Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

CelticRambler

Repeat after me:
Project Fear,
Project Fear,
Project Fear ...

New York has extended its lead as the world’s top financial center, with London barely holding on to second place ahead of Hong Kong

From a separate article on the same report:

London held onto second place in the index, but fell 14 points in the ratings. If London and Paris have similar falls and rises in the ratings in GFCI 27, London would be reduced to a two point lead over Paris and would lie behind Shanghai.

Shenzhen, Dubai, and Sydney entered the top 10, easing out Toronto, Zurich, and Frankfurt.

It's all very well aspiring to make the City of London a "Singapore-upon-Thames" but there's one serious flaw in that plan: London will never be relocated to Asia. Unsurprisingly, London's geographical position as "half way" between the time zones of Asia and the Americas becomes irrelevant when those economic powers trade directly with each other across the Pacific.

And of course, if the City of London is dropping down the world rankings, the much-bragged-about position of Britain's economy as a whole won't be far behind.

trellheim

lawred2 wrote: »

No deal can pass without Labour and/or the SNP and/or the LibDems

The ERG are an irrelevance

They are not an irrelevance. There was an excellent thread on twitter Peter foster linked yesyerday that gave the breakdown which made a majority just in favour of it but the ERG had to be kept onside ... let me see.

sorry here it is got caught up in the bile steve barclay is spouting in Madrid


https://twitter.com/iain_w_anderson/status/1174222427712380929


now thems real numbers you might not like them but its as accurate as anything else.

Also remember that without stormont back in a few weeks , NI gets abortion and gay marriage which will soften the DUP's cough so to speak ( Arlene is extremely well aware of this)

Scoondal

The British government does not care about Northern Ireland. They are going to throw the DUP under the bus to get out of EU. Normal Unionists want to remain in EU.

Imreoir2

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

If I’m getting this right, Arlene Foster is now saying that if any potential Brexit deal is put to a people’s vote in NI then it must receive a majority backing of both the nationalist and unionist population rather than just 50% +1 of the overall population.

How does that even work? As far as I am aware people don’t self identify as nationalist or unionist at the ballot box. It’s unworkable and she knows it. Dangerous rhetoric, especially if the DUP start trying to apply the same logic to any future potential border poll.

Perhaps it should be pointed out that this questionable logic could also be applied to the question of the union, requireing a majority of both Unionists and Nationalists to support the union for it to be maintained.

Seth Brundle

trellheim wrote: »

https://twitter.com/iain_w_anderson/status/1174222427712380929


now thems real numbers you might not like them but its as accurate as anything else.

Also remember that without stormont back in a few weeks , NI gets abortion and gay marriage which will soften the DUP's cough so to speak ( Arlene is extremely well aware of this)

I note the wording "Vote on a revised deal on an 'all-Ireland" backstop..."
Are they seriously thinking of voting on the status of the RoI?

Jizique

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I note the wording "Vote on a revised deal on an 'all-Ireland" backstop..."
Are they seriously thinking of voting on the status of the RoI?

That speech from Barclay today sounds like it was written by Sammy Wilson

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1174626103111168000

Sierra Oscar

Jizique wrote: »

That speech from Barclay today sounds like it was written by Sammy Wilson

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1174626103111168000

It’s extraordinary stuff as they say.

https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/1174634109425135616

ath262

the letter Boris sent to Council President Donald Tusk today recently - 19th August 2019 is here

much of the usual stuff - commitment to the GFA and CTA, and retaining benefits of Single Electricity Market then the usual waffle about the Anti-Democratic Backstop, and vague commitment to replace backstop with unspecified arrangements

lawred2

trellheim wrote: »

They are not an irrelevance. There was an excellent thread on twitter Peter foster linked yesyerday that gave the breakdown which made a majority just in favour of it but the ERG had to be kept onside ... let me see.

sorry here it is got caught up in the bile steve barclay is spouting in Madrid


https://twitter.com/iain_w_anderson/status/1174222427712380929


now thems real numbers you might not like them but its as accurate as anything else.

Also remember that without stormont back in a few weeks , NI gets abortion and gay marriage which will soften the DUP's cough so to speak ( Arlene is extremely well aware of this)

seems to me that it's the independents that hold sway there

trellheim

Oh of course but a lot of them have already voted for May's deal . ( as I said above Steve barclay is playing the bogeyman "woo! woo ! scary stuff to happen if deal doesn't happen" card excellently. Dom Cummings not playing a bad hand here )

farmchoice

trellheim wrote: »

They are not an irrelevance. There was an excellent thread on twitter Peter foster linked yesyerday that gave the breakdown which made a majority just in favour of it but the ERG had to be kept onside ... let me see.

sorry here it is got caught up in the bile steve barclay is spouting in Madrid


https://twitter.com/iain_w_anderson/status/1174222427712380929


now thems real numbers you might not like them but its as accurate as anything else.

Also remember that without stormont back in a few weeks , NI gets abortion and gay marriage which will soften the DUP's cough so to speak ( Arlene is extremely well aware of this)

it seems to me that those figures are making a lot of wild assumptions about the voting intentions of both the extreme pro brexit types and the rebels who were thrown out of the party. it has 8 tory rebels out a possible 100 (80 erg 20 rebels) now of the 80 erg there are a hardcore of at least 20 who claim they will not accept the WA under any circumstances and of the rebels there are at least 5 to 10 who it is very hard to see voting with this government.

also 17 labour pro government votes seems a bit high there have never been 17 yet as far as i know there have been about 5-10 with a few abstentions but those figure call for all 17 to vote with boris.

lawred2

farmchoice wrote: »

it seems to me that those figures are making a lot of wild assumptions about the voting intentions of both the extreme pro brexit types and the rebels who were thrown out of the party. it has 8 tory rebels out a possible 100 (80 erg 20 rebels) now of the 80 erg there are a hardcore of at least 20 who claim they will not accept the WA under any circumstances and of the rebels there are at least 5 to 10 who it is very hard to see voting with this government.

also 17 labour pro government votes seems a bit high there have never been 17 yet as far as i know there have been about 5-10 with a few abstentions but those figure call for all 17 to vote with boris.

it's dreadfully optimistic

josip

CelticRambler wrote: »

Repeat after me:
Project Fear,
Project Fear,
Project Fear ...

New York has extended its lead as the world’s top financial center, with London barely holding on to second place ahead of Hong Kong

From a separate article on the same report:


It's all very well aspiring to make the City of London a "Singapore-upon-Thames" but there's one serious flaw in that plan: London will never be relocated to Asia. Unsurprisingly, London's geographical position as "half way" between the time zones of Asia and the Americas becomes irrelevant when those economic powers trade directly with each other across the Pacific.

And of course, if the City of London is dropping down the world rankings, the much-bragged-about position of Britain's economy as a whole won't be far behind.

That article also mentions Frankfurt dropping out of the top 10.
I would have thought they'd be rising on the back of London's loss?
Unless there's a larger 'rise of the Asian centers' trend taking place that's having an even greater impact than Brexit.

Clare in Exile

That's twice now that I've seen Barclay refer to Trimble in the last few days regarding the GFA. The other occasion he laughably used reference to a statement from Lord Trimble condemning the Backstop; he somehow saw this as proof that there was cross community support for the belief that the Backstop rode roughshod over the GFA. Unbelievably he seemed to think that the DUP and UUP were different sides of the divide, perhaps missing the common word in their tiles - the mind boggles...

robinph

The EU saying they are accepting no-deal, doesn't actually mean it is more likely to happen on the 31st October. Unless Johnson gets around the requirement to send the letter to request an extension then extension is what will be happening for now.

The EU have already done a test run on the vote of if they will accept an extension request, so basically all that is needed to get the extension is for Johnson to not get a deal before the summit. Who actually makes the request is academic, unless parliament change their mind the request has practically already been made. If Johnson doesn't do it personally then parliament just work their way through the chain of command until they find someone who will. Whilst parliament isn't falling for the vote of no confidence scheme of Johnson at the moment, if it comes to finding someone to send the letter then very quickly they will be able to organise themselves to find someone to stand as PM with the sole purpose of sending the letter if needed.

trellheim

ath262 wrote: »

the letter Boris sent to Council President Donald Tusk today is here

much of the usual stuff - commitment to the GFA and CTA, and retaining benefits of Single Electricity Market then the usual waffle about the Anti-Democratic Backstop, and vague commitment to replace backstop with unspecified arrangements

Very interesting to see what tone Tusk/Barnier comes back with (closed door or ray of light) .... watch eurotwitter like a hawk now

lawred2

trellheim wrote: »

Very interesting to see what tone Tusk/Barnier comes back with (closed door or ray of light) .... watch eurotwitter like a hawk now

that letter contains nothing already not discounted

why are you expecting anything other than a polite thanks but no thanks!?

Imreoir2

josip wrote: »

That article also mentions Frankfurt dropping out of the top 10.
I would have thought they'd be rising on the back of London's loss?
Unless there's a larger 'rise of the Asian centers' trend taking place that's having an even greater impact than Brexit.

London is losing out relative to other European centers, but it seems European centers including the UK are losing out relative to other centers in the US, the Middle East and Asia. Not so very surprising given that Brexit is bad for Europe as a whole.

Kermit.de.frog

ath262 wrote: »

the letter Boris sent to Council President Donald Tusk today is here

much of the usual stuff - commitment to the GFA and CTA, and retaining benefits of Single Electricity Market then the usual waffle about the Anti-Democratic Backstop, and vague commitment to replace backstop with unspecified arrangements

Letter is from the 19th of August?

farmchoice

robinph wrote: »

The EU saying they are accepting no-deal, doesn't actually mean it is more likely to happen on the 31st October. Unless Johnson gets around the requirement to send the letter to request an extension then extension is what will be happening for now.

The EU have already done a test run on the vote of if they will accept an extension request, so basically all that is needed to get the extension is for Johnson to not get a deal before the summit. Who actually makes the request is academic, unless parliament change their mind the request has practically already been made. If Johnson doesn't do it personally then parliament just work their way through the chain of command until they find someone who will. Whilst parliament isn't falling for the vote of no confidence scheme of Johnson at the moment, if it comes to finding someone to send the letter then very quickly they will be able to organise themselves to find someone to stand as PM with the sole purpose of sending the letter if needed.

yes but finding someone to stand as pm to send the letter would under the fixed term parliament act necessitate the removal of the sitting PM to do this would require a vote of no confidence in the sitting PM followed 14 days later ( if a GE is voted down) by the leader of the opposition being invited to form a government, or al least that is my understanding of it.

Imreoir2

farmchoice wrote: »

yes but finding someone to stand as pm to send the letter would under the fixed term parliament act necessitate the removal of the sitting PM to do this would require a vote of no confidence in the sitting PM followed 14 days later ( if a GE is voted down) by the leader of the opposition being invited to form a government, or al least that is my understanding of it.

Yes, but the motion can be put as "Not withstanding the Fixed Term Parliament Act..." and as such the provisions of that act can be set aside. Parliament has the power to amend or remove any such legal obstical if it sees fit to do so.

J Mysterio

Sajid Javid in Dublin today to meet Paschal Donoghue.

robinph

farmchoice wrote: »

yes but finding someone to stand as pm to send the letter would under the fixed term parliament act necessitate the removal of the sitting PM to do this would require a vote of no confidence in the sitting PM followed 14 days later ( if a GE is voted down) by the leader of the opposition being invited to form a government, or al least that is my understanding of it.

My understanding was that parliament has 14 days in which to find someone they will appoint as PM, not that it takes 14 days to do so. So if they have themselves organised behind someone then it's basically hold the vote of no confidence, Johnson looses, stand in PM steps forward and says I'll do it, vote. So can all be done and dusted in a day.

The general election only happens if parliament doesn't find someone they can support. Which is why Johnson was trying to encourage them to hold the vote previously as he knew they didn't have confidence in him, but also didn't have confidence in Corbyn... therefore a general election would happen.

Once you get into the last week or so before the deadline they can probably get behind a temp PM whose only job is to send a letter to the EU and call a referendum/ election.

robinph

Is this not an admission of guilt by the government regarding if they have prorogued parliament for dodgy reasons or not?

Governement QC wrote:

A government submission to the Supreme Court has told the 11 justices in the prorogation case that if they rule against the prime minister he may just simply take a new decision to immediate close down Parliament again – thereby stopping it from sitting.

The submissions – which the government has so far refused to give the media - set out No 10’s legal-thinking on what the Supreme Court should do, if it were to rule that the prime minister acted unlawfully by shutting Parliament for five weeks.

In the documents Sir James Eadie QC, for the prime minister, writes that if the justices quash the original formal order to prorogue Parliament, taken on 28 August, that would mean that Parliament would remain “in session”.

In practice that would mean MPs could immediately return to the House of Commons.

He continues: “However, depending on the court’s reasoning it would still either be open or not open to the prime minister to consider a further prorogation.”

farmchoice

robinph wrote: »

Is this not an admission of guilt by the government regarding if they have prorogued parliament for dodgy reasons or not?

no, yesterday the governments legal team asked about relief (what would happen if they lost) and the court asked them to produce documentation to outline what they think would happen in that case.
this is normal procedure and not an admission of guilt.


i have watched a fair bit of the supreme court proceedings and to my completely untrained eye it does not seem to be going well for johnson and the government.

lawred2

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

UK 'cannot meet' EU deadline for Brexit plan and needs another year, government says
Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay says UK should be given 'until December 2020' to come up with plan for Irish border

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deadline-irish-backstop-no-deal-stephen-barclay-october-a9111756.html

Oh please no. Make it stop.

painful but better than no deal idiocy

farmchoice

lawred2 wrote: »

painful but better than no deal idiocy

he appears to be suggesting that the eu drop the backstop and that the uk exit on the 31st and head into a transition period and the eu take their word that they will have something sorted by the end of 2020.

lawred2

farmchoice wrote: »

he appears to be suggesting that the eu drop the backstop and that the uk exit on the 31st and head into a transition period and the eu take their word that they will have something sorted by the end of 2020.

oh god no - I misread

that is actually no deal idiocy

Zubeneschamali

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

UK 'cannot meet' EU deadline for Brexit plan and needs another year, government says

That can be arranged easily enough, when the UK asks for an extension until January, the EU says OK, January 2021 it is.

VinLieger

farmchoice wrote: »

he appears to be suggesting that the eu drop the backstop and that the uk exit on the 31st and head into a transition period and the eu take their word that they will have something sorted by the end of 2020.

Obviously the goal here is to have nothing prepared and then when the next deadline comes they will say "look its worked for 12 months without a backstop, we don't need anything and will just keep it as is"

The EU won't go for it because its completely transparent in its purpose, not to mention stupid and unworkable