Where do you see Irish farming in 5 years time?

whelan2

Seems to be alot of gloom around farming at the moment. Certainly wouldnt be overly encouraging my kids into a farming career. Will land be left idle. Everyone can't go into dairyying, can they? Beef farmers can't continue farming at a loss.What do you think the future holds?

gozunda

whelan2 wrote: »

Seems to be alot of gloom around farming at the moment. Certainly wouldnt be overly encouraging my kids into a farming career. Will land be left idle. Everyone can't go into dairyying, can they? Beef farmers can't continue farming at a loss.What do you think the future holds?

As long as we have politicians selling out and signing up to the importation of beef produced in S.America etc all the while supposedly pushing a 'green' low greenhouse gas emissions agenda - we are dealing with fukwits who to use a bad pun - cant see the cattle for the trees.

There will always be a need for food production. And food will only get dearer in the long run. That said - It's likley that marginal land will most likley switched to alternative uses such as forestry considering that is going to be a much bigger area for investment and the trading of carbon credits.

lalababa

It will probably be much the same save a 10-15% increase in dairy and a 15-20% decrease in beef-inclusive of a 20-30% decrease in sucklers.

patsy_mccabe

Sometimes I think you got to just step back and look at things with a calm head. You'll hear economists talk about the fundamentals of any market. World population is 7.5 billion and set to increase to 11 billion. We have the lowest production costs and carbon footprint for beef and milk in Europe.

I also think that most will slowly come around to the fact that a suistainable approach to food production is needed. That will mean more organic fertiliser (from cows, pigs, sheep etc) and less usage of herbicides and insecticides, in so far as that is possible, while still keeping up food production.

mahoney_j

One thing for sure acceleration in farm sizes is going to get faster ,suckler farm and small beef farms look like been wiped out and big scale farm/factory /contract feedlots will be the norm .dairy going same with smaller units been slowly squeezed out.wonder what the traditional family farm will look like in 10 years

whelan2

I suppose brexit is another major worry

visatorro

Dunno but if a boom price of 20k plus an acre happened again you'd have to seriously think about it.

Mad_maxx

Land prices will be 30% cheaper on average

Land rent prices will drop sharply following the large exit from drystock farmers, many won't choose forestry so much more land available for dairying

Nekarsulm

I read a book once about the farming downturn in the UK , in the early 1930's.
It was called "On the smell of an oily rag" and painted a picture of large farms and estates lying virtually idle due to poor farming prices.
If we learn anything, its that things are cyclical.
We are at the start of a downturn in farming, but there will come an up turn again.
The trick is to know if its a long or short cycle, and hope that it dosen't take a world war to kick start the recovery.

Dinzee Conlee

Probably an increase in forestry in places with poor ground.
Hard to know what might happen in places where off farm jobs are less accessible - most likely farm sizes increase, some lads will still farm away renting grand from others.
I think some people aren’t into planting and would prefer places to be farmed, even if by someone else...

Where off farm jobs can be found, prob a combination of more ground let, but also I things might continue as is in that small farms are maintained as part-time/hobby enterprises (or whatever you want to call them...)

I don’t see a huge reduction in rent or land - purely cos farmers have no sense when it comes to renting or buying land...

Mad_maxx

Dinzee Conlee wrote: »

Probably an increase in forestry in places with poor ground.
Hard to know what might happen in places where off farm jobs are less accessible - most likely farm sizes increase, some lads will still farm away renting grand from others.
I think some people aren’t into planting and would prefer places to be farmed, even if by someone else...

Where off farm jobs can be found, prob a combination of more ground let, but also I things might continue as is in that small farms are maintained as part-time/hobby enterprises (or whatever you want to call them...)

I don’t see a huge reduction in rent or land - purely cos farmers have no sense when it comes to renting or buying land...

Reductions in direct payments will soften the cough of those willing to pay anything for land

Buford T. Justice XIX

Dinzee Conlee wrote: »

Probably an increase in forestry in places with poor ground.
Hard to know what might happen in places where off farm jobs are less accessible - most likely farm sizes increase, some lads will still farm away renting grand from others.
I think some people aren’t into planting and would prefer places to be farmed, even if by someone else...

Where off farm jobs can be found, prob a combination of more ground let, but also I things might continue as is in that small farms are maintained as part-time/hobby enterprises (or whatever you want to call them...)

I don’t see a huge reduction in rent or land - purely cos farmers have no sense when it comes to renting or buying land...

Just on forestry, where is the end use for all this timber when it comes time to harvest?

The premium is nice while it lasts but eventually a use will have to be found for the timber.

Dinzee Conlee

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Reductions in direct payments will soften the cough of those willing to pay anything for land

True - but I suspect we all would have said the same thing 5 years ago, and here we are...

Not sure what will happen the the SFP, and how soon that’ll reduce dramatically...

I could be very wrong, I just don’t see the status quo changing for a good while. And not sure what the catalyst for major change will be - it was looking like it might have been the beef plan there for a while, but I don’t think so anymore...

Dinzee Conlee

Buford T. Justice VI wrote: »

Just on forestry, where is the end use for all this timber when it comes time to harvest?

The premium is nice while it lasts but eventually a use will have to be found for the timber.

I think they are trying to push more native/hardwood forests now, so I don’t know if the person planting would see any major return from the actual timber? Maybe a bit at thinning, but not much I suspect?

Say my name

Buford T. Justice VI wrote: »

Just on forestry, where is the end use for all this timber when it comes time to harvest?

The premium is nice while it lasts but eventually a use will have to be found for the timber.

Going forward!! ( forgive me)

I'd say with the increased demand for biomass from the continuing reduction in use of fossil fuels for heating systems both industrial and domestic, it won't be a problem.
There's even the possible bio plastic market where it could be used.

Demand won't be a problem but ensuring a fair price is passed back might.


You don't think the council's and iarnrod eireann were cutting all those trees lately for the good of their health?

older by the day

I think around here, it will be the shortage of young people taking over farms. A lot of them has seem 7day hardship on the bigger dairy farms and would not chose it. Plus the likes of mechanics and repair people are getting scarce

Dakota Dan

Dinzee Conlee wrote: »

I think they are trying to push more native/hardwood forests now, so I don’t know if the person planting would see any major return from the actual timber? Maybe a bit at thinning, but not much I suspect?

They want to shut down the economy nothing whatsoever to do with climate. They’re ramping it up big time this year.

yosemitesam1

Say my name wrote: »

Going forward!! ( forgive me)

I'd say with the increased demand for biomass from the continuing reduction in use of fossil fuels for heating systems both industrial and domestic, it won't be a problem.
There's even the possible bio plastic market where it could be used.

Demand won't be a problem but ensuring a fair price is passed back might.


You don't think the council's and iarnrod eireann were cutting all those trees lately for the good of their health?

Harvesting timber for burning is lucky to break even on harvest+transport costs, if replanting is needed also I doubt it would be viable at all

Buford T. Justice XIX

Say my name wrote: »

Going forward!! ( forgive me)

I'd say with the increased demand for biomass from the continuing reduction in use of fossil fuels for heating systems both industrial and domestic, it won't be a problem.
There's even the possible bio plastic market where it could be used.

Demand won't be a problem but ensuring a fair price is passed back might.


You don't think the council's and iarnrod eireann were cutting all those trees lately for the good of their health?

That's the key, I think.

I see it every day now, more and more sectors are being created down the line from farming that act only as revenue leeches, for want of a better phrase.

Every sector will benefit from forestry, bar the land owner. Firstly, the land is devalued to forestry price, then the thinnings are supposed to have a return but mostly seems to break even at best. You're a long way into the crop life cycle before your investment starts to turn positive and there's loads of contracting out work for thinning and pruning before that.

Then you come to harvest and you seem to think that firewood is going to make a big enough return to justify the investment? Now, maybe there's some master plan out there to have a large return on the timber but, tbh, I haven't seen it.

All I can think of happening is the increase in forestry is being used as a carbon store for the rest of the economy and it's expected to just leave the timber in situ because it will cost more to harvest than the timber is worth?

Say my name

Buford T. Justice VI wrote: »

That's the key, I think.

I see it every day now, more and more sectors are being created down the line from farming that act only as revenue leeches, for want of a better phrase.

Every sector will benefit from forestry, bar the land owner. Firstly, the land is devalued to forestry price, then the thinnings are supposed to have a return but mostly seems to break even at best. You're a long way into the crop life cycle before your investment starts to turn positive and there's loads of contracting out work for thinning and pruning before that.

Then you come to harvest and you seem to think that firewood is going to make a big enough return to justify the investment? Now, maybe there's some master plan out there to have a large return on the timber but, tbh, I haven't seen it.

All I can think of happening is the increase in forestry is being used as a carbon store for the rest of the economy and it's expected to just leave the timber in situ because it will cost more to harvest than the timber is worth?

All I can think of a reply to that is co-op.
From googling there's a timber co-op in cork.
Not sure how it works in practice and if the members put the time, finance and labour in?

kevthegaff

What I could see is a carbon credit system for farmers, so you see a dairy farmer buying land up the country to plant with trees to offset his herds emissions. Hedgegrow, wildlife will be pushed(after being eliminated over the last 20yearsðŸ˜႒). Testing of watercourses and soil will become compulsory adding more costs. As farmers begin to get older, EU policy will even push more incentives at young farmers to no avail as big scale farms will have no competition

kevthegaff

Basically the reverse of government policy over the last 20years. But I think its too late

Birdnuts

The new CAP will play a big part in shaping this - hopefully it will be a fairer more sustainable one that protects our smaller family farms and rural environment.

Cattlepen

The government are not pushing forestry for our good. They will get the benefit of the carbon credits which by the way have tripled in values worldwide over the last decade. It will also take land for agricultural production out of the game for a generation or two and break a farming families link with farming altogether thus reducing the need for farm subsidies altogether. Not everyone will go for it but a large percentage will because of their age demographic

Capercaillie

Birdnuts wrote: »

The new CAP will play a big part in shaping this - hopefully it will be a fairer more sustainable one that protects our smaller family farms and rural environment.

Lobbying groups generally gut CAP so at the small lad and especially environment gets crushed.

epfff

Capercaillie wrote: »

Birdnuts wrote: »

The new CAP will play a big part in shaping this - hopefully it will be a fairer more sustainable one that protects our smaller family farms and rural environment.

Lobbying groups generally gut CAP so at the small lad and especially environment gets crushed.

Hopefully BP will wake up ifa but fearful the ifa will be happy to push through a deal for big guys

patsy_mccabe

It wasn't that long ago when world leaders got together to discuss the number one priority - ending world hunger. It's ironic that the people that the people that brought about that solution are now being blamed for the latest issue , climate change.

_Brian

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

It wasn't that long ago when world leaders got together to discuss the number one priority - ending world hunger. It's ironic that the people that the people that brought about that solution are now being blamed for the latest issue , climate change.

Lots of hungry people on the world, even some on Ireland.

What has changed is it’s more fashionable for groups to talk about environmental issues and having a scapegoat is convenient, even more convenient is having an industry to blame that doesn’t encroach on their €10 Ryanair jaunts for boozy weekends.

Gawddawggonnit

_Brian wrote: »

Lots of hungry people on the world, even some on Ireland.

What has changed is it’s more fashionable for groups to talk about environmental issues and having a scapegoat is convenient, even more convenient is having an industry to blame that doesn’t encroach on their €10 Ryanair jaunts for boozy weekends.

Money cures hunger and poverty...

There’ll be no real change in farming in the next five years. Same shyte, different week/month/year is all.
Poor beef and cereal prices now, poor x prices next year etc etc.

I would totally forbid any child of mine to go farming. Absolutely and totally forbidden!!!

_Brian

I expect in 5 years direct payments may be much smaller for everyone and any remaining will be desperately tied to greening measures and herd reductions.

Beef farming will continue to migrate towards feed lot farming with essentially no margin for full time family beef operations as we see today. As is the current trend part time and bachelor run beef enterprises will limp along surviving on lower and lower margins including working at a loss.

Dairy is harder to make. I’d expect flat prices but increasing costs will continue to snuff out “small” producers but with erosion those being pushed out will be bigger and bigger.

Maybe there will be some good broad lead native planting scheme but I think that’s a pipe dream.

Guy I spoke to recently suggested a scheme where the government owned the clear fell but it was paid to farmers for the lifetime of the trees rather than just 15years, he thought this would attract more land into proper forestry.

Currently only the forestry companies and those felling and transporting are making money from forestry, again the farmer is getting a token payment in comparison, yet his land is lost to forestry forever.

_Brian

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

Money cures hunger and poverty...

There’ll be no real change in farming in the next five years. Same shyte, different week/month/year is all.
Poor beef and cereal prices now, poor x prices next year etc etc.

I would totally forbid any child of mine to go farming. Absolutely and totally forbidden!!!

If money cures hungry people there wouldn’t be hunger.

There needs to be a will In society to do something and that’s not there.

patsy_mccabe

I mean real hunger. When's the last time someone starved to death in Ireland? Even the traveller community now has issues with obesity.

Gawddawggonnit

_Brian wrote: »

I expect in 5 years direct payments may be much smaller for everyone and any remaining will be desperately tied to greening measures and herd reductions.

Beef farming will continue to migrate towards feed lot farming with essentially no margin for full time family beef operations as we see today. As is the current trend part time and bachelor run beef enterprises will limp along surviving on lower and lower margins including working at a loss.

Dairy is harder to make. I’d expect flat prices but increasing costs will continue to snuff out “small” producers but with erosion those being pushed out will be bigger and bigger.

Maybe there will be some good broad lead native planting scheme but I think that’s a pipe dream.

Guy I spoke to recently suggested a scheme where the government owned the clear fell but it was paid to farmers for the lifetime of the trees rather than just 15years, he thought this would attract more land into proper forestry.

Currently only the forestry companies and those felling and transporting are making money from forestry, again the farmer is getting a token payment in comparison, yet his land is lost to forestry forever.

I detest that word ‘Forestry’.
Ireland’s idea of a ‘forest’ is a wasteland of pines devoid of any wildlife...


Cavan, Leitrim (etc) are to be planted to ‘Forestry’ to enable the expansion of the celtic cow. Beef needs to be sacrificed to support the cause also.
The writing is on the wall.

_Brian

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

I mean real hunger. When's the last time someone starved to death in Ireland? Even the traveller community now has issues with obesity.

Lots of kids go to school hungry.
The measure of hunger shouldn’t be death, that’s a bit extreme.

_Brian

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

I detest that word ‘Forestry’.
Ireland’s idea of a ‘forest’ is a wasteland of pines devoid of any wildlife...


Cavan, Leitrim (etc) are to be planted to ‘Forestry’ to enable the expansion of the celtic cow. Beef needs to be sacrificed to support the cause also.
The writing is on the wall.

Your preaching to the converted here regarding pine plantations. I wouldn’t see another cent paid on the stuff.

In comparison a native broad leaf forest is a place of beauty and teeming with life.

Gawddawggonnit

_Brian wrote: »

If money cures hungry people there wouldn’t be hunger.

There needs to be a will In society to do something and that’s not there.

How many on $5/day?
Would they be hungry on $100/day?

The farmers of this world are already producing enough food to feed 10bln people...

Gawddawggonnit

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

I mean real hunger. When's the last time someone starved to death in Ireland? Even the traveller community now has issues with obesity.

Bobby Sands?

MickeyShtyles

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

Bobby Sands?

That wasn’t the Republic.....

Gawddawggonnit

MickeyShtyles wrote: »

That wasn’t the Republic.....

I think that Mr.Sands wouldn’t agree.

148multi

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

It wasn't that long ago when world leaders got together to discuss the number one priority - ending world hunger. It's ironic that the people that the people that brought about that solution are now being blamed for the latest issue , climate change.

I think most of the world hunger is a side effect of war, with the US, France, Germany the biggest beneficiary's of selling arms, don't think it will ever be eleminated, only need to look at Yemen, it's war crimes by contract.

_Brian

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

How many on $5/day?
Would they be hungry on $100/day?

The farmers of this world are already producing enough food to feed 10bln people...

Yep, like o said, there isn’t the will within society as a whole to ensure everyone is fed. It’s not about money or enough food, there just isn’t the collective will to ensure it’s done.

kevthegaff

90 percent of kids that go to school hungry because their parents are junkies,alcoholics or gamblers. Schools in disadvantaged areas are feeding the kids very well these days. Demographic is the issue when it comes to hunger. Certain areas of the world are really at a disadvantage

toleratethis

On the forestry point, I went to an open day this Summer regarding the Native Woodland Scheme, on the farm of a (now elderly, with no interested successor) man I know. Having a block of land in an awkward location the scheme was something I wanted to flesh out a bit. All the benefits were gone through, climate change, biodiversity and so forth, all very interesting. The 15 year premium etc.

Thinking ahead, at question time I started asking about possible income streams from the woodland after the 15 year (it doesn't be long going) premium ended, given that as other posters say your land is then in forestry and unless you pay the €€€'s back, that's that.

I got quite the passive aggressive response, premiums been paid, that's the scheme, grumble grumble. Not to be deterred, I made further advances which yielded responses such there (very soft) may be some timber of interest to furniture makers, setting up apiarys in woodlands, and the "neighbourwood" scheme which would open your woodland to the public.

To my mind it's a dead end scheme, which may indeed suit some down to the ground. However, if you have, or have any chance of a successor, or indeed if there's a few miles left in yourself I'd think long and hard before signing up.

I tend to agree on the comment of things being cyclical. Don't heed Teagasc or ministers much, and cut your cloth to suit your measure. All farms are individual, and there are different management systems out there.

Oh yeah, measure twice, cut once!

Mad_maxx

kevthegaff wrote: »

90 percent of kids that go to school hungry because their parents are junkies,alcoholics or gamblers. Schools in disadvantaged areas are feeding the kids very well these days. Demographic is the issue when it comes to hunger. Certain areas of the world are really at a disadvantage

Mother in law is an SNA in a school in a disadvantaged part of Limerick city, the kids want for nothing, stories you hear about parents would shock you

I says

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Mother in law is an SNA in a school in a disadvantaged part of Limerick city, the kids want for nothing, stories you hear about parents would shock you

Ah the entitled generation happening everywhere not just limerick

einn32

I can't see much difference in 5 years. Weather will probably be the biggest factor going forward. We've had some extreme weather events the last few years (extreme for Ireland). If we got another drought or extreme snowfall it would be tough to get over financially for some.

freedominacup

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Mother in law is an SNA in a school in a disadvantaged part of Limerick city, the kids want for nothing, stories you hear about parents would shock you

Kids in areas like that wanting for nothing in school terms is some of the best money any government can spend. Every one of those kids that makes it through to the end of the school system is far less likely to be a long term draw on the state.

epfff

freedominacup wrote: »

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Mother in law is an SNA in a school in a disadvantaged part of Limerick city, the kids want for nothing, stories you hear about parents would shock you

Kids in areas like that wanting for nothing in school terms is some of the best money any government can spend. Every one of those kids that makes it through to the end of the school system is far less likely to be a long term draw on the state.

Getting off topic but i have to disagree.
Involved in education in the day job and see these kids every year staying in school achieving nothing except a good statistic for the school and stopping others who might have opportunity to better themselves.
It really annoys me looking at them everyday knowing they are above the system and discouraging kids that want to better themselves.

Donegalforever

whelan2 wrote: »

Seems to be alot of gloom around farming at the moment. Certainly wouldnt be overly encouraging my kids into a farming career. Will land be left idle. Everyone can't go into dairyying, can they? Beef farmers can't continue farming at a loss.What do you think the future holds?

Five years can be a long time or a short time depending on how thing go for the individual.

It depends if you regard the glass as half full or half empty,
I am a believer in regarding the glass as half full.

Nekarsulm

epfff wrote: »

Getting off topic but i have to disagree.
Involved in education in the day job and see these kids every year staying in school achieving nothing except a good statistic for the school and stopping others who might have opportunity to better themselves.
It really annoys me looking at them everyday knowing they are above the system and discouraging kids that want to better themselves.

Was involved in auctioneering and house rentals for about five years.
There is a complete sub section of society who despise education, and will not encourage their children to study, attend school or in any way better themselves.
Typically you would go to get a contract signed, and there would be no such thing as a pen or pencil in the house.
There would be a TV five feet across and enough DVD's to start a library, but not a single printed piece of paper in the house.
Not a book, a newspaper nor a notebook.
Countless times I went to houses ghat people had moved out of, and the kids school bags would be dumped in the shed, or outside in the garden.
Full of copies, textbooks, pencil cases etc, etc.
Couldn't be arsed bringing them with them, sure the Welfare would get them new stuff in the next place.

Don't miss dealing with the dregs of society one little bit...

screamer

Bigger dairy farms with massive herds the big guys will get bigger.
Bigger beef guys contract rearing will become their main income.
Smaller beef guys diversification and organic, to get better prices for what they produce. More environmental schemes etc.

Overall though I do see a reduction in the national herd and a lot of tough decisions being made to sell up when the figures continue to not stack up.