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August 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 29-07-2019 3:55pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for August, 2019. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 15.1 deg C.

    2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during August.

    3. Predict the MIN temperature during August (see 2 above for overview).

    4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during August.

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during August.

    6. BONUS -- Continuing the Battle of the Provinces, read carefully ... this month it will be Leinster vs the winner of Connacht vs Ulster. It's more likely to be Connacht but if you want to enter before we know the result, just give answers for either opponent. This final round, we will use the full line-up of stations for each province. If Connacht wins that means Mountdillon, Newport, Belmullet, Claremorris, Newport, Mace Head and Knock (probably staying in the dressing room) get to participate, and so do Mullingar, Dunsany, Phoenix Park, Dublin, Oak Park, and Johnstown Castle. (If it's Ulster I will probably allow in the NI stations).

    I think the "normal" value for Leinster vs Connacht in August might be about 17-14, for Leinster vs Ulster more like 24-7. But if you qualify, you get to play in the finals. In any case, your score is determined by how close you come to getting the spread right, will anyone go 31-0? Don't forget, August has 31 days. Somebody has to win, no extra time on 1st of September.

    Bonus points earned in the three monthly rounds will be totalled up at the end of August and the winning forecaster will get two superbonus points then, with second place earning one.

    Watch for announcements about who wins to face Leinster, it was 14-14 after the 28th. If either wins both today and tomorrow, then we know for sure by Wednesday morning, if it goes 1-1 then we have to wait on it.

    Deadline will be extended this one time back to the old 1500h on the 1st (Thursday) to allow some time for dealing with this more complex bonus situation. The late penalties will run at double the usual pace to catch up to their usual impact by 0300h Friday. From there they will remain the same as usual.

    Good luck !!


«13

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen ______ 13.8 _ 24.7 _ 1.2 _ 130 _ 90 ____ 16-15 (Leinster-Connacht), 21-10 (Leinster-Ulster)

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 351 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways ______ 15.3 _ 24.8 _ 2.1 _ 103 _ 98 ____ 19-12 (Leinster-Connaught), 25-6 (Leinster-Ulster)


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts ______ 15.6_ 25.8 _ 3.1 _ 100_ 98 ____ 17-14(Leinster-Connaught), 23-8 (Leinster-Ulster)


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    About 90% sure now that Ulster has pulled off an upset win today. Keep posting both possibilities though, and note that the contest deadline is held back to 1500h on Thursday 1st to give a bit of extra time to work through this ... will absolutely confirm Ulster is the opponent for Leinster by 0900h if you want to wait for that.

    As mentioned in the intro post, Ulster will get to use the Northern Ireland stations vs all of the Leinster stations.

    The link that I will use to determine maxima in NI (along with Ballyhaise, Finner and Malin Head) is here:

    http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/tmaxi.php?region=uk

    This gives a preliminary set of numbers after 18z (1900h) which you can see for today's readings already. Then there's a final version posted after 06z (0700h) but at this time of year, those won't change very often if at all. In the winter they could with more air mass control of temperatures.

    So we're going to follow the golf model here and ignore the border on this one occasion. I still think Leinster will be favoured heavily but strong southeast flow patterns could favour Ulster.

    Here's my prediction anyway, assuming it is Ulster ...

    15.6 __ 25.5 __ 1.5 __ 120 __ 105 ____ 22-9 (L vs U) or 18-13 (L vs C).


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,997 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac ______ 15.0 _ 27.8 _ 2.7 _ 103 _ 102 ____ 17-14 (Leinster-Connaught), 17-14 (Leinster-Ulster)


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  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,114 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ______ 15.4 _ 27.8 _ 2.3 _ 106 _ 98 ____ 23-8 (Leinster-Connaught), 26-5 (Leinster-Ulster)


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry______ 15.9_ 25 _ 1.9_ 120 _ 90_22-9 (Leinster-Ulster)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002 ______ 15.4 _ 26.5 _ 2.5 _ 110 _ 90 ____ 16-15 (Leinster-Connacht), 23-8 (Leinster-Ulster)


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels
    13.9 _ 26.4 _ 1.4 _ 115 _ 88 ____ 17-15 (Leinster-Connacht) 20-11 (Leinster-Ulster)


  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3______ 15.5_ 26.2 _ 2.4_ 110 _ 95_20-11 (Leinster-Ulster) 25 -6 (Leinster Connaught)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ______ 15.8 _ 26.3 _ 2.3 _ 131 _ 97 _ 21-10 (L v U)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,773 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa______ 15.7_ 29.2 _ 2.2_ 133_ 85__ 24-7 (Leinster-Ulster)


  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    DAsa29 ______ 15.5 _ 27.5 _ 5.0 _ 125 _ 105 _ 17-14 (L v U)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,715 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal ______ 15.5 _ 25.0 _ 2.0 _ 115 _ 100 _ 22-9 (L v U)


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,565 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Can't believe ulster pipped us. It was going to be so different in the final when we had mount Dillon and "The furnace" back in our team :(

    Rikand _____ 15.5 ____ 25.0 ____ 2.0 ____ 90 ____ 120 ____ Leinster 28, ulster 3

    Dublin to sweep all in front of them aside like they always do


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,764 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire ______ 15.2 _ 24.5 _ 2.5 _ 115 _ 105 _ 22-9 (L v U)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,746 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public______ 15.3_ 26.9 _ 2.6_ 111 _ 99
    21-10 (Leinster-Ulster)


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    JCXBXC______ 15.0_ 27.2 _ 2.2_ 115_ 85__ 25-6 (Leinster-Ulster)


  • Registered Users Posts: 318 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 15.6 ___ 25.1 ___ 2.0 ___ 110 ___ 110 ___ 24-7 (Leinster-Ulster)


  • Registered Users Posts: 748 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    Adam240610__15.8_26.0_2.0_120_90_22vs9 (L v U)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner______15_____26.1_____2.8_____112_____91_____21-10


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn ______ 15.6 _ 26.8 _ 2.1 _ 140 _ 105 ____ 21-10 (Leinster-Ulster)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Unfortunately I am not able to stipulate on our bonus question this morning until we get some guidance from M.T. later on today.
    Just as a suggestion I would pick just Ballyhaise 20.3°C for Ulster and Oak Park 21.7°C for Leinster.
    I would give a provisional score 1-0 for Leinster. But it is up to M.T to make up the rules of this contest.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    The Northern Ireland max was 20.9 at Castlederg so Leinster wins with several over 21. 1-0 for Leinster. The link is 24h max at meteociel for the NI data. Accurate as to the ROI stations shown (not all of the Leinster ones however so I continue to check the met.ie site for those).

    Will post table of entries later, on to scoring July at present.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for August 2019


    FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ BONUS (L vs U)


    Pauldry ______________ 15.9 _ 25.0 _ 1.9 _ 120 _ 090 ____ 22 - 9

    Tae laidir _____________ 15.8 _ 26.3 _ 2.3 _ 131 _ 097 ____ 21-10

    Adam240610 __________15.8 _ 26.0 _ 2.0 _ 120 _ 090 ____ 22 - 9

    Dacogawa ____________ 15.7 _ 29.2 _ 2.2 _ 133 _ 085 ____ 24 - 7

    Jpmarn ______________ 15.6 _ 26.8 _ 2.1 _ 140 _ 105 ____ 21-10

    mickger844posts _______15.6 _ 25.8 _ 3.1 _ 100 _ 098 ____ 23 - 8

    M. T. Cranium _________ 15.6 _ 25.5 _ 1.5 _ 120 _ 105 ____ 22 - 9

    Kindred Spirit _________ 15.6 _ 25.1 _ 2.0 _ 110 _ 110 ____ 24 - 7

    Dasa29 ______________ 15.5 _ 27.5 _ 5.0 _ 125 _ 105 ____ 17-14

    Sunflower3 ___________ 15.5 _ 26.2 _ 2.4 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 20-11

    Rikand _______________15.5 _ 25.0 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 28 - 3


    _____ Con Sensus _____ 15.5 _ 26.2 _ 2.2 _ 115 _ 098 ____ 22 - 9


    Bsal _________________15.5 _ 25.0 _ 2.0 _ 115 _ 100 ____ 22 - 9

    DOCARCH ____________ 15.4 _ 27.8 _ 2.3 _ 106 _ 098 ____ 26 - 5

    Artane2002 ___________ 15.4 _ 26.5 _ 2.5 _ 110 _ 090 ____ 23 - 8

    Joe Public _____________15.3 _ 26.9 _ 2.6 _ 111 _ 099 ____ 21-10

    waterways ____________15.3 _ 24.8 _ 2.1 _ 103 _ 098 ____ 25 - 6

    Rameire _____________ 15.2 _ 24.5 _ 2.5 _ 115 _ 105 ____ 22 - 9


    _____ NormaL ________ 15.1 _ 26.5 _ 1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 24 - 7


    john mac _____________15.0 _ 27.8 _ 2.7 _ 103 _ 102 ____ 17-14

    JCXBXC ______________ 15.0 _ 27.2 _ 2.2 _ 115 _ 085 ____ 25 - 6

    MrSkinner ____________ 15.0 _ 26.1 _ 2.8 _ 112 _ 091 ____ 21-10

    200motels ____________13.9 _ 26.4 _ 1.4 _ 115 _ 088 ____ 20-11

    sryanbruen ___________ 13.8 _ 24.7 _ 1.2 _ 130 _ 090 ____ 21-10

    _______________________________________________________________________

    22 forecasts, median is average of 11th and 12th ranked (Con Sensus).

    The Leinster vs Ulster bonus question has this distribution of forecasts:

    17-14 _______________ 2
    18-13 _______________ 0
    19-12 _______________ 0
    20-11 _______________ 2
    21-10 _______________ 5
    22- 9 ________________5
    23- 8 ________________2
    24- 7 ________________2
    25- 6 ________________2
    26- 5 ________________1
    27- 4 ________________0
    28 -3 ________________1
    ____________________________________________________

    Consensus forecast appears to be somewhat warmer than average, a little wetter than normal with near normal sunshine. Two outliers go quite a bit cooler. (No forecasts in the 14s but two in the 13s).


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    On the 2nd, Thomastown (NI) reached 24.1 (from meteociel map). Castlederg also warmer than available Leinster stations.

    (link for this is here)

    http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/tmaxi.php?region=uk


    No Leinster station on the same map reached 24, but will check the met.ie site later if JPmarn doesn't. Score 1-1 (subject to check).


    I am also going to track Leinster vs Connacht just for fun, on the 1st, Connacht won (Newport !!) (Newman !!). Looks like 2-0 now, check later.

    (will edit this post rather than posting again later)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    On the 2nd, Thomastown (NI) reached 24.1 (from meteociel map). Castlederg also warmer than available Leinster stations.

    (link for this is here)

    http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/tmaxi.php?region=uk


    No Leinster station on the same map reached 24, but will check the met.ie site later if JPmarn doesn't. Score 1-1 (subject to check).


    I am also going to track Leinster vs Connacht just for fun, on the 1st, Connacht won (Newport !!) (Newman !!). Looks like 2-0 now, check later.

    (will edit this post rather than posting again later)

    Just looked at met.ie and the best temperature in Leinster is 23.7 at Oak Park Carlow. So Ulster should get a point as a saw 24.1 in Co. Fermanagh on Meteociel website.
    Score 1-1.
    Just Checking on the location of Mt. Dillon weather station. It was the warmest place in Ireland at 25.4°C. I know it’s straddling the Longford Roscommon border. A peat factory with that name in the news recently is in Co. Longford. If the weather station is there it should be 2-0 to Leinster.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    I checked, and Mountdillon is in co. Roscommon and therefore in Connacht (as per Monthly Bulletin and also the Word of Rikand who lives nearby). :)

    You're probably right in assuming it was a similar temperature somewhere nearby in Leinster, but we're going off the actual station data for this.

    The irony is that I held Mountdillon out of the July round sensing that it would make for a no contest situation, often being warmer than other inland stations.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,565 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Don't take my word for it if it means a point for Leinster

    Alls fair in love and boards.ie weather contests :)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    I thought myself that Mt Dillon weather station is in Co. Roscommon.
    M.T is also following Leinster V Connaught as well so should Connaught earned a point on the strength of Mt Dillon following the same rules as the Leinster V Ulster contest. The score there should be 1-1 as well.


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