Next crash . .

handlemaster

When is the next crash coming ? I seen some comments pointing towards this on other threads.... we are 10 years into the recovery. For sure we will have a correction or down turn something in the future but its not easy to predict when that will happen. Prices do seem to have leveled in Dublin the reset of the country will follow.

bluelamp

I think a correction is already in motion in Dublin. Prices have declined very slightly the last couple of months according to the cso statistics.

I've noticed in particular, viewings in the second hand market are a lot quieter than they were late 2017 / early 2018.

Even in a recession we wouldn't have the same drop in house prices as last time. Lending has been so restricted, less investment properties purchased by individuals, we have an undersupply of housing vs oversupply.

There are also a lot of people waiting at the moment who don't see value in the market right now. They are ready to buy when things cool - this will prop up the market a bit in the event of a fall. The argument of "you won't get a mortgage in a crash" isn't true for a lot of people. Plenty of people with a decent deposit and a good job were still getting money in the recession.

If I was to guess, I would say 2019 will see a small overall reduction in prices, by how much is anyone's guess.

Creamy Goodness

July 19th 2021

Tow

May get a Brexit dump (if hard exit etc) , probably be short term much like that happen after in 9/11.

messy tessy

Creamy Goodness wrote: »

July 19th 2021

Morning or afternoon?

Gumbo

bluelamp wrote: »

There are also a lot of people waiting at the moment who don't see value in the market right now. They are ready to buy when things cool - this will prop up the market a bit in the event of a fall. The argument of "you won't get a mortgage in a crash" isn't true for a lot of people. Plenty of people with a decent deposit and a good job were still getting money in the recession.

The only problem with this, is that those that are waiting, may not get a mortgage if the banks decide to stop lending if a crash hits again.

Nobodysrobots

Realistically not in the next 5 years anyway. Supply shortage (plus a construction skills/trade worker shortage), increased cost of construction/land, country heading towards full employment, banks not over-leveraged on mortgage debt due to CB 3.5 salary income and deposit rules, increasing population, etc.

Open to debate on these issues, if anyone disagrees or has a counterargument.

Phileas Frog

Tuesday week

handlemaster

It will be interesting to see when it does happen the people that will sit it out and say the prices will drop further only to cry when they go back up

devlinio

There won't be a crash. There will probably be a 10-20% correction as supply increases, but there is no basis for a crash.

The extent of what happened 9 years ago is rare, and might not happen for other 30-40 years.

SSeanSS

devlinio wrote: »

There won't be a crash. There will probably be a 10-20% correction as supply increases, but there is no basis for a crash.

The extent of what happened 9 years ago is rare, and might not happen for other 30-40 years.

Wishful thinking here. I like your optimism but I think there will always be a next recession..

ELM327

July 19th

Same day as the Ice Age ended and marathon became snickers.

Truckermal

handlemaster wrote: »

When is the next crash coming ? I seen some comments pointing towards this on other threads.... we are 10 years into the recovery. For sure we will have a correction or down turn something in the future but its not easy to predict when that will happen. Prices do seem to have leveled in Dublin the reset of the country will follow.

How the hell are we 10 years into the recovery?

ELM327

Truckermal wrote: »

How the hell are we 10 years into the recovery?

In 2009 I spent most of the year on the dole. As did (not literally but probably not far off) half the country.


The true bottom was probably 2008 H2 to 2012. We're probably 4 years into a real recovery. At best.

devlinio

SSeanSS wrote: »

Wishful thinking here. I like your optimism but I think there will always be a next recession..

Yes, there will be a recession. But not a crash like was had a decade ago. That was extreme, and we won't witness sometime quite as and next time around

Sonny678

Every economist is predicting a recession very soon. We might be only revovered a few years but the world economy has been recovering since the start of the decade. And we are very much an open economy, if USA declines we declines.

Anyway the predictions by economists worldwide r a recession in next two to three years. It could happen this year in 2019. But allot of ecominists are saying autumn 2020. And they r saying a recession will happem no later then early 2021. So anytime in next 20 months and possibly around US presidental election in autumn 2020.

German economy is stalling and US economy has had about 8 years of growth, that cannot last forver. Recessions are certainties in economies. Look at the last 40 years. You had worldwide recession in 70s with oil crisis. Then u had another recession in 80s. Another recession around early 90s. Internet boom then bust and asian counteries economy recession in 90s also. Then u had years of growth in 00s with the crash in 08. So we have had about 9 years world growth. A recession is just around the corner. American stock market was booming lately again, shares are way overpriced not a great sign. So the question is not if a recession will happen but how bad. Will it be a normal ression or something similar to 08?.

The worrying thing is allot of the problems that were in 08 have not being delt with. Countries debt like US and China is massive. And many economist believe if we had another massive crash it could make 08 look like a blip. The threats to world econmy eg Brext of course , Trump's trade war with China .

A massive problem is Chinas debt. It is massive. If that became an issue well then 2008 would be a economic blip compared to China debt problem. 08 could be a once in a generation event. But the problems in the banks throughout the world are still an issue. So its hards to know what is around the corner. But one thing is certain a recesion is around the corner.

USA had many recessions since World war 2 .
US had recessions in 1948 , 1953 , early 1960s , 1970, 1973 , 1980 to 81, 1990 -91, 2001, 2008- 09.
So u can see it basically see a thread of recession nearly under every 10 years or so in USA. If u follow the above thread a US recession is either this year or next year.

USA had a recession
at the start of 1960s ,
at start of 1970s,
at start of the 1980s,
at start of 1990s,
at start of 00s
and end of 00s.
So recession in early 2020s after 8 or 9 years of growth is definitely on the cards if that thread continues.

And many US economist have already indicated the US economy is already showing signs of turning. US had had 47 recessions since Independence.

skallywag

A good question albeit impossible to answer.

A serious crash will most likely have it's roots and causes outside of what we in Ireland can influence, e.g. think Lehman in 2008. It will just depend then on how vulnerable we ourselves are at that particular time.

The global economic climate is very hazardous at the moment with an awful lot of uncertainty (e.g. consequences of Brexit, mid to long term influence on large trade deals out of the US, general movement back towards nationalism and self interest as opposed to collaboration, etc.) in play.

I certainly would not think that another crash is out of the question.

Pussyhands

Nobodysrobots wrote: »

Realistically not in the next 5 years anyway. Supply shortage (plus a construction skills/trade worker shortage), increased cost of construction/land, country heading towards full employment, banks not over-leveraged on mortgage debt due to CB 3.5 salary income and deposit rules, increasing population, etc.

Open to debate on these issues, if anyone disagrees or has a counterargument.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ubs-1-month-jump-in-us-recession-risk-highest-since-1989-2019-3?r=US&IR=T

America sneezes...

Pussyhands

The worrying thing is that we recovered extremely quickly after the GFC. Interest rates were cut and they've remained cut since. It feels like we're on borrowed time to be honest.

You'd wonder how much the modern world has impacted on the economy though, everyone is connected in real time now. Things can't get out of hand before it's too late now you'd think.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Recovered extremely quickly? We are apparently in the middle of a housing crisis.

ELM327

Christine Faithful Ticker wrote: »

Recovered extremely quickly? We are apparently in the middle of a housing crisis.

There's no housing crisis, there's a mismanagement by the government - their interference caused the mess, with RPZ and rent allowance.

q85dw7osi4lebg

ELM327 wrote: »

There's no housing crisis, there's a mismanagement by the government - their interference caused the mess, with RPZ and rent allowance.

I agree, just hilarious that some posters think we have recovered too quickly and an recession is imminent despite the state of our interfered with property market.

Pussyhands

Christine Faithful Ticker wrote: »

Recovered extremely quickly? We are apparently in the middle of a housing crisis.

There's a housing crisis because the economy is absolutely flying.

ELM327

Christine Faithful Ticker wrote: »

I agree, just hilarious that some posters think we have recovered too quickly and an recession is imminent despite the state of our interfered with property market.

Agree. However

recession=/= crash


Italy is already in recession. Recession is a technical term based on specific financial datapoints and is largely irrelevant to the man on the street.


A crash however will see him lose his pension or lose his shirt on his investments or property portfolio

Sonny678

ELM327 wrote:

Agree. However

ELM327 wrote:

Italy is already in recession. Recession is a technical term based on specific financial datapoints and is largely irrelevant to the man on the street.

ELM327 wrote:

recession=/= crash

ELM327 wrote:

A crash however will see him lose his pension or lose his shirt on his investments or property portfolio

A recession doesnt effect the man on the street.

1 World wide recession in 70s caused by oil crisis. Unemployment rockets in Irelands, people are queuing up for hours for petrol.

2 World wide recession in 80s. Ireland again unemployment is very high and emigration the highest since 1950s.

3 Worldwide recession in early 90s. Again Irish economy in poor state unemployment high.

4 Worldwide recession in 08. Unemployment high , emigration high, peoples savings , investments , living standards r all negatively effected.

Recession does impact ordinary people. Ireland has had 11 recessions since 1945. In all those recessions there was negative impact on the man on the street. Every economist worth his salt is saying a recession in next 12 to 24 months. It doesnt matter how long Ireland has recovered. The world economy has been recovering for 8 to 9 years especially the USA. Economies go in cycles. We r definatly at the end of this current growth period . And if something like a Chinese debt crisis or another euro crisis where example Italy not Greece is in meltdown, when then another 08 or worse is possible. The whole Irish economy is very open to the whole world econony. If there is worldwide recession it effects this country greatly. And yes it does effect man on the street from jobs, to government investment, to bank loans from education, infrastructure , health and yes housing crisis. All these areas will lack funding and investment and a recession wouldnt help the housing crisis.
As I said recession in Autumn 2020 is most likely. A recession in early 2020s is almost a certainty.

ELM327

Those you mention were crashes. Oil crises, Dot com bubble, bank runs, etc.
Simple recessions do not have the same impact as a crash.

Sonny678

ELM327 wrote:

Those you mention were crashes. Oil crises, Dot com bubble, bank runs, etc. Simple recessions do not have the same impact as a crash.

US recession
Recession in the US 1960 to 1961
Recession in the US 1969 to 1970
Recession in the US 1973 to 1975
Recession in the US 1980 to 1981
Recession in the US 1990 to 1991
Recession in the US 2000 to 2001
Recession in the US 2007 to 2009

Some of those recessions where worse then others. 70s was oil crisis and 90s dot com bubble. But they are still labelled recessions. American economy has about 8 to 10 years growth and then recession. Recession is very very likely this year or next year or 2021 at latest. Some are worse then others. But the above are the official US recessions since 1960s. And everytime US economy declined the Irish economy declined.

ELM327

I don't see there being a crash style recession a lá the dot com bubble or the 2008 crash. But I would agree that a minor correction is likely, globally, within the next 24 months. Even if there is no brexit.

Franz Von Peppercorn

SSeanSS wrote: »

Wishful thinking here. I like your optimism but I think there will always be a next recession..

He didn’t say there wouldn’t be a recession but that prices wouldn’t fall as much as last time. The last boom was credit driven. This one isn’t. It’s genuine supply demand issues and so when supply increases prices will stagnate or fall but not crash.

Sleeper12

Seems to be a "when is the next crash coming" thread every few weeks.

The reality is that we've only ever had one property crash in Ireland. No one knows what no deal Brexit will do to our economy or the trump effect but taking out these events it's highly unlikely that we will have a crash in the next 5 years at least.

Bottom line is that we have a housing shortage & we are unlikely to see any downward price direction till supply catches up with demand

Franz Von Peppercorn

Sonny678 wrote: »

US recession
Recession in the US 1960 to 1961
Recession in the US 1969 to 1970
Recession in the US 1973 to 1975
Recession in the US 1980 to 1981
Recession in the US 1990 to 1991
Recession in the US 2000 to 2001
Recession in the US 2007 to 2009

Some of those recessions where worse then others. 70s was oil crisis and 90s dot com bubble. But they are still labelled recessions. American economy has about 8 to 10 years growth and then recession. Recession is very very likely this year or next year or 2021 at latest. Some are worse then others. But the above are the official US recessions since 1960s. And everytime US economy declined the Irish economy declined.

And how many of those recessions led to a property crash of the kind that we saw in 2008?

Nobodysrobots

Sonny678 wrote: »

US recession
Recession in the US 1960 to 1961
Recession in the US 1969 to 1970
Recession in the US 1973 to 1975
Recession in the US 1980 to 1981
Recession in the US 1990 to 1991
Recession in the US 2000 to 2001
Recession in the US 2007 to 2009

Some of those recessions where worse then others. 70s was oil crisis and 90s dot com bubble. But they are still labelled recessions. American economy has about 8 to 10 years growth and then recession. Recession is very very likely this year or next year or 2021 at latest. Some are worse then others. But the above are the official US recessions since 1960s. And everytime US economy declined the Irish economy declined.

And yet property (as an investment anyway) has not only survived those countless recessions, it has performed extraordinarily well and will likely continue to in the long-term future. If I was trying to protect any significant amount of wealth over the long-term future (say next 50 years) I would place a large % into property. This is what the REITs are doing right now, pumping billions into the Irish property market.

Sonny678

ELM327 wrote:

I don't see there being a crash style recession a lá the dot com bubble or the 2008 crash. But I would agree that a minor correction is likely, globally, within the next 24 months. Even if there is no brexit.

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote:

He didn’t say there wouldn’t be a recession but that prices wouldn’t fall as much as last time. The last boom was credit driven. This one isn’t. It’s genuine supply demand issues and so when supply increases prices will stagnate or fall but not crash.

There might not be a crash. Hopefully not. But there is massive issues in the world economy. China debt crisis , eurocrisis , impact of brexit, another banking crisis. Some of the statistics for countries debt and other economic areas since 08 have worsened. Trumps trade war with China that cud really threaten the world economy. Trump has overheated the American ecomony big time. Thats not good. If u look at stock market prices and compare to other times in history. There are very worrying signs here. Some of the economic data out there suggests things are worse now in terms of economic climate then 08.
And if there is a crash in 08 to 10 u had Gordon Brown and Obama, people in charge who were working together to try sort things out in the global economy. Imagine if there was a crash and Trump is in charge of the USA. I cannot see the cross government action we saw after 08 happening now.
A recession will likely happen , how bad I dont know. But there is massive underlying problems in the world economy, that have not been dealt with, especially Chinas debt, if that ever becomes a crisis , that wud lead to a serious crash worldwide . China and American are the countries to look out for.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Pussyhands wrote: »

There's a housing crisis because the economy is absolutely flying.

If the economy was flying, everyone would be earning enough to buy a home and not be hoping for a recession for prices come down.

Arthur Daley

Trump would probaly seek to do what he has always done throughout his 'entreprenurial career'. Default and walk away.

tvjunki

You are talking about the next recession. Most of the population have not recovered from the last one!!
The banks are still limiting what they give in mortgages and delaying releasing funds. This has a knock on effect on the market.

Sonny678

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote:

And how many of those recessions led to a property crash of the kind that we saw in 2008?

Prior 1990s Ireland was a an economic basket case. One of the poorest areas in western Europe. We werent selling and buying houses for extraordinary prices in 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s. It was in the 1990s Irish economy really grew and the price of property exploded.

America has had many property bubbles. American property peaks every 18 years.

First bust and boom property bubble in USA was in 1830s around the time of gold rush. 1837 is the first US property bust.
Another boom and bust begins in the USA in 1850s.
In 1873 another bust in America in property.
Massive property crash in the USA in 1930s.
The property market doesnt take of til 1950s.
Another property crash in America in early 1970s.
The next property crash is in 1991 in the USA.
Another crash in 08 in property in the USA.

In 1930s there was boom in Uk property.
In the 1940s housebuilding halted in Uk.
In the 1950s there was a boom in Uk property. In the 1960s still a boom in Uk property.
In 1970s a property bust in the Uk after so called Barber boom .
A second property boom bust in Uk in 1980s. House prices rose by 20% or more in late 80s.
In 1990s a massive bust in Uk property after boom of late 80s. A record number of house repossesions happened in 90s as property prices fell every year in 90s. Upturn at the end of 90s.
A third boom and bust happened in the uk in 00s. With recession in 2008 leading to lowest housebuilding in Uk since 1930s.

Uk have had 3 massive property crashes in 40 years. The US have a property crash every 18 years or so. These are how developed countries have crashs. Ireland in the past economy was very limited. Property crashs are very common in developed countries.

Japan had a massive property boom in 1980s. Japans property bust in 1990. Japan had another boom from 2002 to 08 with Toyko house prices rising by about 70%. A bubble burst in 08. Japan since earthquakes in early part of decade is having another property boom.
Uk USA and Japan and many more countries have had boom bust property markets for generations.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Sonny678 wrote: »

Prior 1990s Ireland was a an economic basket case. One of the poorest areas in western Europe. We werent selling and buying houses for extraordinary prices in 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s. It was in the 1990s Irish economy really grew and the price of property exploded.

America has had many property bubbles. American property peaks every 18 years.

First bust and boom property bubble in USA was in 1830s around the time of gold rush. 1837 is the first US property bust.
Another boom and bust begins in the USA in 1850s.
In 1873 another bust in America in property.
Massive property crash in the USA in 1930s.
The property market doesnt take of til 1950s.
Another property crash in America in early 1970s.
The next property crash is in 1991 in the USA.
Another crash in 08 in property in the USA.

In 1930s there was boom in Uk property.
In the 1940s housebuilding halted in Uk.
In the 1950s there was a boom in Uk property. In the 1960s still a boom in Uk property.
In 1970s a property bust in the Uk after so called Barber boom .
A second property boom bust in Uk in 1980s. House prices rose by 20% or more in late 80s.
In 1990s a massive bust in Uk property after boom of late 80s. A record number of house repossesions happened in 90s as property prices fell every year in 90s. Upturn at the end of 90s.
A third boom and bust happened in the uk in 00s. With recession in 2008 leading to lowest housebuilding in Uk since 1930s.

Uk have had 3 massive property crashes in 40 years. The US have a property crash every 18 years or so. These are how developed countries have crashs. Ireland in the past economy was very limited. Property crashs are very common in developed countries.

Japan had a massive property boom in 1980s. Japans property bust in 1990. Japan had another boom from 2002 to 08 with Toyko house prices rising by about 70%. A bubble burst in 08. Japan since earthquakes in early part of decade is having another property boom.
Uk USA and Japan and many more countries have had boom bust property markets for generations.

So nothing to do with Ireland then.

The last crash was driven by over leveraged credit. Provided that doesn’t happen this time there won’t be a similar crash here. Many recessions come and go with stagnating property prices but not the kind of crash we saw in 2008.

Even if it does happen there won’t be any mortgages available so I wouldn’t wait for it.

KevinCavan

I can’t see how rents will continue to rise indefinitely. People will surely stop coming here to work, when it becomes common knowledge that a room in Dublin will set them back €1000 per month. I think if skilled foreigners start jumping ship from here, we are fecked, because the rental market will collapse. In that event landlords will sell on their properties.

Giveaway

As long as ze Germans do not devalue the euro to stimulate their falling economy i may make some good investments in the next recession

rightmove

KevinCavan wrote: »

I can’t see how rents will continue to rise indefinitely. People will surely stop coming here to work, when it becomes common knowledge that a room in Dublin will set them back €1000 per month. I think if skilled foreigners start jumping ship from here, we are fecked, because the rental market will collapse. In that event landlords will sell on their properties.

LL already leaving. Get rid of rpz may help

DopeTech

Creamy Goodness wrote: »

July 19th 2021

I thought that was the day the ice age ends?

Zenify

Sonny678 wrote: »

Prior 1990s Ireland was a an economic basket case. One of the poorest areas in western Europe. We werent selling and buying houses for extraordinary prices in 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s. It was in the 1990s Irish economy really grew and the price of property exploded.

America has had many property bubbles. American property peaks every 18 years.

First bust and boom property bubble in USA was in 1830s around the time of gold rush. 1837 is the first US property bust.
Another boom and bust begins in the USA in 1850s.
In 1873 another bust in America in property.
Massive property crash in the USA in 1930s.
The property market doesnt take of til 1950s.
Another property crash in America in early 1970s.
The next property crash is in 1991 in the USA.
Another crash in 08 in property in the USA.

In 1930s there was boom in Uk property.
In the 1940s housebuilding halted in Uk.
In the 1950s there was a boom in Uk property. In the 1960s still a boom in Uk property.
In 1970s a property bust in the Uk after so called Barber boom .
A second property boom bust in Uk in 1980s. House prices rose by 20% or more in late 80s.
In 1990s a massive bust in Uk property after boom of late 80s. A record number of house repossesions happened in 90s as property prices fell every year in 90s. Upturn at the end of 90s.
A third boom and bust happened in the uk in 00s. With recession in 2008 leading to lowest housebuilding in Uk since 1930s.

Uk have had 3 massive property crashes in 40 years. The US have a property crash every 18 years or so. These are how developed countries have crashs. Ireland in the past economy was very limited. Property crashs are very common in developed countries.

Japan had a massive property boom in 1980s. Japans property bust in 1990. Japan had another boom from 2002 to 08 with Toyko house prices rising by about 70%. A bubble burst in 08. Japan since earthquakes in early part of decade is having another property boom.
Uk USA and Japan and many more countries have had boom bust property markets for generations.

I've had the exact same thought as that for a long time. You've done a bit of research to add some good facts to it.

Pussyhands

Christine Faithful Ticker wrote: »

If the economy was flying, everyone would be earning enough to buy a home and not be hoping for a recession for prices come down.

Price of housing is high because there's a massive number of great jobs in this country.

Look up Irish GDP. Look up wage growth. Look up unemployment rate.

handlemaster

KevinCavan wrote: »

I can’t see how rents will continue to rise indefinitely. People will surely stop coming here to work, when it becomes common knowledge that a room in Dublin will set them back €1000 per month. I think if skilled foreigners start jumping ship from here, we are fecked, because the rental market will collapse. In that event landlords will sell on their properties.

If people.come for work they usually have the all the facts in this age of the internet .

q85dw7osi4lebg

Pussyhands wrote: »

Price of housing is high because there's a massive number of great jobs in this country.

Look up Irish GDP. Look up wage growth. Look up unemployment rate.

Then it's all hunky dory, high prices but also high wages so we can all afford lovely homes.

What do you think the underlying cause will be for this imminent nationwide crash?

ZX7R

I don't know if this post will make sense,
A person I know works as a banking adviseor, travels all over the world working with banks.
I asked him how long this boom Will last and he replied to me in layman's terms.
He said Ireland is not in a boom but in econic recovery and will be for at least another 6 year's, Irish banking have tight requirements for mortgages and untill they feel it safe to relax these requirements there is little worries of any crash.
He expects a real property boom in 8 to ten years time and a crash 5 year's there after.
I only ask him as I will be emagrating in 3years and will be selling the family home.

Sonny678

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote:

So nothing to do with Ireland then.

Ireland is not a great example for property bust boom because simply up to 30 years ago we were a very poor country. Ireland in 40s 50s 60s 70s 80s economy was limited and very backward. People didnt have money. Living standards were poor. We were the sickman of western europe in ecominic terms. It was only since mid 1990s did Irish ecomony develop. And we had a boom in 00s.

However we can see in other developed countries USA have been having property boom and bust since 1800s. USA have property bust every 18 years. Uk have had 3 massive property booms and busts in 40 years. Japan have had 2 property boom and bust in 30 years.

Yes Ireland has had property rises and drops before. But there are very few records prior to 1970s. What records we have we can say this. The few records for Dublin and rest of the country we can say house prices collapsed in the first half of 20th century. A price of house in Dublin fell 88% from 1910 to 1940.

1700s there was increase in house prices in Ireland
In 1720s and 1740s there was a decline in house prices in Ireland with famine.
There was big growth in house prices in in Ireland in late 1700s.
House prices drop again in 1820s after Act of Union.
House prices drop around the Irish famine in 1840s 1850s and increase again by end 1890s in Ireland.
House prices from 1900 to 1940s ib Ireland have another massive drop.
House prices see massive increase in 1940s. Now house prices in Ireland are 7 times the price a house was in 1800.
The early 1900s saw biggest decline of prices ever in Ireland.
Again there is lack of houses built in 1950s but increase in 1960s and 70s. And that bring us to the property madness of Celtic Tiger. Irish property prices have gone up and down for 300 years, sometimes quite dramatically. The recent bust in property in Ireland was the most dramatic in our history. But it also is one of the most dramatic and biggest bust in any developed countries history in modern history.

ESRI warned last year we could have property crash. Even though it is not fuelled by credit. Big investment funds and foriegn buy to let firms are the difference in this property boom. ESRI said these foreign funds could stop and disappear and this would send house prices crashing. OECD have also warned there could be a property crash here. The Irish property market according to experts is the most volatile property market in the world. For example in the boom in Ireland prices grew by 400 % in twenty years and fell by 50%. In the Uk the next most volatile market property grew by 240% in the boom and fell by 7 %.

devlinio

ZX7R wrote: »

I don't know if this post will make sense,
A person I know works as a banking adviseor, travels all over the world working with banks.
I asked him how long this boom Will last and he replied to me in layman's terms.
He said Ireland is not in a boom but in econic recovery and will be for at least another 6 year's, Irish banking have tight requirements for mortgages and untill they feel it safe to relax these requirements there is little worries of any crash.
He expects a real property boom in 8 to ten years time and a crash 5 year's there after.
I only ask him as I will be emagrating in 3years and will be selling the family home.

Interesting to note.

handlemaster

ZX7R wrote: »

I don't know if this post will make sense,
A person I know works as a banking adviseor, travels all over the world working with banks.
I asked him how long this boom Will last and he replied to me in layman's terms.
He said Ireland is not in a boom but in econic recovery and will be for at least another 6 year's, Irish banking have tight requirements for mortgages and untill they feel it safe to relax these requirements there is little worries of any crash.
He expects a real property boom in 8 to ten years time and a crash 5 year's there after.
I only ask him as I will be emagrating in 3years and will be selling the family home.

I think we are such a small open economy if there is a recession in the US we will be hit hard.

Wanderer78

Sonny678 wrote: »

Ireland is not a great example for property bust boom because simply up to 30 years ago we were a very poor country. Ireland in 40s 50s 60s 70s 80s economy was limited and very backward. People didnt have money. Living standards were poor. We were the sickman of western europe in ecominic terms. It was only since mid 1990s did Irish ecomony develop. And we had a boom in 00s.

However we can see in other developed countries USA have been having property boom and bust since 1800s. USA have property bust every 18 years. Uk have had 3 massive property booms and busts in 40 years. Japan have had 2 property boom and bust in 30 years.

Yes Ireland has had property rises and drops before. But there are very few records prior to 1970s. What records we have we can say this. The few records for Dublin and rest of the country we can say house prices collapsed in the first half of 20th century. A price of house in Dublin fell 88% from 1910 to 1940.

1700s there was increase in house prices in Ireland
In 1720s and 1740s there was a decline in house prices in Ireland with famine.
There was big growth in house prices in in Ireland in late 1700s.
House prices drop again in 1820s after Act of Union.
House prices drop around the Irish famine in 1840s 1850s and increase again by end 1890s in Ireland.
House prices from 1900 to 1940s ib Ireland have another massive drop.
House prices see massive increase in 1940s. Now house prices in Ireland are 7 times the price a house was in 1800.
The early 1900s saw biggest decline of prices ever in Ireland.
Again there is lack of houses built in 1950s but increase in 1960s and 70s. And that bring us to the property madness of Celtic Tiger. Irish property prices have gone up and down for 300 years, sometimes quite dramatically. The recent bust in property in Ireland was the most dramatic in our history. But it also is one of the most dramatic and biggest bust in any developed countries history in modern history.

ESRI warned last year we could have property crash. Even though it is not fuelled by credit. Big investment funds and foriegn buy to let firms are the difference in this property boom. ESRI said these foreign funds could stop and disappear and this would send house prices crashing. OECD have also warned there could be a property crash here. The Irish property market according to experts is the most volatile property market in the world. For example in the boom in Ireland prices grew by 400 % in twenty years and fell by 50%. In the Uk the next most volatile market property grew by 240% in the boom and fell by 7 %.

patience, Canada and Australia look like could be contenders for our thrown!