Future of beef production in Ireland.

lalababa

Just having a bit of a think about beef production esp. for the smaller farms and esp. for farms not making a profit aside from BPS. And Also the reduction of cattle for environmental reasons.
Now bear with me coz this is going to be a bumpy ride.
The big costs are contractors, fertilizers, housing and machinery, and your labour.
Well imagine getting rid of all of them (over time).
Reduce numbers, go organic, get rid of sucklers (not nesscessarily) buy calfs/runners from dairy. Use the housing until it needs to be knocked. Then reduce numbers even more and outwinter.
Now I'm wondering a way of farming where you have no fertilizer OR slurry OR manure.
Just a very low stocking rate and managing summer grass and outwintering. On heavy farms the stock rate would of course have to be very low.

patsy_mccabe

I was going to start a similar thread along the lines of 'how to deal with low beef prices'. So, where can you cut costs and not impact on profit?
Should we still spread lime?
Does say 2 bags of 18.6.12 per acre still make sense?
You can cut down on meal but should you still feed it to cattle for a quick finish or to weanlings before weaning.
It's hard to know what to do. I'm sceptical about cutting numbers if costs are not cut significantly.

Bullocks

I think we should be asking for a well paying environmental scheme and keep stocking rates down.
I'd love to see a subsidy for straw around where I am as opposed to giving grants for slats and slurry tanks.
Would it be wrong to incentivise sheep farming over sucklers? I reckon they are better on marginal ground and it's easier sell lambs than weanlings (for now i know)

DaDerv

I'm not sure were too many at the Teagasc event in Killimor during the week? The very first stall had me rattled. This was the farmer of the year, what we should all aspire to be like. They discussed his finances at the first stall and his gross margin was €890/ha farming 24 ha. Its taken him the best part of 12 years to get to this point, farming full time. Autumn calving, low costs for meal (€2000 avg), relatively high costs for fert (€5500 last year). His breeding plan has been fantastic and all credit to him he deserves it and the animals there looked great. Everything is optimal.

The issue i have is realistically even the lowest scale of a public sector job would make the same wage as a man who is the best suckler farmer in Ireland?

patsy_mccabe

So €890 was his Gross Margin. What was his Net Margin, or is that top secret? :mad:

DaDerv

patsy_mccabe wrote:

So €890 was his Gross Margin. What was his Net Margin, or is that top secret?

Didn't let us in on that. I suppose you could make an educated guess, he's not part of GLAS and doesn't qualify for young farmers. Given his ha's and his BDGP for 30 cows, maybe another 10k - 12k for grants? I wouldn't be sure tbh. One advisor said he doesn't believe in buying anything "fancy" in terms of machinery or equipment. So doesn't invest there. Everything he has goes into his pocket they said.

Panch18

There is going to be a significant cull of suckler cows in the next few years - I would expect there to be a 30-50% reduction in cow numbers over the next say 5 years.

The number of suckler cows is over inflated in this country due to the premia years, then fellas got a gra for them and kept them even though they could probably have made better money elsewhere

in the main I would expect the culled cows will be replaced with forestry, dairy calves or contract rearing etc

_Brian

DaDerv wrote: »

The issue i have is realistically even the lowest scale of a public sector job would make the same wage as a man who is the best suckler farmer in Ireland?

He could get work on a factory floor and probably have double the income for a fraction of the bother.

lalababa

I'm thinking Patsy McCabe, that alot are doing that extensive stuff already. I'd be thinking more along the lines of of organic ie no fertilizer and then no housing (no slurry) then no tractor for spreading and on and on till there was practically nothing on the farm save a few animals and some wiring. Basically the extreme of extensive farming. Of course more sheep (heavy land) less cattle would also tie into the idea. I'd be interested in hearing from extensive and organic farmers on this and farmers without sheds , and maybe burren farmers.

Limestone Cowboy

DaDerv wrote: »

I'm not sure were too many at the Teagasc event in Killimor during the week? The very first stall had me rattled. This was the farmer of the year, what we should all aspire to be like. They discussed his finances at the first stall and his gross margin was €890/ha farming 24 ha. Its taken him the best part of 12 years to get to this point, farming full time. Autumn calving, low costs for meal (€2000 avg), relatively high costs for fert (€5500 last year). His breeding plan has been fantastic and all credit to him he deserves it and the animals there looked great. Everything is optimal.

The issue i have is realistically even the lowest scale of a public sector job would make the same wage as a man who is the best suckler farmer in Ireland?

I was at it. A good operator alright, the cattle were all in good shape and healthy but wouldn't have thought them anything special either. Wouldn't be a fan of using them super easy calving Angus bulls on heifers. Some real plain butty calves out of them. Being too focused on just maternal traits takes away from the quality a bit too I think. I know a few will disagree with that. I didn't think his fert bill was excessive considering the farm wasn't that big and the amount of stock he was carrying.

Dozer1

is this not exaggerating it a bit, take a year like this one, loads of grass and in most places not enough stock.
The answer isn't bale it as there are too many of those already and bales won't last.

what will lads do who have excess bales that can't be sold and have sheds empty? let them rot or but some type of animal to eat it (most likely stores) and the cycle continues.

I think the beef farms are lowly stocked as it is, I can't name too many beef lads around me at even 70% fully stocked.

is letting it go wild the answer? I can't see that happening.

yes numbers will reduce but I would say some perspective will come into play aswell once the reality of whats available to replace them becomes reality.

tractorporn

_Brian wrote: »

He could get work on a factory floor and probably have double the income for a fraction of the bother.

Never a truer word spoken. Which I think will hit home with a lot of lads in the coming years.

lalababa

Hi Dozer , I'd be thinking along the lines of cost primarily, not having sheds empty. An empty shed is just waste. What I'm saying is not to build a new shed.
80k to build a 6 bay slatted suckler shed for 40 sucklers? Like how long will it take 2 to repay that?

kk.man

Most farming sectors go through lull periods. I remember factories were paying 80p per llb for steer beef going into intervention in the late eights and early nineties. This could have been over a 2 to 3 year period. Then we had BSE, foot and mouth since and we survived. These things happen in cycles imo get over it and plough on.

One of the best advice I got from a v prominent businessman who lived close by "in a recession prepare for the upturn".

Cavanjack

kk.man wrote: »

Most farming sectors go through lull periods. I remember factories were paying 80p per llb for steer beef going into intervention in the late eights and early nineties. This could have been over a 2 to 3 year period. Then we had BSE, foot and mouth since and we survived. These things happen in cycles imo get over it and plough on.

One of the best advice I got from a v prominent businessman who lived close by "in a recession prepare for the upturn".

Am Of the same opinion here too, going to plough on for another while. In saying that I’m part time and not relying on farm income,
I’m about to start a slatted shed and hope to get at least the 60% of the cost of it back. Going to stay well stocked and keep putting out a bit of fertilizer. No point letting the land go wild. Still have fixed costs no matter how few cattle you keep. Things can change fairly quickly and hopefully they do (for the better).
Sure was it 2016 or 2017 that the dairy men were getting a payout from the government too and they are not in a bad place now.

20silkcut

lalababa wrote: »

Hi Dozer , I'd be thinking along the lines of cost primarily, not having sheds empty. An empty shed is just waste. What I'm saying is not to build a new shed.
80k to build a 6 bay slatted suckler shed for 40 sucklers? Like how long will it take 2 to repay that?

What is the stocking rate limit for outwintering??

I know I am under it myself. Had this discussion with my adviser. Can’t remember the figure though

yosemitesam1

20silkcut wrote: »

What is the stocking rate limit for outwintering??

I know I am under it myself. Had this discussion with my adviser. Can’t remember the figure though

Fairly sure its 120kg

ScottCapper

How much do the big farms turnover? Say 200+ cattle surely it’s worth it for them? Can they employee people full time?

Muckit

Dozer1 wrote: »

is this not exaggerating it a bit, take a year like this one, loads of grass and in most places not enough stock.
The answer isn't bale it as there are too many of those already and bales won't last.

what will lads do who have excess bales that can't be sold and have sheds empty? let them rot or but some type of animal to eat it (most likely stores) and the cycle continues.

I think the beef farms are lowly stocked as it is, I can't name too many beef lads around me at even 70% fully stocked.

is letting it go wild the answer? I can't see that happening.

yes numbers will reduce but I would say some perspective will come into play aswell once the reality of whats available to replace them becomes reality.

Simple. Cut down or cut out fertiliser altogether and top 2 or 3 times in the year. Mulch it back into the ground.

It's a practice akin to the veg lads ploughing crops back into the ground.

epfff

ScottCapper wrote: »

How much do the big farms turnover? Say 200+ cattle surely it’s worth it for them? Can they employee people full time?

200+ aint big in the present day.
I would say at double a full time employee wouldn't pay for themselves.

148multi

kk.man wrote: »

Most farming sectors go through lull periods. I remember factories were paying 80p per llb for steer beef going into intervention in the late eights and early nineties. This could have been over a 2 to 3 year period. Then we had BSE, foot and mouth since and we survived. These things happen in cycles imo get over it and plough on.

One of the best advice I got from a v prominent businessman who lived close by "in a recession prepare for the upturn".

Agree fully, seen before the bse stock were on fire nothing could stop lads.
The swine flu could kill 250, million pigs in China alone, its in Europe already, is the whole world going to live on chicken. Our problem is a combination of things, for one Teagasc, the government and Europe want to throw us under the bus, but won't say so. Look what happened in NZ with the sheep, when subs stopped ewe numbers fell but production increased. We have something like 950,000 sucklers but only 750,000 calves, that's a lot of dead weight. How many dairy farmers would keep a cow that wasn't milking. I see lads afraid to let cows out before calving, but it's one of the best things to do, helps with disease, milk output, and fertility.

ScottCapper

epfff wrote: »

200+ aint big in the present day.
I would say at double a full time employee wouldn't pay for themselves.

What about 1000+ so

K9

Main thing is to operate a system that suits you and your land. No point in always chasing the wheal. The wheal will always keep turning. If finishing your stock suits you and was profitable last few years keep doing it. If selling weanlings or stores suit you keep doing it etc.
No point in blaming Teagasc and farmers journal. Farmers have to take responsibility for their own decisions and farms

Who2

Id say we are being walked down the road into contract rearing and contract finishing. Derogations are going to be history soon enough and dairy farmers are going to be looking at contract rearing , leasing and just taking over smaller farms so as to stick at similar levels. Whats left will be given fixed prices and told to make them work and later may even be supplied with the animals and feed and having to beg whichever factory to take us on, no different really to the chicken or pig industry.
With increasing populations, veganism and peoples lack of reality on where their food comes from id say we are all heading into a perfect storm. The us agri sector is borrowed to the hilt, most farmers across europe are barely scraping by and constantly fighting for scraps from one of the few necessities in life that is food.
We are either heading into a famine or we will all be feeding cattle for larry.
But sure it could be worse

carrollsno1

epfff wrote: »

200+ aint big in the present day.
I would say at double a full time employee wouldn't pay for themselves.

Whereas my mate works on a farm under 200 cows fulltime himself and the farmer, neither of them busted with work decent facilities and machinery a family reared and parents supported off the farm aswell. They even hsve a relief milker in to aboid working Sunday afternoons and he is paid handsomely too as its a Sunday.

Bullocks

K9 wrote: »

Main thing is to operate a system that suits you and your land. No point in always chasing the wheal. The wheal will always keep turning. If finishing your stock suits you and was profitable last few years keep doing it. If selling weanlings or stores suit you keep doing it etc.
No point in blaming Teagasc and farmers journal. Farmers have to take responsibility for their own decisions and farms

Thats true , there is no point chasing the system of a better farm putting work on yourself when the better farm still is making a meagre profit if any before BPS .

carrollsno1

148multi wrote: »

Agree fully, seen before the bse stock were on fire nothing could stop lads.
The swine flu could kill 250,000 pigs in China alone, its in Europe already, is the whole world going to live on chicken. Our problem is a combination of things, for one Teagasc, the government and Europe want to throw us under the bus, but won't say so. Look what happened in NZ with the sheep, when subs stopped ewe numbers fell but production increased. We have something like 950,000 sucklers but only 750,000 calves, that's a lot of dead weight. How many dairy farmers would keep a cow that wasn't milking. I see lads afraid to let cows out before calving, but it's one of the best things to do, helps with disease, milk output, and fertility.

Was discussing CAP payments with the farmer i worked for in New Zealand he said the "free money" sounds great but being told how to farm and when to farm sounds like hell.

Robson99

carrollsno1 wrote: »

Was discussing CAP payments with the farmer i worked for in New Zealand he said the "free money" sounds great but being told how to farm and when to farm sounds like hell.

You would sometimes wonder would we be as well of to tell Europe to **** off for itself and its regulations and do the UK on it, Irexit.
After all England is probably right pulling out. We are nothing in the Germans and French eyes

carrollsno1

Robson99 wrote: »

You would sometimes wonder would we be as well of to tell Europe to **** off for itself and its regulations and do the UK on it, Irexit.
After all England is probably right pulling out. We are nothing in the Germans and French eyes

Well its hard to know which is worse have the clowns in Dublin tell us what to do or the crowd in Europe telling us. The Irish government has no regard for Irish people anymore, im in Australia at the minute as a foreignor and the Queen of England has more time for us here than the Irish government ever had for us back home. Also the public here have respect for the farners too in the time of drought here last year pubs were running "parma for a farmer" one nightva week every chicken parma bought that night they send the price of it to the buy a bale fund, buy a bale had a collection box on most bar counters with most pubs donating 50c from every pint sold one night a week going into the fund aswell. When it was revealed milk was sold as a loss leader aswell and the farmers werent making any profit from the milk there was strong backlash from the public too.

Say my name

My own take on the future.

It'll be small producer groups. Groups that do their own thing and not be led by bdgp schemes or the next beef reduction handout. Groups that use their smarts and are led by passion for what they do. Groups that use the original low cost beef breeds native to this country and don't deviate for foreign systems. Groups that sell as one and have their own portable butchering facilities. Groups that restaurants would be falling over themselves to have on their menus. Groups that consumers recognize and actively look to buy their produce. Groups that promote their biodiversity and environmental production systems. Groups that decide themselves what age that animal will be slaughtered to have the ultimate taste quality.
People will still be part time but maybe enjoy the farming more.

There's my ...two cents.

Dinzee Conlee

Robson99 wrote: »

You would sometimes wonder would we be as well of to tell Europe to **** off for itself and its regulations and do the UK on it, Irexit.
After all England is probably right pulling out. We are nothing in the Germans and French eyes

And what’ll happen the dept of Ag boys and girls?
They’re not going to disappear with the the euro, and I don’t see them re-writing the rule book... so we’ll just be in the ****, no SFP and the same rules...