Horse Racing Betting Log

Nulty

Aintree April 5th 2019

Topham Handicap Chase


He's very far down the list at the moment but if he doesn't get a run then the money gets put back in the bag. Kilcrea Vale has run twice over the National fences and has placed on both occasions. He ran very well to finish 3rd to Warrior's Tale in the Grand Sefton in December and finished 4th in this race 12 months earlier off the same mark. I can't imagine anything but coming back Aintree for the Topham was the plan since.

He's 3lbs lower than the Grand Sefton when going down by just over 3l. Provided he gets in the race he has a fantastic chance winning. He way over priced for the race considering his consistency and liking for the National course. The only worry would be that the ground is a bit too quick becuase he looked to get outpaced sometimes but at least teh track will be well watered.

2pts ew @ 25/1 William Hill, Totesport (Antepost)

Nulty

Ayr April 13th 2019

Scottish Champion Hurdle

I've been tracking Leoncavallo since his run in the Galway Hurdle last year and even backed him at Cheltenham in the County. He was never travelling there and got sharp cracks after the second last. He seemed to run a bit flat and didn't appreciate being in mid division. His best runs have come when he was up with the pace and hopefully those are the tactics employed here.

The form of the Galway Hurdle is so good that Leoncavallo is worth chasing in these big field handicaps. There is a possibility that he'll be campaigned with a view to returning to Galway in the summer but a prize like this is worth going for.

Leoncavallo was 25/1 this morning and seeing him cut to 16/1 is disappointing, while I'm pretty confident that this only confirms the horse is aimed at the race rather than the conditionals hurdle at Aintree on Saturday, I would have still taken the risk at 25s but just got there too late. It's nice to be confident of getting a run for the money in antepost betting though and 16/1 is definitely worth a bet here.

Leoncavallo 2pts ew @ 16/1 Bet365 1/4 odds 4 places (Antepost)

Nulty

I'll put two bets up here for the National.

Aintree April 6th 2019

Grand National

Pairofbrowneyes hasn't been tested over an extreme staying distance and in fact needed to win his last race in order to qualify for the National. He'd won the same race (Leinster National) at Gowran last season but it was just under 3m, but he won it again this year off 7lbs higher. He's now officially 10lbs well in for the National and given the confidence in the horse going into last years Irish National I would be expecting a big effort from the horse at Aintree.

He comes into the race off the back of a career best performance and has all of the improvement under his belt without a penalty. He goes on any ground winning on Heavy to Good. The main worries about the horse have to be the fact he fell in the irish national last year. The horse just didn't jump, it looked like a brain freeze and something I wouldn't be too worried about as he's a very reliable jumper the rest of the time.

He's by Luso who's had a few horses run in the National and some that didn't get home like Hear The Echo. He was out of a Strong Gale mare who's progeny have had surprisingly few placers and no winners in the national for a staying sire and now the course is two furlongs shorter than that year. Some others by Luso include Chicago Grey (PU) who was a poor slow jumper and Priests Leap (14th twice).

He's likely to be ridden by P Townend with Walsh likely to opt for Rathvinden.

Based on his rating, his latest performance, and the confidence behind him in the Irish National there he has to be considered as a candidate to win the race.

Pairofbrowneyes 1pt ew @ 25/1 1/5 odds, 6 places Betfair, Boyles, PP, BetVictor

Nulty

Ayr April 13th 2019

Scottish Grand National

Chic Name is a horse going the right way. He's a bit out of the handicap here but I still think there is more to come from the horse, especially stepping up to this marathon trip. This race tends to go to an improving younger horse, Chic Name might be the one here.

Chic Name 1pt ew @ 20/1 1/5 odds, 6 places (Generally available)
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Nulty

Total -12pts

Cheltenham 16th November

BetVictor Gold Cup

Count Meribel is a second season chaser in this field and looks likely to go off at half his current price. His last run behind potential Gold Cup horse Lostintranslation was a great start back and gives confidence that he is in good order and potentially targeted at this race. Trainer Twiston-Davies has a good record in this race, at this time of the year and at the track. Count Meribel won the Novice race on the Friday at this meeting last year. That run in combination with the last run are career best efforts leaving it open for the possibility that his peak could be found on Saturday.

Count Meribel 2pts @ 20/1 BetVictor

Nulty

Total -14pts

Newbury 30th November

Ladbrokes Trophy

Dingo Dollar has been laid out for this race since the end of last season. He finished 3rd in the race last year off 2lbs higher than his current rating. Added to that, the horses in the finish last year, Beware Teh Bear, Elegant Escape and West Approach are all up between 5lbs and 10lbs which is a significant pull for Dingo Dollar. He may well not be up to this but he's weighted to go better than last year and the trainer believes a dry run up to the race will give him the best chance thinking the rain that fell the night before the race last year went against him. Smad Place finished 5th the year for the same trainer before he won this race in 2015 so maybe something similar can happen here.

Neil Mulholland always seems to have one run well in this race. Carols Destrier almost beat Native River in 2016. Pilgrims Bay finished 5th the following year, Druids Nephew 7th in 2013. Only The Young Master has let him down. He sends two here, Walt and Shantou Village. He looked like he might have won the Kerry National last month only for Robbie Power being unseated. He's gone up 5lbs for that but that may be lean. The prospect of half decent ground brings this horse into the reckoning when he looks completely ignored in the betting. I will leave Walt alone here but at 40/1 Shantou Village is worth a bet.

Dingo Dollar 1pt ew @ 14/1 PP (5 places @ 1/5)
Shantou Village 1pt @ 40/1

Nulty

Chepstow 27th December

Coral Welsh National

There's plenty of horses that are interesting and some I've already backed but failed to get onto this thread. One that I like but was unsure what the plan was for is Kilfilum Cross. The horse runs in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle tomorrow and is a well backed fav but the intention is to then go to Chepstow for the Welsh National. He will get a winners penalty if he wins tomorrow and if he does his price will crash for this race. Either way he'll come to the race and the stamina test is likely to suit him what ever happens at Newcastle. I backed the horse for the Kim Muir last year and he ran a blinder to finish second to Any Second Now. He's won a novice hurdle at Chepstow which is good for his prospects of handling the track. There is a chance of Newcastle being called off which might not be a bad thing.

Kilfilum Cross 1pt @ 33/1 SkyBet

Nulty

Leopardstown 29th December

Neville Hotels Novice Chase (Grade 1)

Will explain tomorrow

Champagne Classic 3pts @ 5/1 PP