Energy infrastructure

10-10-20 · 17-08-2023 5:47pm

And my parting shot on this is that we have Texas in Feb 2021 as an ideal example of what happens when you operate an insular grid which hasn't been evaluated effectively or stress-tested. It's only now are they being forced to invest in interconnectors to neighbouring states. I'm not saying that the interconnectors would have helped in situations where the grid was lacking winter resiliance, but it would have helped by stabilising portions of the population.

cnocbui · 17-08-2023 6:50pm

Let's keep it simple; explain to me the economic rationale for exporting energy in quantity into markets that have cheaper energy?

The OSW strike price for RESS2 was €98 per MW, whereas in the UK the 2024/5 OSW strike price is €49 per MW.

How do you export product that's double the cost of the same thing in the clients local market?

Leprechaun economics is alive and well.

antoinolachtnai · 17-08-2023 7:32pm

Would it be better to curtail the electricity rather than sell it for less than underwritten average cost?

antoinolachtnai · 17-08-2023 7:40pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120991376#Comment_120991376

If you are talking about building nuclear for that price, the only way it would be possible is if we had considerably more interconnection in place than we do now.

BKtje · 17-08-2023 7:47pm

With renewables you need overcapacity ( I think everyone agrees on this here?), when you have this excess you're better off exporting it at a loss than putting the brakes on the turbines.

Maybe hydrogen is pie in the sky stuff short term but while awaiting maturity you can export your excess even if you do so cheaply to keep costs to a "minimum". You need your energy supply before you build your hydrogen storage and exchangers. The industry needs to have confidence that most of the time the energy will be there. You can't provide confidence without building the generators in the first place.

People here are much more knowledgeable on this stuff than I am but I don't really see an alternative if you want fossil free energy and nuclear is off the table. Unless you want to be very heavily energy dependant on another nation of course in which case we also need them interconnectors.

The European interconnection doesn't stop at the UK, France or Germany, it keeps going east until you hit the Russian border with more being being built all the time. Each interconnection lessens the chance that all regions are hit at once. Irish energy could be powering Poland or Ukraine one day when they need and of course vice versa.

cnocbui · 17-08-2023 8:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120992212#Comment_120992212

The original rationale for excess OSW capacity was not to export that excess but to use it to generate hydrogen to decarbonise transport and to store against periods of inadequate wind.

With all this talk of interconnectors, Ryan is pulling a bait and switch. He's talking economic nonsense about 'exports' to provide a cover story of using interconnectors to back-up the grid. Is there no one willing to call him out on this nonsense? Europe doesn't always have the spare capacity to prop up Irelands' grid and with the crazy mania for EV's and heat pumps, the EU wide situation is going to get drastically worse.

Interconnectors at scale are a terrible idea. Exoprts are an economic fairy story and importing in times of need is a pure pipe dream.

10-10-20 · 17-08-2023 8:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120992051#Comment_120992051

The economic rational is simple: you don't have an open market until you have the access to the open market.

When we as an island have wind-at-scale we'll put our units up for export on a trading platform and we'll sell it off to the highest bidder. Naturally there shall be fallow times and there shall be times of plenty; it's a mugs game.

France, with all of it's nuclear generators, doesn't have the perfect outlook which you are presenting, they are experiencing both planned and extraordinary shutdowns due to ongoing maintenance and corrosion and will have to undergo complete refurbishment of their nuclear plants before they hit the wear-out phase. Additionally France is looking at a 50% nuclear power reduction target of 2035. So, yeah, there's that.

antoinolachtnai · 17-08-2023 8:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120992326#Comment_120992326

Sorry, don't see the 'bait and switch'. Please show the detailed policy paper where the bait was laid out and then the detailed policy paper where the switch was made. Please also show what the intent was with doing this.

bk · 17-08-2023 8:28pm

“The OSW strike price for RESS2 was €98 per MW, whereas in the UK the 2024/5 OSW strike price is €49 per MW.”

Meanwhile Hinkley Point C is £92.50 or €108 per MW

So why do they continue to build Hinkley when they can get wind at less than half the price? Hell they could even buy our wind for less!

Of course because this is a silly comparison, grids, generators and their markets are far more complex then simple price comparisons like this.

The market price is made up of all the different generators in the market, not just a single example you are trying to compare above. For instance the RESS 1 strike price was €74.

In the end, we export twice as much electricity to the UK as we import.

specialbyte · 17-08-2023 9:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120992051#Comment_120992051

It is quiet common that when it is windy in Ireland it isn't windy in the UK. Low pressure weather systems for the most part come off the Atlantic, hitting us first before crossing the Irish sea to the UK.

For example here are the wind prodictions (at a high-level) for this coming Sunday. Low pressure system in the Atlantic a few hundred kilometres off the Irish coast. The west coast of Ireland is seeing 25 kts of wind. The North Sea is seeing 11kts. That's a huge difference. At the centre of that low pressure zone there is almost no wind.

It's no leprechaun economics. There is huge potential for geographical arbitrage. We already see it happening today using the EWIC interconnector to the UK.

While the strike prices might be €49 or €98 that doesn't really matter. What matters is the whole market clearing price, which is frequently above that in both markets particularly around peak times.

Birdnuts · 18-08-2023 2:50am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120992679#Comment_120992679

Pity none of that mimics how energy markets or grids actually work in real life🙄

gjim · 18-08-2023 11:29am

“Pity none of that mimics how energy markets or grids actually work in real life”

Lol - have you figured out the difference between a MWh and a MW yet?

If you can’t understand why RESS style auction prices set neither a floor nor a ceiling on wholesale electricity prices, then I image you spent much of your time confused and muddled by a lot of what goes on in the world.

If basic stuff like this is beyond your comprehension, what gives you the idea that you have the slightest notion about grid operations?

10-10-20 · 18-08-2023 3:38pm

I found this interesting given the current conversation.

Here's the 1-year fuel-mix data from DRAX for the UK market.

https://electricinsights.co.uk/#/dashboard?period=1-year&start=2022-08-18&&_k=r0a9wl

Look at the imports & exports for one year ago and compare that to today: circa 5% imports/exports this time last year to 12% to 19% for the same range this year for a relatively similar consumption rate.

Ref:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Me0lFCfVCwo

The indication there is that while the wind generation is marginally higher this year, the energy providers prioritised imports via interconnectors over gas or coal, and despite having nuclear availability. Whatever conversations were had at a planning level, we don't know, but it's interesting data when looking at the function of interconnectors in Europe.

Capt'n Midnight · 19-08-2023 12:16am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120991376#Comment_120991376

6 weeks could easily be handled by the other renewables, demand shedding, imports and dipping into the our allowance of 20% of current emissions. We'll need something better by 2050 but right now EU gas reserves are hitting 90% so looking good.

If you had a 1.6GW reactor SCRAM on our grid you'd need to have 75% of power loss restored within FIVE SECONDS. At present the only way to do that is relying heavily on fossil fuel spinning reserve and that alone would make our emissions target of 20% impossible. Undersea interconnectors can't ramp up like a normal transmission line on land.

New weather satellites will give us weather reports every 10 minutes and down to 500m and by 2026 every 2.5 minutes so wind and solar keep getting more measurable and predictable

cnocbui · 19-08-2023 8:19am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120998551#Comment_120998551

The ESB disagree with you and think the problem is anything but easy. You really should check out what they have to say about the scale of the problem and the difficulty in solving it even theoretically. 70 TWH of storage needed and you think solar with a pathetic capacity factor of 10-12% is going to save you? They state that interconnectors are not a solution, but seemingly Ryan and a coterie of his devout followers here diasagree with them.

The wind stops blowing for 6 weeks and solar is going to get you through it when you force everyone to stop charging their EV's and to turn off their heat pumps and so on?

During a pan European dunkelflaute, it doesn't matter if you have interconnectors as thick as a bus as the UK and Western Europe won't have any spare to share and will be struggling to meet their own needs, because so many countries will be in the same boat when their turbines cease generating.

I am not allowed to reply to your other nonsense.

Weather satellites as a solution to a huge base load generation shortfall problem?

bk · 19-08-2023 10:26am

“The ESB disagree with you and think the problem is anything but easy. “

You keep repeating this, but you need to understand that the ESB are only putting forward their vision of the future options. Bord Gais have a different vision, while the government may have yet another vision.

The ESB’s vision is hydrogen for the last 20%. Bord Gais meanwhile think Biomethane maybe the solution for the last 20%

Meanwhile others think renewables + interconnectors might get the job done.

In the end I suspect all of the above will play a part in reaching our 2050 goal.

But Capt is correct, this is a 2050 conversation, not a 2030 one. Up until 2050, we can simply continue to use gas during those periods as part of the 20%.

BTW increasingly there is talk in the industry that we may even be able to get to 95% renewables by 2050 with existing technologies. Making that 5% gap come 2050 much easier to close.

I suspect a mix of hydrogen and biomethane burned in OCGT’s might be quite an attractive and relatively “easy” solution for us come 2050. We already have plenty of OCGT’s, we already have gas infrastructure and we have lots of waste from our agriculture industry that needs to be dealt with anyway.

Markcheese · 19-08-2023 1:29pm

There's possibility with the ag "waste" and ag crops for bio-methane , but its not as easy as just a couple of digestors

Id be intrigued to see a back of the envelope ,how much bio-gas could be made with ALL our livestock , and then how much energy crop would likely need to be added to get a decent gas yield ,

I reckon people would be surprised at the overall volumes produced

And that'd be before you included the energy to collect and then redistribute and spread the wastes, the energy to cultivate fertilize,harvest and deliver the crops , and the energy to run the AD plant ,

Oh and the energy required to clean ,compress and deliver the gas to the grid ,

Its not impossible to do , and probably best done at a smaller individual farm or cluster scale ..

bk · 19-08-2023 3:08pm

Yes Mark, I agree Biomethane is a controversial idea. I’ve been mulling the concept in my own head and I find it controversial too, but also see a lot of logic in it too.

I certainly wouldn’t support using Biomethane to replace the 50%+ of gas we currently use to generate electricity or to use Biodiesel in regular cars that could be EV’s.

The would be too much gas and require using regular farm land to grow the fuel.

However what if we are talking about just 5% of our electricity generation. Just enough to cover the 6 week low wind period.

That sounds doable to me.

Either way we need to deal with the emissions from our extremely large agricultural industry. Sounds like a relatively straightforward way too kill two birds with one stone.

Certainly it isn’t ideal, but neither is the massive amounts of beef we farm and export from this country.

Apogee · 19-08-2023 8:18pm

It looks like Constant Energy are applying to MayoCoCo for a second 230MW electrolyser for hydrogen production along with "9 no. gas engines capable of generating up to 106MW of power", located in the old Asahi plant in Killala.

Constant Energy have previously received planning approval for a 110MW electrolyser near Bellacorick. There is also a separate project for an 80MW electrolyser in Mayo by Mercury Renewables via ABP.

Progress on the Celtic Interconnector at the French end:

https://twitter.com/RTE_ouest/status/1691803067748872531

And I don't think this has been posted previously - 700MW LirlC interconnector between NI and Scotland:

https://tinv.com/intercon-projects/liric/

Capt'n Midnight · 20-08-2023 12:25am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120998875#Comment_120998875

70TWh storage ?

Annually we use 40TWh of electricity a year. And 50TWh for heating, though that should drop to 30TWh by 2050. So if everyone worked from home 70TWh would be close to annual demand. methinks you are moving goalposts again.

We can use fossil fuel until 2050 so plenty of time to get our ducks in order. (Salter's?)

Realistically ESB are looking at 3TWh storage. Then again 70TWh is very doable if you store gas in disused gas fields even if we don't have other technologies by 2050.

The Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate commis-

sioned in 2018 a technical assessment on the various options

for underground storage in the Netherlands. The technologies

investigated were those that can support the large-scale increase

of renewables, secure energy supply, and can be implemented

in the subsurface (depths >500 m) and deployed within the next

10-30 years. This paper presents part of the results showing the

large potential storage capacity for natural gas (1939 Twht) and

hydrogen (456 Twht) in depleted gas fields, and natural gas (184

TWht), hydrogen (43 TWht) and compressed air (0.58 TWh) in

salt caverns.

Birdnuts · 20-08-2023 1:41am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120994649#Comment_120994649

Your some spoofer - Your type doesn't even know the difference between installed capacity and real world output!!🙄 - my point was wind fantasists like you have no idea about the needs of the modern grid or making it affordable. The RESS you are so fond of is very much part of that problem and is simply another developer/speculator led gouging of ordinary energy users on the back of this government's seriously flawed energy policies.

bk · 20-08-2023 11:57am

"70TWh storage ?"

LOL, I didn't notice that claim he made, that is mad!!

I do know where he got that figure from, the ESB want to build the capacity to be able to generate 70TWh of hydrogen per year, however 40TWh of that is for international export. Only 30TWH of it would be used in Ireland. Nor does that even mean we need 30TWh worth of storage, it will be produced and consumed throughout the year. Plus some will be used for non electricity purposes like producing Ammonia for fertiliser or for fuelling trains, aircraft, etc.

BTW Ireland is going to build 5.8TWh capacity of Biomethane by 2030

He is also making some extraordinary claims about dunkelflaute lasting 6 weeks!

On average dunkelflaute last just 24 hours with an average of 50 to 150 hours per year (6 days).

The longest dunkelflaute the UK experienced in the past decade was 11 days. And that is considered a 1 in 20 years event.

Obviously regular dunkelflaute's are easily handled by hydrogen/biomethane. But what of the 1 in 20 year events that last 11 days to 2 weeks?

Well why not just maintain a strategic reserve of enough natural gas to handle a 2 week or hell even 6 week if you want, for a one in 20 year event!

Sure, not ideal, it would mean we would be at 99% zero emissions, rather then 100% over a 20 year period, but big whoop!

And of course over time we could gradually replace that strategic reserve with biomethane/hydrogen.

cnocbui · 20-08-2023 12:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121002412#Comment_121002412

My bad, It's 21 TWh of hydrogen storage and that 40 TWh annual electricity demand becomes 62 TWh:

As she says, 21 TWh is equivalent to a trillion Tesla power wall batteries. Would you just look at that estimate for electrolysers. That is 8 years of the world's entire current total annual production of electrolysers.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121003197#Comment_121003197

The Dunkelflaute just 2 years ago in 2021 was pan European and lasted 6 weeks. Lol yourself.

Here she says bluntly that interconnectors as backup for renewables are of limited use as a solution to pan-European dunkelflautes.

https://youtu.be/Xwxc31zhL8Y?t=430

Both the ESB's hydrogen master plan and Ryan's interconnector pipe dream that seems to be replacing it are unrealistic.

bk · 20-08-2023 1:35pm

"The Dunkelflaute just 2 years ago in 2021 was pan European and lasted 6 weeks. Lol yourself."

Except in the above video she doesn't say there was a "pan European" Dunkelflaute as you claim! She says there was a 6 week of "no wind" across Ireland, UK and North West Europe in summer 2021. Very different then your claim.

Go back and rewatch it carefully.

First of all, Ireland, UK and North West Europe aren't "pan Europe" like you claim.

But also, Dunkelflaute by definition requires a period of both low wind AND low solar. That obviously doesn't happen in summer! The 6 week period in summer 2021 was what is called a "low wind period", not a Dunkelflaute.

In fact, it isn't even true that there was "no wind" during that period, just less then normal. For those summer months, wind was at 81.4% of normal for Ireland, but that means there was still wind (and of course solar):

https://www.dnv.com/article/uk-and-ireland-windiness-2021-lower-than-long-term-averages-what-are-the-implications-for-you--223048

Again the longest Dunkelflaute that the UK had in the past decade lasted just 11 days.

So let me get this straight, in the past few posts you've claimed the following completely inaccurate claims:

Ireland needing 70TWh of storage rather then 21TWH
That Europe had a 6 week pan European Dunkelflaute, when no such thing happened. It was neither a Dunkelflaute nor "pan European"

Frankly you have lost credibility!

Frankly 21TWH of storage seems quiet doable. Even if we need to store enough Natural gas for one of these 1 in 20 year events, that seems doable.

I had taken your claims at face value. Having now looked into the subject in more detail, I'm now convinced that we should be able to handle all this without too much issue. The combination of wind, solar, interconnectors and hydorgen/Biomethane should work just fine for us.