Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

RivetingRoger

Can't be having Al Dancer at the price. If Joseph sends Fekir here he has to be respected but for me, the horse with form in the book, wins in the bag and will suit the race is Da Nutz.
Can see himself and Itchy feet jumping the last together and I would back da Nutz to outstay any of them up the hill.

Elixir Da Nutz for me @ 8/1

jimjamcos

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Can't be having Al Dancer at the price. If Joseph sends Fekir here he has to be respected but for me, the horse with form in the book, wins in the bag and will suit the race is Da Nutz.
Can see himself and Itchy feet jumping the last together and I would back da Nutz to outstay any of them up the hill.

Elixir Da Nutz for me @ 8/1

Wouldn't be negative on Al Dancer as think a championship pace race is exactly what he needs and will get - can see him cruising into it but too short now given possibility of him getting outstayed.

Agree with you that Elixir is definitely the value and will be a stonking ew bet with extra places on day.

Wouldn't give up on Angels Breath ew either as thought he jumped lovely the other day on a track too sharp, without being given too hard a ride. Cheltenham will suit much better.

Couldn't have Joseph's juvenille at all - form hasn't stacked up with Fast Buck walloped at Naas yesterday.

madmoose

Not saying he will win but Thomas Darby at 20/1 still is a fair ew price as the race should suit with the pace and a few months ago at the track he beat Elix easily when running green and seem to relish the hill.

RivetingRoger

madmoose wrote: »

Not saying he will win but Thomas Darby at 20/1 still is a fair ew price as the race should suit with the pace and a few months ago at the track he beat Elix easily when running green and seem to relish the hill.

Da Nutz has come on loads since Moose. We have no idea re Thomas Darby. Could be anything

Panrich

Anyone like Mister Fisher in this? He seems to tick quite a few boxes.

madmoose

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Da Nutz has come on loads since Moose. We have no idea re Thomas Darby. Could be anything

He has and showed the form, looking forward to Darby at the course again and at the odds the ew isn’t bad in an open race.

lemush

Thomas Darby will go off half the price he is now.

IAMAMORON

madmoose wrote: »

Not saying he will win but Thomas Darby at 20/1 still is a fair ew price as the race should suit with the pace and a few months ago at the track he beat Elix easily when running green and seem to relish the hill.

Cracking shout, I like it. This race is always won by an improver. Form ties in with Mister Fisher as well who is definitely getting a fiver on the nose at around 12 -1 , huge price at the moment.


https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/supreme-novice-hurdle/winner

HarshOstrich

Tough race, starting to side with elixir du nutz but think mister fisher is nailed on to place, he is the future star if there is one.

Slattsy

Aramon for me. The English seem to think they have the upper hand here but I'm not so sure. Aramon ticks an awful lot of boxes and should have won two grade ones, only for hanging lto. He won't do that again.

12s is massive, decent each way.

EICVD

EDN for me, doesn’t look the greatest Supreme but he won well at the course twice & added a grade 1 he’s good value. In saying that if Fakir runs I’ll probably have a bigger bet on him

Gringo180

Angels Breath was around 11/2 yesterday now only 4s. I can imagine thats because Fakir Doudairies maybe runs in the Triumph now with Sir Erecs injury

Father Hernandez

I like the look of Grand Sancy at 8s

Will be putting the €20 'free' bet on with SkyBet

Cash back if your horse doesn't win for those who didn't know

PhuckHugh2

Gringo180 wrote: »

Angels Breath was around 11/2 yesterday now only 4s. I can imagine thats because Fakir Doudairies maybe runs in the Triumph now with Sir Erecs injury

Id imagine the support is after Nico chose him over Mister Fisher. In fairness his run the last day is up there with any of these. His price is spot on.
Has there been a further update on Sir Erec? He only had a stone bruise i thought?

RivetingRoger

Sir Erec only has a stone bruise
Zero worries

pugw

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Sir Erec only has a stone bruise
Zero worries

Sir stil erec still very tight on the machine. Fakir is 7s for supreme and 10s for the triumph

RivetingRoger

pugw wrote: »

Sir stil erec still very tight on the machine. Fakir is 7s for supreme and 10s for the triumph

That's most likely down to him being so short tho

pugw

RivetingRoger wrote: »

That's most likely down to him being so short tho

If you were planning on lumping on fakir should you hold off until Sunday ?

RivetingRoger

I know I keep saying this, but, the more you look at it, Elixr is the winner hiding in plain sight!

Course winner
Distance Winner
Grade 1 Winner
Will go on good or good/soft which is likely on the day
If anything gets alongside him he toughs it out

Only way I can see him beat is if something gets 6/7 lengths on him and stays on

He has to be the value in the race @ 7/1 surely????

Charlie George

pugw wrote: »

If you were planning on lumping on fakir should you hold off until Sunday ?

Hold on till Tuesday, there will be lots of special offers for the first day from the bookies.

piplip87

Going two handed here. Exilier Des Nutz and I think Elliott's Vision D'Honiur has solid place claims so had a nice Ew punt here.

Motivator

I already mentioned it on the other thread but I think Thomas Darby is a great bet at a big price. Olly Murphy thinks he’s a proper Grade 1 horse once he gets a strong gallop ahead of him. He has plenty of pace, he stays and most importantly he acts on the track. Dickie Johnson rides him and he’s a smashing bet at 20s in a wide open race.

Slattsy

Kinda looking at Itchy Feet here. His form lines tie in nicely with some of those near the top of the market.

Angliru

On Thomas Darby and Itchy Feet and Aramon too from earlier in the year. Confident.

Gavin "shels"

Elixir Da Nut for me, maybe an ew on Itchy Feet too.

dave81

I think Rouge Vif is massively overpriced. Huge turnaround in the weights with Mr Fisher since they last met and slammed a decent field recently, so very progressive. I'll definitely put a decent win single on him. Fancy him.

Da nutz cannot but place, form stacks up every way. Might find an improver too good is the suspicion. An ew certainly imo.

Aramon, definitely be there abouts.

Good luck

madmoose

Looks like Klassical Dream runs here with the rain hammering it down and i can’t see Ruby getting off him.

Slattsy

madmoose wrote: »

Looks like Klassical Dream runs here with the rain hammering it down and i can’t see Ruby getting off him.

Yeah makes sense. I really fancied Aramon when I thought the ground would be on the good side.

Tricky race. Very open. Angels Breath being backed like defeat is out of the question.

Klassical Dream is coming here

NaiveMelodies

TheTorment wrote: »

Klassical Dream is coming here

Absolutely delighted.. and relieved. Great chance, can't wait.

Angliru

Hills going 7 places here lads

paddy no 11

What a race this is. Will need those 7 places with hills given the amount of horses that allegedly can't be out of the places!!!

Al dancer hasn't even got a mention yet, his betfair run just reminded me of labaik deserved favourite

Shemale

Angliru wrote: »

Hills going 7 places here lads

1/5 the odds

HarshOstrich

I’m coming around to vision d’honneur in this race, I think he struggled with the fast ground at Leopardstown last time, he will be much more comfortable with this stamina test, should run well.

madmoose

Shemale wrote: »

1/5 the odds

You couldnt of expected 1/4 for 7 surely??

PhuckHugh2

madmoose wrote: »

You couldnt of expected 1/4 for 7 surely??

It is not a handicap anyway so the correct place terms that books on course will be playing is 1/5 first 3. 1/5 first 7 is ridiculous really. Savage value.

RivetingRoger

Da nutz drifting because of the rain forecast I would imagine
Won't abandon him now regardless

TheMilkyPirate

Al dancer. Just seems the most likely winner to me. I've heard Betfair hurdle winners have a bad record in this then I checked it, Three 2nds in the supreme after winning the Betfair last 6 years. Hardly a bad record.

boomtown84

Itchy Feet drifting...44 on exchange

Slattsy

boomtown84 wrote: »

Itchy Feet drifting...44 on exchange

Gonna hate the ground.

Trio123

Aramon for me at 16s, there isn't much between him and klassical dream who's gone into 4s in places! and soft ground shouldn't be a problem.

Gringo180

Trio123 wrote: »

Aramon for me at 16s, there isn't much between him and klassical dream who's gone into 4s in places! and soft ground shouldn't be a problem.

Elliots horse wasnt beaten far by them either and he will relish a bit of cut in the ground.

RivetingRoger

Da Nutz friendless

I retain the faith

IAMAMORON

I think Grand Sancy giving 2lbs and a beating to Sceau Royal and Vision de Flos ( same weight ) last time out cannot be ignored. It has gone 16's in places.

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2019-03-12-cheltenham/13:30/winner

FatRat

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I think Grand Sancy giving 2lbs and a beating to Sceau Royal and Vision de Flos ( same weight ) last time out cannot be ignored. It has gone 16's in places.

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2019-03-12-cheltenham/13:30/winner

Have backed him just now. The value in this race is insane. I have 3 horses in it now - 1 to be refunded by Skybet if it loses. 1 to give me a free 25 bet on another race with 365 and 1 with 7 places paid.

In other words my first 3 losses of the festival won't feel as bad

Trio123

Gringo180 wrote: »

Elliots horse wasnt beaten far by them either and he will relish a bit of cut in the ground.

He's being backed alright! Did Elliott say he prefers soft?

Gringo180

Trio123 wrote: »

He's being backed alright! Did Elliott say he prefers soft?

He won impressively in France on debut on ground described as very soft, which over here is a complete mud bath.

Elixir de nutz is out. Lame

Slattsy

Trio123 wrote: »

Aramon for me at 16s, there isn't much between him and klassical dream who's gone into 4s in places! and soft ground shouldn't be a problem.

He was my fancy all along but really think the ground gone for him. But if he keeps drifting like this he could be a worth a few bob.

Angliru

The Big Bite coming in is pleasing.

KingJamsie

TheTorment wrote: »

Elixir de nutz is out. Lame

Hope Roger is sitting down when he reads this