Scotland v Ireland.

Losty Dublin · 09-02-2019 2:31am #1

Murrayfield Stadium. Kick-Off 2:15PM. Live TV Coverage on VM1 and BBC 1 from 2PM

Introduction

I've always loved the Royal City of Edinburgh, almost as much as I love Dublin. There is something about the place that just gets my grá and I just don't know what.

Maybe it's the Castle, sitting almost mythically upon a granite ledge as it overlooks the city and reminds it of a government past. But hey we do better, we have a castle, and one that reminds us of a government past as well, expect in our case it is past.

Or it's literary history. Boswell, Scott and Stevenson to Welch and Rowling. But hey we do better, we have Wilde, Beckett, Joyce and Swift, Toíbín and Doyle as well.

Or maybe it's the spires of it's many Kirks, standing stiff, grimy and upright over a city as a reminder of the nations staunch religious past. Buy hey we do better, we have spires too, and they remind us of our nations staunch religious past, except in our case it is past.

Or maybe it's it's Georgian City, planned and set in wide streets and occupied by.....But hey we do better, ours is better as well.

And the same is true of rugby. For a land that has given us Dell, Hogg and Russell.... But hey we do better. A lot better....

The Teams

The Lowdown

Scotland come into this weeks game off the back of a comfortable win against a soft Italy team. The win was one of those games in which it was hard to figure out quite what was going on for the most most part, one where at times where the least worst team won . Several soft tries flattered the home team somewhat but a late flurry of grafted from the visitors asks more questions about the home defence than the home defence ought to have raised. With all of that said, this Scotland team is a better team than Scotland of a few seasons ago and given space and time, the ability to recycle ball is a joy to watch

And then comes Ireland.

Coming off the back of a loss against a smart England team who out Irished the Irish, the favourites for back to back Six Nations Titles are suddenly facing the prospect of having a season written off two weeks into February. Some players did not do well last week and the Henshaw debate will run and run, that we all know. But while Ireland were not bossed out of the game there was a certain amount of telegraphing of the Irish format by Eddie Jones that wasn't kipped until, well, it was too late to. Bygones.

Anyway, the team selection at both Team Camps reflect both injuries and tactical apathy from last weekends exploits. Two injuries in the pack see WP Nel and Sam Skinner cry off, replaced by Ryan Wilson and Simon Berghan. The return of Jonny Grey is tactical, Ben Toolis reverting to the bench, while Fraser Brown is called up to the bench as cover at hooker, a move that should help the home scrum over the 80 on what will be a cold wet pitch.

What made the brows rise most of all was the dropping of Blair Kinghorn, after his hat trick, for Sean Maitland. While much was expected of the young winger, Maitland is far more accomplished in defence and is telling, perhaps more so after the late Italian tries.

Ireland for their part have made a lot of chances tactical and GP led. Quinn Roux comes into second row in place of Devin Toner, who's season is as good as over after ankle surgery this week. His Leinster teammate, Henshaw is also injured albeit with a dead leg and is replaced by Robert Kearney, which should soothe the full back line somewhat. In the back row Jack Conan replaces CJ Stander at 8, with Sean Tullow O'Brien swapping shirts with Josh Van Der Flier while in form Chris Farrell replaces injured Gary Ringrose in the midfield.

Quinn_Roux_action-941x570.jpg?theia_smart_thumbnails_file_version=2

The Verdict

The problems with the Irish game were seem to be many last week but in truth they were few.

More than anything Ireland was found wanting for the crucial first 20 minutes as England played a total ball in hand game, choosing to run and suck in the Irish back row at breakdown time. When the time was right and the crucial back rower were tied up they ran the ball wide; when the front rows were tied up then they kicked high knowing that mauls were less likely and when the defence line was tight they kicked over and long to expose the Full Back Line. In all case they avoided scrummaging like the plague.

Crucially Scotland don't have a team to do the same thing tomorrow. In Finn Russell they have arguably the worst Fly Half in International Rugby as far as kicking goes so this minimises the risk of tactical kicking. Their back row can carry but they are not England, not close to as good as carrying and in any case their chance of getting clean ball to run is lower.

Also, this is not Italy that they are playing but a team who are rated higher than then and are an echelon over them in terms of the game today. Last week Italy got stronger while Scotland got weaker; Ireland's bench has 3 significant game changers to call on late into the day.

Fact is, Ireland's season is on the line here, and possibly their World Cup as well. There will be blood in Murrayfield and it will not be pretty. Scotland are good.

But Hey, Better do Better

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlzQLZ7nb7o

Lucy8080 · 09-02-2019 4:09am

There be gales a blowin' in Edinbrugh today, could be a game of two halves!

Happy4all · 09-02-2019 5:07am

Lucy8080 wrote: »

There be gales a blowin' in Endinbrugh today, could be a game of two halves!

It will definitely be a game of two halvesðŸ˜‰

ionadnapokot · 09-02-2019 7:06am

It might be a day for the trusty Garryowen in these conditions.
Although Hogg is good under the high ball. Any kicks not chased down collectively and he is off and running.
I expect Ireland will try to bludgeon this Scottish pack and also fire Aki & Farrell into the line.
Concerned over the lineout - blustery and Best throwing. Johnny Gray is the obvious threat without Dev.

Nevertheless I expect another Stockdale intercept try & probably a Cronin maul try. Ireland chasing a 4th try in the last 10mins.

Mantis Toboggan · 09-02-2019 7:09am

Me waters tells me that the Scots will have our number today, hopefully not.

sydthebeat · 09-02-2019 7:09am

Nice write up, but a bit disparaging to Scotland I think.
This game is on a knife edge, and with 3 losses from our last four visits I don't think you can say Ireland are an echelon over them

This could be a one score game as tight as our French game last season.

Ireland by 2

MikeCork2009 · 09-02-2019 7:27am

Just headed for the train from Newcastle to Edinburgh. It's blowing a gale here at the moment. Hopefully it'll calm down later. My heart says Ireland will turn in a performance today and my head agrees. Scotland at Murrayfield are always tough but I just feel we will win today. Ireland by 12.

Lucy8080 · 09-02-2019 7:30am

England were 3/1 to beat us last week. Heads over hearts would tell you that was overpriced/insulting.

Scotland are 5/2 to beat us at Murrayfield. Even if we manage to get a win...i can't believe the prices knocking about.

France are 6/1 to win against England. I don't think I have ever seen either team priced so high in" LE Crunch".

kuang1 · 09-02-2019 7:35am

Squeaky bum game in store.

Will SOB start? 80% expecting to hear he's withdrawn given previous trend of Irish players who miss the captain's run.

We might crawl over the line in this one. Although I'd love to have a repeat of 4 years ago.

kuang1 · 09-02-2019 7:36am

Lucy8080 wrote: »

England were 3/1 to beat us last week. Heads over hearts would tell you that was overpriced/insulting.

Scotland are 5/2 to beat us at Murrayfield. Even if we manage to get a win...i can't believe the prices knocking about.

France are 6/1 to win against England. I don't think I have ever seen either team priced so high in" LE Crunch".

5/2 where? 2/1 last night on PP.

Lucy8080 · 09-02-2019 7:44am

kuang1 wrote: »

5/2 where? 2/1 last night on PP.

Try oddschecker.

A few bookies had them at 5/2 during the week . The odds may be shortening now because of the replacements in the team announcement.

kuang1 · 09-02-2019 7:47am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4z72ib9AOQ

Hogg acted the cnut with that try attempt on 75 minutes, gesturing to the ref immediately afterwards to put his hand up. Outstanding by Heaslip to prevent the grounding. Was the difference between being champions and not as it turned out.

Would so much love Hogg and Leidlaw to get put in their box today. 2 great players with edgy (and sometimes unsporting) personas.

kuang1 · 09-02-2019 7:56am

Lucy8080 wrote: »

Try oddschecker.

A few bookies had them at 5/2 during the week . The odds may be shortening now because of the replacements in the team announcement.

Oh yeah they're available at 5/2 alright. If I was a betting man I'd think that's not bad value.
With fantasy money: €9 on Scotland to win and €1 on the draw @ 28/1.

We win and I'm thrilled, anything else and my drinks are paid for.

Frankie Cortese · 09-02-2019 7:57am

kuang1 wrote: »

Oh yeah they're available at 5/2 alright. If I was a betting man I'd think that's not bad value.
With fantasy money: €9 on Scotland to win and €1 on the draw @ 28/1.

We win and I'm thrilled, anything else and my drinks are paid for.

The draw on the handicap spread is my bet.

kuang1 · 09-02-2019 8:00am

Frankie Cortese wrote: »

The draw on the handicap spread is my bet.

That's always a prudent thing to do. These number crunchers the bookies employ get paid big bucks for a reason to come up with spreads.

ionadnapokot · 09-02-2019 8:17am

sydthebeat wrote: »

Nice write up, but a bit disparaging to Scotland I think.
This game is on a knife edge, and with 3 losses from our last four visits I don't think you can say Ireland are an echelon over them

This could be a one score game as tight as our French game last season.

Ireland by 2

We’ve lost twice in our last 4 visits.
17’ - caught cold in 1st match. Again!
15’ - Won. 30pt hammering
13’ - no Sexton or ROG. The Kidney failure!
11’ - Won. ROG skip behind post.

09’ - Won. Heaslip salutes. The Kidney transplant!
07’ - Won. ROG points
05’ - Won. Hayes try
03’ - Won. Humphreys 26 points
01’ - Lost. Murrayfield Masacare. Gatland goodbye.
Next Win was ‘85!!

sydthebeat · 09-02-2019 8:35am

ionadnapokot wrote: »

We’ve lost twice in our last 4 visits.
17’ - caught cold in 1st match. Again!
15’ - Won. 30pt hammering
13’ - no Sexton or ROG. The Kidney failure!
11’ - Won. ROG skip behind post.

09’ - Won. Heaslip salutes. The Kidney transplant!
07’ - Won. ROG points
05’ - Won. Hayes try
03’ - Won. Humphreys 26 points
01’ - Lost. Murrayfield Masacare. Gatland goodbye.
Next Win was ‘85!!

We lost against them in the 2011 rwc warm up test meaning we've lost 3 of our last four in murrayfield

09-02-2019 8:39am

28-8

ionadnapokot · 09-02-2019 8:39am

sydthebeat wrote: »

We lost against them in the 2011 rwc warm up test meaning we've lost 3 of our last four in murrayfield

I do believe they shouldn’t award Test caps for those games

Scythica · 09-02-2019 8:40am

Lads what's the consensus with SOB now? I have a fantasy team to sort and this is stopping me!

Priorities

pc7 · 09-02-2019 8:42am

Blue sky here in Edinburgh this morning, hoping rain holds off. Can’t tell if it’s windy yet. Very nervous about this one, really need to see how the team react. From a fan point any Scots we chatted too yesterday are extremely confident they have our number.

kuang1 · 09-02-2019 8:45am

pc7 wrote: »

Blue sky here in Edinburgh this morning, hoping rain holds off. Can’t tell if it’s windy yet. Very nervous about this one, really need to see how the team react. From a fan point any Scots we chatted too yesterday are extremely confident they have our number.

Sounds like a role reversal from last week so... Same outcome please!

Caranica · 09-02-2019 8:47am

For anyone going to the game, Murrayfield bag size limit is A5, not the A4 we're used to.

The Pheasant2 · 09-02-2019 8:48am

pc7 wrote: »

Blue sky here in Edinburgh this morning, hoping rain holds off. Can’t tell if it’s windy yet. Very nervous about this one, really need to see how the team react. From a fan point any Scots we chatted too yesterday are extremely confident they have our number.

Wet and very windy in Glasgow right now; it's not far from Edinburgh, hopefully the weather will move in the other direction

jr86 · 09-02-2019 9:28am

Was confident earlier in week but that has waned as the week has gone on. 7 days isn't a great turnaround and injuries are piling up. Lets be honest the Scots could afford to be half assed last Saturday, and were probably running around like spring chickens again on Monday whereas our lads were probably still struggling to get out of bed!

Theyve a tremendous knack for raising their game in murrayfield too.

Just can't shake off the feeling of write off campaign a la 2013 and 16.

Perifect · 09-02-2019 10:47am

Joe is going to try to prove we are more than a box kick team. We're going to see the ball spread wide often, the weather isn't as bad as first feared.

The Rape of Lucretia · 09-02-2019 10:58am

Perifect wrote: »

Joe is going to try to prove we are more than a box kick team. We're going to see the ball spread wide often, the weather isn't as bad as first feared.

No way José. Joe is far too shrewd a coach to go for that type of die roll.

Box kicks win games. He knows that very well, and has Rob back to add oomph to our contestible recovery chances.

Spreading the ball wide with an unproven centre parntership, several sub-international level passengers in the team, a set of Scottish backs who are very good on the counter and will be looking to spread it wide themselves, Larmour possibly starting on the wing with serious question marks over his defence experience there, exacerbated by the absence of the establish centre pair inside him, Hogg, .....

There will be no spreading here today. It would be madness.
Tight. Tight. Box kick, Box kick. Tight. Up-and-under. Contestible. Penalty. Rinse and Repeat. Win the game something like 15-10. Ship steadied. Move on to the Eternal City.

lbc2019 · 09-02-2019 11:50am

Very windy here in Murrayfield dont expect too much point kicking today

lbc2019 · 09-02-2019 11:51am

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

No way JosJoe is far too shrewd a coach to go for that type of die roll.

Box kicks win games. He knows that very well, and has Rob back to add oomph to our contestible recovery chances.

Spreading the ball wide with an unproven centre parntership, several sub-international level passengers in the team, a set of Scottish backs who are very good on the counter and will be looking to spread it wide themselves, Larmour possibly starting on the wing with serious question marks over his defence experience there, exacerbated by the absence of the establish centre pair inside him, Hogg, .....

There will be no spreading here today. It would be madness.
Tight. Tight. Box kick, Box kick. Tight. Up-and-under. Contestible. Penalty. Rinse and Repeat. Win the game something like 15-10. Ship steadied. Move on to the Eternal City.

Penalty kicking will be very unreliable today- Erik put paid to that!

Mojo Hand · 09-02-2019 12:33pm

Does anyone know what time the match is available on VM player later? Can’t see it live or record. Or will it be available online anywhere else later?

BAM! uhavechlamydia · 09-02-2019 1:03pm

SOB left the team bus looking fit as a fiddle there

griffinlee · 09-02-2019 1:04pm

Hogg is some speedster, it must be his new hair thats making him glide past defenders. i can see him scoring a few today no matter what ireland do.

Pussyhands · 09-02-2019 1:27pm

SOB won't last the game I bet. Man can't stay fit at all. Hope he has signed that contract with LI.

bilston · 09-02-2019 1:29pm

I think we will need to score a few tries to win today.

I'm not there so I don't know the extent (if any) of the bad weather. I'm not that confident of winning, however I'm expecting a reaction to last week, and I think that might help us negate/even out the Murrayfield factor, so I hoping we will just about get over the line.

Scotland 25
Ireland 28

Pussyhands · 09-02-2019 1:29pm

Perifect wrote: »

Joe is going to try to prove we are more than a box kick team. We're going to see the ball spread wide often, the weather isn't as bad as first feared.

Joe only does that against teams he knows we'll hammer up front.

Losty Dublin · 09-02-2019 1:33pm

Mojo Hand wrote: »

Does anyone know what time the match is available on VM player later? Can’t see it live or record. Or will it be available online anywhere else later?

Up from around 8, and copious repeats on VM's sister stations.

If radio is an option then it will be on RTÉ Radio 1 from 2.