Epsom Oaks - 2019

The Tetrarch

The words below are from the book The Oaks Stakes, The History – The Winners, Their Breeding 1779-2015 by Michael Church (Raceform).

Foreword
It seems extraordinary that the Oaks – older sister of the Derby – should have been run 237 times before anyone got around to providing a chronicle of its history. In the 21st century such neglect could only be regarded as sexist, so Michael Church is to be congratulated for rectifying a shameful omission in the literature of the Turf.
The Oaks was inaugurated in the year before the Derby, and had been contested at a mile and a half five times before the distance of the Derby was increased from a mile. If those early editions of the Oaks had not proved so successful, leading to that significant 1784 change to the Derby, we may be sure that the thoroughbred would have developed differently.
When other countries came to establish their counterparts of England’s premier test for three-year-olds, they naturally set them at a mile and a half, the distance pioneered in the Oaks and emulated in the Derby. The breed has been built on what started when Bridget triumphed in the inaugural Oaks on 14 May 1779.
There was still no adequate definition of the term ‘thoroughbred’ when horsemen recognised a difference between what the average horse and the average mare might achieve in competition. The assumption persists, an allowance is generally granted to the so-called weaker sex, so the colt tends to have a higher profile than the filly, just as the Derby tends to have a higher profile than the Oaks.
But that is why we relish those comparatively rare events when the female of the species proves more deadly than the male. It is the Oaks, more than any other race, which identifies the special filly who may earn the right to challenge the colts and sometimes put them in their place. The stories of many are told here, from Queen of Trumps to Taghrooda, including the pair I’ve idolised since childhood, Sceptre and Pretty Polly.
Tony Morris, Newmarket, July 2015

Introduction (extract)
A few years after my book, The Derby Stakes – The Complete History – 1780-2006, was published, Rupert Trevelyan, the Regional Director of London racecourses, asked me if I would follow it up with the history of the Oaks.
“It’s very unlikely,” I replied, “the Derby book took me four years to write and was expensive to produce. The information and stories surrounding the Oaks are not so plentiful and the sales would likely be a lot less.”
And that’s how it was left.
Three years ago my oldest daughter, Sarah, was married and with her husband, Jim Gooden, bought a substantial property, near Guildford called The Oaks. Thinking I would never write another book, my attention turned to compiling an Oaks chart – a male lineage chart, showing all the winners and their descendents, to frame and hang in their hall.
Over the next year, I worked on this and when it started to take shape I proposed it to Julian Brown, publishing manager of Raceform.
“No, I don’t think so,” replied the voice of experience, “But we would consider the history of the Oaks as a limited edition, say, about half the size of your Derby tome.”
Looking back to Lord Derby’s party in 1778, when the Oaks was but an acorn, General Burgoyne’s suggestion of a game-changing race, was to evolve into a Classic copied across the world.
Michael Church, July 2015

The Tetrarch

The Oaks is my favourite race.
It does not get as much analysis as the Derby.
The distance is slightly longer as the rail is always moved out, and is a real stamina test for fillies.

My choice is Lavender's Blue trained by Amanda Perrett at 22s.

The Tetrarch

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Maid_of_the_Oaks

The Oaks, which gave its name to the Oaks Stakes run at the Epsom Downs races each year in early June, was demolished in the 1950s.
The gardens and some of the remaining outbuildings form part of Oaks Park (London). https://www.google.ie/maps/@51.3347348,-0.1706363,3a,75y,5.87h,90t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sY3B2V2V25-QbNHvvbOoF6Q!2e0!6s%2F%2Fgeo3.ggpht.com%2Fcbk%3Fpanoid%3DY3B2V2V25-QbNHvvbOoF6Q%26output%3Dthumbnail%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26thumb%3D2%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D75.669495%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i16384!8i8192

IAMAMORON

Me too. 10 pt investment.

I like the favourite Medaayih. She looked really smart at Chester, especially the way she meandered through the field from a really bad pozy. No ground worries as she has firm ground form. 6 pts win. Hopefully her price drifts a bit.

I also like Anapurna, looked good in her trial and Detorri is always a plus. 2 pts win only saver.

I think Iridessa at 33/1 will definitely get a 1pt ew. Has one a group one over a mile and I don't think the apple falls too far from the tree. This could well be the plan all along. The same owners as Qualify who won this a few years ago.

I respect that the top two picks are Frankel fillies. At some point he is going to possibly sire the winner of these classics. He won't get a better chance to break his duck on Friday.

The Tetrarch

The Oaks antepost market is suspended on Betfair at the moment.
That probably means their is an Oaks declaration at 11:00 (?).
I have a bet on Iridessa but as she ran in the Irish 1000 Guineas on Sunday I doubt she will go to Epsom, and I have mentally torn up the bet.

Yes, although the market is suspended my bet on Iridessa is at odds of 1.00 i.e. not running. My bet on Lavender's Blue is still there at 22.17.

Mostly Harmless

The Tetrarch wrote: »

The Oaks antepost market is suspended on Betfair at the moment.
That probably means their is an Oaks declaration at 11:00 (?).
I have a bet on Iridessa but as she ran in the Irish 1000 Guineas on Sunday I doubt she will go to Epsom, and I have mentally torn up the bet.

Yes, although the market is suspended my bet on Iridessa is at odds of 1.00 i.e. not running. My bet on Lavender's Blue is still there at 22.17.

Yeah declarations done. Iridessa and Hermosa only two defectors.


The apparent level of confidence around Pink Dogwood seems ominous to me.

The Tetrarch

Hermosa and Iridessa – who both ran in the Irish 1,000 Guineas on Sunday – are the only two fillies not to be declared for the race.

Oaks final field, 14 runners:
Anapurna; Blue Gardenia; Delphina; Fleeting; Frankellina; Lavender's Blue; Manuela De Vega; Maqsad; Meydaayih; Peach Tree; Pink Dogwood; Sh Boom; Tarnawa; Tauteke

The Tetrarch

I think it must be firm ground at Epsom.
"30C scorcher to make Britain hotter than Ibiza this weekend before cool snap." The Sun

The Tetrarch

A few of you might know I analyse pedigree, and have written programs to do that quickly and in volume.
It is a work in progress, with version two half done.
An extract from the results counts "colt factors" and "filly factors".
There are a maximum of four colt and four filly factors.
A really good planned pedigree (i.e. before mating and before the foal sex is known) would have four colt and four filly factors in the planned foal.
That way it could be a good colt or a good filly.

Yesterday I analysed the Derby and Oaks fields automatically.
There are no stand out pedigrees.

Oaks field

Name……………………..Filly…C+F
Anapurna……………..….0…..0
Blue Gardenia……………0…..2
Delphinia…………………..1…..1
Fleeting……………….…..2…..3
Frankellina…………..……2…..2
Lavender'S Blue…….….2…..4
Manuela De Vega………0…..0
Maqsad………………..…..2…..2
Mehdaayih………………..1…..1
Peach Tree……………….2…..2
Pink Dogwood……………0…..0
Sh Boom…………………..2…..3
Tarnawa…………………..0…..2
Tauteke…………………..0…..2

(you want as many filly factors as possible)
Filly = filly factors (4 is max)
C+F = colt factors+filly factors (8 is max)

I would not be too confident applying what I learned from 150,000+ pedigrees to a single horse.
Horses make fools of people all the time.

akelly02

youd have to fancy haggas filly there at the prices. looks really classy

The Tetrarch

How did the Oaks field do in Group or Listed races?

Amazingly only two won a Group race (2 fillies) (as far as I can see) :
Fleeting (Group 3) (and in 2019 was 15th of 15 in the English 1000 Guineas.)
Tarnawa (Group 3)

These have won a Listed race (7 fillies):
Anapurna; Blue Gardenia; Manuela De Vega; Maqsad; Mehdaayih; Peach Tree; Pink Dogwood.

These have not won a group or Listed race (5 fillies):
Delphinia; Frankellina; Lavender's Blue; Sh Boom; Tauteke.

The Group race and Listed race winners only won once at that level.
Perhaps I have made a mistake in the lists above.

This looks like a very weak Oaks field with no multiple Group race winners, no Group 2 winners, no Group 1 winners.

PhuckHugh22

The Tetrarch wrote: »

How did the Oaks field do in Group or Listed races?

Amazingly only two won a Group race (2 fillies) (as far as I can see) :
Fleeting (Group 3) (and in 2019 was 15th of 15 in the English 1000 Guineas.)
Tarnawa (Group 3)

These have won a Listed race (7 fillies):
Anapurna; Blue Gardenia; Manuela De Vega; Maqsad; Mehdaayih; Peach Tree; Pink Dogwood.

These have not won a group or Listed race (5 fillies):
Delphinia; Frankellina; Lavender's Blue; Sh Boom; Tauteke.

The Group race and Listed race winners only won once at that level.
Perhaps I have made a mistake in the lists above.

This looks like a very weak Oaks field with no multiple Group race winners, no Group 2 winners, no Group 1 winners.

FYI the May Hill is a Group 2 not a Group 3 which Fleeting won last year.

Also i wouldnt be too worried about number of group winners in the field at this stage of the year. The Fillies 2yo race calendar is hardly awash with races for middle distance fillies and there are minimal early season races worth taking in for Oaks fillies IMO.
Historically from this point on you really see the good fillies grow and progress and i would be wary to make a judgement call on the crop before Friday and probably Ascot tbh.

Enable had only won a Listed race prior to hacking up in the Oaks beating. Granted that was not a vintage renewal apart from the winner.

The Tetrarch

PhuckHugh22 wrote: »

FYI the May Hill is a Group 2 not a Group 3 which Fleeting won last year.

Sorry. I actually listed her in the G2 column in my spreadsheet when I was giving points for Group wins and winning lengths, but misread when I was writing the summary.

PhuckHugh22

The Tetrarch wrote: »

Sorry. I actually listed her in the G2 column in my spreadsheet when I was giving points for Group wins and winning lengths, but misread when I was writing the summary.

Well it used to be a Group 3 up until about 10 or so years ago.

IAMAMORON

Any thoughts on Dermot Weld's entry ?

PhuckHugh22

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Any thoughts on Dermot Weld's entry ?

Would be surprised if she could turn around the form with Pink Dogwood myself. Has 2 lengths to find and you would imagine Pink dogwood will definitely improve for that run

Mostly Harmless

The Coolmore brigade just seem certain that Pink Dogwood is their one for the Oaks this year and haven't bothered targeting trials which seems very ominous like I said - could not back her at the price on all known form but also hard to go against her with a great deal of confidence which makes it a tough race to have a bet in for me.

The Tetrarch

Pink Dogwood is a full-sibling of Irish Derby winner Latrobe.
Latrobe has not been writing headlines, a maiden win and an Irish Derby in June 2018. Outside that no win in 9 races.
As said above, Pink Dogwood's price of 9/4 is unattractive for what she has shown publicly.

IAMAMORON

The Tetrarch wrote: »

I think it must be firm ground at Epsom.
"30C scorcher to make Britain hotter than Ibiza this weekend before cool snap." The Sun

The Sun are full of boo boo, all the time. Anything for a headline.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/leatherhead/kt22-7/weather-forecast/325874

Raining now and tomorrow morning.

del roy

4.30 – Investec Oaks (Group 1) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m4f


17/17 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
14/17 – Horses from stall 1 that were unplaced
14/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/17 – Won from stall 5 or higher
11/17 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
11/17 – Favourites that were placed
9/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Won by the favourite (1 joint)
5/17 – Returned a double-figure price
5/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
5/17 – Irish-trained winners
4/17 – Ran in the English 1,000 Guineas
2/17 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/17 – Trained by John Gosden
2/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
0/17 – Had run at the course before
0/17 – Had run over 1m4f before
7 of the last 12 favourites were unplaced
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race 7 times
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 12/1

Kazzia (2002) and Minding (2016) were the last horses to win both the 1,000 Guineas and Epsom Oaks
The horse from stall 2 has been placed in 7 of the last 15 runnings

TQ VERDICT: Trainer Aidan O’Brien will be eyeing up another Epsom Oaks win – he’s won it seven times in total. He’s got four in the field but his Pink Dogwood is their main hope. This 3 year-old has been all the rage for this after her easy Listed win at Navan last time out and now stepping up in trip looks sure to progress again. Breeding suggests he wants this trip and it will be a shock if he’s not involved. However, there looks to be some strong opposition too. The Haggas runner Maqsad was an easy winner of the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes at HQ last time over 1m2f and can go well if getting the longer trip, while the Gosden yard have a good shout too with Anapurna and MEHDAAYIH in the race. The former landed the Oaks trial at Lingfield by an easy 6 lengths and based on that will be popular. However, I was more taken with the manner of Mehdaayih’s win at Chester in the Cheshire Oaks. She travelled well that day and showed a good turn-of-foot to win by just over 4 lengths and should have more to come. She showed that day she can handle a unique track and is also one of the few in the race that is proven over this sort of trip – that win was over 1m3 1/2 f. Of the rest, you can’t totally rule out the other O’Brien runners – Peach Tree, Fleeting and Delphina – as they’ve won this race with big-priced runners in the past. Manuela De Vega is another to consider as she comes from the Beckett yard that have done well in the race in recent years too. While it’s interesting that the shrewd Dermot Weld yard send over TARBAWA (e/w). She’s won two of her last three races and could have more to offer now upped in trip. She was only 1 ¾ lengths behind Pink Dogwood two runs ago but looks to have improved from that after winning well at Naas since. She’s a much bigger price and actually doesn’t have much to find on the official ratings with the main players.

Anyone wants to run thru the dosage ?

https://www.pedigreequery.com/

IAMAMORON

I am keeping my original selections. I am replacing Iridessa with the Dermot Weld Filly. He wouldn't bother if he thought she had no chance. 1 pt ew Tarnawa.

WicklowBrave

This is a poor Oaks. Literally had never even heard of some of these fillies running. The Coronation Cup a more interesting race.

Slattsy

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I am keeping my original selections. I am replacing Iridessa with the Dermot Weld Filly. He wouldn't bother if he thought she had no chance. 1 pt ew Tarnawa.

Thats not keeping your original selections!! :pac:

All aboard the Pink Dogwood train - MH knows. On at 9/2. This gal pulling up trees at home :cool:

9/4 a bit mental though truth be told.

Mostly Harmless

Slattsy wrote: »

Thats not keeping your original selections!! :pac:

All aboard the Pink Dogwood train - MH knows. On at 9/2. This gal pulling up trees at home :cool:

9/4 a bit mental though truth be told.

Wish I did know, employed my usual ante post betting strategy of looking at a price a few months before race and thinking it was too big but not betting it and then watching it get smaller and smaller as date approaches :rolleyes:

Slattsy

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Wish I did know, employed my usual ante post betting strategy of looking at a price a few months before race and thinking it was too big but not betting it and then watching it get smaller and smaller as date approaches :rolleyes:

Tbh, i noticed they werent firing anything else at the race so that spoke volumes. only pulled the trigger a few weeks back. Did not think it'd be near fav though.

PhuckHugh22

I have lost count of the amount of years in a row we hear. The 3yo's are no good.
Every year without fail we get that beauty. They can't be no good every year.

There are a fair few unexposed types in there that could be anything at this stage.

PhuckHugh22

Really can't get a handle on anything in this race at the prices.
Will probably take a swing at something at a wild price.
Possibly Peach Tree at 50/1. I like her profile all be it she has a good 10lbs or so to find.

HarshOstrich

Interested in annapurna but i have a feeling she might want even further, i have her in mind for the st ledger.

madmoose

Backed two for this;

Frankellina - 16/1 -2nd in the Musedora on only it’s second run and ran a cracker having lost 3L at the start. The inexperience may catch her out but i’m willing to chance it as it could be anything the more we see it run.

Blue Gardenia - 100/1, 4 places ew - Was around 2L behind Frankellina in 5th at York and although looks exposed it didn’t run too bad there seeing it got short of room at one stage, at the prices and 4 places ill take a small chance!

tryfix

The Frankel fillies make the market, there's a strong probability that they won't improve much on their trial runs so I'm happy to ignore them.

Maqsad is the one for me, a nice price, an impressive win last time out, a classy trainer and there's Gallileo as the broodmare sire putting in the stamina to complement the miler speed of Siyouni.

Pink Dogwood scares the bejayus out of me, it's like they knew this is the Oaks winner before she ever hit the track.

IAMAMORON

PhuckHugh22 wrote: »

I have lost count of the amount of years in a row we hear. The 3yo's are no good.
Every year without fail we get that beauty. They can't be no good every year.

There are a fair few unexposed types in there that could be anything at this stage.

This.

The Tetrarch

The Racing Post Predictor says
1. Anapurna 6/1
2. Tauteke 50/1
3. Mehdaayih 3/1

Andrew00

Never back anything in this.

Fillies are too unpredictable

Mgoraf

Do the Frankels generally not handle Epsom too well or am I imagining it?

Pink dogwood becoming very backable now

Slattsy

Small each way bet on Welds Tarnawa. 25s fair.

Is tough and will relish the extra distance. Not far of PD in previous run either so not without a chance.

realdanbreen

Manuela de vega @ 11-1 is the value bet in this race.

akelly02

I think haggas filly has a great chance . Serious value

PhuckHugh22

PhuckHugh22 wrote: »

Really can't get a handle on anything in this race at the prices.
Will probably take a swing at something at a wild price.
Possibly Peach Tree at 50/1. I like her profile all be it she has a good 10lbs or so to find.

Was tempted to reasess and possibly have another bet the morning of the race but happy enough with this. So think i will just leave it at that.

Mostly Harmless

Tried pricing it up last night, made Annapurna and Tauteke overs. EW bets on both but nothing major.

del roy

Slattsy wrote: »

Small each way bet on Welds Tarnawa. 25s fair.

Is tough and will relish the extra distance. Not far of PD in previous run either so not without a chance.

Slattsy
can't remember where I read it but something along the lines of
SHAMAADAL offspring having a terrible record beyond 1m2f, I maybe wrong but fancied it myself until I realised it was a SHAMADAL.

However the racingpost seem to think the extra distance will be no problem, below is their reading of the G3 race she won at Naas.

A fine finish to this contest, and the winner could well have earned herself a place in the field for the Investec Oaks.

TARNAWA was game and stepping up to 1m4f should not cause her any difficulties and she should improve for it. Settled quite close to a reasonable pace, she was close enough to be able to cover the move made by the favourite early in the straight, and really responded well to pressure to get her head in front close home. She did her best work when meeting the rising ground. She would not look out of place in an open field for the Oaks.

Slattsy

del roy wrote: »

Slattsy
can't remember where I read it but something along the lines of
SHAMAADAL offspring having a terrible record beyond 1m2f, I maybe wrong but fancied it myself until I realised it was a SHAMADAL.

However the racingpost seem to think the extra distance will be no problem, below is their reading of the G3 race she won at Naas.

A fine finish to this contest, and the winner could well have earned herself a place in the field for the Investec Oaks.

TARNAWA was game and stepping up to 1m4f should not cause her any difficulties and she should improve for it. Settled quite close to a reasonable pace, she was close enough to be able to cover the move made by the favourite early in the straight, and really responded well to pressure to get her head in front close home. She did her best work when meeting the rising ground. She would not look out of place in an open field for the Oaks.

I watched her last race with interest as I was on the fav and she just outstayed her. Under pressure a fair bit out but kept going. I liked that run. 5er each way!

IAMAMORON

Paddy Power are paying 4 places.

longshotvalue

Epson Oaks

Fleeting has caught my eye here. She is sure to be hugely improved from her seasonal debut . I loved her win in the May hill and also she looked like a stayer behind Just Wonderful in the Flame of Tara

2 Points EW 50/1 5 places sky, 40/1 4 places elsewhere

IAMAMORON

I am doing what's left of my head in over the Coronation Cup.

Kew Gardens - Can't really have him after the last race at Chester. Despite the ground and the poor ride from Moore it does look like he spat the dummy a bit. His price is drifty enough for a Coolmore fancy also.

Old Persian - I am dubious about his Dubai form insofar that although he won twice I think they are on the saucy cabbage down there, particularly Godolphin horses.

Lah Ti Dar - She is drifting this morning. It could turn out that she is a really good group 2 horse, they don't win group 1's though.

Salouen - No Group 1 win either. Although if you take the line that Cracksman was above average there is an argument that he has some of the best form in the race.

Morando - Great last time but everyone says won't like good ground.

The rest don't look like Group 1 winners, Communique has improved again but will need to improve another half stone at least to take this.

After all that I am going to have a bet on Lah Ti Dar. She won last time, gets the mares allowance. Maybe this is her time.

akelly02

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I am doing what's left of my head in over the Coronation Cup.

Kew Gardens - Can't really have him after the last race at Chester. Despite the ground and the poor ride from Moore it does look like he spat the dummy a bit. His price is drifty enough for a Coolmore fancy also.

Old Persian - I am dubious about his Dubai form insofar that although he won twice I think they are on the saucy cabbage down there, particularly Godolphin horses.

Lah Ti Dar - She is drifting this morning. It could turn out that she is a really good group 2 horse, they don't win group 1's though.

Salouen - No Group 1 win either. Although if you take the line that Cracksman was above average there is an argument that he has some of the best form in the race.

Morando - Great last time but everyone says won't like good ground.

The rest don't look like Group 1 winners, Communique has improved again but will need to improve another half stone at least to take this.

After all that I am going to have a bet on Lah Ti Dar. She won last time, gets the mares allowance. Maybe this is her time.

i fancy persian myself. fewest question marks. dont think lah ti dar is genuine

IAMAMORON

akelly02 wrote: »

i fancy persian myself. fewest question marks. dont think lah ti dar is genuine

Yes, no argument here. Has every chance.

realdanbreen

akelly02 wrote: »

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I am doing what's left of my head in over the Coronation Cup.

Kew Gardens - Can't really have him after the last race at Chester. Despite the ground and the poor ride from Moore it does look like he spat the dummy a bit. His price is drifty enough for a Coolmore fancy also.

Old Persian - I am dubious about his Dubai form insofar that although he won twice I think they are on the saucy cabbage down there, particularly Godolphin horses.

Lah Ti Dar - She is drifting this morning. It could turn out that she is a really good group 2 horse, they don't win group 1's though.

Salouen - No Group 1 win either. Although if you take the line that Cracksman was above average there is an argument that he has some of the best form in the race.

Morando - Great last time but everyone says won't like good ground.

The rest don't look like Group 1 winners, Communique has improved again but will need to improve another half stone at least to take this.

After all that I am going to have a bet on Lah Ti Dar. She won last time, gets the mares allowance. Maybe this is her time.

i fancy persian myself. fewest question marks. dont think lah ti dar is genuine

Think Lah Di Dar is the nap of the day TBH

TheMilkyPirate

Lah ti dar is the bet of the day for me. Not sure how Kew gardens is favourite here and I don't trust Old Persians Meydan form

Buddy97mm

aidankkk wrote: »

Epson Oaks

Fleeting has caught my eye here. She is sure to be hugely improved from her seasonal debut . I loved her win in the May hill and also she looked like a stayer behind Just Wonderful in the Flame of Tara

2 Points EW 50/1 5 places sky, 40/1 4 places elsewhere

100% with you on this Aidan, horse won over 1m last year and crying out for this trip as a 3yo. Will improve from guineas, which was always going to be too short, guarnteed to stay IMHO, and surprised if not if first 4 or 5.

paddyisreal

To me old persian will prove the best of these in time, he will benefit from the run today as all of applebys older horses seem to need a run. His form last year in beating both cross counter and kew gardens in the voltiger is the best on offer. I thought kew gardens was given a soft comeback the last day and will be nailed on for today.

gazza1

Have had a modest ew on

Lavenders Blue

Only the 2 runs so far so should still have much more improvement. By STS so stamina should be ok. Well drawn and SDS rides Epsom as good as anyone

28/1 4 places sky

GL