Saturday/Sunday Wintry Potential

JanuarySnowstor

Lots of interest this weekend as some cold uppers move over us Saturday night into Sunday. Could be quite a bit of snow falling and possibly lying by the end of the weekend. After such a mild Winter nice to at least see a bit of late potential!

Meteorite58

Certainly looks wintry JanuarySnowstor. The charts are starting to show fair accumulations in the North of the Country . I think it was HighDef that pointed out it is a very similar set up as last Sunday but the snow falling more North. This time als the uppers are colder.

KingBobby

Do you think there could be disruptive road conditions for Sunday? Just wondering will a Sunday event in Kildare be impacted.

Thanks!

donal.hunt

KingBobby wrote: »

Do you think there could be disruptive road conditions for Sunday? Just wondering will a Sunday event in Kildare be impacted.

Thanks!

If it's similar to last weekend, yes it's likely roads conditions (and congestion) will be impacted. What do expect when everyone uses summer tyres all year round??

Like last weekend, it's going to be unpredictable where will and will not get impacted. Nowcasts are likely to be the best info.

Meteorite58

Wind gusts from the ARPEGE . Not a storm but quite windy on coasts. Warnings will be issued more than likely, probably yellow for wind , could get a yellow for snow and Ice also.






Quite windy also from the ECM and blustery across the country



ICON looking quite windy Sunday.




a different set up from the WRF - NMM but still showing snow accumulations , even in the SW

Meteorite58

HIRLAM HI RES just coming into range .

Models differing, looks like not as much moisture available this time so accumulations may be less but it looks colder so lying snow might last longer.






Accumulations by 07.00 . AROME did well last weekend

Meteorite58

Oscar Bravo had posted this already , will add it here also as important to this thread.

---

From met Eireann

A highly mobile Atlantic regime looks set to dominate our weather pattern through this weekend and the coming week. This will bring a sustained period of unsettled, often very windy and at times wintry weather with showers of hail, sleet and snow.

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/atlanti...ation-pressure

A very strong Jet Stream will help to push some vigorous and potentially disruptive Atlantic weather systems over Ireland during the period.

Strong and blustery winds look likely to feature from Saturday (9th March) through to at least Wednesday (13th) with frequent gales at sea. Sea conditions will be very rough and there will be exceptionally high seas and swell in Atlantic coastal regions at times.

There is certainly potential for warnings to be issued over the coming days, so please do stay up to date with the Met Éireann forecast.

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/national-forecast

https://www.met.ie/warnings

aisling86

Just spotted this ....

Gonzo

I could be wrong, but I don't think snow will be nearly as widespread as it was last Sunday. Most of the snow looks confined to the North-West and Northern Ireland. By tomorrow evening we should have a better guess at where the snow will fall and by how much.

Meteorite58

Looking at the temperatures a bit closer for Sunday and at the moment you would think they are too high for settling snow on lower ground in general during daylight hours. Looks quite cold Sunday morning so snow may be on the ground already in parts of the Northern half of the country, how long it will last ? Looks like a showery day Sunday giving wintry falls. Would expect that if it falls as snow then it would only settle on high ground during the day.

Still a bit to go models still not fully aligned even at this late stage.

Meteorite58

aisling86 wrote: »

Just spotted this ....

https://twitter.com/Onshoredk/status/1103694719085879297

https://twitter.com/thewindfreak/status/1104002867109810176

https://twitter.com/redbullIRE/status/1103656666422280192

Gonzo

Hirlam is going for mostly rain away from the north and high ground locations on Sunday.



GFS shows more snow potential and usually overdoes it



Icon is excluding the snow to Northern Ireland.



Arpege is a rain to snow event with most snow over the north.

Oscar Bravo

Status Yellow - Snow-ice warning for Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Longford, Louth, Meath, Leitrim, Roscommon and Sligo

Wintry showers overnight and early on Saturday will give a risk of snowfall accumulations of 1 to 5 cm.

Valid: Saturday 09 March 2019 01:00 to Saturday 09 March 2019 08:00
Issued: Friday 08 March 2019 22:00
Updated: Friday 08 March 2019 22:00

aisling86

Meteorite58 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Onshoredk/status/1103694719085879297

https://twitter.com/thewindfreak/status/1104002867109810176

https://twitter.com/redbullIRE/status/1103656666422280192

Swell map....

pauldry

I think if its too windy therel be no snow. The last snow we got in NW at end of January was because cold air was calm. This windy weather will bring snow to Northern Ireland but only slight amonts to Sligo.

Dont see many areas outside Ulster getting much.

Very short lived too once the sun gets to work on it Sunday

Still March seems to be our new Winter

AMKC

pauldry wrote: »

I think if its too windy therel be no snow. The last snow we got in NW at end of January was because cold air was calm. This windy weather will bring snow to Northern Ireland but only slight amonts to Sligo.

Dont see many areas outside Ulster getting much.

Very short lived too once the sun gets to work on it Sunday

Still March seems to be our new Winter

I hope your right. We got snow last weekend don't want anymore. The seasons are really fecked up do. Its supposed to be getting warmer now not colder.

sdanseo

Ah yes, Red Bull. That famous bastion of accurate weather analysis.

How have we not looked to them for the answers before now?

q85dw7osi4lebg

sdanseo wrote: »

Ah yes, Red Bull. That famous bastion of accurate weather analysis.

How have we not looked to them for the answers before now?

Well they do employ the use of professional meteorologists..

highdef

I'm with Meteorite58 and Gonzo, in that I currently don't foresee anything too wintry in terms of snow accumulations (or even falling snow), except in some northern areas, mostly high ground. The low would need to a smidgen further south than the current forecast track in order for more populated areas (cough cough...the Greater Dublin Area) to be in with a chance of some white gold.

I'll give judgement tomorrow evening as to what my thoughts are....if I'm online, that is.

Meteorite58

ARPEGE 18Z showing a fair dumping of snow from about 03.00 to about 11.00 Sun in the Northern half of the country , roughly if you draw a line across from Galway to Dublin and above that will be in the firing line , so thinking that it looks like there could be lying snow in that area Sun morning , how long will it last will depend on depth, height of ground and shelter and further wintry showers . Sun is getting strong but in all could see some lying snow much of the day in places that get maybe more than 5 cm and is a bit sheltered .An area with a good coating will in itself help to keep the temp down.

highdef

Meteorite58 wrote: »

ARPEGE 18Z showing a fair dumping of snow from about 03.00 to about 11.00 Sun in the Northern half of the country , roughly if you draw a line across from Galway to Dublin and above that will be in the firing line , so thinking that it looks like there could be lying snow in that area Sun morning , how long will it last will depend on depth, height of ground and shelter and further wintry showers . Sun is getting strong but in all could see some lying snow much of the day in places that get maybe more than 5 cm and is a bit sheltered .An area with a good coating will in itself help to keep the temp down.

The precipitation falling during the night time period does help but looking further into the ARPEGE model, DPs are generally a little above 0c (a few areas showing 0c), temperatures are almost all above 0c too. As it stands, I've a feeling that this event will be on the wrong side of marginal for nearly everyone.

Last weekends event showed a lot more potential when the event was less than 36 hours away with cross model agreement between three different models that a decent fall of snow was likely for a large part of Ireland. This time, there's just not enough support being shown.

Let's see what the various models show tomorrow.

Mullaghteelin

Sunday afternoon, into the early hours of Monday has a very potent upper cold pool crossing the northern half of the country. Surely coastal counties of the west and north will be in the firing line for nasty squally showers with a risk of thunder?
500hPa temperatures of -40C, usually means sit up and take notice!

I suspect some lucky places will see a significant dumping of snow by Monday morning, even if its all melted again by 11am.

Mount Vesuvius

Fairly potent sleet, snow event especially on higher ground showing up on the HiRes Arome Saturday night, Sunday morning for parts of the country. Some lower levels could do well too.

JanuarySnowstor

Met Eireann will very likely issue a snow warning at some stage this morning. Quite a dumping for favoured places in the North and West.
For the rebel county our best chance is Sunday after 3pm when a showery trough crosses the southwest.
Also Wednesday looking quite stormy probably deserves it's own thread

Mortelaro

Just to say,if people in large towns get a disruptive snowfall again this weekend, the met Éireann website wont be much good to them as of now anyway...
Pretty Bad!!

bazlers

Met eirean were quiet bullish for snow overnight on radio 1at 07.55. high ground, Midlands and Ulster most at risk from first band early night then late night/ early morning, Connacht again Ulster and north Midlands obviously high ground in those areas most at risk from disruption.

That's just what I remember taking from forecast this morning, possibly change at lunch and so on...

Wine Goddess

bazlers wrote: »

Met eirean were quiet bullish for snow overnight on radio 1at 07.55. high ground, Midlands and Ulster most at risk from first band early night then late night/ early morning, Connacht again Ulster and north Midlands obviously high ground in those areas most at risk from disruption.

That's just what I remember taking from forecast this morning, possibly change at lunch and so on...

Agree I heard it also, Gerry mentioned snow at least 3 times! Two potential waves of snow, overnight and Sunday morning, but from looking at charts it does seem confined to Connacht Ulster and north Midlands....

Tacklebox

It'll be liable to dump anywhere id say, those wind chills will be quite cold.

Anything that falls will more than likely be an icy mix.

Hail sleet and snow id say

ZX7R

Just after reading met earanns forecast and looks to be snow for much of Munster and Leinster tonight interesting

Donegal Storm

A dusting of snow in Letterkenny this morning, already mostly melted away from shaded areas

bazlers

ZX7R wrote: »

Just after reading met earanns forecast and looks to be snow for much of Munster and Leinster tonight interesting

Coinciding with night time hours will be helpful. Although until I see it it on the ground I won't get my hopes up : ) March of many weather's indeed.

munsterlegend

ZX7R wrote: »

Just after reading met earanns forecast and looks to be snow for much of Munster and Leinster tonight interesting

Surprised at that myself. Expected it to be north Leinster/ Ulster snowfall event. Will be surprised to see anything lying in Cork except for hills.

ZX7R

munsterlegend wrote: »

Surprised at that myself. Expected it to be north Leinster/ Ulster snowfall event. Will be surprised to see anything lying in Cork except for hills.

I keep people updated tonight i do security at the weekends for a bit of extra income,helps with therapy's for my son.
So I be up all night .

Maybe the system is tracking further south than expected

Mount Vesuvius

Yes, Met Èireann say rain will turn to sleet and snow over much of munster and leinster. However nothing about accumulations here and altitude thus it's a very catch all forecast at the moment till further information comes to hand.

Meteorite58

ZX7R wrote: »

I keep people updated tonight i do security at the weekends for a bit of extra income,helps with therapy's for my son.
So I be up all night .

Maybe the system is tracking further south than expected

Look forward to the reports ZX7R !

Mount Vesuvius

Met Èireann updated

TONIGHT - SATURDAY 9TH MARCH

Rain, with some heavy bursts, will spread up over much of the country this evening and early tonight, turning wintry with some falls of sleet and snow. The rain, sleet and snow will turn more showery overnight, but still occasionally heavy and prolonged over the northern half of the country. The risk of hail and thunder will also increase towards morning. Lows of minus 1 to plus 2 degrees. Light variable winds, becoming fresh to strong westerly, with gales developing on Atlantic coasts towards dawn.


Again nothing much of note yet.

JanuarySnowstor

06z gfs haa upgraded Tuesday nights storm quite a bit. Doesn't look far from a red if these upgrades were to continue
Re this weekend it's reduced the potential for snow in the south tonight but all looks good for tomorrow

Mortelaro

Wine Goddess wrote: »

Agree I heard it also, Gerry mentioned snow at least 3 times! Two potential waves of snow, overnight and Sunday morning, but from looking at charts it does seem confined to Connacht Ulster and north Midlands....

Yeah but this is 2019
People with phones aren't going to be listening to radio one
They're going to be looking at what I posted above and set out on their journeys accordingly
Which leads to the Same confusion as last weekend

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

06z gfs haa upgraded Tuesday nights storm quite a bit. Doesn't look far from a red if these upgrades were to continue
Re this weekend it's reduced the potential for snow in the south tonight but all looks good for tomorrow

Is that up north or countrywide re Tuesday?

Sofa Spud

Anyone get woken up this morning around 3.45am by the loudest thunder I'ver ever heard? Live just outside Galway, sounded like the city was under bombardment, guess it was a colder air mass moving in, after a few very loud claps, torrential rain for about 20 mins with more thunder - had the heart going 90 for a while.

Oops69

highdef wrote: »

I'm with Meteorite58 and Gonzo, in that I currently don't foresee anything too wintry in terms of snow accumulations (or even falling snow), except in some northern areas, mostly high ground. The low would need to a smidgen further south than the current forecast track in order for more populated areas (cough cough...the Greater Dublin Area) to be in with a chance of some white gold.

I'll give judgement tomorrow evening as to what my thoughts are....if I'm online, that is.

you don't work in hedge funds by any chance ?

highdef

LOL, no. How on earth did you come up with conclusion?

squarecircles

the impending storm early next week is of more concern to me,alot of people might be surprised given the distraction associated with the white gold.

Oops69

highdef wrote: »

LOL, no. How on earth did you come up with conclusion?

so will you be conveniently 'off line ' if your prediction goes pear- shaped ?, lol.

JanuarySnowstor

@ munsterlegend mainly further North for storm.
And we have our snow ice warning!!

adocholiday

Ah crap I was supposed to be going to Kilkenny tonight think I'll stay put

Mount Vesuvius

Rain, sleet snow mix from latest Arome . Definitely could be a good covering for some with this.

JanuarySnowstor

Just to clarify for newbies a snow warning for Ireland in March means we have a good chance of seeing snow falling. It doesn't mean you should cancel indoor activities, maybe in mid winter but March snow is just fun non disruptive (in general I know sometimes in severe cases it can)

Oscar Bravo

Status Yellow - Snow-ice warning for Ireland

Scattered thundery showers of hail, sleet and snow expected during the period. Poor visibility, with slippery and icy conditions will occur at times.

Valid: Saturday 09 March 2019 23:00 to Monday 11 March 2019 06:00

Issued: Saturday 09 March 2019 10:00

Updated: Saturday 09 March 2019 10:00

redsteveireland

Sofa Spud wrote: »

Anyone get woken up this morning around 3.45am by the loudest thunder I'ver ever heard? Live just outside Galway, sounded like the city was under bombardment, guess it was a colder air mass moving in, after a few very loud claps, torrential rain for about 20 mins with more thunder - had the heart going 90 for a while.

Yep, same here.

Have you seen the Convective weather thread?

highdef

Oops69 wrote: »

so will you be conveniently 'off line ' if your prediction goes pear- shaped ?, lol.

Hahaha, I see what you mean. No, more a case of it's Saturday and I more often than not am no online much, if at all.

As for the various computer models this morning, Unless there are upgrades in the models by this evening, then I'm still not convinced of anything noteworthy for the vast majority of the population tonight. Fingers crossed that I'm wrong!

Regarding the possible wind event in a few days time, I'll keep any chat about it to that thread if/when the thread is created.