidised in Ireland, it is cheaper at the pumps. And cheaper in motor tax. No doubt this will change soon. But the driver is not our government, it's the EU and the system of emissions fines coming up

And it seems people are finally getting to grips with the reality of climate change and the urgent action we need to take on this if we don't want this world to be fecked up for our children and grand children. Third heatwave in the Netherlands this year today. Since records began hundreds of years ago there have been 4 of those years. The last ones in 2006, 2018 and 2019. Not a coincidence.

unkel

Mike9832 wrote: »

A 200km a day requires a €40,000 EV

Yes that is the case. Far too expensive for a small crossover, albeit a hot hatch fast one with a 450km range

Supply of EVs is low, demand is high. In the USA you can not get a Kona EV for under full RRP plus USD 5,000 :eek:

More and more companies have free work charging for their employees though. Where I work, a small business park with small to medium size companies, total of maybe 100 car parking spaces, this time last year there were no EV chargers. Now there are 3. And then you could do a 200km commute in a €9k 141 Nissan Leaf.

Steve

unkel wrote: »

Diesel is more expensive to produce than petrol

Automotive petrol is a by product (waste) from processing crude for ships and diesel for industry. So yes, the waste (petrol) is deemed 'cheaper' to produce.

yet, because it is subsidised in Ireland, it is cheaper at the pumps. And cheaper in motor tax. No doubt this will change soon. But the driver is not our government, it's the EU and the system of emissions fines coming up

Can't argue with that as I don't know the facts behind it.

And it seems people are finally getting to grips with the reality of climate change and the urgent action we need to take on this if we don't want this world to be fecked up for our children and grand children. Third heatwave in the Netherlands this year today. Since records began hundreds of years ago there have been 4 of those years. The last ones in 2006, 2018 and 2019. Not a coincidence.

Now who's going off topic..

Steve

unkel wrote: »

More and more companies have free work charging for their employees though. Where I work, a small business park with small to medium size companies, total of maybe 100 car parking spaces, this time last year there were no EV chargers. Now there are 3. And then you could do a 200km commute in a €9k 141 Nissan Leaf.

So, in 11 years time , when we have a 'million' EV's on the road, do you think (given the governments forecast to roll them out) that 6 charge points will be enough?

I think I'll be sticking with my diesel.

unkel

Steve wrote: »

So, in 11 years time , when we have a 'million' EV's on the road, do you think (given the governments forecast to roll them out) that 6 charge points will be enough?

I'm not sure what your point is. We won't have a million EVs on the road by 2030.

What do you mean by "6 charge points will be enough?"

There are already over 1000 charge points in this country. But the infrastructure is outdated and poor (because it is run by the state)

In more advanced countries like Norway and the Netherlands, there is already enough fast charging capability for charging a vast amount of EVs and this is increasing rapidly, paid for by private money, not tax payers money like in Ireland.

Mate bought an EV over in NL recently and he isn't even bothered about getting home charging. Fast chargers everywhere and his car can charge at up to 250kW (basically giving him 400km range for 15 minutes of charging - no need to go inside to queue and pay). Nearly all big companies have free work charging over there. Again Ireland is a few years behind, but it's coming

A lot of people here in Ireland are very lucky that they have a driveway and that we have super cheap night rate electricity. Pretty much non existent for most people in many other countries. My car is charged purely at home and I pay 1c/km for charging it, but I can also charge the car for free with zero emissions from my 14 solar panels.

selectamatic

It will all naturally balance out
(new diesel sales will drop) as long as credible alternatives continue to come on stream. hybrids, efficient petrols more affordable ev's with better ranges etc. soon these will be commonplace as long as they are easy enough to buy and they suit the person.

The 2008 tax restructuring basically booted people into diesels you'd have been mad not to buy one if your driving habits were remotely suitable and you were getting a new car especially in the family saloon and 7 seater segments which were the big dogs at the time.

Take the bog standard avensis for example in 2009 suddenly the cheapo 1.6vvti was gone and dealerships were awash with 2.0d4d's that were cheaper to buy and cheaper to tax than ever before. It would have been a mission for Johnny and Mary to get a 1.6valvematic one so naturally they got the diesel.

This scene was replicated across the board regardless of marque.

The government and Simi as good as made this mess because they needed more new car sales during the downturn.

If they take any overly drastic measures again they'll just end up making another mess. Either the infrastructure won't be able to keep up with growth or the tax take will plummet. So they have to be careful.

Also while countries like the Netherlands are making leaps in the EV game they are and have been investing massively in Brazil over the last 10 years so they're just doing their bit to kill the planet in a less obvious way

road_high

Deleted User wrote: »

Diesel is still cheaper by about 8-10 c at the pumps per litre- running costs of an old diesel are still a lot cheaper than an old petrol for an awful lot of cars.

If you want to kill diesel, you'll need to address the price @ the pumps- otherwise, it has a longer life than you think.

Yes reduce the duty on petrol to match diesel but sure as night follows day the robbing bastards will do the exact opposite. Buoyed on the do gooder feel good lobby.

glomar

And it seems people are finally getting to grips with the reality of climate change and the urgent action we need to take on this if we don't want this world to be fecked up for our children and grand children. Third heatwave in the Netherlands this year today. Since records began hundreds of years ago there have been 4 of those years. The last ones in 2006, 2018 and 2019. Not a coincidence.[/QUOTE]

Strongly convinced we are ****ed planet-wise .. the heatwaves have been caused by 100 years of emissions .. so its not going to go away in the forseeable future i am afraid

unkel

glomar wrote: »

Strongly convinced we are ****ed planet-wise .. the heatwaves have been caused by 100 years of emissions .. so its not going to go away in the forseeable future i am afraid

Indeed. Unless we (worldwide) take drastic action almost totally de-carbonising our energy use over the next few decades. That's a very tall task, but not impossible. And not costing absurd levels of money. Ireland can move to 100% renewable electricity (at today's usage levels) for the cost of just 2-3 children's hospitals.

colm_mcm

Is that the cost of 2-3 regular children’s hospitals, or ones that go over budget to multiples of that?

Markcheese

colm_mcm wrote: »

Is that the cost of 2-3 regular children’s hospitals, or ones that go over budget to multiples of that?

This is going to become the new unit for large state scale spending in Ireland .. An underground train line - 2 children's hospitals
A Luas line - half a children's hospital,
I've no idea how many children's hospitals a year our social welfare budget is...

Phileas Frog

bazz26 wrote: »

Oh it's been a few months since we have had one to these threads.

Here are the stats from the SIMI todate compared to last year:

Passenger Cars By Engine Type

Rank Engine Type 2019 Units 2018 Units % Change 2019 % Share 2018 % Share
1 Diesel 48,817 61,975 −21.23% 46.30% 54.32%
2 Petrol 43,469 44,175 −1.60% 41.23% 38.72%
3 Petrol Electric 9,380 6,445 45.54% 8.90% 5.65%
4 Electric 2,688 912 194.74% 2.55% 0.80%


I'm not sure where the figures in the title came from but they don't paint the same sensationist picture.

Also lets not forget that we imported 100,000 used cars from the UK last year, the majority of them were diesel. New cars sales are down across the board but that doesn't tell the hole picture around buying habits suddenly changing. It just means people may have found better value in nearly new cars in the UK over brand new ones here.

The first two words in the OP are very important, you seem to have missed them...

Cee-Jay-Cee

Phileas Frog wrote: »

The first two words in the OP are very important, you seem to have missed them...

And you seem to have missed where he acknowledged this saying he was on his phone and missed the link in the OP.

i57dwun4yb1pt8

if you want to stop climate change , ( if indeed it is caused by man )
go and kill the leaders of all the major countrys , their buddies and friends , and all the leading industrialists , then change the whole 'im all right jack' mindset of money over the future of the world.

cos buying an EV wont make a blind bit of difference

zilog_jones

Steve wrote: »

Point I was making was that to tax the fuel itself would shoot the economy in the foot as there are too many non private motorists that rely on it.

Non-private motorists may not have to pay that tax (Diesel Rebate Scheme, etc.), and taxation of diesel for non-road use is entirely different. Diesel powered ships and rail transport much larger quantities of people or goods than private passenger cars, they're not the problem here. Heavy fuel oil/bunker oil is a problem but it is being phased out.

Phileas Frog

Cee-Jay-Cee wrote: »

And you seem to have missed where he acknowledged this saying he was on his phone and missed the link in the OP.

The link isn't anywhere near the first two words ;-)

Lantus

unkel wrote: »

With those kind of commutes you bought brand new diesels - did you not consider EVs? You would have saved yourself 5 grand a year on fuel alone

97k km in total for both cars based on that commute including 10k km each socially

60mpg diesels at €1.30 for the diesel costs you €6k in diesel. On electricity at 15kWh/100km at 8c night rate electricity, this would have cost you €1k in electricity

Plus huge savings on maintenance and repair

Annual elec I'd say would be about 500 and 700 on those km's. But an ev would cost40k plus interest (say 3k). One each is 86k. If you had a budget of 17k per car then you need to spend an extra 26k per car. At 3k fuel per year you will save money after owning the EV 7 or 8 years..

If you normal car spend is 35k plus then its a compelling financial argument. If its circa 20k or less then you will struggle to make the figures work.

Lantus

unkel wrote: »

With those kind of commutes you bought brand new diesels - did you not consider EVs? You would have saved yourself 5 grand a year on fuel alone

97k km in total for both cars based on that commute including 10k km each socially

60mpg diesels at €1.30 for the diesel costs you €6k in diesel. On electricity at 15kWh/100km at 8c night rate electricity, this would have cost you €1k in electricity

Plus huge savings on maintenance and repair

Annual elec I'd say would be about 500 and 700 on those km's. But an ev would cost40k plus interest (say 3k). One each is 86k. If you had a budget of 17k per car then you need to spend an extra 26k per car. At 3k fuel per year you will save money after owning the EV 7 or 8 years..

If you normal car spend is 35k plus then its a compelling financial argument. If its circa 20k or less then you will struggle to make the figures work.

Henry Ford III

colm_mcm wrote: »

Manufacturers have upped their game with their petrol offerings while at the same time jacked up the price of diesel options.

VRT went up on new diesels by 1% also I think.

listermint

Mike9832 wrote: »

I don't what car he/she got brand new, but do know a friend of mine got a diesel 192 Kona for 21,000 few weeks ago, with free 5 year servicing and low interest rate

He went in looking at Kona EV too , but not a cent off list price of €38,000, no free servicing and no low interest rate, it was a horrible deal

Diesel Kona was well over €20,000 cheaper when everything was included, he went with that.

Also

A 200km a day requires a €40,000 EV

Evidently they have not counted Fuel and Depreciation into that price. Did they get a guaranteed buy back price on it ? Because I think alot of folks are in for a solid shock. There will be acres of diesels sitting up in fields. If your not aware yourself you may not know their are acres of fields from various manufactures up and down dublin county and kildare of vehicles returned from PCP. Cant shift them.

Diesels will accelerate that.

Mike9832

listermint wrote: »

Evidently they have not counted Fuel and Depreciation into that price. Did they get a guaranteed buy back price on it ? Because I think alot of folks are in for a solid shock. There will be acres of diesels sitting up in fields. If your not aware yourself you may not know their are acres of fields from various manufactures up and down dublin county and kildare of vehicles returned from PCP. Cant shift them.

Diesels will accelerate that.

Not with a Kona lol

Depreciation was much worse on the Kona EV based on gmfv

Diesel for €21,000 had gmfv of €8,500

EV for €38,000 had gmfv of €12,000 lol

€12,000!

They wanted €13,000 cash deposit, €500 a month for 3 years and €12,000 ballon payment at the end, no free servicing, no low interest rate.

Kona diesel was €230 a month

colm_mcm

Henry Ford III wrote: »

VRT went up on new diesels by 1% also I think.

Don’t think so. Think it’s just based on emissions and the bands are the same.

listermint

Mike9832 wrote: »

Not with a Kona lol

Depreciation was much worse on the Kona EV based on gmfv

Diesel for €21,000 had gmfv of €8,500

EV for €38,000 had gmfv of €12,000 lol

€12,000!

They wanted €13,000 cash deposit, €500 a month for 3 years and €12,000 ballon payment at the end, no free servicing, no low interest rate.

Kona diesel was €230 a month

Why would you sell it back to the dealer at that price?

Thats quite obviously a ludicrous price on both vehicles. So you made my point for me.

Cheers

Mike9832

listermint wrote: »

Why would you sell it back to the dealer at that price?

Thats quite obviously a ludicrous price on both vehicles. So you made my point for me.

Cheers

What point?

That's what Hyundai are offering

Henry Ford III

colm_mcm wrote: »

Don’t think so. Think it’s just based on emissions and the bands are the same.

https://www.rte.ie/news/budget-2019/2018/1009/1002039-diesel-cars-hit-with-1-vrt-surcharge/

Lantus

Mike9832 wrote: »

Not with a Kona lol

Depreciation was much worse on the Kona EV based on gmfv

Diesel for €21,000 had gmfv of €8,500

EV for €38,000 had gmfv of €12,000 lol

€12,000!

They wanted €13,000 cash deposit, €500 a month for 3 years and €12,000 ballon payment at the end, no free servicing, no low interest rate.

Kona diesel was €230 a month

Nearly all evs have much lower gmfv which in part was back from when Nissan leaf equity was zero a few years back and manufacturers altered the ratios. Today EV 2nd hand sales are really strong and leaf sale prices are very strong.

Your just paying off more up front on the EV which if affordable is great.

Ice kona is very cheap and I wouldn't worry about diesel sales any time soon. The swing will settle and I know a few friends that have bought diesels as run abouts recently and they love them.

davo2001

Lantus wrote: »

Annual elec I'd say would be about 500 and 700 on those km's. But an ev would cost40k plus interest (say 3k). One each is 86k. If you had a budget of 17k per car then you need to spend an extra 26k per car. At 3k fuel per year you will save money after owning the EV 7 or 8 years..

If you normal car spend is 35k plus then its a compelling financial argument. If its circa 20k or less then you will struggle to make the figures work.

By which time the battery will need to be replaced!

unkel

Lantus wrote: »

Annual elec I'd say would be about 500 and 700 on those km's. But an ev would cost40k

Annual electric about €1k (I showed you the calculation). My EV cost 25k brand new. He bought brand new diesel cars. He didn't say which they are but quite possibly similar cost? When I bought my car, a reasonably specced automatic diesel Skoda Octavia cost about the same.

Depreciation on an EV is far lower than on a diesel, we have already discussed immense savings on fuel and savings on maintenance. Some small fry that there is still public charging that is free, a lot of people get free work charging and you get the cheapest motortax, up to 75% discount on tolls, €600 to install a home charger, etc.

And EV batteries do not need replacing. When the car dies an economic death, say at 15 years of age, the battery will be taken out and used for another 15 or so years as grid storage

keano25

How are they going to get rid of diesels?

Tax us out of it? Ban diesel cars completely?

In comparison to aeroplanes etc I find it hard to believe the Irish diesel drivers are having that big an effect on world emissions..