Arkle Chase 2019

Slattsy

Ffs I'll start one myself then. Lazy fúckers.

News broke this morning that Le Richebourge, a general 5/2 market leader for this years Arkle, would miss the race, and the rest of season due to injury. I was of the strong belief that Le Richebourge was nigh on unbeatable, and with him now out, it looks like the worst Arkle in living memory.

From a betting perspective, we've:
Lalor 3/1, Glen Forsa 5/1, Defi Du Seuil 5/1, Duc Des Genievres 8/1, Paloma Blue 12/1, Kalishnikov 12/1, Ornua 14/1, 16s bar.

Now if that's not a bad Arkle line up I don't know what is!!

I backed Paloma Blue at 25/1 during the off season, as I liked his Supreme run last year. He's currently a best price 12/1. That race now doesn't look too good form wise, but at the time he looked a right chaser in the making to me, and he's with the right man to improve him big time over fences. His debut was disappointing but I was happy enough with him lto, in a decent race. All in all, I'm happy with the price I have and with Le Richebourge running, I would have been happy with a place. But now.... im hoping he can do more than just place. The Arkle is wide open.

Defil will almost definitely be re-reouted here from the JLT. Who wants to have a JLT winner ffs. And he has his chance.

For the life of me I cant have Lalor. He should be 10/1. Same can be said for Glen Forsa. They've no chance in my opinion.

Us and Them could be a decent each way poke, his form ties in well with some. Couldn't put anyone off Hardline either.

I'm knackered after writing this.

PhuckHugh2

Slattsy wrote: »

it looks like the worst Arkle in living memory.

From a betting perspective, we've:
Lalor 3/1, Glen Forsa 5/1, Defi Du Seuil 5/1, Duc Des Genievres 8/1, Paloma Blue 12/1, Kalishnikov 12/1, Ornua 14/1, 16s bar.

Now if that's not a bad Arkle line up I don't know what is!!

I would say the Arkles of 2013 and 2014 were considerably worse. Western Warhorse won the 2014 edition. And if you take Simonsig out of 2013 the race was an absolute disgrace. I would say not 1 horse of the 2013 field bar simonsig would beat any of the ones above.
While id agree that it is a substandard edition. The Arkle doesnt really tend to be a great race most years since the addition of the JLT. Bar 2/3 horses it is relatively poor most years.

Massimo Tara

I expect Ornua to run a big race depending on the ground. Loves good ground and would expect him to be competing for a place at the very least

Slattsy

Yeah the 2014 Arkle looks pretty bad tbf!

Stacksey

Backed Hardline for this at 25's, using Us and them as the guide, Hardline beat him by 10 lenghts over 2m1f at Navan and Le Richebourg has beaten Us and Them twice by 4 lenghts and 7 lenghts, Elliott has said he will more than likely run in this and will have either Russell or Kennedy on his back

The Mig

Tailor made for Defi Du Seuil this race

Plasandrunt

he's been written off but Kalashnkov will be a different proposition on a left handed course

jimjamcos

Wouldn't be slating the race at all as, given how open it is, a star could easily emerge from it. Plenty of novices have run stinkers (Vautour a prime example) before going on to star in a novice chase at festival.

As a result I'm a Lalor fan - thought his Cheltenham run earlier in season was super, he never looked comfortable at Sandown, and he's sure to relish the Arkle test.

FWIW I couldn't have had Le Richebourg at the prices given he had it all to prove over course and likely softer ground (will surely overly water on 1st day) and had been beating same horses including stablemate Us And Them in Ireland.

Hardline hammered the same horse in December much more convincingly and he's the horse I like EW for both Arkle and JLT, NRNB of course. 12/1 and 16/1 respectively screams value to me!

Hopefully it's Lalor winning the Arkle and Hardline JLT

Plasandrunt

pretty sure Vatour was unbeaten going into his Supreme win

PhuckHugh2

Plasandrunt wrote: »

pretty sure Vatour was unbeaten going into his Supreme win

He was hammered by Clarcam at Leopardstown at Christmas in the RP chase before going on to win the JLT. Which i assume he is referring to as he was talking about chasers.

If you want to be pedantic he wasn't unbeaten over hurdles before the supreme anyway.

akelly02

Massimo Tara wrote: »

I expect Ornua to run a big race depending on the ground. Loves good ground and would expect him to be competing for a place at the very least

will be taken on upfront by knocknauss , thats a cert

which will mean strong pace, which will suit defi down to the ground

HarshOstrich

Slattsy wrote: »

Ffs I'll start one myself then. Lazy fúckers.

News broke this morning that Le Richebourge, a general 5/2 market leader for this years Arkle, would miss the race, and the rest of season due to injury. I was of the strong belief that Le Richebourge was nigh on unbeatable, and with him now out, it looks like the worst Arkle in living memory.

From a betting perspective, we've:
Lalor 3/1, Glen Forsa 5/1, Defi Du Seuil 5/1, Duc Des Genievres 8/1, Paloma Blue 12/1, Kalishnikov 12/1, Ornua 14/1, 16s bar.

Now if that's not a bad Arkle line up I don't know what is!!

I backed Paloma Blue at 25/1 during the off season, as I liked his Supreme run last year. He's currently a best price 12/1. That race now doesn't look too good form wise, but at the time he looked a right chaser in the making to me, and he's with the right man to improve him big time over fences. His debut was disappointing but I was happy enough with him lto, in a decent race. All in all, I'm happy with the price I have and with Le Richebourge running, I would have been happy with a place. But now.... im hoping he can do more than just place. The Arkle is wide open.

Defil will almost definitely be re-reouted here from the JLT. Who wants to have a JLT winner ffs. And he has his chance.

For the life of me I cant have Lalor. He should be 10/1. Same can be said for Glen Forsa. They've no chance in my opinion.

Us and Them could be a decent each way poke, his form ties in well with some. Couldn't put anyone off Hardline either.

I'm knackered after writing this.

I’ve the opposite opinion
Glen forsa,lalor and defi, the winner will come from these.
Paloma blue, us and them, hardline have no chance of making the places.
Kalashnikov as well actually, he’s not a fluent jumper.
The market is spot on really.

famagusta

I'm on Articulum at 25/1, doing a rain dance now!

BumperD

Only ones I don’t like are those coming from last years supreme, that and the 2018 bumper look poor renewals. Defi was all wrong last year so he looks a player on a course he likes but the flat pedigree is troubling if no nh bred can beat him. He also jumps a fence in a shape like a flat bed truck

EICVD

I couldn’t see Le Richebourg beat in this. Probably going to go with Paloma Blue now, wouldn’t be confident but had I’m at Christmas & the DRF. That lack of a run after his awful round of jumping when he won is a negative in my eyes.

akelly02

PhuckHugh2 wrote: »

He was hammered by Clarcam at Leopardstown at Christmas in the RP chase before going on to win the JLT. Which i assume he is referring to as he was talking about chasers.

If you want to be pedantic he wasn't unbeaten over hurdles before the supreme anyway.

he was hammered by clarcam because he was stopped to a halt with townend aboard about 4 out

RivetingRoger

akelly02 wrote: »

he was hammered by clarcam because he was stopped to a halt with townend aboard about 4 out

Maybe clarcam was just a better horse...........................


cough..........

akelly02

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Maybe clarcam was just a better horse...........................


cough..........

Absolutely

PhuckHugh2

Im not sure what ye are getting at here lads. Nobody said that Clarcam was a better horse than Vautour. It was pointed out that he disappointed before going on to be impressive at Cheltenham.

And he did not come to a standstill he lost about 3/4 lengths after pitching badly after a mistake. Perhaps he picked up an injury at that time which caused him to under perform i cant rightly remember but he was on terms with Clarcam even after that error and was then beaten about 20 lengths.

Anyway that is semantics my point was in relation to the previous poster and nothing to do with comparing abilities of horses.

jimjamcos

akelly02 wrote: »

he was hammered by clarcam because he was stopped to a halt with townend aboard about 4 out

He was still alongside Clarcam jumping the 2nd last that day before finding nothing so was definitely below his best.

WicklowBrave

With Le Richebourg out it became obvious to me. How is Us And Them 20/1? Even Arcticulum is shorter than him?? The best two mile novice chaser in Ireland now with LR and CE out of the race.

He was beaten 10 lengths by Hardline in December but has improved since then wearing a tongue strap in his next two races.

Should Duc Des Genievres, Paloma Blue, Ornua, Articulum all be shorter than him?

I wouldn’t fear Lalor, Glen Forsa or any other British horse either.

RivetingRoger

Defil will laugh at them Wickla
Was Hobbs preferred race but JP wanted arrows in both races
Path cleared for him now
Distance ideal
Course winner

Defil for the easy win!!

WicklowBrave

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Defil will laugh at them Wickla
Was Hobbs preferred race but JP wanted arrows in both races
Path cleared for him now
Distance ideal
Course winner

Defil for the easy win!!

Yeah, I didn’t mention him because I thought he might run in the JLT. If he runs in the Arkle then he should be favourite.

RivetingRoger

WicklowBrave wrote: »

Yeah, I didn’t mention him because I thought he might run in the JLT. If he runs in the Arkle then he should be favourite.

Is current fav @ 5/2 i think it is ahead of Lalor

HarshOstrich

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Defil will laugh at them Wickla
Was Hobbs preferred race but JP wanted arrows in both races
Path cleared for him now
Distance ideal
Course winner

Defil for the easy win!!

Was defi not beating by lalor at cheltenham earlier in season in a quick time.

RivetingRoger

HarshOstrich wrote: »

Was defi not beating by lalor at cheltenham earlier in season in a quick time.

Different horse since then
see last 3 runs

HarshOstrich

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Different horse since then
see last 3 runs

They where all run over a half mile longer, the run v lalor suggests he might struggle in the jumping department back over 2 miles.
Don’t think he’s quick enough anyway

RivetingRoger

HarshOstrich wrote: »

They where all run over a half mile longer, the run v lalor suggests he might struggle in the jumping department back over 2 miles.
Don’t think he’s quick enough anyway

If anything the shorter trip will suit him Ossie
Especially if the ground has good anywhere in the description
I am all in on Defil for the win and Kalashnikov ew

lemush

Can’t see his jumping holding up over what will be a frenetic two miles. If it does he’ll win.

RivetingRoger

lemush wrote: »

Can’t see his jumping holding up over what will be a frenetic two miles. If it does he’ll win.

Again lads, what are ye doubting his jumping on?
Has jumped like a stag last 2 times in particular....

RivetingRoger

For all this, he is still in the JLT and could very well still go there
Has BG anything going in the Arkle atm?

HarshOstrich

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Again lads, what are ye doubting his jumping on?
Has jumped like a stag last 2 times in particular....

On his run v lalor the race was run faster than standard, race commentary says that defi wasn’t fluent throughout, which is prob why they went up in trip as to help him jump better.
There is a bit of a question mark.
I’m between glen forsa and lalor and am coming around to lalor the more I think of his cheltenham win.
Paul Nichols told kayley Woollcott after sandown not to worry she would win the arkle, he must believe lalor is better than dynamite.

lemush

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Again lads, what are ye doubting his jumping on?
Has jumped like a stag last 2 times in particular....

No he hasn’t, he has jumped economically. He is not as quick from a to b as what you would imagine he’d need to be to win an arkle. But this is a bad arkle and an economical round could be enough considering his ability.

mohican22

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Again lads, what are ye doubting his jumping on?
Has jumped like a stag last 2 times in particular....

Agreed

lemush

mohican22 wrote: »

Agreed

If you believe he has shown he can jump well enough to win a top class two mile chase then there’s no hope.

Whiplash85

Hobbs has all but confirmed that Defi Du Seuil will go to JLT unless it turns up heavy and then Arkle might enter calculations.

RivetingRoger

Whiplash85 wrote: »

Hobbs has all but confirmed that Defi Du Seuil will go to JLT unless it turns up heavy and then Arkle might enter calculations.

Where u hearing this ?

Whiplash85

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Whiplash85 wrote: »

Hobbs has all but confirmed that Defi Du Seuil will go to JLT unless it turns up heavy and then Arkle might enter calculations.

Where u hearing this ?

His interview below from this morning.
https://mobile.twitter.com/MyPodOrYours/status/1100719769777516544

Exchange prices back it up. Geraghty must have had a word with JP. IMO it would be braindead to reroute him at this late stage.

Slattsy

I re-watched Glen Forsa's win last night.... doesn't jump well enough to win an Arkle. No chance.

akelly02

Slattsy wrote: »

I re-watched Glen Forsa's win last night.... doesn't jump well enough to win an Arkle. No chance.

i watched it last night aswell and thought the exact opposite!!

RivetingRoger

Defil staying in JLT, Arkle wide open
Hardline or Lalor for me
Kalashnikov ew

Slattsy

akelly02 wrote: »

i watched it last night aswell and thought the exact opposite!!

akelly02

Slattsy wrote: »

its what the game is all about!!

longshotvalue

Slattsy wrote: »

I re-watched Glen Forsa's win last night.... doesn't jump well enough to win an Arkle. No chance.

Watched it a few mins ago and thought feck . Hardline has opposition .

akelly02

aidankkk wrote: »

Watched it a few mins ago and thought feck . Hardline has opposition .

so you agree with me aido

HarshOstrich

akelly02 wrote: »

so you agree with me aido

Anyone who watched that race could only come away thinking he’s a great jumper and is the most likely winner on form.

Slattsy

aidankkk wrote: »

Watched it a few mins ago and thought feck . Hardline has opposition .

Thought he jumped the last two in particular atrociously. Guaranteed faller

HarshOstrich

Slattsy wrote: »

Thought he jumped the last two in particular atrociously. Guaranteed faller

This lad!!

Slattsy

HarshOstrich wrote: »

This lad!!

:cool:

OsmosisJ

it does not matter who wins this arkle cause not one of them will amount to much after it

akelly02

OsmosisJ wrote: »

it does not matter who wins this arkle cause not one of them will amount to much after it

it kinda does cos we aim to be sgnificantly richer after it