February 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Will edit in more later, most of you know the drill so here's the thread, predict IMT for Feb (5.3 is 1981-2010 normal), then predict MAX, MIN, PRC, SUN and bonus question will be ...

BONUS _ What will be the delightful high on 14th at Shannon (A)? (only a temperature will qualify for points on this one) :cool:

Bsal

Bsal___5.2__13.5__-4.5__85__95__BONUS_9.0

pauldry

Pauldry__5.9__14.0__-7__100__100__BONUS_11c

sdanseo

sdanseo___5.0__12.9__-8.4__082__114__BONUS_5.9

200motels

200motels 5.8 14.1 -6.4 101 102. Bonus 12.3

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ______6.0__14.2__-5.8__110__88__BONUS_9.8

sryanbruen

sryanbruen ____________ 4.6 _ 14.9 _ -6.8 _ 105 _ 90 ___ BONUS _ 6.1

Tazio

Tazio___4.8__11.5__-5.5__80__85__BONUS_10.5

dacogawa

Dacogawa__5.2__14.4__-6.4__125__82__BONUS_10.8c

rameire

Rameire___5.4__15.1__-5.5__105__105__BONUS_12.0

Joe Public

Joe Public ___4.6__13.5__-7.4__110__103__BONUS_8.7

Artane2002

Artane2002 ____________ 5.8 _ 14.7 _ -6.5 _ 110 _ 90 ___ BONUS _ 8.0

sunflower3

Sunflower3__5.5__13.0__-5.2__85__110__BONUS_9.8 c

DOCARCH

DOCARCH___5.4__14.8__-6.4__95__115__BONUS__4.8

waterways

waterways ___4.8__13.8__-7.8__115__79__7.2

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 5.3 ___ 14 ___ -4.5 ___ 110 ___ 110 ___ 10

adam240610

Adam240610_______6__14.1__-6.4__105__93_ BONUS 9

mrskinner

Skinner_____4.9______13.9_____-5.9______99______99_______9.9

dasa29

Dasa29___ 5.0 ___ 13 ___ -5.5 ___ 120 ___ 100 ___ 10

Rikand

Rikand ____ 5.0 ____ 14.5 ____ -7.0 ____ 90 ____ 120 ____ 8.0

Jpmarn

Jpmarn ___5.0__13.9__-6.5__122__105__BONUS_9.5

M.T. Cranium

MTC __ 5.2 __ 14.5 __ -7.4 __ 105 __ 120 ___ 11.1

NormaL __ 5.3 __ 15.0 __ -7.0 __ 100 __ 100 ____ 9.8

what we want actually __ -1.0 __ 5.8 __ -20.5 __ 200 __ 200 ___ -4.5

JCX BXC

JCXBXC ____________ 5.0 _ 13.9 _ -4.9_ 105 _ 95 ___ BONUS _ 6.2

John mac

john mac__5.4__13.5__-6.0__95__100__BONUS_12.0

mickger844posts

mickger844posts__5.0__13.7__-6.1__90__90__BONUS_8.3c

Jpmarn

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

what we want actually __ -1.0 __ 5.8 __ -20.5 __ 200 __ 200 ___ -4.5

No thank you. It definitely won’t suit my farm. I’ll be fine with nearly normal February weather. Maybe a bit of a cold blast and an odd fall of snow won’t do much harm.

Tae laidir

Markee Castle - 3.9 yesterday for openers.
Hope Markee Cattle nice and warm!

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for February 2019


FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max 14th Shannon


Tae laidir _______________ 6.0 _ 14.2 _ -5.8 _ 110 _ 088 ____ 9.8

Adam240610 ____________ 6.0 _ 14.1 _ -6.4 _ 105 _ 093 ____ 9.0

Pauldry _________________5.9 _ 14.0 _ -7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 11.0

Artane2002 _____________ 5.8 _ 14.7 _ -6.5 _ 110 _ 090 ____ 8.0

200motels ______________ 5.8 _ 14.1 _ -6.4 _ 101 _ 102 ___ 12.3

Sunflower3 ______________5.5 _ 13.0 _ -5.2 _ 085 _ 110 ____ 9.8

Rameire ________________ 5.4 _ 15.1 _ -5.5 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 12.0

DOCARCH _______________5.4 _ 14.8 _ -6.4 _ 095 _ 115 ____ 4.8

john mac ____ (-1) _______ 5.4 _ 13.5 _ -6.0 _ 095 _ 100 ___ 12.0

Kindred Spirit ____________5.3 _ 14.0 _ -4.5 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 10.0


NormaL ________________ 5.3 _ 15.0 _ -7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 9.8


M.T. Cranium ____________ 5.2 _ 14.5 _ -7.4 _ 105 _ 120 ___ 11.1

Dacogawa _______________5.2 _ 14.4 _ -6.4 _ 125 _ 082 ___ 10.8


Con Sensus _____________ 5.2 _ 14.0 _ -6.2 _ 103 _ 100 ____ 9.7


Bsal ___________________ 5.2 _ 13.5 _ -4.5 _ 085 _ 095 ____ 9.0

Rikand _________________ 5.0 _ 14.5 _ -7.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 8.0

JCXBXC ________________ 5.0 _ 13.9 _ -4.9 _ 105 _ 095 ____ 6.2

Jpmarn _________________5.0 _ 13.9 _ -6.5 _ 122 _ 105 ____ 9.5

mickger844posts __(-3) ___ 5.0 _ 13.7 _ -6.1 _ 090 _ 090 ____ 8.3

Dasa29 _________________5.0 _ 13.0 _ -5.5 _ 120 _ 100 ___ 10.0

sdanseo ________________ 5.0 _ 12.9 _ -8.4 _ 082 _ 114 ____ 5.9

MrSkinner ______________ 4.9 _ 13.9 _ -5.9 _ 099 _ 099 ____ 9.9

waterways ______________ 4.8 _ 13.8 _ -7.8 _ 115 _ 079 ____ 7.2

Tazio __________________ 4.8 _ 11.5 _ -5.5 _ 080 _ 085 ___ 10.5

sryanbruen ______________4.6 _ 14.9 _ -6.8 _ 105 _ 090 ____ 6.1

Joe Public _______________4.6 _ 13.5 _ -7.4 _ 110 _ 103 ____ 8.7
_____________________________________________________________

24 forecasts, median (Con Sensus) is average of 12th and 13th ranked forecasts.

welcome to Tazio, and good luck everyone.

Our group forecast consensus seems to be very close to average values for February, a bit of everything expected by most it would seem.

Tae laidir

Athenry - 5.1 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After the first week ...

IMT was on 4.2 (1.1 below average), after quite a cold first three days.

MAX so far was 12.9 (Shannon, Finner 5th) and MIN -5.1.

PRC running at 121% with all stations fairly similar. That does not include heavy rain after midnight today, probably now closer to 150%.

SUN was generous for a change after two rather dull months, a trend that began around 29th of January actually. The average was 176% of normal (1058/600).

pauldry

Nearly sure 13c was recorded at a number of stations a couple of days ago.

M.T. Cranium

Okay, I checked that and found 12.9 on 5th at Shannon and Finner. Have edited the previous post.

M.T. Cranium

New MAX is 14.0 from 12th at Finner.

Top seven forecast temps for Shannon tomorrow look to be in good shape for bonus points:

12.3 __ 200motels

12.0 __ john mac and Rameire

11.1 __ MTC

11.0 __ Pauldry

10.8 __ dacogawa

10.5 __ Tazio

Tae laidir

Shannon 11.9 yesterday for taster.

M.T. Cranium

The high at Shannon is being reported as 11.9 C for our bonus question. No new MAX (holding at 14.0 C).

Scoring for the bonus will be in the range of 3 to 10, I decided that as nobody went all that low, perhaps the full range would be unfair, so it will be groups of three, as follows:

10 __ John mac, Rameire (each +0.1) and 200motels (+0.4)

09 __ MTC (-0.8), Pauldry (-0.9), dacogawa (-1.1)

08 __ Tazio (-1.4), Kindred Spirit and Dasa29 (each -1.9).

07 __ MrSkinner (-2.0), sunflower3 and tae laidir (each -2.1) also Con and NormaL

06 __ JPmarn (-2.4), Adam240610 and Bsal (each -2.9)

05 __ Joe Public (-3.2), mickger844posts (-3.6), Artane2002 and Rikand (each -3.9)

04 __ waterways (-4.7), JCXBXC (-5.7), sryanbruen (-5.8)

03 __ sdanseo (-6.0), DOCARCH (-7.1)

---

A report on week two will appear later during my late morning return to these haunts.

Well done to the three who were very close on the mild high temperature.

rameire

Supposedly 16.5c at Phoenix Park today. Information courtesy of Met Eireann.

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1096423103444541441

M.T. Cranium

Here's a report on week two of February ...

IMT now on 5.8 (probably 6.1 after today). The second week was mild, average 7.4 was 2.1 above normal.

PRC is at 99% of normal after a somewhat dry week (most of the rainfall was on the 8th). The week came in at 77%.

SUN is now at 144% of normal. Dublin and Casement kept up the pace from week one, other locations dropped back to near or below normal, the blend of that was 111% for the week (666/600).

MAX has apparently gone on a rampage at Phoenix Park today so has changed to 16.5, MIN remains --5.1. This will mean scoring from minimum progression as our highest forecast (Rameire) was only 15.1. Your score will be 19/20 minus the number of forecasts higher than yours, and if that works out to 3/20 or lower, it could be a point or two higher again. Lowest forecast will receive 1/20.

M.T. Cranium

I almost forgot to update for three weeks of Junuary ... note spelling on that, it's not me who got the wrong month, it's Ma Nature ...

As the monthly data have not been updated since 19th, I calculated the IMT from this week's average of 9.1 which is 3.5 above normal ... that makes the IMT 6.9 to date. It is going to end up at some ridiculous number far in excess of our forecast range, maybe another 8 to match Maycember.

MAX remains 16.5 and any further rises will be (on your tax bill) subject to hoots of derision. MIN will very likely stay on -5.1.

PRC for the third week was 103% of normal, and that leaves the month almost exactly normal (so something is normal anyway).

SUN is now 127% of normal with this past week slightly below at 93% (560/600) despite best efforts of Casement and Dublin.

These precip and sun values won't change that much, PRC likely to drop a bit to around 90% for a finish, and SUN could hold or even gain a bit back.

Will be posting a March contest thread soon, I always have to hustle in this very short little month of Junuary.

Tae laidir

New max for Apruary - Mt Dillon 17.3.
(Hoot of derision)!

Jpmarn

Tae laidir wrote: »

New max for Apruary - Mt Dillon 17.3.
(Hoot of derision)!

I hope next month wouldn’t be Marchuary.

Rikand

M.T. Cranium

You must be getting some spring blooming activity with these temperatures? We sure aren't. It was -15 C at my house this morning and may be -20 tomorrow morning. This is not a part of Canada where those temperatures are common like most parts either. We can have entire winters here without going below -5.

Joe Public

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

You must be getting some spring blooming activity with these temperatures? We sure aren't. It was -15 C at my house this morning and may be -20 tomorrow morning. This is not a part of Canada where those temperatures are common like most parts either. We can have entire winters here without going below -5.

Some photos from Dec/Jan

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/ireland-in-bloom-your-pictures-from-ireland-s-mild-winter-1.3757291


Definitely Baltic at Vancover

M.T. Cranium

Report on week four and the final values for February, subject to confirmation on 4th from Monthly Summary.

IMT finished on 7.5, the fourth week was 9.4 (+3.4 relative to normal).

MAX was 17.3 and MIN --5.1

PRC finished the month at 83% with the final week only 15% of normal. West coast had slightly above normal rainfall for the month, percentages dropped further east, Casement was below half.

SUN finished around 125% with the final week managing 113% (676/600).

Will post some provisional scoring as much of that will be off the mercy rule anyway.

Good work if you guessed any of the above.

M.T. Cranium

Provisional scoring for February 2019

* IMT, MAX and MIN boosted with minimum progression rule. The highest raw score for the month (no boost) would have been 44.


FORECASTER ___________ IMT_ MAX _MIN _PRC _SUN _ Bonus __ TOTAL



Rameire ________________ 17*_ 18*_ 18*_ 08 _ 06 ___ 10 _____ 77

DOCARCH _______________17*_ 16*_ 13*_ 11 _ 08 ___ 03 _____ 68

200motels ______________ 20*_ 11*_ 13*_ 09 _ 05 ___ 10 _____ 68

Tae laidir _______________ 23*_ 12*_ 16*_ 06 _ 03 ___ 07 _____ 67

Sunflower3 ______________18*_ 01*_ 20*_ 14 _ 07 ___ 07 _____ 67

Adam240610 ____________ 23*_ 11*_ 13*_ 08 _ 04 ___ 06 _____ 65

Pauldry _________________21*_ 10*_ 08*_ 09 _ 05 ___ 09 _____ 62

Kindred Spirit ____________14*_ 10*_ 17*_ 06 _ 07 ___ 08 _____ 62

john mac ____ (-1) _______ 17*_ 04*_ 15*_ 11 _ 05 ___ 10 _62-1=61

Artane2002 _____________ 20*_ 15*_ 11*_ 06 _ 03 ___ 05 _____ 60


NormaL ________________ 14*_ 17*_ 08*_ 09 _ 05 ___ 07 _____ 60


Rikand _________________ 10*_ 14*_ 08*_ 13 _ 09 ___ 05 _____ 59

Bsal ___________________ 13*_ 04*_ 17*_ 14 _ 04 ___ 06 _____ 58



Con Sensus _____________ 13*_ 10*_ 14*_ 08 _ 05 ___ 07 _____ 57


M.T. Cranium ____________13*_ 14*_ 01*_ 08 _ 09 ___ 09 _____ 54

JCXBXC ________________ 10*_ 08*_ 19*_ 08 _ 04 ___ 04 _____ 53

MrSkinner _______________04*_ 08*_ 18*_ 10 _ 05 ___ 07 _____ 52

Dacogawa _______________13*_ 12*_ 13*_ 01 _ 01 ___ 09 _____ 49

mickger844posts __(-3) ___ 10*_ 05*_ 14*_ 13 _ 03 ___ 05 _ 50-3=47

Dasa29 _________________10*_ 01*_ 18*_ 04 _ 05 ___ 08 _____ 46

Tazio __________________ 03*_ 00*_ 17*_ 14 _ 02 ___ 08 _____ 44

Jpmarn _________________10*_ 08*_ 11*_ 02 _ 06 ___ 06 _____ 43

sryanbruen ______________01*_ 17*_ 09*_ 08 _ 03 ___ 04 _____ 42

sdanseo ________________ 10*_ 00*_ 00*_ 15 _ 08 ___ 03 _____ 36

Joe Public _______________01*_ 04*_ 02*_ 06 _ 06 ___ 05 _____ 24

waterways ______________ 03*_ 06*_ 01*_ 04 _ 01 ___ 04 _____ 19

_____________________________________________________________

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max 14th Shannon


Tae laidir _______________ 6.0 _ 14.2 _ -5.8 _ 110 _ 088 ____ 9.8

Adam240610 ____________ 6.0 _ 14.1 _ -6.4 _ 105 _ 093 ____ 9.0

Pauldry _________________5.9 _ 14.0 _ -7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 11.0

Artane2002 _____________ 5.8 _ 14.7 _ -6.5 _ 110 _ 090 ____ 8.0

200motels ______________ 5.8 _ 14.1 _ -6.4 _ 101 _ 102 ___ 12.3

Sunflower3 ______________5.5 _ 13.0 _ -5.2 _ 085 _ 110 ____ 9.8

Rameire ________________ 5.4 _ 15.1 _ -5.5 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 12.0

DOCARCH _______________5.4 _ 14.8 _ -6.4 _ 095 _ 115 ____ 4.8

john mac ____ (-1) _______ 5.4 _ 13.5 _ -6.0 _ 095 _ 100 ___ 12.0

Kindred Spirit ____________5.3 _ 14.0 _ -4.5 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 10.0


NormaL ________________ 5.3 _ 15.0 _ -7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 9.8


M.T. Cranium ____________ 5.2 _ 14.5 _ -7.4 _ 105 _ 120 ___ 11.1

Dacogawa _______________5.2 _ 14.4 _ -6.4 _ 125 _ 082 ___ 10.8


Con Sensus _____________ 5.2 _ 14.0 _ -6.2 _ 103 _ 100 ____ 9.7


Bsal ___________________ 5.2 _ 13.5 _ -4.5 _ 085 _ 095 ____ 9.0

Rikand _________________ 5.0 _ 14.5 _ -7.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 8.0

JCXBXC ________________ 5.0 _ 13.9 _ -4.9 _ 105 _ 095 ____ 6.2

Jpmarn _________________5.0 _ 13.9 _ -6.5 _ 122 _ 105 ____ 9.5

mickger844posts __(-3) ___ 5.0 _ 13.7 _ -6.1 _ 090 _ 090 ____ 8.3

Dasa29 _________________5.0 _ 13.0 _ -5.5 _ 120 _ 100 ___ 10.0

sdanseo ________________ 5.0 _ 12.9 _ -8.4 _ 082 _ 114 ____ 5.9

MrSkinner ______________ 4.9 _ 13.9 _ -5.9 _ 099 _ 099 ____ 9.9

waterways ______________ 4.8 _ 13.8 _ -7.8 _ 115 _ 079 ____ 7.2

Tazio __________________ 4.8 _ 11.5 _ -5.5 _ 080 _ 085 ___ 10.5

sryanbruen ______________4.6 _ 14.9 _ -6.8 _ 105 _ 090 ____ 6.1

Joe Public _______________4.6 _ 13.5 _ -7.4 _ 110 _ 103 ____ 8.7
_____________________________________________________________

M.T. Cranium

The Monthly Summary confirms all data used for scoring and so the table in the previous post is declared final scoring now.

Here's the annual update with the winter four seasons results added in.

Annual scoring Jan-Feb 2019, with winter seasonal scoring

The four seasons contest awards points for the highest totals, 10 for first place, then 7 for second, 6 for third, etc, down to 1 point for 8th, 9th and 10th places.


FORECASTER __________ Jan _ Feb __ 2019 TOTAL __ Dec 2018 _ Winter 2018-19 TOTAL, points


Sunflower3 _____________77 __ 67 ___ 144 _________ 39 _______ 183 _____ 1

Tae laidir ______________ 70 __ 67 ___ 137 _________ 81 _______ 218 ____ 10

Rameire _______________ 56 __ 77 ___ 133 _________ 45 _______ 178

DOCARCH ______________63 __ 68 ___ 131 _________ 70 _______ 201 _____ 6

Adam240610 ___________ 63 __ 65 ___ 128 _________ 82 _______ 210 _____ 7

MrSkinner ______________70 __ 52 ___ 122 _________ 71 _______ 193 _____ 4

Rikand ________________ 62 __ 59 ___ 121 _________ 30 _______ 151

Kindred Spirit ___________58 __ 62 ___ 120 _________ 71 _______ 191 _____ 3

JCX BXC _______________65 __ 53 ___ 118 _________ 47 _______ 165


___ Con Sensus ________ 61 __ 57 ___ 118 _________ 70 _______ 188 _____ (2)


pauldry _______________ 55 __ 62 ___ 117 _________ 78 _______ 195 _____ 5

200motels _____________48 __ 68 ___ 116 _________ 56 _______ 172

Jpmarn _______________ 69 __ 43 ___ 112 _________ 75 _______ 187 _____ 2

mickger844posts ________65 __ 47 ___ 112 _________ 73 _______ 185 _____ 1

john mac _____________ 49 __ 61 ___ 110 _________ 55 _______ 165


NormaL _______________49 __ 60 ___ 109 _________ 55 _______ 164


Artane2002 ____________46 __ 60 ___ 106 _________ 69 _______ 175

Bsal __________________47 __ 58 ___ 105 _________ 75 _______ 180 _____ 1

M.T. Cranium __________ 45 __ 54 ____ 99 _________ 57 _______ 156

waterways _____________75 __ 19 ____ 94 _________ 46 _______ 140

dasa29 _______________ 48 __ 46 ____ 94 _________ 43 _______ 137

Dacogawa _____________41 __ 49 ____ 90 _________ 54 _______ 144

Joe Public _____________ 62 __ 24 ____ 86 _________ 79 _______ 165

sryanbruen ____________41 __ 42 ____ 83 _________ 64 _______ 147

sdanseo ______________ 45 __ 36 ____ 81 _________ 67 _______ 148

YanSno _______________62 __ --- ____ 62 _________ --- ________ 62

Tazio ________________ --- __ 44 ____ 44 _________ --- ________ 44

derekon ______________ 39 __ --- ____ 39 _________ --- ________ 39

BLIZZARD7 ___________ 18 __ --- ____ 18 _________ 34 ________ 52

bazlers _______________ --- __ ---____ --- _________ 37 ________ 37
__________________________________________________________________


Congrats to sunflower3 for leading the annual scoring and also to Tae laidir, second in annual scoring and first in the winter four seasons total scoring.