What are your thoughts on the economy?

SirGerryAdams

Seems to be flying along great here in Ireland. But no rate hike from the ECB and they're offering to pay banks to lend money.

Are things not so good in Europe?

Often talk of a recession in 2019/2020. Are you expecting one?

sbsquarepants

Boom follows bust follows boom. Nobody really knows why.

Economists are the crystal ball readers of science, every once in a while one of them will get something right and be hailed as the messiah, but their next "prediction" is invariably bollox.

Of course after the fact they all know exactly what happened and how obvious it was if anyone had just looked:rolleyes:

As the old joke goes an economist is someone who can tell you tomorrow exactly why what they predicted yesterday didn't happen.

corner of hells

SirGerryAdams wrote: »

Seems to be flying along great here in Ireland. But no rate hike from the ECB and they're offering to pay banks to lend money.

Are things not so good in Europe?

Often talk of a recession in 2019/2020. Are you expecting one?

Are you really Gerry Adams?

sbsquarepants

corner of hells wrote: »

Are you really Gerry Adams?

You've changed Gerry, cookbooks, knighthoods....Martin must be spinning in his grave:mad:

Xodar

It is inevitable. The only thing that is within our control is how we act during 'boom' times and respond to crashes.

Unfortunately it would appear, in Ireland, that we have learned absolutely nothing form the last two cycles.

Just looking at the Dublin skyline and there are over 120 cranes which (afaik) is almost double that of which was seen during the Tiger. This in itself may not be an indicator but coupled with other occurances (for me) points to a crash.

IMO, there is a another downturn coming and people on the island of Ireland are blind to it.

Cina

Xodar wrote: »

It is inevitable. The only thing that is within our control is how we act during 'boom' times and respond to crashes.

Unfortunately it would appear, in Ireland, that we have learned absolutely nothing form the last two cycles.

Just looking at the Dublin skyline and there are over 120 cranes which (afaik) is almost double that of which was seen during the Tiger. This in itself may not be an indicator but coupled with other occurances (for me) points to a crash.

IMO, there is a another downturn coming and people on the island of Ireland are blind to it.

They're building in Dublin because there's not enough commercial space nor housing to meet the demand there right now, so I'm not sure what else they're supposed to do. Supply needs to meet demand. I don't think building loads in a rapidly expanding city like Dublin is a sign of a crash happening. It only took 2 or 3 years after the crash for Dublin to be back at a stage where it was difficult to find accommodation and office space again.

Rural Ireland is the problem. Still loads of abandoned apartments and housing from the boom out there and yet we're building loads more. Smaller cities like Cork and Galway becoming almost as expensive as Dublin despite having none of the pull Dublin does.

If there's another crash I'd say Dublin will be fine (again) and the rest of the country will be f*cked (again).

The problem is that right now there's far too much focus from countries on the economy i.e. GDP increasing year on year, instead of actually tackling the issues at home like lack of housing, carbon emissions, better transport infrastructure etc. We waste all the money we get from the boom years on silly things and no doubt once the crash happens again the Metrolink will probably be abandoned as well as loads of other projects, without us having paid off any of our massive foreign debt.

But hey it was worth it cause the boyos on the dole and pension got their extra fiver a week and we built the world's most expensive children's hospital.

Mad_maxx

SirGerryAdams wrote: »

Seems to be flying along great here in Ireland. But no rate hike from the ECB and they're offering to pay banks to lend money.

Are things not so good in Europe?

Often talk of a recession in 2019/2020. Are you expecting one?

Eurozone economy has been somewhere between awful and mediocre for twenty years

kneemos

4.4 % unemployment, what's not to like?

BIGT4464

Economy is fine, its the Government coffers I worry about. They are just too loose with our money, public sector pay is ballooning, they just caved in to the guards and nurses so easliy, who is next? , the new hospital, rural BB ect. If we need to spend spend on one off items not recurring costs, Metro, M20, Dart Underground instead.

Deebles McBeebles

SirGerryAdams wrote: »

Often talk of a recession in 2019/2020. Are you expecting one?

Not expecting, Gerry, hoping for one.

randomrb

There is one solution to reversing the boom bust cycle and that is to cut state spending to the bone when things are going well and spend heavily when it is not however this will never happen because as soon as things are going well people demand more money being spent

kneemos

randomrb wrote: »

There is one solution to reversing the boom bust cycle and that is to cut state spending to the bone when things are going well and spend heavily when it is not however this will never happen because as soon as things are going well people demand more money being spent

Don't think state spending would do much for a recession.
They're usually the result of a global downturn.

Should have been building houses during the last recession though. They we're warned about shortages, development became a dirty word though.

randomrb

kneemos wrote: »

Don't think state spending would do much for a recession.
They're usually the result of a global downturn.

Should have been building houses during the last recession though. They we're warned about shortages, development became a dirty word though.

They are but this is how you minimise its effect, you save money when times are good and then pump it into the economy when times are bad.

If you run big infrastructure and development projects in a recession you have a guaranteed workforce, reduced costs compared to now and a boost to jobs in the areas that are most susceptible to recession

Thelonious Monk

Economic growth and GDP can't be what societies are based on, it's not sustainable. There must be another way!

The economy seems to do well unemployment is very low less that 5%.

If it was raining gold you would still get people complaining...my family never saw the celtic tiger etc, plus the what about rural Ireland type we never had the celtic tiger here or the there are jobs but they are all low paid.

facehugger99

BIGT4464 wrote: »

Economy is fine, its the Government coffers I worry about. They are just too loose with our money, public sector pay is ballooning, they just caved in to the guards and nurses so easliy, who is next? , the new hospital, rural BB ect. If we need to spend spend on one off items not recurring costs, Metro, M20, Dart Underground instead.

The Govt. should be throttling back on spending in a boom and pumping money into the economy during a recession.

Unfortunately short-term political pressures and public sector greed ensures that the opposite actually happens.

ChikiChiki

BIGT4464 wrote: »

Economy is fine, its the Government coffers I worry about. They are just too loose with our money, public sector pay is ballooning, they just caved in to the guards and nurses so easliy, who is next? , the new hospital, rural BB ect. If we need to spend spend on one off items not recurring costs, Metro, M20, Dart Underground instead.

We would have some lifestyle if the government learned how to manage taxpayer funds properly. I always think that we are so close to becoming a really top top country for living standards only for planning and waste of taxpayer funds holding us back.

SEPT 23 1989

SirGerryAdams wrote: »

Often talk of a recession in 2019/2020. Are you expecting one?

I think it has already started unfortunately

really hope I am wrong

ChikiChiki

ChikiChiki wrote: »

We would have some lifestyle if the government learned how to manage taxpayer funds properly. I always think that we are so close to becoming a really top top country for living standards only for planning and waste of taxpayer funds holding us back.

Paschal Donohue announced a €500m contribution to a rainy day fund in last year's budget as if it was a huge gesture by the state. In reality that's like a citizen saving a couple of grand each year. And it will probably be dipped into to fund the NCH or Rural BB.

randomrb

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

I think it has already started unfortunately

really hope I am wrong

based on what?

LuasSimon

Are we still not borrowing money as a country ??

What about the Public sector pensions timebomb ?

christy c

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

I think it has already started unfortunately

really hope I am wrong

Not sure if it is starting or not but we're creating the same problems as last time (increasing spending, reducing tax base), so when the next recession hits we'll have the same problem of trying to get them back in to equilibrium.

Mad_maxx

ChikiChiki wrote: »

We would have some lifestyle if the government learned how to manage taxpayer funds properly. I always think that we are so close to becoming a really top top country for living standards only for planning and waste of taxpayer funds holding us back.

Much of the population abhor fiscal prudence by government

Samuel T. Cogley

kneemos wrote: »

4.4 % unemployment, what's not to like?

The 4.4% sponging ****.

enricoh

downtheroad wrote: »

Paschal Donohue announced a €500m contribution to a rainy day fund in last year's budget as if it was a huge gesture by the state. In reality that's like a citizen saving a couple of grand each year. And it will probably be dipped into to fund the NCH or Rural BB.

Total government expenditure last year 74 billion, total saved 500 million. Rainy day fund would run the country for 2 n a bit days!
Spend the 500 million on a few more foreva homes paschal! No votes in this saving money lark!

Geuze

LuasSimon wrote: »

Are we still not borrowing money as a country ??

What about the Public sector pensions timebomb ?

The fiscal deficit has fallen, but yes, the Govt borrowed

830m in 2017

50m in 2018, i.e. basically a balanced budget

Geuze

LuasSimon wrote: »

What about the Public sector pensions timebomb ?

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-eipl/eipl2015/eipl/

2015 data = 345.5 bn of unfunded liabilities, of which:

State pension = 231 bn

PS pensions = 114.5 bn

Geuze

SirGerryAdams wrote: »

Are things not so good in Europe?

Often talk of a recession in 2019/2020. Are you expecting one?

Bond yield spreads are indicating a slowdown in the USA, yes.

Yes, there is a slowdown in Europe.

Jimbob1977

We are very, very dependent on Foreign Direct Investment.

One sharp shock (Brexit or a US tariff war) could devastate our economy.

While we are not as indebted as the Celtic Tiger era, sudden unemployment would put many people in a big financial hole.

Turtyturd

Xodar wrote: »

It is inevitable. The only thing that is within our control is how we act during 'boom' times and respond to crashes.

Unfortunately it would appear, in Ireland, that we have learned absolutely nothing form the last two cycles.

Just looking at the Dublin skyline and there are over 120 cranes which (afaik) is almost double that of which was seen during the Tiger. This in itself may not be an indicator but coupled with other occurances (for me) points to a crash.

IMO, there is a another downturn coming and people on the island of Ireland are blind to it.

€6.20 for a chicken fillet roll being the main one.

James Brown

SirGerryAdams wrote: »

Seems to be flying along great here in Ireland. But no rate hike from the ECB and they're offering to pay banks to lend money.

Are things not so good in Europe?

Often talk of a recession in 2019/2020. Are you expecting one?

The economy means some people are doing very very well. It's not a good gauge on how society is doing. For example you can be working full time but depending on hand outs off the tax payer towards rent.
The way I see it is FF/FG find ways to make as much money as they can for them and theirs until the arse falls out and they accuse the public, who maybe took a few holidays or ran up credit as partying too much or going mad.
There will be a crash. The economy is a ponzi scheme waiting to topple.

Kermit.de.frog

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

The 4.4% sponging ****.

Currently 20,000 unfilled vacancies as well.

kneemos

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Currently 20,000 unfilled vacancies as well.

The real spongers are probably on disability and don't count as unemployed.
The 4.4% are more or less genuine I'd imagine.

topper75

kneemos wrote: »

Should have been building houses during the last recession though.

Impossible for any govt in Ireland in the 2008/2013 period. They would have been thrown out on their ear in the morning by the Irish electorate. You forget the volume of news coverage on ghost estates in those times.

I would like to see the subject of macroeconomics taught on a mandatory basis, for at least one year, in the Irish second-level curriculum. It could be built into a mandatory Business subject. State finances are complicated but how can people meaningfully cast a vote in elections without a rudimentary knowledge of such matters. If we don't do this, the painful horrid pantomime will rage on boom after bust after boom after bust...

topper75

Geuze wrote: »

Bond yield spreads are indicating a slowdown in the USA, yes.

Yes, there is a slowdown in Europe.

The falloff is global trade seems to be hitting all the big economies including, and probably especially, Brazil, Russia, India, China - the nations who were supposed to pull us out of the last recession:

facehugger99

Any Government who attempted to manage the economy in a vaguely prudent manner would be turfed out at the earliest opportunity and populist charlatans would be carried shoulder-high into office.

enricoh

enricoh wrote: »

Total government expenditure last year 74 billion, total saved 500 million. Rainy day fund would run the country for 2 n a bit days!
Spend the 500 million on a few more foreva homes paschal! No votes in this saving money lark!

0.68% saved. Imagine doing that with your own money. Central Bank dont even encourage it seeing as their policy requires people to save 10% for a deposit on a house. Maybe Central Bank should encourage Dept. of Finance to save more prudently.

Kermit.de.frog

kneemos wrote: »

The real spongers are probably on disability and don't count as unemployed.
The 4.4% are more or less genuine I'd imagine.

Also not all jobs will be in the right areas or suitable for some to be fair.

However, surely now is the time to start asking question of long term claimants particularly in Dublin/Cork and helping them or being a little tougher if they are not making serious efforts.

There are plenty of jobs going unfilled. It can't be right that people are allowed to just languish (even if it is a smallish number) on the dole while there are jobs. It's better for them and society that they get in to employment.

KungPao

I think it’s pretty clear what we need to do, shave half a percent off the interest rate, shore up the Euro, keep VAT steady for now, and round up all the dwarfs.

randomrb

facehugger99 wrote: »

Any Government who attempted to manage the economy in a vaguely prudent manner would be turfed out at the earliest opportunity and populist charlatans would be carried shoulder-high into office.

That in a sentence is why every government acts the way it does. People say they want fiscally sensible policies but vote very differently

Kermit.de.frog

Also it appears memories are fading of the mismanagement of Fianna Fáil and the disaster they led us in to.

Cina

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Also it appears memories are fading of the mismanagement of Fianna Fáil and the disaster they led us in to.

They led us into a disaster but at least they built motorways and public transport lines during the boom times. They actually spent the money (we admittedly didn't really have) on long-term projects as well as short term gains.

Our current government aren't building anything and are still leading us down the same f*cking path with nothing to show for it except an overpriced kid's hospital, if it ever even gets built.

KSU

downtheroad wrote: »

Paschal Donohue announced a €500m contribution to a rainy day fund in last year's budget as if it was a huge gesture by the state. In reality that's like a citizen saving a couple of grand each year. And it will probably be dipped into to fund the NCH or Rural BB.

Did they ever restore the 2.3bn into the private pension fund they used for the last "rainy day fund"?

InTheShadows

kneemos wrote: »

4.4 % unemployment, what's not to like?

Eh high rents, unattainable mortgages, laughable justice system, health and car insurance prices, 2 hr work commutes etc... Oh and don't get me started on the health "service".

Yeah its great everyone having work but what's the point if virtually everything else in the country is completely broken?

Cina

InTheShadows wrote: »

Eh high rents, unattainable mortgages, laughable justice system, health and car insurance prices, 2 hr work commutes etc... Oh and don't get me started on the health "service".

Yeah its great everyone having work but what's the point if virtually everything else in the country is completely broken?

First world problems.

Ireland is a better place to live than about 90% of the planet.

Could be worse y'know.

InTheShadows

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Also it appears memories are fading of the mismanagement of Fianna Fáil and the disaster they led us in to.

FF = Thick feckers

FG = Thick arrogant feckers

Its bloody depressing looking at the absolute cut of politics in this country.

blackwhite

topper75 wrote: »

The falloff is global trade seems to be hitting all the big economies including, and probably especially, Brazil, Russia, India, China - the nations who were supposed to pull us out of the last recession:

https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i0MGmPZxbTDQ/v1/-1x-1.png

Global trade is being heavily impacted by the uncertainty surrounding Trump's seeming desire to instigate trade wars with many of the USA's biggest trading partners.
He's pushing policies he thinks will help certain industries - like steel-workers - where he won huge support in 2016, but is either ignoring (or doesn't understand) the negative impacts that those same policies will have on other, often larger and more important, industries within the USA.

Brexit uncertainty is impacting also - albeit on a more localised scale in Western Europe - in particular in terms of consumer and SME spending. People and businesses are less willing to commit to capital expenditure or to bigger-ticket items at present, due to fears about how things might look in 12-24 months time.

Ireland remains hugely tied into the global economy, so a continued slowdown globally will impact here sooner rather than later. If globally things start to improve before the end of 2019 then we might be spared much impact. But if not then I'd expect to see a slowdown here too.

LuasSimon

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

The 4.4% sponging ****.

What percentage of the 4.4% are travellers ?

JohnnyFlash

Has any looper suggested communism yet as an alternative economic model?

KSU

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

The 4.4% sponging ****.

Alot more than that. Large portion of people are paying negative taxation in this country (i.e getting more out of the system than they put in)

Ipso

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Has any looper suggested communism yet as an alternative economic model?

Shur the main man himself praised the leader of paradise itself after he died. Must be a great place, especially with all the Irish that emigrated there.