Leopardstown 3rd April

charolais0153

I know a lot of them are maidens and are real short races but i was just wondering if ye had any idea on what to back rather than me guessing?:p

STB.

You'd do worse than backing tiger voice each way in the 5 0 Clock. 33/1. A length behind the 9/4 fav in this race last time they met. Lordan an eye catching booking.

Same with other De brom horse in an earlier race for the connections of the late special tiara. Whelan on that.

My only other tip is to watch for money on bolgers horses. He does well at leop.

Earendil

Looked at the card last night and ran a mile.
Mine field.

famagusta

STB. wrote:

My only other tip is to watch for money on bolgers horses. He does well at leop.

Got word for bolgers in the last, 5places in Paddy's, price closing in

Francie Barrett

Wincanton 3:15 - I like Solar Impulse at 13/2 in this.

IAMAMORON

At this stage of the season your into pin-jobs for most races. However Jim Bolger looks to be booting a fair amount of winners in, although the bookies are getting wise to this now. I thought Michael O'Callaghan's all looked well turned out and into their coats at Naas a few weeks gone.

Your best bet is to get up racing if you can. if you see a horse in its' coat you at least will know that it is fit and probably ready for a good run. It will help you to eliminate the non-triers at this stage at least.

The upside of early season is that no-one has a bogs notion either, even the trainers can only compare their best with their best, they won't fully know how their new ones are going until they race. They will be aware of fast times etc, but they won't know till they run. For me this means there is a lot of opportunity in the market as the bookies struggle here also.

Be careful with 2 year old maidens. I once knew a bookies' runner who was able to tell you which well fancied horses at the top of the market had no chance. He was never wrong, they get their info all the time from somewhere. It was really helpful having a fair idea of the false favourites. The amount of odds on shots I saw getting beaten would sicken you, but the bookies were well aware of the wrong ones to be backing.

realdanbreen

IAMAMORON wrote: »

At this stage of the season your into pin-jobs for most races. However Jim Bolger looks to be booting a fair amount of winners in, although the bookies are getting wise to this now. I thought Michael O'Callaghan's all looked well turned out and into their coats at Naas a few weeks gone.

Your best bet is to get up racing if you can. if you see a horse in its' coat you at least will know that it is fit and probably ready for a good run. It will help you to eliminate the non-triers at this stage at least.

The upside of early season is that no-one has a bogs notion either, even the trainers can only compare their best with their best, they won't fully know how their new ones are going until they race. They will be aware of fast times etc, but they won't know till they run. For me this means there is a lot of opportunity in the market as the bookies struggle here also.

Be careful with 2 year old maidens. I once knew a bookies' runner who was able to tell you which well fancied horses at the top of the market had no chance. He was never wrong, they get their info all the time from somewhere. It was really helpful having a fair idea of the false favourites. The amount of odds on shots I saw getting beaten would sicken you, but the bookies were well aware of the wrong ones to be backing.

Can't say I've come across Michael O'Callaghan, where's his yard?

NaiveMelodies

realdanbreen wrote: »

Can't say I've come across Michael O'Callaghan, where's his yard?

The Curragh. Young fella. Has had some nice horses. Slow enough season last year.

IAMAMORON

realdanbreen wrote: »

Can't say I've come across Michael O'Callaghan, where's his yard?

He learnt his onions with Aidan O'Brien , he's a decent trainer.

https://www.irishracing.com/trainer?name=M-D-O'Callaghan&prt=19774

NaiveMelodies

Have a Nice Day is a nice price in the last. Change of yard to eke out improvement hopefully.

Kauto

IAMAMORON wrote: »

He learnt his onions with Aidan O'Brien , he's a decent trainer.

https://www.irishracing.com/trainer?name=M-D-O'Callaghan&prt=19774

A trainer who is going no where imo. Has them gunned fist time out and got a few nice touches selling duds to the qatari boys. They dont improve for runs and anyone that knows anything about the game wont buy one off him.

Kauto

Lyons filly in the last is about 20 pounds wrong at the weight. Runs off 72 and will be 90+ before the end of June. Draw a negative but she should be winning this.

Mostly Harmless

Kauto wrote: »

A trainer who is going no where imo. Has them gunned fist time out and got a few nice touches selling duds to the qatari boys. They dont improve for runs and anyone that knows anything about the game wont buy one off him.

This, he's on borrowed time

Mostly Harmless

Thought Newstead Abbey was a very fair price in second race at Southwell

jkbkhhho7t

Absolute Minefield
Leopardstown 16:30- Tirmizi 11/2
Leopardstown 18:00- Chamrousse 9/1
Leopardstown 18:30- Tammy Wynette 13/2
Leopardstown 17:00- Imaging 7/2

Theonly way

As some have already stated that card is a nightmare.
Better opportunities @ Southwell.

One of small interest there is Imaging 5

Ita got a good record fresh .Has a decent strike rate of 43%-86%-7 .
But the problem being one wont know how useless or brilliant the AOP horse is after 3 mediocre runs so small stake if any at all Ha.

GL

Mostly Harmless

Theonly way wrote: »

As some have already stated that card is a nightmare.
Better opportunities @ Southwell.

One of small interest there is Imaging 5

Ita got a good record fresh .Has a decent strike rate of 43%-86%-7 .
But the problem being one wont know how useless or brilliant the AOP horse is after 3 mediocre runs so small stake if any at all Ha.

GL

Apart from the inconclusive nature of this post, I am not sure how you can arrive at the 86% place strike rate figure given on one of those occasions it finished 2nd in a 4 runner race, also not sure re good record fresh comment, one won (odds on fav) and been unplaced on other occasion when running on back of break, might want to account for that in your algorithm

Theonly way

To : Mostly Harmless .

For sure I am not here to educate you as that would be a fruitless project.
If you cannot add well explains alot.

Have a nice day .

Mostly Harmless

"43%-86%-7"

Win SR = 3/7 = 43%
Place SR = 5/7 (3 wins + 2 places) = 71%

If you count 2nd in a 4 runner race as a place (it's not) then you can arrive at your figure of 86%.

Please update your python code accordingly.

Francie Barrett

Did someone really call a horse Harambe? ffs :pac:

Theonly way

Is it counted on the stud book= yes
Is it counted on the Prize money won=yes
Can you bet on 2nd place in a 4 runner event =yes

Mostly Harmless

Thanks for that. I'm off to bet a horse that won a walkover last time because it is an in form horse.

Mostly Harmless

Ones I liked at Leop:
5.00: Zihba
6.00: Jered Maddox
6.30: Pacific Fleet

Earendil

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Thanks for that. I'm off to bet a horse that won a walkover last time because it is an in form horse.

Share it MH you greedy bastard! :pac:

Mostly Harmless

Earendil wrote: »

Share it MH you greedy bastard! :pac:

Was not serious, just making point that looking at raw numbers alone can lead you to some incorrect conclusions.

Earendil

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Was not serious, just making point that looking at raw numbers alone can lead you to some incorrect conclusions.

Yeah I got that...it was a joke.

PhuckHugh2

Its pretty tough that Leopardstown card. I think i spent about 2 hours looking at it last night and couldnt really find a bet.
I was kind of interested in Pacific Ocean in the next 4.00 but am not convinced about betting O Briens at this stage as usual.
That being said i did bet him at around the 20 mark on the exchange.

Only other horse i bet was Psychedelic Funk which is also a pretty speculative punt but the price was right.

Theonly way

To :Mostly harmless.

Hang on a second I know a fella who has a pin .It might help you.

Mostly Harmless

Theonly way wrote: »

To :Mostly harmless.

Hang on a second I know a fella who has a pin .It might help you.

You're ok, I have a python program that identifies the optimal location to place the pin for maximum profit

Theonly way

Well you must keep it to yourself as for sure its not shown a great deal of promise on here.

Motajaasid 4


4.55 Southwell. If the horse will settle .Backed it in the hope it will.

GL

longshotvalue

I Cant leave that AMEDEO MODIGLIANI go of at 4/1.

Have to have a small bet for interest.

PhuckHugh2

Theonly way wrote: »

Well you must keep it to yourself as for sure its not shown a great deal of promise on here.

Motajaasid 4


4.55 Southwell. If the horse will settle .Backed it in the hope it will.

GL

He has probably run the most profitable thread that has ever been put up here from an ROI standpoint.

I wish my pin was not showing a great deal.

PhuckHugh2

They had a fair punt off Verbal Dexterity before the off there.

Amadeo Modigliani couldnt have been more tenderly handled.

Theonly way

And have a nice day.

PhuckHugh2

Theonly way wrote: »

And have a nice day.

Dont see him entered today.

paddyisreal

Ryan moore is a bit if a bookies friend, seems to get caught out a lot now days.

PhuckHugh2

paddyisreal wrote: »

Ryan moore is a bit if a bookies friend, seems to get caught out a lot now days.

I would say more of a do as your told job. Looked a pure learning on the job ride.

BorneTobyWilde

Gold JAsmine 20-1 5 places PP
6.00 pm

Has two wins and 3 places from 10 starts. Has won on turf before and has won 2 and placed 2 times out of 5 tries at this trip of 7f.
Drawn 13, draw bias is for the higher drawn horses around here.

I think it's a good EW BET.

Andrew00

Absolute mugs backing Amedeo Modigliani even after the drift. Some people shouldn't be gambling on racing really.

There's enough stacked against us punters as it is but to back drifters like that? Clowns

Earendil

Andrew00 wrote: »

Absolute mugs backing Amedeo Modigliani even after the drift. Some people shouldn't be gambling on racing really.

There's enough stacked against us punters as it is but to back drifters like that? Clowns

How much you lose mate?

PhuckHugh2

Andrew00 wrote: »

Absolute mugs backing Amedeo Modigliani even after the drift. Some people shouldn't be gambling on racing really.

There's enough stacked against us punters as it is but to back drifters like that? Clowns

Everything has a price Andrew. Didnt bet him myself but i could see the angle.
Tbh if they ran a race of similar conditions again in a month id bet him to beat that lot anything down to 5/2

DubInTheWest

In powers now and tip going around for Regular in the 6.15 Kempton. I took 100/30.

Andrew00

Earendil wrote: »

How much you lose mate?

Don't really bet in these early season flat races but whatever you say bud

PhuckHugh2

PhuckHugh2 wrote: »

Dont see him entered today.

Ah i see he ran in the last race.

realdanbreen

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

The Curragh. Young fella. Has had some nice horses. Slow enough season last year.

He had a nice winner in the last.

IAMAMORON

realdanbreen wrote: »

He had a nice winner in the last.

Keep an eye on him in handicaps for the next few months. He should be winning again, definitely has the makings of a 3 yr old improver. He has won that off top weight.

Mary Salome for the Tylicki's was unlucky also. Should improve if they can straighten her out.

Kauto

realdanbreen wrote: »

He had a nice winner in the last.

Wait and see its next run......

The Mig

Kauto wrote: »

Wait and see its next run......

I am Superman just bolted up there by 6 lengths at Naas :pac:

NaiveMelodies

The Mig wrote: »

I am Superman just bolted up there by 6 lengths at Naas :pac:

In an aul 50k handicap- an exceptional training performance.

The Mig

Wait and see its next run......

Mostly Harmless

I Am Superman obviously a decent horse but I cannot have that O'Callaghan is anything other than a very overrated trainer myself