August 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for August, 2019. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 15.1 deg C.

2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during August.

3. Predict the MIN temperature during August (see 2 above for overview).

4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during August.

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during August.

6. BONUS -- Continuing the Battle of the Provinces, read carefully ... this month it will be Leinster vs the winner of Connacht vs Ulster. It's more likely to be Connacht but if you want to enter before we know the result, just give answers for either opponent. This final round, we will use the full line-up of stations for each province. If Connacht wins that means Mountdillon, Newport, Belmullet, Claremorris, Newport, Mace Head and Knock (probably staying in the dressing room) get to participate, and so do Mullingar, Dunsany, Phoenix Park, Dublin, Oak Park, and Johnstown Castle. (If it's Ulster I will probably allow in the NI stations).

I think the "normal" value for Leinster vs Connacht in August might be about 17-14, for Leinster vs Ulster more like 24-7. But if you qualify, you get to play in the finals. In any case, your score is determined by how close you come to getting the spread right, will anyone go 31-0? Don't forget, August has 31 days. Somebody has to win, no extra time on 1st of September.

Bonus points earned in the three monthly rounds will be totalled up at the end of August and the winning forecaster will get two superbonus points then, with second place earning one.

Watch for announcements about who wins to face Leinster, it was 14-14 after the 28th. If either wins both today and tomorrow, then we know for sure by Wednesday morning, if it goes 1-1 then we have to wait on it.

Deadline will be extended this one time back to the old 1500h on the 1st (Thursday) to allow some time for dealing with this more complex bonus situation. The late penalties will run at double the usual pace to catch up to their usual impact by 0300h Friday. From there they will remain the same as usual.

Good luck !!

sryanbruen

sryanbruen ______ 13.8 _ 24.7 _ 1.2 _ 130 _ 90 ____ 16-15 (Leinster-Connacht), 21-10 (Leinster-Ulster)

waterways

waterways ______ 15.3 _ 24.8 _ 2.1 _ 103 _ 98 ____ 19-12 (Leinster-Connaught), 25-6 (Leinster-Ulster)

mickger844posts

mickger844posts ______ 15.6_ 25.8 _ 3.1 _ 100_ 98 ____ 17-14(Leinster-Connaught), 23-8 (Leinster-Ulster)

M.T. Cranium

About 90% sure now that Ulster has pulled off an upset win today. Keep posting both possibilities though, and note that the contest deadline is held back to 1500h on Thursday 1st to give a bit of extra time to work through this ... will absolutely confirm Ulster is the opponent for Leinster by 0900h if you want to wait for that.

As mentioned in the intro post, Ulster will get to use the Northern Ireland stations vs all of the Leinster stations.

The link that I will use to determine maxima in NI (along with Ballyhaise, Finner and Malin Head) is here:

http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/tmaxi.php?region=uk

This gives a preliminary set of numbers after 18z (1900h) which you can see for today's readings already. Then there's a final version posted after 06z (0700h) but at this time of year, those won't change very often if at all. In the winter they could with more air mass control of temperatures.

So we're going to follow the golf model here and ignore the border on this one occasion. I still think Leinster will be favoured heavily but strong southeast flow patterns could favour Ulster.

Here's my prediction anyway, assuming it is Ulster ...

15.6 __ 25.5 __ 1.5 __ 120 __ 105 ____ 22-9 (L vs U) or 18-13 (L vs C).

John mac

john mac ______ 15.0 _ 27.8 _ 2.7 _ 103 _ 102 ____ 17-14 (Leinster-Connaught), 17-14 (Leinster-Ulster)

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ______ 15.4 _ 27.8 _ 2.3 _ 106 _ 98 ____ 23-8 (Leinster-Connaught), 26-5 (Leinster-Ulster)

pauldry

Pauldry______ 15.9_ 25 _ 1.9_ 120 _ 90_22-9 (Leinster-Ulster)

Artane2002

Artane2002 ______ 15.4 _ 26.5 _ 2.5 _ 110 _ 90 ____ 16-15 (Leinster-Connacht), 23-8 (Leinster-Ulster)

200motels

200motels

---

13.9 _ 26.4 _ 1.4 _ 115 _ 88 ____ 17-15 (Leinster-Connacht) 20-11 (Leinster-Ulster)

sunflower3

Sunflower3______ 15.5_ 26.2 _ 2.4_ 110 _ 95_20-11 (Leinster-Ulster) 25 -6 (Leinster Connaught)

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ______ 15.8 _ 26.3 _ 2.3 _ 131 _ 97 _ 21-10 (L v U)

dacogawa

Dacogawa______ 15.7_ 29.2 _ 2.2_ 133_ 85__ 24-7 (Leinster-Ulster)

dasa29

DAsa29 ______ 15.5 _ 27.5 _ 5.0 _ 125 _ 105 _ 17-14 (L v U)

Bsal

Bsal ______ 15.5 _ 25.0 _ 2.0 _ 115 _ 100 _ 22-9 (L v U)

Rikand

Can't believe ulster pipped us. It was going to be so different in the final when we had mount Dillon and "The furnace" back in our team

Rikand _____ 15.5 ____ 25.0 ____ 2.0 ____ 90 ____ 120 ____ Leinster 28, ulster 3

Dublin to sweep all in front of them aside like they always do

rameire

Rameire ______ 15.2 _ 24.5 _ 2.5 _ 115 _ 105 _ 22-9 (L v U)

Joe Public

Joe Public______ 15.3_ 26.9 _ 2.6_ 111 _ 99

---

21-10 (Leinster-Ulster)

JCX BXC

JCXBXC______ 15.0_ 27.2 _ 2.2_ 115_ 85__ 25-6 (Leinster-Ulster)

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 15.6 ___ 25.1 ___ 2.0 ___ 110 ___ 110 ___ 24-7 (Leinster-Ulster)

adam240610

Adam240610__15.8_26.0_2.0_120_90_22vs9 (L v U)

mrskinner

Skinner______15_____26.1_____2.8_____112_____91_____21-10

Jpmarn

Jpmarn ______ 15.6 _ 26.8 _ 2.1 _ 140 _ 105 ____ 21-10 (Leinster-Ulster)

Jpmarn

Unfortunately I am not able to stipulate on our bonus question this morning until we get some guidance from M.T. later on today.
Just as a suggestion I would pick just Ballyhaise 20.3°C for Ulster and Oak Park 21.7°C for Leinster.
I would give a provisional score 1-0 for Leinster. But it is up to M.T to make up the rules of this contest.

M.T. Cranium

The Northern Ireland max was 20.9 at Castlederg so Leinster wins with several over 21. 1-0 for Leinster. The link is 24h max at meteociel for the NI data. Accurate as to the ROI stations shown (not all of the Leinster ones however so I continue to check the met.ie site for those).

Will post table of entries later, on to scoring July at present.

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for August 2019


FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ BONUS (L vs U)


Pauldry ______________ 15.9 _ 25.0 _ 1.9 _ 120 _ 090 ____ 22 - 9

Tae laidir _____________ 15.8 _ 26.3 _ 2.3 _ 131 _ 097 ____ 21-10

Adam240610 __________15.8 _ 26.0 _ 2.0 _ 120 _ 090 ____ 22 - 9

Dacogawa ____________ 15.7 _ 29.2 _ 2.2 _ 133 _ 085 ____ 24 - 7

Jpmarn ______________ 15.6 _ 26.8 _ 2.1 _ 140 _ 105 ____ 21-10

mickger844posts _______15.6 _ 25.8 _ 3.1 _ 100 _ 098 ____ 23 - 8

M. T. Cranium _________ 15.6 _ 25.5 _ 1.5 _ 120 _ 105 ____ 22 - 9

Kindred Spirit _________ 15.6 _ 25.1 _ 2.0 _ 110 _ 110 ____ 24 - 7

Dasa29 ______________ 15.5 _ 27.5 _ 5.0 _ 125 _ 105 ____ 17-14

Sunflower3 ___________ 15.5 _ 26.2 _ 2.4 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 20-11

Rikand _______________15.5 _ 25.0 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 28 - 3


_____ Con Sensus _____ 15.5 _ 26.2 _ 2.2 _ 115 _ 098 ____ 22 - 9


Bsal _________________15.5 _ 25.0 _ 2.0 _ 115 _ 100 ____ 22 - 9

DOCARCH ____________ 15.4 _ 27.8 _ 2.3 _ 106 _ 098 ____ 26 - 5

Artane2002 ___________ 15.4 _ 26.5 _ 2.5 _ 110 _ 090 ____ 23 - 8

Joe Public _____________15.3 _ 26.9 _ 2.6 _ 111 _ 099 ____ 21-10

waterways ____________15.3 _ 24.8 _ 2.1 _ 103 _ 098 ____ 25 - 6

Rameire _____________ 15.2 _ 24.5 _ 2.5 _ 115 _ 105 ____ 22 - 9


_____ NormaL ________ 15.1 _ 26.5 _ 1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 24 - 7


john mac _____________15.0 _ 27.8 _ 2.7 _ 103 _ 102 ____ 17-14

JCXBXC ______________ 15.0 _ 27.2 _ 2.2 _ 115 _ 085 ____ 25 - 6

MrSkinner ____________ 15.0 _ 26.1 _ 2.8 _ 112 _ 091 ____ 21-10

200motels ____________13.9 _ 26.4 _ 1.4 _ 115 _ 088 ____ 20-11

sryanbruen ___________ 13.8 _ 24.7 _ 1.2 _ 130 _ 090 ____ 21-10

_______________________________________________________________________

22 forecasts, median is average of 11th and 12th ranked (Con Sensus).

The Leinster vs Ulster bonus question has this distribution of forecasts:

17-14 _______________ 2
18-13 _______________ 0
19-12 _______________ 0
20-11 _______________ 2
21-10 _______________ 5
22- 9 ________________5
23- 8 ________________2
24- 7 ________________2
25- 6 ________________2
26- 5 ________________1
27- 4 ________________0
28 -3 ________________1
____________________________________________________

Consensus forecast appears to be somewhat warmer than average, a little wetter than normal with near normal sunshine. Two outliers go quite a bit cooler. (No forecasts in the 14s but two in the 13s).

M.T. Cranium

On the 2nd, Thomastown (NI) reached 24.1 (from meteociel map). Castlederg also warmer than available Leinster stations.

(link for this is here)

http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/tmaxi.php?region=uk


No Leinster station on the same map reached 24, but will check the met.ie site later if JPmarn doesn't. Score 1-1 (subject to check).


I am also going to track Leinster vs Connacht just for fun, on the 1st, Connacht won (Newport !!) (Newman !!). Looks like 2-0 now, check later.

(will edit this post rather than posting again later)

Jpmarn

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

On the 2nd, Thomastown (NI) reached 24.1 (from meteociel map). Castlederg also warmer than available Leinster stations.

(link for this is here)

http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/tmaxi.php?region=uk


No Leinster station on the same map reached 24, but will check the met.ie site later if JPmarn doesn't. Score 1-1 (subject to check).


I am also going to track Leinster vs Connacht just for fun, on the 1st, Connacht won (Newport !!) (Newman !!). Looks like 2-0 now, check later.

(will edit this post rather than posting again later)

Just looked at met.ie and the best temperature in Leinster is 23.7 at Oak Park Carlow. So Ulster should get a point as a saw 24.1 in Co. Fermanagh on Meteociel website.
Score 1-1.
Just Checking on the location of Mt. Dillon weather station. It was the warmest place in Ireland at 25.4°C. I know it’s straddling the Longford Roscommon border. A peat factory with that name in the news recently is in Co. Longford. If the weather station is there it should be 2-0 to Leinster.

M.T. Cranium

I checked, and Mountdillon is in co. Roscommon and therefore in Connacht (as per Monthly Bulletin and also the Word of Rikand who lives nearby).

You're probably right in assuming it was a similar temperature somewhere nearby in Leinster, but we're going off the actual station data for this.

The irony is that I held Mountdillon out of the July round sensing that it would make for a no contest situation, often being warmer than other inland stations.

Rikand

Don't take my word for it if it means a point for Leinster

Alls fair in love and boards.ie weather contests

Jpmarn

I thought myself that Mt Dillon weather station is in Co. Roscommon.
M.T is also following Leinster V Connaught as well so should Connaught earned a point on the strength of Mt Dillon following the same rules as the Leinster V Ulster contest. The score there should be 1-1 as well.

Rikand

Mount Dillon weather station is Roscommon though.

99.9999999999998% certain

M.T. Cranium

I have it 2-0 for Connacht (Newport was warmer than Leinster stations on 1st and Mountdillon warmer on 2nd), but that's just for those who want to track the non-official contest. Will check later for 3rd, no Connacht stations have yet reported higher than the 21.8 Leinster max.

It now appears to be 2-1 for Leinster vs Ulster with no Ulster station showing higher than 21, while Oak Park had 21.8 (3rd). Will confirm this later.

Jpmarn

Just to confirm that it is 2-1 to Leinster. The weather station in Co. Fermanagh managed just 21°C. It was 21.9°C in Oak Park according to met.ie.
It now 1-2 in favour of Connaught after its best temperature 20.3 at Athenry.

Jpmarn

Some warm places in each of the provinces included in the Battles. Ulster, Ballyhaise 21.9°C shared with similar reports from the North. Connaught, Mt. Dillon 23.5°C (they got 36.1mm of rain). Leinster Phoenix Park 23.2°c. Not included in any battles is Munster, 21.9°C at Gurteen.

Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 3-1
Leinster v Connaught 0-1 total 1-3.

M.T. Cranium

Thanks for that, JPmarn, I will from now on this month just thank your post if I agree and the scoring looks correct, which is the case so far.If not I will post and we'll figure it out later.

Jpmarn

Max temperatures
Leinster 22.5° Phoenix Park,
Ulster 20.8 Derry NI.
Connaught 20.4° Mt Dillon.

Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 4-1
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 2-3.

Jpmarn

Max temperatures
Leinster 20.6 Oak Park,
Ulster 19.8 Belfast International*
Connaught 20.8° Mt Dillon warmest recorded temperature in Ireland.

Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 5-1
Leinster v Connaught 0-1 total 2-4.

*The temperatures from Northern Ireland is taken from the Meteoceil website and locations are approximate.

Jpmarn

The warmest spot in Connaught is not Mt Dillon. The Ulster hot spot is in the South but Leinster reigns supreme.

All Ireland Final Day 7
Max temperatures
Leinster 22.5° Oak Park,
Ulster 20.5 Ballyhaise
Connaught 21.7 Newport Co. Mayo

Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 6-1
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 3-4.

M.T. Cranium

After the first week of August ...

IMT on 16.5 which is 1.0 deg above normal.

MAX has not been above 24, MIN has not been below 8, AFAIK.

PRC opened up with 141% of normal.

SUN also above average at 125.3% (752/600).

Jpmarn

All Ireland Final Day 8
Max temperatures
Leinster 21.3° Oak Park,
Ulster 21.1 Co Tyrone*
Connaught 22.2 Mt. Dillon shared with Shannon for the highest temp in the country.

Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 7-1
Leinster v Connaught 0-1 total 3-5.

Jpmarn

All Ireland Final Day 9
Max temperatures
Leinster 21.4 Dusany
Ulster 22.6 Derry*
Connaught 22.7 Mt. Dillon

Scores, Leinster v Ulster 0-1 total 7-2
Leinster v Connaught 0-1 total 3-6.

Mt Dillon could do with a tropical resort hotel going be some of the stats this summer.
*The temperatures from Northern Ireland is taken from the Meteoceil website and locations are approximate.

Jpmarn

All Ireland Final Day 10
Max temperatures
Leinster 20.2 Phoenix Park
Ulster 20.8 Belfast*
Connaught 18.7 Mt. Dillon

Scores, Leinster v Ulster 0-1 total 7-3
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 4-6.

Jpmarn

All Ireland Final Day 11
Max temperatures
Leinster 18.8 Phoenix Park
Ulster 16.3 Belfast*
Connaught 17.9 Mt. Dillon

Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 8-3
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 5-6.

Jpmarn

All Ireland Final Day 12
Max temperatures
Leinster 18.8 Oak Park
Ulster 17.1 Derry and Tyrone*
Connaught 18.8 Newport Co. Mayo.

In our secondary competition there is a tie on the max temperature in Leinster and Connaught so the points will be awarded to the province with the higher min temperature.

Connaught 5.4 Claremorris, probably the monthly MIN.
Leinster 5.7 Mullingar.

Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 9-3
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 6-6.

M.T. Cranium

Agree with the scoring for the bonus and secondary contest, but in fact those minimum temperatures were at midnight on their way down to lower values, so far I have seen 4.6 at Claremorris (and 4.7 at Mullingar) as eventual MINs, both Markree and Mountdillon also hit hourly values of 5 C at 0600h and one of them could have gone lower than 4.6, won't know that until tomorrow's report. But at the time they were the MIN for the month to that point in time.

pauldry

Monthly min will be a lot lower by August 24th id say. Some cool charts temperature wise

Jpmarn

All Ireland Final Day 13
Max temperatures
Leinster 19.3 Oak Park
Ulster 19.9 Co. Tyrone*
Connaught 20.1 Newport

Scores, Leinster v Ulster 0-1 total 9-4
Leinster v Connaught 0-1 total 6-7.

MIN now 4.6°C at Claremorris followed by 4.7°C at Mullingar.

*The temperatures from Northern Ireland is taken from the Meteoceil website and locations are approximate.

Jpmarn

All Ireland Final Day 14
Max temperatures
Leinster 22.5 Oak Park
Ulster 21.5 Co. Tyrone*
Connaught 22.0 Mt Dillon

Scores, Leinster v Ulster 1-0 total 10-4
Leinster v Connaught 1-0 total 7-7.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT on 15.74, the second week averaged 14.9 which is 0.5 below normal.

MAX ... I thought it had not exceeded 24 yet, but apparently 25.4 at Mountdillon on 2nd ... MIN is 4.6 so far.

PRC is now exactly twice normal (200%) with the second week a soaking wet 259% of normal. This means that only about 5 mm of rain over the grid will ensure a normal outcome by end of month even if a dry spell then began and lasted to end of month. Malin Head and Belmullet have had significantly less rain than the other nine locations, several of which have already passed their August averages.

SUN is still above normal at 101% but week two was rather cloudy at 76% of normal (457/600).

Bonus as tracked by Jpmarn (many thanks) is 10-4 in favour of Leinster, would have been 7-7 had Connacht made it to the final.

pauldry

Was it not 25.4c at the start of August in Mt Dillon?