Volkswagen's plan to kill off Tesla

discostu1

I haven't seen this posted apologies if it has been


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https://www.ft.com/content/a2b8cf3a-1e14-11e9-b126-46fc3ad87c65
Whenever a new electric car is unveiled, someone asks whether it is a “Tesla killer” as the Silicon Valley pioneer is still the company to beat on price, styling and battery power, despite the latest investor worries on sales.Volkswagen has been working on its Tesla killer since late 2015. But its proposed killer is not an electric car. It is the underlying chassis or platform, called MEB — the basic building block for 50 different models VW promises by 2025.Some investors and analysts think the VW chassis, which will be used for the majority of its electric vehicles, may give the German company a vital edge in the new era of battery-powered cars.“This platform is the heart and soul of everything Volkswagen is doing in the future for passenger cars,” said Johannes Buchmann, manager at FEV Consulting, an advisory group that focuses on cars.“It’s not just a design principle, a template for their new cars. It has an impact on the whole organisation, supply chain and manufacturing quality — pretty much everything.”




https://www.ft.com/content/a2b8cf3a-1e14-11e9-b126-46fc3ad87c65

Marcusm

I read the article. Very interesting read. The main thrust is that VW has spend EUR30bn building an electric car platform which they are nicknaming the sledge but is called MEB which can accommodate multiple build options. The article states that the build time and cost of the vehicles built not he platform will be significantly lower than their current MQB platform which underpins the major VW, Skoda, Audi, Seat models. Given the scale of VWs engineering and build capabilities, if they have truly managed to specie out then their scale will quickly eliminate Tesla (which is poorly capitalised and whose costs of production are much higher). VW has apparently already signed Ford as a production partner - I imagine this is an attempt to eliminate competition rather than anything else.

Mike9832

Think I heard this about 5 years ago?

Something about them being the biggest electric car producer by 2018

They talk alot VW

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1086902_volkswagen-will-be-the-biggest-electric-car-maker-in-2018-it-says

eagle eye

Yes, talk is cheap. They are trying to build excitement around it before it's even near completion.
Not surprised to hear they have partnered with Ford. The major car companies are very worried by Tesla because they already have a good name and are well ahead of the rest right now.

I'll be surprised if Tesla haven't something far better than what VW and Ford come up with by the time it hits the production lines.

Charles Babbage

eagle eye wrote: »

Yes, talk is cheap. They are trying to build excitement around it before it's even near completion.
Not surprised to hear they have partnered with Ford. The major car companies are very worried by Tesla because they already have a good name and are well ahead of the rest right now.

I'll be surprised if Tesla haven't something far better than what VW and Ford come up with by the time it hits the production lines.

Tesla might have an expensive car with some novelty, but Volkswagen and Ford could be churning out Golf and Focus class electric cars in the million.

Twenty Grand

eagle eye wrote: »

Yes, talk is cheap. They are trying to build excitement around it before it's even near completion.
Not surprised to hear they have partnered with Ford. The major car companies are very worried by Tesla because they already have a good name and are well ahead of the rest right now.

I'll be surprised if Tesla haven't something far better than what VW and Ford come up with by the time it hits the production lines.

They're in a tough business. If they build a fantastic electric car they kill Tesla, but cannabalise all their existing ICE sales and in essence end up competing with themselves.

mickdw

Twenty Grand wrote: »

They're in a tough business. If they build a fantastic electric car they kill Tesla, but cannabalise all their existing ICE sales and in essence end up competing with themselves.

Competing with all the manufacturers also and if they were to fall behind, they are dead so they really have little choice but to push on with electric if they hope to retain market share into future.
Tesla is of little significance I feel.

Twenty Grand

mickdw wrote: »

Competing with all the manufacturers also and if they were to fall behind, they are dead so they really have little choice but to push on with electric if they hope to retain market share into future.
Tesla is of little significance I feel.

In the grand scheme Tesla is a blip, but they're growing. If they can keep the ship on course and build factories in China and Europe they may become a big player.
The Leaf is the only decent electric competition right now IMO. The reset are minimum viable products from companies testing the waters.

Oafley Jones

Twenty Grand wrote: »

They're in a tough business. If they build a fantastic electric car they kill Tesla, but cannabalise all their existing ICE sales and in essence end up competing with themselves.

To quote Steve Jobs "If you don't cannibalise yourself, someone else will"

KCross

I dont get why people think this new platform is a Tesla killer.

The first car they are delivering from the platform is the VW Neo.... its basically a Golf. Thats not the same segement as any of Tesla's cars.

Even if it was direct competition, there is loads of room for VW to deliver as many EV's on this MEB platform as they wish and for Tesla to happily coexist alongside them. Its not a one or the other scenario.

Its the other manufacturers who are not investing in EV that need to watch out, not the current leader.

mickdw

Ya, while the initial vw products are not going to be tesla competitors, the platform will mean they can very easily produce a whole range of cars with great efficiency in terms of development costs of the individual models. That should mean that they will be able to bring new models more quickly and cheaply than tesla, not to mention immediate ability to mass produce at expected quality right across the vw group.
Tesla could only dream of such ability and given the numerous brands in the group, they will surely be building tesla competitor models in short time.

KCross

mickdw wrote: »

Ya, while the initial vw products are not going to be tesla competitors, the platform will mean they can very easily produce a whole range of cars with great efficiency in terms of development costs of the individual models. That should mean that they will be able to bring new models more quickly and cheaply than tesla, not to mention immediate ability to mass produce at expected quality right across the vw group.
Tesla could only dream of such ability and given the numerous brands in the group, they will surely be building tesla competitor models in short time.

Right, no arguments that VW will have scale and money to do whatever they wish... but its a bit of a leap to then say that that means Tesla will be killed once VW decide it.

VW's own plan is to produce 1m EV's per year by 2025(10% of their current output).... thats not enough to corner the EV market... There is more than enough room for both to coexist... this Tesla killer thing is nonsense, imo, and is trotted out everytime a new EV is released by one of the giants.... ref Jag iPace, Audi eTron, Porsche Taycan.... all Tesla killers! :pac:

The only thing that will kill Tesla is Tesla itself.... it needs to keep its costs under control and stay cash flow positive.

ted1

eagle eye wrote: »

Yes, talk is cheap. They are trying to build excitement around it before it's even near completion.
Not surprised to hear they have partnered with Ford. The major car companies are very worried by Tesla because they already have a good name and are well ahead of the rest right now.

I'll be surprised if Tesla haven't something far better than what VW and Ford come up with by the time it hits the production lines.

Ford doesn’t even make cars for the states anymore

ted1

Twenty Grand wrote: »

In the grand scheme Tesla is a blip, but they're growing. If they can keep the ship on course and build factories in China and Europe they may become a big player.
The Leaf is the only decent electric competition right now IMO. The reset are minimum viable products from companies testing the waters.

The Chinese factory is being built at the moment for deliveries in late 2019

mickdw

KCross wrote: »

Right, no arguments that VW will have scale and money to do whatever they wish... but its a bit of a leap to then say that that means Tesla will be killed once VW decide it.

VW's own plan is to produce 1m EV's per year by 2025(10% of their current output).... thats not enough to corner the EV market... There is more than enough room for both to coexist... this Tesla killer thing is nonsense, imo, and is trotted out everytime a new EV is released by one of the giants.... ref Jag iPace, Audi eTron, Porsche Taycan.... all Tesla killers! :pac:

The only thing that will kill Tesla is Tesla itself.... it needs to keep its costs under control and stay cash flow positive.

Tesla have issues as you say. Can they mass produce, do it efficiently and maintain quality? That is where I see their problem - Not vw as such but the general mainstream manufacturers who will all come on stream. Will an inefficient Tesla be able to compete? will they struggle and then attempt to stay high end in future building smaller numbers.

macnab

Its ironic that the tag "Tesla Killer" is being used in relation to a company that contributes to at least 5000 premature deaths each year in Europe alone.
I for one will never again buy a vehicle with a VW badge.

KCross

mickdw wrote: »

Tesla have issues as you say. Can they mass produce, do it efficiently and maintain quality?

Indeed.
Can they mass produce... Yes, they already are but obviously not to the level of VW et al but 7000 cars a week is not a small number either.

Efficiently... hmm... they are getting more efficienct but they need to improve.

Quality.... thats the big one. They have a ways to go but they are improving and ultimately I think they generally have very happy customers. There will always be some bad examples but its not like the cars are breaking down all over the place. Panel gaps etc need to improve.

mickdw wrote: »

That is where I see their problem - Not vw as such but the general mainstream manufacturers who will all come on stream.

But who is the "all"?
VW are the only ones with "big volume" EV plans.
The rest are putting out tiny numbers at the €100k price bracket. I dont see how any of the others are going to produce thousands of EV's per week.

mickdw wrote: »

Will an inefficient Tesla be able to compete? will they struggle and then attempt to stay high end in future building smaller numbers.

Tesla will never be competing at the lower end. The Model 3 will be as cheap as it gets for them and that will still be a €40k+ car.


Sure its all guesswork but I dont see this MEB platform as a Tesla killer.

ted1

KCross wrote: »

Indeed.
Can they mass produce... Yes, they already are but obviously not to the level of VW et al but 7000 cars a week is not a small number either.

Efficiently... hmm... they are getting more efficienct but they need to improve.

Quality.... thats the big one. They have a ways to go but they are improving and ultimately I think they generally have very happy customers. There will always be some bad examples but its not like the cars are breaking down all over the place. Panel gaps etc need to improve.




But who is the "all"?
VW are the only ones with "big volume" EV plans.
The rest are putting out tiny numbers at the €100k price bracket. I dont see how any of the others are going to produce thousands of EV's per week.




Tesla will never be competing at the lower end. The Model 3 will be as cheap as it gets for them and that will still be a €40k+ car.


Sure its all guesswork but I dont see this MEB platform as a Tesla killer.

Is the model y not cheaper ?

ELM327

ted1 wrote: »

Is the model y not cheaper ?

The model Y was mooted as a crossover compact, and a cheaper SUV/CUV than Model X but I don't think I read ever that it was going to be cheaper than model 3

conor_mc

There won’t be a Tesla killer. It’s not like there’s a monopoly today, so the idea that any one manufacturer would go out to “kill” Tesla isn’t really clever. In fact, if VW are going all-in on EV’s as they say, they need a healthy, successful trailblazer like Tesla. The last thing they need is Tesla going bust and leaving question marks over the viability of the EV industry they’re investing so heavily into.

This is a Darwinian moment imo, and the slowest to transition will be the ones “killed” in their own Kodak story.

unkel

mickdw wrote: »

while the initial vw products are not going to be tesla competitors, the platform will mean they can very easily produce a whole range of cars

Not just the MEB platform. Now that the giant VAG is on a massive drift towards full EV production across all its platforms, everyone else should be in fear (Tesla included)

The announcement came this week that Porsche is doubling the expected production of the Taycan for next year. That is a direct Model S competitor, with a similar price. No doubt a far superior car altogether which will show Teslas for what they are. Tesla do have a future though imho, but they need to step up their game big time. There will be no competition for the Model 3 for quite some time, they should capitalise on that.

ted1

unkel wrote: »

Not just the MEB platform. Now that the giant VAG is on a massive drift towards full EV production across all its platforms, everyone else should be in fear (Tesla included)

The announcement came this week that Porsche is doubling the expected production of the Taycan for next year. That is a direct Model S competitor, with a similar price. No doubt a far superior car altogether which will show Teslas for what they are.

Does the taycan offer he same self drive capability as Tesla’s ? I think that’s there strong point.

drunkmonkey

3 years free electricity with the Porsche Taycan, 15 minutes to 80% charge. About €70,000 less than a model S. First 20,000 already reserved, production upped to 40,000
Yea Tesla have really nothing to be worried out.
If I had a deposit on one I'd be looking for my money back before Tesla run out of it.

ELM327

ted1 wrote: »

Does the taycan offer he same self drive capability as Tesla’s ? I think that’s there strong point.

Taycan is going to be an interesting one as with 800v it can charge a lot quicker than any Tesla.
And it's cheaper than I expected, it's in model S territory and I expected it to be Roadster territory going by the specs.


800v in that size battery is a huge deal for charging speeds. Means it can take 350kW quite easily at only ~400a, which is only a few amps higher than current Tesla superchargers

KCross

drunkmonkey wrote: »

3 years free electricity with the Porsche Taycan, 15 minutes to 80% charge. About €70,000 less than a model S. First 20,000 already reserved, production upped to 40,000
Yea Tesla have really nothing to be worried out.
If I had a deposit on one I'd be looking for my money back before Tesla run out of it.

Thats just more of the same.... "Taycan is the Tesla killer".

People want choice. If only the best car in each segment was allowed to survive we wouldnt have as many manufacturers and models as we have today.

The Taycan will suit some people that doesnt mean the Model S withers on the vine.

Of course Tesla have lots to worry about but as long as they continue to improve and expand and keep costs under control there is no reason why they cant coexist with all of the "Tesla killers". :pac:

ELM327

The taycan is more likely to take customers from S class mercs and Porsche PHEVs than it is from Tesla

Gravelly

Tesla's big problem is not a product problem, it's a production problem - all their current models were designed for batch production, not mass production, and they lack the in-house expertise to design a mass-production product. VW and Ford are mass-production masters, and will relegate Tesla to a back seat in the electric car race purely by their mass-production ability. Tesla will be the Landrover Defender of the electric car world, with a product that does what it says brilliantly, but with an inability to mass-produce or change easily.
Tesla has a huge mountain to overcome to go from batch to mass production.

drunkmonkey

How are they intending to increase production while laying off staff. There still building in a tent for the love of God, I'd nearly prefer to give the local gypsy 100k and a few sauspans and tell him knock me up a Tesla under the bridge.
They need to have new models ready for production before VW and the rest launch the onslaught.
It's game over once the golf and Porsche start rolling off the production line.

drunkmonkey

ELM327 wrote: »

The taycan is more likely to take customers from S class mercs and Porsche PHEVs than it is from Tesla

Porsche would disagree with you!

Sabre Man

drunkmonkey wrote: »

3 years free electricity with the Porsche Taycan, 15 minutes to 80% charge. About €70,000 less than a model S.

Where did you get the €70,000 less than a Model S price from?

Engadget is saying $90,000 before options for the cheapest model.
https://www.engadget.com/2018/12/28/porsche-taycan-ev-prices/

KCross

Gravelly wrote: »

Tesla has a huge mountain to overcome to go from batch to mass production.

Do they need to?

I dont think anyone expects Tesla to become a 10m per year car producer.

If it continues to be profitable and produces more and more cars each year, what about it?