Lay of the Festival

Gringo180

Should of put it with the NAPs thread, but whos your lay of the festival.

Place lay would be Faugheen. 7/2 what are they smoking I wouldnt back him at treble those odds.

RivetingRoger

Gringo180 wrote: »

Should of put it with the NAPs thread, but whos your lay of the festival.

Place lay would be Faugheen. 7/2 what are they smoking I wouldnt back him at treble those odds.

Funnily enough, I would say Paisley Park is the lay of the festival ......

Gringo180

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Funnily enough, I would say Paisley Park is the lay of the festival ......

I dont know. Hes hard to gauge really. It wouldnt surprise me if he was well beaten and it wouldnt surprise me if he won by a street. Some improvement i him this season, but its a weak bunch of stayers across the pond, although you still have to hold your hands up and say hes been inpressive.

RivetingRoger

Gringo180 wrote: »

I dont know. Hes hard to gauge really. It wouldnt surprise me if he was well beaten and it wouldnt surprise me if he won by a street. Some improvement i him this season, but its a weak bunch of stayers across the pond, although you still have to hold your hands up and say hes been inpressive.

None of the field have the form to match what Faugheen did in the Irish Stayers last May...None
He ran Penhill into the ground
I got on him at 10/1 a while back for this race, his 7/2 now is making my 10/1 look very good!!

Gringo180

RivetingRoger wrote: »

None of the field have the form to match what Faugheen did in the Irish Stayers last May...None
He ran Penhill into the ground
I got on him at 10/1 a while back for this race, his 7/2 now is making my 10/1 look very good!!

Penhill was hardly at his best. You can just tell that by the proximity of that hound Shaneshill to him. Faugheens 11. Very hard to win a handicap at that age let alone a championship race.

RivetingRoger

Gringo180 wrote: »

Penhill was hardly at his best. You can just tell that by the proximity of that hound Shaneshill to him. Faugheens 11. Very hard to win a handicap at that age let alone a championship race.

It was Penhill's first race since winning the SH, he had plenty time inbetween so why wouldnt he have been at his best?
Maybe, just maybe Faugheen is better

Slattsy

Glen Forsa

RivetingRoger

For the record, as much as i WANT faugheen to win, and I will be roaring him on, I have Paisley backed in my biggest acca along with AJ/Altior/Sir Erec, so I wont be devastated if he does win !

Gringo180

RivetingRoger wrote: »

For the record, as much as i WANT faugheen to win, and I will be roaring him on, I have Paisley backed in my biggest acca along with AJ/Altior/Sir Erec, so I wont be devastated if he does win !

I done the muggiest of mugs accum earlier on, im actually embarrassed by it :pac:

RivetingRoger

Gringo180 wrote: »

I done the muggiest of mugs accum earlier on, im actually embarrassed by it :pac:

If you're not in...............

paddy no 11

Think the forum needs a faugheen v pp pole just to see was right afterwards save a lot of wasted typing

For me da machine is a lay

Francie Barrett

Apple's Jade.

HarshOstrich

Apples jade
Paisley park

zpehtsfd

Buveur Dair

Take that Faugheen win @ Punchestown with a mound of salt. imo

Motivator

Faugheen is the lay of the year. He won’t have it in his legs to beat these lads over 3 miles. Anyone who thinks he can win is betting with their heart not their head.

He’s also coming in to this race off an absolute banging fall at Christmas, I actually think it was Ruby that said as they get older horses remember falls and it takes them longer to get over them. another reason not to go anywhere near him.

Andrew00

Townend done everything he could to let Faugheen win the Irish stayers.

Look how wide he took Penhill around the home turn ffs, not to mention the 5L advantage Faugheen got at the start

Scott Tenorman

Andrew00 wrote: »

Townend done everything he could to let Faugheen win the Irish stayers.

Look how wide he took Penhill around the home turn ffs, not to mention the 5L advantage Faugheen got at the start

Apples Jade. She is stones better at other tracks

Scott Tenorman

Andrew00 wrote: »

Townend done everything he could to let Faugheen win the Irish stayers.

Look how wide he took Penhill around the home turn ffs, not to mention the 5L advantage Faugheen got at the start

I agree. That race was “strange” to say the least

NaiveMelodies

Andrew00 wrote: »

Townend done everything he could to let Faugheen win the Irish stayers.

Look how wide he took Penhill around the home turn ffs, not to mention the 5L advantage Faugheen got at the start

Pure rubbish! Penhill didn't want to know when push came to shove at Punchestown. Sure what was he thinking havin Penhill so wide at Chelts for 3 miles!

On topic..I would completely agree that Faugheen is way too short btw.

EICVD

Clan Des Obeaux

Francie Barrett

Motivator wrote: »

Faugheen is the lay of the year. He won’t have it in his legs to beat these lads over 3 miles. Anyone who thinks he can win is betting with their heart not their head.

He’s also coming in to this race off an absolute banging fall at Christmas, I actually think it was Ruby that said as they get older horses remember falls and it takes them longer to get over them. another reason not to go anywhere near him.

Faugheen is 11, the record for horses winning this race at that age is simply shocking.

IAMAMORON

I think you can pick any of the top three in the Champion Hurdle market and lay away. Only one of them can win the race, if one of them does win it. I cannot wait for the race myself, getting real excited now.

mirwillbeback

Gringo180 wrote: »

Should of put it with the NAPs thread, but whos your lay of the festival.

There’s a gamey oul wan outside the Horse and Cart pub most Wednesday’s 😂

posturingpat

Ill throw a Lot of peoples nap in the ring here.
Sir erec.
Looks like he has a huge chance,won from a highly touted Mullins Horse in Tiger tap tap in a maiden hurdle, he then went and won his grade 1 beating TTT by even further. Travelled,jumped and quickened nicely and ran through the line and looks an exciting juvenile.
Now for the but.....
He just about beat Tiger tap tap in his Maiden hurdle when Mullins horses werent right, he then got an easy lead at Leopardstown and learnt absolutely nothing, he arrives with a reputation as a superstar flat horse having finished 3rd to Stradivarius but People conveniently forget He was also a length behind Thomas Hobson receiving 8lb, not dreadful form but not the star form the hype would have you believe.
There have been enough flat bred horses puke at the site of that hill for me to be weary at the price and just last year another Mc Manus cert who appeared to have a Lot less to prove in Apples Shakira was badly stuffed.
Joey o briens own stable have a few decent ones that havent had the gun put to their head just yet and Plenty unexposed here so i think in and around evens He is a crazy price and will lay accordingly.

Gautama

Would have been Le Richbourg but as he’s out then Clan Des Obeaux is my lay of the festival.
Will wait ‘til Friday, he’ll go off a short priced fav.

His best form is on flat, right-handed tracks.
He has zero wins from four runs in Cheltenham.

There’s something of a Silviniaco Conti about him.

Angliru

Anyone willing to take on Altior? Seems to be very little chat about the QMCC in general and it does seem as if people think it is a formality. The only chat appears to be whether if Min will come back for another crack at him. I adore Altior and I've not a cent on the race yet, and won't be backing Altior anyway but I hope to God he wins but I feel like if he might lose it might be here. I just have no clue what could beat him. Min is a beaut and his last two runs were very impressive whereas last time out Altior was jumping to his left.... Altior has done very little wrong though and his runs have been nothing short of jaw dropping too. Footpad goes to the Ryanair and even so he'd need a massive reverse in form to beat Altior even down a few gears. I quite like Sceau Royal but not at that price. And God forbid Simply Ned going close here.

I think I'll probably end up backing something like Saint Calvados or Diego du Charmil if he's sent at massive odds and just sit back and hope the P4P best horse cements himself as one of the greatest horses ever.

Motivator

Angliru wrote: »

Anyone willing to take on Altior? Seems to be very little chat about the QMCC in general and it does seem as if people think it is a formality. The only chat appears to be whether if Min will come back for another crack at him. I adore Altior and I've not a cent on the race yet, and won't be backing Altior anyway but I hope to God he wins but I feel like if he might lose it might be here. I just have no clue what could beat him. Min is a beaut and his last two runs were very impressive whereas last time out Altior was jumping to his left.... Altior has done very little wrong though and his runs have been nothing short of jaw dropping too. Footpad goes to the Ryanair and even so he'd need a massive reverse in form to beat Altior even down a few gears. I quite like Sceau Royal but not at that price. And God forbid Simply Ned going close here.

I think I'll probably end up backing something like Saint Calvados or Diego du Charmil if he's sent at massive odds and just sit back and hope the P4P best horse cements himself as one of the greatest horses ever.

I never understand people who try and find an angle in races such as this year’s Queen Mother - I’m not having a pop at you by the way. There’s 28 races over the four days, you don’t need to have a bet in every race. This is a race to just sit back and enjoy watching Altior in full flow. There aren’t many superstars around these days but he’s the best of the best at the moment and I can’t wait for Wednesday just to see him in action again. I know some will say that they need to have a bet just for an interest or whatever but Christ if watching an unbeaten 2 mile chaser do his thing isn’t interesting enough then I just don’t know.

longshotvalue

It's possible Min w/o altior is the best shortie of the festival at evens . Seems a near certainty to me .

BumperD

I don’t lay so these are just ones I’d be swerving that are near top of market

Lalor, I’m skeptical on his form this season, not last season, even with what looks like a terrible year quality wise

Champ, liked him few months ago but some of the form lines are falling apart last month or so

Footpad Ryanair- that’s one of the races of the festival and with his prep this season you’d want blind confidence having him fav

Watch all 3 win on the bridle

Charlie George

Simply because the value is gone i'd lay tiger roll.

Always Tired

Benie Des Deaux

Ruby said it's his best ride of the festival. That's enough for me to stay away.

Outlaw Pete

Sir Erec.

Shemale

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I think you can pick any of the top three in the Champion Hurdle market and lay away. Only one of them can win the race, if one of them does win it. I cannot wait for the race myself, getting real excited now.

Using this logic you could lay the entire field, seeing as only one of them can win it

The Mig

Silvinaco Des Obeaux

prettyboy81

Presenting Percy place lay. No competitive chase run heading into Gold Cup. Plenty of proven stayers in the race and guaranteed a scorching stamina test from Native River will see PP wilt when push comes to shove coming around the home turn faced with two to jump and the hill finish.

Its a game of opinions though!

gazza1

Clan Des Obeaux

Gautama

Angliru wrote: »

Anyone willing to take on Altior?

I've backed Gods Own each way at 50/1. Had a nice payout on him last year at 40/1 when he came home third.
I'm considering an each way bet on Fox Norton too.

Do I think either of them will beat Altior? Not really. But Masterminded was going for a third QMCC on the bounce at 4/5 when I'd an each way bet on Big Zeb at 11/1.

IAMAMORON

Charlie George wrote: »

Simply because the value is gone i'd lay tiger roll.

Your bang on. Even money around the cross country track is a dreadful bet. Anything can happen there, run out, take the wrong course, slip up , wow maybe even fall over a fence ????

That is a smashing lay, always was. Only Josies Orders has won the race as favourite since 2007. It is a terrible race for favourites.

PhuckHugh2

Surprised the amount of people actually laying horses. Are people really laying 4-5/1 shots like Presenting Percy and Clan Des Obeaux? Or are they just horses you are opposing?

The horse who i think is the wrong price but i wont be laying as it is not really something i am interested in is Laurina. She should be at least 6 or 7/1 and is bordering on half that.

Gautama

Motivator wrote: »

I never understand people who try and find an angle in races such as this year’s Queen Mother

It's about value, on two fronts:

Laying: He's 2/5 in most places. If I Lay him for €100 at 1.4 and he loses, I'll profit by €250. That's not bad, with 8 (maybe) horses running in my favour. What's that Gerry Adams said that time, "you have to be lucky every time, we only have to be lucky once". Altior has to beat them all, only one of the other has to beat Altior for me to profit.

Each-way: Because Altior is available at such paltry odds, the other horses are at inflated odds. There is each way value to be had.
Take Ladbrokes NRNB antepost prices, putting €100 win on Altior versus €50 each way on each of the next four in the market.
Altior 2/5. Win gives a profit of €40
Min 5/1. A place has you break even.
Footpad 6/1. A place has you profit by €10
UDS 11/1. A place has you profit by €60
SR 14/1. A place has you profit by €90

As someone who never goes each way below 8/1, of those five I'd be going with UDS or SR. Notwithstanding the fact that it's unlikely that all of these five will run.

Yes, there are 27 other races, but is there value in them? Plus, the QMCC is a "championship race", there are only 3 other feature races at the festival.

Since my first Cheltenham in 2009 I've witnessed four odds on favourites lose this race: Masterminded 2010, Sizing Europe 2012, UDS 2016 and Douvan in 2017. This race can be a graveyard for odds-on favourites. And the silence in the stands and the betting ring was deafening every time except 2016.

I haven't roared home my third placed Gods Own 40/1 or second placed Somersby 33/1, but there's value to be had.

There are plenty of reasons to find an angle in this race.

Gautama

Shemale wrote: »

Using this logic you could lay the entire field, seeing as only one of them can win it

That would be a suicidal tactic.
At present, Altior is 1.48. That's a lay price.
Min is 10.0 and Footpad 21.0. Neither lay prices on their own but as part of a three way lay, doable.
But laying SR at 34.0, UDS at 60.0, etc. Madness!

Gautama

PhuckHugh2 wrote: »

Are people really laying 4-5/1 shots like Presenting Percy and Clan Des Obeaux?

Not yet but I will be laying CDO when he shortens up on the day.

The real mccoy 91

IAMAMORON wrote: »

That is a smashing lay, always was. Only Josies Orders has won the race as favourite since 2007. It is a terrible race for favourites.

Jesus that's a mad stat didn't realise it was that bad

longshotvalue

Gautama wrote: »

I've backed Gods Own each way at 50/1. Had a nice payout on him last year at 40/1 when he came home third.
I'm considering an each way bet on Fox Norton too.

Do I think either of them will beat Altior? Not really. But Masterminded was going for a third QMCC on the bounce at 4/5 when I'd an each way bet on Big Zeb at 11/1.

Fox norton goes for Ryanair (i hope). Think he wins that.

Slattsy

aidankkk wrote: »

Fox norton goes for Ryanair (i hope). Think he wins that.

Rules out this am.

longshotvalue

Slattsy wrote: »

Rules out this am.

Feck (one the one had i thought he'd win ) ( on the other i haven't backed him yet and Have backed Coney Island EW at 33/1)

lemush

Ok Corral without doubt.

Gautama

aidankkk wrote: »

Fox norton goes for Ryanair (i hope). Think he wins that.

Thanks

BumperD

Lads fox norton was ruled out of festival this morning

yaboya1

Apples Jade

Shemale

Gautama wrote: »

That would be a suicidal tactic.
At present, Altior is 1.48. That's a lay price.
Min is 10.0 and Footpad 21.0. Neither lay prices on their own but as part of a three way lay, doable.
But laying SR at 34.0, UDS at 60.0, etc. Madness!

I was being smart.

Personally if I thought Altior was beatable I would split my stake using the probability of the next 3 / 4 in the market, back them to win so if one of them does you get the same amount back.