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Saturday/Sunday Wintry Potential

  • 08-03-2019 9:52pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    Lots of interest this weekend as some cold uppers move over us Saturday night into Sunday. Could be quite a bit of snow falling and possibly lying by the end of the weekend. After such a mild Winter nice to at least see a bit of late potential!


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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Certainly looks wintry JanuarySnowstor. The charts are starting to show fair accumulations in the North of the Country . I think it was HighDef that pointed out it is a very similar set up as last Sunday but the snow falling more North. This time als the uppers are colder.


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    arpegeuk-45-50-0_nrq5.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 81 ✭✭✭ KingBobby


    Do you think there could be disruptive road conditions for Sunday? Just wondering will a Sunday event in Kildare be impacted.

    Thanks!


  • Registered Users Posts: 314 ✭✭ donal.hunt


    KingBobby wrote: »
    Do you think there could be disruptive road conditions for Sunday? Just wondering will a Sunday event in Kildare be impacted.

    Thanks!

    If it's similar to last weekend, yes it's likely roads conditions (and congestion) will be impacted. What do expect when everyone uses summer tyres all year round??

    Like last weekend, it's going to be unpredictable where will and will not get impacted. Nowcasts are likely to be the best info.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Wind gusts from the ARPEGE . Not a storm but quite windy on coasts. Warnings will be issued more than likely, probably yellow for wind , could get a yellow for snow and Ice also.

    anim_rtg3.gif

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    Quite windy also from the ECM and blustery across the country

    95Ph2b7.png

    ICON looking quite windy Sunday.

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    a different set up from the WRF - NMM but still showing snow accumulations , even in the SW


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    HIRLAM HI RES just coming into range .

    Models differing, looks like not as much moisture available this time so accumulations may be less but it looks colder so lying snow might last longer.


    anim_keo4.gif

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    Accumulations by 07.00 . AROME did well last weekend

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Oscar Bravo had posted this already , will add it here also as important to this thread.



    From met Eireann

    A highly mobile Atlantic regime looks set to dominate our weather pattern through this weekend and the coming week. This will bring a sustained period of unsettled, often very windy and at times wintry weather with showers of hail, sleet and snow.

    https://www.met.ie/forecasts/atlanti...ation-pressure

    A very strong Jet Stream will help to push some vigorous and potentially disruptive Atlantic weather systems over Ireland during the period.

    Strong and blustery winds look likely to feature from Saturday (9th March) through to at least Wednesday (13th) with frequent gales at sea. Sea conditions will be very rough and there will be exceptionally high seas and swell in Atlantic coastal regions at times.

    There is certainly potential for warnings to be issued over the coming days, so please do stay up to date with the Met Éireann forecast.

    https://www.met.ie/forecasts/national-forecast

    https://www.met.ie/warnings


  • Registered Users Posts: 529 ✭✭✭ aisling86


    Just spotted this ....


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,180 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    I could be wrong, but I don't think snow will be nearly as widespread as it was last Sunday. Most of the snow looks confined to the North-West and Northern Ireland. By tomorrow evening we should have a better guess at where the snow will fall and by how much.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Looking at the temperatures a bit closer for Sunday and at the moment you would think they are too high for settling snow on lower ground in general during daylight hours. Looks quite cold Sunday morning so snow may be on the ground already in parts of the Northern half of the country, how long it will last ? Looks like a showery day Sunday giving wintry falls. Would expect that if it falls as snow then it would only settle on high ground during the day.

    Still a bit to go models still not fully aligned even at this late stage.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58




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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,180 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Hirlam is going for mostly rain away from the north and high ground locations on Sunday.

    hirlamuk-1-45-0.png?08-23

    GFS shows more snow potential and usually overdoes it

    45-574UK.GIF?08-18

    Icon is excluding the snow to Northern Ireland.

    iconeu_uk1-1-37-0.png?08-22

    Arpege is a rain to snow event with most snow over the north.

    arpegeuk-1-44-0.png?08-17


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,393 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    Status Yellow - Snow-ice warning for Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Longford, Louth, Meath, Leitrim, Roscommon and Sligo

    Wintry showers overnight and early on Saturday will give a risk of snowfall accumulations of 1 to 5 cm.

    Valid: Saturday 09 March 2019 01:00 to Saturday 09 March 2019 08:00
    Issued: Friday 08 March 2019 22:00
    Updated: Friday 08 March 2019 22:00


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    I think if its too windy therel be no snow. The last snow we got in NW at end of January was because cold air was calm. This windy weather will bring snow to Northern Ireland but only slight amonts to Sligo.

    Dont see many areas outside Ulster getting much.

    Very short lived too once the sun gets to work on it Sunday

    Still March seems to be our new Winter


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,809 ✭✭✭✭ AMKC


    pauldry wrote: »
    I think if its too windy therel be no snow. The last snow we got in NW at end of January was because cold air was calm. This windy weather will bring snow to Northern Ireland but only slight amonts to Sligo.

    Dont see many areas outside Ulster getting much.

    Very short lived too once the sun gets to work on it Sunday

    Still March seems to be our new Winter


    I hope your right. We got snow last weekend don't want anymore. The seasons are really fecked up do. Its supposed to be getting warmer now not colder.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,183 ✭✭✭ sdanseo


    Ah yes, Red Bull. That famous bastion of accurate weather analysis.

    How have we not looked to them for the answers before now?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,502 Alex Brave Garlic


    sdanseo wrote: »
    Ah yes, Red Bull. That famous bastion of accurate weather analysis.

    How have we not looked to them for the answers before now?

    Well they do employ the use of professional meteorologists..


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,364 ✭✭✭ highdef


    I'm with Meteorite58 and Gonzo, in that I currently don't foresee anything too wintry in terms of snow accumulations (or even falling snow), except in some northern areas, mostly high ground. The low would need to a smidgen further south than the current forecast track in order for more populated areas (cough cough...the Greater Dublin Area) to be in with a chance of some white gold.

    I'll give judgement tomorrow evening as to what my thoughts are....if I'm online, that is.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ARPEGE 18Z showing a fair dumping of snow from about 03.00 to about 11.00 Sun in the Northern half of the country , roughly if you draw a line across from Galway to Dublin and above that will be in the firing line , so thinking that it looks like there could be lying snow in that area Sun morning , how long will it last will depend on depth, height of ground and shelter and further wintry showers . Sun is getting strong but in all could see some lying snow much of the day in places that get maybe more than 5 cm and is a bit sheltered .An area with a good coating will in itself help to keep the temp down.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,364 ✭✭✭ highdef


    ARPEGE 18Z showing a fair dumping of snow from about 03.00 to about 11.00 Sun in the Northern half of the country , roughly if you draw a line across from Galway to Dublin and above that will be in the firing line , so thinking that it looks like there could be lying snow in that area Sun morning , how long will it last will depend on depth, height of ground and shelter and further wintry showers . Sun is getting strong but in all could see some lying snow much of the day in places that get maybe more than 5 cm and is a bit sheltered .An area with a good coating will in itself help to keep the temp down.

    The precipitation falling during the night time period does help but looking further into the ARPEGE model, DPs are generally a little above 0c (a few areas showing 0c), temperatures are almost all above 0c too. As it stands, I've a feeling that this event will be on the wrong side of marginal for nearly everyone.

    Last weekends event showed a lot more potential when the event was less than 36 hours away with cross model agreement between three different models that a decent fall of snow was likely for a large part of Ireland. This time, there's just not enough support being shown.

    Let's see what the various models show tomorrow.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 489 ✭✭ Mullaghteelin


    Sunday afternoon, into the early hours of Monday has a very potent upper cold pool crossing the northern half of the country. Surely coastal counties of the west and north will be in the firing line for nasty squally showers with a risk of thunder?
    500hPa temperatures of -40C, usually means sit up and take notice!

    I suspect some lucky places will see a significant dumping of snow by Monday morning, even if its all melted again by 11am.


  • Registered Users Posts: 256 ✭✭ Mount Vesuvius


    Fairly potent sleet, snow event especially on higher ground showing up on the HiRes Arome Saturday night, Sunday morning for parts of the country. Some lower levels could do well too.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    Met Eireann will very likely issue a snow warning at some stage this morning. Quite a dumping for favoured places in the North and West.
    For the rebel county our best chance is Sunday after 3pm when a showery trough crosses the southwest.
    Also Wednesday looking quite stormy probably deserves it's own thread


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭ Mortelaro


    Just to say,if people in large towns get a disruptive snowfall again this weekend, the met Éireann website wont be much good to them as of now anyway...
    Pretty Bad!!

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  • Registered Users Posts: 475 ✭✭ bazlers


    Met eirean were quiet bullish for snow overnight on radio 1at 07.55. high ground, Midlands and Ulster most at risk from first band early night then late night/ early morning, Connacht again Ulster and north Midlands obviously high ground in those areas most at risk from disruption.

    That's just what I remember taking from forecast this morning, possibly change at lunch and so on...


  • Registered Users Posts: 503 ✭✭✭ Wine Goddess


    bazlers wrote: »
    Met eirean were quiet bullish for snow overnight on radio 1at 07.55. high ground, Midlands and Ulster most at risk from first band early night then late night/ early morning, Connacht again Ulster and north Midlands obviously high ground in those areas most at risk from disruption.

    That's just what I remember taking from forecast this morning, possibly change at lunch and so on...

    Agree I heard it also, Gerry mentioned snow at least 3 times! Two potential waves of snow, overnight and Sunday morning, but from looking at charts it does seem confined to Connacht Ulster and north Midlands....


  • Registered Users Posts: 419 ✭✭ Tacklebox


    It'll be liable to dump anywhere id say, those wind chills will be quite cold.

    Anything that falls will more than likely be an icy mix.

    Hail sleet and snow id say


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,317 ✭✭✭ ZX7R


    Just after reading met earanns forecast and looks to be snow for much of Munster and Leinster tonight interesting


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭ Donegal Storm


    A dusting of snow in Letterkenny this morning, already mostly melted away from shaded areas


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  • Registered Users Posts: 475 ✭✭ bazlers


    ZX7R wrote: »
    Just after reading met earanns forecast and looks to be snow for much of Munster and Leinster tonight interesting

    Coinciding with night time hours will be helpful. Although until I see it it on the ground I won't get my hopes up : ) March of many weather's indeed.


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