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April 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 29-03-2019 11:14pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the I.M.T. (Irish Mean Temperature, average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park, Shannon) ... the 1981-2010 normal value is 8.4 C.

    2. Predict the MAX temperature at any of 25 regular reporting locations on the met.ie website.

    3. Predict the MIN temperature at any of 25 regular reporting locations on the met.ie website.

    4. Predict the PRC (precipitation) which is the average at eleven locations expressed as a percentage of normal. The stations used are the five in (1) above plus Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia.

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) which is the average at six locations expressed as a percentage of normal. The stations used are Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Cork, Shannon and Valentia.

    6. BONUS -- Easter Sunday (21st) is late this year, what kind of weather can Dublin (A) expect? We will go with a three-part bonus where you predict the maximum temperature, the rainfall for the calendar date (mm) and the sunshine hours. Scoring will be based on being in the top, middle or bottom thirds then anyone with 9 will get 3 extra superbonus points, anyone with 8 will get 2 extra and anyone with one high score will get a superbonus if they have at least 3 out of 6 on the remaining two.

    Forecasts:

    MTC _________ 8.0 _ 20.0 _ -3.2 __ 080 __ 110 ___ 14.5 _ 3.5mm _ 6.8h

    Normal _______ 8.4 _ 20.5 _ -2.0 __ 100 __ 100 ___ 13.5 _ 2.2 mm _ 4.8h

    (make yours look like these to speed up my table of forecasts posting. TIA.)

    The on-time deadline is 0300h Monday, 1st of April.

    Late penalties are now 1 point for every four hours late to 19z (possible 10 point deduction by then) followed by one point per hour after that.

    Good luck !!


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry_________ 7.7 _ 20.1_ -2.8 __ 098__ 115 ___ 16.5_ 0mm _ 8h


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels_______8.2___20.5___-3.1___88____87____ 16.3___0mm___7.5hrs


  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3_________ 8.1 _ 21.0_ -3.0 __ 085 __ 110 ___ 16.0_ 0mm _ 4h


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,560 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen _________ 8.5 _ 19.0 _ -3.3 __ 075 __ 100 ___ 15.8 _ 0.0mm _ 5.9h

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 353 ✭✭ YanSno


    YanSno _________ 8.0 _ 20.5 _ -3.9 __ 075 __ 110 ___ 14.5 _ 2.0mm _ 6.5h


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,861 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002 _________ 8.2 _ 20.3 _ -2.3 __ 105 __ 100 ___ 14.9 _ 0.8mm _ 7.2h


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,715 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal _______ 8.6 _ 19.0 _ -2.3 __ 90 __ 108 ___ 14.0 _ 0.1 mm _ 6.0h


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,114 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH _______ 8.6 _ 19.2 _ -2.3 __ 85 __ 110 ___ 15.2 _ 0.0 mm _ 8.9h


  • Registered Users Posts: 318 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 8.4 ___ 20.5 ___ -2.5 ___ 73 ___ 115 ___ 14.0 ___ NIL ___ 4.1 ___


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,565 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ___ 9.0 ___ 21.0 ___ -2.0 ___ 90 ___ 120 ____ 19.0 _ 0.0mm _ maximum sun(whatever the maximum amount can be!) ;)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    dasa29 _________ 8.2 _ 20.5 _ -1.5 __ 110 __ 110 ___ 16.5 _ 2.0mm _ 5.0h


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,997 ✭✭✭ John mac


    John Mac_______ 8.5 _ 21.5 _ -2.9 __ 105 __ 98 ___ 15.5 _ 1.2 mm _ 3.8h


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts _______ 7.2 _ 18.5 _ -2.3 __ 85 __ 90 ___ 12.5 _ 0 mm _ 3.5h


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner____8.7____20.0____-3.3_____100____100____15.3/0.5mm/7.2h


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,746 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public_________ 7.7 _ 21.9 _ -4.6 __ 99 __ 120 ___ 14.6 _ 0mm _ 5.6h


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir _______ 8.9 _ 21.8 _ -3.2 __ 115 __ 95 ___ 16.0 _ 3.2 mm _ 3.2 h


  • Registered Users Posts: 351 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways _______ 8.5 _ 22.5 _ -4.1 __ 91 __ 105 ___ 16.6 _ 0.0 mm _ 6.2h


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,773 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa_______7.9 __ 21.1 __ -2.6 __ 110 __ 105 __ 16.8 _ 0mm _ 7h


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn _______ 8.2 _ 21.5 _ -2.8 __ 110 __ 120 ___ 14.5 _ 0.8 mm _ 5.8h

    The first week is like old March being rather cold and unsettled.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,764 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire_______8.0___19.5___-3.0___87____97____ 18.0___1mm___8.5hrs


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7 _________ 8.3 _ 21.5 _ -3.9 __ 070__ 120___ 21.0 _ 0.0mm _ 8h


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for April, 2019


    FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Dublin 21st


    Adam240610 _____ (-5) __ 9.0 _ 23.2 _ -2.0 _ 101 _ 110 ___ 17.5 _ 0.5 mm _ 5.5 h

    Rikand _________________9.0 _ 21.0 _ -2.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 19.0 _ 0.0 mm _12.0 h

    Tae laidir _______________8.9 _ 21.8 _ -3.2 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 16.0 _ 3.2 mm _ 3.2 h

    Mr Skinner ______________8.7_ 20.0 _ -3.3 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 15.3 _ 0.5 mm _ 7.2 h

    DOCARCH ______________ 8.6 _ 19.2 _ -2.3 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 15.2 _ 0.0 mm _ 8.9 h

    Bsal ___________________ 8.6 _ 19.0 _ -2.3 _ 090 _ 108 ___ 14.0 _ 0.1 mm _ 6.0 h

    waterways ______________8.5 _ 22.5 _ -4.1 _ 091 _ 105 ___ 16.6 _ 0.0 mm _ 6.2 h

    John Mac _______________ 8.5 _ 21.5 _ -2.9 _ 105 _ 098 ___ 15.5 _ 1.2 mm _ 3.8 h

    sryanbruen _____________ 8.5 _ 19.0 _ -3.3 _ 075 _ 100 ___ 15.8 _ 0.0 mm _ 5.9 h


    ___ Normal _____________8.4 _ 20.5 _ -2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.5 _ 2.2 mm _ 4.8 h


    Kindred Spirit ___________ 8.4 _ 20.5 _ -2.5 _ 073 _ 115 ___ 14.0 _ 0.0 mm _ 4.1 h

    BLIZZARD7 ______ (-3) __ 8.3 _ 21.5 _ -3.9 _ 070 _ 120 ___ 21.0 _ 0.0 mm _ 8.0 h

    Jpmarn ________________ 8.2 _ 21.5 _ -2.8 _ 110 _ 120 ___ 14.5 _ 0.8 mm _ 5.8 h


    ___ Con Sensus _________ 8.2 _ 20.5 _ -2.9 _ 091 _ 110 ___ 15.7 _ 0.1 mm _ 6.1 h


    dasa29 ________________ 8.2 _ 20.5 _ -1.5 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 16.5 _ 2.0 mm _ 5.0 h

    200motels ______________8.2 _ 20.5 _ -3.1 _ 088 _ 087 ___ 16.3 _ 0.0 mm _ 7.5 h

    Artane2002 _____________8.2 _ 20.3 _ -2.3 _ 105 _ 100 ___ 14.9 _ 0.8 mm _ 7.2 h

    Sunflower3 _____________8.1 _ 21.0 _ -3.0 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 16.0 _ 0.0 mm _ 4.0 h

    YanSno ________________8.0 _ 20.5 _ -3.9 _ 075 _ 110 ___ 14.5 _ 2.0 mm _ 6.5 h

    M.T. Cranium ___________ 8.0 _ 20.0 _ -3.2 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 14.5 _ 3.5 mm _ 6.8 h

    Rameire _______ (-2) ____ 8.0 _ 19.5 _ -3.0 _ 087 _ 097 ___ 18.0 _ 1.0 mm _ 8.5 h

    Dacogawa ______________7.9 _ 21.1 _ -2.6 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 16.8 _ 0.0 mm _ 7.0 h

    Joe Public ______________ 7.7 _ 21.9 _ -4.6 _ 099 _ 120 ___ 14.6 _ 0.0 mm _ 5.6 h

    JCXBXC _______________ 7.7 _ 20.1 _ -1.7 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 13.8 _ 3.0 mm _ 1.0 h

    Pauldry ________________7.7 _ 20.1 _ -2.8 _ 098 _ 115 ___ 16.5 _ 0.0 mm _ 8.0 h

    mickger844posts ________ 7.2 _ 18.5 _ -2.3 _ 085 _ 090 ___ 12.5 _ 0.0 mm _ 3.5 h

    ________________________________________________________________________

    Con Sensus is the median of 24 forecasts or average of 12th and 13th ranked forecasts.

    Rikand, max sunshine possible is about 13 hours, I went with 12 for you in case that recorder is shaded a bit.

    The consensus for 21st (Dublin) is for a rather warm day with half the field predicting no rain (the median was 0.05 mm rounded up to 0.1). Those 12 are going to score the same and it hurt my brain to try to figure out what that meant for scoring. If there is no rain (or a trace) then these will all score 3. If there is a very small amount, they may also score 3 if they tie for any place better than 5th, otherwise, I think we'll have to go with them all at 2/3 with 5 to 8 only at 3/3. If there are four or fewer that have larger errors, those will bring in these zero forecasts at 1/3. If there are 5 to 8 that have larger errors, those will score 1/3 and the zero forecasts will all be 2/3. As the fourth and fifth highest rain forecasts are 2.0 mm, this is the breakdown for amounts and scoring for the zero forecasts ...

    Actual, mm ___ zero forecast scores

    0.0 to 0.4 ____ 3/3

    0.5 to 1.0 ____ 2/3

    1.1 and above_ 1/3

    Hopefully there won't be too many ties otherwise as I separate the groups into three for scoring.

    (this is the order of precip forecasts for 21st) ...

    0.0 (12) __ 0.1 __ 0.5 (2) __ 0.8 (2) __ 1.0 __ 1.2 __ 2.0 (2) __ 3.0 __ 3.2 __ 3.5


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,565 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    I'm playing golf all day that day. I demand wall to wall sunshine! ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 748 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    Adam240610___9__23.2__-2__101__110__17.5__0.5mm__5.5hrs

    Apologies for being so late, college has been crazy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    JCXBXC_______7.7 __ 20.1 __ -1.7__ 110 __ 105 __ 13.8 _ 3mm _ 1h

    So busy I forgot!


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Thanks, now I think we have a full turnout and I have added Con Sensus to the table.


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Moore Park -1.1 yesterday


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,746 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Tae laidir wrote: »
    Moore Park -1.1 yesterday

    Corrected to -1.0 but doesn't beat Oak Park with -9.7 :eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Looks like the mercy rule for all.

    Though this morning it said -1.1c Oak Park.

    In any case those are the temps till Midnight so prob -2 or -3 or -10 :confused:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,209 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    I saw -3 at Moore Park this morning while preparing the forecast.

    That -9.7 reading at Oak Park is some sort of glitch, the ground minimum is only -0.4. Hourlies never go below freezing.

    Will monitor the daily data section for a correction on that.


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