April 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the I.M.T. (Irish Mean Temperature, average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon) ... the 1981-2010 normal value is 8.4 C.

2. Predict the MAX temperature at any of 25 regular reporting locations on the met.ie website.

3. Predict the MIN temperature at any of 25 regular reporting locations on the met.ie website.

4. Predict the PRC (precipitation) which is the average at eleven locations expressed as a percentage of normal. The stations used are the five in (1) above plus Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) which is the average at six locations expressed as a percentage of normal. The stations used are Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Cork, Shannon and Valentia.

6. BONUS -- Easter Sunday (21st) is late this year, what kind of weather can Dublin (A) expect? We will go with a three-part bonus where you predict the maximum temperature, the rainfall for the calendar date (mm) and the sunshine hours. Scoring will be based on being in the top, middle or bottom thirds then anyone with 9 will get 3 extra superbonus points, anyone with 8 will get 2 extra and anyone with one high score will get a superbonus if they have at least 3 out of 6 on the remaining two.

Forecasts:

MTC _________ 8.0 _ 20.0 _ -3.2 __ 080 __ 110 ___ 14.5 _ 3.5mm _ 6.8h

Normal _______ 8.4 _ 20.5 _ -2.0 __ 100 __ 100 ___ 13.5 _ 2.2 mm _ 4.8h

(make yours look like these to speed up my table of forecasts posting. TIA.)

The on-time deadline is 0300h Monday, 1st of April.

Late penalties are now 1 point for every four hours late to 19z (possible 10 point deduction by then) followed by one point per hour after that.

Good luck !!

pauldry

Pauldry_________ 7.7 _ 20.1_ -2.8 __ 098__ 115 ___ 16.5_ 0mm _ 8h

200motels

200motels_______8.2___20.5___-3.1___88____87____ 16.3___0mm___7.5hrs

sunflower3

Sunflower3_________ 8.1 _ 21.0_ -3.0 __ 085 __ 110 ___ 16.0_ 0mm _ 4h

sryanbruen

sryanbruen _________ 8.5 _ 19.0 _ -3.3 __ 075 __ 100 ___ 15.8 _ 0.0mm _ 5.9h

YanSno

YanSno _________ 8.0 _ 20.5 _ -3.9 __ 075 __ 110 ___ 14.5 _ 2.0mm _ 6.5h

Artane2002

Artane2002 _________ 8.2 _ 20.3 _ -2.3 __ 105 __ 100 ___ 14.9 _ 0.8mm _ 7.2h

Bsal

Bsal _______ 8.6 _ 19.0 _ -2.3 __ 90 __ 108 ___ 14.0 _ 0.1 mm _ 6.0h

DOCARCH

DOCARCH _______ 8.6 _ 19.2 _ -2.3 __ 85 __ 110 ___ 15.2 _ 0.0 mm _ 8.9h

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 8.4 ___ 20.5 ___ -2.5 ___ 73 ___ 115 ___ 14.0 ___ NIL ___ 4.1 ___

Rikand

Rikand ___ 9.0 ___ 21.0 ___ -2.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ____ 19.0 _ 0.0mm _ maximum sun(whatever the maximum amount can be!)

dasa29

dasa29 _________ 8.2 _ 20.5 _ -1.5 __ 110 __ 110 ___ 16.5 _ 2.0mm _ 5.0h

John mac

John Mac_______ 8.5 _ 21.5 _ -2.9 __ 105 __ 98 ___ 15.5 _ 1.2 mm _ 3.8h

mickger844posts

mickger844posts _______ 7.2 _ 18.5 _ -2.3 __ 85 __ 90 ___ 12.5 _ 0 mm _ 3.5h

mrskinner

Skinner____8.7____20.0____-3.3_____100____100____15.3/0.5mm/7.2h

Joe Public

Joe Public_________ 7.7 _ 21.9 _ -4.6 __ 99 __ 120 ___ 14.6 _ 0mm _ 5.6h

Tae laidir

Tae laidir _______ 8.9 _ 21.8 _ -3.2 __ 115 __ 95 ___ 16.0 _ 3.2 mm _ 3.2 h

waterways

waterways _______ 8.5 _ 22.5 _ -4.1 __ 91 __ 105 ___ 16.6 _ 0.0 mm _ 6.2h

dacogawa

Dacogawa_______7.9 __ 21.1 __ -2.6 __ 110 __ 105 __ 16.8 _ 0mm _ 7h

Jpmarn

Jpmarn _______ 8.2 _ 21.5 _ -2.8 __ 110 __ 120 ___ 14.5 _ 0.8 mm _ 5.8h

The first week is like old March being rather cold and unsettled.

rameire

Rameire_______8.0___19.5___-3.0___87____97____ 18.0___1mm___8.5hrs

BLIZZARD7

BLIZZARD7 _________ 8.3 _ 21.5 _ -3.9 __ 070__ 120___ 21.0 _ 0.0mm _ 8h

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for April, 2019


FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Dublin 21st


Adam240610 _____ (-5) __ 9.0 _ 23.2 _ -2.0 _ 101 _ 110 ___ 17.5 _ 0.5 mm _ 5.5 h

Rikand _________________9.0 _ 21.0 _ -2.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 19.0 _ 0.0 mm _12.0 h

Tae laidir _______________8.9 _ 21.8 _ -3.2 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 16.0 _ 3.2 mm _ 3.2 h

Mr Skinner ______________8.7_ 20.0 _ -3.3 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 15.3 _ 0.5 mm _ 7.2 h

DOCARCH ______________ 8.6 _ 19.2 _ -2.3 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 15.2 _ 0.0 mm _ 8.9 h

Bsal ___________________ 8.6 _ 19.0 _ -2.3 _ 090 _ 108 ___ 14.0 _ 0.1 mm _ 6.0 h

waterways ______________8.5 _ 22.5 _ -4.1 _ 091 _ 105 ___ 16.6 _ 0.0 mm _ 6.2 h

John Mac _______________ 8.5 _ 21.5 _ -2.9 _ 105 _ 098 ___ 15.5 _ 1.2 mm _ 3.8 h

sryanbruen _____________ 8.5 _ 19.0 _ -3.3 _ 075 _ 100 ___ 15.8 _ 0.0 mm _ 5.9 h


___ Normal _____________8.4 _ 20.5 _ -2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.5 _ 2.2 mm _ 4.8 h


Kindred Spirit ___________ 8.4 _ 20.5 _ -2.5 _ 073 _ 115 ___ 14.0 _ 0.0 mm _ 4.1 h

BLIZZARD7 ______ (-3) __ 8.3 _ 21.5 _ -3.9 _ 070 _ 120 ___ 21.0 _ 0.0 mm _ 8.0 h

Jpmarn ________________ 8.2 _ 21.5 _ -2.8 _ 110 _ 120 ___ 14.5 _ 0.8 mm _ 5.8 h


___ Con Sensus _________ 8.2 _ 20.5 _ -2.9 _ 091 _ 110 ___ 15.7 _ 0.1 mm _ 6.1 h


dasa29 ________________ 8.2 _ 20.5 _ -1.5 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 16.5 _ 2.0 mm _ 5.0 h

200motels ______________8.2 _ 20.5 _ -3.1 _ 088 _ 087 ___ 16.3 _ 0.0 mm _ 7.5 h

Artane2002 _____________8.2 _ 20.3 _ -2.3 _ 105 _ 100 ___ 14.9 _ 0.8 mm _ 7.2 h

Sunflower3 _____________8.1 _ 21.0 _ -3.0 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 16.0 _ 0.0 mm _ 4.0 h

YanSno ________________8.0 _ 20.5 _ -3.9 _ 075 _ 110 ___ 14.5 _ 2.0 mm _ 6.5 h

M.T. Cranium ___________ 8.0 _ 20.0 _ -3.2 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 14.5 _ 3.5 mm _ 6.8 h

Rameire _______ (-2) ____ 8.0 _ 19.5 _ -3.0 _ 087 _ 097 ___ 18.0 _ 1.0 mm _ 8.5 h

Dacogawa ______________7.9 _ 21.1 _ -2.6 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 16.8 _ 0.0 mm _ 7.0 h

Joe Public ______________ 7.7 _ 21.9 _ -4.6 _ 099 _ 120 ___ 14.6 _ 0.0 mm _ 5.6 h

JCXBXC _______________ 7.7 _ 20.1 _ -1.7 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 13.8 _ 3.0 mm _ 1.0 h

Pauldry ________________7.7 _ 20.1 _ -2.8 _ 098 _ 115 ___ 16.5 _ 0.0 mm _ 8.0 h

mickger844posts ________ 7.2 _ 18.5 _ -2.3 _ 085 _ 090 ___ 12.5 _ 0.0 mm _ 3.5 h

________________________________________________________________________

Con Sensus is the median of 24 forecasts or average of 12th and 13th ranked forecasts.

Rikand, max sunshine possible is about 13 hours, I went with 12 for you in case that recorder is shaded a bit.

The consensus for 21st (Dublin) is for a rather warm day with half the field predicting no rain (the median was 0.05 mm rounded up to 0.1). Those 12 are going to score the same and it hurt my brain to try to figure out what that meant for scoring. If there is no rain (or a trace) then these will all score 3. If there is a very small amount, they may also score 3 if they tie for any place better than 5th, otherwise, I think we'll have to go with them all at 2/3 with 5 to 8 only at 3/3. If there are four or fewer that have larger errors, those will bring in these zero forecasts at 1/3. If there are 5 to 8 that have larger errors, those will score 1/3 and the zero forecasts will all be 2/3. As the fourth and fifth highest rain forecasts are 2.0 mm, this is the breakdown for amounts and scoring for the zero forecasts ...

Actual, mm ___ zero forecast scores

0.0 to 0.4 ____ 3/3

0.5 to 1.0 ____ 2/3

1.1 and above_ 1/3

Hopefully there won't be too many ties otherwise as I separate the groups into three for scoring.

(this is the order of precip forecasts for 21st) ...

0.0 (12) __ 0.1 __ 0.5 (2) __ 0.8 (2) __ 1.0 __ 1.2 __ 2.0 (2) __ 3.0 __ 3.2 __ 3.5

Rikand

I'm playing golf all day that day. I demand wall to wall sunshine!

adam240610

Adam240610___9__23.2__-2__101__110__17.5__0.5mm__5.5hrs

Apologies for being so late, college has been crazy.

JCX BXC

JCXBXC_______7.7 __ 20.1 __ -1.7__ 110 __ 105 __ 13.8 _ 3mm _ 1h

So busy I forgot!

M.T. Cranium

Thanks, now I think we have a full turnout and I have added Con Sensus to the table.

Tae laidir

Moore Park -1.1 yesterday

Joe Public

Tae laidir wrote: »

Moore Park -1.1 yesterday

Corrected to -1.0 but doesn't beat Oak Park with -9.7 :eek:

pauldry

Looks like the mercy rule for all.

Though this morning it said -1.1c Oak Park.

In any case those are the temps till Midnight so prob -2 or -3 or -10

M.T. Cranium

I saw -3 at Moore Park this morning while preparing the forecast.

That -9.7 reading at Oak Park is some sort of glitch, the ground minimum is only -0.4. Hourlies never go below freezing.

Will monitor the daily data section for a correction on that.

sryanbruen

Synop reports give a min of -1.1c at Oak Park.

pauldry

-3.4c in Moore Park.

Could be hard beat as nights get shorter n sun stronger

M.T. Cranium

The dubious -9.7 reading is still there in "daily data" for 4th at Oak Park. If it should be -1.1 and remains in the calculations, that would make the mean for the 4th 4.3 deg too low (half the error) and the week will be reported 0.6 too low (4.3 / 7). That in turn would make the IMT report for the week 0.1 too low. It might not even affect the first decimal of the monthly IMT.

M.T. Cranium

After one week ...

IMT on 5.8 (5.9 if questionable data amended) or 2.1 below normal for the period.

MAX to the 7th was 14.8, this may be nudged up after today.

MIN that we find credible -3.4 (Moore Park), likely to be amended -9.7 (Oak Park).

PRC 111% of normal with the southwest drier than average, all other areas a bit wetter.

SUN has averaged 115% of normal (692/600).

M.T. Cranium

The dubious -9.7 reading at Oak Park remains in the daily data for 4th, I sent in an e-mail asking about it just to bring it to somebody's attention.

The IMT after eleven days is 6.70 C (6.74 with that error subject to adjustment, fairly soon its value overall will drop below 0.02 in the IMT).

Have seen a MAX of 15.4 since last report but not watching too closely as I would imagine later next week easy to get to 17 or 18 in the west.

Some horrific looking charts showing up in the 12-16 day time frame, probably won't happen I suppose but they bring some very chilly air south from the vicinity of northeast Greenland. Taking the GFS 12z run verbatim the IMT would probably take a gradual rise to near 8 by Easter then would fall back to low 7's later in the month.

M.T. Cranium

Update after two weeks ...

IMT on 6.7 C with this past week average 7.5, 0.9 below normal. (with the Oak Park error adjusted, 6.72 to 6.75 so perhaps 6.8). This looks like making a gradual rise into the mid 7 range in the coming week.

MAX remains at a vulnerable 15.4 waiting for a boost.

MIN is not yet confirmed to be the -3.4 reading at Moore Park, daily data has not changed for the spurious -9.7 Oak Park reading on 4th. Guessing that won't survive to the Monthly Summary.

PRC was 96% of normal with the week at 81%. However, today's rain would probably leave the monthly total around 120%. As not much more is expected this week, the average after three weeks might be back to where it was after two weeks with week three already guaranteed about 80% (most near 50% as only Cork of the eleven locations has seen really large totals today).

SUN has fallen to 89% with this past week only 62% (373/600). This value could begin to recover this week.

M.T. Cranium

For the archives, MAX increased to 16.2 on Wednesday and will be revised to at least 20 today with several locations reporting that value for several hours. And that won't be the end of it either.

Bsal

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1118950639982268417

M.T. Cranium

This would be the bonus scoring for any max above 18.8, a dry day with at least 9.6 hours sunshine at Dub (A).

For any max slightly below 18.6, BLIZZARD7 (21.0) would be too high to score 3 and highest of the 2's here (200motels at 16.3) would get 3 and an additional superbonus point.

For any sunshine 9 to 9.4, rikand would drop one point and one superbonus, the extra point would go to dacogawa who would then get two superbonus points ... at 9.5 both rikand and dacogawa get 3 points and 2 superbonus.



BONUS scoring

FORECASTER _________ 19.0 _ 0.0 __ 9.6 h __ super ____ TOTAL



Rikand ________________3 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 2 _______11

BLIZZARD7 ____________ 3 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 2 ______ 11

Pauldry _______________ 3 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 2 _______11

DOCARCH _____________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 1 _______ 9

waterways _____________3 ___ 3 ___ 2 ______ 1 _______ 9

200motels _____________2 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 1 _______ 9

Dacogawa _____________ 3 ___ 3 ___ 2 ______ 1 _______ 9

Mr Skinner _____________2 ___ 2 ___ 3 _______________ 7

sryanbruen ____________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 _______________ 7

Rameire ______________ 3 ___ 1 ___ 3 _______________ 7

Joe Public _____________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 ________________7

Adam240610 ___________3 ___ 2 ___ 1 _______________ 6

Artane2002 ____________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 3 _______________ 6

Sunflower3 ____________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 1 ________________6


___ Con Sensus ________ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ________________6


Bsal __________________1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ________________5

Kindred Spirit __________ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 _______________ 5

mickger844posts ________1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ________________5

John Mac ______________2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________________ 4

Tae laidir ______________2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________________ 4

YanSno _______________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ________________ 4

M.T. Cranium __________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ________________ 4

JCXBXC _______________1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________________ 3


___ Normal ____________1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________________ 3

_______________________________________________________________________

These would be the scores for any dry outcomes where max temp is greater than 18.8 and sunshine 9.5 hours.

Will revise this table or confirm its accuracy after the 21st. Please note I am taking a few days for holiday time (22nd to 29th roughly) which may mean delays in updating this thread. I will have some internet access though.

pauldry

22.5c in Finner today new max

Over to Leinster at weekend to try and top that one

M.T. Cranium

Max 23.0 at Oak Park on Saturday. Check later to see if anyone beat that today.

Joe Public

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Max 23.0 at Oak Park on Saturday. Check later to see if anyone beat that today.

Mercy:o

M.T. Cranium

The MAX remains 23.0 with Sunday's top reading 22.1 at Phoenix Park.

The early scoring for the bonus question is confirmed with Dublin's actuals 21.7, 0.0 mm and 12.2 hours. Rikand is the new Nostradamus.

After three weeks ...

IMT on 8.24 so could be 8.3 with the Oak Park error fixed (still in the daily data). Differential is now .2 for Oak Park so .04 overall. The past week average was 11.3 (2.4 above normal). Would expect a finish around 8.5 C.

MAX 23.0 and MIN -3.4

PRC is bang on the normal pace with this past week contributing 108% of normal, almost all of it fell on the 15th at Cork and Johnstown Castle, the average for the other nine locations being only 60% (Malin Head 22%). Looks as though this coming week will push PRC back above normal eventually though.

SUN has edged up to 99% of normal with this past week at 105% (630/600). The month is likely to end near normal but could slip back a few percentage points after today where it has probably reached perhaps 103%.

-- I am off for a week of adventure beyond the reach of the internet, the week four update may appear almost at the end of the 30th with some provisional scoring likely. The May contest thread will open up today in case I am even later getting back than planned. I may have a few minutes of internet access around 28th to bump it back to page one if necessary.

Jpmarn

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

This would be the bonus scoring for any max above 18.8, a dry day with at least 9.6 hours sunshine at Dub (A).

For any max slightly below 18.6, BLIZZARD7 (21.0) would be too high to score 3 and highest of the 2's here (200motels at 16.3) would get 3 and an additional superbonus point.

For any sunshine 9 to 9.4, rikand would drop one point and one superbonus, the extra point would go to dacogawa who would then get two superbonus points ... at 9.5 both rikand and dacogawa get 3 points and 2 superbonus.



BONUS scoring

FORECASTER _________ 19.0 _ 0.0 __ 9.6 h __ super ____ TOTAL



Rikand ________________3 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 2 _______11

BLIZZARD7 ____________ 3 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 2 ______ 11

Pauldry _______________ 3 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 2 _______11

DOCARCH _____________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 1 _______ 9

waterways _____________3 ___ 3 ___ 2 ______ 1 _______ 9

200motels _____________2 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 1 _______ 9

Dacogawa _____________ 3 ___ 3 ___ 2 ______ 1 _______ 9

Mr Skinner _____________2 ___ 2 ___ 3 _______________ 7

sryanbruen ____________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 _______________ 7

Rameire ______________ 3 ___ 1 ___ 3 _______________ 7

Joe Public _____________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 ________________7

Adam240610 ___________3 ___ 2 ___ 1 _______________ 6

Artane2002 ____________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 3 _______________ 6

Sunflower3 ____________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 1 ________________6


___ Con Sensus ________ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ________________6


Bsal __________________1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ________________5

Kindred Spirit __________ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 _______________ 5

mickger844posts ________1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ________________5

John Mac ______________2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________________ 4

Tae laidir ______________2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________________ 4

YanSno _______________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ________________ 4

M.T. Cranium __________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ________________ 4

JCXBXC _______________1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________________ 3


___ Normal ____________1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________________ 3

_______________________________________________________________________

These would be the scores for any dry outcomes where max temp is greater than 18.8 and sunshine 9.5 hours.

Will revise this table or confirm its accuracy after the 21st. Please note I am taking a few days for holiday time (22nd to 29th roughly) which may mean delays in updating this thread. I will have some internet access though.

Where is my score for the Bonus question?

dasa29

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

This would be the bonus scoring for any max above 18.8, a dry day with at least 9.6 hours sunshine at Dub (A).

For any max slightly below 18.6, BLIZZARD7 (21.0) would be too high to score 3 and highest of the 2's here (200motels at 16.3) would get 3 and an additional superbonus point.

For any sunshine 9 to 9.4, rikand would drop one point and one superbonus, the extra point would go to dacogawa who would then get two superbonus points ... at 9.5 both rikand and dacogawa get 3 points and 2 superbonus.



BONUS scoring

FORECASTER _________ 19.0 _ 0.0 __ 9.6 h __ super ____ TOTAL



Rikand ________________3 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 2 _______11

BLIZZARD7 ____________ 3 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 2 ______ 11

Pauldry _______________ 3 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 2 _______11

DOCARCH _____________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 1 _______ 9

waterways _____________3 ___ 3 ___ 2 ______ 1 _______ 9

200motels _____________2 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 1 _______ 9

Dacogawa _____________ 3 ___ 3 ___ 2 ______ 1 _______ 9

Mr Skinner _____________2 ___ 2 ___ 3 _______________ 7

sryanbruen ____________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 _______________ 7

Rameire ______________ 3 ___ 1 ___ 3 _______________ 7

Joe Public _____________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 ________________7

Adam240610 ___________3 ___ 2 ___ 1 _______________ 6

Artane2002 ____________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 3 _______________ 6

Sunflower3 ____________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 1 ________________6


___ Con Sensus ________ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ________________6


Bsal __________________1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ________________5

Kindred Spirit __________ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 _______________ 5

mickger844posts ________1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ________________5

John Mac ______________2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________________ 4

Tae laidir ______________2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________________ 4

YanSno _______________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ________________ 4

M.T. Cranium __________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ________________ 4

JCXBXC _______________1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________________ 3


___ Normal ____________1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________________ 3

_______________________________________________________________________

These would be the scores for any dry outcomes where max temp is greater than 18.8 and sunshine 9.5 hours.

Will revise this table or confirm its accuracy after the 21st. Please note I am taking a few days for holiday time (22nd to 29th roughly) which may mean delays in updating this thread. I will have some internet access though.

There are two scores missing Jpmarn and myself.

M.T. Cranium

Updated scoring for the bonus, I think the two missing scores sank to the bottom of a long file and I must have deleted them along with the leftover spacing above them. Sorry about that JPmarn and Dasa29. Here's the confirmed bonus scoring then ...

BONUS scoring

FORECASTER _________ 21.2 _ 0.0 _ 12.1 h __ super ____ TOTAL



Rikand ________________3 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 2 _______11

BLIZZARD7 ____________ 3 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 2 ______ 11

Pauldry _______________ 3 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 2 _______11

DOCARCH _____________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 1 _______ 9

waterways _____________3 ___ 3 ___ 2 ______ 1 _______ 9

200motels _____________2 ___ 3 ___ 3 ______ 1 _______ 9

Dacogawa _____________ 3 ___ 3 ___ 2 ______ 1 _______ 9

Mr Skinner _____________2 ___ 2 ___ 3 _______________ 7

sryanbruen ____________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 _______________ 7

Rameire ______________ 3 ___ 1 ___ 3 _______________ 7

Joe Public _____________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 2 ________________7

Adam240610 ___________3 ___ 2 ___ 1 _______________ 6

Artane2002 ____________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 3 _______________ 6

Sunflower3 ____________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 1 ________________6


___ Con Sensus ________ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ________________6


Bsal __________________1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ________________5

Kindred Spirit __________ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ________________5

mickger844posts ________1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ________________5

Dasa29 _______________ 3 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________________5

JPmarn _______________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ________________5

John Mac ______________2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________________4

Tae laidir ______________2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________________4

YanSno _______________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ________________4

M.T. Cranium __________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ________________ 4

JCXBXC _______________1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________________ 3


___ Normal ____________1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ________________ 3

_______________________________________________________________________

M.T. Cranium

So, just back in time to gather the fourth week stats before I forget ...

IMT now on 8.9 (could be 9.0 as it is 8.94 with that error still involved). The fourth week averaged 11.0 which is 1.5 above normal.

MAX and MIN have not changed as far as I know. Will check the MS anyway.

PRC is now 113% of normal with this past week at 151% of normal.

SUN is estimated to be around 96% of normal, the fourth week average is around 90% but Dublin has some missing data.

As I am just getting back into the weather there, I won't even guesstimate the finishing values but you probably can.

Also, I fixed up the bonus scoring table as I appear to have deleted two lines of scoring while changing the forecast table order to scoring order.

M.T. Cranium

The month ended with these values ...

IMT was 9.0 (from 9.04) but probably should be 9.1 as Oak Park would be adjusted up 0.1-0.2.

MAX 23.4 and MIN -3.4 (to be confirmed).

PRC ended at 120% of normal.

SUN is estimated at 90%.

Based on these values, provisional scoring follows ...


Provisional scoring for April 2019

FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__ Dublin 21st

Estimated values ________ 9.1_23.0_-3.4_120_090 __ 21.2C_0.0mm_12.1h

_______________________________________________________ TOTAL score


Tae laidir _______________23 _ 13*_ 18 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 2 1 1 ________ 80

waterways ______________19 _ 17*_ 13 _ 05 _ 07 ___ 3 3 2 1 _______70

John Mac _______________19 _ 11*_ 15 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 2 1 1 ________ 67

Adam240610 _____ (-5) __ 24 _ 20*_ 06 _ 09 _ 06 ___ 3 2 1 __ 71-5 = 66

Mr Skinner _____________ 21 _ 01*_ 19 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 2 2 3 ________ 64

Jpmarn ________________ 16 _ 11*_ 14 _ 12 _ 04 ___ 1 2 2 ________62

200motels ______________16 _ 05*_ 17 _ 04 _ 09 ___ 2 3 3 1 ______ 60

Dacogawa ______________13 _ 07*_ 12 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 3 3 2 1 ______ 60

Rikand _________________24 _ 06*_ 06 _ 05 _ 04 ___ 3 3 3 2 ______ 56

BLIZZARD7 ______ (-3) ___17 _ 11*_ 15 _ 00 _ 04 ___ 3 3 3 2 _ 58-3= 55

sryanbruen _____________19 _ 00*_ 19 _ 00 _ 08 ___ 2 3 2 ________ 53

___ Con Sensus _________16 _ 05*_ 15 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 2 2 2 ________ 53

Artane2002 _____________16 _ 03*_ 09 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 1 2 3 ________ 52

Joe Public ______________ 11 _ 14*_ 08 _ 08 _ 04 ___ 2 3 2 ________ 52

Sunflower3 _____________ 15 _ 06*_ 16 _ 03 _ 06 ___ 2 3 1 ________ 52

Pauldry ________________ 11 _ 02*_ 14 _ 08 _ 05 ___ 3 3 3 2 ______ 51

DOCARCH ______________ 20 _ 01*_ 09 _ 03 _ 06 ___ 2 3 3 1 ______ 48

Rameire _______ (-2) ____ 14 _ 00*_ 16 _ 04 _ 09 ___ 3 1 3 __ 50-2= 48

___ Normal ____________ 18 _ 05*_ 06 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 1 1 1 ________ 48

Bsal __________________ 20 _ 00*_ 09 _ 05 _ 06 ___ 1 2 2 ________ 45

dasa29 ________________16 _ 05*_ 01 _ 12 _ 06 ___ 3 1 1 ________ 45

M.T. Cranium ___________14 _ 01*_ 18 _ 02 _ 06 ___ 1 1 2 ________ 45

Kindred Spirit ___________18 _ 05*_ 11 _ 00 _ 05 ___ 1 3 1 ________ 44

YanSno ________________14 _ 05*_ 15 _ 00 _ 06 ___ 1 1 2 ________ 44

JCXBXC ________________11 _ 02*_ 03 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 1 1 1 ________ 38

mickger844posts ________ 06 _ 00*_ 09 _ 03 _ 10 ___ 1 3 1 ________ 33

________________________________________________________________________

Note:

* IMT went to minimum progression scoring but modified format as one raw score (Adam240610) was 18/20, this cut in half all other boosts from the minimum progression.
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(Actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Dublin 21st

Adam240610 _____ (-5) __ 9.0 _ 23.2 _ -2.0 _ 101 _ 110 ___ 17.5 _ 0.5 mm _ 5.5 h

Rikand _________________9.0 _ 21.0 _ -2.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 19.0 _ 0.0 mm _12.0 h

Tae laidir _______________8.9 _ 21.8 _ -3.2 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 16.0 _ 3.2 mm _ 3.2 h

Mr Skinner ______________8.7_ 20.0 _ -3.3 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 15.3 _ 0.5 mm _ 7.2 h

DOCARCH ______________ 8.6 _ 19.2 _ -2.3 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 15.2 _ 0.0 mm _ 8.9 h

Bsal ___________________ 8.6 _ 19.0 _ -2.3 _ 090 _ 108 ___ 14.0 _ 0.1 mm _ 6.0 h

waterways ______________8.5 _ 22.5 _ -4.1 _ 091 _ 105 ___ 16.6 _ 0.0 mm _ 6.2 h

John Mac _______________ 8.5 _ 21.5 _ -2.9 _ 105 _ 098 ___ 15.5 _ 1.2 mm _ 3.8 h

sryanbruen _____________ 8.5 _ 19.0 _ -3.3 _ 075 _ 100 ___ 15.8 _ 0.0 mm _ 5.9 h


___ Normal _____________8.4 _ 20.5 _ -2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.5 _ 2.2 mm _ 4.8 h


Kindred Spirit ___________ 8.4 _ 20.5 _ -2.5 _ 073 _ 115 ___ 14.0 _ 0.0 mm _ 4.1 h

BLIZZARD7 ______ (-3) __ 8.3 _ 21.5 _ -3.9 _ 070 _ 120 ___ 21.0 _ 0.0 mm _ 8.0 h

Jpmarn ________________ 8.2 _ 21.5 _ -2.8 _ 110 _ 120 ___ 14.5 _ 0.8 mm _ 5.8 h


___ Con Sensus _________ 8.2 _ 20.5 _ -2.9 _ 091 _ 110 ___ 15.7 _ 0.1 mm _ 6.1 h


dasa29 ________________ 8.2 _ 20.5 _ -1.5 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 16.5 _ 2.0 mm _ 5.0 h

200motels ______________8.2 _ 20.5 _ -3.1 _ 088 _ 087 ___ 16.3 _ 0.0 mm _ 7.5 h

Artane2002 _____________8.2 _ 20.3 _ -2.3 _ 105 _ 100 ___ 14.9 _ 0.8 mm _ 7.2 h

Sunflower3 _____________8.1 _ 21.0 _ -3.0 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 16.0 _ 0.0 mm _ 4.0 h

YanSno ________________8.0 _ 20.5 _ -3.9 _ 075 _ 110 ___ 14.5 _ 2.0 mm _ 6.5 h

M.T. Cranium ___________ 8.0 _ 20.0 _ -3.2 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 14.5 _ 3.5 mm _ 6.8 h

Rameire _______ (-2) ____ 8.0 _ 19.5 _ -3.0 _ 087 _ 097 ___ 18.0 _ 1.0 mm _ 8.5 h

Dacogawa ______________7.9 _ 21.1 _ -2.6 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 16.8 _ 0.0 mm _ 7.0 h

Joe Public ______________ 7.7 _ 21.9 _ -4.6 _ 099 _ 120 ___ 14.6 _ 0.0 mm _ 5.6 h

JCXBXC _______________ 7.7 _ 20.1 _ -1.7 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 13.8 _ 3.0 mm _ 1.0 h

Pauldry ________________7.7 _ 20.1 _ -2.8 _ 098 _ 115 ___ 16.5 _ 0.0 mm _ 8.0 h

mickger844posts ________ 7.2 _ 18.5 _ -2.3 _ 085 _ 090 ___ 12.5 _ 0.0 mm _ 3.5 h

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M.T. Cranium

The MS confirms that the -9.7 C report from Oak Park is bogus and goes with our -3.4, so that part is good.

For some reason the MAX is listed as 22.9 rather than 23.0, most may benefit with an extra point there. However, daily data still shows 23.0 on 20th (and still shows the bogus -9.7 on 4th). Holding fire until they clear this up.

Also when the dust settles I will check monthly stats and revisit the actual value for IMT, could be an extra point for each of us there also.

Sunshine looks about right on first inspection but Dublin continues to be incomplete so I may need to assess the missing data and do some work on those scores later.

We have a day trip that will cut into my internet time so look for any further updates this evening or overnight depending on how much work it turns out to be, the annual summary will be updated then. At the moment I have not edited the provisional scoring for MAX, will see if the 22.9 is sustained in the report before doing so.

M.T. Cranium

As the minor changes to IMT and MAX would make for uniform changes to scoring, will leave as is, in the belief that Oak Park has been given an average based on the one large error (would then be 0.2 higher, overall IMT 9.08 rather than 9.04), and since the daily data says 23.0 for the same MAX that MS lists as 22.9, will take the 23.0 as correct unless I see the data adjusted. So for now will go with the provisional scoring as confirmed.

Here's the annual scoring update then ...


Annual scoring summary January to April 2019


(rank) _ FORECASTER __________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr ___ 2019 TOTAL (and best 3/4)


_ 01 __ Tae laidir ______________ 70 __ 67 __ 83 __ 80 ___ 300 ___ (233) _ 1

_ 02 __ Sunflower3 _____________77 __ 67 __ 67 __ 52 ___ 263 ___ (211) _ 2

_ 03 __ Adam240610 ___________ 63 __ 65 __ 59 __ 66 ___ 253 ___ (194) _ 6t

_ 04 __ Rameire _______________ 56 __ 77 __ 64 __ 48 ___ 245 ___ (197) _ 4t


_(05)__ Con Sensus_____________61 __ 57 __ 72 __ 53 ___ 243 ___ (190)_(10t)


_ 05 __ DOCARCH ______________63 __ 68 __ 63 __ 48 ___ 242 ___ (194) _ 6t

_ 06 __ Kindred Spirit ___________58 __ 62 __ 77 __ 44 ___ 241 ___ (197) _ 4t

_ 07 __ john mac _______________49 __ 61 __ 63 __ 67 ___ 240 ___ (191) _ 8t

_ 08 __ 200motels ______________48 __ 68 __ 62 __ 60 ___ 238 ___ (190) _10

_ 09 __ MrSkinner ______________70 __ 52 __ 50 __ 64 ___ 236 ___ (186) _11

_ 10 __ Jpmarn ________________ 69 __ 43 __ 60 __ 62 ___ 234 ___ (191) _ 8t

_ 11 __ Rikand _________________62 __ 59 __ 54 __ 56 ___ 231 ___ (175) _18

_ 12 __ pauldry ________________ 55 __ 62 __ 60 __ 51 ___ 228 ___ (177) _17

_t13 __ Bsal ___________________47 __ 58 __ 77 __ 45 ___ 227 ___ (182) _13

_t13 __ waterways _____________ 75 __ 19 __ 63 __ 70 ___ 227 ___ (208) _ 3

_ 15 __ dasa29 ________________ 48 __ 46 __ 85 __ 45 ___ 224 ___ (179) _16

_ 16 __ JCX BXC _______________ 65 __ 53 __ 66 __ 38 ___ 222 ___ (184) _12

_ 17 __ Dacogawa ______________ 41 __ 49 __ 71 __ 60 ___ 221 ___ (180) _14t


_(18)__ NormaL ________________49 __ 60 __ 58 __ 48 ___ 215 ___ (167) _(19)


_ 18 __ mickger844posts ________ 65 __ 47 __ 68 __ 33 ___ 213 ___ (180) _14t

_ 19 __ Artane2002 _____________ 46 __ 60 __ 48 __ 52 ___ 206 ___ (160) _19

_ 20 __ M.T. Cranium ____________45 __ 54 __ 59 __ 45 ___ 203 ___ (158) _20t

_ 21 __ sryanbruen ______________41 __ 42 __ 56 __ 53 ___ 192 ___ (151) _22

_ 22 __ Joe Public _______________62 __ 24 __ 44 __ 52 ___ 182 ___ (158) _20t

_t23 __ YanSno _________________62 __ --- __ --- __ 44 ___ 106 ___ (106) _23t

_t23 __ BLIZZARD7 _____________ 18 __ --- __ 33 __ 55 ___ 106 ___ (106) _23t

_ 25 __ sdanseo ________________ 45 __ 36 __ --- __ --- ____ 81

_ 26 __ bazlers _________________ --- __ ---__ 50 __ --- ____ 50

_ 27 __ Tazio __________________ --- __ 44 __ --- __ --- ____ 44

_ 28 __ derekon ________________ 39 __ --- __ --- __ --- ____ 39
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Congrats to tae laidir for winning April and moving further ahead in the annual contest.

The second total (best 3/4) and ranking gives a more accurate assessment of where you stand as the main contest uses only the ten best scores. Anyone who has missed three contests (including May) is not eligible so these best 3/4 totals and rankings are dropped after 23rd place. YanSno entered May and has missed two otherwise so his/her total is based on 2/4. That one compares more like middle of the pack for average but there's no help for any future low scores when you've missed two already.

The pack is very close now since (other than the leader) ... hmm let's see now tae laidir, the leidir, the leadir, the leader ... and yes I know what it actually means ... so other than tae laidir, most people who were second to about seventh last time had lower scores than the group behind them, so all are now jammed up in a tight chase pack.